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At least 55 records · Page 3

Machine learning methods for probabilistic locked-mode predictors in tokamak plasmas

A rotating tokamak plasma can interact resonantly with the external helical magnetic perturbations, also known as error fields. This can lead to locking and then to disruptions. We leverage machine learning (ML) methods to predict the locking events. We use a coupled third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equation model to represent the interaction of the magnetic perturbation and the plasma rotation with the error field. This model is sufficient to describe qualitatively the locking and unlocking bifurcations. Here, we explore using ML algorithms with the simulation data and experimental data, focusing on the methods that can be used with sparse datasets. These methods lead to the possibility of the avoidance of locking in real-time operations. We describe the operational space in terms of two control parameters: the magnitude of the error field and the rotation frequency associated with the momentum source that maintains the plasma rotation. The outcomes are quan- tified by order parameters that completely characterize the state, whether locked or unlocked. We use unsupervised ML methods to classify locked/unlocked states and note the usefulness of a certain normalization of the order parameters. Three supervised ML classifiers are used in suite to estimate the probability of locking in the region of control parameter space with hysteresis, i.e., the set of control parameters for which both locked and unlocked states can exist. The results show that a neural network gives the best estimate of the locking probability. An analogy of the present locking model with the van der Waals equation of state is also provided.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Efficient mapping between void shapes and stress fields using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks with sparse data

Establishing fast and accurate structure-to-property relationships is an important component in the design and discovery of advanced materials. Physics-based simulation models like the finite element method (FEM) are often used to predict deformation, stress, and strain fields as a function of material microstructure in material and structural systems. Such models may be computationally expensive and time intensive if the underlying physics of the system is complex. This limits their application to solve inverse design problems and identify structures that maximize performance. In such scenarios, surrogate models are employed to make the forward mapping computationally efficient to evaluate. However, the high dimensionality of the input microstructure and the output field of interest often renders such surrogate models inefficient, especially when dealing with sparse data. Deep convolutional neural network (CNN) based surrogate models have shown great promise in handling such high-dimensional problems. In this paper, a single ellipsoidal void structure under a uniaxial tensile load represented by a linear elastic, high-dimensional and expensive-to-query, FEM model. We consider two deep CNN architectures, a modified convolutional autoencoder framework with a fully connected bottleneck and a UNet CNN, and compare their accuracy in predicting the von Mises stress field for any given input void shape in the FEM model. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis study is performed using the two approaches, where the variation in the prediction accuracy on unseen test data is studied through numerical experiments by varying the number of training samples from 20 to 100.

surrogate modeling; convolutional neural networks;↗

Validation of Thermal Scattering Laws for Light Water at Elevated Temperatures with Diffusion Experiments

Light water is the most important neutron moderator in many reactor applications. Thermal neutron scattering kernels for H bound in H 2 O are represented by ENDF-format thermal scattering laws (TSLs) evaluated at discrete temperatures T . Nuclear data evaluations are conventionally validated utilizing a combination of critical benchmarks and experimental cross section data. Existing public critical benchmarks may be inadequate for testing water TSLs over the full range of T of interest in reactor applications, and experimental thermal scattering cross section data for water is sparse at elevated T . In this work, MC21 is used to simulate the decay of the equilibrium thermal neutron flux in light-water spheres of several radii. The fundamental-mode time eigenvalue $\mathcal{a}$ is calculated at 22 °C and 227 °C (at saturation pressure) for each sphere using three different H-H 2 O TSLs. Fitting $\mathcal{a}$ to a polynomial function of geometric buckling allows calculation of the thermal neutron diffusion length L . Extrapolation lengths are treated as a function of the transport mean free path and geometry. Experimental L data from 25 publications at 49 temperatures (from 10 °C to 295 °C), computed by several different time-dependent and space-dependent decay methods, is used to develop an empirical fit of L vs. T . The MC21-calculated L for the TSLs tested are within ±1% of the predicted values at 22 °C and 227 °C. This validation approach, which may be repeated at arbitrary T , constitutes an integral benchmark specific to and characterizing the detailed physics of the thermal scattering kernel applied.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Simulating Observations of Southern Ocean Clouds and Implications for Climate

