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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Measurement-Based Adaptive Voltage Regulation Method Considering Topology Changes

This paper proposes an online adaptive data-driven distributed energy resource (DER) dispatch optimization method for voltage control considering topology changes. By using a local sensitivity factor (LSF)-enabled voltage control, traditional DER control can be reformulated into a linear programming (LP) problem, leading to faster computation speeds. Power injection alteration and topology changes are two common operational changes in the distribution network that can affect the LSF and voltage control performance. To address this issue, a robust estimation method is developed to adjust the sensitivity matrix at each time step for the time-varying power injection changes. When topology changes occur, only the allocated predominant LSF submatrices are updated based on measurement data, allowing for a fast adaptation to the system reconfiguration. Results obtained from a real distribution feeder in Southern California demonstrate its robustness as compared to traditional volt-var control and constant LSF matrix dispatch control methods.

DERs↗
DOE OSTI2024

Satellite-based aerosol optical depth estimates over the continental U.S. during the 2020 wildfire season: Roles of smoke and land cover

Wildfires produce smoke that can affect an area >1000 times the burn extent, with far-reaching human health, ecologic, and economic impacts. Accurately estimating aerosol load within smoke plumes is therefore crucial for understanding and mitigating these impacts. We evaluated the effectiveness of the latest Collection 6.1 MODIS Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm in estimating aerosol optical depth (AOD) across the U.S. during the historic 2020 wildfire season. We compared satellite-based MAIAC AOD to ground-based AERONET AOD measurements during no-, light-, medium-, and heavy-smoke conditions identified using the Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product. This smoke product consists of maximum extent smoke polygons digitized by analysts using visible band imagery and classified according to smoke density. We also examined the strength of the correlations between satellite- and ground-based AOD for major land cover types under various smoke density levels. MAIAC performed well in estimating AOD during smoke-affected conditions. Correlations between MAIAC and AERONET AOD were strong for medium- (r = 0.91) and heavy-smoke (r = 0.90) density, and MAIAC estimates of AOD showed little bias relative to ground-based AERONET measurements (normalized mean bias = 3 % for medium, 5 % for heavy smoke). During two high AOD, heavy smoke episodes, MAIAC underestimated ground-based AERONET AOD under mixed aerosol (i.e., smoke and dust; median bias = −0.08) and overestimated AOD under smoke-dominated (median bias = 0.02) aerosol. MAIAC most overestimated ground-based AERONET AOD over barren land (mean NMB = 48 %). Our findings indicate that MODIS MAIAC can provide robust estimates of AOD as smoke density increases in coming years. Increased frequency of mixed aerosol and expansion of developed land could affect the performance of the MAIAC algorithm in the future, however, with implications for evaluating wildfire-associated health and welfare effects and air quality standards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discovering causal structure with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space ε -machines

We merge computational mechanics’ definition of causal states (predictively equivalent histories) with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) representation inference. The result is a widely applicable method that infers causal structure directly from observations of a system’s behaviors whether they are over discrete or continuous events or time. A structural representation—a finite- or infinite-state kernel ϵ-machine—is extracted by a reduced-dimension transform that gives an efficient representation of causal states and their topology. In this way, the system dynamics are represented by a stochastic (ordinary or partial) differential equation that acts on causal states. We introduce an algorithm to estimate the associated evolution operator. Paralleling the Fokker–Planck equation, it efficiently evolves causal-state distributions and makes predictions in the original data space via an RKHS functional mapping. We demonstrate these techniques, together with their predictive abilities, on discrete-time, discrete-value infinite Markov-order processes generated by finite-state hidden Markov models with (i) finite or (ii) uncountably infinite causal states and (iii) continuous-time, continuous-value processes generated by thermally driven chaotic flows. The method robustly estimates causal structure in the presence of varying external and measurement noise levels and for very high-dimensional data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: galaxy sample for BAO measurement

