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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

ATLAS Data Analysis using a Parallel Workflow on Distributed Cloud-based Services with GPUs

A new type of parallel workflow is developed for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, that makes use of distributed computing combined with a cloud-based infrastructure. This has been developed for a specific type of analysis using ATLAS data, one popularly referred to as Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). The JAX library is used for the parts of the workflow to compute gradients as well as accelerate program execution using just-in-time compilation, which becomes essential in a full SBI analysis and can also offer significant speed-ups in more traditional types of analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep inference of simulated strong lenses in ground-based surveys

The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future astronomical surveys will likely enhance the value of strong gravitational lensing as a cosmic probe of dark energy and dark matter. However, leveraging the increased statistical power of such large samples will require further development of automated lens modeling techniques. We show that deep learning and simulation-based inference (SBI) methods produce informative and reliable estimates of parameter posteriors for strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys. We present the examination and comparison of two approaches to lens parameter estimation for strong galaxy-galaxy lenses — Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We perform inference on 1-, 5-, and 12-parameter lens models for ground-based imaging data that mimics the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that NPE outperforms BNNs, producing posterior distributions that are more accurate, precise, and well-calibrated for most parameters. For the 12-parameter NPE model, the calibration is consistently within <10% of optimal calibration for all parameters, while the BNN is rarely within 20% of optimal calibration for any of the parameters. Similarly, residuals for most of the parameters are smaller (by up to an order of magnitude) with the NPE model than the BNN model. This work takes important steps in the systematic comparison of methods for different levels of model complexity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy Distribution of the Galactic Center Excess’s Sources

The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) may yet herald the discovery of annihilating dark matter. Weighing against that conclusion are analyses showing evidence for dim point sources within the spatial structure of the emission. Because of technical limitations these analyses are purely spatial with all spectral information that could disentangle the excess from astrophysical backgrounds discarded. Here, we demonstrate that a neural network simulation-based inference approach can jointly analyze the spatial and spectra data. The addition is profound: energy information drives the putative point sources to be significantly dimmer, indicating either the GCE is truly diffuse in nature or made of an exceptionally large number of sources. Quantitatively, for our best fit background model, the excess is essentially consistent with Poisson emission as predicted by dark matter. If due to point sources, our median prediction is O(10^{5}) sources, or more than 35 000 at 90% confidence-both orders of magnitude larger than the hundreds preferred by earlier point-source analyses of the GCE, although variations allowed by background systematics could reduce the required number of sources by roughly an order of magnitude.

List, Florian↗
DOE OSTI2025

ASCR Workshop Position Paper: Challenges and Opportunities in High Energy Physics

High energy particle physics and cosmology concern themselves with estimating fundamental parameters of nature, such as the masses and interactions of fundamental particles like the Higgs boson and the rate of expansion of the universe. In doing so, they analyze exabyte-scale datasets, some of the largest in all of science, and face many challenges in subsequent data analysis. These challenges are shared between the two disciplines, but we focus on particle physics to highlight one specific domain. In particle physics, the standard method for estimating parameters involves performing Monte Carlo (MC) integration as a function of both parameters of interest and nuisance parameters using an expensive simulator, counting the number of observed collision events (i.i.d. samples) from an experiment in the corresponding integration domains, and forming a Poisson likelihood function. This likelihood function is then used in a Frequentist manner to construct a maximum likelihood point estimate (MLE) and confidence set for the parameters. To sufficiently populate the high-dimensional integration domains, simulators consume billions of CPU-hours annually and produce hundreds of petabytes of intermediate output data. Several techniques have been developed to: optimize definitions of the integration domains so as to be maximally sensitive to a particular subset of parameters, efficiently estimate the integrals, and build robust surrogate models by interpolating between integral evaluations at different parameter points. One can view this whole endeavor as classical Simulation-Based Inference (SBI).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Neural Posterior Estimation for Galaxy-Galaxy Strong Lensing

We present a deep learning model based on neural posterior estimation (NPE) for comprehensive extraction of astrophysical parameters from galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses. The unprecedentedly large amount of galaxy-scale strong lenses expected in future cosmological surveys (${\cal O}(10^5)$) promises to enable valuable statistical constraints in various studies ranging from galaxy formation to the nature of dark matter, but it also poses a significant challenge for traditional modelling pipelines. To this end, our automated model includes several new, state-of-the-art features and approaches leveraging the framework of simulation-based inference (SBI). We infer a total of 20 parameters describing the mass and light profiles of both lens and source galaxies, using simulated raw multi-band data modelled under noise and observing conditions expected by the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), with its summary statistics generated by a residual network. We examine the efficacy of multi-band data in extracting nearly 20 model parameters simultaneous from strong lensing images including lens light. Finally, We perform a comprehensive set of diagnostics for SBI models, evaluating the model's prediction accuracy, stability, and uncertainty quantification.

