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Investigation of the Use of Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodologies for Identifying Digital I&C System Common Cause Failures

Digital Instrumentation and Control (I&C) systems have a key role in nuclear power plants in the upgrade of aging analog systems. Digital systems improve plant safety and reliability through features such as increased hardware reliability and stability and improved failure detection capability. There is no consensus on which of the current probabilistic risk assessment methods are most suitable for use in the reliability analysis of digital I&C systems. While the traditional event-tree/fault-tree (ET/FT) approach is still used for their reliability modeling, there are concerns regarding this approach in properly accounting for dynamic interactions among system components since potentially significant dependencies among failure events may not be identified and/or their likelihood may not be properly quantified. Dynamic methodologies are expected to provide a much more accurate representation of probabilistic evolution of the I&C systems in time due to their capability to more properly account for complex interactions than the static approach. The applicability of dynamic PRA methodologies for digital I&C system is investigated using the criteria presented in the NUREG/CR-6901, and the comparisons made in NUREG/CR-6901 are updated in light of the latest studies. The Dynamic Event Tree (DET) approach has been identified as one of the top dynamic methods when evaluated against the requirements for the reliability modeling of digital I&C systems. The DET method is a strong candidate for integration into existing PRA studies, as it bears many similarities to the traditional ET approach. In this study, the DET approach has been applied to the Plant Protection System of the APR1400 design, and the results are compared to results from its available traditional ET/FT analysis. Possible approaches to evaluate and quantify the effects of common cause failures on system safety using dynamic methods are also examined.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Towards understanding the formation of internal fragments generated by collisionally activated dissociation for top-down mass spectrometry

Top-down mass spectrometry (TD-MS) generates fragment ions that returns information on the polypeptide amino acid sequence. In addition to terminal fragments, internal fragments that result from multiple cleavage events can also be formed. Traditionally, internal fragments are largely ignored due to a lack of available software to reliably assign them, mainly caused by a poor understanding of their formation mechanism. To accurately assign internal fragments, their formation process needs to be better understood. Here we applied a statistical method to compare fragmentation patterns of internal and terminal fragments of peptides and proteins generated by collisionally activated dissociation (CAD). Internal fragments share similar fragmentation propensities with terminal fragments (e.g., enhanced cleavages N-terminal to proline and C-terminal to acidic residues), suggesting that their formation follows conventional CAD pathways. Internal fragments should be generated by subsequent cleavages of terminal fragments and their formation can be explained by the well-known mobile proton model. Additionally, internal fragments can be coupled with terminal fragments to form complementary product ions that span the entire protein sequence. These enhance our understanding of internal fragment formation and can help improve sequencing algorithms to accurately assign internal fragments, which will ultimately lead to more efficient and comprehensive TD-MS analysis of proteins and proteoforms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

In Their Shoes: Persona-Based Approaches to Software Quality Practice Incentivization

Many teams struggle to adapt and right-size software engineering best practices for quality assurance to fit their context. Introducing software quality is not usually framed in a way that motivates teams to take action, thus resulting in it becoming a “check the box for compliance” activity instead of a cultural practice that values software quality and the effort to achieve it. When and how can we provide effective incentives for software teams to adopt and integrate meaningful and enduring software quality practices? Here, we explored this question through a persona-based ideation exercise at the 2021 Collegeville Workshop on Scientific Software in which we created three unique personas that represent different scientific software developer perspectives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine learning based job status prediction in scientific clusters

Large high-performance computing systems are built with increasing number of components with more CPU cores, more memory, and more storage space. At the same time, scientific applications have been growing in complexity. Together, they are leading to more frequent unsuccessful job statuses on HPC systems. From measured job statuses, 23.4% of CPU time was spent to the unsuccessful jobs. Here, we set out to study whether these unsuccessful job statuses could be anticipated from known job characteristics. To explore this possibility, we have developed a job status prediction method for the execution of jobs on scientific clusters. The Random Forests algorithm was applied to extract and characterize the patterns of unsuccessful job statuses. Experimental results show that our method can predict the unsuccessful job statuses from the monitored ongoing job executions in 99.8% the cases with 83.6% recall and 94.8% precision. Lastly, this prediction accuracy can be sufficiently high that it can be used to mitigation procedures of predicted failures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

3D DVH-based metric analysis versus per-beam planar analysis in IMRT pretreatment verification