Here, we present and validate the galaxy sample used for the analysis of the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) signal in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y3 data. The definition is based on a colour and redshift-dependent magnitude cut optimized to select galaxies at redshifts higher than 0.5, while ensuring a high-quality determination. The sample covers ~ 4100 square degrees to a depth of i = 22.3 (AB) at 10σ. It contains 7,031,993 galaxies in the redshift range from z = 0.6 to 1.1, with a mean effective redshift of 0.835. Redshifts are estimated with the machine learning algorithm DNF, and are validated using the VIPERS PDR2 sample. We find a mean redshift bias of z bias ~ 0.01 and a mean uncertainty, in units of 1 + z, of σ 68 ~ 0.03$. We evaluate the galaxy population of the sample, showing it is mostly built upon Elliptical to Sbc types. Furthermore, we find a low level of stellar contamination of ≲ 4 %. We present the method used to mitigate the effect of spurious clustering coming from observing conditions and other large-scale systematics. We apply it to the BAO sample and calculate weights that are used to get a robust estimate of the galaxy clustering signal. This paper is one of a series dedicated to the analysis of the BAO signal in DES Y3. In the companion papers, we present the galaxy mock catalogues used to calibrate the analysis and the angular diameter distance constraints obtained through the fitting to the BAO scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neutrino-nucleus cross section impacts on neutrino oscillation measurements

The challenges in neutrino-nucleus cross section modeling and its impact on neutrino oscillation experiments are widely recognized. However, a comprehensive and theoretically robust estimation of cross section uncertainties has been lacking, and few studies have quantitatively examined their impact on oscillation measurements. In this work, we evaluate the effect of cross section uncertainties on oscillation parameters using setups inspired by NOvA and DUNE. To characterize these uncertainties, we adopt multiple neutrino-nucleus event generators and simulate a realistic experimental procedure that incorporates near-detector data and near-to-far-detector extrapolation. Our results confirm that cross section uncertainties cannot significantly bias oscillation results in current statistics-dominated experiments like NOvA. However, they could lead to substantial bias for future systematics-dominated experiments like DUNE, even when near-detector data are employed to mitigate uncertainties. These findings underscore the need for further studies on the quantitative impacts of cross section modeling, improved strategies to utilize near-detector data and the PRISM concept, and more robust cross section models to optimize the success of future experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A multi model ensemble reveals net climate benefits from regenerative practices in US Midwest croplands

Process-based cropping systems models (CSMs) are key components of measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification frameworks of carbon markets, but model-specific differences limit their applicability across diverse pedo-climatic conditions and agronomic practices. Multi-model ensemble (MME) provides an opportunity to better estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from agronomic practices at scale. We used an MME across 46 million hectares of US Midwest cropland at a resolution of 4-km 2 to assess the aggregate ability of different regenerative practices to sequester SOC and N 2 O emissions compared to their counterfactual dynamic baselines. MME was validated against long-term trials and compared to its constituent CSMs, showing greater accuracy and lower uncertainty. The results show that adopting no-till combined with cover crops increased SOC stocks by 0.36 ± 0.12 Mg ha -1 yr -1 , corresponding to a net regional SOC gain of 16.4 Tg C yr -1 compared to business-as-usual baselines. These benefits are halved when each management is practiced individually, and the SOC gains are only fully realized with low initial carbon stock. By including N 2 O emissions, we can assess the overall climate mitigation potential, specifically, the extent to which carbon sequestration can offset direct N 2 O emissions. The magnitude of this potential varies depending on management practices and geographic location with net climate benefits on average ranging from 0 to 3 Mg CO 2 -eq ha -1 yr -1 . High-resolution MME results allow for robust estimates of climate mitigation, reducing barriers to carbon market participation and supporting regenerative agriculture initiatives at scale.

