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A Statistical Testing Approach for Quantifying Software Reliability; Application to an Example System

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) encourages the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technology in all regulatory matters, to the extent supported by the state-of-the-art in PRA methods and data. Although much has been accomplished in the area of risk-informed regulation, risk assessment for digital systems has not been fully developed. The NRC established a plan for research on digital systems to identify and develop methods, analytical tools, and regulatory guidance for (1) including models of digital systems in the PRAs of nuclear power plants (NPPs), and (2) incorporating digital systems in the NRC's risk-informed licensing and oversight activities. Under NRC's sponsorship, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) explored approaches for addressing the failures of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in the current NPP PRA framework. Specific areas investigated included PRA modeling digital hardware, development of a philosophical basis for defining software failure, and identification of desirable attributes of quantitative software reliability methods. Based on the earlier research, statistical testing is considered a promising method for quantifying software reliability. This paper describes a statistical software testing approach for quantifying software reliability and applies it to the loop-operating control system (LOCS) of an experimental loop of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Flexible Power Operation of a Nuclear Power Plant

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are becoming cost prohibitive to operate. This is due to historically low natural gas prices and wind and solar prices often being less than the marginal cost of operating baseload coal and NPPs, which sometimes forces NPPs to pay for the electricity they create. Thus, the feasibility of using part of the heat from an NPP to create other commodities such as hydrogen is being evaluated; operating in this way is called flexible power operation (FPO). To change the NPP design and operation, a license review must happen. Part of the review is the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) which proves the safety of the design and operation by identifying sequences of events that result in plant failure and estimating their likelihood of occurrence. A Level 1 PRA model that evaluates the risk of removing heat from the secondary side of NPP was created. The model was developed using Systems Analysis Program for Hands-On Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE 8) software to calculate core damage frequency (CDF). It is a fault tree that represents the possible pathways that could lead to a loss of steam inventory in the secondary loop. A loss of steam inventory can induce steam generator tube rupture or other events that activates response systems to avoid core damage. This is the main concern for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the group in the United States that licenses NPPs. This model will calculate a total CDF of any of these pathways occurring which will be compared to the baseline CDF in a generic NPP PRA for licensing support.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

An optimization model for collection, haul, transfer, treatment and disposal of infectious medical waste: Application to a Greek region

Highlights: • We developed an optimization model to minimize cost of infectious waste management. •Two different software were used for model solution. • Model optimizes locations and capacities of treatment plants and transfer stations. • The higher percentage of total cost was due to construction of the treatment plant. • Sensitivity analysis with respect to fuel cost and waste production was conducted. - Abstract: The objective of this work was to develop an optimization model to minimize the cost of a collection, haul, transfer, treatment and disposal system for infectious medical waste (IMW). The model calculates the optimum locations of the treatment facilities and transfer stations, their design capacities (t/d), the number and capacities of all waste collection, transport and transfer vehicles and their optimum transport path and the minimum IMW management system cost. Waste production nodes (hospitals, healthcare centers, peripheral health offices, private clinics and physicians in private practice) and their IMW production rates were specified and used as model inputs. The candidate locations of the treatment facilities, transfer stations and sanitary landfills were designated, using a GIS-based methodology. Specifically, Mapinfo software with exclusion criteria for non-appropriate areas was used for siting candidate locations for the construction of the treatment plant and calculating the distance and travel time of all possible vehicle routes. The objective function was a non-linear equation, which minimized the total collection, transport, treatment and disposal cost. Total cost comprised capital and operation costs for: (1) treatment plant, (2) waste transfer stations, (3) waste transport and transfer vehicles and (4) waste collection bins and hospital boxes. Binary variables were used to decide whether a treatment plant and/or a transfer station should be constructed and whether a collection route between two or more nodes should be followed. Microsoft excel software was used as installation platform of the optimization model. For the execution of the optimization routine, two completely different software were used and the results were compared, thus, resulting in higher reliability and validity of the results. The first software was Evolver, which is based on the use of genetic algorithms. The second one was Crystal Ball, which is based on Monte Carlo simulation. The model was applied to the Region of East Macedonia – Thrace in Greece. The optimum solution resulted in one treatment plant located in the sanitary landfill area of Chrysoupolis, required no transfer stations and had a total management cost of 38,800 €/month or 809 €/t. If a treatment plant is sited in the most eastern part of the Region, i.e., the industrial area of Alexandroupolis, the optimum solution would result in a transfer station of 23 m{sup 3}, located near Kavala General Hospital, and a total cost of 39,800 €/month or 831 €/t. A sensitivity analysis was conducted and two alternative scenarios were optimized. In the first scenario, a 15% rise in fuel cost and in the second scenario a 25% rise in IMW production were considered. At the end, a cost calculation in €/t/km for every type of vehicle used for haul and transfer was conducted. Also, the cost of the whole system was itemized and calculated in €/t/km and €/t. The results showed that the higher percentage of the total cost was due to the construction of the treatment plant.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Development and Validation of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for a Generic Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor

This study looks to develop and validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model for the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR) using INL’s Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) software. Validation against a General Atomics design involves matching event and fault trees to historical frequencies, with a goal of under 15% difference. The research aims to deliver a reliable PRA model to assess the safety of MHTGRs for use within high-temperature industrial applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Assessing the Heat Transfer Modeling Capabilities of CFD Software for Involute-Shaped Plate Research Reactors

The ongoing efforts to convert High-Performance Research Reactors (HPRRs) using Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) to Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) fuel require reliable thermal–hydraulic assessments of modified core designs. The involute-shaped fuel plates used in several major HPRRs present unique modeling challenges due to their compact core geometries and high heat flux conditions. This study evaluates the capability of three commercial CFD tools, STAR-CCM+, COMSOL, and ANSYS CFX, to predict cladding-to-coolant heat transfer using Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) methods within the thermal–hydraulic regimes of involute-shaped plate reactors. Broad sensitivity analysis was conducted across a range of reactor-relevant parameters using two turbulence models (k−ϵ and k−ω SST) and different near-wall treatment strategies. The results were benchmarked against the Sieder–Tate correlation and experimental data from historic studies. The codes produced consistent results, showing good agreement with the empirical correlation of Sieder–Tate and the experimental measurements. The findings support the use of these commercial CFD codes as effective tools for assessing the thermal–hydraulic performance of involute-shaped plate HPRRs and guide future LEU core development.

CFD↗

Improving Thermal Management Strategies for Data Centers: A Physical Testbed Incorporating Small Modular Reactor and Microreactor Technology

This study aims to accelerate the demonstration of various thermal management systems for data centers using nuclear-generated heat to enhance energy and grid reliability. Utilizing mobile containerized and stationary test beds at INL's High Performance Computing (HPC) facility, this project integrates with various nuclear-related energy systems testing facilities. Key components include immersion cooling apparatus, absorption chillers, and adjustable thermal management simulators. Tasks involve acquiring necessary hardware, sensors, and cooling apparatus, engaging with data center industry stakeholders, and providing a testing platform for algorithms, models, tools, and software. The objective is to expedite the deployment of nuclear-powered data centers, thereby improving energy reliability and affordability.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

A Computer Design Tool for Ceramic Receivers

Gen3 solar receivers and other components will experience a combination of high temperatures and high stress caused by thermal stress and internal pressure. Under these conditions metallic components, even those manufactured from nickel-based superalloys, have poor reliability. Engineering ceramics could be a solution, as these materials have excellent high temperature strength. However, accurately assessing the reliability of a ceramic component operating in these conditions requires an entirely different approach compared to metallic materials. This paper describes the implementation of statistical models for evaluating the reliability of high temperature ceramic components in srlife – an open-source software package for estimating the life of high temperature concentrating solar power equipment. This new capability allows users to make fair comparisons between competing metallic and ceramic component designs and to accurately assess the plant efficiency and economics of ceramic solar receivers and other components.

Messner, Mark (ORCID:0000000200404385)↗

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

There is a need for research into dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA) (i.e., simulation- or computation-based HRA), as many researchers have emphasized the importance of applying dynamic approaches to probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs). This study proposes the Procedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – Human Reliability Analysis (PRIMERA-HRA), a dynamic HRA approach based on the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This study suggests how this software can be used to model human actions and evaluate error probabilities. The applicability of this approach is also be investigated in light of an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario. This paper then discusses the major insights derived by comparing this dynamic HRA approach against the static one.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Forecasting Marine Sediment Properties with Geospatial Machine Learning

Using a combination of geospatial machine learning prediction and sediment thermodynamic/physical modeling, we have developed a novel software workflow to create probabilistic maps of geoacoustic and geomechanical sediment properties of the global seabed. This new technique for producing reliable estimates of seafloor properties can better support Naval operations relying on sonar performance and seabed strength, can constrain models of shallow tomographic structure important for nuclear treaty compliance monitoring/detection, and can provide constraints on the distribution and inventory of shallow methane gas and gas hydrate accumulations on the continental shelves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Bayesian and HRA-Aided Method for the Novel Reliability Analysis of Software

