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Regional and seasonal estimates of fractional storm coverage based on station precipitation observations

Simulated climates using numerical atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the fraction of GCM grid area assumed to be wetted during rain events. The model hydrologic cycle and land-surface water and energy balance are influenced by the parameter bar-kappa, which is the dimensionless fractional wetted area for GCM grids. Hourly precipitation records for over 1700 precipitation stations within the contiguous United States are used to obtain observation-based estimates of fractional wetting that exhibit regional and seasonal variations. The spatial parameter bar-kappa is estimated from the temporal raingauge data using conditional probability relations. Monthly bar-kappa values are estimated for rectangular grid areas over the contiguous United States as defined by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 4 deg x 5 deg GCM. A bias in the estimates is evident due to the unavoidably sparse raingauge network density, which causes some storms to go undetected by the network. This bias is corrected by deriving the probability of a storm escaping detection by the network. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also conducted that consists of synthetically generated storm arrivals over an artificial grid area. It is used to confirm the bar-kappa estimation procedure and to test the nature of the bias and its correction. These monthly fractional wetting estimates, based on the analysis of station precipitation data, provide an observational basis for assigning the influential parameter bar-kappa in GCM land-surface hydrology parameterizations.

Gong, Gavin↗

Australian topography from Seasat overland altimetry

Retracking of overland returns from the Seasat altimeter using algorithms originally developed for recovering elevations over ice has led to the successful recovery of high quality continental topography over Australia and other continents. Cross-over analysis both before and after orbit adjustment shows the altimetric data over land to have a 2-3 m quality. Direct comparison of gridded Seasat data with surface data re-averaged in the same way shows excellent agreement except where Seasat data are sparse, due either to poor track spacing or to dropouts caused by loss of tracker lock over steeply sloping ground. These results suggest that useful topographic data can be derived from Seasat and the more recent Geosat altimeters for parts of the world where surface data are few or of poor quality.

Frey, Herbert↗

Bayesian Geostatistical Modelling of PM10 and PM2.5 Surface Level Concentrations in Europe Using High-Resolution Satellite-Derived Products

Air quality monitoring across Europe is mainly based on in situ ground stations which are too sparse to accurately assess the exposure effects of air pollution for the entire continent. The demand for precise predictive modelsthat estimate gridded geophysical parameters of ambient air at high spatial resolution has rapidly grown. Here, we investigate the potential of satellite derived products to improve particulate matter (PM) estimates. Bayesiangeostatistical models addressing confounding between the spatial distribution of pollutants and remotely sensed predictors were developed to estimate yearly averages of both, fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM10) surface PM concentrations at 1 sq.km spatial resolution over 46 European countries and were compared to geostatistical, geographically weighted and land-use regression formulations. Rigorous model selection identified the Earth observation data which contribute most to pollutants' estimation. Geostatistical models outperformed the predictive ability of the frequently employed land-use regression. The resulting estimates of PM10 and PM2.5, which represent the main air quality indicators for the urban Sustainable Development Goal, indicate that in 2016, 66.2% of the European population was breathing air above the WHO Air Quality Guidelines thresholds. Our estimates are readily available to policy makers and scientists assessing the effects of long-term exposure to pollution on human and ecosystem health.

Beloconi, Anton↗

The Evolution of Gridded NUCAPS: An Overview of Research to Operations Activities

The next-generation S-NPP and NOAA-20 Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) temperature and moisture profiles can provide valuable observations; (1) Where conventional radiosonde observations are sparse, (2) Between radiosonde launches. CrIS observations are combined with the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) to produce high quality vertical soundings in clear and partly cloudy conditions. NUCAPS (NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System) is the operational algorithm for processing combined hyperspectral infrared and microwave measurements. NUCAPS Soundings are operationally available in AWIPS as Skew-T plots. The capability to visualize the data in plan view or cross section would be valuable to maximize the benefits of NUCAPS data in AWIPS. A multi-organizational collaboration through the JPPS Soundings Applications Initiative developed the capability for plan view and cross section displays of NUCAPS in AWIPS (i.e., Gridded NUCAPS).

