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DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reliability and Integrity Management Scoping Study

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is developing the regulatory framework and technical expertise to support regulatory review of advanced non-light water reactor (ANLWR) designs. The NRC staff expects most of these designs to use the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) Section XI, Division 2 “Requirements for Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) Programs for Nuclear Power Plants” for developing and implementing pre-service inspection (PSI) and in-service inspection (ISI) programs. The NRC recently endorsed ASME BPVC Section XI, Division 2 (BPV XI-2) in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.246. This new ASME code is yet to be used in any applications submitted for NRC review. This report provides an overview of the current state of knowledge and practices within the industry for the use of BPV XI-2 for the development and implementation of a PSI and ISI program for non-light water reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Compact and accurate chemical mechanism for methane pyrolysis with PAH growth

In this study, a reliable and compact chemical mechanism of gas-phase methane pyrolysis leading to formation of large polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) molecules has been developed. This model is designed for studies of carbon nanostructure synthesis such as carbon black and graphene flakes, including soot growth kinetics. Methane pyrolysis with carbon nanostructure synthesis is a two-stage process where conversion of CH 4 to C 2 H 2 precedes the growth of PAH molecules from acetylene. We present a single chemical mechanism that accurately describes both stages. We have constructed a compact and accurate chemical mechanism capable of modeling both stages of methane pyrolysis based on the ABF mechanism which was expanded with the most prominent reaction pathways from the mechanism by Tao for small PAH molecules and HACA pathways for larger PAH molecules, up to 37 aromatic rings. The resulting mechanism was validated through comparison to multiple available sets of experimental data. Good agreement with the experimental data for both processes was obtained. Performance of the mechanism was tested for pyrolysis of methane-rich mixtures under long residence times leading to abundant formation of PAH molecules. It is shown that the inclusion of larger PAH species (up to A37) in the chemical mechanism is important for accurate prediction of the fraction of carbon converted to PAH molecules and, correspondingly, the residual fraction of acetylene in the mixture. The mechanism file is available upon request.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Study on Conduction Cooling of Superconducting Magnets for the ILC Main Linac

In the main linac of the International Linear Collider (ILC), superconducting magnets for beam focusing and steering will be located periodically in superconducting RF (SRF) cavity string for beam acceleration in common cryomodules. A concept of conduction cooling of the combined-functioned, splittable superconducting magnets has been proposed and investigated to adapt much different features and to meet different requirements for the superconducting magnet and SRF cavity in fabrication, assembly, and operation. It is required to integrate the superconducting magnet after the SRF cavity string assembly which completed under an ultra-clean environment. The magnet must be conductively cooled down through thermal links to a liquid helium supply pipe. According to this concept, a model magnet development was carried out in cooperation with Fermilab and KEK, and has been demonstrated in KEK superconducting RF test facility (STF). In addition, an important issue has been recently identified. High gradient SRF cavities naturally emit field emission electron flux from the inner surface, so-called dark current. It may pass through the subsequent SRF cavity string and penetrate into the superconducting magnets placed downstream. It may heat up the superconducting coils, and may cause a quench. Therefore, further study on reliable conduction cooling and to secure the superconducting magnet operation with a keeping sufficient safety margin is quite essential. In this paper, we report the installation, the improvement achieved in STF, and the R&D progress in the study on the conduction cooling of the superconducting magnet for the ILC main linac.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Magnetism in EuAlSi and the Eu 1−𝑥 ⁢Sr 𝑥 ⁢ AlSi solid solution solid solution

