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At least 55 records · Page 3

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NASA NTRS2023

Climate Variability and Simultaneous Breadbasket Yield Shocks as Observed in Long-Term Yield Records

That climate variability and change can potentially force multiple simultaneous breadbasket crop yield shocks has been established. But research quantifying the mechanisms behind such simultaneous shocks has been constrained by short records of crop yields. Here we compile a dataset of subnational crop yields in 25 countries dating back to 1900 to study the frequency and trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks and how large-scale climate anomalies on interannual timescales have affected multiple breadbasket yield shocks over the last century. We find that major simultaneous breadbasket yield shocks have occurred in at least three, four, or five of nine breadbaskets 10.3%, 2.3% and 1.1% of the time for maize and 18.4%, 4.6% and 2.3% of the time for wheat. Furthermore, we find that multiple breadbasket yield shocks decreased in frequency even as those breadbaskets experience increasingly frequent climate-related shocks. For both maize and wheat breadbaskets, there were fewer simultaneous yield shocks during the 1975–2017 time period as compared to 1931–1975. Finally, we find that interannual modes of climate variability - such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have all affected the relative probability of simultaneous yield shocks in pairs of breadbaskets by up to 20–40% in both maize and wheat breadbaskets. While past literature has focused on the effects of ENSO, we find that at the global scale the NAO affects the overall number of wheat yield shocks most strongly despite only affecting northern hemisphere breadbaskets.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRS1980

Magsat - A new satellite to survey the earth's magnetic field

The Magsat satellite was launched on Oct. 30, 1979 into a sun-synchronous dawn-dusk orbit, of 97 deg inclination, 350 km perigee, and 550 km apogee. It contains a precision vector magnetometer and a cesium-vapor scalar magnetometer at the end of a 6-m long graphite epoxy scissors boom. The magnetometers are accurate to 2 nanotesla. A pair of star cameras are used to define the body orientation to 10 arc sec rms. An 'attitude transfer system' measures the orientation of the magnetometer sensors relative to the star cameras to approximately 5 arc sec rms. The satellite position is determined to 70 meters rms by Doppler tracking. The overall objective is to determine each component of the earth's vector magnetic field to an accuracy of 6 nanotesla rms. The Magsat satellite gathers a complete picture of the earth's magnetic field every 12 hours. The vector components are sampled 16 times per second with a resolution of 0.5 nanotesla. The data will be used by the U.S. Geological Survey to prepare 1980 world magnetic field charts and to detect large-scale magnetic anomalies in the earth's crust for use in planning resource exploration strategy.

Mobley, F. F.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Reduction and analysis of satellite magnetometer data

The broad-scale magnetic anomalies that appear in regional complications of aeromagnetic data, and in regional and global maps are discussed. Satellite data can be of value in defining such anomalies and invaluable, especially when utilized with airborne data, in their interpretation. The reduction and interpretation of satellite magnetometer data differ significantly from the standard techniques that are routinely applied to conventional measurements. The reduction of the data is discussed and its morphology is detailed. Interpretational techniques that are applicable are presented.

Regan, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Scientific opportunities using satellite surface wind stress measurements over the ocean

Scientific opportunities that would be possible with the ability to collect wind data from space are highlighted. Minimum requirements for the space platform and ground data reduction system are assessed. The operational uses that may develop in government and commercial applications of these data are reviewed. The opportunity to predict the large-scale ocean anomaly called El Nino is highlighted.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1982

A preliminary comparison of the Magsat data and aeromagnetic data in the continental U.S.

A preliminary regional scale magnetic anomaly map derived from the Magsat data over the continental U.S. shows reasonably good correlations when compared with the corresponding aeromagnetic map. This conclusion is based upon the analysis of the fine attitude scalar Magsat data of about a two-month duration starting November 2, 1979 and the analysis of the Project Magnet U.S. aeromagnetic data in the same region.

