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Transportation Network Topologies

A discomforting reality has materialized on the transportation scene: our existing air and ground infrastructures will not scale to meet our nation's 21st century demands and expectations for mobility, commerce, safety, and security. The consequence of inaction is diminished quality of life and economic opportunity in the 21st century. Clearly, new thinking is required for transportation that can scale to meet to the realities of a networked, knowledge-based economy in which the value of time is a new coin of the realm. This paper proposes a framework, or topology, for thinking about the problem of scalability of the system of networks that comprise the aviation system. This framework highlights the role of integrated communication-navigation-surveillance systems in enabling scalability of future air transportation networks. Scalability, in this vein, is a goal of the recently formed Joint Planning and Development Office for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. New foundations for 21PstP thinking about air transportation are underpinned by several technological developments in the traditional aircraft disciplines as well as in communication, navigation, surveillance and information systems. Complexity science and modern network theory give rise to one of the technological developments of importance. Scale-free (i.e., scalable) networks represent a promising concept space for modeling airspace system architectures, and for assessing network performance in terms of scalability, efficiency, robustness, resilience, and other metrics. The paper offers an air transportation system topology as framework for transportation system innovation. Successful outcomes of innovation in air transportation could lay the foundations for new paradigms for aircraft and their operating capabilities, air transportation system architectures, and airspace architectures and procedural concepts. The topology proposed considers air transportation as a system of networks, within which strategies for scalability of the topology may be enabled by technologies and policies. In particular, the effects of scalable ICNS concepts are evaluated within this proposed topology. Alternative business models are appearing on the scene as the old centralized hub-and-spoke model reaches the limits of its scalability. These models include growth of point-to-point scheduled air transportation service (e.g., the RJ phenomenon and the 'Southwest Effect'). Another is a new business model for on-demand, widely distributed, air mobility in jet taxi services. The new businesses forming around this vision are targeting personal air mobility to virtually any of the thousands of origins and destinations throughout suburban, rural, and remote communities and regions. Such advancement in air mobility has many implications for requirements for airports, airspace, and consumers. These new paradigms could support scalable alternatives for the expansion of future air mobility to more consumers in more places.

Holmes, Bruce J.↗

Fractal landscapes in biological systems: long-range correlations in DNA and interbeat heart intervals

Here we discuss recent advances in applying ideas of fractals and disordered systems to two topics of biological interest, both topics having common the appearance of scale-free phenomena, i.e., correlations that have no characteristic length scale, typically exhibited by physical systems near a critical point and dynamical systems far from equilibrium. (i) DNA nucleotide sequences have traditionally been analyzed using models which incorporate the possibility of short-range nucleotide correlations. We found, instead, a remarkably long-range power law correlation. We found such long-range correlations in intron-containing genes and in non-transcribed regulatory DNA sequences as well as intragenomic DNA, but not in cDNA sequences or intron-less genes. We also found that the myosin heavy chain family gene evolution increases the fractal complexity of the DNA landscapes, consistent with the intron-late hypothesis of gene evolution. (ii) The healthy heartbeat is traditionally thought to be regulated according to the classical principle of homeostasis, whereby physiologic systems operate to reduce variability and achieve an equilibrium-like state. We found, however, that under normal conditions, beat-to-beat fluctuations in heart rate display long-range power law correlations.