Zhao, Roy J. [Chicago U., KICP]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Domain-Adaptive Neural Posterior Estimation for Strong Gravitational Lens Analysis

Modeling strong gravitational lenses is prohibitively expensive for modern and next-generation cosmic survey data. Neural posterior estimation (NPE), a simulation-based inference (SBI) approach, has been studied as an avenue for efficient analysis of strong lensing data. However, NPE has not been demonstrated to perform well on out-of-domain target data -- e.g., when trained on simulated data and then applied to real, observational data. In this work, we perform the first study of the efficacy of NPE in combination with unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA). The source domain is noiseless, and the target domain has noise mimicking modern cosmology surveys. We find that combining UDA and NPE improves the accuracy of the inference by 1-2 orders of magnitude and significantly improves the posterior coverage over an NPE model without UDA. We anticipate that this combination of approaches will help enable future applications of NPE models to real observational data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Matter Constraints from Small-Scale Cosmic Structure

Small-scale cosmic structure provides a powerful test of the fundamental nature of dark matter (DM). A wide range of DM models impact matter clustering on small scales, including warm, fuzzy, and (self-)interacting DM. In these scenarios, DM physics such as free-streaming, wave interference, and self/Standard Model interactions alter the abundance and internal structure of DM halos. Cosmological and astrophysical probes of nonlinear structure---including dwarf galaxies, strong lensing, the Lyman-$α$ forest, stellar streams, and high-redshift galaxies---are therefore sensitive to these effects. Here, we review DM constraints provided by small-scale structure, focusing on observables that probe scales smaller than $\sim 1~\mathrm{Mpc}$, which define the frontier of current measurements. We summarize how these constraints have been translated to limits on microphysical DM models, and we discuss key modeling uncertainties and observational systematics. Finally, we highlight the growing importance of probe combination and simulation-based inference for this field, and we overview upcoming observational facilities that will sharpen small-scale structure tests of DM physics.

Nadler, Ethan O. [UC, San Diego] (ORCID:0000000211↗
DOE OSTI2025

Map-level baryonification: unified treatment of weak lensing two-point and higher-order statistics

Precision cosmology benefits from extracting maximal information from cosmic structures, motivating the use of higher-order statistics (HOS) at small spatial scales. However, predicting how baryonic processes modify matter statistics at these scales has been challenging. The baryonic correction model (BCM) addresses this by modifying dark-matter-only simulations to mimic baryonic effects, providing a flexible, simulation-based framework for predicting both two-point and HOS. We show that a 3-parameter version of the BCM can jointly fit weak lensing maps' two-point statistics, wavelet phase harmonics coefficients, scattering coefficients, and the third and fourth moments to within 2% accuracy across all scales ℓ < 2000 and tomographic bins for a DES-Y3-like redshift distribution ( z ≲ 2), using the FLAMINGO simulations. These results demonstrate the viability of BCM-assisted, simulation-based weak lensing inference of two-point and HOS, paving the way for robust cosmological constraints that fully exploit non-Gaussian information on small spatial scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Neural Network Approaches for Conditional Optimal Transport with Applications in Bayesian Inference

In this work, we present two neural network approaches that approximate the solutions of static and dynamic conditional optimal transport (COT) problems. Both approaches enable conditional sampling and conditional density estimation, which are core tasks in Bayesian inference—particularly in the simulation-based (“likelihood-free”) setting. Our methods represent the target conditional distribution as a transformation of a tractable reference distribution. Obtaining such a transformation, chosen here to be an approximation of the COT map, is computationally challenging even in moderate dimensions. To improve scalability, our numerical algorithms use neural networks to parameterize candidate maps and further exploit the structure of the COT problem. Our static approach approximates the map as the gradient of a partially input convex neural network. It uses a novel numerical implementation to increase computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art alternatives. Our dynamic approach approximates the conditional optimal transport via the flow map of a regularized neural ODE; compared to the static approach, it is slower to train but offers more modeling choices and can lead to faster sampling. We demonstrate both algorithms numerically, comparing them with competing state-of-the-art approaches, using benchmark datasets and simulation-based Bayesian inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the Cosmological Lyman-𝛼 Forest at the Field Level