Purpose: To evaluate methods of pretreatment IMRT analysis, using real measurements performed with a commercial 2D detector array, for clinical relevance and accuracy by comparing clinical DVH parameters. Methods: We divided the work into two parts. The first part consisted of six in-phantom tests aimed to study the sensitivity of the different analysis methods. Beam fluences, 3D dose distribution, and DVH of an unaltered original plan were compared to those of the delivered plan, in which an error had been intentionally introduced. The second part consisted of comparing gamma analysis with DVH metrics for 17 patient plans from various sites. Beam fluences were measured with the MapCHECK 2 detector, per-beam planar analysis was performed with the MapCHECK software, and 3D gamma analysis and the DVH evaluation were performed using 3DVH software. Results: In a per-beam gamma analysis some of the tests yielded false positives or false negatives. However, the 3DVH software correctly described the DVH of the plan which included the error. The measured DVH from the plan with controlled error agreed with the planned DVH within 2% dose or 2% volume. We also found that a gamma criterion of 3%/3 mm was too lax to detect some of the forced errors. Global analysis masked some problems, while local analysis magnified irrelevant errors at low doses. Small hotspots were missed for all metrics due to the spatial resolution of the detector panel. DVH analysis for patient plans revealed small differences between treatment plan calculations and 3DVH results, with the exception of very small volume structures such as the eyes and the lenses. Target coverage (D{sub 98} and D{sub 95}) of the measured plan was systematically lower than that predicted by the treatment planning system, while other DVH characteristics varied depending on the parameter and organ. Conclusions: We found no correlation between the gamma index and the clinical impact of a discrepancy for any of the gamma index evaluation possibilities (global, local, 2D, or 3D). Some of the tests yielded false positives or false negatives in a per-beam gamma analysis. However, they were correctly accounted for in a DVH analysis. We also showed that 3DVH software is reliable for our tests, and is a viable method for correlating planar discrepancies with clinical relevance by comparing the measured DVH of target and OAR's with clinical tolerance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Advanced High-Performance Computational Modeling of the Seismic Response of High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSS

New methods for predicting the amplitude and variability of ground shaking from earthquakes (and explosions) are needed for seismic hazard analysis for buildings, nuclear power plants, and critical infrastructure at the NNSS. We are comparing existing 1-D and new 3-D geophysical methods for estimating the shear-wave velocity structure in the upper 30 meters of the ground surface (Vs30), which plays a major role in ground motion amplification and seismic response of buildings. We evaluate the performance of these methodologies at the U1a Complex at the NNSS and develop simple 1-D and high-resolution 3-D Vs30 models. We then emplace these high-resolution models into a background seismic velocity model. We will collaborate with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to conduct numerical modeling of the ground shaking at the NNSS using their high-performance computing technology and state-of-the-art ground motion simulation methodology. The primary work that was completed in FY 2019 was to acquire the seismic systems and familiarize staff at the NNSS with their use. We also worked on developing a collection plan with the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the NNSS, but due to time constraints and other ongoing projects at the DAF, we had to use U1a as a backup. We were able to coordinate the seismic survey, and we will complete the collection of seismic data in FY 2020. Additionally, during FY 2019, we completed the geologic framework model (GFM) for the U1a Complex and modeled the Yucca fault. LLNL worked with us through FY 2019 to prepare the data files for their modeling software and tested the software for reliability. In FY 2020 we will develop the end-to-end capability so that any facility could easily be modeled and the expected shaking from a local earthquake understood. The work in FY 2020 will include building fault models from the GFM and finalizing the velocity model analysis. The final simulations will be run for multiple rupture models, and final assessments will demonstrate the seismic hazard at the U1a Complex.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

ComPort: Rigorous Testing Methods to Safeguard Software Porting (Final Technical Report)

This is a technical report from the lead institution – University of Utah, Kahlert School of Computing – funded under the Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research under award number DE-SC0022252. We summarize our work done over the three years of funding received. The relevant papers and software have already been uploaded at the DOE site.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Westinghouse Waste Simulation and Optimization Software Tool - 13493

