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At least 55 records · Page 3

ENSO Diversity Simulated in a Revised Cane-Zebiak Model

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon features rich sea surface temperature (SST) spatial pattern variations dominated by the Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP) patterns during its warm phase. Understanding such ENSO pattern diversity has been a subject under extensive research activity. To provide a framework for unveiling the fundamental dynamics of ENSO diversity, an intermediate coupled model based on the Cane-Zebiak-type framework, named RCZ, is established in this study. Compared with the original Cane-Zebiak model, RCZ consists of revised model formulation and well-tuned parameterization schemes. All model components are carefully validated against the observations via the standalone mode, in which the observed anomalous SST (wind stress) forcing is prescribed to drive the atmospheric (oceanic) component. The superiority of RCZ’s model components over those in the original Cane-Zebiak model is evidenced by their better performance in simulating the observations. Coupled simulation with RCZ satisfactorily reproduces aspects of the observed ENSO characteristics, including the spatial pattern, phase-locking, amplitude asymmetry, and, particularly, ENSO diversity/bi-modality. RCZ serves as a promising tool for studying dynamics of ENSO diversity as it resolves most of the relevant processes proposed in the literature, including atmospheric nonlinear convective heating, oceanic nonlinear dynamical heating, and the ENSO/westerly wind burst interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Spatial Dipole Pattern in Asian Aerosol Changes on East Asian Summer Monsoon

Since China implemented the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2013, the aerosol emissions in East Asia have been greatly reduced, while emissions in South Asia have continued to increase. This has led to a dipole pattern of aerosol emissions between South Asia and East Asia. We report the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) responses to the dipole changes in aerosol emissions during 2013–17 are investigated using the atmosphere model of Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We show that decreases in East Asian emissions alone lead to a positive aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 1.59 (±0.97) W m -2 over central-eastern China (25°–40°N, 105°–122.5°E), along with a 0.09 (±0.07)°C warming in summer during 2013–17. The warming intensified the land–sea thermal contrast and increased the rainfall by 0.32 (±0.16) mm day -1 . When considering both the emission reductions in East Asia and increases in South Asia, the ERF is increased to 3.39 (±0.89) W m -2 , along with an enhanced warming of 0.20 (±0.08)°C over central-eastern China, while the rainfall insignificant decreased by 0.07 (±0.16) mm day -1 . It is due to the westward shift of the strengthened western Pacific subtropical high, linked to the increase in black carbon in South Asia. Based on multiple EASM indices, the reductions in aerosol emissions from East Asia alone increased the EASM strength by almost 5%. Considering the effect of the westward shift of WPSH, the dipole changes in emissions together increased the EASM by 5%–15% during 2013–17, revealing an important role of South Asian aerosols in changing the East Asian climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Spatial Dipole Pattern in Asian Aerosol Changes on East Asian Summer Monsoon

Since China implemented the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2013, the aerosol emissions in East Asia have been greatly reduced, while emissions in South Asia have continued to increase. This has led to a dipole pattern of aerosol emissions between South Asia and East Asia. Here, the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) responses to the dipole changes in aerosol emissions during 2013–17 are investigated using the atmosphere model of Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We show that decreases in East Asian emissions alone lead to a positive aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 1.59 (±0.97) W m -2 over central-eastern China (25°–40°N, 105°–122.5°E), along with a 0.09 (±0.07)°C warming in summer during 2013–17. The warming intensified the land–sea thermal contrast and increased the rainfall by 0.32 (±0.16) mm day -1 . When considering both the emission reductions in East Asia and increases in South Asia, the ERF is increased to 3.39 (±0.89) W m -2 , along with an enhanced warming of 0.20 (±0.08)°C over central-eastern China, while the rainfall insignificant decreased by 0.07 (±0.16) mm day -1 . It is due to the westward shift of the strengthened western Pacific subtropical high, linked to the increase in black carbon in South Asia. Based on multiple EASM indices, the reductions in aerosol emissions from East Asia alone increased the EASM strength by almost 5%. Finally, considering the effect of the westward shift of WPSH, the dipole changes in emissions together increased the EASM by 5%–15% during 2013–17, revealing an important role of South Asian aerosols in changing the East Asian climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of Production Bias on Radiation-Induced Segregation in Ni-Cr Alloys

