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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Inferring demographic and selective histories from population genomic data using a 2-step approach in species with coding-sparse genomes: an application to human data

Abstract The demographic history of a population, and the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of newly arising mutations in functional genomic regions, are fundamental factors dictating both genetic variation and evolutionary trajectories. Although both demographic and DFE inference has been performed extensively in humans, these approaches have generally either been limited to simple demographic models involving a single population, or, where a complex population history has been inferred, without accounting for the potentially confounding effects of selection at linked sites. Taking advantage of the coding-sparse nature of the genome, we propose a 2-step approach in which coalescent simulations are first used to infer a complex multi-population demographic model, utilizing large non-functional regions that are likely free from the effects of background selection. We then use forward-in-time simulations to perform DFE inference in functional regions, conditional on the complex demography inferred and utilizing expected background selection effects in the estimation procedure. Throughout, recombination and mutation rate maps were used to account for the underlying empirical rate heterogeneity across the human genome. Importantly, within this framework it is possible to utilize and fit multiple aspects of the data, and this inference scheme represents a generalized approach for such large-scale inference in species with coding-sparse genomes.

Soni, Vivak (ORCID:0000000294969562)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Closures and Assimilation for Stiff Multiscale Random Dynamics

Here, we introduce a data-driven and physics-informed framework for propagating uncertainty in stiff, multiscale random ordinary differential equations (RODEs) driven by correlated (colored) noise. Unlike systems subjected to Gaussian white noise, a deterministic equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of RODE state variables does not exist in closed form. Moreover, such an equation would require as many phase-space variables as there are states in the RODE system. To alleviate this curse of dimensionality, we instead derive exact, albeit unclosed, reduced-order PDF (RoPDF) equations for low-dimensional observables/quantities of interest. The unclosed terms take the form of state-dependent conditional expectations, which are directly estimated from data at sparse observation times. However, for systems exhibiting stiff, multiscale dynamics, data sparsity introduces regression discrepancies that compound during RoPDF evolution. This is overcome by introducing a kinetic-like defect term to the RoPDF equation, which is learned by assimilating in sparse, low-fidelity RoPDF estimates. Two assimilation methods are considered, namely nudging and deep neural networks, which are successfully tested against Monte Carlo simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Developing Data-Driven Synthetic Infrastructure Models for Resilience Analysis

Research on infrastructure resilience has produced promising methods to simulate and optimize complex networks to improve performance. However, restrictions on sharing infrastructure models and the steep cost of developing and maintaining infrastructure models presents a roadblock to adoption. To overcome this limitation, this research focuses on methods to create data-driven infrastructure models that will help improve infrastructure resilience and security. The analysis couples incomplete utility data, geospatial data, machine learning, and synthetic network generation methods to rapidly develop and update infrastructure models. The methods are validated using realistic utility models and site-specific data, with a focus on Puerto Rico due to its unique infrastructure challenges and available data. This research highlights promising opportunities for the use of synthetic network generation and machine learning to create infrastructure models when very little data is available. Results demonstrate that hybrid methods, which combine sparse utility data with synthetic models, can enhance model accuracy, and machine learning can predict model attributes using training data from other models. However, the complexity of infrastructure systems means that even minor changes in network connectivity can significantly impact simulation results. Resilience analysis using synthetic infrastructure models shows that while some system behaviors are preserved, the magnitude of disruptions may not be accurately represented, indicating the need for more research and validation before using synthetic models for critical infrastructure investment decisions. The framework outlined in this report represents a significant advance to infrastructure model development and could be applied to additional domains and sites. Future research will continue to streamline and validate methods to help reduce roadblocks to resilience analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are identifying hidden geothermal resources in the USA and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many non-obvious processes and parameters could characterize geothermal resources and could control the ultimate energy potential of geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize geothermal resources, but this data is sparse and multi-scale. This has hindered attempts to leverage the datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) give promise to overcome these issues. Modern ML methods and tools can (1) analyze large datasets, (2) assimilate model ensembles that include a multitude of inputs and outputs, (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning between sites with different data quality, (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures from field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. In this work, we implement ML-based geothermal exploration and an enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tool to achieve the above goals. Our exploration tool is GeoThermalCloud (GTC) EGS design tool is GeoDT-ML. GTC (github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. It enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. GeoDT-ML (github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/) adds coupling to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git) for stochastic EGS design optimization and performance prediction. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. Contributors to this effort include LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transformer-powered surrogates close the ICF simulation-experiment gap with extremely limited data