Won, I. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Interactions between synoptic-scale eddies and the large-scale flow during the development of blocking over the North Atlantic Ocean

Earlier studies of blocking are extended by examining the interactions that occur between the synoptic-scale eddies and the large-scale flow during the development of wintertime blocking events over the North Atlantic Ocean. In particular, attention is given to the change of synoptic-scale eddy activity during the development of blocking and to the role of anomalous forcing by synoptic-scale eddies in the development of large-scale flow anomalies. The dynamical mechanisms accounting for the observed variations in eddy activity are identified.

Neilley, Peter P.↗

NASA NTRS2015

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and landatmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

Cold Spells↗

NASA NTRS2018

GOES-16 ABI Navigation Assessment

The US Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite â€“ R Series (GOES-R) was launched on November 19, 2016and was designated GOES-16 upon reaching geostationary orbit ten days later. After checkout and calibration, GOES-16 was relocated to its operational location of 75.2 degrees west and officially became GOES East on December 18, 2017. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) is the primary instrument on the GOES-R series for imaging Earth's surface and atmosphere to significantly improve the detection and observation of severe environmental phenomena. A team supporting the GOES-R Flight Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center developed algorithms and software for independent verification of ABI Image Navigation and Registration (INR), which became known as the INR Performance Assessment Tool Set (IPATS). In this paper, we will briefly describe IPATS on top concept level, and then introduce the Landsat chips, chip registration algorithms, and how IPATS measurements are filtered. We present GOES-16 navigation (NAV) errors from flight data from January 2017 to May 2018. The results show a) IPATS characterized INR variations throughout the post-launch test phase; and b) ABI INR has improved over time as post-launch tests were performed and corrections applied. Finally, we will describe how estimated NAV errors have been used to assess and understand satellite attitude anomalies and scale errors etc. This paper shows that IPATS is an effective tool for assessing and improving GOES-16 ABI INR and is also useful for INR long-term monitoring.

GOES-R↗

NASA NTRS1981

Spatial and Temporal scales of time-averaged 700 MB height anomalies

The monthly and seasonal forecasting technique is based to a large extent on the extrapolation of trends in the positions of the centers of time averaged geopotential height anomalies. The complete forecasted height pattern is subsequently drawn around the forecasted anomaly centers. The efficacy of this technique was tested and time series of observed monthly mean and 5 day mean 700 mb geopotential heights were examined. Autocorrelation statistics are generated to document the tendency for persistence of anomalies. These statistics are compared to a red noise hypothesis to check for evidence of possible preferred time scales of persistence. Space-time spectral analyses at middle latitudes are checked for evidence of periodicities which could be associated with predictable month-to-month trends. A local measure of the average spatial scale of anomalies is devised for guidance in the completion of the anomaly pattern around the forecasted centers.

Gutzler, D.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Effect of Ocean Currents on Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

We investigate regional and global-scale correlations between observed anomalies in sea surface temperature and height. A strong agreement between the two fields is found over a broad range of latitudes for different ocean basins. Both time-longitude plots and wavenumber-frequency spectra suggest an advective forcing of SST anomalies by a first-mode baroclinic wave field on spatial scales down to 400 km and time scales as short as 1 month. Even though the magnitude of the mean background temperature gradient is determining for the effectiveness of the forcing, there is no obvious seasonality that can be detected in the amplitudes of SST anomalies. Instead, individual wave signatures in the SST can in some cases be followed over periods of two years. The phase relationship between SST and SSH anomalies is dependent upon frequency and wavenumber and displays a clear decrease of the phase lag toward higher latitudes where the two fields come into phase at low frequencies. Estimates of the damping coefficient are larger than generally obtained for a purely atmospheric feedback. From a global frequency spectrum a damping time scale of 2-3 month was found. Regionally results are very variable and range from 1 month near strong currents to 10 month at low latitudes and in the sub-polar North Atlantic. Strong agreement is found between the first global EOF modes of 10 day averaged and spatially smoothed SST and SSH grids. The accompanying time series display low frequency oscillations in both fields.