carbon credits↗
DOE OSTI2022

DUNE atmospheric neutrinos: Earth tomography

In this paper we show that the DUNE experiment can measure the Earth’s density profile by analyzing atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The crucial feature that enables such measurement is the detailed event reconstruction capability of liquid argon time projection chambers. This allows for studying the sub-GeV atmospheric neutrino component, which bears a rich oscillation phenomenology, strongly dependent on the matter potential sourced by the Earth. We provide a pedagogical discussion of the MSW and parametric resonances and their role in measuring the core and mantle densities. By performing a detailed simulation, accounting for particle reconstruction at DUNE, nuclear physics effects relevant to neutrino-argon interactions and several uncertainties on the atmospheric neutrino flux, we manage to obtain a robust estimate of DUNE’s sensitivity to the Earth matter profile. We find that DUNE can measure the total mass of the Earth at 9.3% precision with an exposure of 400 kton-year. By accounting for previous measurements of the total mass and moment of inertia of the Earth, the core, lower mantle and upper mantle densities can be determined with 9%, 14% and 22% precision, respectively, for the same exposure. Finally, for a low exposure run of 60 kton-year, which would correspond to two far detectors running for three years, we have found that the core density could be measured by DUNE at ∼ 30% precision.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radiation-Induced Chemical Yields of Carbon-Centered Radicals and Hydrogen Atoms from the Gamma Irradiation of n -Dodecane

Here, this study investigates the radiolytic yields of carbon-centered radicals and hydrogen atoms in n-dodecane under gamma irradiation. Utilizing molecular iodine (I 2 ) and 2,4,6-tri-tert-butylnitrosobenzene (3tBNB) as radical scavengers, we quantified the yields of molecular hydrogen and various carbon-centered radicals formed from bond scission of the solvent excited states. The yield of primary alkyl radicals was significantly lower than that of the secondary radicals, aligning with expected stabilities and bond dissociation energies. For the overall loss of n-dodecane, total yields of 0.598 ± 0.004 species/100 eV for C–C bond scission, 1.648 ± 0.012 species/100 eV for C–H bond scission, and 3.20 ± 0.10 species/100 eV for unimolecular H 2 elimination were determined. Notably, the I 2 scavenging data provided robust estimates, while the 3tBNB displayed lower efficiency in radical trapping. This research enhances our understanding of radiolytic processes in n-dodecane and offers insights for future studies on the behavior of hydrocarbons under ionizing radiation, with implications for improving UNF reprocessing strategies.

38 - RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCL↗
DOE OSTI2023

TDCOSMO. XII. Improved Hubble constant measurement from lensing time delays using spatially resolved stellar kinematics of the lens galaxy

Strong-lensing time delays enable measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$) independently of other traditional methods. The main limitation to the precision of time-delay cosmography is mass-sheet degeneracy (MSD). Some of the previous TDCOSMO analyses broke the MSD by making standard assumptions about the mass density profile of the lens galaxy, reaching 2% precision from seven lenses. However, this approach could potentially bias the $H_0$ measurement or underestimate the errors. For this work, we broke the MSD for the first time using spatially resolved kinematics of the lens galaxy in RXJ1131$-$1231 obtained from the Keck Cosmic Web Imager spectroscopy, in combination with previously published time delay and lens models derived from Hubble Space Telescope imaging. This approach allowed us to robustly estimate $H_0$, effectively implementing a maximally flexible mass model. Following a blind analysis, we estimated the angular diameter distance to the lens galaxy $D_{\rm d} = 865_{-81}^{+85}$ Mpc and the time-delay distance $D_{\Delta t} = 2180_{-271}^{+472}$ Mpc, giving $H_0 = 77.1_{-7.1}^{+7.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ - for a flat $\Lambda$ cold dark matter cosmology. The error budget accounts for all uncertainties, including the MSD inherent to the lens mass profile and the line-of-sight effects, and those related to the mass-anisotropy degeneracy and projection effects. Our new measurement is in excellent agreement with those obtained in the past using standard simply parametrized mass profiles for this single system ($H_0 = 78.3^{+3.4}_{-3.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$) and for seven lenses ($H_0 = 74.2_{-1.6}^{+1.6}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$), or for seven lenses using single-aperture kinematics and the same maximally flexible models used by us ($H_0 = 73.3^{+5.8}_{-5.8}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$). This agreement corroborates the methodology of time-delay cosmography.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Star formation rate and stellar mass calibrations based on infrared photometry and their dependence on stellar population age and extinction