We present an in-depth investigation into the Radiation-Induced Segregation (RIS) phenomenon in Ni-Cr alloys. All the pivotal factors affecting RIS such as surface’s absorption efficiency, grain size, production bias, dose rate, temperature, and sink density were systematically studied. Through comprehensive simulations, the individual and collective impacts of these factors were analyzed, enabling a refined understanding of RIS. A notable finding was the significant influence of production bias on point defects’ interactions with grain boundaries/surfaces, thereby playing a crucial role in RIS processes. Production bias alters the neutrality of these interactions, leading to a preferential absorption of one type of point defect by the boundary and consequent establishment of distinct surface-mediated patterns of point defects. These spatial patterns further result in non-monotonic spatial profiles of solute atoms near surfaces/grain boundaries, corroborated by experimental observations. In particular, a positive production bias, signifying a higher production rate of vacancies over interstitials, drives more Cr depletion at the grain boundary. Moreover, a temperature-dependent production bias must be considered to recover the experimentally reported dependence of RIS on temperature. The severity of radiation damage and RIS becomes more pronounced with increased production bias, dose rate, and grain size, while high temperatures or sink density suppress the RIS severity. Model predictions were validated against experimental data, showcasing robust qualitative and quantitative agreements. The findings pave the way for further exploration of these spatial dependencies in subsequent studies, aiming to augment the comprehension and predictability of RIS processes in alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Controls and variability of soil respiration temperature sensitivity across China

Understanding the temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) of soil respiration is critical for benchmarking the potential intensity of regional and global terrestrial soil carbon fluxes-climate feedbacks. Although field observations have demonstrated the strong spatial heterogeneity of Q 10 , a significant knowledge gap still exists regarding to the factors driving spatial and temporal variabilities of Q 10 at regional scales. Here, therefore, we used a machine learning approach to predict Q 10 from 1994 to 2016 with a spatial resolution of 1 km across China from 515 field observations at 5 cm soil depth using climate, soil and vegetation variables. Predicted Q 10 varied from 1.54 to 4.17, with an area-weighted average of 2.52. There was no significant temporal trend for Q 10 (p = 0.32), but annual vegetation production (indicated by normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) was positively correlated to it (p < 0.01). Spatially, soil organic carbon (SOC) was the most important driving factor in 62 % of the land area across China, and varied greatly, demonstrating soil controls on the spatial pattern of Q 10 . These findings highlighted different environmental controls on the spatial and temporal pattern of soil respiration Q 10 , which should be considered to improve global biogeochemical models used to predict the spatial and temporal patterns of soil carbon fluxes to ongoing climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global fire modelling and control attributions based on the ensemble machine learning and satellite observations

Contemporary fire dynamics is one of the most complex and least understood land surface phenomena. Global fire controls related to climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic activity are usually intertwined, and difficult to disentangle in a quantitative way. Here, we leveraged an ensemble of five machine learning (ML) models and multiple satellite-based observations to conduct global fire modeling for three fire metrics (burned area, fire number, and fire size), and quantified driving mechanisms underlying annual fire changes in a spatially resolved manner for the period 2003–2019. Ensemble learning is a meta-approach that combines multiple ML predictions to improve accuracy, robustness, and generalization performance. We found that the optimized ensemble ML well reproduced annual dynamics of global burned area (R 2 = 0.90, P < 0.001), total fire numbers (R 2 = 0.86, P < 0.001), and averaged fire size (R 2 = 0.70, P < 0.001). Additionally, the ensemble ML captured key spatial patterns of multi-year mean magnitudes, annual variabilities, anomalies, and trends for different fire metrics. Our ML-based fire attributions further highlighted the dominant role of enhanced anthropogenic activity in reducing global burned area (–1.9 Mha/yr, P < 0.01), followed by climate control (–1.3 Mha/yr, P < 0.01) and insignificant positive vegetation control (0.4 Mha/yr, P = 0.60). Spatially, climate dominated a much larger burned area (53.7%) than human (23.4%) or vegetation control (22.9%); however, the counteracting effects from regional wetting and drying trends weakened the net climate impacts on global burned area. The fire number and fire size exhibited similar spatial control patterns with burned area; globally, however, fire number tended to be more affected by climate while fire size more influenced by human activities. Overall, our study confirmed the feasibility and efficiency of ensemble ML in global fire modeling and subsequent control attributions, providing a better understanding of contemporary fire regimes and contributing to robust fire projections in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A spatiotemporally explicit and scalable indicator of intact lands across the conterminous United States, 1986–2023

