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DOE OSTI2022

Transition from sub-Rayleigh anticrack to supershear crack propagation in snow avalanches

Snow slab avalanches, characterized by a distinct, broad fracture line, are released following anticrack propagation in highly porous weak snow layers buried below cohesive slabs. The anticrack mechanism is driven by the volumetric collapse of the weak layer, which leads to the closure of crack faces and to the onset of frictional contact. Here, on the basis of snow fracture experiments, full-scale avalanche measurements and numerical simulations, we report the existence of a transition from sub-Rayleigh anticrack to supershear crack propagation. This transition follows the Burridge–Andrews mechanism, in which a supershear daughter crack nucleates ahead of the main fracture front and eventually propagates faster than the shear wave speed. Furthermore, we show that the supershear propagation regime can exist even if the shear-to-normal stress ratio is lower than the static friction coefficient as a result of the loss of frictional resistance during collapse. This finding shows that snow slab avalanches have fundamental similarities with strike-slip earthquakes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2011

Chemistry and Mineralogy of Antarctica Dry Valley Soils: Implications for Mars

The Antarctic Dry Valleys (ADV) comprise the largest ice-free region of Antarctica. Precipitation almost always occurs as snow, relative humidity is frequently low, and mean annual temperatures are about -20 C. The ADV soils have previously been categorized into three soil moisture regimes: subxerous, xerous and ultraxerous, based on elevation and climate influences. The subxerous regime is predominately a coastal zone soil, and has the highest average temperature and precipitation, while the ultraxerous regime occurs at high elevation (>1000 m) and have very low temperature and precipitation. The amounts and types of salts present in the soils vary between regions. The nature, origin and significance of salts in the ADV have been previously investigated. Substantial work has focused on soil formation in the ADVs, however, little work has focused on the mineralogy of secondary alteration phases. The dominant weathering process in the ADV region is physical weathering, however, chemical weathering has been well documented. The objective of this study was to characterize the chemistry and mineralogy, including the alteration mineralogy, of soils from two sites, a subxerous soil in Taylor Valley, and an ultraxerous soil in University Valley. The style of aqueous alteration in the ADVs may have implications for pedogenic processes on Mars.

Quinn, J. E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi–year analysis of rain–snow levels at Marquette, Michigan

This study uses observations from a ground-based instrument suite to investigate the rain-snow level in stratiform rainfall from January 2014 to April 2020 in the Upper Great Lakes Region. The height above the surface where ice melts to rain, the rain-snow level (RSL), influences microphysical assumptions in remote sensing precipitation retrievals and the ability of space-based radar to discriminate surface precipitation phase because of ground clutter. The instrument suite is installed at the Marquette, MI (MQT) National Weather Service station adjacent to Lake Superior. Rain events and the RSL are studied through a ground-based vertically profiling radar (Micro Rain Radar), a custom NASA-developed video disdrometer (Precipitation Imaging Package), and reanalyses products from ECMWF ERA5 and NASA MERRA-2. Further, distinct macro and micro physical characteristics are observed in precipitation events with shallow RSL ( < 1.8 km above ground level [AGL]) and intermediate RSL ( > 1.8 km AGL). Intermediate RSL correspond to rain events with relatively higher rain rates and a higher concentration of small drops in the drop size distributions (DSDs). Shallow RSL DSDs contain relatively higher concentrations of large drops with lower fall speeds suggesting that partially melted snowflakes may be reaching the surface. Reflectivity-rain-rate relationships are also impacted by microphysical differences associated with RSL regimes. Radar-detected RSL agree with reanalysis-derived melt levels- especially at wet-bulb isotherms of 0.5°C and 1°C. Seasonal differences such as shallow rain-snow levels in winter, fall, and spring have subsequent implications for satellite detectability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Projected Regime Shift in Arctic Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks

The Arctic climate is changing faster than any other large-scale region on Earth. A variety of positive feedback mechanisms are responsible for the amplification, most of which are linked with changes in snow and ice cover, surface temperature (T(sub s)), atmospheric water vapor (WV), and cloud properties. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, air temperature and water vapor content also increase, leading to a warmer surface and ice loss, which further enhance evaporation and WV. Many details of these interrelated feedbacks are poorly understood, yet are essential for understanding the pace and regional variations in future Arctic change. We use a global climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere-Ocean Model) to examine several components of these feedbacks, how they vary by season, and how they are projected to change through the 21st century. One positive feedback begins with an increase in T(sub s) that produces an increase in WV, which in turn increases the downward longwave flux (DLF) and T(sub s), leading to further evaporation. Another associates the expected increases in cloud cover and optical thickness with increasing DLF and T(sub s). We examine the sensitivities between DLF and other climate variables in these feedbacks and find that they are strongest in the non-summer seasons, leading to the largest amplification in Ts during these months. Later in the 21st century, however, DLF becomes less sensitive to changes in WV and cloud optical thickness, as they cause the atmosphere to emit longwave radiation more nearly as a black body. This regime shift in sensitivity implies that the amplified pace of Arctic change relative to the northern hemisphere could relax in the future.

Chen, Yonghua↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cloud-atmosphere impacts on the central Arctic surface energy budget (Final Report)

This project investigated how clouds and atmosphere-sea ice interactions shape the central Arctic surface energy budget using observations from the MOSAiC expedition and coordinated model experiments. Analyses focused on three themes. First, a new method applied to thermistor string data revealed that snow thermal conductivity is systematically higher than assumed in most models, strongly influencing conductive heat flux and sea ice growth, especially under clear skies. Second, a full annual cycle of surface energy budget observations, combined with detailed cloud microphysical retrievals, demonstrated how cloud regimes regulate radiative, turbulent, and conductive fluxes, driving seasonal contrasts in sea ice energy balance: in winter, radiative forcing elicits strong turbulent and conductive responses, while in summer excess energy is primarily partitioned into surface melt. Third, these observations were used to evaluate and improve regional and global forecast models. While some models captured key Arctic cloud-radiation states, most exhibited persistent deficiencies in representing liquid-containing clouds, snow-on-sea-ice processes, and flux responses to radiative forcing. Together, these results provide unprecedented benchmarks for understanding coupled Arctic processes, improve parameterizations of snow, sea ice, and cloud interactions, and highlight critical pathways by which atmospheric variability drives sea ice change in a rapidly evolving Arctic system. Lastly, the project was a resounding success, resulting in 38 peer-reviewed publications and dozens of presentations, while also supporting an early career scientist.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Algorithm for the Retrieval of 30-m Snow-Free Albedo from Landsat Surface Reflectance and MODIS BRDF

We present a new methodology to generate 30-m resolution land surface albedo using Landsat surface reflectance and anisotropy information from concurrent MODIS 500-m observations. Albedo information at fine spatial resolution is particularly useful for quantifying climate impacts associated with land use change and ecosystem disturbance. The derived white-sky and black-sky spectral albedos maybe used to estimate actual spectral albedos by taking into account the proportion of direct and diffuse solar radiation arriving at the ground. A further spectral-to-broadband conversion based on extensive radiative transfer simulations is applied to produce the broadband albedos at visible, near infrared, and shortwave regimes. The accuracy of this approach has been evaluated using 270 Landsat scenes covering six field stations supported by the SURFace RADiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM/SGP) network. Comparison with field measurements shows that Landsat 30-m snow-free shortwave albedos from all seasons generally achieve an absolute accuracy of +/-0.02 - 0.05 for these validation sites during available clear days in 2003-2005,with a root mean square error less than 0.03 and a bias less than 0.02. This level of accuracy has been regarded as sufficient for driving global and regional climate models. The Landsat-based retrievals have also been compared to the operational 16-day MODIS albedo produced every 8-days from MODIS on Terra and Aqua (MCD43A). The Landsat albedo provides more detailed landscape texture, and achieves better agreement (correlation and dynamic range) with in-situ data at the validation stations, particularly when the stations include a heterogeneous mix of surface covers.