Berndt, Emily↗

The GEOS-iODAS: Description and Evaluation

This report documents the GMAO's Goddard Earth Observing System sea ice and ocean data assimilation systems (GEOS iODAS) and their evolution from the first reanalysis test, through the implementation that was used to initialize the GMAO decadal forecasts, and to the current system that is used to initialize the GMAO seasonal forecasts. The iODAS assimilates a wide range of observations into the ocean and sea ice components: in-situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomalies from satellite altimetry, analyzed SST, and sea-ice concentration. The climatological sea surface salinity is used to constrain the surface salinity prior to the Argo years. Climatological temperature and salinity gridded data sets from the 2009 version of the World Ocean Atlas (WOA09) are used to help constrain the analysis in data sparse areas. The latest analysis, GEOS ODAS5.2, is diagnosed through detailed studies of the statistics of the innovations and analysis departures, comparisons with independent data, and integrated values such as volume transport. Finally, the climatologies of temperature and salinity fields from the Argo era, 2002-2011, are presented and compared with the WOA09.

Climate↗

Estimating Evapotranspiration Using an Observation Based Terrestrial Water Budget

Evapotranspiration (ET) is difficult to measure at the scales of climate models and climate variability. While satellite retrieval algorithms do exist, their accuracy is limited by the sparseness of in situ observations available for calibration and validation, which themselves may be unrepresentative of 500m and larger scale satellite footprints and grid pixels. Here, we use a combination of satellite and ground-based observations to close the water budgets of seven continental scale river basins (Mackenzie, Fraser, Nelson, Mississippi, Tocantins, Danube, and Ubangi), estimating mean ET as a residual. For any river basin, ET must equal total precipitation minus net runoff minus the change in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), in order for mass to be conserved. We make use of precipitation from two global observation-based products, archived runoff data, and TWS changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission. We demonstrate that while uncertainty in the water budget-based estimates of monthly ET is often too large for those estimates to be useful, the uncertainty in the mean annual cycle is small enough that it is practical for evaluating other ET products. Here, we evaluate five land surface model simulations, two operational atmospheric analyses, and a recent global reanalysis product based on our results. An important outcome is that the water budget-based ET time series in two tropical river basins, one in Brazil and the other in central Africa, exhibit a weak annual cycle, which may help to resolve debate about the strength of the annual cycle of ET in such regions and how ET is constrained throughout the year. The methods described will be useful for water and energy budget studies, weather and climate model assessments, and satellite-based ET retrieval optimization.

Rodell, Matthew↗

Homogenization models for 2-D grid structures

In the past several years, we have pursued efforts related to the development of accurate models for the dynamics of flexible structures made of composite materials. Rather than viewing periodicity and sparseness as obstacles to be overcome, we exploit them to our advantage. We consider a variational problem on a domain that has large, periodically distributed holes. Using homogenization techniques we show that the solution to this problem is in some topology 'close' to the solution of a similar problem that holds on a much simpler domain. We study the behavior of the solution of the variational problem as the holes increase in number, but decrease in size in such a way that the total amount of material remains constant. The result is an equation that is in general more complex, but with a domain that is simply connected rather than perforated. We study the limit of the solution as the amount of material goes to zero. This second limit will, in most cases, retrieve much of the simplicity that was lost in the first limit without sacrificing the simplicity of the domain. Finally, we show that these results can be applied to the case of a vibrating Love-Kirchhoff plate with Kelvin-Voigt damping. We rely heavily on earlier results of (Du), (CS) for the static, undamped Love-Kirchhoff equation. Our efforts here result in a modification of those results to include both time dependence and Kelvin-Voigt damping.

Banks, H. T.↗

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Project Assessment Report for Version 4 of the L4_SM Data Product

