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Revisiting the Effectiveness of Debris Mitigation by Back-Dating Fragmentation Events

Since 1961, more than 250 satellites have fragmented while in orbit about the Earth, from very low Earth orbit out to the geostationary belt. The problem of orbital debris has been recognized since at least the late 1970s, with the institution of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) in 1979 at the Johnson Space Center. Efforts to mitigate the growth of the orbital debris environment have mainly focused in two areas: the reduction and elimination of accidental explosions of spacecraft and rocket upper stages and the timely removal of spacecraft and rocket upper stages from orbit after completion of their missions. The ODPO continues to analyze the orbital population in orbit based on object type, mass, and other parameters of interest for characterizing the overall growth of objects in Earth’s orbit. Of the 268 known fragmentation events, 46 have occurred more than ten years after the affected satellites’ launch. These long-delayed breakups increase the population of orbital debris on the date of fragmentation, but we can also consider that the debris generated during that event could be attributed to the launch date of that satellite. We will present here an analysis of the historical growth of the low-Earth orbit debris environment, removing intentional fragmentation events, and examine the effectiveness of mitigation measures (such as passivation and reducing post-mission orbital lifetime).

Chris Ostrom

Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 13, Issue 4

Although NASA has conducted research on orbital debris since the 1960s, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office is now considered to have been established in October 1979, following the recognition by senior NASA officials of orbital debris as a space environmental issue and the allocation by NASA Headquarters Advanced Programs Office to the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center (JSC) of funds specifically dedicated for orbital debris investigations. In the 30 years since, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has pioneered the characterization of the orbital debris environment and its potential effects on current and future space systems, has developed comprehensive orbital debris mitigation measures, and has led efforts by the international aerospace community in addressing the challenges posed by orbital debris. In 1967 the Flight Analysis Branch at the Manned Spacecraft Center (renamed the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center in 1973) evaluated the risks of collisions between an Apollo spacecraft and orbital debris. Three years later the same group calculated collision risks for the forthcoming Skylab space station, which was launched in 1973. By 1976, the nucleus of NASA s yet-to-be-formed orbital debris research efforts, including Andrew Potter, Burton Cour-Palais, and Donald Kessler, was found in JSC s Environmental Effects Office, examining the potential threat of orbital debris to large space platforms, in particular the proposed Solar Power Satellites (SPS).

Liou, Jer-Chyi

Mission Success and Environmental Protection: Orbital Debris Considerations

The current U.S. National Space Policy specifically calls on U.S. Government entities "to follow the United States Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices, consistent with mission requirements and cost effectiveness, in the procurement and operation of spacecraft, launch services, and the operation of tests and experiments in space. Early assessment (pre-PDR) of orbital debris mitigation compliance is essential to minimize development impacts. Orbital debris mitigation practices today are the most effective means to protect the near-Earth space environment for future missions.

Johnson, Nicholas

A Summary of the NASA ISS Space Debris Collision Avoidance Program

Creating and implementing a process for the mitigation of the impact hazards due to cornets and asteroids will prove to be a complex and involved process. The closest similar program is the collision avoidance process currently used for protection of the International Space Station (ISS). This process, in operation for over three years, has many similarities to the NEG risk problem. By reviewing the ISS program, a broader perspective on the complications of and requirements for a NEO risk mitigation program might be obtained. Specifically, any lessons learned and continuing issues of concern might prove useful in the development of a NEO risk assessment and mitigation program.

Frisbee, Joseph

Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has conducted are view of the historical record of high-risk conjunctions involving CARA-protected missions and evaluated whether (and how much) differential drag can provide effective mitigation. From this analysis, CARA has identified a rule of thumb: missions with perigees below 560 km capable of tripling their drag area for 72 hours(or a larger scale factor for a lesser amount of time) can reliably use differential drag to remediate high-risk events.