Shuai, Yanmin↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Calibration Framework for the Northwest River Forecast Center

We present a comprehensive framework developed by the Northwest River Forecast Center for calibrating hydrologically diverse basins. The framework includes models for snow, soil moisture, routing, channel loss, and consumptive use. Data inputs include a wide range of open-access datasets for meteorology, land use, topography, and land cover. The framework uses conceptual hydrologic models to handle basins with various hydrologic regimes including rain-driven and snowmelt-dominated basins. We also develop a flexible automatic calibration system that can handle numerous unobservable model parameters in a computationally efficient manner. A single-basin automatic calibration run can typically be completed on a modern laptop in under 10 min. We found that model performance metrics for this new approach match the quality of the NWRFC's previous labor-intensive manual calibrations. The model performance also rivals that of a state-of-the-art deep learning model at a fraction of the computational cost. This framework presents a new standard for the quality of calibrations possible with lumped conceptual hydrologic models, combining careful data curation, an objective calibration framework, and expert local knowledge. In addition, we have made software packages available for the entire suite of National Weather Service River Forecast System models, including SAC-SMA, SNOW-17, and Lag-K. These modern interfaces are intended to increase accessibility and facilitate future research.

Forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gupta-et-al_2024_EarthsFuture

Results from Gupta et al. submitted to Earth's Future. All code to reproduce the experiment and make the figures can be found here: https://github.com/rg727/Gupta-etal_2024_EarthsFuture The data provided in this repository are (1) Weather Regime Data , (2) Hydroclimate Data, and (3) CALFEWS output. In (1), there are Markov chains of daily weather regimes generated over the 600-year paleo-period. In (2), there are three sets of data: Historical daily CDEC data for 12 input locations into CALFEWS, 600-year long daily paleo data (streamflow and snow) for each input location, and (3) 600-year long daily climate-change data (4 degree temperature increase + 7% precipitation scaling applied to (2)) which serves as the "climate change scenario" in the study. Please reference the GitHub repository on how to use these data to reproduce the results. The CALFEWS output for the Paleo and Climate Change scenarios is stored in (3). More information can be found in the Gupta-et-al_2024_EarthsFuture-README file.

Gupta, Rohini↗

NASA NTRS1984

Scattering models in the microwave regime

Results of first and second year research efforts are summarized in a series of complete articles and abstracts. The goal of the first year efforts was to calculate scattering from an inhomogeneous layer with irregular boundaries to model natural terrains. The model was applied to interpret measurements from vegetation, snow, and sea ice. The goal of the second year was to extend the scattering model to handle disc shaped scatterers which are comparable to incident wavelength and to use the model to investigate the relative merits between active versus passive sensing of soil moisture over vegetated terrain.

Fung, A. K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Vertical Structure and Ice Production Processes of Shallow Convective Postfrontal Clouds over the Southern Ocean in MARCUS. Part I: Observational Study

A study of the vertical structure of postfrontal shallow clouds in the marine boundary layer over the Southern Ocean is presented here. The central question of this two-part study regards cloud phase (liquid/ice) of precipitation, and the associated growth mechanisms. In this first part, data from the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) field campaign are analyzed, starting with a 75-h case with continuous sea surface-based thermal instability, modest surface heat fluxes, an open-cellular mesoscale organization, and very few ice nucleating particles (INPs). The clouds are mostly precipitating and shallow (tops mostly around 2 km above sea level), with weak up- and downdrafts, and with cloud-top temperatures generally around –18° to –10°C. Further, the case study is extended to three other periods of postfrontal shallow clouds in MARCUS. While abundant supercooled liquid water is commonly present, an experimental cloud-phase algorithm classifies nearly two-thirds of clouds in the 0° to –5°C layer as containing ice (cloud ice, snow, or mixed phase), implying that much of the precipitation grows through cold-cloud processes. The best predictors of ice presence are cloud-top temperature, cloud depth, and INP concentration. Measures of convective activity and turbulence are found to be poor indicators of ice presence in the studied environment. The water-phase distribution in this cloud regime is explored through numerical simulations in Part II. Significance Statement: Climate models generally predict a lower albedo than observed over the Southern Ocean, and this is largely attributed to a lack of cloudiness, especially in the postfrontal cold sector of midlatitude cyclones. This in turn may be due to an excess of ice in these simulated clouds, resulting in rapid precipitation fallout and an overly brief cloud lifespan. The objective of this study is to examine whether shallow postfrontal clouds over the Southern Ocean are dominated by supercooled drops, or by snow and ice, using data collected by a U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility deployed aboard an Australian Antarctic supply vessel. We find that these clouds contain much supercooled liquid, even though cloud-top temperatures generally are around –18° to –8°C, and that about two-thirds of the clouds just above the freezing level contain ice. Much of the precipitation appears to grow through cold-cloud processes above the freezing level, rather than drizzle/rain. Updrafts and/or turbulence in convection or in cloud-top generating cells do not initiate much ice, compared to observations elsewhere in a similar temperature range. This may be attributable to the extremely low concentration of ice nucleating particles in this environment. Ultimately, the deepest clouds with the coldest cloud tops are most likely to be ice dominated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multimodal Chemical Characterization of Brown Carbon in Atmosphere and Snowpack during SAIL Field Campaign Report

