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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Controlling circuitry underlies the growth optimization of Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Microbial growth emerges from coordinated synthesis of various cellular components from limited resources. In Saccharomyces cerevisiae, cyclic AMP (cAMP)-mediated signaling is shown to orchestrate cellular metabolism; however, it remains unclear quantitatively how the controlling circuit drives resource partition and subsequently shapes biomass growth. Here we combined experiment with mathematical modeling to dissect the signaling-mediated growth optimization of S. cerevisiae. We showed that, through cAMP-mediated control, the organism achieves maximal or nearly maximal steady-state growth during the utilization of multiple tested substrates as well as under perturbations impairing glucose uptake. However, the optimal cAMP concentration varies across cases, suggesting that different modes of resource allocation are adopted for varied conditions. Under settings with nutrient alterations, S. cerevisiae tunes its cAMP level to dynamically reprogram itself to realize rapid adaptation. Moreover, to achieve growth maximization, cells employ additional regulatory systems such as the GCN2-mediated amino acid control. This study establishes a systematic understanding of global resource allocation in S. cerevisiae, providing insights into quantitative yeast physiology as well as metabolic strain engineering for biotechnological applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybridization Assessment of Trybrid Pumped Storage Hydropower System—Part 1: A Case Study of Corral Summit

This report is a part of the deliverables for technical assistance provided to Cat Creek Energy for the Coral Summit Trybrid (Triple Hybrid-Pumped Storage Hydropower, Battery Energy Storage System, and photovoltaic solar energy) energy project. This report explores the operational benefits and challenges of hybridizing an open loop PSH (200MW) located at Mackay, Custer County, Idaho with solar PV (Ground mount 300MW and floating 40MW) and battery (720MWhr). This document reports two activities performed as a part of the hybridization assessment task 1) optimal resource allocation and energy management strategy, and 2) power quality and reliability assessment. From optimal resource allocation and energy management strategy (activity 1), the following key findings can be observed: • Conventional PSH (CPSH) with two reversible pump turbines and separate penstocks can provide required flexibility equivalent to that from two ternary PSH with separate penstock. With single unit CPSH, upper reservoir head cannot be maintained accurately, the variation of water level is rapid and pump mode flexibility is not available. These disadvantages can be overcome by single unit TPSH. However, using two CPSH units with separate penstocks also overcome these disadvantages with the formation of the hydraulic short circuit between two conventional units. • Flooding of the lower reservoir is a severe concern when considering continuous operation for black start. This limits the duration of continuous operation from PSH alone to around 50 hours. Due to the complementary PV and battery action, the duration of continuous operation and smooth power output can be extended. • An optimization problem is framed that maximizes the power output on an hourly basis while minimizing constraint violations and respecting seasonal variations of solar PV and load profiles . Two value streams, arbitrage and baseload generation are served by this profile. It was uncovered that for smooth power output during regular operation, PV curtailment will be required, or the battery capacity needs to be increased above 90MW to accommodate additional PV. From power quality and reliability assessment (activity 2) the following takeaway points can be observed: • The Trybrid, when integrated at the Lost River bus, and limited to 250MW in generation mode and -150MW in the pump mode, causes no violation of voltage or flow.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing High-Throughput Inference on Graph Neural Networks at Shared Computing Facilities with the NVIDIA Triton Inference Server

Abstract With machine learning applications now spanning a variety of computational tasks, multi-user shared computing facilities are devoting a rapidly increasing proportion of their resources to such algorithms. Graph neural networks (GNNs), for example, have provided astounding improvements in extracting complex signatures from data and are now widely used in a variety of applications, such as particle jet classification in high energy physics (HEP). However, GNNs also come with an enormous computational penalty that requires the use of GPUs to maintain reasonable throughput. At shared computing facilities, such as those used by physicists at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab), methodical resource allocation and high throughput at the many-user scale are key to ensuring that resources are being used as efficiently as possible. These facilities, however, primarily provide CPU-only nodes, which proves detrimental to time-to-insight and computational throughput for workflows that include machine learning inference. In this work, we describe how a shared computing facility can use the NVIDIA Triton Inference Server to optimize its resource allocation and computing structure, recovering high throughput while scaling out to multiple users by massively parallelizing their machine learning inference. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this system in a realistic multi-user environment, we use the Fermilab Elastic Analysis Facility augmented with the Triton Inference Server to provide scalable and high-throughput access to a HEP-specific GNN and report on the outcome.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment for electric grid cybersecurity

