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Megafires in a Warming World: What Wildfire Risk Factors Led to California’s Largest Recorded Wildfire
Massive wildfires and extreme fire behavior are becoming more frequent across the westernUnited States, creating a need to better understand how megafire behavior will evolve in our warmingworld. Here, the fire spread model Prometheus is used to simulate the initial explosive growth ofthe 2020 August Complex, which occurred in northern California (CA) mixed conifer forests. Hightemperatures, low relative humidity, and daytime southerly winds were all highly correlated withextreme rates of modeled spread. Fine fuels reached very dry levels, which accelerated simulationgrowth and heightened fire heat release (HR). Model sensitivity tests indicate that fire growth andHR are most sensitive to aridity and fuel moisture content. Despite the impressive early observedgrowth of the fire, shifting the simulation ignition to a very dry September 2020 heatwave predicted a>50% increase in growth and HR, as well as increased nighttime fire activity. Detailed model analysesof how extreme fire behavior develops can help fire personnel prepare for problematic ignitions.
Rover Relocalization for Mars Sample Return by Virtual Template Synthesis and Matching
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Rover Relocalization for Mars Sample Return by Virtual Template Synthesis and Matching
No abstract provided
Satellite Data Applications for Sustainable Energy Transitions
Transitioning to a sustainable energy system poses a massive challenge to communities, nations, and the global economy in the next decade and beyond. A growing portfolio of satellite data products is available to support this transition. Satellite data complement other information sources to provide a more complete picture of the global energy system, often with continuous spatial coverage over targeted areas or even the entire Earth. We find that satellite data are already being applied to a wide range of energy issues with varying information needs, from planning and operation of renewable energy projects, to tracking changing patterns in energy access and use, to monitoring environmental impacts and verifying the effectiveness of emissions reduction efforts. While satellite data could play a larger role throughout the policy and planning lifecycle, there are technical, social, and structural barriers to their increased use. We conclude with a discussion of opportunities for satellite data applications to energy and recommendations for research to maximize the value of satellite data for sustainable energy transitions.
Correction of Path Integrated Attenuation Estimates Considering the Soil Moisture Effect for the Gpm Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar
Spaceborne precipitation radars, including the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission’s Precipitation Radar (PR) and the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission’s Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR), measure not only precipitation echoes but surface echoes as well, the latter of which are used to estimate the path-integrated attenuation (PIA) in the surface reference technique (SRT). In our previous study based on analyzing PR measurements, we found that attenuation-free surface backscattering cross sections (denoted by s0e) over land increased in the presence of precipitation. This behavior, called the soil moisture effect, causes an underestimate of the PIA by the SRT as the method does not explicitly consider this effect. In this study, measurements made by Ku-band Precipitation Radar (KuPR) and Ka-band Precipitation Radar (KaPR), which comprise the DPR, were analyzed to examine whether KuPR and KaPR exhibit similar dependencies on the soil moisture as does the PR. For both KuPR and KaPR, an increase in s0e was observed for a large portion of the land area, except for forests and deserts. Results from the Hitschfeld–Bordan (HB) method suggest that s0e increases with the surface precipitation rate for light precipitation events. Meanwhile, for heavy precipitation, owing to the degradation of the HB method, it is difficult to estimate s0e quantitatively. Thus, a correction method for PIA that considers the soil moisture effect was developed and implemented into the DPR standard algorithm. With this correction, the surface precipitation rate estimates increased by approximately 18%for KuPR and 15%for the normal scan of KaPR over land.
