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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Logarithmic Resilience Risk Metrics That Address the Huge Variations in Blackout Cost

Resilience risk metrics must address the customer cost of the largest blackouts of greatest impact. However, there are huge variations in blackout cost in observed distribution utility data that make it impractical to properly estimate the mean large blackout cost and the corresponding risk. These problems are caused by the heavy tail observed in the distribution of customer costs. To solve these problems, we propose resilience metrics that describe large blackout risk using the mean of the logarithm of the cost of large-cost blackouts, the slope index of the heavy tail, and the frequency of large-cost blackouts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resilience Analytics for Interdependent Power and Water Distribution Systems

The occurrence of large-scale outages in power distribution systems (PDSs) caused, for instance, by extreme weather events has raised concerns on the cascading impact of the power outages on the resilience of other critical infrastructures, including water distribution systems (WDSs), whose healthy operation highly relies on the availability of power from PDSs. Here, this paper proposes an analytics model for quantifying the interdependence between the resilience of power and water distribution systems. The proposed model first performs spatio-temporal outage analysis on the PDS and WDS to determine the PDS power serving capability and the resulting cascading impact on the WDS water serving capability during the occurrence of disruptions. The resilience interdependence is then determined by a proposed set of six metrics calculated using the power and water serving capability profiles, which trace and quantify the cascading impacts of power outages in the operation of WDSs during the degradation and recovery stages. The proposed analytics model is implemented on the IEEE 33-bus power distribution system supplying power for pumping stations of a 15-node test WDS, considering multiple cases of water storage capacity, single and multiple outage scenarios, and availability of distributed generation. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed metrics track the temporal and spatial interdependence between the resilience of power and water distribution systems, providing a mechanism to identify weak spots, and assess options to enhance the resilience of the critical water infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nuclear Data Impact on Key Metrics for a Representative Molten Chloride Fast Reactor Model

Nuclear data are an essential component of the foundation on which all modeling and simulation methods and tools are relying upon, from the front end to the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. In this study, the impact of uncertainties in nuclear data is investigated for a representative molten chloride fast reactor, for several important metrics, including eigenvalue, reactivity differences, and nuclide inventories in fuel at 5-yr irradiation. Uncertainty of keff for a full core model was found to be similar between the fresh fuel and the irradiated fuel states (1.7-1.8%), with its primary driver being the uncertainty in the 235U (n,γ) cross section. The results obtained for the reactivity differences show large uncertainties, of over 100%, in elastic scattering sensitivities of several nuclides, which led to large uncertainties of temperature reactivity differences for cladding and reflector. These results provide evidence that the currently applied methods may not be sufficiently adequate for ensuring the reliable determination of such metrics.

Procop, Germina [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000342226393)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measuring Success: A Refined Methodology for Estimating Long-term Continuous Improvement

Successful resource management systems require current and detailed feedback on operational and corporate-level performance. As corporate accountability concerns intensify, the precision and reliability of these performance metrics have become crucial. Traditional savings estimation methods can be difficult to understand, particularly linear regression, and can provide varying results. This paper reviews common efficiency metrics and highlights underlying mathematical inconsistencies when estimating total and percent savings with current methods. A refined approach to calculating long-term utility savings is proposed that simplifies current methodologies utilizing ratios to define an adjusted baseline, allowing for consistent and fair aggregation of results across multiple scales from resources to corporate performance. A simplified example demonstrates how the proposed methodology improves upon existing methods, especially in intermediate years. This paper’s major contributions are the simplified approach for converting modeled utility usage into estimated savings and the consistent roll-up methodology enabling more comparable, aggregable, and actionable results across scales.

Price, Chris [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000202007906)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Function-as-a-Service (FaaS) frameworks for the Accelerator Control System

As particle accelerator control systems evolve in complexity and scale, the need for responsive, scalable, and cost-effective computational infrastructure becomes increasingly critical. Function-as-a-Service (FaaS) offers an alternative to traditional monolithic architecture by enabling event-driven execution, automatic scaling, and fine-grained resource utilization. This paper explores the applicability and performance of FaaS frameworks in the context of a modern particle accelerator control system, with the objective of evaluating their suitability for short lived and triggered workloads. In this paper, we evaluate prominent open-source FaaS platforms in executing functional logic, triggers, and diagnostics routines. Evaluation metrics consist of cold-start latency, scalability, performance, integration with other open-source tools like Kafka. Experimental workloads were designed to simulate real-world control tasks when implemented as stateless FaaS functions. These workloads were benchmarked under various invocation loads and network conditions. Self-hosted FaaS platforms, when deployed within accelerator networks, offer greater control over execution environment, better integration with legacy systems, and support for real-time guarantees when paired with message queues. Based on lessons learned and evaluation metrics, this paper describes reliability of the FaaS framework for the Accelerator Control Systems (ACS).

