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At least 55 records · Page 3

Towards an open model intercomparison platform for integrated assessment models scenarios

The majority of scenarios in the IPCC database are generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and come from model intercomparison projects. However, the way in which the current model intercomparison projects are organized is not open to all IAM teams worldwide. Here we propose a transparent and inclusive platform that is open to anyone with an IAM regarding protocols development, scenario submissions and results evaluation. We discuss the challenges of this approach, particularly human resources and financial support. Here, we identify diversity in the level of model capability and quality of model output as possibly critical issues. Despite such challenges, the IAM community and its scientific activities can improve and benefit from the proposed platform, ultimately contributing to better climate policymaking.

IAM

Study of selected tether applications in space, phase 3, volume 2

The results of a Phase 3 study of two Selected Tether Applications in Space (STAIS); deorbit of a Shuttle and launch of an Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV), both from the space station using a tether were examined. The study objectives were to: perform a preliminary engineering design, define operational scenarios, develop a common cost model, perform cost benefits analyses, and develop a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Key features of the performance analysis were to identify the net increases in effective Shuttle cargo capability if tethers are used to assist in the deorbit of Shuttles and the launching of the OTVs from the space station and to define deployer system designs required to accomplish these tasks. Deployer concepts were designed and discussed. Operational scenarios, including timelines, for both tethered and nontethered Shuttle and OTV operations at the space station were evaluated. A summary discussion of the Selected Tether Applications Cost Model (STACOM) and the results of the cost benefits analysis are presented. Several critical technologies needed to implement tether assisted deployment of payloads are also discussed. Conclusions and recommendations are presented.

Source record

Electric propulsion for lunar exploration and lunar base development

Using electric propulsion to deliver materials to lunar orbit for the development and construction of a lunar base was investigated. Because the mass of the base and its life-cycle resupply mass are large, high specific impulse propulsion systems may significantly reduce the transportation system mass and cost. Three electric propulsion technologies (arcjet, ion, and magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) propulsion) were compared with oxygen/hydrogen propulsion for a lunar base development scenario. Detailed estimates of the orbital transfer vehicles' (OTV's) masses and their propellant masses are presented. The fleet sizes for the chemical and electric propulsion systems are estimated. Ion and MPD propulsion systems enable significant launch mass savings over O2/H2 propulsion. Because of the longer trip time required for the low-thrust OTV's, more of them are required to perform the mission model. By offloading the lunar cargo from the manned O2/H2 OTV missions onto the electric propulsion OTV's, a significant reduction of the low Earth orbit (LEO) launch mass is possible over the 19-year base development period.

Palaszewski, Bryan

The evolution of the geostationary platform concept

The paper will review the conceptual development over the last decade of the use of very large spacecraft, i.e., 'platforms', in geostationary orbit. Geostationary platforms were originally conceived as an efficient means of increasing the capacity at a point in the geostationary orbital arc. Also, geostationary platforms have been suggested for mounting very large antennas as will be required for mobile communications, or high power sources as will be required for broadcast services to small terminals. More recently these 'large satellite' platforms were also envisioned as including earth observation and other science payloads. The advent of the Space Station, which can provide a staging base for platform assembly and test in space at low earth orbit prior to launch to geostationary earth orbit, will introduce a new dimension to practical platform design. This paper describes the evolution of concepts for geostationary platforms over the last decade based on both communications and science user scenarios developed worldwide.

Edelson, Burton I.

Automation and robotics human performance

The scope of this report is limited to the following: (1) assessing the feasibility of the assumptions for crew productivity during the intra-vehicular activities and extra-vehicular activities; (2) estimating the appropriate level of automation and robotics to accomplish balanced man-machine, cost-effective operations in space; (3) identifying areas where conceptually different approaches to the use of people and machines can leverage the benefits of the scenarios; and (4) recommending modifications to scenarios or developing new scenarios that will improve the expected benefits. The FY89 special assessments are grouped into the five categories shown in the report. The high level system analyses for Automation & Robotics (A&R) and Human Performance (HP) were performed under the Case Studies Technology Assessment category, whereas the detailed analyses for the critical systems and high leverage development areas were performed under the appropriate operations categories (In-Space Vehicle Operations or Planetary Surface Operations). The analysis activities planned for the Science Operations technology areas were deferred to FY90 studies. The remaining activities such as analytic tool development, graphics/video demonstrations and intelligent communicating systems software architecture were performed under the Simulation & Validations category.

