Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “spatial representation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Mechanisms of Sensorimotor Adaptation to Centrifugation

We postulate that centripetal acceleration induced by centrifugation can be used as an inflight sensorimotor countermeasure to retain and/or promote appropriate crewmember responses to sustained changes in gravito-inertial force conditions. Active voluntary motion is required to promote vestibular system conditioning, and both visual and graviceptor sensory feedback are critical for evaluating internal representations of spatial orientation. The goal of our investigation is to use centrifugation to develop an analog to the conflicting visual/gravito-inertial force environment experienced during space flight, and to use voluntary head movements during centrifugation to study mechanisms of adaptation to altered gravity environments. We address the following two hypotheses: (1) Discordant canal-otolith feedback during head movements in a hypergravity tilted environment will cause a reorganization of the spatial processing required for multisensory integration and motor control, resulting in decreased postural stability upon return to normal gravity environment. (2) Adaptation to this "gravito-inertial tilt distortion" will result in a negative after-effect, and readaptation will be expressed by return of postural stability to baseline conditions. During the third year of our grant we concentrated on examining changes in balance control following 90-180 min of centrifugation at 1.4 9. We also began a control study in which we exposed subjects to 90 min of sustained roll tilt in a static (non-rotating) chair. This allowed us to examine adaptation to roll tilt without the hypergravity induced by centrifugation. To these ends, we addressed the question: Is gravity an internal calibration reference for postural control? The remainder of this report is limited to presenting preliminary findings from this study.

Paloski, W. H.↗

Tilt and Translation Motion Perception during Pitch Tilt with Visual Surround Translation

The central nervous system must resolve the ambiguity of inertial motion sensory cues in order to derive an accurate representation of spatial orientation. Previous studies suggest that multisensory integration is critical for discriminating linear accelerations arising from tilt and translation head motion. Visual input is especially important at low frequencies where canal input is declining. The NASA Tilt Translation Device (TTD) was designed to recreate postflight orientation disturbances by exposing subjects to matching tilt self motion with conflicting visual surround translation. Previous studies have demonstrated that brief exposures to pitch tilt with foreaft visual surround translation produced changes in compensatory vertical eye movement responses, postural equilibrium, and motion sickness symptoms. Adaptation appeared greatest with visual scene motion leading (versus lagging) the tilt motion, and the adaptation time constant appeared to be approximately 30 min. The purpose of this study was to compare motion perception when the visual surround translation was inphase versus outofphase with pitch tilt. The inphase stimulus presented visual surround motion one would experience if the linear acceleration was due to foreaft self translation within a stationary surround, while the outofphase stimulus had the visual scene motion leading the tilt by 90 deg as previously used. The tilt stimuli in these conditions were asymmetrical, ranging from an upright orientation to 10 deg pitch back. Another objective of the study was to compare motion perception with the inphase stimulus when the tilts were asymmetrical relative to upright (0 to 10 deg back) versus symmetrical (10 deg forward to 10 deg back). Twelve subjects (6M, 6F, 22-55 yrs) were tested during 3 sessions separated by at least one week. During each of the three sessions (out-of-phase asymmetrical, in-phase asymmetrical, inphase symmetrical), subjects were exposed to visual surround translation synchronized with pitch tilt at 0.1 Hz for a total of 30 min. Tilt and translation motion perception was obtained from verbal reports and a joystick mounted on a linear stage. Horizontal vergence and vertical eye movements were obtained with a binocular video system. Responses were also obtained during darkness before and following 15 min and 30 min of visual surround translation. Each of the three stimulus conditions involving visual surround translation elicited a significantly reduced sense of perceived tilt and strong linear vection (perceived translation) compared to pre-exposure tilt stimuli in darkness. This increase in perceived translation with reduction in tilt perception was also present in darkness following 15 and 30 min exposures, provided the tilt stimuli were not interrupted. Although not significant, there was a trend for the inphase asymmetrical stimulus to elicit a stronger sense of both translation and tilt than the out-of-phase asymmetrical stimulus. Surprisingly, the inphase asymmetrical stimulus also tended to elicit a stronger sense of peak-to-peak translation than the inphase symmetrical stimulus, even though the range of linear acceleration during the symmetrical stimulus was twice that of the asymmetrical stimulus. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the central nervous system resolves the ambiguity of inertial motion sensory cues by integrating inputs from visual, vestibular, and somatosensory systems.