Non-NASA Center↗

Transportation Network Topologies

A discomforting reality has materialized on the transportation scene: our existing air and ground infrastructures will not scale to meet our nation's 21st century demands and expectations for mobility, commerce, safety, and security. The consequence of inaction is diminished quality of life and economic opportunity in the 21st century. Clearly, new thinking is required for transportation that can scale to meet to the realities of a networked, knowledge-based economy in which the value of time is a new coin of the realm. This paper proposes a framework, or topology, for thinking about the problem of scalability of the system of networks that comprise the aviation system. This framework highlights the role of integrated communication-navigation-surveillance systems in enabling scalability of future air transportation networks. Scalability, in this vein, is a goal of the recently formed Joint Planning and Development Office for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. New foundations for 21st thinking about air transportation are underpinned by several technological developments in the traditional aircraft disciplines as well as in communication, navigation, surveillance and information systems. Complexity science and modern network theory give rise to one of the technological developments of importance. Scale-free (i.e., scalable) networks represent a promising concept space for modeling airspace system architectures, and for assessing network performance in terms of scalability, efficiency, robustness, resilience, and other metrics. The paper offers an air transportation system topology as framework for transportation system innovation. Successful outcomes of innovation in air transportation could lay the foundations for new paradigms for aircraft and their operating capabilities, air transportation system architectures, and airspace architectures and procedural concepts. The topology proposed considers air transportation as a system of networks, within which strategies for scalability of the topology may be enabled by technologies and policies. In particular, the effects of scalable ICNS concepts are evaluated within this proposed topology. Alternative business models are appearing on the scene as the old centralized hub-and-spoke model reaches the limits of its scalability. These models include growth of point-to-point scheduled air transportation service (e.g., the RJ phenomenon and the Southwest Effect). Another is a new business model for on-demand, widely distributed, air mobility in jet taxi services. The new businesses forming around this vision are targeting personal air mobility to virtually any of the thousands of origins and destinations throughout suburban, rural, and remote communities and regions. Such advancement in air mobility has many implications for requirements for airports, airspace, and consumers. These new paradigms could support scalable alternatives for the expansion of future air mobility to more consumers in more places.

Holmes, Bruce J.↗

A Comparison of Geographic Information Systems, Complex Networks, and Other Models for Analyzing Transportation Network Topologies

This report reviews six classes of models that are used for studying transportation network topologies. The report is motivated by two main questions. First, what can the "new science" of complex networks (scale-free, small-world networks) contribute to our understanding of transport network structure, compared to more traditional methods? Second, how can geographic information systems (GIS) contribute to studying transport networks? The report defines terms that can be used to classify different kinds of models by their function, composition, mechanism, spatial and temporal dimensions, certainty, linearity, and resolution. Six broad classes of models for analyzing transport network topologies are then explored: GIS; static graph theory; complex networks; mathematical programming; simulation; and agent-based modeling. Each class of models is defined and classified according to the attributes introduced earlier. The paper identifies some typical types of research questions about network structure that have been addressed by each class of model in the literature.

Alexandrov, Natalia↗

A Mechanism for the Loading-Unloading Substorm Cycle Missing in MHD Global Magnetospheric Simulation Models

Loading and consequent unloading of magnetic flux is an essential element of the substorm cycle in Earth's magnetotail. We are unaware of an available global MHD magnetospheric simulation model that includes a loading- unloading cycle in its behavior. Given the central role that MHD models presently play in the development of our understanding of magnetospheric dynamics, and given the present plans for the central role that these models will play in ongoing space weather prediction programs, it is clear that this failure must be corrected. A 2-dimensional numerical driven current-sheet model has been developed that incorporates an idealized current- driven instability with a resistive MHD system. Under steady loading, the model exhibits a global loading- unloading cycle. The specific mechanism for producing the loading-unloading cycle will be discussed. It will be shown that scale-free avalanching of electromagnetic energy through the model, from loading to unloading, is carried by repetitive bursts of localized reconnection. Each burst leads, somewhat later, to a field configuration that is capable of exciting a reconnection burst again. This process repeats itself in an intermittent manner while the total field energy in the system falls. At the end of an unloading interval, the total field energy is reduced to well below that necessary to initiate the next unloading event and, thus, a loading-unloading cycle results. It will be shown that, in this model, it is the topology of bursty localized reconnection that is responsible for the appearance of the loading-unloading cycle.