Mah, Robert W.

E3SM‐GCAM: A Synchronously Coupled Human Component in the E3SM Earth System Model Enables Novel Human‐Earth Feedback Research

Abstract Modeling human‐environment feedbacks is critical for assessing the effectiveness of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under a changing climate. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) now includes a human component, with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) at its core, that is synchronously coupled with the land and atmosphere components through the E3SM coupling software. Terrestrial productivity is passed from E3SM to GCAM to make climate‐responsive land use and CO 2 emission projections for the next 5‐year period, which are interpolated and passed to E3SM annually. Key variables affected by the incorporation of these feedbacks include land use/cover change, crop prices, terrestrial carbon, local surface temperature, and climate extremes. Regional differences are more pronounced than global differences because the effects are driven primarily by differences in land use. This novel system enables a new type of scenario development and provides a powerful modeling framework that facilitates the addition of other feedbacks between these models. This system has the potential to explore how human responses to climate change impacts in a variety of sectors, including heating/cooling energy demand, water management, and energy production, may alter emissions trajectories and Earth system changes. Plain Language Summary Earth system models help us understand how humans are changing the climate. Currently, these models do not include human systems, so predetermined greenhouse gas, aerosol, and land use change data are input to these models. These data do not reflect human responses to changes projected by Earth system models. We have added a human component to an Earth system model to represent human responses to environmental change and calculate corresponding greenhouse gas and land use change data instead of using predetermined data. Including this human component changes projections of land use, land carbon storage, and regional climate. Key Points We have incorporated a novel, advanceable human component in an Earth system model to simulate human‐Earth feedbacks Including terrestrial productivity feedbacks from the Earth to the human systems affects land change, crop prices, carbon, and climate Regional effects of including terrestrial productivity feedbacks are greater than global effects because land change is the main driver

E3SM

Latent space mapping: Revolutionizing predictive models for divertor plasma detachment control

The inherent complexity of boundary plasma, characterized by multi-scale and multi-physics challenges, has historically restricted high-fidelity simulations to scientific research due to their intensive computational demands. Consequently, routine applications such as discharge control and scenario development have relied on faster but less accurate empirical methods. This work introduces DivControlNN, a novel machine-learning-based surrogate model designed to address these limitations by enabling quasi-real-time predictions (i.e., ~ 0.2 ms) of boundary and divertor plasma behavior. Trained on over 70,000 2D UEDGE simulations from KSTAR tokamak equilibria, DivControlNN employs latent space mapping to efficiently represent complex divertor plasma states, achieving a computational speed-up of over 10 8 compared to traditional simulations while maintaining a relative error below 20% for key plasma property predictions. During the 2024 KSTAR experimental campaign, a prototype detachment control system powered by DivControlNN successfully demonstrated detachment control on its first attempt, even for a new tungsten divertor configuration and without any fine-tuning. These results highlight the transformative potential of DivControlNN in overcoming diagnostic challenges in future fusion reactors by providing fast, robust, and reliable predictions for advanced integrated control systems.

Artificial neural networks

A review of collaborative studies between the NSTX/-U and MAST/-U spherical tokamaks

The National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory in the United States, and the mega ampere spherical tokamak (MAST) at the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority in the United Kingdom, and their respective upgrades (NSTX-U and MAST-U) are two MAST fusion devices that have operated roughly over the past two decades. Both devices have made significant contributions to understanding spherical tokamak (ST) plasma physics, and fusion plasmas in general, and both have contributed data to multi-machine database studies. Several diagnostics have been physically moved from one machine to the other by diagnostic teams working on both devices. Collaboration has benefited both research teams in the areas of operational expertise, scenario development, and equilibrium reconstruction techniques. More focused comparative studies between the two devices have been pursued over the years in many areas as well, including stability calculations, disruption characterization, pedestal and edge localized mode stability, confinement and transport, energetic particles, and heating and current drive modelling. Together NSTX/-U and MAST/-U set the stage for the future of STs, which is entering the phase of design of demonstration power plant devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