Robust Vision-based Multi-spacecraft Guidance Navigation and Control using CNN-based Pose Estimation
In this paper, we present an end-to-end simulation framework for tracking an uncooperative Target spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit using a CubeSat-class Ego spacecraft outfitted with a camera. Currently, capturing high-fidelity realistic images in space for this scenario is difficult and exorbitantly expensive. Therefore, we developed a framework to simulate the spacecraft orbits in Basilisk software and generate high-fidelity realistic images of spacecraft in Unreal Engine, including the effects from Sun, Earth, Moon and stars. The Ego spacecraft uses cameras to capture images of the uncooperative Target and estimates its position and attitude using a CNN based 6DOF pose estimation pipeline, eliminating need for large SWAP-C(Size, Weight, Power and Cost) sensors like LIDAR or reliance on inter-spacecraft communication, This CNN, which is motivated by ESA’s Pose Estimation challenge of 2019, is trained using simulated data from our end-to-end simulation framework. We compare the performance of two distinct CNNbased algorithms for pose estimation along a nominal trajectory. In presence of non-Gaussian modeling uncertainties, the statedependent estimation error is characterized with a quadratic upper-bound. The quadratically-bounded error can be used by a robust controller to maneuver
Current Status of Martian Moons eXploration (MMX) Contamination Control and Curation Activity
Martian Moons eXploration (MMX) is a sample return mission from the Martian moon Phobos. The MMX spacecraft is scheduled to launch in 2026 and return to Earth in 2031. The main science goals of MMX are “to reveal the origin of the Martian moons and make progress in the understanding of planetary system formation and material transport in the solar system, and to observe processes that impact the circumplanetary and surface environments of Mars”. MMX has two sampling systems: coring (C)-sampler and pneumatic (P)-sampler and plans to bring back >10 g of Phobos sample. The retuned sample in the sample capsule will be transferred to the curation facility in ISAS/JAXA for sample curation and subsequent sample analysis. Contamination control of the sample return mission requires special care to prevent terrestrial contamination to the spacecraft, which would ruin the scientific value of the returned sample. Retaining the pristineness of the retuned sample is an important task of the MMX Curation and Sampler Science teams. The basis of the contamination control is (1) to minimize and understand the nature and amount of contaminants, (2) to perform contamination assessment and evaluate the effect of contaminants in the spacecraft on the retuned sample, (3) to employ a contamination knowledge (CK) material coupon in the spacecraft to identify the contaminants in the returned samples. In the MMX contamination control plan, the allowable contamination level for each contaminant is carefully defined. They are mostly set to be 1/1000 of the expected amount of each material in the returned sample and are divided into two main categories: organic and inorganic. The allowable atmospheric leakage rate to the sample container is also defined. The allowable contamination level of the organic materials is based on the composition of carbonaceous chondrites. The target contaminants are amino acids, aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons, carboxylic acids, etc. In case of the inorganic materials, the target contaminants are important elements to permit distinguishing the origin of the Martian moon by nucleosynthetic isotope anomalies (Cr, Ti, and Mo) and to reveal the evolution of the Martian moon by chronology (Hf, W, U, Pb, Rb, Sr, Sm, and Nd). The key instrument of contamination control in the sample return mission is the sampler system. The C-sampler has been developed by JAXA and the P-sampler was provided by Honeybee/NASA. In MMX, materials used in the two samplers (C- and P- sampler) were carefully selected to avoid potential contamination from the design stage of the system. The individual parts of the C-sampler FM (Flight Model) were thoroughly cleaned at the curation facility in ISAS/JAXA by the full-course cleaning procedure, which is an ultrasonic cleaning with organic solvents and ultrapure water in several steps. The equivalent level of cleaning was also carried out on the P-Samper FM as well by Honeybee Robotics in the USA. Now, MMX is in the critical phase for contamination control called ATLO: Assembly, Test, and Launch Operations. During the ATLO phase, sampler FM is constantly purged with nitrogen gas and maintained at positive pressure to prevent environmental contamination. The surrounding environments of the sampler FM are also simultaneously monitored using the CK Monitoring Coupon Set, which consists of several witness materials such as a glass petri dish, sapphire glass disk, and carbon adhesive tape (Figure 1). The detailed environmental assessment of each clean room used for the assembly and test of the sampler FM has also been conducted. This assessment includes microbial analysis, which was performed for OSIRIS-REx. Regarding the sample recovery and sample curation, we have started the designing of Sample Container Disassembling Instrument for the sample recovery from the sample container and the MMX curation chamber for sample curation. The curation protocol for the Phobos returned sample has also been discussed by the MMX Sample Analysis Working Team (SAWT). The MMX curation protocol consists of three phases: (1) quick analysis, (2) pre-basic characterization, and (3) basic characterization. (1) is extraction of the sample gas from the sample container and analysis by mass spectrometry, (2) is observation in bulk level, and (3) is observation in grain level and allocation of the sample aliquots. In parallel with the curation protocol, the returned sample undergoes preliminary examination for scientific investigations to achieve science goals. In addition, the CK witness plates made of sapphire glass are on board the sampler system. The CK witness plates will be recovered from the sampler system and analyzed by SAWT for the assessment of in-flight contamination.
Contamination Control and Assessment Strategy for Martian Moons Exploration (MMX)
Martian Moons eXploration (MMX) is a sample return mission from the Martian moon Phobos. The MMX spacecraft is scheduled for launch in 2026 and return to Earth in 2031. The primary science objective of MMX is to reveal the origin of the Martian moons, thereby advancing the understanding of planetary system formation and material transport in the solar system, as well as to observe processes affecting the circumplanetary and surface environments of Mars. The returned sample will be transported to the curation facility at ISAS/JAXA, and the subsequent curation and sample analysis activity will be conducted. As a sample return mission, MMX requires strict contamination control to prevent the intrusion of terrestrial materials.
Thermal changes along the urban-rural continuums in Southeast Asia
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