The main goal of this field project was to characterize the chemical and physical properties of light-absorbing particles (LAP) present in the atmosphere and snowpack. The specific field efforts included: 1) online measurement and sampling of light-absorbing particles using a Magee Scientific model AE33 aethalometer (AE33) and a time-resolved aerosol collector (TRAC); and 2) sampling of snowpack during observed events of LAP deposition on snow, confirmed by onsite U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility measurements and meteorological data. The ongoing research objectives of our follow-up sample and data analysis include: 1) Characterization of aerosol regimes and sources, identifying particle-type populations, mixing states, and atmospheric transformations based on correlative analysis of our detailed chemical imaging and chemical characterization measurements and real-time records from the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2) and other instruments available from the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) experiment; 2) Assessment of the optical and chemical properties of snowpack deposits to investigate how aerosol deposition influences snowpack lifetime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Theory for the Balance between Warm Rain and Ice Crystal Processes of Precipitation in Mixed-Phase Clouds

Abstract Mixed-phase clouds contain both supercooled cloud liquid and ice crystals. In principle, precipitation may be initiated either by the liquid phase or by the ice phase. Ice crystals may grow by vapor diffusion to become snow (“ice crystal process”), forming “cold” precipitation. Equally, cloud droplets, when large enough, coalesce to form “warm” precipitation by the “warm rain process.” Warm rain could be supercooled and freeze as “warm” graupel. In the present paper, a new simplified theoretical analysis is provided to examine the microphysical system consisting of three species of hydrometeor, namely, cloud liquid, “cold ice” (crystals, snow), and “warm rain” (frozen or supercooled). This is obtained by nondimensionalizing and simplifying the evolution equations for the mass of each species. Analytical formulas are given for equilibria. Feedback analysis shows that the sign of the feedback is linked to the abundance of precipitation, with a neutral surface in the 3D phase space. The system’s precipitation amount explodes while in the initial unstable regime, crossing the neutral surface and approaching the equilibrium point that is a stable attractor. Positive and negative feedbacks are elucidated. In a standard case, the cold ice mass is about 1000 times larger than the warm rain mass. To illustrate the physical behavior of the theory, sensitivity tests are performed with respect to environmental conditions (e.g., aerosol, updraft speed) and microphysical parameters (e.g., riming and sedimentation rates for cold ice). Cold ice prevails, especially in fast ascent, due to its low bulk density, favoring slow sedimentation and a wide cross-sectional area for riming. Significance Statement The theory elucidates how the ice phase can prevail in the precipitation from any mixed-phase clouds with supercooled cloud liquid and crystals. The ice phase radically suppresses cloud liquid by riming when active and “wins” the competition against coalescence. This prevalence of ice is shown to arise from the low bulk density of snow. The cloud is viewed as a system of negative and positive feedbacks that prevail in realms of stability and instability in a 3D phase space.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2004