The stellar mass (M $\star$ ) and the star formation rate (SFR) are among the most important features that characterize galaxies. Measuring these fundamental properties accurately is critical for understanding the present state of galaxies, their history, and future evolution. Infrared (IR) photometry is widely used to measure the M $\star$ and SFR of galaxies because the near-IR traces the continuum emission of the majority of their stellar populations (SPs), and the mid/far-IR traces the dust emission powered by star-forming activity. This work explores the dependence of the IR emission of galaxies on their extinction, and the age of their SPs. It aims to provide accurate and precise IR-photometry SFR and M $\star$ calibrations that account for SP age and extinction while providing quantification of their scatter. We used the CIGALE spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting code to create model SEDs of galaxies with a wide range of star formation histories, dust content, and interstellar medium properties. We fit the relations between M $\star$ and SFR with IR and optical photometry of the model-galaxy SEDs with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. As an independent confirmation of the MCMC fitting method, we performed a machine-learning random forest (RF) analysis on the same data set. The RF model yields similar results to the MCMC fits, thus validating the latter. This work provides calibrations for the SFR using a combination of the WISE bands 1 and 3, or the JWST NIR-F200W and MIRI-F2100W. It also provides mass-to-light ratio calibrations based on the WISE band-1, the JWST NIR-F200W, and the optical u - r or g - r colors. These calibrations account for the biases attributed to the SP age, while they are given in the form of extinction-dependent and extinction-independent relations. The proposed calibrations show robust estimations while minimizing the scatter and biases throughout a wide range of SFRs and stellar masses. The SFR calibration offers better results, especially in dust-free or passive galaxies where the contributions of old SPs or biases from the lack of dust are significant. Similarly, the M $\star$ calibration yields significantly better results for dusty and high-SFR galaxies where dust emission can otherwise bias the estimations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Novel application of neutrinos to evaluate U.S. nuclear weapons performance

There is a growing realization that neutrinos can be used as a diagnostic tool to better understand the inner workings of a nuclear weapon. Robust estimates demonstrate that an Inverse Beta Decay (IBD) neutrino scintillation detector built at the Nevada Test Site with a 1000-ton active target mass at a standoff distance of 500 m would detect thousands of antineutrino events per nuclear test. This would provide less than 4% statistical error on the measured antineutrino rate and 5% error on antineutrino energy. Extrapolating this to an error on the test device explosive yield requires knowledge from evaluated nuclear databases, non-equilibrium fission rates, and assumptions on internal neutron fluxes. Initial calculations demonstrate that the total number of neutrinos emitted per fission in the first 10 3 s after a short pulse of 239 Pu fission is about a factor of two less than that from Pu fissioning under steady state conditions. Furthermore, there are significant energy spectral differences as a function of time after the pulse that must be considered. These and other model dependencies will be discussed in the paper. In the absence of nuclear weapons testing, many of the technical and theoretical challenges of a full nuclear test could be mitigated with a low cost smaller scale 20 ton fiducial mass IBD demonstration detector placed near a pulsed reactor. Potential reactors include the Texas A&M University TRIGA 1 GW–10 ms pulsed facility or the Sandia Annular Core Research Reactor. The short duty cycle and repeatability of pulses would provide critical real environment testing and measurements, which would be valuable for planning a possible real test shot in the future. Furthermore, the antineutrino rate as a function of time data would provide unique constraints on fission databases and model assumptions. Finally, there are impactful science drivers such as sensitive searches for ∼1 eV 2 sterile neutrinos and ∼MeV scale axions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Form-factor dependence of neutrino-nucleus cross sections using microscopic methods