Abstract Recent advances in machine learning, specifically transformer architecture, have led to significant advancements in commercial domains. These powerful models have demonstrated superior capability to learn complex relationships and often generalize better to new data and problems. This paper presents a novel transformer-powered approach for enhancing prediction accuracy in multi-modal output scenarios, where sparse experimental data is supplemented with simulation data. The proposed approach integrates transformer-based architecture with a novel graph-based hyper-parameter optimization technique. The resulting system not only effectively reduces simulation bias, but also achieves superior prediction accuracy compared to the prior method. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on inertial confinement fusion experiments, where only 10 shots of real-world data are available, as well as synthetic versions of these experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthetic method of analogues for emerging infectious disease forecasting

The Method of Analogues (MOA) has gained popularity in the past decade for infectious disease forecasting due to its non-parametric nature. In MOA, the local behavior observed in a time series is matched to the local behaviors of several historical time series. The known values that directly follow the historical time series that best match the observed time series are used to calculate a forecast. This non-parametric approach leverages historical trends to produce forecasts without extensive parameterization, making it highly adaptable. However, MOA is limited in scenarios where historical data is sparse. This limitation was particularly evident during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, where the emerging global epidemic had little-to-no historical data. In this work, we propose a new method inspired by MOA, called the Synthetic Method of Analogues (sMOA). sMOA replaces historical disease data with a library of synthetic data that describe a broad range of possible disease trends. This model circumvents the need to estimate explicit parameter values by instead matching segments of ongoing time series data to a comprehensive library of synthetically generated segments of time series data. We demonstrate that sMOA has competitive performance with state-of-the-art infectious disease forecasting models, out-performing 78% of models from the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub in terms of averaged Mean Absolute Error and 76% of models from the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub in terms of averaged Weighted Interval Score. Additionally, we introduce a novel uncertainty quantification methodology designed for the onset of emerging epidemics. Developing versatile approaches that do not rely on historical data and can maintain high accuracy in the face of novel pandemics is critical for enhancing public health decision-making and strengthening preparedness for future outbreaks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Expanding the Domain of Applicability of Machine Learning Models with Limited Data for Drug Property Prediction

Accurate machine learning models for predicting small molecule interactions with biological targets are essential for therapeutic discovery, biothreat response, and computational drug design, but their performance is often limited for understudied targets with sparse experimental data. To address this challenge, we developed and evaluated methods to improve molecular property prediction under low-data conditions, using the NimA-related kinase (NEK) family as a proof-of-concept. This work focused on two complementary goals within the ATOM Modeling PipeLine (AMPL) and the Generative Molecular Design (GMD) loop: expanding model applicability through transfer learning, representation learning, feature scaling, sampling strategies, and active-learning-inspired compound selection; and enabling efficient virtual screening to prioritize compounds that balance predicted activity, design objectives, and synthetic accessibility.

organic↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nucleon axial-vector form factor and radius from radiatively corrected antineutrino scattering data

The nucleon axial-vector form factor, 𝐺 𝐴 , is critical to determine the electroweak interactions of leptons with nucleons. Important examples of processes influenced by 𝐺 𝐴 are elastic (anti)neutrino-nucleon scattering and muon capture by the proton. Sparse experimental data results in a large uncertainty on the momentum dependence of 𝐺 𝐴 and has motivated the consideration of new experimental probes and first-principles lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) evaluations. The comparison of new and precise theoretical predictions for 𝐺 𝐴 with future experimental data necessitates the application of radiative corrections to experimentally observable processes. We apply these corrections in the extraction of 𝐺 𝐴 and the associated axial-vector radius from the recent MINERvA antineutrino-hydrogen data, compare the effects from radiative corrections to other uncertainties in neutrino scattering experiments, and discuss the comparison of lattice QCD evaluations to experimental measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unlocking hidden information in sparse small-angle neutron scattering measurements

Hypothesis Small-Angle Neutron Scattering (SANS) is a powerful technique for studying soft matter systems such as colloids, polymers, and lyotropic phases, providing nanoscale structural insights. However, its effectiveness is limited by low neutron flux, leading to long acquisition times and noisy data. Here, we hypothesize that Bayesian statistical inference using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) can reconstruct high-fidelity scattering data from sparse measurements by leveraging intensity smoothness and continuity. Experiments and Simulations The method was benchmarked computationally and validated through SANS experiments on various soft matter systems, including wormlike micelles, colloidal suspensions, polymeric structures, and lyotropic phases. GPR-based inference was applied to both experimental and synthetic data to evaluate its effectiveness in noise reduction and intensity reconstruction. Findings GPR significantly enhances SANS data quality and therefore reducing measurement times by up to two orders of magnitude. This cost-effective approach maximizes experimental efficiency, enabling high-throughput studies and real-time monitoring of dynamic systems. It is particularly beneficial for weakly scattering and time-sensitive studies. Beyond SANS, this framework applies to other low-SNR techniques, including laboratory-based small-angle X-ray scattering and various dynamical scattering methods. Furthermore, it offers transformative potential for compact neutron sources, enhancing their viability for structural analysis in resource-limited settings.