Globally, ecologically intact areas are increasingly scarce. Agricultural expansion into previously uncultivated areas drives the loss of intact lands that might otherwise exhibit high levels of ecological integrity. Thus, the absence of cultivation can be an indicator of intact lands as measured from remote sensing data and thematic maps. Our objective for this study was to develop and compare tractable approaches based on remotely sensed satellite data to map spatial patterns of potentially intact lands across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). Using annual cultivation probabilities derived from satellite observations, we classified and mapped potentially intact lands across CONUS from 1986 to 2023 at 30 m resolution. We created three maps, first by applying a constant cultivation probability threshold across CONUS, second by varying the threshold state-by-state to maximize state-level overall accuracies, and third by equalizing the state-level user's and producer's accuracies to minimize classification bias. Validation against 800,000+ independent ground samples resulted in CONUS-level overall accuracies ≥85% for the roughly 660 million ha of potentially intact land. Map accuracy varied with the proportion of potentially intact lands across regions, with the Pacific-Mountain and Great Plains regions exhibiting the highest accuracies, while Eastern CONUS exhibited a greater mix of potentially intact and non-intact lands and more moderate map accuracies. These novel maps and approaches can be adapted to different spatiotemporal extents to support conservation and production decisions ranging from species and ecosystems protection to reducing land conversion and climate mitigation.

agriculture↗

Evaluating the effects of heatwave events on hydrological processes in the contiguous United States (2003–2022)

Extreme heat and drought conditions are affecting water availability in many regions worldwide, leading to negative impacts on human societies, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, current research lacks comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis examining the interplay between multiple hydrological factors and heatwave events, especially in the context of climate change. This research broadly pertains to understanding the dynamics of hydrological factors and their potential responses to heatwave during warm seasons across the contiguous United States for the period from 2003 to 2022. Utilizing data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), we analyzed surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, Groundwater Storage (GWS), Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), and Total Water Storage (TWS) to discern annual patterns and the impacts of heatwave. Further, the spatial patterns of heatwave highlighted a higher occurrence in the western, central, and northeastern U.S., with longer average durations in the western and south-central regions. These events are predominantly dry, characterized by low Relative Humidity (RH), except in the southeastern U.S., where heatwave coincide with high RH levels. Post-heatwave analysis indicated a reduction in GWS, TWS, RZSM, and ET, alongside an increase in surface runoff, RH, and precipitation. An in-depth examination of rainfall and temperature dynamics during heatwave revealed weak correlations between rainfall and temperature, as well as between rainfall and heatwave duration, highlighting the complex nature of these interactions. The study also found an enhanced probability of rainfall following heatwave, particularly in the eastern regions, drawing attention to the potential for increased flood risks post-heatwave. Our findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge on the impacts of heatwave on hydrological factors, providing valuable insights for climate change adaptation and water resource management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Middle to Late Holocene Sea Surface Temperature and Productivity Changes in the Northeast Pacific

Variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and primary productivity in the northeast Pacific have far‐reaching implications. In addition to influencing the regional and global temperature and hydroclimate, these conditions also control marine ecosystems and their services, which subsequently impact regional economies. Yet, our understanding of the variability and controls of northeast Pacific SST and productivity on timescales exceeding observational records remains limited. Here, we use marine sediment records from seven locations, spanning 25.2°N–59.6°N, in the northeast Pacific to characterize the millennial‐scale variability of SST and productivity from 9,000 to 1,000 years BP. We explore the dynamics of their spatiotemporal evolution and compare these data with transient climate model outputs to identify potential drivers. Through a heat budget analysis and optimal fingerprinting analysis, we characterize the spatial pattern of forcings. We find that SST varied spatially in the northeast Pacific, with higher latitudes exhibiting greater magnitude changes than lower latitudes, which differs from previous work suggesting regional synchronicity and coherence during the Holocene. Our analysis did not find evidence for coherent variability of primary producer community nor carbon export, highlighting the difficulty of identifying the complex interactions between environmental conditions, producers, and carbon export. Model‐proxy disagreement demonstrates the need for higher resolution model frameworks, but shows nonetheless that observed variability in the proxy records can be explained by a combination of greenhouse gas and orbital forcing. Here we suggest that the complex SST variations and marine ecosystem responses to forced changes are important factors that can drive disagreements in model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Deep Learning Modeling Framework to Capture Mixing Patterns in Reactive-Transport Systems

