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At least 55 records · Page 3

CMIP7 data request: Earth system priorities and opportunities

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data pertaining to Earth systems science, and provides justification for the resources needed to produce this data. Topics within the CMIP7 Earth System (CMIP7-ES) theme centre around tracking of flows of energy, carbon, water and other fluxes across domains, and constraining feedbacks between these cycles and the climate system. These topics are summarized in this paper as scientific “opportunities” describing specific model intercomparison experiments and use cases for next-generation Earth System Model (ESM) output. These opportunities were submitted by modelling groups and scientific consortia following an extended public consultation process. Contained within each opportunity are requests for groups of Climate & Forecasting (CF) variables, which are bundled into variable groups representing all data required to address the opportunities' needs. Novel opportunities in CMIP7 compared with previous phases will include running `emissions-driven' simulations that integrate carbon emissions and removal scenarios with updated representations of the global carbon cycle, expanded variable groups needed to model marine trophic interactions and biogeochemistry, and data needed to understand the risk of global tipping points, among others. The production of these variables will close key gaps and uncertainties identified during previous rounds of CMIP, and support the 7th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR7). We argue that CMIP7-ES data will be broadly used by scientific, policy, governmental, industry, and other communities that rely on climate model projections for research and decision making. As an author group we also reflect on the evolution of the CMIP7-ES data request as a part of a deliberative process in support of the global CMIP program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stability and convergence of nuclear detonations in white dwarf collisions

We investigate the numerical stability of thermonuclear detonations in 1D accelerated reactive shocks and 2D binary collisions of equal-mass magnetized and unmagnetized white dwarf stars. To achieve high resolution at initiation sites, we devised geometric gridding and mesh velocity strategies specially adapted to the unique requirements of head-on collisional geometries, scenarios in which one expects maximum production of iron-group products. We study the effects of grid resolution and the limiting of temperature, energy, and reactants for different stellar masses, separations, magnetic fields, inigenerationtial compositions, detonation mechanisms, and limiter parameters across a range of cell sizes from 1 to 100 km. Our results set bounds on the parameter space of limiter amplitudes for which both temperature- and energy-limiting procedures yield consistent and monotonically convergent solutions. Within these bounds, we find that grid resolutions of 5 km or better are necessary for uncertainties in total released energy and iron-group products to drop below 10%. Intermediate-mass products (e.g., calcium) exhibit similar convergence trends but with somewhat greater uncertainty. These conclusions apply equally to pure C/O white dwarfs, multispecies compositions (including helium shells), magnetized and unmagnetized cores, and either single or multiple detonation scenarios.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather

Abstract Regional climate models can be used to examine how past weather events might unfold under different climate conditions by simulating analogue versions of those events with modified thermodynamic conditions (i.e., warming signals). Here, we apply this approach by dynamically downscaling a 40-year sequence of past weather from 1980–2019 driven by atmospheric re-analysis, and then repeating this 40-year sequence a total of 8 times using a range of time-evolving thermodynamic warming signals that follow 4 80-year future warming trajectories from 2020–2099. Warming signals follow two emission scenarios (SSP585 and SSP245) and are derived from two groups of global climate models based on whether they exhibit relatively high or low climate sensitivity. The resulting dataset, which contains 25 hourly and over 200 3-hourly variables at 12 km spatial resolution, can be used to examine a plausible range of future climate conditions in direct reference to previously observed weather and enables a systematic exploration of the ways in which thermodynamic change influences the characteristics of historical extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fermion mass, axion dark matter, and leptogenesis in SO(10) GUT

