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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating static PRA information with risk informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) simulation methods

The overall objective of the project was to develop a computationally feasible and user-friendly mechanized process to integrate traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and dynamic PRA (DPRA) results. Starting with the systematic identification of items in an existing PRA that need dynamic augmentation, the project used a generic 4-loop pressurized reactor (PWR) and 3-loop PWR as example plants. Station blackout (SBO) and large break loss of coolant accident SBLOCA) were selected as the example initiating events. Using the traditional event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology augmented by dynamic evet tree approach, the potential consequences of the initiating events were simulated with RELAP-3D and MELCOR/RASCAL codes to cover Level 1 through Level 3 of PRA. RAVEN and ADAPT software were used to generate Level 1 simulations with RELAP-3D and Level 2/3 simulations with MELCOR (Level 2)/RASCAL (Level 3), respectively. Example branching conditions (BCs) for SBO included AC power recovery time, valve repair failure time, reactor coolant pump leak time/break size and emergency power supply duration to a total of 9. Example BCs for LOCA included off-site power recovery time, diesel generator power recovery time, auxiliary feed water system operation time, safety relief valve failure to open upon demand, reactor coolant pump seal break time and size to a total of 21. Each RELAP-3D simulation (9,587 scenarios) was labelled OK or Core Damage based on the maximum allowed peak clad temperature (2,100oF). Each MELCOR simulation (4610 scenarios) was labeled as Bin over 10rem or Bin 0-10rem based on the dose at the site boundary. The scenarios were clustered based on the criteria above using the mean shift methodology. Classical PRA (CPRA) and DPRA results were compared to identify the ET sequences that need DPRA augmentation. Several approaches were proposed for the incorporation of these sequences into CPRA using clustering with the mean shift methodology, restructuring the CPRA ETs by adding new BCs/sequences, and using the concept of a limit surface. Procedures for decision making regarding the possible consequences of an initiating event (e.g. core damage or not, site evacuation or not) were developed using a convolutional neural network (CNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and a transformer neural network (TNN). The project has led to two PhD degrees, three archival journal papers and five refereed conference proceedings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating design safety margins in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers graphite core components design-by-analysis assessments

Graphite is an important material being used for core components in next-generation high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. The selection of graphite grade for a specific Designer is a complex task, dependent on reactor conditions, component functionality, and required reliability. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) provides two semi-probabilistic design-by-analysis assessments to evaluate graphite core components against design reliability targets. The simplified assessment uses a 2-parameter Weibull distribution to describe the graphite grade’s tensile-strength distribution to establish component stress limits. The full assessment uses the 3-parameter Weibull distribution and a modified Weakest-Link Theory approach to calculate a component design probability of failure. The paper defines recommended assessment rules, which are the as-written simplified assessment and the full assessment with parameter lower bounds, the modulus update with threshold reduction, and the 2027 grouping rules. Code rules are applied to three grades: 2114, IG-110, and NBG-18. The baseline margin calculation is developed using the experimental tensile dogbone specimen. Percent margin is defined as the percent reduction in the median experimental load to obtain the allowable load per ASME assessments. Under the recommended rules, the SRC–1 margin in the simplified assessment ranged from 40.2 % to 52.7 % among the grades in this study and from 36.1 % to 49.8 % in the full assessment. The full assessment only decreases the margins by 2.5–4.5 % for the SRC-1 components and 0–1.5 % for the SRC-2 components for this baseline case. Margin is inversely related to material median strength (i.e., the strongest grade, 2114, has the lowest margin).