Stammer, Detlef↗

NASA NTRS1997

Advanced Technology Composite Fuselage - Manufacturing

The goal of Boeing's Advanced Technology Composite Aircraft Structures (ATCAS) program is to develop the technology required for cost-and weight-efficient use of composite materials in transport fuselage structure. Carbon fiber reinforced epoxy was chosen for fuselage skins and stiffening elements, and for passenger and cargo floor structures. The automated fiber placement (AFP) process was selected for fabrication of stringer-stiffened and sandwich skin panels. Circumferential and window frames were braided and resin transfer molded (RTM'd). Pultrusion was selected for fabrication of floor beams and constant-section stiffening elements. Drape forming was chosen for stringers and other stiffening elements cocured to skin structures. Significant process development efforts included AFP, braiding, RTM, autoclave cure, and core blanket fabrication for both sandwich and stiffened-skin structure. Outer-mold-line and inner-mold-line tooling was developed for sandwich structures and stiffened-skin structure. The effect of design details, process control and tool design on repeatable, dimensionally stable, structure for low cost barrel assembly was assessed. Subcomponent panels representative of crown, keel, and side quadrant panels were fabricated to assess scale-up effects and manufacturing anomalies for full-scale structures. Manufacturing database including time studies, part quality, and manufacturing plans were generated to support the development of designs and analytical models to access cost, structural performance, and dimensional tolerance.

Wilden, K. S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

“Godzilla,” the Extreme African Dust Event of June 2020: Origins, Transport, and Impact on Air Quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin

In June 2020, the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Basin were affected by a series of African dust outbreaks unprecedented in size and intensity. These events, informally named “Godzilla,” coincided with CALIMA, a large field campaign, offering a rare opportunity to assess the impact of African dust on air quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin. Network measurements of respirable particles (i.e., PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) showed that dust significantly degraded regional air quality and increased the risk to public health in the Caribbean, the southern United States, northern South America, and Central America. CALIMA examined the meteorological context of Godzilla dust events over North Africa and how these conditions might relate to the greatly increased dust emissions and enhanced transport to the Americas. Godzilla was linked to strong pressure anomalies over West Africa, resulting in a large-scale geostrophic wind anomaly at 700 hPa over North Africa. We used surface-based and columnar measurements to test the performance of two frequently used aerosol forecast models: the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models. The models showed some skills but differed substantially between their forecasts, suggesting large uncertainties in these forecasts that are critical for issuing early warnings of health-threatening dust events. Our results demonstrate the value of an integrated approach in characterizing the spatial and temporal variability of African dust transport and assessing its impact on regional air quality. Future studies are needed to improve models and to track the long-term changes in dust transport from Africa under a changing climate.

Aerosols/particulates↗

NASA NTRS1987

Tropical and extratropical forcing of the large-scale circulation - A diagnostic study

Seasonal anomalies in the large-scale circulation are studied in relation to seasonal-mean tropical forcing and extratropical transient-eddy forcing using nine years of tropical-wind and outgoing-longwave-radiation (OLR) data. Results show that in the interannual time scale, extreme swings in anomalous convection over the maritime continent of Indonesia/Borneo and the equatorial central Pacific are linked, respectively, by an east-west seesaw or a dipole pattern, identified with major fluctuations of the Pacific Walker circulation. It is found that extratropical circulation anomalies are related to the fluctuation of this dipole heat source. The overall extratropical circulation seems to be more responsive to the dipole heating with enhanced convection over the maritime continent. While the characteristics of the transient eddies, especially near the exit region of the East Asia jet stream, change substantially between maximum or minimum convection episodes, these transient eddies (defined as transients from the seasonal mean) appear to be unimportant in forcing the seasonal mean circulation anomalies.

