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NASA NTRS2019

State of the science in reconciling top‐down and bottom‐up approaches for terrestrial CO2 budget

Robust estimates of CO2 budget, CO2 exchanged between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere, are necessary to better understand the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Over the past decade, this field of research has advanced through understanding of the differences and similarities of two fundamentally different approaches: “top‐down” atmospheric inversions and “bottom‐up” biosphere models. Since the first studies were undertaken, these approaches have shown an increasing level of agreement, but disagreements in some regions still persist, in part because they do not estimate the same quantity of atmosphere–biosphere CO2 exchange. Here, we conducted a thorough comparison of CO2 budgets at multiple scales and from multiple methods to assess the current state of the science in estimating CO2 budgets. Our set of atmospheric inversions and biosphere models, which were adjusted for a consistent flux definition, showed a high level of agreement for global and hemispheric CO2 budgets in the 2000s. Regionally, improved agreement in CO2 budgets was notable for North America and Southeast Asia. However, large gaps between the two methods remained in East Asia and South America. In other regions, Europe, boreal Asia, Africa, South Asia, and Oceania, it was difficult to determine whether those regions act as a net sink or source because of the large spread in estimates from atmospheric inversions. These results highlight two research directions to improve the robustness of CO2 budgets: (a) to increase representation of processes in biosphere models that could contribute to fill the budget gaps, such as forest regrowth and forest degradation; and (b) to reduce sink–source compensation between regions (dipoles) in atmospheric inversion so that their estimates become more comparable. Advancements on both research areas will increase the level of agreement between the top‐down and bottom‐up approaches and yield more robust knowledge of regional CO2 budgets.

atmospheric inversion↗

NASA NTRS2010

Robust Mosaicking of Stereo Digital Elevation Models from the Ames Stereo Pipeline

Robust estimation method is proposed to combine multiple observations and create consistent, accurate, dense Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from lunar orbital imagery. The NASA Ames Intelligent Robotics Group (IRG) aims to produce higher-quality terrain reconstructions of the Moon from Apollo Metric Camera (AMC) data than is currently possible. In particular, IRG makes use of a stereo vision process, the Ames Stereo Pipeline (ASP), to automatically generate DEMs from consecutive AMC image pairs. However, the DEMs currently produced by the ASP often contain errors and inconsistencies due to image noise, shadows, etc. The proposed method addresses this problem by making use of multiple observations and by considering their goodness of fit to improve both the accuracy and robustness of the estimate. The stepwise regression method is applied to estimate the relaxed weight of each observation.

Kim, Tae Min↗

NASA NTRS2012

Can Selforganizing Maps Accurately Predict Photometric Redshifts?

We present an unsupervised machine-learning approach that can be employed for estimating photometric redshifts. The proposed method is based on a vector quantization called the self-organizing-map (SOM) approach. A variety of photometrically derived input values were utilized from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey's main galaxy sample, luminous red galaxy, and quasar samples, along with the PHAT0 data set from the Photo-z Accuracy Testing project. Regression results obtained with this new approach were evaluated in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) to estimate the accuracy of the photometric redshift estimates. The results demonstrate competitive RMSE and outlier percentages when compared with several other popular approaches, such as artificial neural networks and Gaussian process regression. SOM RMSE results (using delta(z) = z(sub phot) - z(sub spec)) are 0.023 for the main galaxy sample, 0.027 for the luminous red galaxy sample, 0.418 for quasars, and 0.022 for PHAT0 synthetic data. The results demonstrate that there are nonunique solutions for estimating SOM RMSEs. Further research is needed in order to find more robust estimation techniques using SOMs, but the results herein are a positive indication of their capabilities when compared with other well-known methods

Way, Michael J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dark matter density profiles in dwarf galaxies: linking Jeans modelling systematics and observation

ABSTRACT The distribution of dark matter in dwarf galaxies can have important implications on our understanding of galaxy formation as well as the particle physics properties of dark matter. However, accurately characterizing the dark matter content of dwarf galaxies is challenging due to limited data and complex dynamics that are difficult to accurately model. In this paper, we apply spherical Jeans modelling to simulated stellar kinematic data of spherical, isotropic dwarf galaxies with the goal of identifying the future observational directions that can improve the accuracy of the inferred dark matter distributions in the Milky Way dwarf galaxies. We explore how the dark matter inference is affected by the location and number of observed stars as well as the line-of-sight velocity measurement errors. We use mock observation to demonstrate the difficulty in constraining the inner core/cusp of the dark matter distribution with data sets of fewer than 10 000 stars. We also demonstrate the need for additional measurements to make robust estimates of the expected dark matter annihilation signal strength. For the purpose of deriving robust indirect detection constraints, we identify Ursa Major II, Ursa Minor, and Draco as the systems that would most benefit from additional stars being observed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robust Distribution State Estimation for Reliable Locational Marginal Pricing under Cyber-Attacks