Technological advancements and nuclear power plant modernization has inspired considerable research in the areas of safety and reliability, yet there remains a lack of consensus for the reliability assessment of digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems. Motivated by the lack of consensus for reliability analysis methods, this work employs a novel framework that incorporates Bayesian, human reliability, and common-cause failure (CCF) modeling techniques. The novel framework allows the use of state-of-the-art or classical modeling techniques when accounting for human and CCF effects on system reliability. The Bayesian and HRA-Aided Method for the Reliability Analysis of Software (BAHAMAS) is demonstrated by a case study for the quantification of software hazards found in a previous analysis of a digital reactor trip system. The results demonstrate the ability of BAHAMAS to account for human activities during the software development life cycle and their influence on software reliability. BAHAMAS is a flexible tool for extending the coverage of conventional probabilistic risk assessments to include modernized digital I&C systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Rich-Text based PSA Model Transformation and Verification in RiskA

Nuclear Energy is one of the most possible alternative to fossil energy in large-scale. Nuclear safety is the lifeline of nuclear energy development, and has been an important part of national security, especially after the accident of Fukushima. On the basis of computer codes, reliability engineering and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PSA) is effective methods to improve the safety of nuclear power plants. After many years of development, the methodologies, applications and relevant soft programs have been quite sufficient in the area of nuclear safety. However, it is still difficult for the current PSA technologies and software to meet the needs of dealing with the problems of quantitatively public risk assessment in the digital society. Especially, there are so many software that adopted different modeling and analyzing methods, which brings difficulties to the comparison, evaluation or verification for different software and models. By using its own academic advantages, the advanced nuclear energy research team, i.e., FDS Team has invested a few hundreds person-years of independent research and development of a reliability and probabilistic safety assessment software system RiskA. The system consists of three main functions: device reliability optimization management, probabilistic safety assessment and instantaneous risk monitoring, and the comprehensive public risk assessment in digital society. RiskA establishes an integrated risk evaluation system for the device reliability, nuclear power plant (NPP) risk monitoring and public risk assessment. Currently, RiskA has successfully been applied in more than 600 organizations and institutes from a variety of fields in 39 countries, involving nuclear, aerospace, defense and so on. For example, RiskA has been used in the safety analysis of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), FDS series fusion reactor, and the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences 'the Future Advanced Nuclear Fission Energy - Accelerator Driven Sub-critical (ADS) transmutation system'. Also, RiskA has been used in public risk communication and risk assessment. Among them, Third Qinshan nuclear power plant Risk Monitor (TQRM), which is the China's first domestic nuclear safety analysis software used in the actual online operation, has been highly apprised by renowned experts in the field. Meanwhile, it has been identified as the first domestic nuclear power plant risk monitoring system with completely independent intellectual property rights, and has reached the international advanced level. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Providing Experimental Infrastructure for Accelerating Advanced Reactor Demonstrations through the National Reactor Innovation Center

A suite of experimental infrastructure projects has been developed by the National Reactor Innovation Center to accelerate advanced reactor demonstrations and facilitate their development, addressing crucial gaps in data, materials characterization, and modeling. First, the Molten Salt Thermophysical Examination Capability (MSTEC) provides a specialized platform for post-irradiation characterization of molten salt reactor fuel, coolant salts, and structural materials, essential for supporting the design and operation of advanced reactors and future commercial molten salt reactor development and licensing. The Virtual Test Bed (VTB) complements these efforts by leveraging advanced modeling and simulation tools to evaluate reactor performance and safety. Serving as a library of reference models, the VTB offers a database of multiphysics reactor models, facilitating rapid safety evaluations and includes continuous software quality assurance, crucial for accelerating deployment while maintaining reliability. Additionally, the Helium Component Test Facility (HeCTF) addresses the need for high-temperature helium-cooled reactor component testing. As the first-of-its-kind facility in the United States, HeCTF emulates high-temperature gas reactor conditions, reducing time and cost associated with component validation, thereby accelerating reactor development. Finally, In-cell Thermal Creep Frames provide a unique solution for obtaining thermal creep data from irradiated materials, critical for materials qualification and licensing. Developed by the National Reactor Innovation Center, these compact frames enable the examination of previously irradiated materials, overcoming traditional limitations and enhancing the understanding of mechanical properties crucial for reactor development. Collectively, these experimental infrastructure projects form a comprehensive framework aimed at expediting advanced reactor demonstrations, fostering innovation, and ensuring the viability of next-generation nuclear energy solutions.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Analysis of hydrogen infrastructure for the feasibility, economics, and sustainability of a fuel cell powered data center

