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DOE OSTI2023

Salt International Collaborations FY23 Update

This report summarizes the international collaborations conducted by Sandia funded by the US Department of Energy Office (DOE) of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Spent Fuel and Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) as part of the Sandia National Laboratories Salt R&D and Salt International work packages. This report satisfies the level-three milestone M3SF-23SN010303062. Several stand-alone sections make up this summary report, each completed by the participants. The sections discuss granular salt reconsolidation (KOMPASS), engineered barriers (RANGERS), numerical model comparison (DECOVALEX) and an NEA Salt Club working group on the development of scenarios as part of the performance assessment development process. Finally, we summarize events related to the US/German Workshop on Repository Research, Design and Operations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scout Benchmark Scenarios for U.S. Building Energy and CO2 Emissions to 2050

Overview and Intended Use Cases: These scenarios establish a range of futures for U.S. buildings sector energy use and CO2 emissions to 2050 using Scout (scout.energy.gov), a reproducible and granular model of U.S. building energy use, emissions, and consumer costs developed by the U.S. national labs for the U.S. Department of Energy's Building Technologies Office (BTO). Scout benchmark scenario data are suitable for the following example use cases: setting high-level policy goals for the U.S. buildings sector to 2050 (e.g., X% building CO2 emissions reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2030, Y% reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2050); exploring the effects of key dynamics driving U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions to 2050 that could be affected by policy levers (e.g., raising minimum technology performance levels; accelerating electrification and/or retrofit rates; introducing breakthrough technologies to the market); determining priority segments (regions, building types, and end use/technology types) and sequencing of U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions reductions to 2050 under a given set of assumptions; and/or identifying the energy and emissions impacts or cost effectiveness of specific technologies or operational approaches of interest—in isolation or after considering competition with other measures in a scenario portfolio. Scenario Summary: A total of 8 scenarios explore the effects of changes across both the demand- and supply-side of building energy use on annual U.S. building energy use and CO2 emissions from 2022–2050. Scenarios are organized into three groups representing low, moderate, and best-case potentials for building decarbonization, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2002

Creating a Team Archive During Fast-Paced Anomaly Response Activities in Space Missions

This paper describes a Web-based system to support the temporary Anomaly Response Team formed from distributed subteams in Space Shuttle and International Space Station missions. The system was designed for easy and flexible creation of small collections of files and links associated with work on a particular anomaly. The system supports privacy and levels of formality for the subteams. First we describe the supported groups and an anomaly response scenario. Then we describe the support system prototype, the Anomaly Response Tracking and Integration System (ARTIS). Finally, we describe our evaluation approach and the results of the evaluation.

Malin, Jane T.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Putting Integrated Systems Health Management Capabilities to Work: Development of an Advanced Caution and Warning System for Next-Generation Crewed Spacecraft Missions

Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) technologies have advanced to the point where they can provide significant automated assistance with real-time fault detection, diagnosis, guided troubleshooting, and failure consequence assessment. To exploit these capabilities in actual operational environments, however, ISHM information must be integrated into operational concepts and associated information displays in ways that enable human operators to process and understand the ISHM system information rapidly and effectively. In this paper, we explore these design issues in the context of an advanced caution and warning system (ACAWS) for next-generation crewed spacecraft missions. User interface concepts for depicting failure diagnoses, failure effects, redundancy loss, "what-if" failure analysis scenarios, and resolution of ambiguity groups are discussed and illustrated.

integrated system management↗

NASA NTRS2011

Operations Concept for a Solar System Internetwork

Space communications to date has been largely managed at the link layer, with simple point-to-point links between a spacecraft at Earth. However, future space exploration scenarios involve much richer communications scenarios, with complex network scenarios involving space assets communicating back to Earth via multiple intermediate relay service providers. To support these more complex network scenarios, the Space Internetworking Strategy Group has developed an operations concept for a Solar System Internetwork (SSI). The operations concept draws on the successes of the terrestrial Internet while addressing unique aspects of space communications. Key elements of the operations concept include a standardized network layer across the end-to-end SSI and the underlying processes for development of a contact plan that captures the link layer connectivity among SSI network nodes.