Here this paper examines the impact of false data injection (FDI) cyber-attacks on distribution system state estimation (DSSE) and the resulting distribution locational marginal price (DLMP) in power markets. Two robust high-breakdown regression estimators, namely S- and MM- estimators, are implemented to provide resistance against FDI attacks targeting measurements and grid topology, creating leverage points. The introduced estimators are compared to the weighted least squares (WLS) with a bad data detection and rejection module (BDD) and the robust Huber M-estimator. The proposed estimators are shown to be effective and compare favorably to both existing Huber M- and the WLS with BDD in the presence of topology FDI attacks. Both the S- and MM-estimators provide good performance in the case of clean and corrupted measurements. Their performance is comparable in this case to the Huber M- and the WLS, followed by a BDD module. The simulation considered a modified distribution IEEE 13 and 34-bus systems where the impact of FDI attack scenarios is shown on the state and the DLMP pricing in the presence of distributed Generation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2012

Momentum Flux Determination Using the Multi-beam Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar

In this paper, we develop an estimator for the vertical flux of horizontal momentum with arbitrary beam pointing, applicable to the case of arbitrary but fixed beam pointing with systems such as the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR). This method uses information from all available beams to resolve the variances of the wind field in addition to the vertical flux of both meridional and zonal momentum, targeted for high-frequency wave motions. The estimator utilises the full covariance of the distributed measurements, which provides a significant reduction in errors over the direct extension of previously developed techniques and allows for the calculation of an error covariance matrix of the estimated quantities. We find that for the PFISR experiment, we can construct an unbiased and robust estimator of the momentum flux if sufficient and proper beam orientations are chosen, which can in the future be optimized for the expected frequency distribution of momentum-containing scales. However, there is a potential trade-off between biases and standard errors introduced with the new approach, which must be taken into account when assessing the momentum fluxes. We apply the estimator to PFISR measurements on 23 April 2008 and 21 December 2007, from 60-85 km altitude, and show expected results as compared to mean winds and in relation to the measured vertical velocity variances.

Momentum flux↗

NASA NTRS2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. The combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

Robert S. Schrom↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robust Resilient Signal Reconstruction under Adversarial Attacks

We consider the problem of signal reconstruction for a system under sparse signal corruption by a malicious agent. The reconstruction problem follows the standard error coding problem that has been studied extensively in the literature. We include a new challenge of robust estimation of the attack support. The problem is then cast as a constrained optimization problem merging promising techniques in the area of deep learning and estimation theory. A pruning algorithm is developed to reduce the "false positive" uncertainty of data-driven attack localization results, thereby improving the probability of correct signal reconstruction. Sufficient conditions for the correct reconstruction and the associated reconstruction error bounds are obtained for both exact and inexact attack support estimation. Moreover, a simulation of a water distribution system is presented to validate the proposed techniques.

Robust, Signal reconstruction, Resilient estimator↗

DOE OSTI2024

Online Model-Free DER Dispatch Via Adaptive Voltage Sensitivity Estimation and Chance Constrained Programming

This paper proposes an online data-driven distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) for distribution system optimal DER dispatch as well as voltage regulation. Here, the key innovation is to leverage the Local Sensitivity Factor (LSF) for transforming the DER control into a computationally efficient linear programming (LP) problem. By taking real-time measurements, the estimation of LSF eliminates the need for an accurate distribution system model as well as full nodal load information, which is difficult to achieve in practice. A robust recursive least squares method is also developed to ensure the robust estimation of LSF, which is initialized using reasonable values from model-derived LSFs. This allows the system to adapt to changing operational conditions effectively. A scenario-based, chance-constrained framework is further employed to ensure voltage remains within acceptable limits in the presence of measurement and estimation uncertainties. Test results on a real-world, 759-node distribution network located in western Colorado, U.S., validate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed control approach and demonstrate its superior performance as compared to alternative methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1987

Robust time and frequency domain estimation methods in adaptive control

A robust identification method was developed for use in an adaptive control system. The type of estimator is called the robust estimator, since it is robust to the effects of both unmodeled dynamics and an unmeasurable disturbance. The development of the robust estimator was motivated by a need to provide guarantees in the identification part of an adaptive controller. To enable the design of a robust control system, a nominal model as well as a frequency-domain bounding function on the modeling uncertainty associated with this nominal model must be provided. Two estimation methods are presented for finding parameter estimates, and, hence, a nominal model. One of these methods is based on the well developed field of time-domain parameter estimation. In a second method of finding parameter estimates, a type of weighted least-squares fitting to a frequency-domain estimated model is used. The frequency-domain estimator is shown to perform better, in general, than the time-domain parameter estimator. In addition, a methodology for finding a frequency-domain bounding function on the disturbance is used to compute a frequency-domain bounding function on the additive modeling error due to the effects of the disturbance and the use of finite-length data. The performance of the robust estimator in both open-loop and closed-loop situations is examined through the use of simulations.