Klimas, A. J.↗

Intermittent Turbulence and SOC Dynamics in a 2-D Driven Current-Sheet Model

Borovsky et al. have shown that Earth's magnetotail plasma sheet is strongly turbulent. More recently, Borovsky and Funsten have shown that eddy turbulence dominates and have suggested that the eddy turbulence is driven by fast flows that act as jets in the plasma. Through basic considerations of energy and magnetic flux conservation, these fast flows are thought to be localized to small portions of the total plasma sheet and to be generated by magnetic flux reconnection that is similarly localized. Angelopoulos et al., using single spacecraft Geotail data, have shown that the plasma sheet turbulence exhibits signs of intermittence and Weygand et al., using four spacecraft Cluster data, have confirmed and expanded on this conclusion. Uritsky et al., using Polar UVI image data, have shown that the evolution of bright, nightside, UV auroral emission regions is consistent with many of the properties of systems in self-organized criticality (SOC). Klimas et al. have suggested that the auroral dynamics is a reflection of the dynamics of the fast flows in the plasma. sheet. Their hypothesis is that the transport of magnetic fludenergy through the magnetotail is enabled by scale-free avalanches of localized reconnection whose SOC dynamics are reflected in the auroral UV emission dynamics. A corollary of this hypothesis is that the strong, intermittent, eddy turbulence of the plasma sheet is closely related to its critical dynamics. The question then arises: Can in situ evidence for the SOC dynamics be found in the properties of the plasma sheet turbulence? A 2-dimensional numerical driven current-sheet model of the central plasma sheet has been developed that incorporates an idealized current-driven instability with a resistive MHD system. It has been shown that the model can evolve into SOC in a physically relevant parameter regime. Initial results from a study of intermittent turbulence in this model and the relationship of this turbulence to the model's known SOC dynamics will be discussed.

Klimas, A. J.↗

Modeling the Self-organized Critical Behavior of the Plasma Sheet Reconnection Dynamics

Analyses of Polar UVI auroral image data reviewed in our other presentation at this meeting (V. Uritsky, A. Klimas) show that bright night-side high-latitude UV emissions exhibit so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality (SOC) that an alternate interpretation has become virtually impossible. It is now necessary to find and model the source of this behavior. We note that the most common models of self-organized criticality are numerical sandpiles. These are, at root, models that govern the transport of some quantity from a region where it is loaded to another where it is unloaded. Transport is enabled by the excitation of a local threshold instability; it is intermittent and bursty, and it exhibits a number of scale-free statistical properties. Searching for a system in the magnetosphere that is analogous and that, in addition, is known to produce auroral signatures, we focus on the reconnection dynamics of the plasma sheet. In our previous work, a driven reconnection model has been constructed and has been under study. The transport of electromagnetic (primarily magnetic) energy carried by the Poynting flux into the reconnection region of the model has been examined. All of the analysis techniques, and more, that have been applied to the auroral image data have also been applied to this Poynting flux. Here, we report new results showing that this model also exhibits so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality that an alternate interpretation is implausible. Further, we find a strong correlation between these key properties of the model and those of the auroral UV emissions. We suggest that, in general, the driven reconnection model is an important step toward a realistic plasma physical model of self-organized criticality and we conclude, more specifically, that it is also a step in the right direction toward modeling the multiscale reconnection dynamics of the magnetotail.

Klimas, Alex↗

Unstable Box Orbits in Cuspy Elliptical Galaxies

The aim of this work is to gain physical insight into the role played by a concentrated central mass in affecting the shape of elliptical galaxies, by examining its effect on the stability of box orbits which are the backbone of triaxial elliptical galaxies. Ample observational evidence is now available for the existence of a central mass concentration or central cusps in galaxies. The central mass is expected to cause orbital stochasticity and chaotic mixing of orbits, which could have ramifications on galactic evolution. We investigate here the interplay between potential cuspiness and eccentricity on the stability of axial orbits in a scale-free potential in a simple, preliminary attempt to characterize this effect.

