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Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Solving the auroral-arc-generator question by using an electron beam to unambiguously connect critical magnetospheric measurements to auroral images

Here, an active mapping mission is described that unambiguously connects measurements in the Earth's magnetosphere to visible aurora in the atmosphere. The core of the mission is an electron-beam source operated on a spacecraft in the equatorial magnetosphere, with the electron beam traveling along the Earth's magnetic-field lines to the atmosphere, depositing its energy to create an optical beam-spot in the atmosphere at the footpoint of the spacecraft's magnetic-field line. This optical spot can be imaged by ground-based cameras, putting the location of the spacecraft's magnetic footpoint into the context of the optical aurora. Scientific instruments carried on the spacecraft make critical measurements of the properties of the magnetosphere at the locations where the magnetosphere powers the aurora, allowing the determination of the plasma-physics mechanisms by which the magnetosphere drives the aurora, in particular answering the outstanding question of how the magnetosphere drives low-latitude auroral arcs. Long-standing questions in magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling that have not been answered because we could not unambiguously connect locations in the magnetosphere with their image in the ionosphere will finally be addressed. In this paper the properties of a “standard” growth-phase auroral arc are collected, theories of the magnetospheric generation of auroral arcs are reviewed, and critical magnetospheric measurements to discern the mechanisms that drive auroral arcs are determined. Further, the plasma physics of the experiment is investigated, including spacecraft-charging mitigation, beam stability, beam scattering, and electron orbit theory. Tradeoffs (keV versus MeV) concerning the energy of the electron beam are enumerated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

On the Short-scale Spatial Variability of Electron Inflows in Electron-only Magnetic Reconnection in the Turbulent Magnetosheath Observed by MMS

We investigate the detailed properties of electron inflow in an electron-only reconnection event observed by the four Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft in the Earth's turbulent magnetosheath downstream of the quasi-parallel bow shock. The lack of ion coupling was attributed to the small-scale sizes of the current sheets, and the observed bidirectional super-Alfvénic electron jets indicate that the MMS spacecraft crossed the reconnecting current sheet on both sides of an active X-line. Remarkably, the MMS spacecraft observed the presence of large asymmetries in the two electron inflows, with the inflows (normal to the current sheet) on the two sides of the reconnecting current layer differing by as much as a factor of four. Furthermore, even though the four MMS spacecraft were separated by less than seven electron skin depths, the degree of inflow asymmetry was significantly different at the different spacecraft. The asymmetry in the inflow speeds was larger with increasing distances downstream from the reconnection site, and the asymmetry was opposite on the two sides of the X-line. We compare the MMS observations with a 2D kinetic particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation and find that the asymmetry in the inflow speeds stems from in-plane currents generated via the combination of reconnection-mediated inflows and parallel flows along the magnetic separatrices in the presence of a large guide field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

High-speed Boulders and the Debris Field in DART Ejecta

On 2022 September 26 the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft collided with Dimorphos, the moon of the near-Earth asteroid 65803 Didymos, in a full-scale demonstration of a kinetic impactor concept. The companion Light Italian Cubesat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube) spacecraft documented the aftermath, capturing images of the expansion and evolution of the ejecta from 29 to 243 s after the impact. We present results from our analyses of these observations, including an improved reduction of the data and new absolute calibration, an updated LICIACube trajectory, and a detailed description of the events and phenomena that were recorded throughout the flyby. One notable aspect of the ejecta was the existence of clusters of boulders, up to 3.6 m in radius, that were ejected at speeds of up to 52 m s −1 . Our analysis of the spatial distribution of 104 of these boulders suggests that they are likely the remnants of larger boulders shattered by the DART spacecraft in the first stages of the impact. The amount of momentum contained in these boulders is more than 3 times that of the DART spacecraft, and it is directed primarily to the south, almost perpendicular to the DART trajectory. Recoil of Dimorphos from the ejection of these boulders has the potential to change its orbital plane by up to a degree and to impart a non-principal-axis component to its rotation state. Damping timescales for these phenomena are such that the Hera spacecraft, arriving at the system in 2026, should be able to measure these effects.

asteroid dynamics↗

Sampling Size Optimization for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