Electric grid cybersecurity risk has become a significant concern of industries and governments. This paper proposes a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment method for electric grid cybersecurity risk analysis. The proposed method helps reduce the reliance on expert judgment, capture a broad range of components and system dynamics, and model the interactions between various contributing entities (e.g., attacker, operator). In addition, the scenarios with multiple events, such as the occurrence of both cyberattacks and failures of physical components, the occurrence of both cyberattacks and operators’ (in)correct reactions, are considered and analyzed. Further, for each cyberattack scenario, Monte Carlo simulations are used to obtain possible sequences of the system's evolution under study and then derive risk estimates. As an application of the proposed method, the risk assessment method serves as the basis of risk-informed defense resource allocation to improve electric grid cybersecurity. The proposed method is verified using the IEEE 14-bus system by evaluating different security resource allocations for selected cyberattack scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data for Controlling Circuitry Underlies the Growth Optimization of Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Microbial growth emerges from coordinated synthesis of various cellular components from limited resources. In Saccharomyces cerevisiae , cyclic AMP (cAMP)-mediated signaling is shown to orchestrate cellular metabolism; however, it remains unclear quantitatively how the controlling circuit drives resource partition and subsequently shapes biomass growth. Here we combined experiment with mathematical modeling to dissect the signaling-mediated growth optimization of S. cerevisiae . We showed that, through cAMP-mediated control, the organism achieves maximal or nearly maximal steady-state growth during the utilization of multiple tested substrates as well as under perturbations impairing glucose uptake. However, the optimal cAMP concentration varies across cases, suggesting that different modes of resource allocation are adopted for varied conditions. Under settings with nutrient alterations, S. cerevisiae tunes its cAMP level to dynamically reprogram itself to realize rapid adaptation. Moreover, to achieve growth maximization, cells employ additional regulatory systems such as the GCN2-mediated amino acid control. This study establishes a systematic understanding of global resource allocation in S. cerevisiae , providing insights into quantitative yeast physiology as well as metabolic strain engineering for biotechnological applications.

Conversion↗
DOE OSTI2022

Self-Organizing Map-Based Resilience Quantification and Resilient Control of Distribution Systems Under Extreme Events

Due to climate change, extreme weather events are occurring more frequently and with increasing impact. This trend poses a significant challenge for distribution system operators (DSO) to ensure that there is uninterrupted power supply to critical loads in their networks. To embed resilience into DSO's decision-making, resilience needs to be first quantified and then integrated into the system-level optimization. Therefore, this paper first develops a novel self-organizing map (SOM) based method (called SomRes) to quantify the time-varying resilience index of a system that can leverage the powerful classification property of SOMs and removes some of the disadvantages of subjective weight assignment methods. Using SomRes, a resilient resource allocation and operational dispatch algorithm is further developed to enhance system resilience against extreme events by considering the SomRes resilience index directly as the feedback. Here, the proposed resilience quantification approach is benchmarked with a state-of-the-art approach and the efficacy of the proposed resilient dispatch algorithm is demonstrated through several deterministic and statistical case studies on the IEEE 123-bus distribution system. Simulation studies show that the proposed SomRes quantification method is an appropriate indicator of system resilience, and the resilient resource allocation and dispatch strategy can significantly reduce critical load shedding under varying event propagation scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Queue wait time prediction in high performance computing (HPC) systems

High Performance Computing (HPC) systems are critical enablers for groundbreaking scientific research across various domains. Efficient resource allocation, facilitated by job scheduling, is paramount for maximizing the utilization of HPC systems. However, the variability in wait times for queued jobs poses challenges for users, necessitating accurate job wait time estimation. This paper explores the influence of job characteristics, including job size (the number of nodes requested and walltime), the queue to which the job is submitted and other resource requirements, on job wait times in leadership-class HPC systems. Focusing on the Theta Cray XC40 and Polaris machines at Argonne National Laboratory, the study evaluates the performance of different supervised learning algorithms in predicting job wait times. It also evaluates the impact of data preprocessing, including outlier detection, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and feature selection, on the performance of wait time prediction models. The findings reveal insights into the relationship between job characteristics and wait times, offering a foundation for optimizing resource allocation and enhancing user experience. The methodologies and tools developed in this study are adaptable to other leadership-class HPC systems, providing a valuable contribution to the broader HPC community aiming to improve job scheduling efficiency and user satisfaction.