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2018

STP/TAMU/INL Collaboration Update: LWRS Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Lead

Present a preliminary RISMC model, including plant model interfaces for Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty Loss-Of-Coolant Accident analysis using riskinformed analysis tools. Analysis results for a coupled core design, fuel/clad and systems analysis framework (LOTUS) will be presented for existing baseline codes (RELAP5-3D, FRAPCON) to Large Break Loss-Of-Coolant Accident scenarios

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Genome collection processing for “Conserved upper thermal limits and small safety margins in soil copiotrophic bacteria”

We extracted the genomic DNA of 400 randomly selected isolates using a Quick-DNA Microprep Kit (Zymo Research D3020) according to the manufacturer’s protocol. We then submitted the extracted gDNA samples for short-read Illumina sequencing (200 Mbp) at SeqCoast Genomics (Portsmouth, NH, USA). After preprocessing the sequences using Trimmommatic (Bolger et al. 2014), we assembled the genomes using SPADES (Bankevich et al. 2012) and checked the quality of each assembly using QUAST (Gurevich et al. 2013). We processed the genome assemblies using a KBase (v1.4.0) pipeline (Allen et al. 2017; Arkin et al. 2018). Briefly, we used DRAM (v0.1.2) with default settings to annotate the genome assemblies. We then evaluated genome quality and possible contamination levels using CheckM (v1.0.18) (Parks et al. 2015) and retained genomes with completeness above 98% and contamination below 5% (n = 354), following the authors' guidelines. We then obtained taxonomic assignments for all remaining isolates using the Genome Taxonomy Database tool GTDB-Tk (v2.3.2, database version r214) (Chaumeil et al. 2019). We constructed a phylogenetic tree using the tool SpeciesTree (v2.2.0). We then trimmed the tree (using Trim SpeciesTree to GenomeSet- v1.4.0), retaining only tips within our collection with measured thermal performance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Increasing the SATS Uncertainty Safety Margin

The Surveillance and Test System (SATS) checks the functionality of ATR’s Plant Protection System (PPS). The analogue linearity test checks that the SATS analog and digital conversions are accurate to +/- 61 mVdc. This project analyzes whether this accuracy range can be increased without impacting the uncertainty analysis of the PPS system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1959

Transonic Flutter Investigation of Models of T-Tail of Blackburn NA-39 Airplane

A transonic flutter investigation has been made of models of the T-tail of the Blackburn NA-39 airplane. The models were dynamically and elastically scaled from measured airplane data in accordance with criteria which include a flutter safety margin. The investigation was made in the Langley transonic blowdown tunnel and covered a Mach number range from 0.73 to 1.09 at simulated altitudes extending to below sea level. The results of the investigation indicated that, if differences between the measured model and scaled airplane properties are disregarded, the airplane with the normal value of stabilizer pitching stiffness should have a stiffness margin of safety of at least 32 percent at all Mach numbers and altitudes within the flight boundary. However, the airplane with the emergency value of stabilizer pitching stiffness would not have the required margin of safety from symmetrical flutter at Mach numbers greater than about 0.85 at low altitudes. First-order corrections for some differences between the measured model and scaled airplane properties indicated that the airplane with the normal value of stabilizer pitching stiffness would still have an adequate margin of safety from flutter and that the flutter safety margin for the airplane with the emergency value of stabilizer pitching stiffness would be changed from inadequate to adequate. However, the validity of the corrections is questionable.

Jones, George W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Structural design feasibility study of Space Station long spacer truss

The structural design and configuration feasibility of the long spacer truss assembly that will be used as part of the Space Station Freedom is the focus of this study. The structural analysis discussed herein is derived from the transient loading events presented in the Space Transportation System Interface Control Document (STS ICD). The transient loading events are liftoff, landing, and emergency landing loads. Quasi-static loading events were neglected in this study since the magnitude of the quasi-static acceleration factors is lower than that of the transient acceleration factors. Structural analysis of the proposed configuration of the long spacer truss with four longerons indicated that negative safety margins are possible. As a result, configuration changes were proposed. The primary configuration change suggested was to increase the number of truss longerons to six. The six-longeron truss appears to be a more promising structure than the four-longeron truss because it offers a positive margin of safety and more volume in its second bay (BAY2). This additional volume can be used for resupply of some of the orbital replacement units (such as a battery box). Note that the design effort on the long spacer truss has not fully begun and that calculations and reports of the negative safety margins are, to date, based on concept only.

