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DOE OSTI2021

Urban Green Spaces, Greenness Exposure and Species Richness in Residential Environments and Relations with Physical Activity and BMI in Portuguese Adolescents

Environmental factors play an important role in obesity-related behaviors. Evidence indicates significant associations between weight and urban green spaces in adults, but it is not clear whether this relationship applies to adolescents. Therefore, our aim was to determine the associations between urban green spaces, greenness exposure and species richness in residential environments with physical activity and body mass index. Sixty-two adolescents between 12 and 18 years of age answered a self-administered questionnaire, providing information on height, weight, age, sex and home address. Data on socioeconomic deprivation were obtained from the European Index of Deprivation for Small Portuguese Areas. Physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometers. Urban green space counts and the normalized difference vegetation index values were measured using buffers along the roads with distances of 300, 500, 1000 and 1500 m from each participant’s residence. To quantify the species richness, the species richness index was used. Linear regression models were fitted to analyze whether urban green spaces, exposure to green spaces and species richness counts for each distance were associated with physical activity and self-reported body mass index. We did not find significant associations between the independent variables and the probability of overweight or obesity. The relationship between environmental variables, adolescents’ physical activity and body weight seems to be complex and further studies may contribute to better understanding of the topic.

Melo, Juliana (ORCID:0000000301275340)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Framework to select robust energy retrofit measures for residential communities

Residential building energy retrofits are essential for enhancing environmental sustainability and reducing energy costs. The selection of retrofit measures is influenced by factors such as building systems, occupant behavior, government policy, weather variability, and climate change, all of which can significantly impact energy performance. Compared to retrofitting individual homes, evaluating and selecting optimal retrofit solutions for an entire community is challenging due to diverse residential compositions and variability present. Therefore, engineering robustness is crucial for ensuring consistent energy performance and resilience across different conditions. In this context, robustness refers to the ability of a retrofit measure to maintain its functionality and remain an optimal choice despite external disturbances or changes in inputs and conditions. This study presents a framework for evaluating the robustness of multiple retrofit measures across various building systems, occupant behaviors, and environmental scenarios at the community level. The framework comprises five key steps: scenario model development, integration of the National Residential Efficiency Measures database, energy performance simulation, cost-benefit aggregation, and retrofit solution selection. Each step enhances the framework’s robustness by incorporating the diversity of building characteristics, occupant behaviors, environmental conditions, retrofit options, and evaluation criteria. The framework’s effectiveness is demonstrated through a case study in southern Michigan in the United States, which includes 63 one-story single-family houses, 121 two-story single-family houses, and 8 townhouses. The study identifies furnace retrofits as the most robust solution for the entire community, consistently achieving source energy reductions of 4.7 %–8.0 % and payback period of 10–20 years across various scenarios. These findings are consistent with previous research, indicating the framework’s potential for broader applications in optimizing community-scale residential energy retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance Year 1 Technical Report - OPEN COG Grid: Extendable Coherent Models-Datasets for Cognitive Power Grids

The OPEN COG Grid project is a collaborative effort between LLNL, NREL, and Texas A&M University (TAMU) to develop synthetic power system datasets that (i) contain all technical information that would be available in a real system, allowing to conduct studies ranging from dynamic simulation to long term planning studies; ii) are accessible to researchers from the broader data sciences community, as oppossed to power system experts only; and (iii) This report summarizes the work conducted during the first 15 months of execution of the project. These activities encompassed: 1. Conduct a survey of existing open data sets and open source power systems simulators, their supported use cases, and accessibility (Chapter 1). 2. Define a new extensible specification for power system data, covering all parameters necessary for most computational use cases (Chapter 2). 3. Collecting real technical system data to complete missing parameters in existing open source datasets (Chapter 3). 4. Develop models that capture the behavior of emergent actors in power grids, neglected by existing datasets; aggregated residential demand response (Chapter 4) and demand response of cryptocurrency miners (Chapter 5). 5. Collect detailed spatial information on distributed energy resources, particular, solar photovoltaic facilities (Chapter 6). The following chapters provide detailed descriptions of these tasks, the assumptions taken, and their findings. In conducting these tasks, the project team produced: two (accepted) conference papers; one journal paper under submission; one draft journal paper pending submission; released one repository with the developed power system data specification, with documentation and examples; and one extended dataset for the Texas power grid under review for release. The team hopes these contributions will enhance access to power system data and remove barriers to the development of new computational techniques for power systems, particularly, those inspired by cognitive sciences.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