SO(10) grand unified theory with minimum parameters in the Yukawa sector employs the Peccei-Quinn symmetry that solves the strong C P problem. Such an economical Yukawa sector is highly appealing and has been extensively studied in the literature. However, when the running of the renormalization group equations of the Yukawa couplings are considered, this scenario shows some tension with the observed fermion masses and mixing. In this work, we propose an extension of the minimal framework that utilizes lower dimensional representations and alleviates this tension by introducing only a few new parameters. The proposed model consists of a fermion in the fundamental and a scalar in the spinorial representations. While the latter is needed to implement the Peccei-Quinn symmetry successfully, the presence of both is essential in obtaining an excellent fit to the fermion mass spectrum. In our model, axions serve the role of dark matter, and the out-of-equilibrium decays of the right-handed neutrinos successfully generate the matter-antimatter symmetry of the Universe. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Nuclear Security Interface Considerations for Regaining Control of Discovered Nuclear and Radioactive Materials

Recognizing that regaining control of orphan radioactive and nuclear material is challenging, the international community has developed requirements and guidance to support countries in addressing the problem. However, limited guidance is available on the practical nuclear security related issues that arise when nuclear or other radioactive material out of regulatory control (MORC) is encountered and efforts are undertaken to regain control. For example, the IAEA Specific Safety Guide No. SSG-19, “National Strategy for Regaining Control over Orphan Sources and Improving Control over Vulnerable Sources”, provides recommendations on a methodology for establishing a national strategy for regaining control of orphan sources. However, except for Pu239 in radioactive sources, nuclear material is outside the scope of this safety guide, and practical safety and security measures below the level of national strategy are not discussed adequately.This paper discusses the interfaces between the stakeholder groups and the responsibilities of each when encountering common scenarios that deal with MORC transitioning to regulatory control. The stakeholders include but are not limited to individuals who encounter MORC, and providers of formal and informal transport systems, and traditional and ad hoc storage solutions. This paper explores practical legal, financial, and institutional issues that hinder implementation of required safety and security practices. This paper also offers strategies that can be implemented on the individual, organizational, national, and international level to regain control of MORC.

Shannon, Michael↗

Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7

Scenarios have been an important integrating element in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the understanding of possible climate outcomes, impacts and risks, and mitigation futures. Integration supports a consistent, coherent assessment, new insights and the opportunity to address policy-relevant questions that would not be possible otherwise, for example, which impacts are unavoidable, which are reversible, what is a consistent remaining carbon budget to keep temperatures below a level and what would be a consistent route of action to achieve that goal. The AR6 builds on community frameworks that are developed to support a coherent use of scenarios across the assessment, yet their use in the assessment and the related timelines presented coordination challenges. From lessons within each Working Group (WG) assessment and the cross-WG experience, we present insights into the role of scenarios in future assessments, including the enhanced integration of impacts into scenarios, near-term information and community coordination efforts. Recommendations and opportunities are discussed for how scenarios can support strengthened consistency and policy relevance in the next IPCC assessment cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technology progress and clean vehicle policies on fleet turnover and equity: insights from household vehicle fleet micro-simulations with $\text{ATLAS}$

This paper documents the design and application of ATLAS (Automobile and Technology Lifecycle-Based ASsignment), a comprehensive household vehicle transaction and technology adoption micro-simulator in the San Francisco Bay Area. ATLAS evolves the fleet mix of individual households by simulating the vehicle transaction and choice decisions in response to co-evolving demographics, land use, and vehicle technology simulations. While most existing literature has focused on the aggregate clean vehicle uptake, this paper differentiates distributional effects and decomposes the underlying mechanisms across heterogeneous sub-populations of households. Using scenarios and sensitivity simulations that vary vehicle technology and policy assumptions, we find that Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) penetrate into higher income groups at a faster rate than into lower income groups, which is intuitive and aligns with expectations. Interestingly, the relative income disparity in ZEV ownership shrinks over time across all scenarios, with a ZEV mandate coupled with declining battery cost leading to the greatest reduction in disparity of ZEV ownership by 2050. Federal, state, and local financial incentives influence the redistribution of ZEV uptake across income groups and contribute to narrowing income disparity. Vehicle transaction frequency and new versus used market dynamics are found to be important factors contributing to the income disparity.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Transforming biorefinery designs with ‘Plug-In Processes of Lignin’ to enable economic waste valorization