Okafor, Nwamaka↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Versatile Simulated Data Transport Layer for in Situ Workflows Performance Evaluation

In situ processing does not only allow scientific applications to face the explosion in data volume and velocity but also to address the time constraints of many simulation-analysis workflows by providing scientists with early insights about their applications at runtime. Multiple frameworks implement the concept of a data transport layer (DTL) to enable such in situ workflows. These tools are very versatile, directly or indirectly access the data generated on the same node, another node of the same compute cluster, or a completely distinct node, and allow data publishers and subscribers to run on the same computing resources or not. This versatility puts on researchers the onus of taking key decisions related to resource allocation and how to transport data to ensure the most efficient execution of their in situ workflows. However, domain scientists and workflow practitioners lack the appropriate tools to assess the respective performance of particular design and deployment options. In this paper we introduce a versatile simulated DTL designed to provide researchers with insights on the respective performance of different execution scenarios of in situ workflows. This open-source, standalone library builds on the SimGrid toolkit and can be linked to any SimGrid-based simulator. It facilitates the evaluation of the performance behavior, at scale, of different data transport configurations and the study of the effects of resource allocation strategies. We demonstrate the scalability, versatility, and accuracy of this simulated DTL by reproducing the execution of two synthetic benchmarks and of a real-world in situ workflow composed of an MPI application and a parallel data analysis. Results of simulations run on a single core show that the proposed library can simulate the interactions of tens of thousands of simulated processes deployed on two interconnected commodity clusters in a few seconds, and the execution by a thousand simulated processes of an in situ workflow in less than three minutes.

Suter, Fred [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000319021955)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries: Summary of Laboratory Directed Research & Development Effort

The Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries (TACCRAB) tool is an innovative digital twin (DT) platform and automated risk algorithm designed to transform operational decision-making in structured screening environments, with an initial focus on Southern Border Land Ports of Entry (POEs). The invention provides integration points for advanced artificial intelligence, predictive modeling, and real-time data analysis to produce a comprehensive risk management tool that enables proactive, data-informed security strategies. The core inventive features of TACCRAB center on its unique risk algorithm, which dynamically calculates contextual risk by synthesizing historical data, near real-time streaming data from the checkpoints themselves, and AI-generated predictions. Unlike traditional risk assessment methods, TACCRAB utilizes a DT to provide comprehensive operational insights, allowing stakeholders to visualize, simulate, and optimize checkpoint configurations with unprecedented speed and contextual awareness. TACCRAB's key innovation lies in its ability to combine multiple complex inputs - including technology detection probabilities, resource availability, screening pathway characteristics, and threat actor behavioral patterns - into a unified risk calculation and update these inputs based on changing operational and environmental conditions. By leveraging a DT that continuously updates and learns from linked data, TACCRAB can suggest adaptive mitigation strategies that minimize risk while maintaining operational efficiency. Particularly novel is the platform's approach to decision support, which goes beyond static risk assessment. The DT provides dynamic metrics such as wait times, resource allocation effectiveness, and potential emerging threat scenarios, enabling users to view sophisticated, relevant what-if simulations and optimize checkpoint operations in near real-time. The system's architecture allows for generalized application across different screening environments, such as secure facilities, ports of entry, and soft targets, making it a versatile tool for security and operational management. The invention distinguishes itself through its comprehensive integration of predictive modeling, AI-driven pattern discovery, and user-friendly interface design. By combining these elements, TACCRAB transforms complex risk data into actionable insights, supporting decision-makers at various organizational levels - from booth agents making split-second screening decisions to checkpoint managers optimizing the day's resource allocation to strategic planners managing long-term investments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Greenhouse Gas Accounting Procedures in Low Carbon Fuel Policies Overlook the Spatial Variability of Miscanthus-Derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Low carbon fuel policies such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) as well as the 45Z tax credit are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. Cellulosic feedstocks, optimized biorefineries, and favorable farming locations can significantly reduce biofuel carbon intensity (CI). Despite advances in field-to-fuel GHG monitoring and flexibility in resource allocation within biorefineries (e.g., governing net electricity production), rigid CI accounting procedures in current policies may limit CI responsiveness across candidate sites and processing facilities. This work examines a hypothetical biomass-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathway using miscanthus and alcohol-to-jet (i) to demonstrate how GHG accounting requirements drive estimates of biofuel CIs and (ii) to explore potential CI and financial implications of scenario-specific life cycle assessment (LCA). Results demonstrate that GHG accounting using the CFR/LCFS can reasonably account for distinct levels of net electricity production by a biorefinery, but only the CFR yields similar CI sensitivity to spatially explicit factors (feedstock CI, grid electricity CI) as scenario-specific LCA: most GHG accounting frameworks do not capture CI variation across candidate sites in the United States. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the importance of LCA methodological specifications in low carbon fuel policies and tax credits.