The distribution of absorption lines in the spectra of distant quasars, called the Lyman-𝛼 (Ly-𝛼) forest, is a unique probe of cosmology and the intergalactic medium at high redshifts and small scales. The statistical power of ongoing redshift surveys demands precise theoretical tools to model the Ly-𝛼 forest. We address this challenge by developing an analytic, perturbative forward model to predict the Ly-𝛼 forest at the field level for a given set of cosmological initial conditions. Our model shows a remarkable performance when compared with the Sherwood hydrodynamic simulations: it reproduces the Ly-𝛼 forest flux power spectrum, its cross-correlation with dark matter halos, and the one-point probability distribution function of both fields at the percent level down to scales of a few Mpc. Our work provides crucial tools that bridge analytic modeling on large scales with simulations on small scales, enabling field-level inference from Ly-𝛼 forest data and simulation-based priors for cosmological analyses. Furthermore, this is especially timely for realizing the full scientific potential of the Ly-𝛼 forest measurements by the dark energy spectroscopic instrument.

Cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

SPT-3G D1: A Measurement of Secondary Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropy Power

We report new measurements of millimeter-wave temperature power spectra in the angular multipole range $1700 \le \ell \le 11,000$ (wavelengths $13^\prime \gtrsim λ\gtrsim 2^\prime$). We use two years of data in three observing bands centered near 95, 150, and 220 GHz from the SPT-3G receiver on the South Pole Telescope that cover a 1646 deg$^2$ region of the Southern sky. Using the measured power spectra, we present constraints on the thermal and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effects, radio galaxies, and cosmic infrared background (CIB). We find that inferred SZ powers are dependent on the detailed modeling of the thermal SZ-CIB correlation, and to a lesser extent on the assumed angular dependence of the SZ spectra. We report constraints for simulation-based model templates as well as fits where the angular dependencies of the SZ and CIB power spectra are allowed to vary. In the latter case at $\ell=3000$, we find thermal SZ power at 143 GHz of $D_{3000}^{\rm tSZ} = 4.91\pm0.37\, μ{\rm K}^2$ and kinematic SZ power of $D_{3000}^{\rm kSZ} =1.75\pm0.86\, μ{\rm K}^2$. We use the measured kinematic SZ power to estimate the duration of reionization, noting that the reionization inferences are sensitive to the model choices and assumed level of homogeneous kinematic SZ power from the late-time universe. We find a 95% limit on the duration from an ionization fraction of 25% to 75% of $Δ^{50} z_{\rm re} <\,3.8$ based on a semi-analytic model, or a limit on the duration from an ionization fraction of 5% to 95% of $Δ^{90} z_{\rm re} <\,6.1$ based on the AMBER simulations.

Chaubal, P. [Melbourne U.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

An analytic approximation to the covariance between pre- and post-reconstruction galaxy two-point statistics

We present a simple analytic approximation for the covariance between pre-reconstruction galaxy power spectrum measurements and post-reconstruction two-point correlation functions. This cross-covariance is essential for joint analyses that combine full-shape clustering information with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, as commonly performed in modern spectroscopic surveys. Our model builds on the disconnected contribution to the covariance and accounts for the damping of correlations due to the BAO reconstruction process. We validate our analytic prescription against numerical simulations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), testing both idealized cubic geometries and realistic survey configurations including complex footprints and fiber assignment effects. Despite neglecting survey window functions in the analytic calculation, we find excellent agreement with simulation-based covariances and demonstrate that cosmological parameter constraints are virtually unchanged when using our approximation. Our results show that the pre-post cross-covariance is sufficiently small that even approximate treatments are adequate for cosmological inference, opening a pathway toward fully analytic covariance matrices for next-generation galaxy surveys.

baryon acoustic oscillations↗
NASA NTRS2021

Computational Inference of Vibratory System with Incomplete Modal Information Using Parallel, Interactive and Adaptive Markov Chains

Inverse analysis of vibratory system is an important subject in fault identification, model updating, and robust design and control. It is challenging subject because 1) the problem is oftentimes underdetermined while the measurements are limited and/or incomplete; 2) many combinations of parameters may yield results that are similar with respect to actual response measurements; and 3) uncertainties inevitably exist. The aim of this research is to leverage upon computational intelligence through statistical inference to facilitate an enhanced, probabilistic framework using incomplete modal response measurement. This new framework is built upon efficient inverse identification through optimization, whereas Bayesian inference is employed to account for the effect of uncertainties. To overcome the computational cost barrier, we adopt Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to characterize the target function/distribution. Instead of using single Markov chain in conventional Bayesian approach, we develop a new sampling theory with multiple parallel, interactive and adaptive Markov chains and incorporate it into Bayesian inference. This can harness the collective power of these Markov chains to realize the concurrent search of multiple local optima. The number of required Markov chains and their respective initial model parameters are automatically determined via Monte Carlo simulation-based sample pre-screening followed by K-means clustering analysis. These enhancements can effectively address the aforementioned challenges in finite element inverse analysis. The validity of this framework is systematically demonstrated through case studies.