OCHRE: The Object-oriented, Controllable, High-resolution Residential Energy Model for Dynamic Integration Studies

Electrification and the growth of distributed energy resources (DERs), including flexible loads, are changing the energy landscape of electric distribution systems and creating new challenges and opportunities for electric utilities. Changes in demand profiles require improvements in distribution system load models, which have not historically accounted for device controllability or impacts on customer comfort. Although building modeling research has focused on these features, there is a need to incorporate them into distribution load models that include DERs and can be used to study grid-interactive buildings. In this paper, we present the Object-oriented, Controllable, High-resolution Residential Energy (OCHRE) model. OCHRE is a controllable thermal-electric residential energy model that captures building thermal dynamics, integrates grid-dependent electrical behavior, contains models for common DERs and end-use loads, and simulates at a time resolution down to 1 minute. It includes models for space heaters, air conditioners, water heaters, electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and batteries that are externally controllable and integrated in a co-simulation framework. Using a proposed zero energy ready community in Colorado, we co-simulate a distribution grid and 498 all-electric homes with a diverse set of efficiency levels and equipment properties. We show that controllable devices can reduce peak demand within a neighborhood by up to 73% during a critical peak period without sacrificing occupant comfort. We also demonstrate the importance of modeling load diversity at a high time resolution when quantifying power and voltage fluctuations across a distribution system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing thermal comfort and participation in residential demand flexibility programs

Residential space-conditioning-based demand flexibility (DF) has become an increasingly sought-after method for demand-side load management to enhance grid reliability and facilitate integration of renewable energy generation. However, predicting the effectiveness and flexibility of residential DF resources is challenging due to the variability in household energy use behaviors. Current estimates show that only 50 % of projected savings from DF resources are actualized due to regulatory, technological, and social barriers. From a household perspective, concerns over thermal comfort during space conditioning-based DF events significantly impact participation decisions. Currently, there is a very limited understanding of how thermal comfort during space-conditioning-based DF events in real-world settings impacts household energy use behaviors and, consequently, the success of DF programs in achieving targeted savings. This paper proposes a method to comprehensively assess the thermal comfort implications of DF strategies and presents results of their impacts on DF event participation decisions and demand savings. Here, the proposed method was applied to a heat pump DF field study in Cordova, Alaska. The study’s key findings are: 1) DF event setpoint offsets that maintain indoor operative temperatures between 18 to 22 °C (65 to 71°F) may be preferred in Cordova, Alaska; 2) Household-level thermal comfort is more sensitive to the duration of the DF event than to the degree of temperature offset from baseline conditions; 3) The delayed impact of changes in indoor operative temperature in response to setpoint offsets, both during and after a DF event, influences occupants’ thermal comfort perceptions and willingness to persistently participate in events. The findings from application of the proposed method can help inform future larger-scale occupant-centric DF programs as it can capture information not readily available through utility and device-level energy use data. Thus, it can supplement these sources and help program administrators develop occupant-centric DF strategies, enabling more accurate predictions of participation rates and savings estimates for space-conditioning-based DF programs.

