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A Data Processing Pipeline To Extract A Knowledge Graph From Heterogeneous Data For Socio-technical Analysis Of Critical Infrastructure Influence

The code is written in Python and consists of the following pipeline that is implemented in Apache Airflow. This pipeline intends to understand the companies that are directly or indirectly involved with a type of critical infrastructure system at some point in that system's lifecycle. The pipeline takes a configuration file that specifies a list of initial companies to consider, a geographic region of interest, and a set of SEC form types as well as other data sources (e.g. CrunchBase) from which to extract entities and relations. There are four main components to this pipeline as currently implemented: Entity Extraction, Network Construction, Analysis, and Visualization. First, Entity Extraction, is implemented as the `topear-extract_organizations` Apache Airflow workflow. Given an initial query that specifies a geographic region of interest and a time interval, the software will extract CI facilities of interest and organizations that have a direct influence relationship to those facilities (e.g. ownership). During the course of the LDRD, we focused on Electric Vehicle charging stations and this information is available via the Department of Energy (DOE) database on fueling stations maintained by NREL. Within the context of the DOE CESER project, we have focused on Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). Second, the Network Extraction component will iteratively construct a social network graph given the set of organizations and people extracted in the previous step. Organizations (and eventually People if desired) are then fed as a query to the `topgear-construct_social_network` Apache Airflow workflow which given a set of initial companies and data sets (e.g. SEC EDGAR form types, OpenCorporates, Crunchbase). This Airflow workflow will iteratively query such data sources to discover relationships with new organizations and people. For example, this module can iteratively query SEC EDGAR for metadata that documents the number of each type of form for the given set of companies and their location. This forms metadata represents a catalog of data sources from SEC EDGAR for the extracted social network knowledge graph. The pipeline then downloads these forms from the website and saves them in a build directory for further processing. These documents are then parsed for entities and relations. Again, we note that in additional to SEC data sources, this step can also pull in information on organizations via API services such as CrunchBase and OpenCorporates or bulk data sources. At the end of this step, the resultant social network, the Critical Infrastructure network, and the edges that encode relationships between organizations and CI facilities, form the Adversarial Socio-Technical Network (ASTN) that informs the analysis. Third, the Analysis component processes these generated ASTN. Previously, that has included the ability to compare prevalence of different vendors for a given infrastructure component type across different regions as well as identify common public and private investors across those vendors. This was demonstrated for EV Charging Stations across several different metropolitan areas within an IEEE PES GridEdge publication. More recently, we have looked at ways to identify infrastructure owners and operators of BESS with the most nameplate capacity across different states as well as other indictors of risk resulting from changes in ownership over time. Finally, the Visualization component consists of an HTML/CSS/JS framework by which users can interact geospatial, operational, and organizational relationships across a given portfolio of Critical Infrastructure facilities. The objective is to provide a library of UI/UX modules that can be repurposed for stakeholder-specific dashboards. All of the modules are related via a common event model that enables UI actions in one view to percolate across the other views.

Weaver, Gabriel [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), ↗

Produced Water-Economic, Socio, Environmental Simulation Model (PW-ESEim) Model: Proof-of-Concept for Southeastern New Mexico

A proof-of-concept tool, the Produced Water-Economic, Socio, Environmental Simulation model (PW-ESESim), was developed to support ease of analysis. The tool was designed to facilitate head-to-head comparison of alternative produced water source, treatment, and reuse water management strategies. A graphical user interface (GUI) guides the user through the selection and design of alternative produced water treatment and reuse strategies and the associated health and safety risk and economic benefits. At the highest conceptual level, alternative water strategies include the selection of a source water (locally or regionally available produced water), treatment strategy (pre-treatment, physical, chemical, biological, desalination, and post-treatment processes) and product water purpose (e.g., irrigation, industrial processing, environmental). After selection of these details, the PW-ESESim output a number of key economic, societal, environmental, public/ecological health and safety metrics to support user decision-making; specific examples include, cost of treatment, improvements in freshwater availability, human and ecologic health impacts and growth in local jobs and the economy. Through the simulation of different produced water treatment and management strategies, tradeoffs are identified and used to inform fit-for-purpose produced water treatment and reuse management decisions. While the tool was initially designed using Southeastern New Mexico (Permian Basin) as a case study, the general design of the PW-ESESim model can be extended to support other oil and gas regions of the U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Allometric Trophic Networks From Individuals to Socio-Ecosystems: Consumer–Resource Theory of the Ecological Elephant in the Room