Data centers used for internet data services, cloud computing, and/or data storage consume vast amounts of electricity and are increasing rapidly in capacity. Consequently, their power consumption has raised concerns about energy sustainability and environmental impacts. Large-scale, on-site renewable energy could help reduce data centers’ carbon footprint; however, wind and solar power alone cannot provide an uninterrupted power supply to computer servers due to their natural variability. Instead, reliable power integration can be achieved by using fuel cells powered by hydrogen from sustainable resources (e.g., wind and solar energy). Establishing a hydrogen infrastructure will be critical for realizing these benefits and establishing fuel cells as a viable power source for data centers. Here, to facilitate the development of novel carbon-free fuel cell data enters, this paper presents renewable power integrated with hydrogen infrastructures in four scenarios to provide reliable hydrogen supply from production to storage. Various paths were analyzed toward a hydrogen supply infrastructure by determining the proper component sizes and calculating the cost of meeting the server load. We used a microgrid modeling software, Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Energy Resources (HOMER), and studied the feasibility of fuel cell powered data centers employing renewable hydrogen. The modeling results show various renewable integration configurations to meet reliable and sustainable power requirement under four scenarios for a carbon-free data center.

08 HYDROGEN↗

UQpy: A general purpose Python package and development environment for uncertainty quantification

In this paper, we present the UQpy software toolbox, an open-source Python package for general uncertainty quantification (UQ) in mathematical and physical systems. The software serves as both a user-ready toolbox that includes many of the latest methods for UQ in computational modeling and a convenient development environment for Python programmers advancing the field of UQ. The paper presents an introduction to the software's architecture and existing capabilities, divided in the code in a set of modules centered around different UQ tasks such as sampling methods, generation of random processes and random fields, probabilistic inverse modeling, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling, and active learning. The paper also highlights the importance of the RunModel module, which is used to drive simulations in the uncertainty analyses performed in UQpy. This module conveniently allows the user to define computational models directly in Python, or to run simulations from a third-party software in serial or in parallel. To illustrate the various capabilities, two examples are tracked throughout the paper and analyzed repeatedly for various UQ tasks. The first is a Python model solving a nonlinear structural dynamics problem, used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in sampling and forward propagation of high dimensional random vectors (stochastic processes), and probabilistic inference. The second model is a third-party Abaqus finite element model solving the thermomechanical response of a beam structure. This example is used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in variance reduction sampling techniques, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling and active learning techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Microgrid Design Analysis Using Technology Management Optimization and the Performance Reliability Model

Microgrids are a focus of localized energy production that support resiliency, security, local con- trol, and increased access to renewable resources (among other potential benefits). The Smart Power Infrastructure Demonstration for Energy Reliability and Security (SPIDERS) Joint Capa- bility Technology Demonstration (JCTD) program between the Department of Defense (DOD), Department of Energy (DOE), and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) resulted in the pre- liminary design and deployment of three microgrids at military installations. This paper is focused on the analysis process and supporting software used to determine optimal designs for energy surety microgrids (ESMs) in the SPIDERS project. There are two key pieces of software, an ex- isting software application developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) called Technology Management Optimization (TMO) and a new simulation developed for SPIDERS called the per- formance reliability model (PRM). TMO is a decision support tool that performs multi-objective optimization over a mixed discrete/continuous search space for which the performance measures are unrestricted in form. The PRM is able to statistically quantify the performance and reliability of a microgrid operating in islanded mode (disconnected from any utility power source). Together, these two software applications were used as part of the ESM process to generate the preliminary designs presented by SNL-led DOE team to the DOD. Acknowledgements Sandia National Laboratories and the SPIDERS technical team would like to acknowledge the following for help in the project: * Mike Hightower, who has been the key driving force for Energy Surety Microgrids * Juan Torres and Abbas Akhil, who developed the concept of microgrids for military instal- lations * Merrill Smith, U.S. Department of Energy SPIDERS Program Manager * Ross Roley and Rich Trundy from U.S. Pacific Command * Bill Waugaman and Bill Beary from U.S. Northern Command * Tarek Abdallah, Melanie Johnson, and Harold Sanborn of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratory * Colleagues from Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for their reviews, suggestions, and participation in the work.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Development Support for NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM): Cooperative Research and Development, CRADA Number CRD-20-16998 (Final Report)

The variable nature of renewable generation, which depends on the sun shining and wind blowing for example, presents challenges for adequate and least-cost resource planning. The deployment of renewable generation assets is anticipated to increase due to various drivers, such as declining costs, favorable government policies, and increasing procurement by corporations and consumers. High levels of renewable penetration are anticipated to pose flexibility, reliability, and cost challenges to the electrical system. The development and implementation of new features into performance modeling software, such as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) System Advisor Model (SAM), is one way to help think through these challenges and develop appropriate strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