Jaikar, A. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000332046217)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lower Snake River Dams Contribution to Grid Services

Hydroelectric generation and water storage have long been components of the clean energy mix, providing both reliable steady output and operational flexibility. As variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar increasingly replace traditional generation, the role of all flexible resources—including hydropower—in balancing supply and demand continues to evolve. This study examined the contribution of the Lower Snake River (LSR) Dam plants to Bonneville Power Administration grid services in maintaining power system reliability within the Western Interconnection. By analyzing publicly available data, the study evaluated various reliability services through performance metrics including energy capacity, balancing and ramping, voltage and reactive power support, frequency response, and transmission impact. Results indicated that the LSR plants deliver services as expected based on their size, contributing to the balancing process, ramping capabilities, and operational reserves, particularly during peak load conditions and weather events, while also providing measurable frequency and voltage support to the grid.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen and its Vital Role in a Clean Energy Future

Large-scale, low -cost hydrogen production can enable an economically competitive, secure, and environmentally beneficial future energy system across multiple sectors. Furthermore, clean hydrogen can address specific sectors that are hard to decarbonize (e.g., heavy-duty trucking, load-following electricity, iron, steel, and cement) and can help the U.S. meet the net zero carbon goal by 2050. To achieve this goal, tens of millions of metric tons of clean, reliable, and affordable hydrogen will be needed annually1. In 2021, the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot was launched, and its goal is to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen to $1 per $1 kilogram in 1 decade (1 1 1) 2. One very promising pathway for large-scale hydrogen production is water splitting. Water splitting technologies range from commercial technologies such as electrolyzers to approaches that are at a much earlier stage of development, such as photoelectrochemical (PEC) and thermochemical (TCH) processes. All these water splitting pathways offer diverse benefits in energy storage, grid services, and cross-sector emissions reductions while taking advantage of the diverse domestic resources. However, critical materials-, component- and system-level challenges must be addressed to improve efficiency and durability and reduce cost. To address these barriers and move these promising and high impact technologies forward, the HydroGEN Advanced Water Splitting Materials (AWSM) and the H2 from the Next-generation of Electrolyzers of Water (H2NEW) consortia were formed and supported by the Department of Energy (DOE) EERE Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO). HydroGEN (https://www.energy.gov/eere/h2awsm/) consortium, established in 2016, is an Energy Materials Network (EMN) that aims to accelerate the materials R&D of low technology readiness level (TRL) advanced water splitting (AWS) technologies. The consortium comprises five core national laboratories and focuses on four early-stage AWS pathways: alkaline exchange membrane (AEM) electrolysis, proton conducting solid oxide electrolysis (p-SOEC), photoelectrochemical, and thermochemical water splitting. Liquid alkaline and PEM electrolyzers are already commercial and significant advancements in oxygen conducting solid oxide electrolysis cells (o-SOECs) have been realized. Yet, these systems are still too expensive and not sufficiently durable for wide-scale commercialization. To enable high-volume manufacturing of affordable, durable, efficient electrolyzers, H2NEW (https://h2new.energy.gov/), another multi-lab consortium, was established in 2020. This comprehensive, concerted effort is focused on overcoming barriers related to components and materials integration and scale-up to achieve performance, durability, with an initial focus to achieve $2/kg H2 by 2026.

AEM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Q -score as a reliability measure for protein, nucleic acid and small-molecule atomic coordinate models derived from 3DEM maps

Atomic coordinate models are important for the interpretation of 3D maps produced with cryoEM and cryoET (3D electron microscopy; 3DEM). In addition to visual inspection of such maps and models, quantitative metrics can inform about the reliability of the atomic coordinates, in particular how well the model is supported by the experimentally determined 3DEM map. A recently introduced metric, Q-score, was shown to correlate well with the reported resolution of the map for well fitted models. Here, we present new statistical analyses of Q-score based on its application to ∼10 000 maps and models archived in the EMDB (Electron Microscopy Data Bank) and PDB (Protein Data Bank). Further, we introduce two new metrics based on Q-score to represent each map and model relative to all entries in the EMDB and those with similar resolution. We explore through illustrative examples of proteins, nucleic acids and small molecules how Q-scores can indicate whether the atomic coordinates are well fitted to 3DEM maps and also whether some parts of a map may be poorly resolved due to factors such as molecular flexibility, radiation damage and/or conformational heterogeneity. These examples and statistical analyses provide a basis for how Q-scores can be interpreted effectively in order to evaluate 3DEM maps and atomic coordinate models prior to publication and archiving.

