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Measurement, estimation, and prediction of software reliability

Quantitative indices of software reliability are defined, and application of three important indices is indicated: (1) reliability measurement, (2) reliability estimation, and (3) reliability prediction. State of the art techniques for each of these procedures are presented together with considerations of data acquisition. Failure classifications and other documentation for comprehensive software reliability evaluation are described.

Hecht, H.

Using probabilistic analysis to assess the reliability of predicted SRB aft-skirt stresses

Probabilistic failure analysis is a tool to predict the reliability of a part or system. Probabalistic techniques were used to predict critical stresses which occur in the solid rocket booster aft-skirt during main engine buildup, immediately prior to lift-off. More than any other hold down post (HDP) load component, the Z loads are sensitive to variations in strains and calibration constants. Also, predicted aft-skirt stresses are strongly affected by HDP load variations. Therefore, the instrumented HDP are not effective load transducers for Z loads, and, when used with aft skirt stress indicator equations, yield estimates with large uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation proved to be a straight forward way of studying the overlapping effects of multiple parameters on predicted equipment performance. An advantage of probabilistic analysis is the degree of uncertainty of each parameter as stated explicitly by its probability distribution. It was noted, however, that the choice of parameter distribution had a large effect on the simulation results. Many times these distributions must be assumed. The engineer who is designing the part should be responsible for the choice of parameter distribution.

Richardson, James A.

TranAir applications to transonic flowfield predictions

Reliable methods for predicting external aircraft flowfields are required for airframe/engine and aircraft/store integrations, as well as for predicting store trajectories. Although Euler methods have demonstrated an impressive capability for predicting aircraft flowfields at all speed regimes, the need to generate a separate grid for any new or modified configuration make these methods impractical to use in a preliminary design environment. The PAN AIR and Nielsen programs are considerably easier to use, but are limited to the linear speed regime. The TranAir program uses PAN AIR type geometry inputs and works well in the transonic speed regime. It might be the technique of choice for predicting transonic aircraft flowfields. A study was made of the relative merits of Nielsen, PAN AIR and TranAir for predicting the transonic flowfield about the F-18 aircraft.

Cenko, A.

Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-Latitude Ionosphere-Basic Elements

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere is an important task of the Space Weather program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two main elements are a suitable geomagnetic activity index and coupling function -- the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity. The appropriate choice of these two elements is imperative for any reliable prediction model. The purpose of this work was to elaborate on these two elements -- the appropriate geomagnetic activity index and the coupling function -- and investigate the opportunity to improve the reliability of the prediction of geomagnetic activity and other events in the Earth's magnetosphere. The new polar magnetic index of geomagnetic activity and the new version of the coupling function lead to a significant increase in the reliability of predicting the geomagnetic activity and some key parameters, such as cross-polar cap voltage and total Joule heating in high-latitude ionosphere, which play a very important role in the development of geomagnetic and other activity in the Earth s magnetosphere, and are widely used as key input parameters in modeling magnetospheric, ionospheric, and thermospheric processes.

Lyatsky, W.

Probability approach for strength calculations

The use of probabilistic structural analysis methods (PSAM) to predict structural reliability is the subject of an on-going NASA research program. The elements of the new technology developed to date is reported. Applications of the developed software to structural problems are demonstrated for simple validation problems and for large scale application problems. On-going research to support component and system reliability predictions suitable for analytical certification of aerospace structures is briefly reviewed.

Chamis, Christos C.

Use of probabilistic design methods for NASA applications

This paper presents a reliability evaluation process designed to improve the reliability of advanced launch systems. The work performed includes the development of a reliability prediction methodology to be used in the design phase of the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME). This includes prediction techniques which use historical data bases as well as deterministic and probabilistic engineering models for predicting design reliability. In summary, this paper describes a probabilistic design approach for the next-generation liquid rocket engine, the STME.

Safie, Fayssal M.

Reliability analysis of composite structures

A probabilistic static stress analysis methodology has been developed to estimate the reliability of a composite structure. Closed form stress analysis methods are the primary analytical tools used in this methodology. These structural mechanics methods are used to identify independent variables whose variations significantly affect the performance of the structure. Once these variables are identified, scatter in their values is evaluated and statistically characterized. The scatter in applied loads and the structural parameters are then fitted to appropriate probabilistic distribution functions. Numerical integration techniques are applied to compute the structural reliability. The predicted reliability accounts for scatter due to variability in material strength, applied load, fabrication and assembly processes. The influence of structural geometry and mode of failure are also considerations in the evaluation. Example problems are given to illustrate various levels of analytical complexity.