To achieve its design goals, the next generation of neutrino-oscillation accelerator experiments requires percent-level predictions of neutrino-nucleus cross sections supplemented by robust estimates of the theoretical uncertainties involved. The latter arise from both approximations in solving the nuclear many-body problem and in the determination of the single- and few-nucleon quantities taken as input by many-body methods. To gauge the sensitivity of realistic nuclear many body methods to these few-nucleon quantities, we compute flux-averaged double-differential cross sections using the Green’s function Monte Carlo and spectral function methods as well as different parameterizations of the nucleon axial form factors based on either deuterium bubble-chamber data or lattice quantum chromodynamics calculations. The cross-section results are compared with available experimental data from the MiniBooNE and T2K collaborations. We also discuss the uncertainties associated with N → Δ transition form factors that enter the two-body current operator. We quantify the relations between neutrino-nucleus cross section and nucleon form factor uncertainties. These relations enable us to determine the form factor precision targets required to achieve a given cross-section precision.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural simulation-based inference of the neutron star equation of state directly from telescope spectra

Neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study strongly interacting matter under extreme density conditions. The intricacies of matter inside neutron stars and their equation of state are not directly visible, but determine bulk properties, such as mass and radius, which affect the star's thermal X-ray emissions. However, the telescope spectra of these emissions are also affected by the stellar distance, hydrogen column, and effective surface temperature, which are not always well-constrained. Uncertainties on these nuisance parameters must be accounted for when making a robust estimation of the equation of state. In this study, we develop a novel methodology that, for the first time, can infer the full posterior distribution of both the equation of state and nuisance parameters directly from telescope observations. This method relies on the use of neural likelihood estimation, in which normalizing flows use samples of simulated telescope data to learn the likelihood of the neutron star spectra as a function of these parameters, coupled with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the corresponding posterior distribution. Our approach surpasses the accuracy of previous methods, improves the interpretability of the results by providing access to the full posterior distribution, and naturally scales to a growing number of neutron star observations expected in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy shift of Fe-K fluorescence lines due to low ionization demonstrated with XRISM in Centaurus X-3

The Fe K$\alpha$ fluorescence line at 6.4 keV is a powerful probe of cold matter surrounding X-ray sources and has been widely used in various astrophysical contexts. The X-ray microcalorimeter spectrometer onboard XRISM can measure line shifts with unprecedented precision of ${\sim }$0.2 eV, equivalent to a line-of-sight velocity of ${\sim }$10 km s$^{-1}$. At this level of accuracy, however, several factors that influence the line energy must be carefully considered prior to astrophysical interpretation. One such important factor is the ionization degree, Fe$^{q+}$. The K$\alpha$ line shifts redward by ${\sim }$4 eV as q increases from 0 (neutral) to 8 (Ar-like). Additionally, the accompanying Fe K$\beta$ line at 7.06 keV shifts blueward by ${\sim }$30 eV from $q=0$ to 8. We demonstrate that this effect is actually observable in the XRISM data of the high-mass X-ray binary Centaurus X-3 (Cen X-3). We advocate that the differential energy shift between the K$\alpha$ and K$\beta$ line provides a robust estimate of q by decoupling from other effects that shift the two lines in the same direction. We derived $q \sim 5$ (Sc-like) for the fluorescing matter by comparing the observation with atomic structure calculations of our own and in the literature. By accounting for the derived charge state and the corresponding shift in the rest-frame line energy, we made corrections for this effect and reached a consistent residual shift among the K$\alpha$, K$\beta$, and the optical measurement attributable to the systemic velocity of the system. Consequently, we obtained a new constraint on the location of the cold matter. This ionization effect needs to be assessed in all use cases of the Fe K$\alpha$ line shift beyond Cen X-3, and the proposed metric is generally applicable to all of them.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Light-quark connected intermediate-window contributions to the muon 𝑔 − 2 hadronic vacuum polarization from lattice QCD