Lau, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The scale and persistence of soil moisture anomalies as simulated in a global model

Short term variability of climate is intimately connected with soil moisture variability. Soil moisture provides the storage and subsequent return to the atmosphere, through evaporation and transpiration, of precipitation anomalies over land. Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations enable consistent identification of correlations and dynamical connections between the hydrologic variables, many of which are incompletely observed. One way to facilitate understanding with these increasingly intricate models is to perform sensitivity studies in which a boundary condition or process is prescribed. In this study we will report on a sensitivity study in which a GCM with a sophisticated land surface representation is used to investigate soil moisture variability in the model climate. The simulations to be used in this study were made at R15 resolution (approximately 4.5 deg latitude x 7.5 deg longitude) with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST) in the GENESIS model (Thompson and Pollard, 1994), which is coupled to a Land Surface Transfer model (LSX) at 2 deg x 2 deg resolution (Pollard and Thompson, 1994). All the results represented here were taken from the monthly averages of the model results. The LSX model accounts for the physical effects of vegetation with two layers specified at each grid point. Vegetation attributes such as leaf area indices, fractional cover, leaf albedos, etc., were taken from the global dataset in Dorman and Sellers (1989). A six-layer soil model extends from the surface to 4.25 m depth. SST's were prescribed in two ten year experiments using monthly SST values with the daily value being interpolated from the nearest two months. In the first experiment monthly climatological values were used, and in the second, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) observed SST's for the years 1979 through 1988 were used (Gates, 1992). Thus, the former experiment gives a measure of the intrinsic model variability, to be compared with that of the latter experiment, which includes month-to-month variability due to ocean forcing.

Fitzjarrald, D.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Local Air-Sea Interactions at Ocean Mesoscale in Western Boundary Currents

We present results from a new, global, high-resolution (∼3-km for ocean and ∼6-km for atmosphere) realistic earth system simulation. This simulation allows us to examine aspects of small-scale air-sea interaction beyond what previous studies have reported. Our study focuses on recurring intermittent wind events in the Gulf Stream region. These events induce local air-sea heat fluxes above Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies with horizontal scales smaller than 500km. In particular, strong latent heat bursts above warm SST anomalies are observed during these wind events. We show that such wind events are associated with a secondary circulation that acts to fuel the latent heat bursts by transferring dry air and momentum down to the surface. The intensity of this secondary circulation is related to the strength of small-scale SST fronts that border SST anomalies. The study of such phenomena requires high-resolution in both the atmospheric and oceanic components of the model.

Ehud Strobach↗

NASA NTRS2002

Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Evidence for wavelike anomalies with short meridional and large zonal scales in the lower stratospheric temperature field

Global microwave brightness temperature measurements are analyzed to investigate the range of meridional wavelengths 2000-3000 km where spectral studies reveal larger than expected variance. The data, from the TIROS-N Microwave Sounding Unit, are sensitive to lower stratospheric temperatures (30-150 mb). The results reveal striking temperature anomalies with short meridional wavelengths (2000-3000 km) and long zonal wavelengths (zonal wavenumbers 1-4). The anomalies, with amplitudes approximately 1-2 K, extend from the equatorial region to at least as high as 70 deg N and 70 deg S during January 1979. The features exhibit slow eastward movement or else are nearly stationary for several days. In the Northern Hemisphere, comparison with NMC data reveals that the strongest features tend to be associated with major jet streams.

Stanford, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Atmospheric convergence feedback in a simple model for El Nino

A parameterization is developed for the feedback between dynamics and heating associated with moisture convergence in the tropical atmospheric boundary layer. The feedback improves the ability of a simple model to simulate observed anomalies of the tropical atmosphere during El Nino events. In particular, two features of the observations are reproduced by including the feedback process: the smaller scale of atmospheric anomalies as compared to SST anomalies, and the focusing of the anomalies in the vicinity of the mean convergence zones. The principal remaining shortcomings of the model are discussed.

Zebiak, S. E.↗