Planetary protection (PP) is a discipline that focuses on minimizing the biological contamination of spacecraft to ensure compliance with international policy. Precise estimation of bioburden - the total number of microbes in or on spacecraft hardware – and the bioburden density are of utmost importance for PP. Such estimation is the way concordance with requirements is demonstrated, and it is critical for quantifying the potential risk of inadvertently contaminating other planetary bodies. Although a suite of molecular techniques have been used to thoroughly characterize and profile the microbiome of various cleanroom environments and spacecraft, the gold standard remains the physical enumeration of microbes via culturing of samples directly taken from spacecraft and associated surfaces. However, due to technical, budgetary, and programmatic constraints, only a manageable portion (around 10%) of the entire spacecraft surface is directly sampled with cotton swabs or wipes. To generate the bioburden current best estimate (CBE) for components not directly verifiable, the accepted approach is to apply a NASA-defined bioburden estimate based on the components’ manufacturing or assembly environment. This approach utilizes a prespecified bioburden density estimation that applies a maximum value across the total surface area of the specified component. For hardware components that underwent similar assembly processes, an implied bioburden is adopted for all components, based on a direct verification of a representative component within the same lot. Once all components have a CBE, the bioburden estimates are generated. In previous publication [ 1], we have shown that statistical risks quantifying the accuracy of the estimates for sampled, prespecified, and implied components can be derived and ranked. For mean squared error (MSE) function, the risks are available analytically and hence a cost function can be obtained to optimize the risks with respect to the sampling area and sampling cost. Since the sampling area and sampling cost are two complimentary variables, their sum will have a well-defined minimum. This paper presents the multivariate optimization of the integrated risk of an empirical Bayes estimator to determine the optimal sampling schedule for a given number of components. It is assumed that given a number of components, N, the bioburden density for each component can either be sampled, implied, or prespecified. The multivariate optimization searches through different options to sample, imply or prespecify the bioburden density for a component, and account for the component’s surface area and cost of sampling. The idea of the optimization is based on the observation that the statistical risk of using an estimator is a monotonically decreasing function of the sampled area. The larger the sampled area, the lower the risk of using the estimator as the estimator becomes more and more accurate as the sampling area increases. On the other hand, the cost of sampling is monotonically increasing as the sampled surface grows. This makes the risk and total cost of sampling complimentary variables which can be counterbalanced to achieve an optimal overall value with respect to the sampled surface. In this paper, the integrated risk has been used to quantify the accuracy of the estimator. This risk has been selected because it depends on neither the true value of the parameter nor on the collected data. The cost of each sample was also available to obtain the total cost of sampling of N components. The paper will present the results based on computer-simulated data as well as the data collected during the InSight mission. The computer-simulated data have N components with randomly generated total areas and each component assigned to one of the three categories according to the method of estimating of bioburden density: sampled, implied, or prespecified. The cost of sampling is also available. The cost of sampling is estimated based on a cost model provided by the planetary protection group at JPL. For this paper, the overall cost was assumed to be a linear function of exposure. The optimization process finds the allocation of the components to the three categories that minimizes the tradeoff between integrated risk and total cost. For the InSight data, a set of components is selected representing all three categories, and optimization is performed to determine if the performed allocation was optimal or if a better allocation could have been obtained. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt not only perform an accurate estimation of bioburden density but also do it in an optimal way.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The FIREBIRD-II CubeSat Mission (Focused Investigations of Relativistic Electron Burst Intensity, Range, and Dynamics)

FIREBIRD-II is a National Science Foundation funded CubeSat mission designed to study the scale size and energy spectrum of relativistic electron microbursts. The mission consists of two identical 1.5 U CubeSats in a low earth polar orbit, each with two solid state detectors that differ only in the size of their geometric factors and fields of view. Having two spacecraft in close orbit allows the scale size of microbursts to be investigated through the intra-spacecraft separation when microbursts are observed simultaneously on each unit. Each detector returns high cadence (10 s of ms) measurements of the electron population from 200 keV to >1 MeV across six energy channels. The energy channels were selected to fill a gap in the observations of the Heavy Ion Large Telescope instrument on the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer. FIREBIRD-II has been in orbit for 5 years and continues to return high quality data. After the first month in orbit, the spacecraft had separated beyond the expected scale size of microbursts, so the focus has shifted toward conjunctions with other magnetospheric missions. FIREBIRD-II has addressed all of its primary science objectives, and its long lifetime and focus on conjunctions has enabled additional science beyond the scope of the original mission. This paper presents a brief history of the FIREBIRD mission’s science goals, followed by a description of the instrument and spacecraft. The data products are then discussed along with some caveats necessary for proper use of the data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The integrated miniaturized electrostatic analyzer: A space plasma environment sensor