O'Sullivan, Brita M.↗

Higher-Order Finite Elements for Computing Thermal Radiation

Two variants of the finite-element method have been developed for use in computational simulations of radiative transfers of heat among diffuse gray surfaces. Both variants involve the use of higher-order finite elements, across which temperatures and radiative quantities are assumed to vary according to certain approximations. In this and other applications, higher-order finite elements are used to increase (relative to classical finite elements, which are assumed to be isothermal) the accuracies of final numerical results without having to refine computational meshes excessively and thereby incur excessive computation times. One of the variants is termed the radiation sub-element (RSE) method, which, itself, is subject to a number of variations. This is the simplest and most straightforward approach to representation of spatially variable surface radiation. Any computer code that, heretofore, could model surface-to-surface radiation can incorporate the RSE method without major modifications. In the basic form of the RSE method, each finite element selected for use in computing radiative heat transfer is considered to be a parent element and is divided into sub-elements for the purpose of solving the surface-to-surface radiation-exchange problem. The sub-elements are then treated as classical finite elements; that is, they are assumed to be isothermal, and their view factors and absorbed heat fluxes are calculated accordingly. The heat fluxes absorbed by the sub-elements are then transferred back to the parent element to obtain a radiative heat flux that varies spatially across the parent element. Variants of the RSE method involve the use of polynomials to interpolate and/or extrapolate to approximate spatial variations of physical quantities. The other variant of the finite-element method is termed the integration method (IM). Unlike in the RSE methods, the parent finite elements are not subdivided into smaller elements, and neither isothermality nor other unrealistic physical conditions are assumed. Instead, the equations of radiative heat transfer are integrated numerically over the parent finite elements by use of a computationally efficient Gaussian integration scheme.

Gould, Dana C.↗

Quantifying Interannual Variability of the UTLS Ozone Using Assimilation of Satellite Data

An accurate representation of spatial and temporal variability of the Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) ozone is essential for understanding both the tropospheric ozone budget and ozone s contribution to radiative forcing. The complex, dynamically driven structure of trace gas fields in the UTLS presents a challenge to data-based and modelling studies. Small features are not fully resolved in data from limb-sounding instruments such as the Microwave Limb Sounder on EOS-Aura (the EOS-MLS), but are captured in assimilation of those data as vertical structure is added from the assimilated meteorology. This will be demonstrated using a multi-year assimilation of EOS-MLS observations in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. The results demonstrate the realism of the seasonal and year to year variability of laminar structures in the mid-latitudinal ozone field between years 2005-2007, for which independent validation data are available from the HIRDLS instrument. The analysis is done in the context of the underlying large scale dynamics. The lifetimes of most research instruments are too short for them to be used throughout the duration of long-term (at least 3 decades) reanalyses. For example, the EOS-MLS instrument has operated since mid-2004 until present. By contrast, Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet (SBUV) measurements provide continuous data since late 1978, but their vertical resolution is insufficient to represent the profile shape in the UTLS. Assimilation of these SBUV/2 observations in the GEOS-5 data assimilation system has hitherto not captured a realistic ozone structure in the UTLS, even though transport studies using GEOS-5 wind fields do show such structures. We show that careful construction of the background error covariance structure in GEOS-5 can lead to more realistic UTLS ozone fields when assimilating SBUV/2 observations. The reasoning behind this will be discussed, emphasizing the need to retain the sharp gradient of ozone concentrations across the tropopause. We analyze the UTLS ozone distributions in multi-year SBUV/2 assimilation experiments, comparing the results against the independent HIRDLSdataset and, for a longer period, with the MLS assimilation and discuss the consequences for tropospheric ozone and radiative forcing.

Wargan, K.↗

Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above pre-industrial on potential winter wheat production of China

