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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Projecting Permafrost Thaw of Sub-Arctic Tundra With a Thermodynamic Model Calibrated to Site Measurements

Northern circumpolar permafrost thaw affects global carbon cycling, as large amounts of stored soil carbon becomes accessible to microbial breakdown under a warming climate. The magnitude of carbon release is linked to the extent of permafrost thaw, which is locally variable and controlled by soil thermodynamics. Soil thermodynamic properties, such as thermal diffusivity, govern the reactivity of the soil-atmosphere thermal gradient, and are controlled by soil composition and drainage. In order to project permafrost thaw for an Alaskan tundra experimental site, we used seven years of site data to calibrate a soil thermodynamic model using a data assimilation technique. The model reproduced seasonal and interannual temperature dynamics for shallow (5–40 cm) and deep soil layers (2–4 m), and simulations of seasonal thaw depth closely matched observed data. The model was then used to project permafrost thaw at the site to the year 2100 using climate forcing data for three future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Minimal permafrost thawing occurred until mean annual air temperatures rose above the freezing point, after which we measured over a 1 m increase in thaw depth for every 1 °C rise in mean annual air temperature. Under no projected warming scenario was permafrost remaining in the upper 3 m of soil by 2100. We demonstrated an effective data assimilation method that optimizes parameterization of a soil thermodynamic model. The sensitivity of local permafrost to climate warming illustrates the vulnerability of sub-Arctic tundra ecosystems to significant and rapid soil thawing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Post-Closure Report for Closed Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Units, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, For Calendar Year 2021 (Revision 1)

This report serves as the combined annual report for post-closure activities in compliance with the requirements listed in Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Permit Number NEV HW0101 associated with the following closed corrective action units (CAUs): CAU 90, Area 2 Bitcutter Containment; CAU 91, Area 3 U-3fi Injection Well; CAU 92, Area 6 Decon Pond Facility; CAU 110, Area 3 WMD U-3ax/bl Crater; CAU 111, Area 5 WMD Retired Mixed Waste Pits; and CAU 112, Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trenches. This report will address all monitoring requirements noted in the RCRA Permit NEV HW0101, except groundwater monitoring. Groundwater monitoring is documented in the Nevada National Security Site Data Report: Groundwater Monitoring Program Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydro-mechanical measurements and x-ray imaging of sheared crystalline rock fractures from EGS Collab experiments 1 & 2

Measuring hydro-mechanical properties of natural fractures is a prerequisite for optimizing hydraulic stimulation design and well placement. We completed experiments to characterize shear on natural fractures in schist, amphibolite, and rhyolite specimens drilled from EGS Collab Project’s field sites at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in South Dakota. A triaxial direct shear method and coupled x-ray imaging were used to perform hydroshearing and mechanical shearing at the site’s in-situ stress conditions. This produced simultaneous measurements of fracture and matrix strength, permeability, stress-dependent aperture, dilation, and friction strength. Our results identified that only a subset of the natural fractures was weak enough for hydroshearing. Generally, hydroshearing increases fracture permeability by a factor of 10 or more and the enhancement is retainable over time. However, the shear slip does not always result in permeability enhancement. High content of phyllosilicates was found to associate with exceptionally weak fractures that also exhibited poor or even negative enhancement after stimulation. Combining our measurements with site data, we can predict that most observable fractures at the two EGS Collab sites do not meet the criteria for hydroshearing before tensile opening. In some cases, the visible fractures are low permeability and as strong as the adjacent rock. To induce hydroshearing before tensile opening, injection must target known weak and favorably oriented fractures with confirmed pre-existing permeability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sampling and Analysis Plan for LSL2 Underground Storage Tank Evaluation of PFAS in Soil: Protection of Groundwater

This SAP gathers all pertinent information relevant to the sampling and analysis of soil at the removal site for a former 10,000-gallon UST and reference sites in the vicinity of the excavation site. Data Quality Objectives establishes the process and steps for the acquisition of data. Data Flow Diagram establishes the decisions and next steps. Quality Assurance Project Plan establishes the quality requirements for data collection, including planning, implementation, and assessment of sampling, field measurements, and laboratory analysis. The work is being completed for DOE-SC Pacific Northwest Site Office.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Cost of Decarbonization and Energy Upgrade Retrofits for US Homes

Cost is a major barrier when upgrading homes to reduce carbon emissions required to meet DOE’s climate-related goals. This report summarizes a nationwide effort to gather home energy upgrade project cost data along with household energy performance data. The goal was to develop cost benchmarks and to guide future R&D efforts aimed at cost compression and scaling of the residential upgrade market. The cost data were compiled for both total project costs and costs of individual measures. The majority of energy savings were modeled, with some models using measured site data for calibration. The database was analyzed using clustering techniques to find common energy and CO2 reduction approaches. The individual measures were combined into archetypal solutions to determine least-cost approaches to maximizing energy and carbon savings. Several financial analyses were preformed to examine other cost metrics beyond first cost. Project data was obtained for 1,739 projects, from 15 states and 12 energy programs, with a total of 10,512 individual measures. The database includes a wide-array of projects, ranging from single-measure HVAC upgrades to net-zero energy whole home remodels. Projects were predominantly single-family detached dwellings with wood frame construction. Most of the data was obtained from energy programs because they had recorded the necessary information and were willing to share with this study. This sample of convenience can provide broad guidance and national cost benchmarks, but lacks sufficient detail to draw more disaggregated conclusions, such as geographical trends. The majority of data contributions were obtained without compensation from sources where the required data was already in some sort of structured format. We compensated sources to enter data from individual projects into a structured data format for about 500 projects, with an average cost of about $40 per project. The database was highly skewed to lower cost, lower impact projects due to the nature of the sample of convenience. Less than 10% of projects had savings greater than 50%. The cost data for individual measures in the database are being used in other DOE efforts on residential energy use/decarbonization. This data collection effort should continue in order to provide the best-informed guidance for DOE and industry R&D, as well as deployment efforts (including policy and program planning).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Hydro-Mechanical Measurements of Sheared Crystalline Rock Fractures With Applications for EGS Collab Experiments 1 and 2