The integrated Miniaturized Electrostatic Analyzer (iMESA) was a satellite-based ionospheric sensor that operated on NASA’s Space Test Program Satellite (STPSat-3) from December 2013 to July 2019. The instrument’s scientific objective was to (1) measure the plasma density in low Earth orbit, (2) measure the plasma temperature in low Earth orbit, and (3) quantify the spacecraft potential with respect to the ambient plasma potential in the ionosphere. iMESA sampled the ionosphere every 10 s by measuring the ion current density through the ESA as a result of the motion of the spacecraft through the plasma. Current density spectra were transmitted to the ground where they were post-processed into ion density spectra and then analyzed numerically to determine the ion density, ion temperature, and spacecraft potential. This article discusses the instrument design and simulation, the determination of a geometric factor, and data processing procedures and evaluates the final data product with regard to the mission success criteria. Here, the ion density and ion temperature captured by the iMESA instrument are on the same order and range as the values predicted in the literature. The spacecraft potential was also quantified. The conclusion after the evaluation of the instrument’s data product is that the scientific mission is successful on all three points.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Mission Operations Center for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Space Science & Security Program

Space mission operations has grown in line with the development of new space and ground technology. Originally, the philosophy for a space mission was to keep the spacecraft as simple as possible and have as much of the mission complexity on the ground where engineers can fix, control and access things. This was mostly due to immature space technologies and associated risk, as well as cost to develop complex and capable ground stations was relatively cheaper than complex space missions. This led to large room withs multiple computers and an army of engineers and operators sitting at computers and monitoring specific spacecraft information during operations. With development of new space technologies, a lot of functions that were kept and constantly monitored on the ground have been automated and completely integrated into the spacecraft, reducing the number of operators and engineers needed to operate a mission. With the paradigm shift in increasing spacecraft technologies, improved computer technologies, and scaling down space mission size; the mission operations centers have also adapted to changes. More organizations are becoming space-faring institutions and have developed mission operations centers for their unique missions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Radio Frequency Transients Correlated with Electron Flux Measured On-Board the STP-Sat6

We analyzed transient electromagnetic signatures, referred to as spacecraft environment discharges (SEDs) or on-board discharges (OBDs), and the in-situ particle environment simultaneously measured by the Radio Frequency Sensor (RFS) and the Space and Atmospheric Burst Reporting System Z-plasma spectrometer (SABRS-ZPS), respectively. These sensors are on-board the U.S. Department of Defense Space Test Program Satellite 6 (STP-Sat6) in geostationary orbit. Radio frequency signatures of SEDs on STP-Sat6 have relatively high peak amplitudes; they often caused amplitude-saturation in the so-called high band (120–140 MHz frequency range) of the RFS likely due to the proximity of their source to the RFS’s dipole antennas. We examined the occurrence rate of SEDs reported by the RFS and its temporal relationship to electron flux in the 7.9–12.2 keV range. Peaks in SED count rates were time-correlated with peaks in electron flux. The electron-flux peaks appeared to lead the SED count rate peaks by 24–45 min for the 7.9–12.2 keV energies. This indicates that incidence of electrons at this relatively low-energy range likely resulted in ramping up of the charging of the spacecraft leading to periods of high occurrence rates of discharges in and around the spacecraft.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metagenomic Methods for Addressing NASA's Planetary Protection Policy Requirements on Future Missions: A Workshop Report