galaxies central mass concentration box orbits↗

Modeling the Self-organized Critical Behavior of Earth's Plasma Sheet Reconnection Dynamics

Analyses of Polar UVI auroral image data show that bright night-side high-latitude W emissions exhibit so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality that an alternate interpretation has become virtually impossible. These analyses will be reviewed. It is now necessary to find and model the source of this behavior. We note that the most common models of self-organized criticality are numerical sandpiles. These are, at root, models that govern the transport of some quantity from a region where it is loaded to another where it is unloaded. Transport is enabled by the excitation of a local threshold instability; it is intermittent and bursty, and it exhibits a number of scale-free statistical properties. Searching for a system in the magnetosphere that is analogous and that, in addition, is known to produce auroral signatures, we focus on the reconnection dynamics of the magnetotail plasma sheet. In our previous work, a driven reconnection model has been constructed and has been under study. The transport of electromagnetic (primarily magnetic) energy carried by the Poynting flux into the reconnection region of the model has been examined. All of the analysis techniques (and more) that have been applied to the auroral image data have also been applied to this Poynting flux. New results will be presented showing that this model also exhibits so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality that an alternate interpretation is implausible. A strong correlation between these key properties of the model and those of the auroral UV emissions will be demonstrated. We suggest that, in general, the driven reconnection model is an important step toward a realistic plasma physical model of self-organized criticality and we conclude, more specifically, that it is also a step in the right direction toward modeling the multiscale reconnection dynamics of the magnetotail.

Klimas, Alexander J.↗

NASA Puffin Electric Tailsitter VTOL Concept

Electric propulsion offers dramatic new vehicle mission capabilities, not possible with turbine or reciprocating engines; including high reliability and efficiency, low engine weight and maintenance, low cooling drag and volume required, very low noise and vibration, and zero emissions. The only penalizing characteristic of electric propulsion is the current energy storage technology level, which is set to triple over the next 5-10 years through huge new investments in this field. Most importantly, electric propulsion offers incredible new degrees of freedom in aircraft system integration to achieve unprecedented levels of aerodynamic, propulsive, control, and structural synergistic coupling. A unique characteristic of electric propulsion is that the technology is nearly scale-free, permitting small motors to be parallelized for fail-safe redundancy, or distributed across the airframe for tightly coupled interdisciplinary functionality without significant impacts in motor-controller efficiency or specific weight. Maximizing the potential benefit of electric propulsion is dependent on applying this technology to synergistic mission concepts. The vehicle missions with the most benefit include those which constrain environmental impact (or limit noise, exhaust, or emission signatures) are short range, or where large differences exist in the propulsion system sizing between takeoff and cruise conditions. Electric propulsion offers the following unique capabilities that other propulsion systems can t provide for short range Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) aircraft; elimination of engine noise and emissions, drastic reduction in engine cooling and radiated heat, drastic reduction in vehicle vibration levels, drastic improvement in reliability and operating costs, variable speed output at full power, for improved cruise efficiency at low tip-speed, elimination of high/hot sizing penalty, and reduction of engine-out penalties.

Moore, Mark D.↗

Misconceptions of Electric Propulsion Aircraft and Their Emergent Aviation Markets