Armand, Sasan C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Test and model correlation of the atmospheric emission photometric imager fiberglass pedestal

The correlation is presented of the static loads testing and finite element modeling for the fiberglass pedestal used on the Atmospheric Emission Photometric Imaging (AEPI) experiment. This payload is to be launched in the space shuttle as part of the ATLAS-1 experiment. Strain gauge data from rosettes around the highly loaded base are compared to the same load case run for the Spacelab 1 testing done in 1981. Correlation of the model and test data was accomplished through comparison of the composite stress invariant using the expected flight loads for the ATLAS-1 mission. Where appropriate, the Tsai-Wu failure criteria was used in the development of the key margins of safety. Margins of safety are all positive for the pedestal and are reported.

Lee, H. M., III↗
NASA NTRS2009

Brazed Joints Design and Allowables: Discuss Margins of Safety in Critical Brazed Structures

This slide presentation tutorial discusses margins of safety in critical brazed structures. It reviews: (1) the present situation (2) definition of strength (3) margins of safety (4) design allowables (5) mechanical testing (6) failure criteria (7) design flowchart (8) braze gap (9) residual stresses and (10) delayed failures. This presentation addresses the strength of the brazed joints, the methods of mechanical testing, and our ability to evaluate the margins of safety of the brazed joints as it applies to the design of critical and expensive brazed assemblies.

FLom, Yury↗
DOE OSTI2014

Accident Tolerant Fuel Analysis

Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced “RISMC toolkit” that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional “accident-tolerant” (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant decision makers should propose and evaluate margin recovery strategies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Accident Tolerant Fuel Analysis

Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced “RISMC toolkit” that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional “accident-tolerant” (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant decision makers should propose and evaluate margin recovery strategies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach for Defining IASMS Services, Functions, and Capabilities

Assuring safety in the NAS with the inclusion of new entrants, such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), will require overcoming unique safety challenges that result from combining innovative technologies with novel airspace concepts for moving people and cargo using autonomous vehicles. The focus of the In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) is to overcome AAM’s safety assurance challenges. The IASMS Concept of Operations (ConOps) describes an interconnected set of services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) designed to manage operational risks, identify unknown risks, and inform system designs. This paper describes an approach for defining SFCs based on technology trends in research, assessment of known and unknown risks in voluntary safety reports, and causal and contributing factors in aviation accidents and incidents. This approach would identify potential SFCs that further expand the Monitor, Assess, and Mitigate (M-A-M) functionality that represents the enabling framework of the IASMS. Safety implications that will result from integration of AAM in the transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS) were addressed in National Academies committees reports on AAM and IASMS. Development of a ConOps for IASMS was a top recommendation and can be represented as a reframing of safety assurance that builds on real-time alerting such as the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, and adds the more encompassing in-time temporal parameter in recognition of the different timelines for collecting and assessing safety data for risk mitigations. For example, mining for safety trends from data sources such as the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing system occurs over a longer time period. Research on AAM operations poses that SFCs can be designed to monitor the safety margin appropriate for AAM including with regards to the distance between current flight parameters and nominal ideal conditions. These in-time comparisons will become more complex as the density of operations increases at least in certain areas and can include planned and actual 4D trajectory, and in-time comparisons having implications on conflict modeling and prediction including expected and actual departure time, fix/waypoint crossing times, and arrival time. These comparisons would be integrated as part of SFCs that redefine and inform new safety margin. An increased safety margin improves management of operational risks while reducing the potential for anomalies. An increased safety margin also has implications for operator confidence in the certainty of its operations and trust in automation. Technology trends in research could be used to refine existing SFCs and define needs for additional SFCs that provide safety improvements to the design and operation of vehicles, airspace design, and operator performance requirements. NASA is developing innovative approaches to safeguard against major accidents and incidents that have occurred in the NAS and those anticipated with the inclusion of envisioned AAM operations. The innovations use operational performance data to monitor, detect, and predict flight variations exceeding safe nominal patterns, such as would be caused by navigational error, severe weather complications, or hijacking of UAS controls. These innovative approaches have high potential to prevent accidents and incidents in the new AAM era. It is anticipated that elements of the innovations will evolve into SFCs for the IASMS. Voluntary safety reports can be monitored to identify anomalies related to design or operational performance risks. Reports could be periodically monitored and assessed for specific topics. Reports might serve as weak signals or precursors indicative of emergent risk such as when combined with other safety information. The architecture could include SFCs that are based on voluntary safety reports recognizing the periodic temporal nature of data analysis. As previously mentioned, aviation accidents with their causal and contributing precursors can inform the need for SFCs in the IASMS. Accidents and incidents at San Francisco International Airport such as Asiana 214 and Air Canada 759 illustrate how combinations of different factors lead to increased risk. These types of precursors and different factors have implications on the types of SFCs that could be needed to monitor and manage different sources and types of design and operational risk. Continuing to assure the safety of AAM as designs and operations gain in complexity can be accompanied by defining SFCs that also increase in complexity. These SFCs can leverage information from findings and recommendations synthesized across on-going research, voluntary safety reports, and accident and incident reports. These SFCs can serve to refine accuracy of algorithms and resolve limitations with current practices. The IASMS architecture represents the framework for the SFCs and their critical role in safety assurance.