Biological lignin valorization has emerged as a major solution for sustainable and cost-effective biorefineries. However, current biorefineries yield lignin with inadequate fractionation for bioconversion, yet substantial changes of these biorefinery designs to focus on lignin could jeopardize carbohydrate efficiency and increase capital costs. We resolve the dilemma by designing ‘plug-in processes of lignin’ with the integration of leading pretreatment technologies. Substantial improvement of lignin bioconversion and synergistic enhancement of carbohydrate processing are achieved by solubilizing lignin via lowering molecular weight and increasing hydrophilic groups, addressing the dilemma of lignin- or carbohydrate-first scenarios. The plug-in processes of lignin could enable minimum polyhydroxyalkanoate selling price at as low as $6.18/kg. The results highlight the potential to achieve commercial production of polyhydroxyalkanoates as a co-product of cellulosic ethanol. Here, we show that the plug-in processes of lignin could transform biorefinery design toward sustainability by promoting carbon efficiency and optimizing the total capital cost.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Kaon physics without new physics in $$ \varepsilon _K$$

Abstract Despite the observation of significant suppressions of $$b\rightarrow s\mu ^+\mu ^-$$ b → s μ + μ - branching ratios no clear sign of New Physics (NP) has been identified in $$\Delta F=2$$ Δ F = 2 observables $$\Delta M_{d,s}$$ Δ M d , s , $$\varepsilon _K$$ ε K and the mixing induced CP asymmetries $$S_{\psi K_S}$$ S ψ K S and $$S_{\psi \phi }$$ S ψ ϕ . Assuming negligible NP contributions to these observables allows to determine CKM parameters without being involved in the tensions between inclusive and exclusive determinations of $$|V_{cb}|$$ | V cb | and $$|V_{ub}|$$ | V ub | . Furthermore this method avoids the impact of NP on the determination of these parameters present likely in global fits. Simultaneously it provides SM predictions for numerous rare K and B branching ratios that are most accurate to date. Analyzing this scenario within $$Z^\prime $$ Z ′ models we point out, following the 2009 observations of Monika Blanke and ours of 2020, that despite the absence of NP contributions to $$\varepsilon _K$$ ε K , significant NP contributions to $$K^+\rightarrow \pi ^+\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K + → π + ν ν ¯ , $$K_{L}\rightarrow \pi ^0\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K L → π 0 ν ν ¯ , $$K_S\rightarrow \mu ^+\mu ^-$$ K S → μ + μ - , $$K_L\rightarrow \pi ^0\ell ^+\ell ^-$$ K L → π 0 ℓ + ℓ - , $$\varepsilon '/\varepsilon $$ ε ′ / ε and $$\Delta M_K$$ Δ M K can be present. In the simplest scenario, this is guaranteed, as far as flavour changes are concerned, by a single non-vanishing imaginary left-handed $$Z^\prime $$ Z ′ coupling $$g^L_{sd}$$ g sd L . This scenario implies very stringent correlations between the Kaon observables considered by us. In particular, the identification of NP in any of these observables implies automatically NP contributions to the remaining ones under the assumption of non-vanishing flavour conserving $$Z^\prime $$ Z ′ couplings to $$q{\bar{q}}$$ q q ¯ , $$\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ ν ν ¯ , and $$\mu ^+\mu ^-$$ μ + μ - . A characteristic feature of this scenario is a strict correlation between $$K^+\rightarrow \pi ^+\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K + → π + ν ν ¯ and $$K_{L}\rightarrow \pi ^0\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K L → π 0 ν ν ¯ branching ratios on a branch parallel to the Grossman-Nir bound. Moreover, $$\Delta M_K$$ Δ M K is automatically suppressed as seems to be required by the results of the RBC-UKQCD lattice QCD collaboration. Furthermore, there is no NP contribution to $$K_L\rightarrow \mu ^+\mu ^-$$ K L → μ + μ - which otherwise would bound NP effects in $$K^+\rightarrow \pi ^+\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K + → π + ν ν ¯ . Of particular interest are the correlations of $$K^+\rightarrow \pi ^+\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K + → π + ν ν ¯ and $$K_{L}\rightarrow \pi ^0\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K L → π 0 ν ν ¯ branching ratios and of $$\Delta M_K$$ Δ M K with the ratio $$\varepsilon '/\varepsilon $$ ε ′ / ε . We investigate the impact of renormalization group effects in the context of the SMEFT on this simple scenario.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Same Data, Different Audiences: Using Personas to Scope a Supercomputing Job Queue Visualization