Keeping global temperatures below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial condition and pursuing efforts toward the more ambitious 1.5 °C goal in the late 21st century was the main target from the Paris Agreement in 2015. Here we assessed the likely challenges for the China’s winter wheat production under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C increase of global temperature, with four wheat crop models (CERES-Wheat, Nwheat, WheatGrow, and APSIM-Wheat) and the latest climate projections from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project (HAPPI). Instead of using average “winter type” wheat cultivar, and same management and soil inputs for whole region, location-specific winter wheat cultivars with local agronomic information were calibrated for each of the representative wheat growing area of China, allowing a better spatial agronomic representation of the whole wheat planting area. The mean growing season temperature (GST) during the winter wheat vegetative stage was projected to increase by 0.6 to 1.4 °C for the 1.5 °C scenario, and 0.9 to 1.8 °C for the 2.0 °C scenario, while during the reproductive stage was decreased between 0 and 0.9 °C for the 1.5 °C scenario and -0.3 and 1.1 °C for the 2.0 °C scenario. Growing season duration (GSD) for the whole period was shortened by 6 to 15 days for the 1.5 °C scenario and 8 to 18 days for the 2.0 °C scenario, as a result of higher GST under global warming. Increase in GST and decrease in GSD was more obvious in the Southwest Subregion (SWS) than subregions in the north. The shortening GSD for the whole wheat growth period was mostly from the shortening vegetative period, as no appreciable difference in number of days from anthesis to maturity was found for the whole regions. Although there is variability among models, the indication is that wheat yields were projected to increase in the North Subregion (NS), the Huang-Huai Subregion (HHS), and the Middle-lower Researches of Yangzi River Subregion (MYS), but to decrease in the SWS under two warming scenarios. The effects of elevated CO2 concentration were mostly beneficial and tended to offset the negative impacts of increasing temperature at both global warming scenarios, with a rate of 7-14% yield increase per 100-ppm, except for locations with GST of baseline higher than 11 °C. Aggregating to regional wheat production, the total winter wheat production of China was projected to increase by 2.8% (1.6% to 3.0%, 25th percentile to 75th percentile) and 8.3% (7.0% to 9.6%, 25th percentile to 75th percentile) under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and most of increase was observed in the north subregions due to the largest wheat planting area. Our results will lay the foundation for developing adaptation strategies to future climate change to ensure China and global wheat supply and food security.

Winter wheat↗

Cognitive perspectives on map displays for helicopter flight

Currently accessible technologies are providing entirely new display concepts for enhancing helicopter navigation. Yet the effectiveness of such displays depends on the extent to which they are configured according to principles from research on human performance. Computer generated map displays in the present study were configured according to previous research on maps, navigational problem solving, and spatial cognition in large scale environments. Interest centered on the representation of different spatial relationships that would best support helicopter navigational problem solving. One map display emphasized the global relationships between objects in the environment. The other map showed the pilot's relationship to objects as he traveled through the environment. Twenty skilled pilots used the maps to complete several navigational tasks that occurred within a realistic simulation program tailored for helicopter navigation. Findings indicate that the type of task and mode of flight (low level or Nap of the Earth (NOE)) are important determinants of map display effectiveness.

Harwood, Kelly↗

Spatial cognition

Spatial cognition is the ability to reason about geometric relationships in the real (or a metaphorical) world based on one or more internal representations of those relationships. The study of spatial cognition is concerned with the representation of spatial knowledge, and our ability to manipulate these representations to solve spatial problems. Spatial cognition is utilized most critically when direct perceptual cues are absent or impoverished. Examples are provided of how human spatial cognitive abilities impact on three areas of space station operator performance: orientation, path planning, and data base management. A videotape provides demonstrations of relevant phenomena (e.g., the importance of orientation for recognition of complex, configural forms). The presentation is represented by abstract and overhead visuals only.

Kaiser, Mary Kister↗

Crack Detection with Lamb Wave Wavenumber Analysis

In this work, we present our study of Lamb wave crack detection using wavenumber analysis. The aim is to demonstrate the application of wavenumber analysis to 3D Lamb wave data to enable damage detection. The 3D wavefields (including vx, vy and vz components) in time-space domain contain a wealth of information regarding the propagating waves in a damaged plate. For crack detection, three wavenumber analysis techniques are used: (i) two dimensional Fourier transform (2D-FT) which can transform the time-space wavefield into frequency-wavenumber representation while losing the spatial information; (ii) short space 2D-FT which can obtain the frequency-wavenumber spectra at various spatial locations, resulting in a space-frequency-wavenumber representation; (iii) local wavenumber analysis which can provide the distribution of the effective wavenumbers at different locations. All of these concepts are demonstrated through a numerical simulation example of an aluminum plate with a crack. The 3D elastodynamic finite integration technique (EFIT) was used to obtain the 3D wavefields, of which the vz (out-of-plane) wave component is compared with the experimental measurement obtained from a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer (SLDV) for verification purposes. The experimental and simulated results are found to be in close agreement. The application of wavenumber analysis on 3D EFIT simulation data shows the effectiveness of the analysis for crack detection. Keywords: : Lamb wave, crack detection, wavenumber analysis, EFIT modeling

