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A catchment scale water balance model for FIFE

A catchment scale water balance model is presented and used to predict evaporation from the King's Creek catchment at the First ISLSCP Field Experiment site on the Konza Prairie, Kansas. The model incorporates spatial variability in topography, soils, and precipitation to compute the land surface hydrologic fluxes. A network of 20 rain gages was employed to measure rainfall across the catchment in the summer of 1987. These data were spatially interpolated and used to drive the model during storm periods. During interstorm periods the model was driven by the estimated potential evaporation, which was calculated using net radiation data collected at site 2. Model-computed evaporation is compared to that observed, both at site 2 (grid location 1916-BRS) and the catchment scale, for the simulation period from June 1 to October 9, 1987.

Famiglietti, J. S.↗

Development and Evaluation of High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Mountainous Northeastern United States

The mountain regions of the northeastern United States are a critical socioeconomic resource for Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Maine, and southern Quebec. While global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for climate change risk assessment at regional scales, even the increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled GCMs (commonly approximately 1/ 8 deg) is not sufficient for hydrologic, ecologic, and land-use modeling of small watersheds within the mountainous Northeast. To address this limitation, an ensemble of topographically downscaled, high-resolution (30"), daily 2-m maximum air temperature; 2-m minimum air temperature; and precipitation simulations are developed for the mountainous Northeast by applying an additional level of downscaling to intermediately downscaled (1/ 8 deg) data using high-resolution topography and station observations. First, observed relationships between 2-m air temperature and elevation and between precipitation and elevation are derived. Then, these relationships are combined with spatial interpolation to enhance the resolution of intermediately downscaled GCM simulations. The resulting topographically downscaled dataset is analyzed for its ability to reproduce station observations. Topographic downscaling adds value to intermediately downscaled maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature at high-elevation stations, as well as moderately improves domain-averaged maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature. Topographic downscaling also improves mean precipitation but not daily probability distributions of precipitation. Overall, the utility of topographic downscaling is dependent on the initial bias of the intermediately downscaled product and the magnitude of the elevation adjustment. As the initial bias or elevation adjustment increases, more value is added to the topographically downscaled product.

climatology↗

High Resolution Image Reconstruction from Projection of Low Resolution Images DIffering in Subpixel Shifts

In this paper, we demonstrate a simple algorithm that projects low resolution (LR) images differing in subpixel shifts on a high resolution (HR) also called super resolution (SR) grid. The algorithm is very effective in accuracy as well as time efficiency. A number of spatial interpolation techniques using nearest neighbor, inverse-distance weighted averages, Radial Basis Functions (RBF) etc. used in projection yield comparable results. For best accuracy of reconstructing SR image by a factor of two requires four LR images differing in four independent subpixel shifts. The algorithm has two steps: i) registration of low resolution images and (ii) shifting the low resolution images to align with reference image and projecting them on high resolution grid based on the shifts of each low resolution image using different interpolation techniques. Experiments are conducted by simulating low resolution images by subpixel shifts and subsampling of original high resolution image and the reconstructing the high resolution images from the simulated low resolution images. The results of accuracy of reconstruction are compared by using mean squared error measure between original high resolution image and reconstructed image. The algorithm was tested on remote sensing images and found to outperform previously proposed techniques such as Iterative Back Projection algorithm (IBP), Maximum Likelihood (ML), and Maximum a posterior (MAP) algorithms. The algorithm is robust and is not overly sensitive to the registration inaccuracies.

Full-Coverage High-Resolution Daily PM(sub 2.5) Estimation using MAIAC AOD in the Yangtze River Delta of China

Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been used to assess population exposure to fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)). The emerging high-resolution satellite aerosol product, Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction(MAIAC), provides a valuable opportunity to characterize local-scale PM(sub 2.5) at 1-km resolution. However, non-random missing AOD due to cloud snow cover or high surface reflectance makes this task challenging. Previous studies filled the data gap by spatially interpolating neighboring PM(sub 2.5) measurements or predictions. This strategy ignored the effect of cloud cover on aerosol loadings and has been shown to exhibit poor performance when monitoring stations are sparse or when there is seasonal large-scale missngness. Using the Yangtze River Delta of China as an example, we present a Multiple Imputation (MI) method that combines the MAIAC high-resolution satellite retrievals with chemical transport model (CTM) simulations to fill missing AOD. A two-stage statistical model driven by gap-filled AOD, meteorology and land use information was then fitted to estimate daily ground PM(sub 2.5) concentrations in 2013 and 2014 at 1 km resolution with complete coverage in space and time. The daily MI models have an average R(exp 2) of 0.77, with an inter-quartile range of 0.71 to 0.82 across days. The overall Ml model 10-fold cross-validation R(exp 2) (root mean square error) were 0.81 (25 gm(exp 3)) and 0.73 (18 gm(exp 3)) for year 2013 and 2014, respectively. Predictions with only observational AOD or only imputed AOD showed similar accuracy.Comparing with previous gap-filling methods, our MI method presented in this study performed bette rwith higher coverage, higher accuracy, and the ability to fill missing PM(sub 2.5) predictions without ground PM(sub 2.5) measurements. This method can provide reliable PM(sub 2.5)predictions with complete coverage that can reduce biasin exposure assessment in air pollution and health studies.

PM2.5↗

File Specification for M2AMIP Products: Version Number - 1.0

The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) is an atmospheric reanalysis computed with the Goddard Earth Observing (EOS) System, Version 5.12.4 (GEOS) data assimilation system (Gelaro et al., 2017). To supplement the reanalysis, the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) used in MERRA-2 has been used to generate a 10-member ensemble of simulations, configured following the convention of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP; Gates et al., 1992). Each ensemble member was initialized using meteorological fields from a different date in November 1979. The AMIP simulations used the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary conditions that were used in MERRA-2 (Bosilovich et al., 2016). This 10-member ensemble of AMIP simulations, denoted M2AMIP, is available for download in a group of self-describing files, which are documented in this office note. All data collections are provided on the same horizontal grid as MERRA-2. This grid has 576 points in the longitudinal direction and 361 points in the latitudinal direction, corresponding to a resolution of 0.625 degrees by 0.5 degrees. Although data collections are available at this grid, all fields are computed on a cubed-sphere grid with an approximate resolution of 50 km by 50 km and are then spatially interpolated to the latitude-longitude grid. There are no changes in the vertical grids used: variables are provided on either the native vertical grid of 72 model layers, or interpolated to 42 standard pressure levels. Unlike MERRA, no data collections are available at the vertical layer edges. More details on the grid are provided in Section 4. MERRA-2 introduced observation-based precipitation forcing for the land surface parameterization and the corresponding variable PRECTOTCORR in the MERRA-2 FLX (surface turbulent fluxes and related quantities) and LFO (land-surface forcing) collections (see Section 6; Reichle et al., 2017). While this variable is still available for M2AMIP, there was no observation-based forcing, making the value identical to the model derived precipitation, PRECTOT. Similarly, without data assimilation, the values for the analysis increments, D*DTANA, in the tendency and vertically integrated file collections are zero. The M2AMIP data are available for download online through the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) DataPortal (https://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/datashare/gmao_m2amip/). Data are arranged in subdirectories based on ensemble member, followed by year and month. Control files that are compatible with the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) are available in the ctl_daily and ctl_monthly directories for the hourly, three hourly, and monthly mean data. Control files for the monthly mean diurnal cycle can be found in the ctl_diurnal subdirectory within the directory for each individual ensemble member.

M2AMIP↗

Novel fine flux integration methods for the DIABOLO simplified transport solver in COCAGNE

As part of its activity, EDF R and D is developing a new nuclear core simulation code named COCAGNE. This code relies on DIABOLO, a Simplified P{sub N} (SP{sub N}) method to compute the neutron flux inside the core for k{sub eff} eigenvalue problems. In order to complete complex simulations involving a large number of successive eigenvalue calculations within acceptable CPU times, the DIABOLO solver uses computational meshes that contain a restricted number of cells (e.g. 4x4 cells per assembly). Solutions obtained on these relatively coarse computational meshes are then spatially interpolated to obtain physical quantities such as neutron production rates on finer meshes (e.g. pin-by-pin power production). This paper describes two novel methods, named Straw-hat and Poisson, that allow the neutron flux to be integrated over fine mesh cells. Unlike the original method used in COCAGNE, these new methods compute accurate fine flux integrals trough the interpolation of the current DOFs of DIABOLO'S mixed dual RTk finite elements. Assessed on a set of 3-D PWR realistic core configurations, these methods are shown to bring about significant improvements over the original integration scheme: for smooth enough flux distribution, the Poisson method improves the pin-by-pin production rates accuracy by as much as one order of magnitude. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Spatial and Temporal Interpolation Analysis Process of Shock Loading