Demand side management↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cross-sectoral synergies for household energy savings: the role of electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, and remote work

Over the past two decades, new technologies and behavioral shifts – such as electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, and increased work-from-home practices – have reshaped residential electricity consumption and cost. However, their combined or synergistic impact on a household’s electricity cost remains unexplored. Leveraging data from the 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, this study uses a structural equation model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. Results indicate that adopting both EVs and PV reduces electricity costs by 31% despite a 16% rise in consumption. When combined with stay-at-home practices, households still experience a 13% cost reduction, even with a 25% increase in electricity consumption. In conclusion, these findings suggest that financial savings are not merely a byproduct of adopting new technologies or behavioral changes but could serve as a key consideration for household contemplating engagement with multiple modern energy solutions simultaneously.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Social Learning and Solar Photovoltaic Adoption

Growing literature points to the effectiveness of leveraging social interactions and nudges to spur adoption of prosocial behaviors. This study investigates a large-scale behavioral intervention designed to actively leverage social learning and peer interactions to encourage adoption of residential solar photovoltaic systems. Municipalities choose a solar installer offering group pricing and undertake an informational campaign driven by volunteer ambassadors. We find a causal treatment effect of 37 installations per municipality from the campaigns and no evidence of harvesting or persistence. The intervention also lowers installation prices. Randomized controlled trials based on the intervention show that selection into the program is important, whereas group pricing is not. Our results suggest that the program provided economies of scale and lowered consumer acquisition costs, leading to low-cost emission reductions. This paper was accepted by Matthew Shum, marketing.

Business & Economics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Evidence on Latency in a Fleet of Controllable Water Heaters

Demand response is an important emerging part of smart grids with wide coverage in theoretical and modeling research. However, experimental evidence on the real-life behavior of controllable loads is still limited. We present observations regarding latency and communication aspects of the operation on a fleet of residential water heaters in a smart neighborhood in Atlanta, GA. Our analysis shows that latency in water heaters is not constant and does not follow a Gaussian distribution. We also find that there is a systematic relationship between latency and hour of the day. Latency was found to increase during morning and evening hours compared to the afternoon. These findings could help better plan deployment of control for demand response programs. Understanding delays associated with controlling smart devices is crucial for proper design and algorithm development for optimization, frequency of dispatch, and override detection.

communication delay↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dataset for: Rooftop solar and energy storage programs can remediate energy-limiting behaviors of energy insecure households

Energy insecurity affects most low-income households in the United States. Energy insecurity, which is characterized by a household’s inability to afford their energy needs, often leads to risky choices, causing other forms of insecurity including food and health. Although there are government programs designed to provide relief to low-income households that face energy insecurity, eligibility for these programs is usually determined by household income, and those with incomes close to the threshold face uncertainty or may be left out. In many cases, these households turn to energy-limiting behaviors as a strategy to lower their electric utility bills. This paper explores the relationship between energy insecurity and energy-limiting behaviors to investigate alternative solutions that target the households that may fall out of available energy assistance programs. We explore the role of battery energy storage systems and rooftop solar photovoltaics in improving energy affordability. The results show that residential rooftop solar and behind-the-meter energy storage can offset two-thirds of the bill savings that households attain through energy-limiting behavior. Household renewable energy systems could complement existing energy assistance programs to provide long-term bill relief, enabling occupants to live in their homes with comfort and dignity. This dataset is intended to allow readers to reproduce and customize the analysis performed in this work to their benefit.

Kerby, Jessica [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2022

A multi-level load shape clustering and disaggregation approach to characterize patterns of energy consumption behavior

This study presents representative electrical load shapes, disaggregated to the end-use level, for over 5000 customer clusters across California’s residential, commercial, industrial and agricultural sectors. We developed a novel, multi-level load shape clustering approach for residential and commercial sectors leveraging interval meter data for over 350,000 California utility customers collected as a part of the Phase 4 California Demand Response (DR) Potential Study. The clustering approach allowed us to identify typical consumption patterns and categorize customers based on their daily load shape displayed throughout the year. For example, we were able to identify customers with particular energy technologies such as electric vehicles and rooftop solar, as well as building occupancy types such as restaurants, grocery stores and even unoccupied buildings, based solely on whole-building interval data. We then combined the load shape-based clusters with other customer information including building type, climate, geographical area, total consumption and low-income status, to create a set of customer clusters based on both demographics and usage patterns. Total cluster electricity demand was then disaggregated into a wide variety of end-uses using weather normalization and other publicly available end-use load shape datasets. The resulting disaggregated cluster load shapes will be released in anonymized form as part of the Phase 4 DR Potential Study. They will have wide-ranging applications in energy research and policy analysis, including estimation of energy efficiency (EE) and DR potential on the end-use level, time-dependent valuation of EE savings, building stock modeling, and developing customer targeting strategies for EE and DR programs.