Prediction and control of chemical mixing are vital for many scientific areas such as subsurface reactive transport, climate modeling, combustion, epidemiology, and pharmacology. Due to the complex nature of mixing in heterogeneous and anisotropic media, the mathematical models related to this phenomenon are not analytically tractable. Numerical simulations often provide a viable route to predict chemical mixing accurately. However, contemporary modeling approaches for mixing cannot utilize available spatial-temporal data to improve the accuracy of the future prediction and can be compute-intensive, especially when the spatial domain is large and for long-term temporal predictions. To address this knowledge gap, in this work we will present in this paper a deep learning (DL) modeling framework applied to predict the progress of chemical mixing under fast bimolecular reactions. This framework uses convolutional neural networks (CNN) for capturing spatial patterns and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for forecasting temporal variations in mixing. By careful design of the framework—placement of non-negative constraint on the weights of the CNN and the selection of activation function, the framework ensures non-negativity of the chemical species at all spatial points and for all times. Our DL-based framework is fast, accurate, and requires minimal data for training. The time needed to obtain a forecast using the model is a fraction (≈ O(-6)) of the time needed to obtain the result using a high-fidelity simulation. To achieve an error of 10% (measured using the infinity norm) for capturing local-scale mixing features such as interfacial mixing, only 24% to 32% of the sequence data for model training is required. To achieve the same level of accuracy for capturing global-scale mixing features, the sequence data required for model training is 64% to 70% of the total spatial-temporal data. Hence, the proposed approach—a fast and accurate way to forecast long-time spatial-temporal mixing patterns in heterogeneous and anisotropic media—will be a valuable tool for modeling reactive-transport in a wide range of applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

End-to-End Automated Segmentation Framework for Four-Dimensional Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy Data

Four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy (4D-STEM) is powerful for rapidly characterizing arrays of nanoparticles produced via high-throughput synthesis. However, such 4D-STEM datasets typically contain thousands of nanoparticles, each characterized by thousands of diffraction patterns spatially distributed across the nanoparticle, necessitating efficient and comprehensive analysis. We propose an end-to-end segmentation framework to automatically segment each nanoparticle into regions with distinct composition/orientation of crystal grains, using only the 4D-STEM data. Bragg disk information is extracted in a physics-informed manner from the diffraction patterns at each spatial location and combined with the real space coordinates to form feature vectors. These feature vectors are then used as inputs to a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to segment the nanoparticle into distinct regions. We also develop two visualization tools based on the GMM outputs to infer the interface transition and the degree of superposition. Our framework comprehensively integrates machine learning tools and physics knowledge, and provides a basis for substantially compressing enormous 4D-STEM datasets, e.g., by replacing the full 4D-STEM dataset for each nanoparticle with only a single set of Bragg disk features for each distinct crystal grain identified in the nanoparticle. In this article, we demonstrate the power of our framework by presenting results for real, complex datasets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Climate Leads to Reversed Latitudinal Changes in Chinese Flood Peak Timing

Changes in river floods under a changing climate are of worldwide concerns, but relevant knowledge is limited especially over the East Asia monsoon region. Here we examine changes in flood peak timing based on the most comprehensive flood dataset to date across China during 1961-2017. The temporal shifts of Chinese flood peak timing range from -19.0 days earlier to +14.0 days later per decade. Earlier flood occurrences are mainly observed in northern China, with delayed flood occurrences in the south. The spatial pattern of reversed latitudinal changes in flood timing leads to growing spatial extents of concurrent river floods over China. Soil moisture plays an important role in modulating such changes, despite precipitation determines the climatological mean dates of flood occurrences. Our results highlight a strong climate signal on the changes in flood timing over China, and call for coordinated efforts in alleviating expanding flood hazards related to the changes in flood timing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Meta-analysis of North American Arctic and boreal aboveground biomass datasets: assessing accuracy, dynamics, and similarities