We present hydro-mechanical measurements that characterize shear on natural fractures in schist, amphibolite, and rhyolite specimens from the enhanced geothermal system (EGS) Collab Project's Experiment 1 and 2 sites (E1 and E2) at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. We employed a triaxial direct shear method augmented with X-ray imaging to perform hydroshearing (injection-induced shearing) and mechanical shearing on naturally fractured specimens at in situ stress conditions. Measurements included fracture permeability, strength, stress-dependent aperture, shear dilation, and frictional strength. Results reveal that in situ natural fractures must be permeable, weak, and shear-oriented to be hydrosheared, and only a subset of the observable in situ fractures were suitable. When sheared, the fracture permeability typically increased by a factor of 10 or more and this increase was retained over time. However, shear slip did not always result in permeability increase. High phyllosilicate content associated with exceptionally weak fractures exhibited poor or even decreased permeability after stimulation. These measurements in combination with site data were used to conduct a slip-tendency analysis for different fracture sets, and we selected the top candidate natural fractures for hydroshearing at the EGS Collab sites. We also found that the lower in situ shear stress and stronger fractures at the E2 site make hydroshearing more challenging than at the E1 site. Overall, the methods and analysis used in our work can be applied to any geothermal project to identify in situ joint sets that are best suited for hydroshearing, which in turn can help to optimize well placement and energy production.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fusion of Multiple Models for Improving Gross Primary Production Estimation With Eddy Covariance Data Based on Machine Learning

Abstract Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) represents the magnitude of CO 2 uptake through vegetation photosynthesis, and is a key variable for carbon cycles between the biosphere and atmosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models have been widely used to estimate GPP for its physiological mechanisms and availability of data acquisition and implementation, yet each individual GPP model has exhibited large uncertainties due to input errors and model structure, and further studies of systematic validation, comparison, and fusion of those models with eddy covariance (EC) site data across diverse ecosystem types are still needed in order to further improve GPP estimation. We here compared and fused five GPP models (VPM, EC‐LUE, GOL‐PEM, CHJ, and C‐Fix) across eight ecosystems based on FLUXNET2015 data set using the ensemble methods of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) separately. Our results showed that for individual models, EC‐LUE gave a better performance to capture interannual variability of GPP than other models, followed by VPM and GLO‐PEM, while CHJ and C‐Fix were more limited in their estimation performance. We found RF and SVM were superior to BMA on merging individual models at various plant functional types (PFTs) and at the scale of individual sites. On the basis of individual models, the fusion methods of BMA, SVM, and RF were examined by a five‐fold cross validation for each ecosystem type, and each method successfully improved the average accuracy of estimation by 8%, 18%, and 19%, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

GNSS-based Vegetation Optical Depth, Tree Sway, and Evapotranspiration data from the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest (US-NR1) AmeriFlux site

This data package contains data and information about Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD), tree sway motion, and eddy-covariance evapotranspiration (ET) data collected at the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest AmeriFlux site (US-NR1). The raw GNSS data were collected between May 2022 and August 2023. Other processed datasets such as tree sway motion and ET data are also included. The goal was to study the water content within a subalpine forest and, more specifically, examine the canopy evaporation process. This data archive includes all data that were used within the following Biogeosciences discussion paper that further summarizes the research objectives and conclusions:Burns, S.P., V. Humphrey, E.D. Gutmann, M.S. Raleigh, D.R. Bowling, and P.D. Blanken, 2025: Using GNSS-based vegetation optical depth, tree sway motion, and eddy-covariance to examine evaporation of canopy-intercepted rainfall in a subalpine forest. EGUsphere [preprint],https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1755This data archive also supplements the 30-min Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) AmeriFlux dataset for US-NR1 (i.e., https://doi.org/10.17190/AMF/1246088) and updates what was in the 2020 ESS-DIVE US-NR1 archive (https://doi.org/10.15485/1671825) to include data from the years 2020-2025. More specifically, the following updates are provided: (i) five-minute statistics (means, variances, covariances) of all data measured by the US-NR1 data system between Sep 2020 and Jun 2025 in netCDF format, (ii) the electronic logbook of US-NR1 site visits, (iii) a web calendar (in HTML format) documenting activity at the site (a replica of https://urquell.colorado.edu/calendar/), (iv) photos taken at the site between years 2020 and present day (Aug 2025), and (v) several auxiliary datasets, primary related to trees near the site, soil properties, soil moisture and soil temperature, and subcanopy radiation data. The data package is setup so that the web calendar, photos, and electronic logbook can be easily accessed on a local computer using a web browser. The provided data files are in either BINEX or SBF format (for the raw GNSS data), netCDF, CSV, ASCII, or MATLAB format. To obtain a better understanding about the archive, please start by reading the following PDF which is included within the data archive:README_ESS_DIVE_USNR1_2025_readme_first.pdf.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