The magnetic properties of EuAlSi, a compound comprising a honeycomb lattice of Al/Si atoms and a triangular lattice of Eu atoms, are presented. By means of single-crystal x-ray diffraction, we find that EuAlSi crystallizes in an AlB 2 -type structure with space group 𝑃⁢6/mmm and unit cell parameters 𝑎 = 4.2229⁢ (10) ⁢Å and 𝑐 = 4.5268 ⁢(12)⁢ Å. Our magnetic measurements indicate that EuAlSi is a soft ferromagnetic material with 𝑇 Curie = 25.8 K. The susceptibility follows the Curie-Weiss law at high temperatures, which allowed us to determine the paramagnetic Curie temperature 𝜃 𝑃 = 36.2 ⁢(1) ⁢K and an effective magnetic moment 𝜇 eff = 8.07 ⁢(1)⁢ µ 𝐵 /Eu. This value is in agreement with the theoretical value of 7.9 µ 𝐵 for Eu 2+ free ion. Moreover, we have prepared the Eu 1−𝑥 ⁢Sr 𝑥 ⁢ AlSi solid solution, where the atoms in the triangular lattice were systematically exchanged, in order to study the evolution of the collective quantum properties from the ferromagnetic EuAlSi toward the superconducting SrAlSi. Across the Eu 1−𝑥 ⁢Sr 𝑥 AlSi solid solution, the unit cell parameters change linearly, following Vegard’s law, and making the system reliable for studying composition dependence of the interplay between the crystal structure and physical properties. As the Sr content increases, i.e., 𝑥 increases, we note a consistent reduction of 𝜇 eff and 𝑇 Curie . Long-range magnetic order in Eu 1−𝑥 ⁢Sr 𝑥 ⁢ AlSi persists up to 𝑥 = 0.95, whereas superconductivity is only observed for samples with 𝑥 > 0.97.

Walicka, Dorota I. [University of Geneva (Switzerl↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Thin Film Core Technology: CIGS Final Technical Report (FTR)

Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 (CIGS) thin-film photovoltaics are a high-efficiency and reliable technology. This project completed research in two important areas and was designed to work collaboratively with industrial partners. Task 1: Alkali Science focused on alkali post-deposition treatments (PDT). PDTs have been instrumental in the dramatic voltage improvements that have moved CIGS device efficiencies from 20% to 23.35% [1]. Based on a survey of CIGS companies at the beginning of the project, the single biggest breakthrough for the CIGS community would be a mechanistic understanding of the role of alkalis in the material system. Significant accomplishments of Task 1: Alkali Science: 1) KF post-deposition treatments were shown to improve lifetime, open-circuit voltage (VOC), and efficiency of industrial partner samples, even when done as a later step, separate from the original CIGS deposition. 2) KF boosted efficiency when incorporated at the end of the third stage of NREL CIGS growth. 3) XPS characterization of CIGS surfaces with and without PDTs led to a proposed mechanism whereby K drives structural transformation at 350 degrees C that is locked in at room temperature even after K is rinsed away. 4) Published recipes for KF and RbF PDTs. Literature to date did not provide enough detail to quickly reproduce experimental results. 5) Identified most important parameters (RbF cell temperature and lamp setpoint temperature) and set boundaries for successful RbF PDTs. The purpose of Task 2: Cell-level Reliability was to overcome the largest challenges to investor confidence and long product lifetime in CIGS-based photovoltaic products: metastability, shading-induced hot spots, and potential-induced degradation (PID). Key findings were made in each of these areas by studying CIGS reliability at the cell level: 1) Published NREL's cell-level reliability testing procedures along with challenges that were encountered while developing them. These were also distributed to the community through an MRS conference presentation. 2) Decreased metastability by adding a CdS hole-injection layer between the CIGS and Zn(O,S) in the device stack. It also improved device performance. Materials other than CdS can be used for the same purpose. 3) Reduced front-glass PID by replacing soda-lime glass with low-Na borosilicate glass. 4) Found that PID depends on leakage current and light/electrical bias. This will help labs avoid test-specific degradation. 5) Discovered that CIGS can suffer from two different types of PID with different mechanisms. Front is slower and leads to shunting ZnO. Back is faster and degrades the p-n junction. 6) Holding cells at open circuit slows PID compared to short circuit. This affects testing protocols for glass/glass modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