Domain-specific visualizations sometimes focus on narrow, albeit important, tasks for one group of users. This focus limits the utility of a visualization to other groups working with the same data. While tasks elicited from other groups can present a design pitfall if not disambiguated, they also present a design opportunity—namely, the development of visualizations that support multiple groups. This development choice presents a trade-off of broadening the scope but limiting support for the more narrow tasks of any one group, which in some cases can enhance the overall utility of the visualization. We investigate this scenario through a design study where we develop Guidepost, a notebook-embedded visualization of data that helps scientists assess compute wait times, machine learning researchers understand prediction accuracy, and system maintainers analyze usage trends. We adapt the use of personas for visualization design from existing literature in the HCI and design domains, applying them to categorize tasks based on their uniqueness across stakeholder personas. Under this model, tasks shared between all groups should be supported by interactive visualizations and tasks unique to each group can be deferred to scripting with notebook-embedded visualization design. We evaluate our visualization through real-world case studies and a task-focused evaluation with nine participants. We observe that together, Guidepost's visual encodings, interactions, and export capabilities support the tasks of our differing personas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

TRISO SiC Failure Probability for Reactivity Initiated Accidents in High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors

This work analyzes the failure process of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) during reactivity-initiated accident scenarios for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) with BISON. Two cases are considered—a group control rod withdrawal (CRW) and a control rod ejection (CRE)—reproduced from a previous study. Failure probability is modeled using Weibull statistics, and worst-case scenario Weibull parameters are adopted to simulate the envelopes in BISON with a one-dimensional TRISO model. CRW scenario results are characterized by higher values of maximum energy deposition and final temperature and volumetric strain with respect to the CRE ones, but the latter have remarkably higher SiC failure probability, mainly due to the offset in strain rates between the two cases. This work also confirms the validity and conservatism of the performance envelopes produced in a previous work by replicating the envelope formulation using RELAP5-3D and RAVEN with a different sampling technique and obtaining consistent results. A sensitivity analysis using the Sobol variance decomposition method on SiC failure probability is then performed involving a set of inputs on both CRW and CRE. The two most important parameters are Weibull modulus and characteristic stress, and their relative importance depends on the specific case. The proposed interpretation of the results is that both energy deposition and strain rate influence the relative degree of importance of the failure parameters. Computation of 95% confidence intervals around worst-case scenario SiC failure probability values is also carried out for four different sets of Weibull parameters. Heren a new criterion for SiC TRISO quality classification built upon safety-based ranges of Weibull parameters is proposed to be integrated in future Fuel-Production Quality Assurance Plans.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Characterizing manufacturing sector disruptions with targeted mitigation strategies

It has become clear in recent decades that manufacturing supply chains are increasingly vulnerable to disruptions of varying geographical scales and intensities. These disruptions—whether intentional, accidental, or resulting from natural disasters—cause failures and capacity reductions to manufacturing infrastructure, with lasting effects that can cascade throughout the manufacturing network. An overall lack of understanding of solutions to mitigate disturbances has rendered the challenge of reducing manufacturing supply chain vulnerability even more difficult. Additionally, the variability of disruptions and their impacts complicates policy maker and stakeholder efforts to plan for specific disruptive scenarios. It is necessary to comprehend different kinds of disturbances and group them based on stakeholder-provided metrics to support planning processes and modeling efforts that promote adaptable, resilient manufacturing supply chains. This paper reviews existing methods for risk management in manufacturing supply chains and the economic and environmental impacts of disruptions. In addition, we develop a framework using agglomerative hierarchical clustering to classify disruptions using U.S. manufacturing network data between 2000 and 2021 and characteristic metrics defined in the literature. Our review identifies five groups of disruptions and discusses both general mitigation methods and strategies targeting each identified group. Further, we highlight gaps in the literature related to estimating and including environmental costs in disaster preparedness and mitigation planning. We also discuss the lack of easily available metrics to quantify environmental impacts of disruptions and how such metrics could be included into our methodology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