Miscanthus↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Bricks to Clicks: Mapping the White Space in Building Innovation

It is a critical national imperative to transform the buildings sector, yet innovation is impeded by deployment failures that leave promising technologies stranded. Conventional market reports and techno-economic analysis provide an insufficient understanding of markets and resource allocation for emerging building technologies. They omit crucial commercialization factors such as ecosystem maturity and adoption friction, where the coordinated participation of a network of suppliers, contractors, financiers, regulators, and integrators is required to scale solutions. This study addresses these gaps by introducing an evaluation framework grounded in front-line data from six years of the DOE's IMPEL incubator, comprising experience from 300 building-sector innovators and the adjacent, complex ecosystem. Our methodology synthesizes top-down market analysis with bottom-up, practitioner-level data across five megatrends: (M1) Affordable materials and industrialized construction; (M2) Healthy and efficient mechanical systems; (M3) Intelligent building operations; (M4) Buildings as grid assets; and (M5) High-density power and cooling for data centers and therein identify twelve "white space" technology opportunities. Next, we develop a multi-criteria scoring rubric to rank these opportunities based on parameters, i.e., Affordability, Quality of Life, Reliability, and Security, yielding composite ‘Demand’ and ‘Maturity’ indices. Our results indicate that the most significant white spaces may not be incremental products but a new class of ‘Ecosystem Enablers’, such as logistics platforms, orchestration layers, and automated compliance software that solve structural deployment gaps. This paper summarizes this transparent, evidence-based, practitioner-informed evaluation framework for policymakers and investors to re-evaluate policy and resource allocation and unlock scalable market transformation.

Singh, Reshma↗
DOE OSTI2023

Convex Q-Learning in Continuous Time with Application to Dispatch of Distributed Energy Resources

Convex Q-learning is a recent approach to reinforcement learning, motivated by the possibility of a firmer theory for convergence, and the possibility of making use of greater a priori knowledge regarding policy or value function structure. This paper explores algorithm design in the continuous time domain, with a finite-horizon optimal control objective. The main contributions are (i) The new Q-ODE: a model-free characterization of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. (ii) A formulation of Convex Q-learning that avoids approximations appearing in prior work. The Bellman error used in the algorithm is defined by filtered measurements, which is necessary in the presence of measurement noise. (iii) Convex Q-learning with linear function approximation is a convex program. It is shown that the constraint region is bounded, subject to an exploration condition on the training input. (iv) The theory is illustrated in application to resource allocation for distributed energy resources, for which the theory is ideally suited.

Lu, Fan↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Does Escherichia coli Allocate Proteome?

Microorganisms are shown to actively partition their intracellular resources, such as pro- teins, for growth optimization. Recent experiments have begun to reveal molecular com- ponents unpinning the partition; however, it remains unclear quantitatively how individual parts orchestrate to yield precise resource allocation that is both robust and dynamic. Here we developed a coarse-grained mathematical framework that centers on guanosine pentaphosphate (ppGpp)-mediated regulation, and used it to systematically uncover the design principles of proteome allocation in Escherichia coli. Our results showed that cellular ability of resource partition lies in an ultrasensitive, negative feedback control- ling topology with the ultrasensitivity arising from zero-order amino acid kinetics and the negative feedback from ppGpp-controlled ribosome synthesis. In addition, together with the time-scale separation between slow ribosome kinetics and fast turnovers of ppGpp and amino acids, the network topology confers the organism an optimization mechanism which mimics sliding mode control, a nonlinear optimization strategy that is widely used in man-made systems. We further showed that such a controlling mechanism is robust against parameter variations and molecular fluctuations, and is also efficient for biomass production over time. Furthermore, this work elucidates the fundamental controlling mechanism of E. coli proteome allocation, thereby providing insights into quantitative microbial physiology as well as the design of synthetic gene networks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enabling HPC Scientific Workflows for Serverless

The convergence of edge computing, big data analytics, and AI with traditional scientific calculations is increasingly being adopted in HPC workflows. Workflow management systems are crucial for managing and orchestrating these complex computational tasks. However, it is difficult to identify patterns within the growing population of HPC workflows. Serverless has emerged as a novel computing paradigm, offering dynamic resource allocation, quick response time, fine-grained resource management and auto-scaling. In this paper, we propose a framework to enable HPC scientific workflows on serverless. Our approach integrates a widely used traditional HPC workflow generator with an HPC serverless workflow management system to create benchmark suites of scientific workflows with diverse characteristics. These workflows can be executed on different serverless platforms. We comprehensively compare executing workflows on traditional local containers and serverless computing platforms. Our results show that serverless can reduce CPU and memory usage respectively by 78.11% and 73.92% without compromising performance.