In-Time Aviation Safety Management System↗
NASA NTRS2015

Developing Probabilistic Safety Performance Margins for Unknown and Underappreciated Risks

Probabilistic safety requirements currently formulated or proposed for space systems, nuclear reactor systems, nuclear weapon systems, and other types of systems that have a low-probability potential for high-consequence accidents depend on showing that the probability of such accidents is below a specified safety threshold or goal. Verification of compliance depends heavily upon synthetic modeling techniques such as PRA. To determine whether or not a system meets its probabilistic requirements, it is necessary to consider whether there are significant risks that are not fully considered in the PRA either because they are not known at the time or because their importance is not fully understood. The ultimate objective is to establish a reasonable margin to account for the difference between known risks and actual risks in attempting to validate compliance with a probabilistic safety threshold or goal. In this paper, we examine data accumulated over the past 60 years from the space program, from nuclear reactor experience, from aircraft systems, and from human reliability experience to formulate guidelines for estimating probabilistic margins to account for risks that are initially unknown or underappreciated. The formulation includes a review of the safety literature to identify the principal causes of such risks.

Safety Performance Margin↗
DOE OSTI2020

A systematic strategy for estimating hERG block potency and its implications in a new cardiac safety paradigm

Introduction: hERG block potency is widely used to calculate a drug's safety margin against its torsadogenic potential. Previous studies are confounded by use of different patch clamp electrophysiology protocols and a lack of statistical quantification of experimental variability. Since the new cardiac safety paradigm being discussed by the International Council for Harmonisation promotes a tighter integration of nonclinical and clinical data for torsadogenic risk assessment, a more systematic approach to estimate the hERG block potency and safety margin is needed. Methods: A cross-industry study was performed to collect hERG data on 28 drugs with known torsadogenic risk using a standardized experimental protocol. A Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) approach was used to assess the hERG block potency of these drugs by quantifying both the inter-site and intra-site variability. A modeling and simulation study was also done to evaluate protocol-dependent changes in hERG potency estimates. Results: A systematic approach to estimate hERG block potency is established. The impact of choosing a safety margin threshold on torsadogenic risk evaluation is explored based on the posterior distributions of hERG potency estimated by this method. The modeling and simulation results suggest any potency estimate is specific to the protocol used. Discussion: This methodology can estimate hERG block potency specific to a given voltage protocol. The relationship between safety margin thresholds and torsadogenic risk predictivity suggests the threshold should be tailored to each specific context of use, and safety margin evaluation may need to be integrated with other information to form a more comprehensive risk assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Slide Test FY 2019 Report