Radioactive waste is produced during NPP operation and NPP D and D. Different kinds of waste with different volumes and properties have to be treated. Finding a technically and commercially optimized waste treatment concept is a difficult and time consuming process. The Westinghouse waste simulation and optimization software tool is an approach to study the total life cycle cost of any waste management facility. The tool enables the user of the simulation and optimization software to plan processes and storage buildings and to identify bottlenecks in the overall waste management design before starting detailed planning activities. Furthermore, application of the software enables the user to optimize the number of treatment systems, to determine the minimum design capacity for onsite storage facilities, to identify bottlenecks in the overall design and to identify the most cost-effective treatment paths by maintaining optimal waste treatment technologies. In combination with proven waste treatment equipment and integrated waste management solutions, the waste simulation and optimization software provides reliable qualitative results that lead to an effective planning and minimization of the total project planning risk of any waste management activity. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Use of Time Distributions to Predict Operator Procedure Performance in Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework affords software capable of conducting human reliability analysis (HRA) using a dynamic approach built around operating procedures (OPs) from nuclear power plants (NPPs). Previous HUNTER reports document the development of this software tool, the coupling of HUNTER to the simulator code, the collection of operator performance data by using simulators to calibrate HUNTER models, and linking HUNTER to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) software. The present report largely addresses two topics. The first is a new function in HUNTER called the HUNTER Procedure Performance Predictor (P3). HUNTER P3 uses HUNTER’s built in Monte Carlo tools featuring human performance variability to identify potential error traps in procedures. The second topic is time distribution analysis to generate time inputs for dynamic HRA. The current analysis was performed to investigate time distributions for task primitives, which are the minimum task unit of analysis used in dynamic HRA modeling. Using the time distribution data, the elapsed time for human actions in an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario is then investigated. Time data and prediction are essential for modeling procedure performance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Test based reliability assessment method for a safety critical software in reactor protection system - 284

Digitalization of the instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plant entails some new features which do not exist in analog systems. When the new features are applied in safety critical systems, the risk stemming from them should be quantified properly to assure the reliability of the entire power plant. Among the new features, software is considered as the most important factor because it can cause common cause failure to many redundant systems. Therefore, in this work, a test based reliability assessment method for a safety-critical software is developed. An output of a software is determined by not only inputs but also the internal state of the software at the time. In the case of safety critical software developed for usage in nuclear power plant, it is possible to directly investigate probable internal states thanks to detailed design specification and programing features, and the probable inputs also can be identified based on the physical linearity of each process parameter and hardware characteristics related to data acquisition. In this work, a development method for practical exhaustive test case consisting of investigation of internal state and probable input sets to a specific internal state are suggested. In addition to this, software logic simulator for execution of software logic test and the reliability quantification method based on the test result are developed. The feasibility of the suggested method is demonstrated via a case study. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Report on Simulation-Driven Reliability and Failure Analysis of Large-Scale Storage Systems

High-performance computing (HPC) storage systems provide data availability and reliability using various hardware and software fault tolerance techniques. Usually, reliability and availability are calculated at the subsystem or component level using limited metrics such as, mean time to failure (MTTF) or mean time to data loss (MTTDL). This often means settling on simple and disconnected failure models (such as exponential failure rate) to achieve tractable and close-formed solutions. However, such models have been shown to be insufficient in assessing end-to-end storage system reliability and availability. We propose a generic simulation framework aimed at analyzing the reliability and availability of storage systems at scale, and investigating what-if scenarios. The framework is designed for an end-to-end storage system, accommodating the various components and subsystems, their interconnections, failure patterns and propagation, and performs dependency analysis to capture a wide-range of failure cases. We evaluate the framework against a large-scale storage system that is in production and analyze its failure projections toward and beyond the end of lifecycle. We also examine the potential operational impact by studying how different types of components affect the overall system reliability and availability, and present the preliminary results

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Software Validation Work With The ZPPR-15 Data