Kan, Han-Pin

Structure and Early Soot Oxidation Properties of Laminar Diffusion Flames

Soot is an important unsolved problem of combustion science because it is present in most hydrocarbon-fueled flames and current understanding of the reactive and physical properties of soot in flame environments is limited. This lack of understanding affects progress toward developing reliable predictions of flame radiation properties, reliable predictions of flame pollutant emission properties and reliable methods of computational combustion, among others. Motivated by these observations, the present investigation extended past studies of soot formation in this laboratory, to consider soot oxidation in laminar diffusion flames using similar methods. Early work showed that O2 was responsible for soot oxidation in high temperature O2-rich environments. Subsequent work in high temperature flame environments having small O2 concentrations, however, showed that soot oxidation rates substantially exceeded estimates based on the classical O2 oxidation rates of Nagle and Strickland-Constable and suggests that radicals such as O and OH might be strong contributors to soot oxidation for such conditions. Neoh et al. subsequently made observations in premixed flames, supported by later work, that showed that OH was responsible for soot oxidation at these conditions with a very reasonable collision efficiency of 0.13. Subsequent studies in diffusion flames, however, were not in agreement with the premixed flame studies: they agreed that OH played a dominant role in soot oxidation in flames, but found collision efficiencies that varied with flame conditions and were not in good agreement with each other or with Neoh et al. One explanation for these discrepancies is that optical scattering and extinction properties were used to infer soot structure properties for the studies that have not been very successful for representing the optical properties of soot. Whatever the source of the problem, however, these differences among observations of soot oxidation in premixed and diffusion flames clearly must be resolved. Motivated by these findings, the present study undertook measurements of soot and flame properties within the soot oxidation region of some typical laminar diffusion flames and exploited the new measurements to identify soot oxidation mechanisms for these conditions. Present considerations were limited to the early stages of soot oxidation (carbon consumption less than 70%) where reactions at the surface of primary soot particles dominate the process, rather than the later stages when particle porosity and internal particle oxidation become important as discussed by Neoh et al.

El-Leathy, A. M.

The Importance of the Measurement of the Unsteady Wake of the Aeroassist Flight Experiment Vehicle: A White Paper

The High Frequency Radiometer (HFR) is the only instrument on the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) with sufficient temporal resolution to discern the frequency of unsteady wake oscillations. Determining both the frequency and amplitude of wake unsteadiness during AFE atmospheric entry is essential for reliably predicting the geometry and motion of the wake of future Aeroassisted Space Transfer Vehicles (ASTV). These parameters directly affect the location and size of the pay- load and the weight of the required afterbody heat protection. The purpose of the AFE is to validate the technologies required for the design of ASTVs, which will be used to exploit Earth-lunar space. This validation will be conducted at a combination of vehicle size, altitude, and velocity not obtainable in ground-based facilities. The AFE will provide the experimental flight data needed to improve our understanding of hypersonic-wake physics and to validate computational predictions of the aerodynamic and heating loads, including afterbody radiative heating loads, on an ASTV. Reliable prediction of ASTV wake flows will ensure that payloads are located within the shear-layer envelope and will determine the amount of thermal protection the payloads require. Specifically, understanding the temporal nature of the wake unsteadiness is important for two reasons. Most importantly, analysis of ground-based experiments suggests that wake unsteadiness results in a variation of as much as +/- 5 deg in the shear-flow turning angle. This angle must be reliably predicted to avoid shear-layer impingement on the vehicle afterbody, which would result in heating rates of about 10 W/sq cm, of the same order as on the forebody stagnation point. Secondly, the energy associated with wake unsteadiness will reduce the static enthalpy of the wake fluid and cause an error of as much as 30% in the amount of predicted wake radiative heating. Therefore, the HFR flight data, which will quantify the frequency and amplitude of the wake unsteadiness, are required for the verification of computational models of ASTV flowfields. Measurement of wake unsteadiness has been endorsed by the Peer Science Steering Group and the AFE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Working Group. The Peer Science Steering Group has stressed that a reliable measurement of the wake unsteadiness is fundamental because incorporating unsteadiness represents a substantial challenge to the CFD community, and a reliable measurement will raise confidence in the computer simulation. The AFE CFD Working Group has stated that 44 any data which would prove the existence and effects of unsteady flow would be extremely valuable.

Strawa, A. W.

Failure mode analysis to predict product reliability.