Tian, Zhenhua↗

Evaluation of the Ozone Fields in NASA's MERRA-2 Reanalysis

The assimilated ozone product from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), produced at NASAs Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is summarized. The reanalysis begins in 1980 with the use of retrieved partial-column ozone concentrations from a series of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) instruments on NASA and NOAA spacecraft. Beginning in October 2004, retrieved ozone profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and total column ozone from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASAs EOS Aura satellite are assimilated. While this change in data streams does lead to a discontinuity in the assimilated ozone fields in MERRA-2, making it not useful for studies in decadal (secular) trends in ozone, this choice was made to prioritize demonstrating the value NASAs high-quality research data in the reanalysis context. The MERRA-2 ozone is compared with independent satellite and ozonesonde data, focusing on the representation of the spatial and temporal variability of stratospheric and upper-tropospheric ozone. The comparisons show agreement within 10 (standard deviation of the difference) between MERRA-2 profiles and independent satellite data in most of the stratosphere. The agreement improves after 2004, when EOS Aura data are assimilated. The standard deviation of the differences between the lower-stratospheric and upper-tropospheric MERRA-2 ozone and ozonesondes is 11.2 and 24.5, respectively, with correlations of 0.8 and above. This is indicative of a realistic representation of the UTLS ozone variability in MERRA-2. After 2004, the upper tropospheric ozone in MERRA-2 shows a low bias compared to the sondes, but the covariance with independent observations is improved compared to earlier years. Case studies demonstrate the integrity of MERRA-2 analyses in representing important features such as tropopause folds.

Ozone↗

Evaluating the Impact of Model Resolutions and Cumulus Parameterization on Precipitation in NU-WRF: A Case Study in the Central Great Plains

Regional climate models are expected to exhibit improved skill at finer spatial resolutions due to improved representation of land surface heterogeneity. However, at spatial scales between 1 to 10 km (grey scales), these improvements are often illusive due to the competing benefits from spatial resolution and cumulus parameterization. This study provides insights into the impact of model resolution and cumulus parameterization on precipitation prediction in the Central Great Plains by using an object-based evaluation method. Our results show limited improvement solely from finer resolution but larger improvement without using the cumulus scheme at a 4-kmresolution. Compared to traditional evaluation methods, the object-based analysis shows that without the cumulus scheme the spatial properties of precipitation are better represented. In contrast, all model configurations show a dry bias in precipitation days and a tendency to produce widespread precipitation but with fewer hours with precipitationwhich indicates other shortcomings in the model.

Yuqi Zhang↗

Nonlinear structural dynamics analysis using a modified modal method

The procedure for predicting the nonlinear dynamic response of structural components subjected to a step loading is presented. The procedure is a modified modal method that involves a change of dependent variables from the unknown nodal degrees of freedom of the finite element model of the structure to a smaller set of generalized coordinates. This change of dependent variables uses a combination of the nonlinear static solution and some selected vibration mode shapes. The vibration mode shapes correspond to the eigenvectors obtained by solving a standard free vibration eigenvalue problem wherein the stiffness matrix is expanded about the nonlinear static solution. A strategy is also presented for determining which and how many vibration mode shapes to include in the transformation. The effect of inaccurate representation of the spatial distribution of the applied load on the nonlinear dynamic response is discussed for two classes of structural behavior. Application of the procedure to structures which exhibit a stiffening behavior and to those with a softening behavior is presented.

Knight, N. F., Jr.↗

Benchmark solutions for the galactic heavy-ion transport equations with energy and spatial coupling

Nontrivial benchmark solutions are developed for the galactic heavy ion transport equations in the straightahead approximation with energy and spatial coupling. Analytical representations of the ion fluxes are obtained for a variety of sources with the assumption that the nuclear interaction parameters are energy independent. The method utilizes an analytical LaPlace transform inversion to yield a closed form representation that is computationally efficient. The flux profiles are then used to predict ion dose profiles, which are important for shield design studies.

Ganapol, Barry D.↗

Fast neural solution of a nonlinear wave equation

A neural algorithm for rapidly simulating a certain class of nonlinear wave phenomena using analog VLSI neural hardware is presented and applied to the Korteweg-de Vries partial differential equation. The corresponding neural architecture is obtained from a pseudospectral representation of the spatial dependence, along with a leap-frog scheme for the temporal evolution. Numerical simulations demonstrated the robustness of the proposed approach.

Toomarian, Nikzad↗

A Search for Giant Convection Cells on the Sun

Giant convection cells (slow, long-lived cellular flows in the Sun's convection zone with typical diameters greater than about 100,000 km) have been the subject of many searches over the last 30 years. If such flows exist, they should play a key role in structuring the Sun's large scale magnetic field and in driving the large scale axisymmetric flows: the differential rotation and meridional circulation. Detailed observations of the flows in these cells may also allow us to better predict future magnetic field configurations and the solar activity associated with them. Line-of-sight velocity data from the Michelson Doppler Interferometer on the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory provides us with new opportunities to search for giant cells. This data is free of any atmospheric distortion and has been obtained continuously without any day/night gaps for more than two months at a time. These two-month datasets are important because giant cells are expected to have lifetimes somewhat longer that the Sun's 27 day rotation period. Any reappearance of a flow pattern after 27 days would be an important confirmation of the existence of these cells. The approach taken in this search is to separate the giant cell velocity signal from the other, stronger velocity signals by using a spherical harmonic representation of the spatial structures and a fourier decomposition of the temporal behavior. Any giant cell signal should be characterized by low spatial wavenumbers with temporal frequencies appropriate to the solar rotation of these patterns.