Lamaire, Richard Orville↗

NASA NTRS1991

Robustness analysis of multirate and periodically time varying systems

A new method for analyzing the stability and robustness of multirate and periodically time varying systems is presented. It is shown that a multirate or periodically time varying system can be transformed into an equivalent time invariant system. For a SISO system, traditional gain and phase margins can be found by direct application of the Nyquist criterion to this equivalent time invariant system. For a MIMO system, structured and unstructured singular values can be used to determine the system's robustness. The limitations and implications of utilizing this equivalent time invariant system for calculating gain and phase margins, and for estimating robustness via singular value analysis are discussed.

Berg, Martin C.↗

NASA NTRS1995

A vehicle health monitoring system for the Space Shuttle Reaction Control System during reentry

A general two tier framework for vehicle health monitoring of Guidance Navigation and Control (GN&C) system actuators, effectors, and propulsion devices is presented. In this context, a top level monitor that estimates jet thrust is designed for the Space Shuttle Reaction Control System (RCS) during the reentry phase of flight. Issues of importance for the use of estimation technologies in vehicle health monitoring are investigated and quantified for the Shuttle RCS demonstration application. These issues include rate of convergence, robustness to unmodeled dynamics, sensor quality, sensor data rates, and information recording objectives. Closed loop simulations indicate that a Kalman filter design is sensitive to modeling error and robust estimators may reduce this sensitivity. Jet plume interaction with the aerodynamic flowfield is shown to be a significant effect adversely impacting the ability to accurately estimate thrust.

Rosello, Anthony David↗

DOE OSTI2025

Lanczos algorithm for lattice QCD matrix elements

Recent work [M. L. Wagman, Lanczos, the transfer matrix, and the signal-to-noise problem, .] found that an analysis formalism based on the Lanczos algorithm allows energy levels to be extracted from Euclidean correlation functions with faster ground-state convergence than effective masses, convergent estimators for multiple states from a single correlator, and two-sided error bounds. After filtering out spurious eigenvalues and using outlier-robust estimators within a nested bootstrap framework, Lanczos estimators behave more like multistate fit results than effective masses—but without involving statistical fitting. We extend this formalism to the determination of matrix elements from three-point correlation functions and provide a physical picture of “spurious-state filtering” involving restriction to a Hermitian subspace. We demonstrate similar advantages for matrix elements as for spectroscopy through example applications to noiseless mock-data and (bare) forward matrix elements of the strange scalar current between both ground and excited states with the quantum numbers of the nucleon.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Kalman Filtering and RTS Smoothing for Arc-Jet Sample Edge Tracking

Accurate and temporally consistent measurements of test-article recession are required to characterize material response during arc-jet ablation experiments. However, image-based boundary measurements are often affected by segmentation noise, brightness variations, and frame-to-frame variability. This work extends arcjetCV [1] with filtering methods for tracking the evolving boundaries of hemispherical and ISO-Q test articles. Two boundary-tracking approaches based on Kalman filtering [2] were implemented. The first applies a point-wise Kalman filter followed by a Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother [3] to individual boundary-point locations. The second applies the same filtering and smoothing framework to a reduced set of geometry-dependent shape parameters. The point-wise method reduces local frame-to-frame fluctuations while preserving spatial details along the detected boundary. The shape-parameter method provides a compact and geometrically constrained estimate of the sample contour. Figure 1 illustrates the two approaches for a hemispherical test article. Both methods improve temporal consistency and support more robust estimation of surface recession from arc-jet imagery. The two filtering approaches provide complementary representations of boundary evolution and improve the reliability of image-based recession measurements during arc-jet experiments.

recession measurement↗

DOE OSTI2022

An improved representation of the relationship between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance leads to more stable estimation of conductance parameters and improves the goodness-of-fit across diverse data sets