Edwards, Charles D., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Flight Test Evaluation of an Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management (UTM) Concept for Multiple Beyond-Visual-Line-of-Sight Operations

This study evaluates a traffic management concept designed to enable simultaneous operations of multiple small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in the national airspace system (NAS). A five-day flight-test activity is described that examined the feasibility of operating multiple UAS beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) of their respective operators in the same airspace. Over the five-day campaign, three groups of five flight crews operated a total of eleven different aircraft. Each group participated in four flight scenarios involving five simultaneous missions. Each vehicle was operated BVLOS up to 1.5 miles from the pilot in command. Findings and recommendations are presented to support the feasibility and safety of routine BVLOS operations for small UAS.

UTM↗

NASA NTRS2017

Flight Test Evaluation of an Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management (UTM) Concept for Multiple Beyond-Visual-Line-of-Sight (BVLOS) Operations

UA↗

DOE OSTI2023

Axion dark matter from frictional misalignment

We study the impact of sphaleron-induced thermal friction on the axion dark-matter abundance due to the interaction of an axion-like particle (ALP) with a dark non-abelian gauge sector in a secluded thermal bath. Thermal friction can either enhance the axion relic density by delaying the onset of oscillations or suppress it by damping them. We derive an analytical formula for the frictional adiabatic invariant, which remains constant along the axion evolution and which allows us to compute the axion relic density in a general set-up. Even in the most minimal scenario, in which a single gauge group is responsible for both the generation of the ALP mass and the friction force, we find that the resulting dark-matter abundance from the misalignment mechanism deviates from the standard scenario for axion masses m a ≳ 100 eV. We also generalize our analysis to the case where the gauge field that induces friction and the gauge sector responsible for the ALP mass are distinct and their couplings to the axion have a large hierarchy as can be justified by means of alignment or clockwork scenarios. We find that it is easy to open up the ALP parameter space where the resulting axion abundance matches the observed dark-matter relic density both in the traditionally over- and underabundant regimes. This conclusion also holds for the QCD axion.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

When to vaccinate for seasonal influenza: check the peak forecast

Background Seasonal influenza infects 5-20% of people every year in the United States, resulting in hospitalizations, deaths, and adverse economic impacts. To mitigate these impacts, influenza vaccines are developed and distributed annually; however, growing evidence suggests that vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the course of a flu season. Delaying influenza vaccination for older adults has attracted attention as a potential public health strategy. However, given the uncertainties in seasonal peak, vaccine effectiveness, and waning rates, postponing vaccination could also lead to increased morbidity, motivating an evaluation of a range of potential scenarios. The aim of this study was to investigate favorable age group-specific vaccination schedules that could lead to the greatest disease burden reduction. Methods We systematically investigated a broad range of vaccination start times for five age groups under six combinations of initial effectiveness and waning rates, based on influenza cases and vaccine uptake data from 10 influenza seasons. We defined the most favorable vaccination schedule as the one that resulted in the greatest reduction in disease burden. Results In scenarios with fast waning, all age groups benefit from delaying vaccination regardless of initial VE and peak timing. In scenarios with slower waning, results are mixed. For the ≥65 group, high initial VE and slow waning suggests that in early-peaking seasons, early vaccination most effectively reduces disease burden, while in late-peaking seasons delaying vaccination is most effective. For the ≥65 group in medium and low initial VE, and slow waning scenarios, delaying vaccination appears to prevent the greatest number of cases, regardless of whether the season peaks early or late. Conclusion The most favorable vaccination schedule is sensitive to changes in initial VE, waning rate, and peak timing. Given estimates of these quantities from statistical and immunological models and observations, our methods can inform vaccination recommendations in order to most effectively reduce the annual disease burden caused by seasonal influenza. Specifically, accurate peak timing forecasts for the upcoming season have the potential to guide decisions on when to vaccinate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1981