NG-CT Peaker Upgrades with Bottoming Cycle: Preliminary Analysis

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has conducted a preliminary analysis exploring a significant opportunity to increase the nation's power grid capacity and reliability. The study focuses on retrofitting under-utilized natural gas combustion turbines (NG-CTs), often called "peaker" plants, with a bottoming cycle to capture waste heat and generate additional electricity. This analysis shows that upgrading these existing assets could add approximately 26,250 MW of new power capacity across the United States. A detailed study of the PJM Interconnection, the nation's largest grid operator, confirmed the benefits of these upgrades. Key findings for the PJM region include: - A median increase in the plants' capacity factor by 17 percentage points. - A projected 36.2% median reduction in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for the upgraded plants, with nearly 88% of them expected to break even. - An average reduction in the regional wholesale price of electricity by approximately 3.0% in the year 2030. - A significant boost to grid reliability, with a 46% reduction in projected Loss of Load Hours (LOLH). These findings suggest that retrofitting peaker plants is a promising and economically viable strategy to enhance grid performance, reduce electricity costs, and meet future demand without the challenges associated with building entirely new facilities.

bottoming cycle↗

DOE OSTI2021

Accounting for uncertainty in complex alluvial aquifer modeling by Bayesian multi-model approach

Alluvial aquifers by nature are complex caused by varied depositional environments. Developing a reliable groundwater model to represent an alluvial aquifer is non-trivial. Also, relying on a single best calibrated model may not be sufficient because of an inadequate choice of model parameter values. To better understand groundwater dynamics and improve model prediction reliability, this study presents a Bayesian multi-model uncertainty quantification (BMMUQ) framework to account for model parameter uncertainty in complex alluvial groundwater modeling. The methodology was applied to the agriculturally intensive Mississippi River alluvial aquifer (MRAA), Northeast Louisiana. An aquifer architecture was first constructed using 7,259 well logs in the MRAA area which covers three fluvial deposits (alluvium, braided-stream terrace, and braided-stream terrace-loess). A 12-layer MODFLOW model was then developed to address the alluvial aquifer complexity and well calibrated through a genetic algorithm. This study quantified model parameter uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and specific storage of sand facies. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was adopted to derive posterior model weights and head variances of 50 alternative conceptual groundwater flow models, and thereby obtains BMA ensemble model predictions instead of only relying on the best calibrated conceptual model. Overall, results show that an estimated around 950 million m3 of groundwater storage loss occurs in 2015 with respect to the beginning of 2004, due to high groundwater demand for irrigation in the MRAA area. Explicitly quantifying model uncertainty can produce more reliable groundwater level predictions from BMA ensemble model. The presented groundwater modeling framework improves our understanding of the MRAA and provides a valuable tool to assist agricultural water management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrated multimodel analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los Angeles

Climate change has prompted many communities to set targets for carbon-free power supplies, but they often lack data-driven strategies to achieve them. We present a comprehensive analysis of an entirely renewable electric power system that can maintain operating reliability and resource adequacy using detailed models of the city of Los Angeles power grid. In consultation with the operating utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and the local community, we develop four supply scenarios across three demand projections to analyze which types of infrastructure and operational changes would achieve reliable electricity at least cost. We find that a reliable, 100%-renewable power system yielding more than $1 billion annually in health and climate co-benefits is achievable. Solar can supply most future energy needs, while combustion turbines that use renewable, storable carbon-neutral fuels are key to maintaining reliability. This study provides a replicable methodology that other jurisdictions globally can follow.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Digital Twin for Reliability Assessment of DC/DC Buck Converter