B factors↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and testing of a performance evaluation methodology to assess the reliability of occupancy sensor systems in residential buildings

With the emergence of advanced occupancy sensor technologies to better detect occupancy in buildings, a universal methodology and metrics are required to evaluate and report sensor systems’ reliability and compare the performance across multiple sensor systems. Herein this research presents a methodology to assess the reliability of occupancy sensor systems in residential buildings in a controlled laboratory environment, including both “typical” and “failure” testing scenarios. The developed methodology was then implemented to evaluate a novel occupancy detection sensor system’s reliability. “Typical” testing evaluates the overall accuracy of the sensor system, which suggest how reliable the occupancy sensor system is over time. Results show that on average, the precision and recall are 0.75 and 0.70, indicating similar numbers of false positives and false negatives across the dataset. The overall accuracy of the tested sensor system was 62.4% to 76.4%. Failure testing results indicate whether there are influential variables impacting the sensor performance. For the tested sensor system, the number of occupants, presence of large objects, presence of interior light sources, and number of doors are not influential, while lighting level, location of occupants, additional door in the entry/exit area, and having the TV on are variables determined to impact the sensor system performance.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of pipe failure frequencies in the absence of operational experience data: A pilot study

Probabilistic failure metrics such as leak frequency and rupture frequency are commonly used to characterize piping reliability. The methodologies for calculating the failure metrics rely on a complex set of input parameters. Operating experience data and experimental data play an important role in informing the different input parameters. The paper describes results and conclusions of a coordinated research project to benchmark three different reliability models using a four-step procedure: reference case definition of relevance to advanced reactor designs, input parameter calibration, validation of results, and application of different methodologies upon completion of the calibration and validation steps. The reference case is a weld consisting of nickel-base alloy 152/52 and located within a primary pressure boundary of an advanced reactor. This alloy is a class of structural materials known to be highly resistant to stress corrosion cracking. Synergies between the different methods are noted and the importance of a multi-disciplinary approach to input parameter development is underscored. A key conclusion is that the three methods are equally suitable for estimating failure frequencies. In any specific application, a selection of the most practical or effective computational tool can be considered. The comparison of alternative models confirms and helps to gain confidence in the computed failure frequency estimates. The study was part of a coordinated research project organized by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Resource Adequacy and Community Impacts of an Evolving Grid: Considerations for State Regulators

As U.S. power systems continue to decarbonize, state regulators must be able to broadly assess the cost and reliability implications of proposed fossil retirements and the corresponding resources that are coming online to replace them. Specifically, regulators must evaluate whether proposed infrastructure investments are sufficient to ensure the long-term reliability of the system, while also protecting rate payers by ensuring that such investments are necessary and not excessive. Broadly speaking, this objective is typically framed in terms of maintaining long-term resource adequacy at the lowest cost, while also ensuring that other social and/or environmental objectives are satisfied. System planners currently have a host of sophisticated analytical tools at their disposal to evaluate the cost-benefit trade-offs of different approaches to ensuring resource adequacy. However, most of these tools and associated metrics were designed with traditional power systems in mind. Over the past decade, it has become increasingly clear that the metrics and models that have reliably assessed resource adequacy in systems dominated by large thermal and hydropower resources will be insufficient for systems with significant contributions from emerging technologies such as wind, solar and storage. Therefore, in recent years many new metrics and modeling approaches have been developed, and are increasingly being implemented, to meet the needs of the clean energy transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using an ontology-based framework

This study presents a methodology for automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using semantic modeling and Bayesian estimation. Semantic modeling techniques are used to represent the system components and their interactions, facilitating the automatic generation of a simulation model from dynamic component models. The proposed approach is applied to a case study of a ventilation system where a simulation model is generated, calibrated, and assessed through different performance metrics. These metrics demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of both model point estimates and probabilistic prediction intervals across all model outputs. Overall, the proposed methodology offers a systematic and automated approach to model development and calibration in building energy systems, with potential applications in building performance analysis, monitoring, and optimization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