Southern Ocean (S. Ocean) clouds are important for climate prediction. Yet previous global climate models failed to accurately represent cloud phase distributions in this observation-sparse region. In this study, data from the Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol, Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES) experiment is compared to constrained simulations from a global climate model (the Community Atmosphere Model, CAM). Nudged versions of CAM are found to reproduce many of the features of detailed in situ observations, such as cloud location, cloud phase, and boundary layer structure. The simulation in CAM6 has improved its representation of S. Ocean clouds with adjustments to the ice nucleation and cloud microphysics schemes that permit more supercooled liquid. Comparisons between modeled and observed hydrometeor size distributions suggest that the modeled hydrometeor size distributions represent the dual peaked shape and form of observed distributions, which is remarkable given the scale difference between model and observations. Comparison to satellite observations of cloud physics is difficult due to model assumptions that do not match retrieval assumptions. Some biases in the model's representation of S. Ocean clouds and aerosols remain, but the detailed cloud physical parameterization provides a basis for process level improvement and direct comparisons to observations. This is crucial because cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity are sensitive to the representation of S. Ocean clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GentenMPI: Distributed Memory Sparse Tensor Decomposition

GentenMPl is a toolkit of sparse canonical polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition algorithms that is designed to run effectively on distributed-memory high-performance computers. Its use of distributed-memory parallelism enables it to efficiently decompose tensors that are too large for a single compute node's memory. GentenMPl leverages Sandia's decades-long investment in the Trilinos solver framework for much of its parallel-computation capability. Trilinos contains numerical algorithms and linear algebra classes that have been optimized for parallel simulation of complex physical phenomena. This work applies these tools to the data science problem of sparse tensor decomposition. In this report, we describe the use of Trilinos in GentenMPl, extensions needed for sparse tensor decomposition, and implementations of the CP-ALS (CP via alternating least squares) and GCP-SGD (generalized CP via stochastic gradient descent) sparse tensor decomposition algorithms. We show that GentenMPl can decompose sparse tensors of extreme size, e.g., a 12.6-terabyte tensor on 8192 computer cores. We demonstrate that the Trilinos backbone provides good strong and weak scaling of the tensor decomposition algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of the Senseiver for efficient field reconstruction from sparse observations

Abstract The reconstruction of complex time-evolving fields from sensor observations is a grand challenge. Frequently, sensors have extremely sparse coverage and low-resource computing capacity for measuring highly nonlinear phenomena. While numerical simulations can model some of these phenomena using partial differential equations, the reconstruction problem is ill-posed. Data-driven-strategies provide crucial disambiguation, but these suffer in cases with small amounts of data, and struggle to handle large domains. Here we present the Senseiver, an attention-based framework that excels in reconstructing complex spatial fields from few observations with low overhead. The Senseiver reconstructs n -dimensional fields by encoding arbitrarily sized sparse sets of inputs into a latent space using cross-attention, producing uniform-sized outputs regardless of the number of observations. This allows efficient inference by decoding only a sparse set of output observations, while a dense set of observations is needed to train. This framework enables training of data with complex boundary conditions and extremely large fine-scale simulations. We build on the Perceiver IO by enabling training models with fewer parameters, which facilitates field deployment, and a training framework that allows a flexible number of sensors as input, which is critical for real-world applications. We show that the Senseiver advances the state-of-the-art of field reconstruction in many applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modelling TOVS radiances of synoptic systems