Large Alluvial Fans on Mars

Several dozen distinct alluvial fans, 10 to greater than 40 km long downslope are observed exclusively in highlands craters. Within a search region between 0 deg. and 30 deg. S, alluvial fan-containing craters were only found between 18 and 29 S, and they all occur at around plus or minus 1 km of the MOLA-defined Martian datum. Within the study area they are not randomly distributed but instead form three distinct clusters. Fans typically descend greater than 1 km from where they disgorge from their alcoves. Longitudinal profiles show that their surfaces are very slightly concave with a mean slope of 2 degrees. Many fans exhibit very long, narrow low-relief ridges radially oriented down-slope, often branching at their distal ends, suggestive of distributaries. Morphometric data for 31 fans was derived from MOLA data and compared with terrestrial fans with high-relief source areas, terrestrial low gradient alluvial ramps in inactive tectonic settings, and older Martian alluvial ramps along crater floors. The Martian alluvial fans generally fall on the same trends as the terrestrial alluvial fans, whereas the gentler Martian crater floor ramps are similar in gradient to the low relief terrestrial alluvial surfaces. For a given fan gradient, Martian alluvial fans generally have greater source basin relief than terrestrial fans in active tectonic settings. This suggests that the terrestrial source basins either yield coarser debris or have higher sediment concentrations than their Martian counterpoints. Martian fans and Basin and Range fans have steeper gradients than the older Martian alluvial ramps and terrestrial low relief alluvial surfaces, which is consistent with a supply of coarse sediment. Martian fans are relatively large and of low gradient, similar to terrestrial fluvial fans rather than debris flow fans. However, gravity scaling uncertainties make the flow regime forming Martian fans uncertain. Martian fans, at least those in Holden crater, apparently formed around the time of the Noachian-Hesperian boundary. We infer that these fans formed during an episode of enhanced precipitation (probably snow) and runoff, which exhibited both sudden onset and termination.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating seasonal and regional distribution of snowfall in regional climate model simulations in the Arctic

In this study, we investigate how the regional climate model HIRHAM5 reproduces the spatial and temporal distribution of Arctic snowfall when compared to CloudSat satellite observations during the examined period of 2007–2010. For this purpose, both approaches, i.e., the assessments of the surface snowfall rate (observation-to-model) and the radar reflectivity factor profiles (model-to-observation), are carried out considering spatial and temporal sampling differences. The HIRHAM5 model, which is constrained in its synoptic representation by nudging to ERA-Interim, represents the snowfall in the Arctic region well in comparison to CloudSat products. The spatial distribution of the snowfall patterns is similar in both identifying the southeastern coast of Greenland and the North Atlantic corridor as regions gaining more than twice as much snowfall as the Arctic average, defined here for latitudes between 66 and 81°N. Excellent agreement (difference less than 1%) in the Arctic-averaged annual snowfall rate between HIRHAM5 and CloudSat is found, whereas ERA-Interim reanalysis shows an underestimation of 45% and significant deficits in the representation of the snowfall rate distribution. From the spatial analysis, it can be seen that the largest differences in the mean annual snowfall rates are an overestimation near the coastlines of Greenland and other regions with large orographic variations as well as an underestimation in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. To a large extent, the differences can be explained by clutter contamination, blind zone or higher resolution of CloudSat measurements, but clearly HIRHAM5 overestimates the orographic-driven precipitation. The underestimation of HIRHAM5 within the North Atlantic corridor south of Svalbard is likely connected to a poor description of the marine cold air outbreaks which could be identified by separating snowfall into different circulation weather type regimes. By simulating the radar reflectivity factor profiles from HIRHAM5 utilizing the Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer (PAMTRA) forward-modeling operator, the contribution of individual hydrometeor types can be assessed. Looking at a latitude band at 72–73°N, snow can be identified as the hydrometeor type dominating radar reflectivity factor values across all seasons. The largest differences between the observed and simulated reflectivity factor values are related to the contribution of cloud ice particles, which is underestimated in the model, most likely due to the small sizes of the particles. The model-to-observation approach offers a promising diagnostic when improving cloud schemes, as illustrated by comparison of different schemes available for HIRHAM5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mesoscale simulations of the November 25-26 and December 5-6 cirrus cases using the RAMS model