Small angle neutron scattering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Derivation of physical equations for high-speed laser welding using large language models

It is challenging to formulate complex physical phenomena that occur in a manufacturing process, particularly when the available data are limited, rendering conventional data-driven approaches ineffective. This study aims to predict humping onset in high-speed laser welding by introducing a novel framework, namely text-to-equations generative pre-trained transformer (T2EGPT). This method leverages the capabilities of large language models (LLMs), in combination with sparse experimental data and enriched literature data, to derive an interpretable and generalizable equation for predicting humping initiation. By capturing key correlations among physical parameters, T2EGPT generates a compact and dimensionless expression that accurately predicts hump formation. The equation reveals that humping arises from the interplay between inertia-driven backward melt flow and capillary-driven surface stabilization, where inertial forces drive molten metal backward and capillary forces resist surface deformation. Furthermore, compared to traditional data-driven models, T2EGPT demonstrates enhanced predictive accuracy and cross-material transferability. More broadly, this study highlights the potential of LLMs to integrate textual information with data-driven discovery, enabling the extraction of physical laws in data-scarce scientific domains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

AIVT: Inference of turbulent thermal convection from measured 3D velocity data by physics-informed Kolmogorov-Arnold networks

We propose the artificial intelligence velocimetry-thermometry (AIVT) method to reconstruct a continuous and differentiable representation of the temperature and velocity in turbulent convection from measured three-dimensional (3D) velocity data. AIVT is based on physics-informed Kolmogorov-Arnold networks and trained by optimizing a loss function that minimizes residuals of the velocity data, boundary conditions, and governing equations. We apply AIVT to a set of simultaneously measured 3D temperature and velocity data of Rayleigh-Bénard convection, obtained by combining particle image thermometry and Lagrangian particle tracking. This enables us to directly compare machine learning results to true volumetric, simultaneous temperature and velocity measurements. We demonstrate that AIVT can reconstruct and infer continuous, instantaneous velocity and temperature fields and their gradients from sparse experimental data at a high resolution, providing an additional approach for understanding thermal turbulence.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increasing the Scale of the Mass Spectrometry Query Language Compendium with Explainable AI

A significant bottleneck in metabolomics data interpretation is the effective use of domain knowledge to assign structural information based on fragmentation patterns. The mass spectrometry query language (MassQL) aims to make this process accessible and applicable across multiple analysis platforms. While advanced computational methods are capable of predicting compound structures from fragmentation data, AI/ML approaches often rely on complex, opaque criteria that are difficult to interpret or modify. As a result, their predictive patterns cannot be readily translated into human-readable rules, such as those used in MassQL. Here, in this study, we introduce ChemEcho, a machine learning embedding method that converts tandem mass spectrometry data into sparse feature vectors containing peak and neutral mass subformulae to enhance explainable AI/ML-based methods. An advantage of this approach is that decision trees trained using these feature vectors can be directly translated to MassQL. Using a battery of decision trees trained using ChemEcho embeddings to predict molecular attributes, we generated over 1500 MassQL queries for 765 molecular features and evaluated their precision and recall. From these queries, the 50 highest-performing queries were integrated into the MassQL compendium. This set of generated MassQL queries included environmentally and biologically relevant classes such as PFAS and molecules containing phosphate or sulfate substructures. To illustrate the impact these queries would have on a typical metabolomics experiment, these MassQL queries were applied to a public metabolomics data set─resulting in a marked increase in the structural information derived from tandem mass spectra. Access and reuse of these queries is expected to enhance structural annotation in untargeted experiments, leading to more specific claims and advancing many applications in metabolomics.

Harwood, Thomas V. [USDOE Joint Genome Institute (↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forecasting high-dimensional spatio-temporal systems from sparse measurements

This paper introduces a new neural network architecture designed to forecast high-dimensional spatio-temporal data using only sparse measurements. The architecture uses a two-stage end-to-end framework that combines neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) with vision transformers. Initially, our approach models the underlying dynamics of complex systems within a low-dimensional space; and then it reconstructs the corresponding high-dimensional spatial fields. Many traditional methods involve decoding high-dimensional spatial fields before modeling the dynamics, while some other methods use an encoder to transition from high-dimensional observations to a latent space for dynamic modeling. In contrast, our approach directly uses sparse measurements to model the dynamics, bypassing the need for an encoder. This direct approach simplifies the modeling process, reduces computational complexity, and enhances the efficiency and scalability of the method for large datasets. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through applications to various spatio-temporal systems, including fluid flows and global weather patterns. Although sparse measurements have limitations, our experiments reveal that they are sufficient to forecast system dynamics accurately over long time horizons. Our results also indicate that the performance of our proposed method remains robust across different sensor placement strategies, with further improvements as the number of sensors increases. This robustness underscores the flexibility of our architecture, particularly in real-world scenarios where sensor data is often sparse and unevenly distributed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven analysis of dipole strength functions using artificial neural networks