The analysis activities for fast reactors involve using many different pieces of software that are relied upon for their predictive capabilities. For this software to be considered reliable, documented proof that the predictions of the software are accurate is required. In this manuscript, the validation work that covers some of the Argonne software used in fast reactor design activities is discussed and displayed. This validation work includes neutron and gamma flux distributions, reaction rate distributions, and reactivity worth. In an ideal world, a reactor development program would have access to a comprehensive set of experimental facilities to help inform the design aspects of the reactor itself. While thermal-hydraulics experiments, and to a limited degree mechanical experiments, can be carried out today for validation needs, neutronics related experimental facilities are rather impractical because of the lack of experimental facilities. Given the desired time table for construction of new reactors, the reconstitution or creation of new neutronic experimental facilities is untenable and thus those reactor development programs must rely upon any available experimental measurements that are qualitatively similar to the design. While a methodology has been proposed to assess the similarity between the past experimental measurements and the reactor itself, that aspect is beyond the scope of this manuscript. In this manuscript, the focus is entirely placed on the analysis results for a series of experiments carried out at the ZPPR facility in Idaho in the mid-1980s. In this regard, this manuscript only shows the validation of the stated neutronics software for specific loadings of the ZPPR reactor. Because of the fuel form, its proposed enrichment, and the material content of the reactor core, the ZPPR-15 experiments were identified as potential validation data for the reactor. The ZPPR-15 experiments were intended as mockups of a 330 MWe Integral Fast Reactor program which was a follow on program to the Clinch River Breeder Reactor. In the ZPPR-15 series of experiments, measurements of the neutron spectrum, control rod worth, sodium void worth, foil reaction rate distributions, Doppler worth of heated samples, gamma dose, and axial expansion worth were all carried out and published. In many cases, these reactivity coefficients are good candidates to validate the reactivity coefficient calculation scheme used by the analysis software and included in the safety analysis activities of fast reactor development projects today. This manuscript discusses the modeling methodology and accuracy of the calculated experimental results using the LANL software MCNP and the ANL software package ARC (Argonne Reactor Codes). As will be shown, for many of the experimental measurements, the two software packages are found to be good predictive analysis tools for those experiments. In other cases, problems with the analysis methodology or underlying cross section data are exposed which indicates where predictive analysis is not as reliable. Finally, in some of the measurements the conclusion is reached that the experimental measurement cannot be reproduced with the analysis software as it is simply too difficult.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Software Validation Work With The ZPPR-15 Data

The analysis activities for fast reactors involve using many different pieces of software that are relied upon for their predictive capabilities. For this software to be considered reliable, documented proof that the predictions of the software are accurate is required. In this manuscript, the validation work that covers some of the Argonne software used in fast reactor design activities is discussed and displayed. This validation work includes neutron and gamma flux distributions, reaction rate distributions, and reactivity worth. In an ideal world, a reactor development program would have access to a comprehensive set of experimental facilities to help inform the design aspects of the reactor itself. While thermal-hydraulics experiments, and to a limited degree mechanical experiments, can be carried out today for validation needs, neutronics related experimental facilities are rather impractical because of the lack of experimental facilities. Given the desired time table for construction of new reactors, the reconstitution or creation of new neutronic experimental facilities is untenable and thus those reactor development programs must rely upon any available experimental measurements that are qualitatively similar to the design. While a methodology has been proposed to assess the similarity between the past experimental measurements and the reactor itself, that aspect is beyond the scope of this manuscript. In this manuscript, the focus is entirely placed on the analysis results for a series of experiments carried out at the ZPPR facility in Idaho in the mid-1980s. In this regard, this manuscript only shows the validation of the stated neutronics software for specific loadings of the ZPPR reactor. Because of the fuel form, its proposed enrichment, and the material content of the reactor core, the ZPPR-15 experiments were identified as potential validation data for the reactor. The ZPPR-15 experiments were intended as mockups of a 330 MWe Integral Fast Reactor program which was a follow on program to the Clinch River Breeder Reactor. In the ZPPR-15 series of experiments, measurements of the neutron spectrum, control rod worth, sodium void worth, foil reaction rate distributions, Doppler worth of heated samples, gamma dose, and axial expansion worth were all carried out and published. In many cases, these reactivity coefficients are good candidates to validate the reactivity coefficient calculation scheme used by the analysis software and included in the safety analysis activities of fast reactor development projects today. This manuscript discusses the modeling methodology and accuracy of the calculated experimental results using the LANL software MCNP and the ANL software package ARC (Argonne Reactor Codes). As will be shown, for many of the experimental measurements, the two software packages are found to be good predictive analysis tools for those experiments. In other cases, problems with the analysis methodology or underlying cross section data are exposed which indicates where predictive analysis is not as reliable. Finally, in some of the measurements the conclusion is reached that the experimental measurement cannot be reproduced with the analysis software as it is simply too difficult.

Aliberti, Gerardo↗

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Development and Validation of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for a Generic Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor

This study looks to develop and validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model for the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR) using INL’s Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) software. Validation against a General Atomics design involves matching event and fault trees to historical frequencies, with a goal of under 15% difference. The research aims to deliver a reliable PRA model to assess the safety of MHTGRs for use within high-temperature industrial applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