Molecular biology methods and technologies have advanced substantially over the past decade. These new molecular methods should be incorporated among the standard tools of planetary protection (PP) and could be validated for incorporation by 2026. To address the feasibility of applying modern molecular techniques to such an application, NASA conducted a technology workshop with private industry partners, academics, and government agency stakeholders, along with NASA staff and contractors. The technical discussions and presentations of the Multi-Mission Metagenomics Technology Development Workshop focused on modernizing and supplementing the current PP assays. The goals of the workshop were to assess the state of metagenomics and other advanced molecular techniques in the context of providing a validated framework to supplement the bacterial endospore-based NASA Standard Assay and to identify knowledge and technology gaps. In particular, workshop participants were tasked with discussing metagenomics as a stand-alone technology to provide rapid and comprehensive analysis of total nucleic acids and viable microorganisms on spacecraft surfaces, thereby allowing for the development of tailored and cost-effective microbial reduction plans for each hardware item on a spacecraft. Workshop participants recommended metagenomics approaches as the only data source that can adequately feed into quantitative microbial risk assessment models for evaluating the risk of forward (exploring extraterrestrial planet) and back (Earth harmful biological) contamination. Participants were unanimous that a metagenomics workflow, in tandem with rapid targeted quantitative (digital) PCR, represents a revolutionary advance over existing methods for the assessment of microbial bioburden on spacecraft surfaces. The workshop highlighted low biomass sampling, reagent contamination, and inconsistent bioinformatics data analysis as key areas for technology development. Finally, it was concluded that implementing metagenomics as an additional workflow for addressing concerns of NASA's robotic mission will represent a dramatic improvement in technology advancement for PP and will benefit future missions where mission success is affected by backward and forward contamination.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Collaborative Research Activities of the Arase and Van Allen Probes

This paper presents the highlights of joint observations of the inner magnetosphere by the Arase spacecraft, the Van Allen Probes spacecraft, and ground-based experiments integrated into spacecraft programs. The concurrent operation of the two missions in 2017–2019 facilitated the separation of the spatial and temporal structures of dynamic phenomena occurring in the inner magnetosphere. Because the orbital inclination angle of Arase is larger than that of Van Allen Probes, Arase collected observations at higher L-shells up to L ~ 10. After March 2017, similar variations in plasma and waves were detected by Van Allen Probes and Arase. We describe plasma wave observations at longitudinally separated locations in space and geomagnetically-conjugate locations in space and on the ground. The results of instrument intercalibrations between the two missions are also presented. Arase continued its normal operation after the scientific operation of Van Allen Probes completed in October 2019. The combined Van Allen Probes (2012-2019) and Arase (2017-present) observations will cover a full solar cycle. This will be the first comprehensive long-term observation of the inner magnetosphere and radiation belts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Interstellar Mapping And Acceleration Probe High Energy (IMAP-Hi) Neutral Atom Imager

The IMAP-Hi Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) Imager on NASA’s Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) mission (McComas et al. 2018a, 2025) is designed to measure ENAs from the global interaction between the heliosphere and the local interstellar medium (LISM). These ENAs are initially plasma ions of solar wind origin that are neutralized by charge exchange with the cold neutral atoms of LISM that freely flow through the heliosphere-LISM interaction region. IMAP-Hi consists of two identical single-pixel sensors, each covering the ENA spectral range from 0.44 keV to 15.6 keV over nine contiguous energy passbands and having an approximately conical field-of-view (FOV) of 4.1o full width at half maximum (FWHM). The Hi-45 sensor points 45o relative to the spacecraft spin axis from the antisunward direction; each spacecraft spin, it measures ENA intensity over a circular swath with half-cone angle 45o centered on the ecliptic plane. The Hi-90 sensor points 90o relative to the spin axis; each spacecraft spin, it measures ENA intensity over a great circle in the sky, sampling both the north and south ecliptic poles. As the IMAP spin vector is re-pointed daily toward the Sun, the ecliptic longitude of the swaths moves daily by ∼1o such that a full sky map is acquired by Hi-90 every six months and a complete low latitude (−45o to +45o) map is acquired by Hi-45 annually. The IMAP-Hi sensor design has direct heritage from the IBEX-Hi imager on the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission, with substantial improvements in energy range, energy resolution, angular resolution, signal-to-noise ratio, and, for ecliptic latitudes within ±45o, temporal resolution and exposure time. The global ENA maps acquired by IMAP-Hi partially overlap in energy and viewing with the ENA maps acquired by the IMAP-Lo and IMAP-Ultra ENA imagers, which we combine to answer fundamental questions about the structure and dynamics of the interaction of the heliosphere and the LISM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid deflection↗