Here, we present a data-driven analysis of dipole strength functions across the nuclear chart, employing an artificial neural network to model nuclear dipole responses. We train the network on a dataset of experimentally measured dipole strength functions for 216 different nuclei. To assess its predictive capability, we test the trained model on an additional set of 10 new nuclei, where experimental data exist. We demonstrate that the artificial neural network not only accurately reproduces known data but also identifies potential inconsistencies in experimental datasets, indicating which results may warrant further review or possible rejection. For nuclei where experimental data are sparse or unavailable, the network confirms theoretical calculations, reinforcing its utility as a predictive tool in nuclear physics. Finally, utilizing the predicted electric dipole polarizability, we extract the value of the symmetry energy at saturation density and find it consistent with results from the literature.

artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2024

On a Simplified Approach to Achieve Parallel Performance and Portability Across CPU and GPU Architectures

This paper presents software advances to easily exploit computer architectures consisting of a multi-core CPU and CPU+GPU to accelerate diverse types of high-performance computing (HPC) applications using a single code implementation. The paper describes and demonstrates the performance of the open-source C++ matrix and array (MATAR) library that uniquely offers: (1) a straightforward syntax for programming productivity, (2) usable data structures for data-oriented programming (DOP) for performance, and (3) a simple interface to the open-source C++ Kokkos library for portability and memory management across CPUs and GPUs. The portability across architectures with a single code implementation is achieved by automatically switching between diverse fine-grained parallelism backends (e.g., CUDA, HIP, OpenMP, pthreads, etc.) at compile time. The MATAR library solves many longstanding challenges associated with easily writing software that can run in parallel on any computer architecture. This work benefits projects seeking to write new C++ codes while also addressing the challenges of quickly making existing Fortran codes performant and portable over modern computer architectures with minimal syntactical changes from Fortran to C++. We demonstrate the feasibility of readily writing new C++ codes and modernizing existing codes with MATAR to be performant, parallel, and portable across diverse computer architectures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of an event-driven 3FI ASIC for spectroscopic X-ray detection with synchrotron radiation

The novel design and evaluation on the NSLS-II beamline of the 3FI application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) bump-bonded to a simple, planar, 2D segmented silicon sensor are presented. The ASIC was developed for full-field fluorescence spectral X-ray imaging (3FI). It is a small-scale prototype that features a square array of 32 × 32 pixels, and the size of the pixels is 100 µm × 100 µm. The ASIC was implemented in a 65 nm CMOS integrated circuit fabrication process. Each pixel incorporates a charge-sensitive amplifier, a shaping filter, a discriminator, a peak detector and a sample-and-hold circuit, allowing detection of events and storage of signal amplitudes. The system operates in a frameless event-driven readout mode, outputting analog values for threshold-triggered events, allowing high-speed multi-element X-ray fluorescence data acquisition. The 3FI ASIC achieves per-channel spectrometric performance at a power consumption of only 200 µW per pixel, with nearly all dissipation confined to the analog front-end. An energy resolution is measured at the level of 308 eV full width at half-maximum (FWHM) at 8.04 keV (Cu Kα), and 138 eV FWHM at 3.69 keV (Ca Kα). This per-pixel capability makes the prototype suitable for in situ trace element microanalysis in biological and environmental studies. Moreover, the frameless architecture of the detector is designed to address limitations of conventional X-ray fluorescence microscopy, which typically requires mechanical scanning, by enabling continuous high-throughput data acquisition in future full-field implementations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accurate data-driven surrogates of dynamical systems for forward propagation of uncertainty

Stochastic collocation (SC) is a well-known non-intrusive method of constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification. In dynamical systems, SC is especially suited for full-field uncertainty propagation that characterizes the distributions of the high-dimensional solution fields of a model with stochastic input parameters. However, due to the highly nonlinear nature of the parameter-to-solution map in even the simplest dynamical systems, the constructed SC surrogates are often inaccurate. Here, this work presents an alternative approach, where we apply the SC approximation over the dynamics of the model, rather than the solution. By combining the data-driven sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics framework with SC, we construct dynamics surrogates and integrate them through time to construct the surrogate solutions. We demonstrate that the SC-over-dynamics framework leads to smaller errors, both in terms of the approximated system trajectories as well as the model state distributions, when compared against full-field SC applied to the solutions directly. We present numerical evidence of this improvement using three test problems: a chaotic ordinary differential equation, and two partial differential equations from solid mechanics.

42 ENGINEERING↗