mission design

JSC Orbital Debris Website Description

Purpose: The website provides information about the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at JSC, which is the lead NASA center for orbital debris research. It is recognized world-wide for its leadership in addressing orbital debris issues. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has taken the international lead in conducting measurements of the environment and in developing the technical consensus for adopting mitigation measures to protect users of the orbital environment. Work at the center continues with developing an improved understanding of the orbital debris environment and measures that can be taken to control its growth. Major Contents: Orbital Debris research is divided into the following five broad efforts. Each area of research contains specific information as follows: 1) Modeling - NASA scientists continue to develop and upgrade orbital debris models to describe and characterize the current and future debris environment. Evolutionary and engineering models are described in detail. Downloadable items include a document in PDF format and executable software. 2) Measurements - Measurements of near-Earth orbital debris are accomplished by conducting ground-based and space-based observations of the orbital debris environment. The data from these sources provide validation of the environment models and identify the presence of new sources. Radar, optical and surface examinations are described. External links to related topics are provided. 3) Protection - Orbital debris protection involves conducting hypervelocity impact measurements to assess the risk presented by orbital debris to operating spacecraft and developing new materials and new designs to provide better protection from the environment with less weight penalty. The data from this work provides the link between the environment defined by the models and the risk presented by that environment to operating spacecraft and provides recommendations on design and operations procedures to reduce the risk as required. These data also help in the analysis and interpretation of impact features on returned spacecraft surfaces. 4) Mitigation - Controlling the growth of the orbital debris population is a high priority for NASA, the United States, and the major space-faring nations of the world to preserve near-Earth space for future generations. Mitigation measures can take the form of curtailing or preventing the creation of new debris, designing satellites to withstand impacts by small debris, and implementing operational procedures ranging from utilizing orbital regimes with less debris, adopting specific spacecraft attitudes, and even maneuvering to avoid collisions with debris. Downloadable items include several documents in PDF format and executable software.and 5) Reentry - Because of the increasing number of objects in space, NASA has adopted guidelines and assessment procedures to reduce the number of non-operational spacecraft and spent rocket upper stages orbiting the Earth. One method of postmission disposal is to allow reentry of these spacecraft, either from orbital decay (uncontrolled entry) or with a controlled entry. Orbital decay may be achieved by firing engines to lower the perigee altitude so that atmospheric drag will eventually cause the spacecraft to enter. However, the surviving debris impact footprint cannot be guaranteed to avoid inhabited landmasses. Controlled entry normally occurs by using a larger amount of propellant with a larger propulsion system to drive the spacecraft to enter the atmosphere at a steeper flight path angle. It will then enter at a more precise latitude, longitude, and footprint in a nearly uninhabited impact region, generally located in the ocean.

Johnson, Nicholas L.

Gossamer Technology to Deorbit LEO Non-Propulsion Fitted Satellite

Since 2004, CNES has decided to apply the end of life Code of Conduct rules to debris mitigation. Originally drawn up by the main European space agencies, it contains basic rules to be applied in space in order to limit the increase of orbital debris. In low Earth orbit, the rule is to limit in-orbit lifetime to 25 years after the end of the operational mission, or else to transfer to a graveyard orbit above 2000 km. In order to follow these instructions, a task force was set up in 2005 to find the best way to implement them on MICROSCOPE and CNES microsatellite family (MYRIADE). This 200-kg spacecraft should be launched in 2014 on a 790-km high circular orbit. Without targeted action, its natural re-entry would occur in 67 years. Two strategies to reduce this time period were compared: propulsive maneuvers at the end of the mission or the deployment of large surfaces to increase significantly the ballistic coefficient. At the end of the trade off, it was recommended: .. For the non-propulsive system fitted satellites, to use passive aerobraking by deployment of added surface, .. For satellites having propulsive subsystem in baseline for mission purposes, to keep sufficient propellant and implement specific maneuvers. The poster gives an overview of the process that led to the development of a deployable aerobraking wing using a lightweight aluminized Kapton membrane and an inflatable aluminum laminate boom. The main requirements; The trade off among various aerobraking solutions; The development plan. This technology presents a very attractive potential and it could be a first step in using of inflatable technology on spaces vehicles, before to deal with others more exigent applications.

Dupuy, C.

Orbital Debris Mitigation and CubeSats

The 2019 update to the U. S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices (ODMSP) included CubeSats as a special class of space operations for the first time. This is the first governmental-level policy document that calls for CubeSats to follow quantitative recommendations for orbital debris mitigation. While CubeSats were never exempt from such recommendations, mission designers often “under assess” CubeSats due to their small size and historically low level of stored energy. Qualitative assessments of debris potential are less applicable as miniaturized energy systems (propulsive and electrical) become more available and as the “CubeSat” label is applied to larger payloads. Of particular interest to the long-term evolution of the debris environment is the likelihood of accidental explosion or collision; we must also consider the risk to the human population from reentering spacecraft. We discuss the on-orbit history of CubeSats and present guidance to assist in designing for future compliance with the new standard practices.