K Zhou↗
DOE OSTI2025

A DECADE of dwarfs: first detection of weak lensing around spectroscopically confirmed low-mass galaxies

We present the first detection of weak gravitational lensing around spectroscopically confirmed dwarf galaxies, using the large overlap between DESI DR1 spectroscopic data and DECADE/DES weak lensing catalogs. A clean dwarf galaxy sample with well-defined redshift and stellar mass cuts enables excess surface mass density measurements in two stellar mass bins ($\log \rm{M}_*=[8.2, 9.2]~M_\odot$ and $\log \rm{M}_*=[9.2, 10.2]~M_\odot$), with signal-to-noise ratios of $5.6$ and $12.4$ respectively. This signal-to-noise drops to $4.5$ and $9.2$ respectively for measurements without applying individual inverse probability (IIP) weights, which mitigates fiber incompleteness from DESI's targeting. The measurements are robust against variations in stellar mass estimates, photometric shredding, and lensing calibration systematics. Using a simulation-based modeling framework with stellar mass function priors, we constrain the stellar mass-halo mass relation and find a satellite fraction of $\simeq 0.3$, which is higher than previous photometric studies but $1.5σ$ lower than $Λ$CDM predictions. We find that IIP weights have a significant impact on lensing measurements and can change the inferred $f_{\rm{sat}}$ by a factor of two, highlighting the need for accurate fiber incompleteness corrections for dwarf galaxy samples. Our results open a new observational window into the galaxy-halo connection at low masses, showing that future massively multiplexed spectroscopic observations and weak lensing data will enable stringent tests of galaxy formation models and $Λ$CDM predictions.

To, Chun-Hao [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.;↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Mitigating the Impact of Extragalactic Foregrounds for the DR6 Cosmic Microwave Background Lensing Analysis

We investigate the impact and mitigation of extragalactic foregrounds for the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing power spectrum analysis of Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) data release 6 (DR6) data. Two independent microwave sky simulations are used to test a range of mitigation strategies. We demonstrate that finding and then subtracting point sources, finding and then subtracting models of clusters, and using a profile bias-hardened lensing estimator together reduce the fractional biases to well below statistical uncertainties, with the inferred lensing amplitude, A lens , biased by less than 0.2σ. We also show that another method where a model for the cosmic infrared background (CIB) contribution is deprojected and high-frequency data from Planck is included has similar performance. Other frequency-cleaned options do not perform as well, either incurring a large noise cost or resulting in biased recovery of the lensing spectrum. In addition to these simulation-based tests, we also present null tests on the ACT DR6 data for sensitivity of our lensing spectrum estimation to differences in foreground levels between the two ACT frequencies used, while nulling the CMB lensing signal. These tests pass whether the nulling is performed at the map or bandpower level. The CIB-deprojected measurement performed on the DR6 data is consistent with our baseline measurement, implying that contamination from the CIB is unlikely to significantly bias the DR6 lensing spectrum. This collection of tests gives confidence that the ACT DR6 lensing measurements and cosmological constraints presented in companion papers to this work are robust to extragalactic foregrounds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weak lensing combined with the kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect: a study of baryonic feedback

ABSTRACT Extracting precise cosmology from weak lensing surveys requires modelling the non-linear matter power spectrum, which is suppressed at small scales due to baryonic feedback processes. However, hydrodynamical galaxy formation simulations make widely varying predictions for the amplitude and extent of this effect. We use measurements of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 weak lensing (WL) and Atacama Cosmology Telescope DR5 kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) to jointly constrain cosmological and astrophysical baryonic feedback parameters using a flexible analytical model, ‘baryonification’. First, using WL only, we compare the $S_8$ constraints using baryonification to a simulation-calibrated halo model, a simulation-based emulator model, and the approach of discarding WL measurements on small angular scales. We find that model flexibility can shift the value of $S_8$ and degrade the uncertainty. The kSZ provides additional constraints on the astrophysical parameters, with the joint WL + kSZ analysis constraining $S_8=0.823^{+0.019}_{-0.020}$. We measure the suppression of the non-linear matter power spectrum using WL + kSZ and constrain a mean feedback scenario that is more extreme than the predictions from most hydrodynamical simulations. We constrain the baryon fractions and the gas mass fractions and find them to be generally lower than inferred from X-ray observations and simulation predictions. We conclude that the WL + kSZ measurements provide a new and complementary benchmark for building a coherent picture of the impact of gas around galaxies across observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