Murthy, Samanvitha↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integration of Electric Vehicle Charging Loads in Residential Building Stock Energy Modeling

The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has resulted in significant new household electric loads that have the potential to change how energy costs are incurred by homeowners and the landscape of utility operations and energy infrastructure. Whereas adoption patterns and magnitudes of residential building and EV charging loads are influenced by distinct factors, the loads themselves are tightly coupled with the behavior of the individual occupants and EV owners.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

How does drought affect residential water demand and price elasticity?

Urban water scarcity is an important social and economic concern, particularly as the intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts is increasing in many regions. We consider whether drought induces changes to water demand and the price elasticity of demand for water that may last beyond a drought’s official end date. If drought shocks prompt long-term changes in water demand behavior, and these changes occur at broad geographic scale, they could have important implications for modeling adaptive responses to water scarcity. We assemble a novel dataset on residential water demand and pricing in the western United States to test empirically for effects of drought on water demand and price elasticity. We perform our analysis with aggregate quantity, price, and drought data, accounting for endogenous prices under increasing-block water tariffs and using both average and marginal water fees in estimating water demand functions. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that households may become less price-sensitive after exposure to drought. However, we find no systematic evidence of long-run, drought-related reductions in water demand, itself.

demand hardening↗

DOE OSTI2023

Anomaly detection for MPC forecast in Fleet of Water Heaters

Among residential devices, water heaters consume 20% of home energy use in the United States. Water heaters possess the capability to store energy within their reservoirs, enabling the ability to decouple energy use from hot water use. This capability can be used to reduce energy usage and costs while also supporting grid services. This requires accurate forecasting of the parameters of the water heater such as upper and lower temperatures. In this study, we analyzed the performance and behavior of a water heater model used in the real-world to predict a control mechanism that is implemented in a smart residential neighborhood. The model forecasts are accurate in most cases but not all. In such scenarios, error correction of the model is necessary to further improve model predictive control accuracy. Anomaly detection is the first step of error correction. This study complements existing research by grouping time series data into two clusters one with anomalies and another without anomalies. To achieve this task, we explored and compared multiple unsupervised machine learning algorithms to perform clustering. Among these algorithms, Ward clustering has the lowest running time and identified the highest number of anomalies for the upper temperature limit. The proposed approach is tested based on the data collected in a neighborhood with 46 townhomes located in Atlanta, GA.

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗

DOE OSTI2020

Closing the Loops on Solar Photovoltaics Modules: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for the Study of Circular Economy Strategies