Chris L. Ostrom

LightForce Photon-Pressure Collision Avoidance: Updated Efficiency Analysis Utilizing a Highly Parallel Simulation Approach

This paper provides an updated efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme. LightForce aims to prevent collisions on warning by utilizing photon pressure from ground based, commercial off the shelf lasers. Past research has shown that a few ground-based systems consisting of 10 kilowatt class lasers directed by 1.5 meter telescopes with adaptive optics could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. Our simulation approach utilizes the entire Two Line Element (TLE) catalogue in LEO for a given day as initial input. Least-squares fitting of a TLE time series is used for an improved orbit estimate. We then calculate the probability of collision for all LEO objects in the catalogue for a time step of the simulation. The conjunctions that exceed a threshold probability of collision are then engaged by a simulated network of laser ground stations. After those engagements, the perturbed orbits are used to re-assess the probability of collision and evaluate the efficiency of the system. This paper describes new simulations with three updated aspects: 1) By utilizing a highly parallel simulation approach employing hundreds of processors, we have extended our analysis to a much broader dataset. The simulation time is extended to one year. 2) We analyze not only the efficiency of LightForce on conjunctions that naturally occur, but also take into account conjunctions caused by orbit perturbations due to LightForce engagements. 3) We use a new simulation approach that is regularly updating the LightForce engagement strategy, as it would be during actual operations. In this paper we present our simulation approach to parallelize the efficiency analysis, its computational performance and the resulting expected efficiency of the LightForce collision avoidance system. Results indicate that utilizing a network of four LightForce stations with 20 kilowatt lasers, 85% of all conjunctions with a probability of collision Pc > 10 (sup -6) can be mitigated.

conjunction analysis

LightForce Photon-pressure Collision Avoidance: Efficiency Analysis in the Current Debris Environment and Long-Term Simulation Perspective

This work provides an efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme in the current debris environment and describes a simulation approach to assess its impact on the long-term evolution of the space debris environment. LightForce aims to provide just-in-time collision avoidance by utilizing photon pressure from ground-based industrial lasers. These ground stations impart minimal accelerations to increase the miss distance for a predicted conjunction between two objects. In the first part of this paper we will present research that investigates the short-term effect of a few systems consisting of 10kW class lasers directed by 1.5 m diameter telescopes using adaptive optics. The results found such a network of ground stations to mitigate more than 85 percent of conjunctions and could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. While these are impressive numbers that indicate LightForce's utility in the short-term, the remaining 15 percent of possible collisions contain (among others) conjunctions between two massive objects that would add large amount of debris if they collide. Still, conjunctions between massive objects and smaller objects can be mitigated. Hence we choose to expand the capabilities of the simulation software to investigate the overall effect of a network of LightForce stations on the long-term debris evolution. In the second part of this paper, we will present the planed simulation approach for that effort.

conjunction analysis

Characterizing the Space Debris Environment with a Variety of SSA Sensors

Damaging space debris spans a wide range of sizes and altitudes. Therefore no single method or sensor can fully characterize the space debris environment. Space debris researchers use a variety of radars and optical telescopes to characterize the space debris environment in terms of number, altitude, and inclination distributions. Some sensors, such as phased array radars, are designed to search a large volume of the sky and can be instrumental in detecting new breakups and cataloging and precise tracking of relatively large debris. For smaller debris sizes more sensitivity is needed which can be provided, in part, by large antenna gains. Larger antenna gains, however, produce smaller fields of view. Statistical measurements of the debris environment with less precise orbital parameters result. At higher altitudes, optical telescopes become the more sensitive instrument and present their own measurement difficulties. Space Situational Awareness, or SSA, is concerned with more than the number and orbits of satellites. SSA also seeks to understand such parameters as the function, shape, and composition of operational satellites. Similarly, debris researchers are seeking to characterize similar parameters for space debris to improve our knowledge of the risks debris poses to operational satellites as well as determine sources of debris for future mitigation. This paper will discuss different sensor and sensor types and the role that each plays in fully characterizing the space debris environment.

Stansbery, Eugene G.

The Disposal of Spacecraft and Launch Vehicle Stages in Low Earth Orbit

Spacecraft and launch vehicle stages abandoned in Earth orbit have historically been a primary source of debris from accidental explosions. In the future, such satellites will become the principal cause of orbital debris via inadvertent collisions. To curtail both the near-term and far-term risks posed by derelict spacecraft and launch vehicle stages to operational space systems, numerous national and international orbital debris mitigation guidelines specifically recommend actions which could prevent or limit such future debris generation. Although considerable progress has been made in implementing these recommendations, some changes to existing vehicle designs can be difficult. Moreover, the nature of some missions also can present technological and budgetary challenges to be compliant with widely accepted orbital debris mitigation measures.

Johnson, Nicholas L.