EMF Biomass Data Interpreter [SWR-23-06]

EMF Biomass Data Interpreter was developed for the transportation team of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37: Deep Decarbonization and High Electrification Scenarios for North America project. It parses results from different modeling groups to show how biomass might be employed under electrification.

Wachs, Elizabeth↗

Advancing Solar Innovation for Low and Moderate-Income Households (Final Technical Report)

The overarching goal of this project was to deepen the understanding of the social and economic aspects of solar adoption, with a specific eye towards any pathways or barriers that could be identified that directly impact low and moderate-income households. Specific objectives included (1) identifying and assessing significant non-economic barriers that complicate the ability of LMI households to adopt and benefit from solar, even under scenarios with low economic barriers; (2) assessing the differential ability of groups to benefit from solar adoption based on their ability to invest in different solar innovations; (3) explaining why some LMI communities nonetheless experience significantly higher rates of solar adoption and benefit than others; (4) developing a methodological model for generating data addressing key issues to the project; and (5) designing and developing an interactive web portal that aggregates existing datasets, provides researchers trend analysis capabilities, standardizes project protocols for other states and communities; provides the opportunities for researchers using the same protocol in other communities to upload their results; and engages with the general public by providing them the ability to upload their own perspectives and stories of solar technology adoption. Through a common framework for conducting semi-structured field interviews. In partnership with cooperative extension services, in conjunction with survey research and the aggregation of existing solar adoption datasets, this study has identified that currently ,there is a strong values alignment and knowledge access challenge that continues to affect solar adoption. Participants in this study – many of whom are either low or moderate-income and/or live in underserved rural communities do not believe solar is an option where they live or believe solar is appropriate for their lifestyle. This perception challenge is further exacerbated by the absolute dearth of adopters in most communities and a total lack of local marketing for solar energy. What marketing that does exist is geared towards audiences other than those in the participant's community, reinforcing a perception that 22% of survey respondents (n = 1,551) have: that solar energy is not meant for them and their community. Overcoming these serious human challenges pertaining to knowledge and marketing are critical to reducing the customer acquisition costs incurred amongst LMI communities and especially those in rural America where the opportunities solar provides to increase local energy resilience, security, all while engaging in personal stewardship of the planet could align with local values. Community-Based Social Marketing, built in partnership with community leaders and geared towards meeting local visions of ideal life, is a near term opportunity to bridge the gap between local priorities and national market and policy imperatives for solar while moving towards the administration's goals for renewable energy as part of a just and equitable decarbonization program. The tools and methods developed for this study can serve as a template for identifying other specific local challenges for solar adoption in other state, and provide the opportunity for a common data framework for understanding system-wide trends and barriers to achieving uptake of residential solar in communities that may, ultimately, benefit the most from the technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Carbon management technology pathways for reaching a U.S. Economy-Wide net-Zero emissions goal