This report provides an assessment of Version 4 of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, released on 14 June 2018. The assessment includes comparisons of L4_SM soil moisture and temperature estimates with in situ measurements from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product, including observation-minus-forecast (O-F) brightness temperature residuals and soil moisture analysis increments.Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics areconsidered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to upscaling errors from the point-scale to the grid-cell scale of the data product.The Version 4 L4_SM product benefits from an improved land surface modeling system and from retrospective surface meteorological forcing data that are as consistent as possible with the present-day datain terms of their climatology. Specifically, the model changes include revised parameters and parameterizations for (i) the surface energy balance, (ii) recharge from below of the model's surface excess reservoir, and (iii) the snow depletion curve. Updated ancillary inputs include improved datasets for landcover, topography, and vegetation height. The Version 4 algorithm further includes a revised approach to precipitation corrections that improves the precipitation climatology in Africa and the high-latitudes. Moreover, for system calibration the model is forced retrospectively with MERRA-2 reanalysis data, which are more consistent with the near-real time GEOS forward processing (FP) data used during the SMAP period than the retrospective GEOS data that were available for previous L4_SM versions. An analysis of the time-average surface and root zone soil moisture shows that the global pattern ofarid and humid regions is captured by the Version 4 L4_SM estimates. Owing to the changes in the landsurface modeling system, surface soil moisture is typically drier by several volumetric percent in Version 4 compared to Version 3, whereas root zone soil moisture is wetter in Version 4 in some regions and drierin others. Because of these climatological differences, the Version 3 and Version 4 products should not be combined into a single dataset for use in applications.Results from the core validation site comparisons indicate that Version 4 of the L4_SM data product meets the self-imposed L4_SM accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the RMSE after removal of the long-term mean difference (ubRMSE). The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM dataat the 9 km scale is 0.039 m3 m-3 for surface soil moisture and 0.029 m3 m-3 for root zone soil moisture,below the 0.04 m3 m-3 requirement. The L4_SM estimates are an improvement over estimates from a model-only Nature Run version 7.2 (NRv7.2), which demonstrates the beneficial impact of the SMAP brightness temperature data. Overall, L4_SM surface and root zone soil moisture estimates are more skillful than NRv7.2 estimates, with statistically significant improvements at the 5% level for surface soil moisture R and anomaly R values. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to i

Reichle, Rolf H.↗

Diurnal Cycles in SST: Coupled Data Assimilation and Future Observational Requirements

Most operational centers are developing coupled (atmosphere-ocean) data assimilation systems as an alternative to uncoupled counterparts (atmosphere- or ocean-only). The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is one of the key variables that tightly connects the atmosphere and ocean states and also air-sea fluxes. However, current prototype coupled data assimilation systems rely on external (L4) gridded SST or along-track (L3 or L2) SST retrievals as observed data or relaxation field. But in reality, SST are measurements are available from sparse in-situ network of ships, moorings, and buoys; all of them combined together are far less than those from satellites. However, satellites do not directly measure temperature, and inferring SST from satellite measured radiances requires a radiative transfer model, its calibration and also bias correction.The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is developing a coupled data assimilation system which assimilates SST directly from the raw observations, i.e., satellite radiances and in-situ observations. The methodology to directly assimilate radiances for SST became operational in Jan, 2017 in the GMAO's near-real time Weather Analysis and Prediction System. There were many modifications to the GMAO system in order to implement SST assimilation, most of which generally improved the predictability of the system. In order to maintain and further improve this system, we advocate for the availability of a microwave satellite radiometer in future beyond the currently operational GPM- GMI and AMSR-2 missions. For improved modeling of the near-surface temperature, salinity and mixing processes, we suggest adding more than one temperature sensor and salinity sensors to the drifting buoy network.

Akella, Santha↗

Application of VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data in weather analysis

A technique which analyzes irregularly spaced satellite data is described. An experiment with rawinsonde and VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) radiance measurements collected on March 6-7, 1982 is conducted to reveal the applicability of the technique. The rawinsonde data are analyzed on a 16 x 12 grid using the two pass analysis scheme of Barnes (1973). A scheme similar to the Barnes (1973) procedure is employed to produce gridded analysis of VAS data over a 200 x 15000 km region in central part of the U.S. The use of a correction pass on the initial gridded field is described; the technique is extremely effective on uniformly spaced observations. The incorporation of the limited fine mesh model to the scheme to analyze data in sparse and cloudy regions is examined. A comparison of rawinsonde data with VAS data is provided. The technique proves effective for studying cloudy and sparse areas with VAS data and produces a four-dimensional data set with significant mesoscale structure.

Jedlovec, G. J.↗

Mapping unstructured grid computations to massively parallel computers

Investigated here is this mapping problem: assign the tasks of a parallel program to the processors of a parallel computer such that the execution time is minimized. First, a taxonomy of objective functions and heuristics used to solve the mapping problem is presented. Next, we develop a highly parallel heuristic mapping algorithm, called Cyclic Pairwise Exchange (CPE), and discuss its place in the taxonomy. CPE uses local pairwise exchanges of processor assignments to iteratively improve an initial mapping. A variety of initial mapping schemes are tested and recursive spectral bipartitioning (RSB) followed by CPE is shown to result in the best mappings. For the test cases studied here, problems arising in computational fluid dynamics and structural mechanics on unstructured triangular and tetrahedral meshes, RSB and CPE outperform methods based on simulated annealing. Much less time is required to do the mapping and the results obtained are better. Compared with random and naive mappings, RSB and CPE reduce the communication time two fold for the test problems used. Finally, we use CPE in two applications on a CM-2. The first application is a data parallel mesh-vertex upwind finite volume scheme for solving the Euler equations on 2-D triangular unstructured meshes. CPE is used to map grid points to processors. The performance of this code is compared with a similar code on a Cray-YMP and an Intel iPSC/860. The second application is parallel sparse matrix-vector multiplication used in the iterative solution of large sparse linear systems of equations. We map rows of the matrix to processors and use an inner-product based matrix-vector multiplication. We demonstrate that this method is an order of magnitude faster than methods based on scan operations for our test cases.