The failure mode analysis (FMA) is described as a design tool to predict and improve product reliability. The objectives of the failure mode analysis are presented as they influence component design, configuration selection, the product test program, the quality assurance plan, and engineering analysis priorities. The detailed mechanics of performing a failure mode analysis are discussed, including one suggested format. Some practical difficulties of implementation are indicated, drawn from experience with preparing FMAs on the nuclear rocket engine program.

Zemanick, P. P.

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

Basili, Victor R.

Automatic documentation system extension to multi-manufacturers' computers and to measure, improve, and predict software reliability

The DOMONIC system has been modified to run on the Univac 1108 and the CDC 6600 as well as the IBM 370 computer system. The DOMONIC monitor system has been implemented to gather data which can be used to optimize the DOMONIC system and to predict the reliability of software developed using DOMONIC. The areas of quality metrics, error characterization, program complexity, program testing, validation and verification are analyzed. A software reliability model for estimating program completion levels and one on which to base system acceptance have been developed. The DAVE system which performs flow analysis and error detection has been converted from the University of Colorado CDC 6400/6600 computer to the IBM 360/370 computer system for use with the DOMONIC system.

Simmons, D. B.

Combined effects of horizontal and vertical resolution on reliable turbulence prediction at tidal energy sites: A systematic study in the Salish Sea, WA

Predicting turbulence characteristics with coastal ocean models is essential for tidal energy converter deployment. While large eddy simulation provides a detailed turbulence representation, computational limitations restrict its use to smaller domains. We systematically evaluate whether well-configured coastal models can provide reliable turbulence prediction through progressive refinement of 3D model representation. We implemented four model configurations (Levels 1–4) using terrain-following coordinates, isolating the impacts of horizontal resolution, vertical resolution, and layer distribution. We validated all configurations against field measurements from the Salish Sea, WA. Results show that tidal current velocity predictions remain unchanged regarding model configuration, but turbulence properties are sensitive to resolution refinement. Increasing vertical resolution alone proved insufficient; even with vertical sigma-levels rising from 11 to 41, significant underprediction persisted until finer horizontal resolution better captured bathymetric variations. The Level 4 configuration, incorporating geometric sigma-levels distribution, achieved turbulence prediction skill scores exceeding 0.90. Turbulence closure comparison revealed Mellor- Yamada 2.5 outperformed k-epsilon in TKE prediction (skill scores 0.84–0.94 versus 0.72–0.81) due to better boundary layer parameterization. This study shows that well-configured coastal models effectively bridge the gap between simplified tools and costly high-fidelity modeling, offering the tidal energy industry practical and cost-effective turbulence data at commercially relevant scales.

Marine Energy

Predicting the Reliability of Ceramics Under Transient Loads and Temperatures With CARES/Life

A methodology is shown for predicting the time-dependent reliability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The methodology takes into account the changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e., changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. The code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Nemeth, Noel N.

Evaluation of ceramics for stator application: Gas turbine engine report

Current ceramic materials, component fabrication processes, and reliability prediction capability for ceramic stators in an automotive gas turbine engine environment are assessed. Simulated engine duty cycle testing of stators conducted at temperatures up to 1093 C is discussed. Materials evaluated are SiC and Si3N4 fabricated from two near-net-shape processes: slip casting and injection molding. Stators for durability cycle evaluation and test specimens for material property characterization, and reliability prediction model prepared to predict stator performance in the simulated engine environment are considered. The status and description of the work performed for the reliability prediction modeling, stator fabrication, material property characterization, and ceramic stator evaluation efforts are reported.

Trela, W.

Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-latitude Ionosphere

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere are important tasks of US Space Weather Program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method, and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two of the main elements of such prediction scheme are: an appropriate geomagnetic activity index, and an appropriate coupling function (the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity). We have developed a new index of geomagnetic activity, the Polar Magnetic (PM) index and an improved version of solar wind coupling function. PM index is similar to the existing polar cap PC index but it shows much better correlation with upstream solar wind/IMF data and other events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. We investigate the correlation of PM index with upstream solar wind/IMF data for 10 years (1995-2004) that include both low and high solar activity. We also have introduced a new prediction function for the predicting of cross-polar-cap voltage and Joule heating based on using both PM index and upstream solar wind/IMF data. As we show such prediction function significantly increase the reliability of prediction of these important parameters. The correlation coefficients between the actual and predicted values of these parameters are approx. 0.9 and higher.

Khazanov, George V.