The following document serves to describe the current process that is utilized by W-13 analysts to approximate the pressure-time boundary condition seen by a test object from shock tube loading. The intent of this report is to capture the current capability and to encourage continued growth and development. Information on the required input variables, mapping process, and generated output information is covered in the following sections. Throughout the document, gaps and weaknesses of the mapping process are noted to encourage future development efforts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis at Scale Using Models Based on Gaussian Processes

Gaussian processes are the most commonly used statistical model for spatial and spatio-temporal processes that vary continuously. They are broadly applicable in the physical sciences and engineering and are also frequently used to approximate the output of complex computer models, deterministic or stochastic. We undertook research related to theory, computation, and applications of Gaussian processes as well as some work on estimating extremes of distributions for which a Gaussian process assumption might be inappropriate. Our theoretical contributions include the development of new classes of spatial-temporal covariance functions with desirable properties and new results showing that certain covariance models lead to predictions with undesirable properties. To understand how Gaussian process models behave when applied to deterministic computer models, we derived what we believe to be the first significant results on the large sample properties of estimators of parameters of Gaussian processes when the actual process is a simple deterministic function. Finally, we investigated some theoretical issues related to maxima of observations with varying upper bounds and found that, depending on the circumstances, standard large sample results for maxima may or may not hold. Our computational innovations include methods for analyzing large spatial datasets when observations fall on a partially observed grid and methods for estimating parameters of a Gaussian process model from observations taken by a polar-orbiting satellite. In our application of Gaussian process models to deterministic computer experiments, we carried out some matrix computations that would have been infeasible using even extended precision arithmetic by focusing on special cases in which all elements of the matrices under study are rational and using exact arithmetic. The applications we studied include total column ozone as measured from a polar-orbiting satellite, sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean, and annual temperature extremes at a site in New York City. In each of these applications, our theoretical and computational innovations were directly motivated by the challenges posed by analyzing these and similar types of data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Geostatistical interpolation of streambed hydrologic attributes with addition of left censored data and anisotropy

Spatial geostatistical interpolation of point measurements of streambed attributes in the hyporheic zone may be constrained by the streambed anisotropy, and data density and spatial distribution may significantly impact the results. Spatial clustering and low spatial data density can be caused by bedrock outcropping at the streambed limiting installation of in-stream piezometers. This study examines parameter error variability of the geostatistical interpolation using anisotropic interpolation methods and increasing the data density by adding left censored values (i.e., data below measurement limit) to locations where measurements were limited by exposed bedrock lining the streambed. The reduction in relative standard error of the interpolation was determined for the spatial distributions of streambed attributes including hydraulic conductivity, seepage flux, and mercury solute flux measured in two different years along a study reach in East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee, USA. Here, two methods to impute the left censored values were compared including the conventional half the detection limit substitution method, and the Stochastic Approximation of Expectation-Maximization (SAEM) algorithm, which both had comparable results. Imputing left censored data increased the data density to recommended ranges, reduced data clustering, increased the spatial dependence for some attributes, and reduced the standard error for each of the three attributes. For the reach considered herein, addition of the left censored values resulted in a larger error reduction than the consideration of anisotropy within the interpolation, which confirms the benefit of data addition to increase data density within data-limited river corridors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing the Uncertainty Impact of CERES Fast Longwave and SHortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) Level 3 Product With and Without Terra Observations

The Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of how Earth’s energy flows are varying in time and space and how clouds and aerosols are affecting the Earth’s radiation budget. Nominally, CERES data products require months of validation and calibration before releasing a climate quality data. The Fast Longwave And SHortwave radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) data product was developed to provide data for applied science research involving the renewable energy and agricultural sectors within a week of observation. FLASHFlux achieves this by using simplified calibration, an operational meteorological product from Global Monitoring and Assimilation Office (GMAO), and a surface parameterizations model. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Terra and NOAA-20 observations. 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) gridded data that combines NOAA-20 and Terra observations on a one-degree equal angle grid. FLASHFlux TISA data product interpolate on a diurnal model that assumes a satellite equilateral crossing time of 10:30 AM and 1:30 PM from Terra and Aqua, respectively. Aqua was replaced by NOAA-20 starting on September 2022. Terra is planned to be replace by the Satellite ClOud and Radiation Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) soon. We are currently using the Terra observations as it continues to drift. We assess the impact of FLASHFlux TISA data when Terra is removed. An uncertainty estimate of the Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) fluxes are given of FLASHFlux Version4A (before Terra drift) and Version4B (current), and Version4B (no Terra) in comparison to the CERES EBAF and SYN1deg. In addition, we compare FLASHFlux Version4B and Version4B (no Terra) surface radiative fluxes to ground base measurements to determine the impact of running without Terra data.

PC Sawaengphokhai↗

On the uncertainty of estimating photovoltaic soiling using nearby soiling data

The accumulation of dust on the surface of photovoltaic modules can reduce their performance and affect the cost competitiveness of this technology. This phenomenon is known as soiling and can be mitigated through appropriate corrective and/or preventive actions. In order to maximize its effectiveness, it is important to plan the soiling mitigation strategy even before the PV system is operational. This is typically done through a nearest neighbor approach, by estimating soiling using data from the nearest operational photovoltaic system. This work focuses on understanding the uncertainty related to this practice. For this purpose, the semi-variance function is used to study the dissimilarity between the soiling losses of two locations in California depending on their distance. The results show that, when the soiling loss at a nearby system is used to estimate soiling of a site, the uncertainty can be approximated to increase linearly at a rate of 0.08-0.10%/km up to 60 or 80 km. After this distance, the use of a nearest neighbor approach is no longer justified, as it produces an uncertainty as big as the average soiling loss of the sites in the dataset used in this study. In some conditions, uncertainties > 0% are found also for sites located within 25 km, meaning that even close-by systems might soil differently.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Space and time aliasing structure is monthly mean polar-orbiting satellite data

Monthly mean wind fields from the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS1) scatterometer are presented. A banded structure which resembles the satellite subtrack is clearly and consistently apparent in the isotachs as well as the u and v components of the routinely produced fields. The structure also appears in the means of data from other polar-orbiting satellites and instruments. An experiment is designed to trace the cause of the banded structure. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) gridded surface wind analyses are used as a control set. These analyses are also sampled with the ERS1 temporal-spatial samplig pattern to form a simulated scatterometer wind set. Both sets are used to create monthly averages. The banded structures appear in the monthly mean simulated data but do not appear in the control set. It is concluded that the source of the banded structure lies in the spatial and temporal sampling of the polar-orbiting satellite which results in undersampling. The problem involves multiple timescales and space scales, oversampling and under-sampling in space, aliasing in the time and space domains, and preferentially sampled variability. It is shown that commonly used spatial smoothers (or filters), while producing visually pleasing results, also significantly bias the true mean. A three-dimensional spatial-temporal interpolator is designed and used to determine the mean field. It is found to produce satisfactory monthly means from both simulated and real ERS1 data. The implications to climate studies involving polar-orbiting satellite data are discussed.

Zeng, Lixin↗

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

Accurate knowledge of soil moisture at the continental scale is important for improving predictions of weather, agricultural productivity and natural hazards, but observations of soil moisture at such scales are limited to indirect measurements, either obtained through satellite remote sensing or from meteorological networks. Land surface models simulate soil moisture processes, using observation-based meteorological forcing data, and auxiliary information about soil, terrain and vegetation characteristics. Enhanced estimates of soil moisture and other land surface variables, along with their uncertainty, can be obtained by assimilating observations of soil moisture into land surface models. These assimilation results are of direct relevance for the initialization of hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems. The success of the assimilation depends on the choice of the assimilation technique, the nature of the model and the assimilated observations, and, most importantly, the characterization of model and observation error. Systematic differences between satellite-based microwave observations or satellite-retrieved soil moisture and their simulated counterparts require special attention. Other challenges include inferring root-zone soil moisture information from observations that pertain to a shallow surface soil layer, propagating information to unobserved areas and downscaling of coarse information to finer-scale soil moisture estimates. This chapter summarizes state-of-the-art solutions to these issues with conceptual data assimilation examples, using techniques ranging from simplified optimal interpolation to spatial ensemble Kalman filtering. In addition, operational soil moisture assimilation systems are discussed that support numerical weather prediction at ECMWF and provide value-added soil moisture products for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive mission.