Andrei da silva, Anderson↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model of metabolism and gene expression predicts proteome allocation in Pseudomonas putida

Abstract The genome-scale model of metabolism and gene expression (ME-model) forPseudomonas putidaKT2440,iPpu1676-ME, provides a comprehensive representation of biosynthetic costs and proteome allocation. Compared to a metabolic-only model,iPpu1676-ME significantly expands on gene expression, macromolecular assembly, and cofactor utilization, enabling accurate growth predictions without additional constraints. Multi-omics analysis using RNA sequencing and ribosomal profiling data revealed translational prioritization inP. putida, with core pathways, such as nicotinamide biosynthesis and queuosine metabolism, exhibiting higher translational efficiency, while secondary pathways displayed lower priority. Notably, the ME-model significantly outperformed the M-model in alignment with multi-omics data, thereby validating its predictive capacity. Thus,iPpu1676-ME offers valuable insights intoP. putida’s proteome allocation and presents a powerful tool for understanding resource allocation in this industrially relevant microorganism.

Mathematical & Computational Biology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling Optimal Allocation of Cloud Resources Using Lagrange Relaxation

The rapid growth of Cloud Computing (CC) has increased the variety of computing resources, storage, and communication services that pose significant new challenges for the efficient use of cloud resources. The cost-efficient allocation of cloud resources has become a decisive premise for the adoption of CC services. The cost-efficient selection and scheduling of these resources to meet the demands of a scientific workflow is a challenging problem that is exacerbated by the inclusion of multiple CC providers. In this paper, we present a novel strategy for the cost-efficient selection of CC resources using Lagrange relaxation. Our approach is based on preselection of resources and demand decomposition to create a series of smaller sub-problems, which allow the estimation of the best cost-structures and selection of CC service providers for a subset of the time period of the planning horizon. Decomposition of the demand is achieved through the boundary analysis of a continuous relaxation of the problem. Using the metrics defined in terms of the cost and time of completion, we demonstrate excellent performance in relation to optimal solutions. Our method reduced the computational time from hours to seconds for a representative 36-month problem and provided high-quality solutions (< 0.05% relative error). Given the importance of selecting resources and scheduling complex scientific workflows, we believe that this novel strategy will be beneficial for many researchers and users of cloud computing resources.

De La Torre, Luis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Conquering Data Chaos: Research Data Management with Kubernetes

Managing massive volumes of data and effectively making it accessible to researchers poses significant challenges and is a barrier to scientific discovery. In many cases, critical data is locked up in unwieldy file formats or one-off databases and is too large to effectively process on a single machine. This talk explores the role of Kubernetes, an open-source container orchestration platform, in addressing research data management challenges. I will discuss how we are using a set of publicly available open-source and home-grown tools in the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) Data, Analysis, and Visualization (DAV) group to help researchers overcome data-related bottlenecks. The talk will begin by providing an overview of the data challenges faced in research data management, including data storage, processing, and analysis. I will highlight Kubernetes' ability to handle large-scale data by leveraging containerization and distributed computing, including distributed storage. Kubernetes allows researchers to encapsulate data processing infrastructure and workflows into portable containers, enabling reproducibility and ease of deployment. Kubernetes can then schedule and manage the resource allocation of these containers to enable efficient utilization of limited computing resources, leading to more efficient data processing and analysis. I will discuss some limitations of traditional, siloed approaches to dealing with data and emphasize the need for solutions which foster collaboration. I will highlight how we are using Kubernetes at NREL to facilitate data sharing and cooperation among research teams. Kubernetes' flexible architecture enables the deployment of shared computing environments, such as Apache Superset, where researchers can seamlessly access and analyze shared datasets. Providing the ability to have one research team easily consume data generated by another, utilizing Kubernetes' as a central data platform, is one of the major wins we've encountered by adopting the platform. Finally, I will showcase real-world use cases from NREL where we have used Kubernetes to solve some persistent data challenges involving large volumes of sensor and monitoring data. I will discuss the challenges we encountered when creating our cluster and making it available as a production-ready resource. I will also discuss the specific suite of tools, including Postgres and Apache Druid for columnar and timeseries data, and Redpanda Kafka for streaming data we have deployed in our infrastructure, and the process that went into the selection of these tools.

collaborative environment↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