Two operational analysis models, produced by ECMWF and NMC, are compared against observed satellite radiances by converting the analyzed variables into synthetic radiances using a radiative transfer model (RTM). Observed TOVS satellite radiances are used as a ground truth, since they are the only source of continuous, synoptic-scale resolution observations available over the data-sparse tropical Pacific Ocean. It is assumed that if the analysis models correctly simulate atmospheric conditions, the observed and modelled radiance fields will have similar patterns and magnitudes. In each of seven TOVS channels examined, the mean temperature difference between the models was small, but the differences between the models and the observations were large. The mean temperature difference within each channel was larger than the standard deviation in most cases. The moisture channels of the RTM were sensitive to changes in moisture content, but none of the channels were significantly affected by changes in temperature. Single-day modelled radiance analyses contain synoptic information similar to the satellite observations. ECMWF is often too noisy, producing features not verified by the satellite; NMC is often too smooth. NMC more closely resembles the TOVS contours. Modelled water vapor channel analyses resemble observed monthly and composited observations well, but do not accurately reproduce the highly-variable single-day fields. ECMWF generally has more accurate gradients. Neither model simulates the tropics well. The water vapor channels, especially channel eleven (weighted at 700 mb), most closely resembled the tropical plume composite described by McGuirk and Ulsh. The only plume evidence found in the thermal or microwave channels, in either the observations or the models, was a composite trough situated in the correct location, extending from the mid-latitudes into the subtropics. This feature was not readily discernable until the definition and mature stages. Additional information besides the modelled temperatures would be required to produce an accurate forecast for the tropics. Model patterns more closely resembled the observations in the quiescent atmosphere, though the magnitudes were not any closer. ECMWF simulates the TOVS quiescent state better than NMC. The moisture channels continue to present the most realistic patterns. The models contained more detail in the tropics than was verified by the satellite observations, apparently trying to force an active ITCZ. Lag correlations showed TOVS to be more persistent than the models. TOVS also showed a smoother lag trend, but all products appeared to have adequate ability to react to changes in the atmosphere over time.

Coe, Thomas Eddy↗

Transfer-Learnt Energy Models for Predicting Electricity Consumption in Buildings with Limited and Sparse Field Data

Modeling energy consumption is critical for energy-efficient utilization of the electric appliances in a building, smart grid programs (like demand-response), and many other smart home applications. State-of-the-art energy modeling techniques either rely on theoretical models, or extensive instrumentation of the building envelope to gather ``big" data to train a deep neural network. While theoretical models are often limited by their estimation accuracy, it is not always feasible to gather a significant amount of field data. In this paper, we explore transfer learning-based strategies to train much more accurate model for energy estimation when using a sparse field data. We transferred knowledge, in the form of data and parameters, from the simulation framework to the field data. We evaluated the efficacy of our approach on field data collected from six commercial buildings and our results indicate that transfer learning-based models trained over one month data can perform comparative (and in some cases better) than the state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning solutions.

Jain, Milan↗

Development of the Ames Global Hyperspectral Synthetic Dataset

This study develops the surface BRDF (bidirectional reflectance distribution function) product of the Ames Global Hyperspectral Synthetic Dataset (AGHSD), based on the corresponding MODIS products, to support the NASA Surface Biology and Geology mission development. A main challenge in deriving a hyperspectral dataset from the multi-band satellite products is how to identify a succinct yet robust algorithm that allow us to infer BRDF at unobserved wavelengths based on the few observed bands. Using the theories of radiative transfer in vegetation canopies, we arrive at a simple equation that accurately approximates hyperspectral surface BRDF as the weighted sum of components from the soil and the vegetation. Each of the components is modeled by the product of the spectrally-dependent optical properties of a surface element (the spectra of the soil surface reflectance, the leaf single albedo, or the canopy scattering coefficient) and a spectrally-independent bidirectional scattering function. The optical properties of the soil and the vegetation can be obtained from existing spectral libraries or model simulations. The bidirectional scattering functions are represented by the Ross-Thick-Li-Sparse BRDF model, where the linear coefficients are estimated with regression analysis from the multi-band MODIS data. We validate the algorithm with simulations by Monte Carlo Ray Tracing model experiments, and the results are highly consistent with the theoretic derivation. We apply the algorithm to generate the AGHSD BRDF product at 1km and 8-day resolutions for the year of 2019. The results are biogeochemically and physically coherent and consistent, and thus serve the goal to support the science and application development of the SBG community.