In commercial applications, the operation of DC/DC converters significantly impacts overall system performance and long-term reliability. This study introduces a data-driven digital twin (DT) approach for estimating critical degradation parameters of DC/DC BUCK converter under steady-state condition. Initially, a circuit-level MATLAB/Simulink digital model (DM C ) is refined against a hardware prototype’s switching model dataset using offline particle swarm optimization. The optimized digital model’s steady-state response is then verified with its average model response while varying the duty and load. Subsequently, degradation profiles are imposed on the inductor, capacitor, MOSFET in the DMC. A large dataset is generated from this model, allowing training, validation, and testing of machine learning (ML) models for component health regression tasks. The proposed method employs random forest ML models, achieving impressive regression results with a squared R value as high as 0.99978 and a root mean square error of 4.2× 10 –6 . The method is further validated on a medium power level DC/DC BUCK prototype with varying load conditions, and includes the analysis of MOSFET’s on-resistance under degradation conditions. This data-driven DT method shows promise for identifying parasitic degradation and ohmic loss parameters, enhancing converter reliability assessments in a non-invasive, generalized, and computationally efficient manner.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intensifying Renewable Energy Droughts in the Western U.S. Amid Evolving Infrastructure and Climate

If renewable energy resources continue to become a larger part of the generation mix in the United States (U.S.), so does the potential impact of prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, known as variable renewable energy (VRE) droughts. In such a future, naturally occurring VRE droughts need to be evaluated for their potential impact on grid reliability. This study is the first of its kind to examine the impacts of compound VRE energy droughts in the Western U.S. across a range of potential future climate and infrastructure scenarios. We find that compound VRE drought severity may increase significantly in the future, primarily due to the dramatic increase in wind and solar generation needed in some future infrastructure scenarios. We find that in our future climate scenario, the variability of energy drought severity increases, which has implications for sizing energy storage necessary for mitigating drought events. We also examine the spatial patterns of compound VRE drought events that effect multiple regions of the grid simultaneously. These co-occurring events have distinct spatial patterns depending on the season. We observed overall fewer connected events in the future with the combined effect of potential climate and infrastructure changes, although in the fall we observe a climate-induced shift toward events which impact more regions simultaneously.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Effects Masked the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Electricity Demand in the United States

Shelter-in-place orders and business closures related to COVID-19 changed the hourly profile of electricity demand and created an unprecedented source of uncertainty for the grid. The potential for continued shifts in electricity profiles has implications for electricity sector investment and operating decisions that maintain reserve margins and provide grid reliability. This study reveals that understanding this uncertainty requires an understanding of the underlying drivers at the customer-class scale. This paper utilizes three datasets to compare the impacts of COVID-19 on electricity consumption across a range of spatiotemporal and customer scales. At the utility/customer-class scale, COVID-19-induced shutdowns in the spring of 2020 shifted weekday residential load profiles to resemble weekend profiles from previous years. Total commercial loads declined, but the commercial diurnal load profile was unchanged. With only total loads available at the balancing authority scale, the apparent impact of COVID-19 was smaller during the summer due in part to phased re-opening and spatial variability in re-opening, but there were still clear variations once total loads were broken down zonally. Monthly data at the state scale showed an increase in state-level residential electricity sales, a decrease in commercial sales, and a small net decrease in total sales in most states from April-August 2020. Analyses that focus on total load or a single scale may miss important changes that become apparent when the load is broken down regionally or by customer class.

COVID-19, electricity demand, multiscale, Commonwe↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life Cycle Inventory Availability: Status and Prospects for Leveraging New Technologies

The demand for life cycle assessments (LCA) is growing rapidly, which leads to an increasing demand of life cycle inventory (LCI) data. While the LCA community has made significant progress in developing LCI databases for diverse applications, challenges still need to be addressed. This perspective summarizes the current data gaps, transparency, and uncertainty aspects of existing LCI databases. Additionally, we survey and discuss novel techniques for LCI data generation, dissemination, and validation. We propose key future directions for LCI development efforts to address these challenges, including leveraging scientific and technical advances such as the Internet of Things (IoT), machine learning, and blockchain/cloud platforms. Adopting these advanced technologies can significantly improve the quality and accessibility of LCI data, thereby facilitating more accurate and reliable LCA studies.

blockchain platforms↗

DOE OSTI2025

GODEEEP-hydro: Historical and projected power system ready hydropower data for the United States