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), developed at Colorado State University, was used during the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) 2 (13 Nov. through 6 Dec. 1991) to provide real time forecasts of cirrus clouds. Forecasts were run once a day, initializing with the 0000 UTC dataset provided by NOAA (Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS)). In order to obtain better agreement with observations, a second set of simulations were done for the FIRE 2 cases that occurred on 25-26 Nov. and 5-6 Dec. In this set of simulations, a more complex radiation scheme was used, the Chen/Cotton radiation scheme, along with the nucleation of ice occurring at ice supersaturations as opposed to nucleation occurring at water supersaturations that was done in the actual forecast version. The runs using these more complex schemes took longer wall clock time (7-9 hours for the actual forecasts as compared to 12-14 hrs for the runs using the more complex schemes) however, the final results of the simulations were definitely improved upon. Comparisons between these two sets of simulations are given. Now underway are simulations of these cases using a closed analytical solution for the auto-conversion of ice from a pristine ice class (sizes less than about 50 microns in effective diameter) to a snow class (effective diameters on the order of several hundred microns). This solution is employed along with a new scheme for the nucleation of ice crystals due to Meyers et al and Demott et al. The scheme is derived assuming complete gamma distributions for both the pristine and snow classes. The time rate of change of the number concentration and mass mixing-ratio of each distribution is found by calculating either the flux of crystals that grow beyond a certain critical diameter by vapor deposition in an ice supersaturated regime or by calculating the flux of crystals that evaporate to sizes below that same critical effective diameter.

Harrington, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Evaluation of passive microwave precipitation algorithms in wintertime midlatitude situations

The second intercomparison project of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) examined the estimation of midlatitude, cool-season precipitation. As part of that effort, the authors report here on the results of two microwave techniques, the Goddard scattering algorithm and the physical retrieval algorithm of Kummerow. Results from the estimation of instantaneous rain rate for five overpasses of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) are presented in a case study mode to illustrate both the strong and weak points of each technique. These five cases represent a sampling of the various types of precipitating systems observed. Results for the complete set of 20 swaths chosen by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) are then categorized by scatterplots and statistics of instantaneous radar versus microwave-estimated rain rate, rain no-rain contingency tables, and scatterplots of areal coverage of rainfall. Neither algorithm produced a good statistical correlation with the radar data, yet in general, both did well at determining rainy areas. Two reasons are suggested for the low correlation coefficients between both algorithms and the radar data. Time differences between the SSM/I overpass and the radar observations can occasionally account for some of the differences. The primary reason for the low correlations, however, appears to be the predominance of very light rain in the area of interest during the winter. Both algorithms are in good spatial agreement with the radar when the radar data are restricted to rates above 1 mm/h. When all radar rain rates are included, the radar areal coverage increases by as much as a factor of 10 in some cases. Because the Kummerow algorithm does not handle such low rain rates over land very well, and because the Goddard scattering algorithm uses 1 mm/h as the minimum reliably detectable rain rate, regimes that contain large areas of very light rain present inherent difficulties for these retrieval methods. Therefore, the proliferation of low rain rates observed during the experiment is the main contributor to low correlation coefficients and high root-mean-square differences. Mididentification of cold surface (e.g., snow cover) as precipitation was also a problem in several instances.

Negri, Andrew J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ion Clusters Reveal the Sources, Impacts, and Drivers of Freshwater Salinization

Population growth, land use change, climate change, and natural resource extraction are driving the salinization of freshwater resources worldwide. Reversing these trends will require data-centric approaches that identify salt sources, environmental drivers, and ecosystem responses. In this study, we applied principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to identify ion covariance patterns, or “ion clusters,” in Broad Run, an urban stream in the Mid-Atlantic United States. These clusters correspond to distinct hydrologic regimes and reveal specific salinization risks: (1) phosphorus pollution mobilized during summer storms (Cluster 1); (2) elevated concentrations of sulfate and bicarbonate during baseflow (Cluster 2), likely reflecting groundwater discharge; and (3) elevated specific conductance and sodium, chloride, and potassium ion concentrations during snowmelt and rain-on-snow events (Cluster 3), driven by deicer and anti-icer wash-off. These ion fingerprints offer a transferable framework for diagnosing salt sources, assessing ecological risk, and identifying management targets. Our findings underscore the need for next-generation stormwater infrastructure and smart growth policies to protect aquatic life in rapidly urbanizing watersheds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