Hyperspectral↗

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A regression algorithm for accelerated lattice QCD that exploits sparse inference on the D-Wave quantum annealer

We propose a regression algorithm that utilizes a learned dictionary optimized for sparse inference on a D-Wave quantum annealer. In this regression algorithm, we concatenate the independent and dependent variables as a combined vector, and encode the high-order correlations between them into a dictionary optimized for sparse reconstruction. On a test dataset, the dependent variable is initialized to its average value and then a sparse reconstruction of the combined vector is obtained in which the dependent variable is typically shifted closer to its true value, as in a standard inpainting or denoising task. Here, a quantum annealer, which can presumably exploit a fully entangled initial state to better explore the complex energy landscape, is used to solve the highly non-convex sparse coding optimization problem. The regression algorithm is demonstrated for a lattice quantum chromodynamics simulation data using a D-Wave 2000Q quantum annealer and good prediction performance is achieved. The regression test is performed using six different values for the number of fully connected logical qubits, between 20 and 64. The scaling results indicate that a larger number of qubits gives better prediction accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Poisson hurdle model-based method for clustering microbiome features

Abstract Motivation High-throughput sequencing technologies have greatly facilitated microbiome research and have generated a large volume of microbiome data with the potential to answer key questions regarding microbiome assembly, structure and function. Cluster analysis aims to group features that behave similarly across treatments, and such grouping helps to highlight the functional relationships among features and may provide biological insights into microbiome networks. However, clustering microbiome data are challenging due to the sparsity and high dimensionality. Results We propose a model-based clustering method based on Poisson hurdle models for sparse microbiome count data. We describe an expectation–maximization algorithm and a modified version using simulated annealing to conduct the cluster analysis. Moreover, we provide algorithms for initialization and choosing the number of clusters. Simulation results demonstrate that our proposed methods provide better clustering results than alternative methods under a variety of settings. We also apply the proposed method to a sorghum rhizosphere microbiome dataset that results in interesting biological findings. Availability and implementation R package is freely available for download at https://cran.r-project.org/package=PHclust. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SGD-Net: Efficient Model-Based Deep Learning with Theoretical Guarantees

Deep unfolding networks have recently gained popularity for solving imaging inverse problems. However, the computational and memory complexity of data-consistency layers within traditional deep unfolding networks scales with the number of measurements, limiting their applicability to large-scale imaging inverse problems. We propose SGD-Net as a new methodology for improving the efficiency of deep unfolding through stochastic approximations of the data-consistency layers. Our theoretical analysis shows that SGD-Net can be trained to approximate batch deep unfolding networks to an arbitrary precision. Our simulations on intensity diffraction tomography and sparse-view computed tomography show that SGD-Net can match the performance of the traditional batch network at a fraction of training and testing complexity.Deep unfolding networks have recently gained popularity for solving imaging inverse problems. However, the computational and memory complexity of data-consistency layers within traditional deep unfolding networks scales with the number of measurements, limiting their applicability to large-scale imaging inverse problems. We propose SGD-Net as a new methodology for improving the efficiency of deep unfolding through stochastic approximations of the data-consistency layers. Our theoretical analysis shows that SGD-Net can be trained to approximate batch deep unfolding networks to an arbitrary precision. Our simulations on intensity diffraction tomography and sparse-view computed tomography show that SGD-Net can match the performance of the traditional batch network at a fraction of training and testing complexity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. III. Imaging of the Galactic Center Supermassive Black Hole

We present the first event-horizon-scale images and spatiotemporal analysis of Sgr A* taken with the Event Horizon Telescope in 2017 April at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. Imaging of Sgr A* has been conducted through surveys over a wide range of imaging assumptions using the classical CLEAN algorithm, regularized maximum likelihood methods, and a Bayesian posterior sampling method. Different prescriptions have been used to account for scattering effects by the interstellar medium toward the Galactic center. Mitigation of the rapid intraday variability that characterizes Sgr A* has been carried out through the addition of a “variability noise budget” in the observed visibilities, facilitating the reconstruction of static full-track images. Our static reconstructions of Sgr A* can be clustered into four representative morphologies that correspond to ring images with three different azimuthal brightness distributions and a small cluster that contains diverse nonring morphologies. Based on our extensive analysis of the effects of sparse (u,v)-coverage, source variability, and interstellar scattering, as well as studies of simulated visibility data, we conclude that the Event Horizon Telescope Sgr A* data show compelling evidence for an image that is dominated by a bright ring of emission with a ring diameter of ∼50 μas, consistent with the expected “shadow” of a 4 × 10$^{6}$ M $_{⊙}$ black hole in the Galactic center located at a distance of 8 kpc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Error Characteristics and Scale Dependence of Current Satellite Precipitation Estimates Products in Hydrological Modeling

Satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs) are promising alternatives to gauge observations for hydrological applications (e.g., streamflow simulation), especially in remote areas with sparse observation networks. However, the existing SPEs products are still biased due to imperfections in retrieval algorithms, data sources and post-processing, which makes the effective use of SPEs a challenge, especially at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a distributed hydrological model to evaluate the simulated discharge from eight quasi-global SPEs at different spatial scales and explored their potential scale effects of SPEs on a cascade of basins ranging from approximately 100 to 130,000 km 2 . The results indicate that, regardless of the difference in the accuracy of various SPEs, there is indeed a scale effect in their application in discharge simulation. Specifically, when the catchment area is larger than 20,000 km2, the overall performance of discharge simulation emerges an ascending trend with the increase of catchment area due to the river routing and spatial averaging. Whereas below 20,000 km 2 , the discharge simulation capability of the SPEs is more randomized and relies heavily on local precipitation accuracy. Our study also highlights the need to evaluate SPEs or other precipitation products (e.g., merge product or reanalysis data) not only at the limited station scale, but also at a finer scale depending on the practical application requirements. Here we have verified that the existing SPEs are scale-dependent in hydrological simulation, and they are not enough to be directly used in very fine scale distributed hydrological simulations (e.g., flash flood). More advanced retrieval algorithms, data sources and bias correction methods are needed to further improve the overall quality of SPEs.

DTVGM↗

Active learning of reactive Bayesian force fields applied to heterogeneous catalysis dynamics of H/Pt

Abstract Atomistic modeling of chemically reactive systems has so far relied on either expensive ab initio methods or bond-order force fields requiring arduous parametrization. Here, we describe a Bayesian active learning framework for autonomous “on-the-fly” training of fast and accurate reactive many-body force fields during molecular dynamics simulations. At each time-step, predictive uncertainties of a sparse Gaussian process are evaluated to automatically determine whether additional ab initio training data are needed. We introduce a general method for mapping trained kernel models onto equivalent polynomial models whose prediction cost is much lower and independent of the training set size. As a demonstration, we perform direct two-phase simulations of heterogeneous H 2 turnover on the Pt(111) catalyst surface at chemical accuracy. The model trains itself in three days and performs at twice the speed of a ReaxFF model, while maintaining much higher fidelity to DFT and excellent agreement with experiment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Testing the PV-Theta Mapping Technique in a 3-D CTM Model Simulation

Mapping lower stratospheric ozone into potential vorticity (PV)- potential temperature (Theta) coordinates is a common technique employed to analyze sparse data sets. Ozone transformed into a flow-following dynamical coordinate system is insensitive to meteorological variations. Therefore data from a wide range of times/locations can be compared, so long as the measurements were made in the same airmass (as defined by PV). Moreover, once a relationship between ozone and PV/Theta is established, a full 3D ozone field can be estimated from this relationship and the 3D analyzed PV field. However, ozone data mapped in this fashion can be hampered by noisy PV fields, or "mis-matches" in the resolution and/or exact location of the ozone and PV measurements. In this study, we investigate the PV-ozone relationship using output from a recent 50-year run of the Goddard 3D chemical transport model (CTM). Model constituents are transported using off-line dynamics from the finite volume general circulation model (FVGCM). By using the internally consistent model PV and ozone fields, we minimize noise due to mis-matching and resolution issues. We calculate correlations between model ozone and PV throughout the stratosphere, and test the sensitivity of the technique to initial data resolution. To do this we degrade the model data to that of various satellite instruments, then compare the mapped fields derived from the sub-sampled data to the full resolution model data. With these studies we can determine appropriate limits for the PV-theta mapping technique in latitude, altitude, and as a function of original data resolution.

Frith, Stacey M.↗