WEST L-mode record long pulses guided by predictions using Integrated Modeling

A new record was set on the WEST Tokamak, designed to operate long duration plasmas in a tungsten (W) environment, with an injected energy of 1.15 GJ and a plasma duration 364s. Scenario development was supported by integrated modeling using the High Fidelity Plasma Simulator (HFPS), the European IMAS-coupled version of JETTO/JINTRAC, which integrates physics-driven modules into a unified framework. In particular, a reduced model for Lower-Hybrid heating and Current-Drive (LHCD) and the quasi-linear turbulent transport model TGLF are crucial for long pulses predictions up to the Last Closed Flux Surface (LCFS). Using this workflow, a 100 s reference discharge was modeled and plasma kinetic profiles and loop voltage were quantitatively well matched. In preparation for the recent long duration experiments, non-inductive current-drive actuators (I P , n e , P LHCD ) were varied to determine the operational domain going towards fully non-inductive discharges. In particular, decreasing the plasma current is shown to ease the access to such conditions, with a careful monitoring of (n e , P LHCD ) to avoid machine limitations. In addition, post-prediction experiments conducted within the investigated parameter range validated the predicted dependencies and were shown to be in quantitative agreement. Exploratory work on the use of ECCD for MHD stability purpose is also introduced.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable forest management for carbon, wood and biodiversity must consider natural disturbance regimes

Abstract Forests provide multiple benefits that include sequestering carbon, supporting biodiversity, and providing wood products. Managing temperate forests to achieve these benefits sustainably is challenging given the legacy of past human impacts, the complexity of forest development, and increasing but unpredictable disturbances. These intricacies prompted debate about the most effective management of temperate forests to achieve climate mitigation while sustaining forest productivity, regeneration, and diversity. Most research focused on management impacts under relatively stable environmental conditions, whereas forests are facing increasingly frequent and more severe climatic and biotic disturbances. Here, we used a regionally calibrated forest growth model to simulate the effects of forest management on carbon, biodiversity, and wood production under prevalent natural disturbances in the northeastern US. We developed scenarios combining forest management and disturbance regimes based on assumptions of species-specific tree regeneration and mortality rates. We compared passive management with no cutting that prioritizes maintaining existing forest trees with two common regional harvest practices: exploitative timber harvest that prioritizes short-term wood production and regenerative timber harvest that prioritizes regenerating biodiverse native forest tree seedlings. In the absence of natural disturbance, no cutting provides 41% higher forest carbon storage and 50% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than exploitative or regenerative practices. The presence of drought, windstorm, pest, and disease disturbances altered these outcomes. Regenerative forest management provides 25% higher forest carbon storage and 26% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than no cutting. Our results demonstrate that wood products and their carbon storage and fossil emission avoidance are important for determining the total climate benefits of forest management under natural disturbances. Our findings highlight that natural disturbance regimes should be considered when selecting management to promote multiple forest benefits, suggesting the need for tailored as opposed to one-size-fits-all policies to sustainably manage temperate forests worldwide.

Liu, Weier (ORCID:0000000265914239)

ReVise: A Human-AI Interface for Incremental Algorithmic Recourse

The recent adoption of artificial intelligence in socio-technical systems raises concerns about the black-box nature of the resulting decisions in fields such as hiring, finance, admissions, etc. If data subjects—such as job applicants, loan applicants, and students—receive an unfavorable outcome, they may be interested in algorithmic recourse, which involves updating certain features to yield a more favorable result when re-evaluated by algorithmic decision-making. Unfortunately, when individuals do not fully understand the incremental steps needed to change their circumstances, they risk following misguided paths that can lead to significant, long-term adverse consequences. Existing recourse approaches focus exclusively on the final recourse goal but neglect the possible incremental steps to reach the goal with real-life constraints, user preferences, and model artifacts. To address this gap, we formulate a visual analytic workflow for incremental recourse planning in collaboration with AI/ML experts and contribute an interactive visualization interface that helps data subjects efficiently navigate the recourse alternatives and make an informed decision. We also present one of the many usage scenarios, developed during exploratory feedback sessions with twelve graduate students using a real-world dataset, which demonstrates that our approach can be instrumental for data subjects in choosing a suitable recourse path.