At Los Alamos, the Slide Test was developed in 2019 to investigate whether the mass of a main charge of explosive sliding on a gritty surface, in the absence of impact, is sufficient to heat grit to ignition temperatures in PBX 9501. This is a practical test to address frictional ignition during assembly/disassembly operations at the Pantex Plant. Twenty-seven Slide Tests were performed in total, testing PBX 9501 at various slide velocities, grit diameters, grit patterns, and charge masses. Time-resolved velocimetry of the slide event (from PDV) and spot area of the explosive charge (obtained from image analysis) is reported. High-speed videography is used to diagnose explosive reaction. Eighteen of these tests were performed with a charge mass of 30 lbs at velocities ≤ 4 m s-1 and grit diameters between 75 and 1000 µm. Nine Slide Tests were performed with a 15 lb charge mass at similar parameters. No ignition was observed in any of the tests. These data provide evidence that the mass of a main charge, caused to slide on a surface at the low velocities achievable during routine handling, is insufficient stimulus to heat grit to ignition temperatures. These findings are relevant to risk assessment for explosive handling operations and provide evidence that PBX 9501 is safe within the constraints that were tested. However, because ignitions were not observed in any of the tests, we cannot determine which variables (mass or velocity) dominate the explosive response and to what extent. The absence of observed ignition also precludes the determination of a safety margin. To identify this safety margin, further research would be necessary to define the velocity and/or mass threshold at which ignition occurs.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS1978

Development, fabrication and test of a high purity silica heat shield

A highly reflective hyperpure ( 25 ppm ion impurities) slip cast fused silica heat shield material developed for planetary entry probes was successfully scaled up. Process development activities for slip casting large parts included green strength improvements, casting slip preparation, aggregate casting, strength, reflectance, and subscale fabrication. Successful fabrication of a one-half scale Saturn probe (shape and size) heat shield was accomplished while maintaining the silica high purity and reflectance through the scale-up process. However, stress analysis of this original aggregate slip cast material indicated a small margin of safety (MS. = +4%) using a factor of safety of 1.25. An alternate hyperpure material formulation to increase the strength and toughness for a greater safety margin was evaluated. The alternate material incorporates short hyperpure silica fibers into the casting slip. The best formulation evaluated has a 50% by weight fiber addition resulting in an 80% increase in flexural strength and a 170% increase in toughness over the original aggregate slip cast materials with comparable reflectance.

Rusert, E. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Coolant passage heat transfer with rotation. A progress report on the computational aspects

Turbine airfoils are subjected to increasingly higher heat loads which escalate the cooling requirements in order to satisfy life goals for the component materials. If turbine efficiency is to be maintained, however, cooling requirements should be as low as possible. To keep the quantity of cooling air bounded, a more efficient internal cooling scheme must be developed. One approach is to employ airfoils with multipass cooling passages that contain devices to augment internal heat transfer while limiting pressure drop. Design experience with multipass cooling passage airfoils has shown that a surplus of cooling air must be provided as a margin of safety. This increased cooling air leads to a performance penalty. Reliable methods for predicting the internal thermal and aerodynamic performance of multipass cooling passage airfoils would reduce or eliminate the need for the safety margin of surplus cooling air. The objective of the program is to develop and verify improved analytical methods that will form the basis for design technology which will result in efficient turbine components with improved durability without sacrificing performance. The objective will be met by: (1) establishing a comprehensive experimental data base that can form the basis of an empirical design system; (2) developing computational fluid dynamic techniques; and (3) analyzing the information in the data base with both phenomenological modeling and mathematical modeling to derive a suitable design and analysis procedure.

Aceto, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

ASRM nozzle thermal analysis

This report describes results from the nozzle thermal analysis contract which has been performed to support NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center in the development of the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM). The emphasis of this study has been directed to four potential problem areas of the nozzle. These areas are the submerged nozzle region containing the flex seal, the nozzle entrance region, the material interface region in the nozzle exit cone, and the aft region of the exit cone. This study was limited throughout by inadequate material response models, especially for the polyisoprene flex seal and the low density carbon phenolic used in the exit cone. Thermal response and particle erosion calculations were performed for each of the potential problem areas. Results from these studies showed excessive erosion (large negative safety margins) to occur in the flex seal and nozzle entrance regions. The exit cone was found to be marginally adequate (near zero safety margins) and the material interface region was found not to be a problem.

Strobel, Forrest↗