The North American arctic and boreal regions (ABRs) are rapidly warming and experiencing intensifying disturbances. Accurately quantifying aboveground biomass (AGB) is critical for understanding the impacts of these changes on the carbon cycle and for designing climate change mitigation strategies. Several AGB maps have been developed for the North American ABRs, including recent contributions from National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) campaign. However, these maps differ widely in training data, methodology, and resulting AGB density estimates. Presently, a comprehensive comparative evaluation is lacking, making it difficult for users to select datasets suited to their research or management needs. Here, in this study, we conducted a comparative analysis of nine AGB density datasets across North American ABRs, specifically for Alaska and Canada. We (1) summarized AGB by ecoregion and Canadian provinces, (2) evaluated their accuracy against field-based measurements, (3) analyzed spatial and temporal similarities among datasets, and (4) assessed their ability to capture disturbance (fire and harvest) impacts on AGB. We found substantial variation in regional and local AGB estimates across datasets, with overall accuracy ranging from R 2 = 0.25–0.62 and Bias% from −47.8% to 69.9% when validated against field plots. Despite these differences, most datasets have comparatively consistent spatial patterns in AGB (r > 0.8 for most cases). In contrast, agreement on the temporal patterns of AGB change is generally low. We found datasets with spatial resolutions ⩽300 m are capable of capturing disturbance impacts on AGB dynamics, though sensitivity varies across products. Our findings and dataset summary provide guidance for selecting appropriate AGB datasets for different applications within our study area. Our analysis also highlights the need to decrease map bias and increase capability to detect temporal change to decrease uncertainty of AGB datasets potentially by using training data which is representative of major plant functional types within the mapped area.

ABoVE↗

Disentangling Alzheimer’s disease neurodegeneration from typical brain ageing using machine learning

Abstract Neuroimaging biomarkers that distinguish between changes due to typical brain ageing and Alzheimer’s disease are valuable for determining how much each contributes to cognitive decline. Supervised machine learning models can derive multivariate patterns of brain change related to the two processes, including the Spatial Patterns of Atrophy for Recognition of Alzheimer’s Disease (SPARE-AD) and of Brain Aging (SPARE-BA) scores investigated herein. However, the substantial overlap between brain regions affected in the two processes confounds measuring them independently. We present a methodology, and associated results, towards disentangling the two. T1-weighted MRI scans of 4054 participants (48–95 years) with Alzheimer’s disease, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or cognitively normal (CN) diagnoses from the Imaging-based coordinate SysTem for AGIng and NeurodeGenerative diseases (iSTAGING) consortium were analysed. Multiple sets of SPARE scores were investigated, in order to probe imaging signatures of certain clinically or molecularly defined sub-cohorts. First, a subset of clinical Alzheimer’s disease patients (n = 718) and age- and sex-matched CN adults (n = 718) were selected based purely on clinical diagnoses to train SPARE-BA1 (regression of age using CN individuals) and SPARE-AD1 (classification of CN versus Alzheimer’s disease) models. Second, analogous groups were selected based on clinical and molecular markers to train SPARE-BA2 and SPARE-AD2 models: amyloid-positive Alzheimer’s disease continuum group (n = 718; consisting of amyloid-positive Alzheimer’s disease, amyloid-positive MCI, amyloid- and tau-positive CN individuals) and amyloid-negative CN group (n = 718). Finally, the combined group of the Alzheimer’s disease continuum and amyloid-negative CN individuals was used to train SPARE-BA3 model, with the intention to estimate brain age regardless of Alzheimer’s disease-related brain changes. The disentangled SPARE models, SPARE-AD2 and SPARE-BA3, derived brain patterns that were more specific to the two types of brain changes. The correlation between the SPARE-BA Gap (SPARE-BA minus chronological age) and SPARE-AD was significantly reduced after the decoupling (r = 0.56–0.06). The correlation of disentangled SPARE-AD was non-inferior to amyloid- and tau-related measurements and to the number of APOE ε4 alleles but was lower to Alzheimer’s disease-related psychometric test scores, suggesting the contribution of advanced brain ageing to the latter. The disentangled SPARE-BA was consistently less correlated with Alzheimer’s disease-related clinical, molecular and genetic variables. By employing conservative molecular diagnoses and introducing Alzheimer’s disease continuum cases to the SPARE-BA model training, we achieved more dissociable neuroanatomical biomarkers of typical brain ageing and Alzheimer’s disease.