Over the past several years there have been aircraft conceptual design and system studies that have reached conflicting conclusions relating to the feasibility of full and hybrid electric aircraft. Some studies and propulsion discipline experts have claimed that battery technologies will need to improve by 10 to 20 times before electric aircraft can effectively compete with reciprocating or turbine engines. However, such studies have approached comparative assessments without understanding the compelling differences that electric propulsion offers, how these technologies will fundamentally alter the way propulsion integration is approached, or how these new technologies can not only compete but far exceed existing propulsion solutions in many ways at battery specific energy densities of only 400 watt hours per kilogram. Electric propulsion characteristics offer the opportunity to achieve 4 to 8 time improvements in energy costs with dramatically lower total operating costs, while dramatically improving efficiency, community noise, propulsion system reliability and safety through redundancy, as well as life cycle Green House Gas emissions. Integration of electric propulsion will involve far greater degrees of distribution than existing propulsion solutions due to their compact and scale-free nature to achieve multi-disciplinary coupling and synergistic integration with the aerodynamics, highlift system, acoustics, vehicle control, balance, and aeroelasticity. Appropriate metrics of comparison and differences in analysis/design tools are discussed while comparing electric propulsion to other disruptive technologies. For several initial applications, battery energy density is already sufficient for competitive products, and for many additional markets energy densities will likely be adequate within the next 7 years for vibrant introduction. Market evolution and early adopter markets are discussed, along with the investment areas that will fill technology gaps and create opportunities for the effective, near-term electric aircraft products. Without understanding both the context of how electric propulsion will integrate into the vehicle system, and evolve into the market place it is likely that electric propulsion will continue to be misunderstood.

Moore, Mark D.↗

Multiscale Dynamics of Solar Magnetic Structures

Multiscale topological complexity of the solar magnetic field is among the primary factors controlling energy release in the corona, including associated processes in the photospheric and chromospheric boundaries.We present a new approach for analyzing multiscale behavior of the photospheric magnetic flux underlying these dynamics as depicted by a sequence of high-resolution solar magnetograms. The approach involves two basic processing steps: (1) identification of timing and location of magnetic flux origin and demise events (as defined by DeForest et al.) by tracking spatiotemporal evolution of unipolar and bipolar photospheric regions, and (2) analysis of collective behavior of the detected magnetic events using a generalized version of the Grassberger-Procaccia correlation integral algorithm. The scale-free nature of the developed algorithms makes it possible to characterize the dynamics of the photospheric network across a wide range of distances and relaxation times. Three types of photospheric conditions are considered to test the method: a quiet photosphere, a solar active region (NOAA 10365) in a quiescent non-flaring state, and the same active region during a period of M-class flares. The results obtained show (1) the presence of a topologically complex asymmetrically fragmented magnetic network in the quiet photosphere driven by meso- and supergranulation, (2) the formation of non-potential magnetic structures with complex polarity separation lines inside the active region, and (3) statistical signatures of canceling bipolar magnetic structures coinciding with flaring activity in the active region. Each of these effects can represent an unstable magnetic configuration acting as an energy source for coronal dissipation and heating.

Magnetic fields↗

Spatiotemporal Organization of Energy Release Events in the Quiet Solar Corona

Using data from the STEREO and SOHO spacecraft, we show that temporal organization of energy release events in the quiet solar corona is close to random, in contrast to the clustered behavior of flaring times in solar active regions. The locations of the quiet-Sun events follow the meso- and supergranulation pattern of the underling photosphere. Together with earlier reports of the scale-free event size statistics, our findings suggest that quiet solar regions responsible for bulk coronal heating operate in a driven self-organized critical state, possibly involving long-range Alfvenic interactions.

sun activity↗

Parallels in Communication and Navigation Technology and Natural Phenomenon

The premise is more than art imitates life, or technology imitates nature it is a nascent step to see how we might be unwittingly inspired and influenced. An example that might immediately come to mind is a starling murmuration (a phenomenon called scale-free correlation) and Intels recent Coachella music festival drone performance. Superconductivity is a macroscopic manifestation of a quantum phenomenon - choreographed electrons (i.e. an electron murmuration) that enable astonishing devices. There is indeed an intimate connectedness between biology and electromagnetism. Our brains are complex neural circuits generating magnetic fields with a magnitude around 100 femtoTesla (roughly one billion times weaker than a typical magnet used to tack notes to a refrigerator door). Migratory birds navigate by orienteering with respect to the Earth's magnetic field. Electromagnetic field therapy is used in orthopedics to aid in bone repair. The electric eel generates a large electric field for self-defense. Sharks apparently detect extremely weak electric fields for finding prey. And so on. There are similarities between the way a field of wheat responds to a breeze and the natural restoring forces of a semiconductor crystal. And waves in a slowly moving river can lap backwards against a peninsular shoreline mimicking a diffraction effect. Getting back to the introductory sentence and mysterious links over cosmic distances, in August 2016, China launched the Quantum Experiments at Space Scale (QUESS) satellite. The technology is based on a non-linear crystal that produces pairs of entangled photons whose attributes apparently remain entwined regardless of how far apart they are separated. This paper will, no doubt superficially, attempt to enumerate and examine these types of connections and parallelisms.