Hydropower is a critical electricity resource in the United States which, in addition to low-cost electricity generation, provides valuable ancillary grid services, and supports the integration of nondispatchable weather-dependent resources (e.g., wind and solar). Despite its value to the grid, there are very few comprehensive datasets available from which to study both historical and future impacts of climate, weather driven energy droughts, and integration of other weather driven generation. In this paper, we present a hydropower generation dataset covering 1,452 hydroelectric plants in the contiguous U.S. The dataset contains monthly and weekly hydropower generation estimates for both historical (1982–2019) and future (2020–2099) periods which includes 4 future climate scenarios. In addition, this dataset provides weekly and monthly constraints such as minimum and maximum power which are particularly useful in power system models which are used to study grid reliability, transmission planning and capacity expansion.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structure of iridium oxide catalysts dictates performance differences for proton exchange membrane water electrolyzers

Proton exchange membrane water electrolyzers (PEMWEs) are promising zero-emission technologies. However, their high cost remains a barrier to widespread adoption. Iridium oxide is commonly used as an oxygen evolution reaction (OER) catalyst, and its cost and scarcity make it essential to reduce its loading while increasing its activity. Evaluation of iridium oxide activity should be carried out in the membrane electrode assembly (MEA) configuration to replicate realistic operating conditions. Herein, we present a comprehensive benchmarking framework to accurately evaluate the amorphous and crystalline iridium oxides at the MEA level. By systematically varying the catalyst loading, this study confirmed that each MEA was utilized uniformly, presenting intrinsic electrochemical properties independent of the loading. Through intrinsic charge density determined by voltammetry, we established two electrochemical descriptors to evaluate catalyst redox reactions. The mass activity was evaluated by correlating current vs. loading, and the slope provides loading-independent mass activity. The effect of the porous transport layer on OER activity was discussed, identifying a ‘background’ current at zero-loading. In conclusion, this study highlights potential pitfalls in MEA-level catalyst screening and underscores the importance of the loading study for reliable results.

Kwon, Obeen [University of California, Irvine, CA ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Online charge measurement for petawatt laser-driven ion acceleration

Laser-driven ion beams have gained considerable attention for their potential use in multidisciplinary research and technology. Preclinical studies into their radiobiological effectiveness have established the prospect of using laser-driven ion beams for radiotherapy. In particular, research into the beneficial effects of ultrahigh instantaneous dose rates is enabled by the high ion bunch charge and uniquely short bunch lengths present for laser-driven ion beams. Such studies require reliable, online dosimetry methods to monitor the bunch charge for every laser shot to ensure that the prescribed dose is accurately applied to the biological sample. In this paper, we present the first successful use of an Integrating Current Transformer (ICT) for laser-driven ion accelerators. This is a noninvasive diagnostic to measure the charge of the accelerated ion bunch. It enables online estimates of the applied dose in radiobiological experiments and facilitates ion beam tuning, in particular, optimization of the laser ion source, and alignment of the proton transport beamline. We present the ICT implementation and the correlation with other diagnostics, such as radiochromic films, a Thomson parabola spectrometer, and a scintillator.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automating Traffic Microsimulation from SYNCHRO UTDF to SUMO

Modern transportation research relies on seamlessly integrating traffic signal data with robust network representation and simulation tools. This study presents utdf2gmns, an open-source Python tool that automates conversion of the Universal Traffic Data Format, including network representation, signalized intersections, and turning volumes into the General Modeling Network Specification (GMNS) Standard. The resulting GMNS-compliant network can be converted for microsimulation in SUMO. By automatically extracting intersection control parameters and aligning them with GMNS conventions, utdf2gmns minimizes manual preprocessing and data loss. utdf2gmns also integrates with the Sigma-X engine to extract and visualize key traffic control metrics, such as phasing diagrams, turning volumes, volume-tocapacity ratios, and control delays. This streamlined workflow enables efficient scenario testing, accurate model building, and consistent data management. Validated through case studies, utdf2gmns reliably models complex urban corridors, promoting reproducibility and standardization. Documentation is available on GitHub and PyPI, supporting easy integration and community engagement.

Luo, Roy [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000312909983)↗