radar backscatter↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-33912-DND

The agricultural, renewable energy management, and science communities need global surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes on a near real-time basis for uses such as building energy performance monitoring and seasonal crop yield modeling. The Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) FLASHFlux (Fast Longwave and SHortwave radiative Flux) data products address this need by enhancing the speed of CERES processing using simplified calibration, averaging techniques and fast radiation parameterizations to produce global fluxes within a week of satellite observations. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Aqua and Terra observations, and 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) 1degree x 1degree gridded data that combines Aqua and Terra observations. The CERES FLASHFlux Version4A includes an update to process MODIS Collection 6.1 in an improved cloud retrieval algorithm, and an update to the CERES Edition 4 angular distribution models. We inter-compared FLASHFlux Version4A, FLASHFlux Version3C, and CERES EBAF (Energy Balanced and Filled) Top-of-Atmosphere fluxes to evaluate these improvements. We also compare both SSF overpass and TISA radiative flux products to a set of surface measurement sites that are globally distributed and assess agreement. FLASHFlux TISA and CERES EBAF are used in the analysis of TOA anomalies for the annual State of Climate report. This also poster highlights the methodology use to merge the two data products by correcting the bias in FLASHFlux TISA and inter-calibrate to CERES EBAF.

Parnchai K Sawaengphokhai↗

CERES Fast Longwave And SHortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux): Research to Operation

The Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of how Earth’s energy flows are varying in time and space and how clouds and aerosols are affecting the Earth’s radiation budget. Nominally, CERES data products require months of validation and calibration before releasing a climate quality data. The Fast Longwave and Shortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) data product was developed as to provide key radiative flux data products within a week of observations for scientific, applied science research and educational usage. FLASHFlux achieves this by using simplified calibration process and optimized CERES data fusion production system, an operation meteorology product from Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), and surface parameterized radiative flux models. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Aqua and Terra observations, and 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) 1ox1o gridded data that combines Aqua and Terra observations.The current operational Version 3C is being transitioned to Version4A. We compare the FLASHFlux Version4A fluxes using the specialized calibration to Version3C and to the climate quality CERES Edition4A TOA and surface fluxes over time for Terra and Aqua to determine the uncertainties of the calibration process. In addition, we also compare the impact of the fluxes by using the near real-time GMAO GEOS FP-IT instead of GMAO G5-CERES meteorology data.We also compare both SSF overpass products (for Terra and Aqua) and TISA radiative flux products to a set of surface measurement sites that are globally distributed and assess agreement.Lastly, we introduce the first CERES FF SSF data products from the CERES instrument on board NOAA-20.

P Sawaengphokhai↗

CERES Fast Longwave And SHortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux): Research to Operation

The Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of how Earth’s energy flows are varying in time and space and how clouds and aerosols are affecting the Earth’s radiation budget. Nominally, CERES data products require months of validation and calibration before releasing a climate quality data. The Fast Longwave and Shortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) data product was developed as to provide key data for applied science research involving the renewable energy and agricultural sectors within a week of observations. FLASHFlux achieves this by using simplified calibration, an operation meteorology product from Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), and its own surface parameterizations model. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Aqua and Terra observations, and 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) 1ox 1ogridded data that combines Aqua and Terra observations. We inter-compared of FLASHFlux Version4A calibration to the climate quality CERES Edition4A data product over time. In addition, we also inter-compared the impact of the fluxes by using the near real-time GMAO GEOS FP-IT instead of GMAO G5-CERES meteorology data. We also compare both SSF overpass and TISA radiative flux products to a set of surface measurement sites that are globally distributed and assess agreement.

P. C. Sawaengphokhai↗