Hathaway, David H.↗

The Zodiacal Emission Spectrum as Determined by COBE and its Implications

We combine observations from the DIRBE and FIRAS instruments on the COBE satellite to derive an annually-averaged spectrum of the zodiacal cloud in the 10 to 1000 micron wavelength region. The spectrum exhibits a break at approx. 150 microns which indicates a sharp break in the dust size distribution at a radius of about 30 microns The spectrum can be fit with a single blackbody with a lambda(exp -2) emissivity law beyond 150 microns and a temperature of 240 K. We also used a more realistic characterization of the cloud to fit the spectrum, including a distribution of dust temperatures, representing different dust compositions and distances from the sun, as well as a realistic representation of the spatial distribution of the dust. We show that amorphous carbon and silicate dust with respective temperatures of 280 and 274 K at 1 AU, and size distributions with a break at grain radii of 14 and 32 microns, can provide a good fit to the average zodiacal dust spectrum. The total mass of the zodiacal cloud is 2 to 11 Eg (Eg=10(exp 18) g), depending on the grain composition. The lifetime of the cloud, against particle loss by Poynting- Robertson drag and the effects of solar wind, is about 10(exp 5) yr. The required replenishment rate is approx. 10(exp 14) g/yr. If this is provided by asteroid belt alone, the asteroids lifetime would be approx. 3 x 10(exp 10) yr. But comets and Kuiper belt objects may also contribute to the zodiacal cloud.

Fixsen, D. J.↗

Anisotropic Developments for Homogeneous Shear Flows

The general decomposition of the spectral correlation tensor R(sub ij)(k) by Cambon et al. (J. Fluid Mech., 202, 295; J. Fluid Mech., 337, 303) into directional and polarization components is applied to the representation of R(sub ij)(k) by spherically averaged quantities. The decomposition splits the deviatoric part H(sub ij)(k) of the spherical average of R(sub ij)(k) into directional and polarization components H(sub ij)(sup e)(k) and H(sub ij)(sup z)(k). A self-consistent representation of the spectral tensor in the limit of weak anisotropy is constructed in terms of these spherically averaged quantities. The directional polarization components must be treated independently: models that attempt the same representation of the spectral tensor using the spherical average H(sub ij)(k) alone prove to be inconsistent with Navier-Stokes dynamics. In particular, a spectral tensor consistent with a prescribed Reynolds stress is not unique. The degree of anisotropy permitted by this theory is restricted by realizability requirements. Since these requirements will be less severe in a more accurate theory, a preliminary account is given of how to generalize the formalism of spherical averages to higher expansion of the spectral tensor. Directionality is described by a conventional expansion in spherical harmonics, but polarization requires an expansion in tensorial spherical harmonics generated by irreducible representations of the spatial rotation group SO(exp 3). These expansions are considered in more detail in the special case of axial symmetry.

Cambon, Claude↗

Impact of Optimized land Surface Parameters on the Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations of Dry and Wet Extremes

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to the land cover and soil type mapping of the observations and the full domain. The impact of the calibrated parameters on the a) spin up of land surface states used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture fluxes of the coupled (LIS-WRF) simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather, PBL budgets, and precipitation along with L-A coupling diagnostics. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, normal) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity (e.g.,. relating to the representation of the spatial dependence of parameters) and the feasibility of calibrating to multiple observational datasets are also discussed.

Kumar, Sujay↗

The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of the Soil Moisture Balance During the Late Pre-Hispanic, Colonial, and Modern Eras

Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE-2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5deg latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34degN and 75-120degW using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944-1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920-1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Ano de Hambre in 1785-1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909-1910. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time-stable correlations than computed for either the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The extended Multivariate ENSO Index is most highly correlated with reconstructed scPDSI over northern Mexico, where warm events favor moist conditions during the winter, spring, and early summer. This ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico has been strong over the past 150 years, but it has been comparatively weak and non-stationary in the MXDA over central and southern Mexico where eastern tropical Pacific and Caribbean/tropical Atlantic SSTs seem to be more important. The ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico is weaker in the available instrumental PDSI, but analyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense "All Mexico" droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades.

El Nino↗