Group 2: Real time LOFT operations

All LOFT scenarios should be constructed so as to provide the highest degree of realism that is economically, technically, and operationally feasible. The more realistic the situation, the faster the crew will adjust their thinking and provide reactions which would be typical of a line-flight orientation. The goal is to produce crew performance which would be typical of a crew on an actual line flight, given the same set of circumstances that were developed during the scenario. The briefing which is provided to the crew before entering the simulator for LOFT, the trip papers, the communications throughout the flight, the role played by the instructor, and so on, are important factors, crucial to the establishment and maintenance of a high degree of realism. Crews should have all manuals and other required equipment for a normal line-flight.

Cavanagh, D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long-term decarbonization impacts on residential energy security across income groups and US states

Abstract The impact of a transition to a net-zero economy on the residential energy sector across diverse income groups in the US remains uncertain. Here, we employ an integrated human-Earth system model, incorporating an expanded set of ten income groups in the residential energy sector, to examine the distributional impacts of long-term decarbonization scenarios on residential energy security at the state level through 2050. We use multiple metrics of energy security, including energy burden, energy satiation gap, and the distribution of energy service across income groups. Our findings show that the net-zero decarbonization scenarios affect residential energy security differently across income groups, with low-to-mid-income groups experiencing larger negative impacts on the dimensions studied here. Comparatively, climate change impact on residential energy security is minor through 2050 based on our model outcomes. Specifically, the net-zero decarbonization scenarios lead to increased energy burden across all income groups and states in 2050, where the lowest (highest) income group in each state shows an average of 0.6 (0.2) percentage point increase in energy burden, relative to the business-as-usual in 2050. The distribution of energy service consumption across income groups is also slightly more skewed under these scenarios. As incomes grow across all deciles in the future, residential energy security generally improves through 2050. Targeted interventions could mitigate the disproportionate impacts that some groups could incur under a transition to a net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1983

Solar Terrestrial Observatory for future space station program

The Solar Terrestrial Observatory (STO) Science Study Group was established in 1979 to formulate a scientific strategy for the development of a Solar Terrestrial Observatory as an interdependent problem-oriented combination of solar, magnetospheric, and atmospheric instruments. In the scenario formed by the STO Science Study Group, the STO would be mounted on a long-lived Space Platform, carried into orbit, and serviced by the Space Shuttle. The proposed strategy focused on investigations of the physical processes that interlink the major regions of solar-terrestrial space. In reviewing that strategy, one quickly concludes that the STO objectives can be met, and in many ways enhanced, by using a Shuttle-serviced manned Space Station. This conclusion is reinforced by the results of earlier workshops devoted to manned Space Stations.

Roberts, W. T.↗

DOE OSTI2022

An agent-based modeling tool supporting bioenergy and bio-product community communication regarding cellulosic bioeconomy development

The emergence of the cellulosic bioeconomy requires not only adequate technological, economic, and policy advances, but also effective communication and coordination among the multiple stakeholders in the bioeconomy community. Aiming to facilitate stakeholder communication and collaboration for cellulosic bioeconomy growth, an agent-based model is developed as a community communication tool in this study. The tool simulates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, as well as the responses and interactions between the stakeholders and biophysical, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. The agent behavior rules are developed and validated based on behavior and economic theories and information attained from a stakeholder focus group study and a land use survey. A pilot study in a Central Illinois watershed shows stakeholder synergies, i.e., positive feedback loops across multiple stakeholders. The modeling tool's role in facilitating community communication is demonstrated via the focus group study. A comparison of policy scenarios suggests that the cellulosic bioeconomy development is fastest under a portfolio of policies combining the views of the multiple stakeholders. Critically, subsidy for small-scale bio-facilities is essential as it rapidly initializes an early market for cellulosic feedstocks and the adoption of Miscanthus. As a result, the communication tool is applied to bringing stakeholders and researchers together to develop shared visions, assess barriers, and explore solution portfolios to initialize and speed up the regional cellulosic bioeconomy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The cosmic DANCe of Perseus