algorithmic recourse

Williston basin associated co 2 storage field laboratory

The Williston Basin Associated CO 2 Storage Field Laboratory (WBCFL), led by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Denbury (now ExxonMobil), was established to advance understanding of CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and associated geologic CO 2 storage in the Williston Basin. The specific objective of the WBCFL was to conduct field and laboratory activities to inform decisionmakers regarding the 1) efficacy of associated storage in stacked geologic reservoirs during EOR operations; 2) CO 2 injectivity, oil production, and storage in residual oil zones (ROZs); 3) use of a novel CO 2 storage monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) technology (active seismoelectric [ASE] monitoring), and 4) life cycle and techno-economic factors for EOR development scenarios targeting ROZs. The project location was the Pennel Field in southeast Montana, which is part of the Cedar Creek Anticline (CCA) geologic structure within the Williston Basin.

02 PETROLEUM

Study of a tracking and data acquisition system for the 1990's. Volume 3: TDAS Communication Mission Model

A parametric description of the communication channels required between the user spacecraft to be supported and the user ground data systems is developed. Scenarios of mission models, which reflect a range of free flyers vs space platform usage as well as levels of NASA activity and potential support for military missions, and potential channel requirements which identify: (1) bounds on TDAS forward and return link data communication demand, and (2) the additional demand for providing navigation/tracking support are covered.

Mccreary, T.

Update of Space Station Freedom design

The Space Station system baseline concept and various development scenarios that would meet the Space Station design requirements are examined. Consideration is given to the rephrasing of the Space Station assembly process to provide a permanently-manned station with reduced early year funding, resulting in a completed assembly which includes the expected station capabilities. The contents of the baseline concept and the proposed assembly plan are compared. Configurational, functional, and assembly tradeoffs are discussed. The baseline configuration and rephased configurations are illustrated and the flight sequence and launch dates of the rephased assembly sequence are listed.

Sisson, James M.

The pulsating cusp

Recent observations at the magnetopause and of the high-latitude ionosphere suggest that the cusp may be pulzed in nature. Ground-based observations in the dayside auroral oval reveal transient optical features accompanied by bursts of enhanced plasma flow. Also, recent interpretation has shown cusp satellite data to be consistent with a burst of enhanced reconnection. These observations are used to produce a scenario in which both the satellite and ground-based observations can be fitted. The scenario developed is based on the flux transfer event (FTE) models of Southwood et al. (1988) and Scholer (1988) and shows that the signatures, at both low and high altitudes, can be interpreted in terms of FTEs.

Smith, M. F.

Subsurface microbial habitats on Mars

We developed scenarios for shallow and deep subsurface cryptic niches for microbial life on Mars. Such habitats could have considerably prolonged the persistence of life on Mars as surface conditions became increasingly inhospitable. The scenarios rely on geothermal hot spots existing below the near or deep subsurface of Mars. Recent advances in the comparatively new field of deep subsurface microbiology have revealed previously unsuspected rich aerobic and anaerobic microbal communities far below the surface of the Earth. Such habitats, protected from the grim surface conditions on Mars, could receive warmth from below and maintain water in its liquid state. In addition, geothermally or volcanically reduced gases percolating from below through a microbiologically active zone could provide the reducing power needed for a closed or semi-closed microbial ecosystem to thrive.

Boston, P. J.

Impacts of sociopolitical conditions

Space development scenarios and the choice of technologies to carry them out depend upon the future social, economic, and political factors. A brief discussion concerning the impact of sociopolitical conditions on space exploration is presented. Some of the topics mentioned include: space weapons/warfare, international cooperation, NASA's Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Program, and superpower rivelry.

Finney, Ben R.

Shuttle flight experiment preliminary proposal: Demonstration of welding applications in space

In June 1991 work was initiated at MSFC on an end-effector for 'Robotic Assembly of Welded Truss Structures in Space'. The case for welded joint assembly on orbit was discussed in the 1991 SFFP Final Report 'D'. Data drawn from Aerobrake studies (supported by the ISAAC program) allowed the more detailed investigations that accompany a design with relatively concrete goals. This principle guides current efforts to develop scenarios that further demonstrate the utility of welding for space construction and/or repair.

Brewer, William V.