A well-known parable is that of the blind men studying an elephant each of which assert the elephant is the part they first hold in their hands, e.g., “rope!” says the tail holder while the leg holder asserts “tree!” The various subdisciplines of ecology appear similar in that we each engage in our enthusiastic but at least somewhat myopic study with remarkably limited agreement or even discussion about the overall system which we all study. Allometric trophic network (ATN) theory offers a path out of this dilemma by integrating across scales, taxa, habitats and organizational levels from physiology to ecosystems based on consumer-resource interactions among co-existing organisms. The network architecture and the metabolic and behavioral processes that determine the structure and dynamics of these interactions form the first principles of ATN theory, which in turn provides a synthetic overview and powerfully predictive framework for ecology from organisms to ecosystems. Beyond ecology, ATN theory also synthesizes eco-evolutionary and socio-ecological research still largely based on consumer-resource mechanisms but respectively integrated with different processes including natural selection and market mechanisms. This paper briefly describes foundations, advances, and future directions of ATN theory including predicting an ecosystem’s phenotype from its community’s genotype in order to accelerate more predictive and unified understanding of the complex systems studied by ecologists and other environmental scientists.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Communications, Socio-Psychological, and Personality Factors in the Maintenance of Crew Coordination

There is increasing evidence that many air transport incidents and accidents are the result of the improper or inadequate utilization of the resources accessible to flight dock crew members. These resources obviously include the hardware and technical information necessary for the safe and efficient conduct of the flight, but they also Include the human resources which must be coordinated effectively. The focus of this paper is upon the human resources, and how communication styles, socio-psychological factors, and personality characteristics can affect crew coordination.

Foushee, H. Clayton↗

A Human View Model for Socio-Technical Interactions

The Human View was developed as an additional architectural viewpoint to focus on the human part of a system. The Human View can be used to collect and organize data in order to understand how human operators interact and impact the other elements of a system. This framework can also be used to develop a model to describe how humans interact with each other in network enabled systems. These socio-technical interactions form the foundation of the emerging area of Human Interoperability. Human Interoperability strives to understand the relationships required between human operators that impact collaboration across networked environments, including the effect of belonging to different organizations. By applying organizational relationship concepts from network theory to the Human View elements, and aligning these relationships with a model developed to identify layers of coalition interoperability, the conditions for different levels for Human Interoperability for network enabled systems can be identified. These requirements can then be captured in the Human View products to improve the overall network enabled system.

Handley, Holly A.↗

Socio-Technical Perspective on Interdisciplinary Interactions During the Development of Complex Engineered Systems

This study investigates interdisciplinary interactions that take place during the research, development, and early conceptual design phases in the design of large-scale complex engineered systems (LaCES) such as aerospace vehicles. These interactions, that take place throughout a large engineering development organization, become the initial conditions of the systems engineering process that ultimately leads to the development of a viable system. This paper summarizes some of the challenges and opportunities regarding social and organizational issues that emerged from a qualitative study using ethnographic and survey data. The analysis reveals several socio-technical couplings between the engineered system and the organization that creates it. Survey respondents noted the importance of interdisciplinary interactions and their benefits to the engineered system as well as substantial challenges in interdisciplinary interactions. Noted benefits included enhanced knowledge and problem mitigation and noted obstacles centered on organizational and human dynamics. Findings suggest that addressing the social challenges may be a critical need in enabling interdisciplinary interactions

McGowan, Anna-Maria R.↗

Socio-Techno-Economic Feasibility of Deep Geothermal with EGS for Residential District Heating in the Northeastern United States

In this paper, we present socio-techno-economic simulation results for enhanced geothermal system (EGS) district heating systems in the northeastern United States. We applied the geospatial Distributed Geothermal Market Demand (dGeo) tool coupled with GEOPHIRES to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal deep direct-use, utilizing EGS reservoirs for providing residential heating with district heating systems. The results were combined with JEDI results to assess social impacts. Simulation results assuming doublet EGS reservoirs with target production temperature of 80 degrees C and newly constructed district heating systems indicate a wide range in system levelized cost of heat (LCOH) values ranging from ~$15/MMBtu to over $1,000/MMBtu, with most the attractive regions urban areas with high total thermal demand and high thermal demand density. We estimate about 60 GWth in potential installed capacity with LCOH values under $50/MMBtu and 100 GWth in potential capacity with LCOH values under $100/MMBtu, respectively.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives

Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO 2 -emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Exploring PV Circularity by Modeling Socio-Technical Dynamics of Modules’ End-of-Life Management

The circular economy (CE) tackles environmental and resource scarcity issues by maximizing value retention in the economy. The concept implies design strategies such as reducing the use of materials or improving products’ durability and end-of-life (EOL) strategies, for example, reusing products and components and recycling materials. With an estimated 80 million tons of global cumulative EOL photovoltaic (PV) modules, applying CE principles to the PV industry could alleviate resource scarcity issues while also providing economic benefits. However, transitioning to a CE may imply changes in organizations and consumer behaviors. In this context, assessment of CE strategies may require accounting for behavioral change, a requirement that methods from complex system science such as agent-based modeling meet. Thus, this paper uses an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to study circularity in the photovoltaics supply chain. Four types of agents are represented in the ABM: PV owners, installers, recyclers, and manufacturers. Moreover, five possible EOL options – including three CE strategies – are modeled. Departing from traditional techno-economic analysis, the model includes techno-economic factors as well as social factors to model EOL management decisions. Results show that each dollar decrease in the recycling fees improves the recycling rate by roughly 1.1%. However, excluding social factors underestimates the effect that lower recycling prices have on material circularity.

agent-based modeling↗

A Data Processing Pipeline for Socio-Technical Network Analysis [Slides]

With the rapid adoption of emerging technologies, there is a need to catalog and model sociotechnical interdependencies that have been historically used to influence the operation of Critical Infrastructure networks including the impacts of mergers and acquisitions, hostile takeovers, and foreign investment. Our research intends to address this need with two primary contributions. First, we have developed a data curation and processing pipeline to generate sociotechnical networks extracted from a variety of data sources including SEC filings and infrastructure asset databases. The pipeline, implemented in Apache Airflow, extracts and normalizes the representation of entities and relations, specified within ontologies. Second, networks produced by our pipeline enable the development of graph-theoretic metrics that consider the properties of network components in addition to its topology. Measures of network complexity, such as degree distribution, reachability analyses, temporal analysis, and community detection may be adapted to indicate adversarial organizational influence. Our intent is to provide an extensible, machine-actionable approach to quickly communicate such models, reproduce previous results, and adapt them to new, unanticipated situations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Exploring PV Circularity by Modeling Socio-Technical Dynamics of Modules' End-of-Life Management: Preprint

The circular economy (CE) tackles environmental and resource scarcity issues by maximizing value retention in the economy. The concept implies design strategies such as reducing the use of materials or improving products’ durability and end-of-life (EOL) strategies such as reusing products and components and recycling materials. With an estimated 80 million tons of global cumulative EOL photovoltaic (PV) modules, applying CE principles to the PV industry could alleviate resource scarcity issues while also providing economic benefits. However, transitioning to a CE may imply changes in organizations and consumer behaviors. In this context, assessment of CE strategies may require accounting for behavioral change, a requirement that methods from complex system science such as agent-based modeling meet. Thus, this paper uses an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to study circularity in the photovoltaics supply chain. Four types of agents are represented in the ABM: PV owners, installers, recyclers, and manufacturers. Moreover, five possible EOL options – including three CE strategies – are modeled. Departing from traditional techno-economic analysis, the model includes techno-economic factors as well as social factors to model EOL management decisions. Results show that each dollar decrease in the recycling fees improves the recycling rate by roughly 1.1%. However, excluding social factors underestimates the effect that lower recycling prices have on material circularity.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗

A Data Processing Pipeline for Adversarial Socio-Technical Network Analysis

With the rapid adoption of emerging technologies, there is a need to catalog and model sociotechnical interdependencies that have been historically used to influence the operation of Critical Infrastructure networks including the impacts of mergers and acquisitions, hostile takeovers, and foreign investment. Our research intends to address this need with two primary contributions. First, we have developed a data curation and processing pipeline to generate sociotechnical networks extracted from a variety of data sources including SEC filings and infrastructure asset databases. The pipeline, implemented in Apache Airflow, extracts and normalizes the representation of entities and relations, specified within ontologies. Our intent is to provide an extensible, machine-actionable approach to quickly communicate such models, reproduce previous results, and adapt them to new, unanticipated situations. Second, networks produced by our pipeline enable the development of graph-theoretic metrics that consider the properties of network components in addition to its topology. Metadata associated with network components---whether semantic, temporal, or geospatial---affects the alignment of generated networks with assumptions underlying complexity metrics. Validation of generated networks relative to component types defined by an ontology, may allow the research community to adapt metrics to the semantics of the domains being studied. Generated networks may be processed as knowledge, dynamic, or spatial graphs and enables a variety of analyses including automated reasoning and measures of network complexity. Automated reasoning views extracted entities and relations as a knowledge graph; this enables application of inference rules that represent historically-attested adversarial business methods and applies that behavior to a specific geographic context. Measures of network complexity, including degree distribution, reachability analyses, temporal analysis, and community detection can be adapted to indicate adversarial organizational influence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparison of Socio-Technical Threat Models

Given the adoption of emerging technologies and the increasing complexity of managing such systems with a lifecycle much shorter than that of critical infrastructure systems, there is a practical need to be able to analyze sociotechnical dependencies and their associated evolving risks. Threat models based on social influence techniques can be used to implement adversarial tactics analogous to the cyber kill chain and attested to within the MITRE ATT&CK for ICS framework including Initial Access, Persistence, Collection, and Impact. Furthermore, as with cyber disruptions, the impact of social influence threat models can have an asymmetric impact that is not spatially-localized. Finally, unlike cyber attacks with a reasonably short duration (ransomware takes days to months), social influence based attacks have the potential to persist for much longer as they are based on long-term strategic infrastructure investments within the private sector. Given the increased importance of electric vehicle charging stations as a long-term, strategic infrastructure investment within the Energy and Transportation Sectors, we provide initial results that compare the impact of a Loss of Availability (T0826) realized through cyber and social influence based threat models. The analysis employs techniques from automated reasoning and measures of network complexity to understand evolving dominance of EV payment and charging networks within geographic region of interest. Within this context, we compare the impact of a loss of availability due to ransomware versus that of loss of support due to a merger and acquisition. Results across several different metro areas will be provided.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The impact of socio-technical communication styles on the diversity and innovation potential of global science collaboratories

Emerging cyber-infrastructure tools are enabling scientists to transparently co-develop, share, and communicate about real-time diverse forms of knowledge artifacts. In these environments, communication preferences of scientists are posited as an important factor affecting innovation capacity and robustness of social and knowledge network structures. Scientific knowledge creation in such communities is called global participatory science (GPS). Recently, using agent-based modeling and collective action theory as a basis, a complex adaptive social communication network model (CollectiveInnoSim) is implemented. This work leverages CollectiveInnoSim implementing communication preferences of scientists. Social network metrics and knowledge production patterns are used as proxy metrics to infer innovation potential of emergent knowledge and collaboration networks. The objective is to present the underlying communication dynamics of GPS in a form of computational model and delineate the impacts of various communication preferences of scientists on innovation potential of the collaboration network. Ultimately, the insight gained can help policy-makers to design GPS environments and promote innovation.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Integrating solar energy with agriculture: Industry perspectives on the market, community, and socio-political dimensions of agrivoltaics

Large-scale development of solar-generated electricity is hindered in some regions of the U.S. by land use competition and localized social resistance. One approach to alleviate these coupled challenges is agrivoltaics: the strategic co-location of solar photovoltaics and agriculture. To explore the opportunities and barriers for agrivoltaics, in-depth interviews with solar industry professionals were conducted and findings suggest that the potential for an agrivoltaic project to retain agricultural interests and consequently increase local support for development is the most significant opportunity of dual use solar. Capable of increasing community acceptance, participants expect agrivoltaics to play an important role in future solar endeavors, especially in places where development may be perceived as a threat to agricultural interests. The results further reveal the interconnections among the various dimensions of social acceptance and suggest that the growth of agrivoltaics is contingent on market adoption of the technology through community acceptance and supportive local regulatory environments. As solar photovoltaic systems transcend niche applications to become larger and more prevalent, the dimensions of social acceptance, including the opportunities and barriers associated with each dimension, can help inform decision making to enhance the growth of agrivoltaics and thus photovoltaic development. Here, the findings can help land use planners, solar developers, and municipal governments make informed decisions that strategically and meaningfully integrate agriculture and solar, and in turn provide multiple benefits including the retention of agricultural land, local economic development, and broad adoption of solar energy technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