Romanofsky, Robert↗

Reversibly Assembled Microparticles for Sustained Applications on the Moon and Mars

A sustained presence in any extra-terrestrial environment will require the capability to generate materials, goods, and ultimately vehicles, construction supplies and habitats to be tenable. As an example, NASA, in collaboration with Made In Space, Inc., recently reported the results of extensive research toward enabling3D printing in space. The extensive characterization and comparison of 3D printed articles suggested that, overall, articles generated in the International Space Station microgravity environment were comparable to those generated on Earth. The benefit of in-space manufacturing can be increased through utilization of recyclable materials. A recent analysis of a hypothetical 1,100 day round trip mission to Mars determined that significant mass savings and increase in mission probability of success could be achieved through in-space manufacturing with recyclable materials. NASA’s project ESPUR (Enabling Sustained Presence Using Recyclables), through support from NASA Langley’s Innovative Research and Development Fund, is investigating novel, polymer-coated, epoxy microparticle systems as an enabling technology to realize in-space manufacturing using recyclable feedstocks. Building from previously reported results, further progress toward synthesis of the polymer coating containing click chemical functionalities will be described here. Finite elemental analysis (FEA) has been utilized, in light of scale-free/small world considerations in an effort to identify compositions most likely to yield robust macroscopic geometries. Initial results will be described here. Finally, potential mass savings and life cycle of this recyclable materials technology will be discussed.

Click Chemistry↗

Domain Adaptive Graph Neural Networks for Constraining Cosmological Parameters Across Multiple Data Sets

Deep learning models have been shown to outperform methods that rely on summary statistics, like the power spectrum, in extracting information from complex cosmological data sets. However, due to differences in the subgrid physics implementation and numerical approximations across different simulation suites, models trained on data from one cosmological simulation show a drop in performance when tested on another. Similarly, models trained on any of the simulations would also likely experience a drop in performance when applied to observational data. Training on data from two different suites of the CAMELS hydrodynamic cosmological simulations, we examine the generalization capabilities of Domain Adaptive Graph Neural Networks (DA-GNNs). By utilizing GNNs, we capitalize on their capacity to capture structured scale-free cosmological information from galaxy distributions. Moreover, by including unsupervised domain adaptation via Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), we enable our models to extract domain-invariant features. We demonstrate that DA-GNN achieves higher accuracy and robustness on cross-dataset tasks (up to $28\%$ better relative error and up to almost an order of magnitude better $\chi^2$). Using data visualizations, we show the effects of domain adaptation on proper latent space data alignment. This shows that DA-GNNs are a promising method for extracting domain-independent cosmological information, a vital step toward robust deep learning for real cosmic survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Clustering and Cliques in Preferential Attachment Random Graphs with Edge Insertion

In this paper, we investigate the global clustering coefficient (a.k.a transitivity) and clique number of graphs generated by a preferential attachment random graph model with an additional feature of allowing edge connections between existing vertices. Specifically, at each time step t, either a new vertex is added with probability f(t), or an edge is added between two existing vertices with probability 1 – f(t). We establish concentration inequalities for the global clustering and clique number of the resulting graphs under the assumption that f(t) is a regularly varying function at infinity with index of regular variation –$\gamma$, where $\gamma$ $\in$ [0, 1). Finally, we also demonstrate an inverse relation between these two statistics: the clique number is essentially the reciprocal of the global clustering coefficient.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