We present a lattice-QCD calculation of the light-quark connected contribution to window observables associated with the leading-order hadronic vacuum polarization contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, $a^{HVP,LO}_μ$. We employ the MILC Collaboration’s isospin-symmetric QCD gauge-field ensembles, which contain four flavors of dynamical highly improved staggered quarks with four lattice spacings between $a ≈ 0.06-0.15$ fm and close-to-physical quark masses. We consider several effective-field-theory-based schemes for finite volume and other lattice corrections and combine the results via Bayesian model averaging to obtain robust estimates of the associated systematic uncertainties. After unblinding, our final results for the intermediate and "W2" windows are $a^{U,W}_μ$(conn) = 206.6(1.0) x 10 -10 and $a^{U,W2}_μ$ (conn) = 100.7(3.2) x 10 -10 , respectively

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of competition of spherical and deformed shells in quasifission of superheavy nuclei

Quasifission and fusion-fission represent the two most likely reaction outcomes to occur postcapture in collisions leading to superheavy nuclei. As such, understanding these mechanisms and how they relate to one another is key to understanding the intricate dynamics that drive the formation (or dissociation) of the nascent compound nuclei formed in fusion reactions. This understanding directly translates to a more informed picture of suitable reaction partners and can provide vital information for experimental efforts to study the physics and chemistry of superheavy elements. In this work we report results from time-dependent simulations of 48 Ca + 238 U and 50 Ti + 236 Th reactions at incident energies just above the Coulomb barrier with a focus on the quasifission process that prevent the formation of a fully equilibrated 286 Cn compound nucleus. We study these reactions systematically and consider a wide range of initial configurations to extract a robust estimate of primary fragment yields for the quasifission process. Multiple preferred exit channels are observed, with both spherical and deformed shell effects in the heavy and light fragments driving contributions to the production yields depending on the initial configuration of the system. Orientation effects of the deformed actinide targets are found to be a primary driver of which exit channels are populated. Here, the impact of moving away from a doubly magic projectile is explored with implications towards the reactions considered for current and future superheavy searches.

Gumbel, Richard [Michigan State University, East L↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantile-Dependent Expressivity of Serum Uric Acid Concentrations

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” occurs when the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g., serum uric acid) is high or low relative to its distribution. Analyses were performed to test whether serum uric acid heritability is quantile-specific and whether this could explain some reported gene-environment interactions. Methods. Serum uric acid concentrations were analyzed from 2151 sibships and 12,068 offspring-parent pairs from the Framingham Heart Study. Quantile-specific heritability from offspring-parent regression slopes (β OP , h 2 = 2β OP /(1 + r spouse )) and full-sib regression slopes (β FS ,h 2 = {(1 + 8r spouse β FS ) 0.5 - 1}/(2r spouse ) was robustly estimated by quantile regression with nonparametric significance assigned from 1000 bootstrap samples. Results. Quantile-specific h 2 (±SE) increased with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s sex- and age-adjusted uric acid distribution when estimated from β OP (P trend = 0.001): 0.34 ± 0.03 at the 10th, 0.36 ± 0.03 at the 25th, 0.41 ± 0.03 at the 50th, 0.46 ± 0.04 at the 75th, and 0.49 ± 0.05 at the 90th percentile and when estimated from β FS (P trend = 0.006). This is consistent with the larger genetic effect size of (1) the SLC2A9 rs11722228 polymorphism in gout patients vs. controls, (2) the ABCG2 rs2231142 polymorphism in men vs. women, (3) the SLC2A9 rs13113918 polymorphism in obese patients prior to bariatric surgery vs. two-year postsurgery following 29 kg weight loss, (4) the ABCG2 rs6855911 polymorphism in obese vs. nonobese women, and (5) the LRP2 rs2544390 polymorphism in heavier drinkers vs. abstainers. Quantile-dependent expressivity may also explain the larger genetic effect size of an SLC2A9/PKD2/ABCG2 haplotype for high vs. low intakes of alcohol, chicken, or processed meats. Conclusions. Heritability of serum uric acid concentrations is quantile-specific.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate of ~7% °C –1 . Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