The Carbon Management Study Group of the 37 th Energy Modeling Forum (EMF 37) designed seven scenarios to explore the role of three potentially key technology suites – point source carbon dioxide capture and storage (PSCCS), direct air capture of carbon dioxide (DACCS), and hydrogen systems (H 2 ) – in shaping the broader technology pathways to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in United States by 2050. Each scenario was run by up to 13 models participating in the EMF 37 study. Results show that carbon dioxide removal technologies were consistently a major part of successful pathways to net-zero U.S. CO 2 emissions in 2050. Achieving this net-zero CO 2 goal without any form of carbon dioxide capture and storage was found to be impossible for most models; some models also found it impossible to reach net-zero without DACCS. The marginal cost of achieving net-zero CO 2 emissions in 2050 was between two and 10 times higher without PSCCS and/or DACCS available. The carbon price at which DACCS was deployed as a backstop technology depended upon the assumed cost at which DACCS was available at scale. Carbon prices were between $\$$250 and $\$$500 per ton CO 2 when DACCS deployed as a backstop. The average CO 2 capture rate across all models in 2050 in the central net-zero scenario was 1.3 GtCO 2 /year, which implies a substantial upscaling of capacity to move and store CO 2 . Finally, hydrogen sensitivity scenarios showed that H 2 typically constituted a relatively small share of the overall U.S. energy system; however, H 2 deployed in applications that are considered hard to decarbonize, facilitating transition towards net-zero emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Minimal realizations of Dirac neutrino mass from generic one-loop and two-loop topologies at d =5

We carry out a systematic investigation for the minimal Dirac neutrino mass models emerging from generic one-loop and two-loop topologies that arise from d = 5 effective operator with a singlet scalar, σ. To ensure that the tree-level Dirac mass, as well as Majorana mass terms at all orders, are absent for the neutrinos, we work in the framework where the Standard Model is supplemented by the well-motivated U(1)B-L gauge symmetry. At the one-loop level, we analyze six possible topologies, out of which two of them have the potential to generate desired Dirac neutrino mass. Adopting a systematic approach to select minimal models, we construct seventeen viable one-loop Dirac neutrino mass models. By embracing a similar methodical approach at the two-loop, we work out twenty-three minimal candidates. Among the forty selected economical models, the majority of the models proposed in this work are new. In our search, we also include the scenarios where the particles in the loop carry charges under the color group. Furthermore, we discuss the possible dark matter candidates within a given model, if any, without extending the minimal particle content.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Did we hear the sound of the Universe boiling? Analysis using the full fluid velocity profiles and NANOGrav 15-year data

Abstract In this paper, we analyse sound waves arising from a cosmic phase transition where the full velocity profile is taken into account as an explanation for the gravitational wave spectrum observed by multiple pulsar timing array groups. Unlike the broken power law used in the literature, in this scenario the power law after the peak depends on the macroscopic properties of the phase transition, allowing for a better fit with pulsar timing array (PTA) data. We compare the best fit with that obtained using the usual broken power law and, unsurprisingly, find a better fit with the gravitational wave (GW) spectrum that utilizes the full velocity profile. Even more importantly, the thermal parameters that produce the best fit are quite different. We then discuss models that can produce the best-fit point and complementary probes using CMB experiments and searches for light particles in DUNE, IceCUBE-Gen2, neutrinoless doubleβ-decay, and forward physics facilities (FPF) at the LHC like FASERν, etc.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Application of DLT cybersecurity stack to TES applications for a scalable, cybersecure, and interoperable future

Transactive Energy Systems (TES) are expected to improve upon existing grid operations and capabilities by enabling the integration of traditional grid resources with distributed energy resources (DER). Distributed Ledger Technology or DLT (e.g., blockchain) presents itself as a viable instrument to support decentralized, autonomous, and tamper-evident applications, which can be leveraged within TES's ecosystem. DLTs can provide pertinent security controls including access controls, data immutability, and traceability in addition to other well-known advantages such as decentralization and scalability. This work demonstrates the DLT Cybersecurity stack and its applicability to TES-based use-cases/applications. The seven-layer DLT cybersecurity stack is a DLT-agnostic framework that can quickly be used to classify and group the individual needs of an application into the different processing and cybersecurity layers offered by a DLT using a common taxonomy and an architectural mapping framework. This enables application engineers to demystify and strengthen the overall security aspects of their systems while maintaining an open perspective towards features and drawbacks that may hinder their performance in real-world scenarios. The paper leverages the work performed by the IEEE P2418.5 - Blockchain for Energy Standards working group.

Blockchain, blockchain interoperability, Cybersecu↗