Orbital Debris Mitigation and CubeSats

The 2019 Update to the United States Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices (ODMSP) included CubeSats for the first time as a special class of space operations. This is the first governmental-level policy document that calls for CubeSats to follow quantitative recommendations for orbital debris mitigation. While CubeSats were never exempt from such recommendations, mission designers often under assess CubeSats due to their small size and historically low level of stored energy. Qualitative assessments of debris potential are less applicable as miniaturized energy systems (propulsive and electrical) become more available and as the “CubeSat” label is applied to larger payloads. Of particular interest to the long-term evolution of the debris environment is the likelihood of accidental explosion or collision; we must also consider the risk to the human population from reentering spacecraft. We discuss the on-orbit history of CubeSats and present guidance to assist in designing for future compliance with the new standard practices.

Chris L Ostrom

Lightforce Photon-Pressure Collision Avoidance: Efficiency Analysis in the Current Debris Environment and Long-Term Simulation Perspective

This work provides an efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme in the current debris environment and describes a simulation approach to assess its impact on the long-term evolution of the space debris environment. LightForce aims to provide just-in-time collision avoidance by utilizing photon pressure from ground-based industrial lasers. These ground stations impart minimal accelerations to increase the miss distance for a predicted conjunction between two objects. In the first part of this paper we will present research that investigates the short-term effect of a few systems consisting of 20-kilowatt-class lasers directed by 1.5-meter-diameter telescopes using adaptive optics. The results found such a network of ground stations to mitigate more than 85 percent of conjunctions and could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. While these are impressive numbers that indicate LightForce's utility in the short-term, the remaining 15 percent of possible collisions contain (among others) conjunctions between two massive objects that would add large amount of debris if they collide. Still, conjunctions between massive objects and smaller objects can be mitigated. Hence, we choose to expand the capabilities of the simulation software to investigate the overall effect of a network of LightForce stations on the long-term debris evolution. In the second part of this paper, we will present the planned simulation approach for that effort. For the efficiency analysis of collision avoidance in the current debris environment, we utilize a simulation approach that uses the entire Two Line Element (TLE) catalog in LEO for a given day as initial input. These objects are propagated for one year and an all-on-all conjunction analysis is performed. For conjunctions that fall below a range threshold, we calculate the probability of collision and record those values. To assess efficiency, we compare a baseline (without collision avoidance) conjunction analysis with an analysis where LightForce is active. Using that approach, we take into account that collision avoidance maneuvers could have effects on third objects. Performing all-on-all conjunction analyses for extended period of time requires significant computer resources; hence we implemented this simulation utilizing a highly parallel approach on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer.

space debris mitigation

Assessing Compliance with United States Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Guidelines

There are currently no exceptions or special considerations for CubeSats in the United States Government (USG) Orbital Debris (OD) Mitigation Guidelines. For all objects launched into space the 2010 United States Space Policy requires that any failure to comply with the USG OD Mitigation Guidelines requires approval by the head of the launching agency. In addition it requires that the US Secretary of State be notified of any non‐compliance. For these reasons it is important that missions consider these policies during their design phase. This paper will discuss methods to assess compliance with USG OD mitigation guidelines as they apply to CubeSat missions using tools such as the NASA Debris Assessment Software (DAS).

Kelley, R. L.

An Update on the Effectiveness of Postmission Disposal in LEO

Orbital debris mitigation measures have been developed to reduce the growth of the future debris population by the international space community over the past two decades. A major component in the overall mitigation strategy is postmission disposal (PMD). A key PMD element for the low Earth orbit (LEO, the region below 2000 km altitude) satellites is the 25-year decay rule. It is intended to limit the long-term presence of massive intact objects - rocket bodies (R/Bs) and spacecraft (S/C) in the environment. The effectiveness of the 25-year rule was well demonstrated and documented during the development of the mitigation measures. The orbital debris population in LEO, unfortunately, has significantly increased since that time. The objectives of this paper are to provide an updated assessment based on the 2012 LEO environment and to highlight the importance of the global compliance of the 25-year decay rule.

Liou, J.-C

Meteoroids and Orbital Debris: Effects on Spacecraft

The natural space environment is characterized by many complex and subtle phenomena hostile to spacecraft. The effects of these phenomena impact spacecraft design, development, and operations. Space systems become increasingly susceptible to the space environment as use of composite materials and smaller, faster electronics increases. This trend makes an understanding of the natural space environment essential to accomplish overall mission objectives, especially in the current climate of better/cheaper/faster. Meteoroids are naturally occurring phenomena in the natural space environment. Orbital debris is manmade space litter accumulated in Earth orbit from the exploration of space. Descriptions are presented of orbital debris source, distribution, size, lifetime, and mitigation measures. This primer is one in a series of NASA Reference Publications currently being developed by the Electromagnetics and Aerospace Environments Branch, Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory, Marshall Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Belk, Cynthia A.