Context. Star-forming regions are excellent benchmarks for testing and validating theories of star formation and stellar evolution. The Perseus star-forming region, being one of the youngest (< 10 Myr), closest (280-320 pc), and most studied in the literature, is a fundamental benchmark. Aims. We aim to study the membership, phase-space structure, mass, and energy (kinetic plus potential) distribution of the Perseus star-forming region using public catalogues (Gaia, APOGEE, 2MASS, and Pan-STARRS). Methods. We used Bayesian methodologies that account for extinction to identify the Perseus physical groups in the phase-space, retrieve their candidate members, derive their properties (age, mass, 3D positions, 3D velocities, and energy), and attempt to reconstruct their origin. Results. We identify 1052 candidate members in seven physical groups (one of them new) with ages between 3 and 10 Myr, dynamical super-virial states, and large fractions of energetically unbounded stars. Their mass distributions are broadly compatible with that of Chabrier for masses ≳0.1 M ⊙ and do not show hints of over-abundance of low-mass stars in NGC 1333 with respect to IC 348. These groups’ ages, spatial structure, and kinematics are compatible with at least three generations of stars. Future work is still needed to clarify if the formation of the youngest was triggered by the oldest. Conclusions. The exquisite Gaia data complemented with public archives and mined with comprehensive Bayesian methodologies allow us to identify 31% more members than previous studies, discover a new physical group (Gorgophone: 7 Myr, 191 members, and 145 M ⊙ ), and confirm that the spatial, kinematic, and energy distributions of these groups support the hierarchical star formation scenario.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Anyon superconductivity from topological criticality in a Hofstadter–Hubbard model

We argue that the combination of strong repulsive interactions and high magnetic fields can generate electron pairing and superconductivity. Inspired by the large lattice constants of moiré materials, which make large flux per unit cell accessible at laboratory fields, we study the triangular lattice Hofstadter-Hubbard model at one-quarter flux quantum per plaquette, where previous literature has argued that a chiral spin liquid separates a weak-coupling integer quantum Hall phase and a strong-coupling topologically trivial antiferromagnetic insulator at a density of one electron per site. We argue that topological superconductivity emerges upon doping in the vicinity of the integer quantum Hall to chiral spin liquid transition. We employ exact diagonalization and density matrix renormalization group methods to examine this theoretical scenario and find that electronic pairing indeed occurs on both sides of criticality over a remarkably broad range of interaction strengths. On the chiral spin liquid side, our results provide a concrete model realization of the long-hypothesized mechanism of anyon superconductivity. Our study thus establishes a beyond-Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer route to electron pairing in a well-controlled limit, relying crucially on the interplay between electron correlations and band topology.

Hubbard model↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating full-waveform inversion using source stacking: synthetic experiments at the global scale in a realistic 3-D earth model