Stomata play a central role in surface-atmosphere exchange by controlling the flux of water and CO 2 between the leaf and the atmosphere. Representation of stomatal conductance (g sw ) is therefore an essential component of models that seek to simulate water and CO 2 exchange in plants and ecosystems. For given environmental conditions at the leaf surface (CO 2 concentration and vapor pressure deficit or relative humidity), models typically assume a linear relationship between g sw and photosynthetic CO 2 assimilation (A). However, measurement of leaf-level g sw response curves to changes in A are rare, particularly in the tropics, resulting in only limited data to evaluate this key assumption. Here, we measured the response of g sw and A to irradiance in six tropical species at different leaf phenological stages. We showed that the relationship between g sw and A was not linear, challenging the key assumption upon which optimality theory is based-that the marginal cost of water gain is constant. Our data showed that increasing A resulted in a small increase in g sw at low irradiance, but a much larger increase at high irradiance. We reformulated the popular Unified Stomatal Optimization (USO) model to account for this phenomenon and to enable consistent estimation of the key conductance parameters g 0 and g 1 . Our modification of the USO model improved the goodness-of-fit and reduced bias, enabling robust estimation of conductance parameters at any irradiance. In addition, our modification revealed previously undetectable relationships between the stomatal slope parameter g 1 and other leaf traits. We also observed nonlinear behavior between A and g sw in independent datasets that included data collected from attached and detached leaves, and from plants grown at elevated CO 2 concentration. We propose that this empirical modification of the USO model can improve the measurement of g sw parameters and the estimation of plant and ecosystem-scale water and CO 2 fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance of a dynamic single bubbler in single and two-phase immiscible liquids

Ensuring nonproliferation and safeguards of special nuclear materials (SNM) is a critical aspect of advancing the nuclear fuel cycle. Traditional bubbler systems used to estimate liquid levels and densities in nuclear recycling processes have limitations, particularly in harsh environments where dip-tube corrosion and buildup necessitate frequent maintenance and recalibration. This study explores the Dynamic Single Bubbler (DSB) method, which utilizes a single dip-tube attached to a linear actuator to estimate liquid properties dynamically. This approach is extended to estimate liquid-liquid interfaces in immiscible liquids and employs a linear regression method to reduce uncertainties and improve accuracy. The DSB method achieved density estimate uncertainties of less than 0.5% and surface level estimate uncertainties typically under 0.5%, across various fluids including water, acetone, methanol, mineral oil, glycerol, and aqueous salt solutions. Results indicate that the DSB method provides accurate and robust estimates of liquid density and surface levels with minimal maintenance and without the need for calibration. Additionally, the method's applicability to immiscible liquids and various dip-tube geometries was demonstrated, showing promise for widespread use in nuclear and other industrial applications.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗

NASA NTRS2016

How Universal is the Relationship Between Remotely Sensed Vegetation Indices and Crop Leaf Area Index? A Global Assessment

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a key variable that bridges remote sensing observations to the quantification of agroecosystem processes. In this study, we assessed the universality of the relationships between crop LAI and remotely sensed Vegetation Indices (VIs). We first compiled a global dataset of 1459 in situ quality-controlled crop LAI measurements and collected Landsat satellite images to derive five different VIs including Simple Ratio (SR), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), two versions of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI and EVI2), and Green Chlorophyll Index (CI(sub Green)). Based on this dataset, we developed global LAI-VI relationships for each crop type and VI using symbolic regression and Theil-Sen (TS) robust estimator. Results suggest that the global LAI-VI relationships are statistically significant, crop-specific, and mostly non-linear. These relationships explain more than half of the total variance in ground LAI observations (R2 greater than 0.5), and provide LAI estimates with RMSE below 1.2 m2/m2. Among the five VIs, EVI/EVI2 are the most effective, and the crop-specific LAI-EVI and LAI-EVI2 relationships constructed by TS, are robust when tested by three independent validation datasets of varied spatial scales. While the heterogeneity of agricultural landscapes leads to a diverse set of local LAI-VI relationships, the relationships provided here represent global universality on an average basis, allowing the generation of large-scale spatial-explicit LAI maps. This study contributes to the operationalization of large-area crop modeling and, by extension, has relevance to both fundamental and applied agroecosystem research.

Vegetation Index↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the uncertainty of long-period return values of extreme daily precipitation

Methods for calculating return values of extreme precipitation and their uncertainty are compared using daily precipitation rates over the Western U.S. and Southwestern Canada from a large ensemble of climate model simulations. The roles of return-value estimation procedures and sample size in uncertainty are evaluated for various return periods. We compare two different generalized extreme value (GEV) parameter estimation techniques, namely L-moments and maximum likelihood (MLE), as well as empirical techniques. Even for very large datasets, confidence intervals calculated using GEV techniques are narrower than those calculated using empirical methods. Furthermore, the more efficient L-moments parameter estimation techniques result in narrower confidence intervals than MLE parameter estimation techniques at small sample sizes, but similar best estimates. It should be noted that we do not claim that either parameter fitting technique is better calibrated than the other to estimate long period return values. While a non-stationary MLE methodology is readily available to estimate GEV parameters, it is not for the L-moments method. Comparison of uncertainty quantification methods are found to yield significantly different estimates for small sample sizes but converge to similar results as sample size increases. Finally, practical recommendations about the length and size of climate model ensemble simulations and the choice of statistical methods to robustly estimate long period return values of extreme daily precipitation statistics and quantify their uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