Hwang, Gyujoon↗

Hierarchical Composites Patterned via 3D Printed Cellular Fluidics

Additive manufacturing of freeform structures containing multiple materials with deterministic spatial arrangement and interactions remains a challenge for most 3D printing processes, due to complex fabrication tool requirements and limitations in printability of some material classes. Here, in this paper, a versatile method is reported to produce architected composites using the concept of cellular fluidics, in which lattices of unit cells are used as templating scaffolds to guide flowable infill materials in a programmed spatial pattern, upon which they are cured in place to produce a deterministically ordered multimaterial solid. The lattice design relies on the unit cell size, type, strut diameter, surface wetting, and distribution of cellular structures to control liquid flow and retention. Individual unit cells are tuned to achieve reliable infilling and combined into higher-order architectures to achieve multiscale composite materials with disparate mechanical properties, including those considered non-printable. Lattice design considerations for leveraging capillary phenomena and demonstrate several methods of patterning polymers in 3D-printed cellular fluidic structures are presented. The concept of tuning the compressive response of an architected composite using a flexible-elastomer as the lattice and a stiff-epoxy as the infill material is illustrated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The geometry of the ICRF-induced wave–SOL interaction. A multi-machine experimental review in view of the ITER operation

As a part of ITPA-Integrated Operational Scenario activities, this contribution reviews recent experimental characterizations of radio-frequency (RF)-induced scrape-off layer (SOL) modifications of various tokamaks worldwide and of the LArge Plasma Device at UCLA. The phenomenology, as observed using a large variety of measurement techniques, is consistent with expectations from RF sheath rectification. Emphasis is then put on the complex three-dimensional (3D) spatial patterns of the RF–SOL interaction, in relation to the magnetic topology and the spatial distribution of RF currents over the metallic structures surrounding the RF wave launchers. Dependence on the local plasma parameters in the antenna vicinity is also briefly addressed. The final part discusses implications for future devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Direct electron beam patterning of electro-optically active PEDOT:PSS

The optical and electronic tunability of the conductive polymer poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene):poly(styrene sulfonate) (PEDOT:PSS) has enabled emerging applications as diverse as bioelectronics, flexible electronics, and micro- and nano-photonics. High-resolution spatial patterning of PEDOT:PSS opens up opportunities for novel active devices in a range of fields. However, typical lithographic processes require tedious indirect patterning and dry etch processes, while solution-processing methods such as ink-jet printing have limited spatial resolution. Here, we report a method for direct write nano-patterning of commercially available PEDOT:PSS through electron-beam induced solubility modulation. The written structures are water stable and maintain the conductivity as well as electrochemical and optical properties of PEDOT:PSS, highlighting the broad utility of our method. We demonstrate the potential of our strategy by preparing prototypical nano-wire structures with feature sizes down to 250 nm, an order of magnitude finer than previously reported direct write methods, opening the possibility of writing chip-scale microelectronic and optical devices. We finally use the high-resolution writing capabilities to fabricate electrically-switchable optical diffraction gratings. We show active switching in this archetypal system with >95 % contrast at CMOS-compatible voltages of +2 V and -3 V, offering a route towards highly-miniaturized dynamic optoelectronic devices.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Surface and subsurface oceanographic features drive forage fish distributions and aggregations: Implications for prey availability to top predators in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

Abstract Forage fishes are a critical food web link in marine ecosystems, aggregating in a hierarchical patch structure over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Surface‐level forage fish aggregations (FFAs) represent a concentrated source of prey available to surface‐ and shallow‐foraging marine predators. Existing survey and analysis methods are often imperfect for studying forage fishes at scales appropriate to foraging predators, making it difficult to quantify predator–prey interactions. In many cases, general distributions of forage fish species are known; however, these may not represent surface‐level prey availability to predators. Likewise, we lack an understanding of the oceanographic drivers of spatial patterns of prey aggregation and availability or forage fish community patterns. Specifically, we applied Bayesian joint species distribution models to bottom trawl survey data to assess species‐ and community‐level forage fish distribution patterns across the US Northeast Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem. Aerial digital surveys gathered data on surface FFAs at two project sites within the NES, which we used in a spatially explicit hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the abundance and size of surface FFAs. We used these models to examine the oceanographic drivers of forage fish distributions and aggregations. Our results suggest that, in the NES, regions of high community species richness are spatially consistent with regions of high surface FFA abundance. Bathymetric depth drove both patterns, while subsurface features, such as mixed layer depth, primarily influenced aggregation behavior and surface features, such as sea surface temperature, sub‐mesoscale eddies, and fronts influenced forage fish diversity. In combination, these models help quantify the availability of forage fishes to marine predators and represent a novel application of spatial models to aerial digital survey data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