SUMMARY The spectral element method is currently the method of choice for computing accurate synthetic seismic wavefields in realistic 3-D earth models at the global scale. However, it requires significantly more computational time, compared to normal mode-based approximate methods. Source stacking, whereby multiple earthquake sources are aligned on their origin time and simultaneously triggered, can reduce the computational costs by several orders of magnitude. We present the results of synthetic tests performed on a realistic radially anisotropic 3-D model, slightly modified from model SEMUCB-WM1 with three component synthetic waveform ‘data’ for a duration of 10 000 s, and filtered at periods longer than 60 s, for a set of 273 events and 515 stations. We consider two definitions of the misfit function, one based on the stacked records at individual stations and another based on station-pair cross-correlations of the stacked records. The inverse step is performed using a Gauss–Newton approach where the gradient and Hessian are computed using normal mode perturbation theory. We investigate the retrieval of radially anisotropic long wavelength structure in the upper mantle in the depth range 100–800 km, after fixing the crust and uppermost mantle structure constrained by fundamental mode Love and Rayleigh wave dispersion data. The results show good performance using both definitions of the misfit function, even in the presence of realistic noise, with degraded amplitudes of lateral variations in the anisotropic parameter ξ. Interestingly, we show that we can retrieve the long wavelength structure in the upper mantle, when considering one or the other of three portions of the cross-correlation time series, corresponding to where we expect the energy from surface wave overtone, fundamental mode or a mixture of the two to be dominant, respectively. We also considered the issue of missing data, by randomly removing a successively larger proportion of the available synthetic data. We replace the missing data by synthetics computed in the current 3-D model using normal mode perturbation theory. The inversion results degrade with the proportion of missing data, especially for ξ, and we find that a data availability of 45 per cent or more leads to acceptable results. We also present a strategy for grouping events and stations to minimize the number of missing data in each group. This leads to an increased number of computations but can be significantly more efficient than conventional single-event-at-a-time inversion. We apply the grouping strategy to a real picking scenario, and show promising resolution capability despite the use of fewer waveforms and uneven ray path distribution. Source stacking approach can be used to rapidly obtain a starting 3-D model for more conventional full-waveform inversion at higher resolution, and to investigate assumptions made in the inversion, such as trade-offs between isotropic, anisotropic or anelastic structure, different model parametrizations or how crustal structure is accounted for.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Systems Engineering Approach to Accident Response Planning

This paper explores the Systems Engineering structure, strategies and tools for real world scenarios involving work with accident response groups. A systems engineering approach must be taken by the technical teams to prepare for a successful response and design the technical systems in support of the operations. The scope of this project is focused on laying out the foundation of the systems engineering approach taken to help the teams develop an accident response strategy and identify new engineering designs in support of these operations for the black box systems. This Master’s project involves several interdisciplinary teams & stakeholders across different areas. Identifying the proper tools to use is key to addressing the big picture needs of the multiple stakeholders. This project explores some of the key tools used by the integrated team. The integrated project work will primarily take place over the course of 8 weeks via integrated team meetings. Other work in support of this project will take place off-line as needed by the project lead. Details on the prospective timeline, milestones, key dates and work scope can be referenced in other sections of this paper. Key systems engineering methodologies and tools used thus far in support of this project includes: 1) Market Surveys and Interviews, 2) Project Charter, 3) Feasibility Study, 4) Swim Lane Diagram, and 5) Knowledge Management Plan.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2010

Two Types of Magnetic Flux Cancellation in the Solar Eruption of 2007 May 20

We study a solar eruption of 2007 May 20, in an effort to understand the cause of the eruption's onset. The event produced a GOES class B6.7 flare peaking at 05:56 UT, while ejecting a surge/filament and producing a coronal mass ejection (CME). We examine several data sets, including H-alpha images from the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) on Hinode, EUV images from TRACE, and line-of-sight magnetograms from SOHO/MDI. Flux cancelation occurs among two different sets of flux elements inside of the erupting active region: First, for several days prior to eruption, opposite-polarity sunspot groups inside the region move toward each other, leading to the cancelation of approximately 10^{21} Mx of flux over three days. Second, within hours prior to the eruption, positive-polarity moving magnetic features (MMFs) flowing out of the positive-flux spots at approximately 1 kilometer per second repeatedly cancel with field inside a patch of negative-polarity flux located north of the sunspots. The filament erupts as a surge whose base is rooted in the location where the MMF cancelation occurs, while during the eruption that filament flows out along the polarity inversion line between the converging spot groups. We conclude that a plausible scenario is that the converging spot fields brought the magnetic region to the brink of instability, and the MMF cancelation pushed the system "over the edge." triggering the eruption.

Sterlin, Alphonse C.↗