Hammond, Steven Warren↗

MISR Level 2 TOA/Cloud Stereo parameters (MIL2TCST_V1)

The MISR Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA)/Cloud Stereo geophysical parameters include stereoscopically-derived cloud motion vectors (winds), cloud-top heights, and an accompanying cloud mask. The Stereo product geophysical parameters include a stereoscopically-derived cloud mask and cloud height on a 1.1 km grid. It also includes cloud motion vectors on a 70.4 km grid. The three types of stereo heights are: the BestWind heights are only calculated for those regions where the associated wind vectors passed the quality tests. Therefore, they have sparse coverage but since the wind correction is included, these contain our 'best guess' as to what the true heights are. The WithoutWind heights are calculated assuming a constant wind vector of zero. They have almost complete coverage and therefore form a nice 'pretty picture' of the relative cloud heights over small areas. The RawWind heights are a diagnostic product as they are calculated using all available wind vectors (even the bad ones). It is therefore recommended that one only use the Best and Without wind products. It is important to remember that the stereo matchers pick up the layer of maximum contrast, which is not necessarily the same as the highest cloud so all the stereo heights are keyed to this level of maximum contrast. Therefore, higher and thinner cirrus layers may not be detected by any of the height fields. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1.1 km; Longitude_Resolution=1.1 km; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=1 km - < 10 km or approximately .01 degree - < .09 degree; Temporal_Resolution=about 15 orbits/day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Daily - < Weekly].

EOSDIS↗

MISR Level 2 TOA/Cloud Stereo parameters (MIL2TCST_V2)

The MISR Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA)/Cloud Stereo geophysical parameters include stereoscopically-derived cloud motion vectors (winds), cloud-top heights, and an accompanying cloud mask. The Stereo product geophysical parameters include a stereoscopically-derived cloud mask and cloud height on a 1.1 km grid. It also includes cloud motion vectors on a 70.4 km grid. The three types of stereo heights are: the BestWind heights are only calculated for those regions where the associated wind vectors passed the quality tests. Therefore, they have sparse coverage but since the wind correction is included, these contain our 'best guess' as to what the true heights are. The WithoutWind heights are calculated assuming a constant wind vector of zero. They have almost complete coverage and therefore form a nice 'pretty picture' of the relative cloud heights over small areas. The RawWind heights are a diagnostic product as they are calculated using all available wind vectors (even the bad ones). It is therefore recommended that one only use the Best and Without wind products. It is important to remember that the stereo matchers pick up the layer of maximum contrast, which is not necessarily the same as the highest cloud so all the stereo heights are keyed to this level of maximum contrast. Therefore, higher and thinner cirrus layers may not be detected by any of the height fields. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1.1 km; Longitude_Resolution=1.1 km; Temporal_Resolution=about 15 orbits/day].

CLOUD MASK↗

Search for evidence of low energy protons in solar flares

We searched for linear polarization in the H alpha line using the Stokes Polarimeter at Mees Solar Observatory and present observations of a flare from NOAA active region 6659 which began at 01:30 UT on 14 Jun. 1991. Our dataset also includes H alpha spectra from the Mees charge coupled device (MCCD) imaging spectrograph as well as hard x ray observations from the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) instrument on board the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO). The polarimeter scanned a 40 x 40 inch field of view using 16 raster points in a 4 x 4 grid. Each scan took about 30 seconds with 2 seconds at each raster point. The polarimeter stopped 8.5 inches between raster points and each point covered a 6 inch region. This sparse sampling increased the total field of view without reducing the temporal cadence. At each raster point, an H alpha spectrum with 20 mA spectral sampling is obtained covering 2.6 A centered on H alpha line center. The preliminary conclusions from the research are presented.