Solar photovoltaics (PV) installed capacity have grown exponentially since the early 2000s (average annual growth rate of 50%). With 4,700 GW projected installed capacity by 2050, the volume of PV panels waste is also expected to become substantial. Though renewables are a sine qua non to the establishment of a truly circular economy (CE), the issue arising from their end-of-life management needs to be resolved. The management of PV end-of-life also represent a singular opportunity to create value, from recovered valuable, rare or critical materials (e.g. silver, tellurium, indium). Moreover, the PV case illustrates some of the current barriers to CE; for instance, the need for a common definition of waste (PV are defined as e-waste in the European Union but as general waste in the United States) and potential loss of innovations' advantages (PV average efficiency has continuously grown the past 10 years). In this study, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is proposed to simulate PV end-of-life management in the United States. The model explores how the decisions of the various actors involved in handling PV waste affect the quantities of PV that are reused, recycled, or land-filled. In the model, manufacturers, residential, and nonresidential PV owners, installers, and recyclers are represented by agents while governmental policies and regulations are treated as exogenous variables. PV-market data are used to define agents' characteristics (e.g., installed PV capacities or producing costs). Agents' decision rules draw on the literature related to industrial symbiosis (IS) and peoples' waste behaviors as they appear as the most widely used model to implement CE principles at a meso level. Specifically, the concepts of mutual trust between IS actors and knowledge about the IS philosophy are yielded to define the agents' decision process. The primary outputs of the ABM are the costs and volume of waste associated with each end-of-life pathway. Preliminaries results indicate recycling of residential PV is affected by the cost, perceived difficulty of recycling behaviors, and social norms. Moreover, the type of network connecting agents and the initial recycling rate strongly influence results. The model also highlights the crucial role of recycling behavior adoption: in case of early failure of PV, recycled volumes increase by about 40%. This represents an additional 5.7 billion USD from potential recovered silver. Finally, although results for the PV case are presented here, the developed ABM aims at being a general tool for the study of CE strategies and the CE transition. Furthermore, steps of this research include extending the model to encompass circular economy strategies (e.g., design for recycling or lifetime extension) and validating its general architecture from various case studies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

PV Inverter Testing for Momentary Cessation and Rate-of-Change-of-Frequency Events

To understand the power system stability and develop better electromagnetic transient (EMT) models of field deployed photovoltaic (PV) inverters, it is important to characterize inverters' response to abnormal voltage and frequency scenarios. Because EMT models are not typically available for small distribution-connected PV inverters, and because inerterconnection standards historically did not specify desired ride-through behaviors, we tested two such inverters in the lab to characterize their responses to severe undervoltage events and high rate-of-change-of-frequency (ROCOF) conditions. The inverters tested were pre-IEEE 1547-2018 residential PV inverters widely used in the Hawaiian Electric territory and many other areas. The testing results for undervoltage scenarios showed that the inverter from one vendor exhibited momentary cessation while the inverter from the other vendor did not exhibit momentary cessation behavior or tripping for most of the events below the 120 ms undervoltage trip threshold duration set by IEEE 1547-2003. The testing results for ROCOF scenarios showed that the inverter from one vendor temporarily lost synchronization during ROCOF conditions while the inverter from the other vendor did not lose synchronization or cease generation for any ROCOF conditions. Both the inverters were also tested for EMT-simulated grid events with severe changes in frequency and voltage. The observed responses of the inverters were different from the simulated response of PV inverters represented the best available assumptions from pre-existing information. The results from these experiments can be used to update the inverter models used in bulk power system studies.

aggregates↗

DOE OSTI2023

PV Inverter Testing for Momentary Cessation and Rate-of-Change-of-Frequency Events: Preprint

IEEE 1547 2018↗

DOE OSTI2022

What is the Right Size for a Residential Building Parcel Locker?

Common-carrier parcel lockers present a solution for decreasing delivery times, traffic congestion, and emissions in dense urban areas through consolidation of deliveries. Multi-story residential buildings with large number of residents, and thus a high volume of online package orders, are one of the best venues for installing parcel lockers. But what is the right size for a residential building locker that would suit the residents’ and building managers’ needs? Because of the novelty of parcel lockers, there is no clear guideline for determining the right locker size and configuration for a residential building given the resident population. A small locker would result in packages exceeding capacity and being left in the lobby, increasing the building manager’s workload and confusing and inconveniencing users. On the other hand, a large locker is more expensive, more difficult to install, and unappealing to residents. To answer this question, we installed a common-carrier parcel locker in a residential building in downtown Seattle, WA, U.S.A. Through collecting detailed data on locker usage from the locker provider company, we studied and quantified carriers’ delivery patterns and residents’ online shopping and package pickup behaviors. We then used this information to model the locker delivery and pickup process, and simulated several locker configurations to find the one that best suits the delivery needs of the building. These findings could aid urban planners and building managers in choosing the right size for residential building lockers that meet delivery demand while minimizing costs and contributing to environmental benefits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