Metcalf, Thomas R.↗

Ordering Unstructured Meshes for Sparse Matrix Computations on Leading Parallel Systems

The ability of computers to solve hitherto intractable problems and simulate complex processes using mathematical models makes them an indispensable part of modern science and engineering. Computer simulations of large-scale realistic applications usually require solving a set of non-linear partial differential equations (PDES) over a finite region. For example, one thrust area in the DOE Grand Challenge projects is to design future accelerators such as the SpaHation Neutron Source (SNS). Our colleagues at SLAC need to model complex RFQ cavities with large aspect ratios. Unstructured grids are currently used to resolve the small features in a large computational domain; dynamic mesh adaptation will be added in the future for additional efficiency. The PDEs for electromagnetics are discretized by the FEM method, which leads to a generalized eigenvalue problem Kx = AMx, where K and M are the stiffness and mass matrices, and are very sparse. In a typical cavity model, the number of degrees of freedom is about one million. For such large eigenproblems, direct solution techniques quickly reach the memory limits. Instead, the most widely-used methods are Krylov subspace methods, such as Lanczos or Jacobi-Davidson. In all the Krylov-based algorithms, sparse matrix-vector multiplication (SPMV) must be performed repeatedly. Therefore, the efficiency of SPMV usually determines the eigensolver speed. SPMV is also one of the most heavily used kernels in large-scale numerical simulations.

Oliker, Leonid↗

Fractal characteristics of ozonometric network

The fractal (correlation) dimensions are calculated which characterize the distribution of stations in the ground-based total ozone measuring network and the distribution of nodes in a latitude-longitude grid. The dimension of the ground-based ozonometric network equals 1.67 +/- 0.1 with an appropriate scaling in the 60 to 400 km range. For the latitude-longitude grid two scaling regimes are revealed. One regime, with the dimension somewhat greater than one, is peculiar to smaller scales and limited from a larger scale by the latitudinal resolution of the grid. Another scaling regime, with the dimension equal 1.84, ranges up to 15,000 km scale. The fact that the dimension of a measuring network is less than two possesses problems in observing sparse phenomena. This has to have important consequences for ozone statistics.

Gruzdev, Alexander N.↗

Numerical Reanalyses as a Gateway to Arctic Synthesis

Reanalyses are regularly gridded, retrospective depictions of the physical earth system, which are produced through the correction of a short-term forecast to available observations. In the Arctic, reanalyses are particularly well suited to marshal the sparse observing network to provide a plausible, multivariate representation of conditions. Atmospheric reanalyses such as MERRA-2 (NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2) and ocean reanalyses such as SODA3 (Univ. Maryland Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 3) are widely used in Arctic research for diagnostic studies of circulation, model evaluation, and as boundary conditions for a variety of process models. Here, we provide examples that illustrate the utility of reanalyses for providing information on the spatial and temporal scales of recent, rapid changes in the Arctic. Recent trends in Arctic surface temperatures, surface melt over Greenland and Arctic glaciers, and evolving freshwater conditions in the Arctic Ocean are examples where reanalyses can provide information that cannot easily be obtained via other means. These examples provide information on the scale, magnitude, and the uncertainty of recent Arctic change and provide a context for future scenarios. We further quantify uncertainties in key reanalyses variables and approaches for addressing these issues.

Arctic↗

An Optimized Multicolor Point-Implicit Solver for Unstructured Grid Applications on Graphics Processing Units

In the field of computational fluid dynamics, the Navier-Stokes equations are often solved using an unstructuredgrid approach to accommodate geometric complexity. Implicit solution methodologies for such spatial discretizations generally require frequent solution of large tightly-coupled systems of block-sparse linear equations. The multicolor point-implicit solver used in the current work typically requires a significant fraction of the overall application run time. In this work, an efficient implementation of the solver for graphics processing units is proposed. Several factors present unique challenges to achieving an efficient implementation in this environment. These include the variable amount of parallelism available in different kernel calls, indirect memory access patterns, low arithmetic intensity, and the requirement to support variable block sizes. In this work, the solver is reformulated to use standard sparse and dense Basic Linear Algebra Subprograms (BLAS) functions. However, numerical experiments show that the performance of the BLAS functions available in existing CUDA libraries is suboptimal for matrices representative of those encountered in actual simulations. Instead, optimized versions of these functions are developed. Depending on block size, the new implementations show performance gains of up to 7x over the existing CUDA library functions.

Zubair, Mohammad↗