A VOI Web Application for Distinct Geothermal Domains: Statistical Evaluation of Different Data Types within the Great Basin

The Great Basin region contains different domains that have different structural and hydrothermal flow patterns. Depending on the characteristics of these patterns, certain data types may be more successful at detecting hidden geothermal resources. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate if certain data types are more successful in certain domains. Given different aquifer, strain and structural conditions, we explore which data types statistically reveal positively labeled geothermal sites. We utilize value of information (VOI) metrics to help quantify the reliability of data types to discriminate against "positive" and "negative" labeled geothermal sites. We also evaluate how kernel density estimation can help generalize the statistics that inform VOI, which is necessary given the limited data in geothermal exploration. Except for the Carbonate Aquifer, the highest ranking of the Vimperfect is the Local Structural Setting. Next, the slip and dilation tendency is first for Carbonate Aquifer and second for Central Nevada Seismic Belt and Western Great Basin. For the Carbonate Aquifer, heat flow is has the lowest Vimperfect value compared to the other three domains, which is consistent with the understanding of how heat flow measurements are masked by regional groundwater flow.

Bayesian analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

State Spotlight on Resilience: The Michigan Public Service Commission and Data Informed Accountability

Resilience activities are an emerging area within regulatory utility policy. As resilience frameworks develop, many Public Utility Commissions (PUCs) are looking to initiate resilience activities and have identified enhancing grid reliability as a practical starting point. Reliability describes the grid’s ability to deliver electricity steadily and without interruptions under normal or “blue sky” conditions. Reliability is measured using industry standard metrics such as outage frequency (SAIFI) and outage duration (SAIDI). Resilience is broader, reflecting the grid’s ability to both withstand and recover from disruptions, particularly those caused by extreme events such as severe storms. A reliable grid minimizes routine disruptions; a resilient grid ensures the system can recover quickly when disruptions occur, preventing them from escalating into widespread or prolonged crises.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust Explanations using Diverse Adversarially Trained Ensembles, Multi-Modal Contrastive Learning, and Attribution-based Confidence Metrics

The primary objective of this project is to strengthen the trustworthiness of AI systems by designing algorithms that make their internal decision-making processes more understandable to human users. This involves creating clear, interpretable explanations for AI decisions and developing metrics to assess these explanations' validity and reliability. Significant progress has been achieved through (i) developing symbolic explanations, (ii) generating meaningful interpretive insights, (iii) establishing accuracy and confidence metrics, and (iv) devising methods to evaluate the knowledge boundaries of AI models. To date, the research findings have been shared in peer-reviewed publications, with accompanying scientific and technical information (STI) detailed below.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-driven prediction for accelerator magnet diagnostics to improve operation reliability

Reliability is one of the most critical metrics for accelerator operation, especially in user facilities. To reduce costly facility downtime and provide an operational environment where system performance can be reliably predicted in support of scientific studies, we are developing a model-driven approach for prediction and anomaly detection. Here, in this study, we present the application of a model-driven method that employs a linear regression model to predict the future temperature, in real time, of accelerator magnets at the NSLS-II light source. This approach enables proactive identification of magnet-heating issues, facilitating magnet flushing prior to the occurrence of permanent damage without interrupting machine operation. The implementation of this method in the NSLS-II control room is described and the analysis of the online results is presented. The results demonstrate the model’s effectiveness in providing early alerts to engineers and improving the reliability of accelerator operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A ductility metric for refractory-based multi-principal-element alloys

We propose a quantum-mechanical dimensionless metric, the local-lattice distortion (LLD), as a reliable predictor of ductility in refractory multi-principal-element alloys (RMPEAs). The LLD metric is based on electronegativity differences in localized chemical environments and combines atomic-scale displacements due to local lattice distortions with a weighted average of valence-electron count. To evaluate the effectiveness of this metric, we examined body-centered cubic (bcc) refractory alloys that exhibit ductile-to-brittle behavior. Our findings demonstrate that local-charge behavior can be tuned via composition to enhance ductility in RMPEAs. With finite-sized cell effects eliminated, the LLD metric accurately predicted the ductility of arbitrary alloys, which compares well with existing tensile-elongation experiments. To validate further, we qualitatively evaluated the ductility of two refractory RMPEAs, i.e., NbTaMoW and Mo 72 W 13 Ta 10 Ti 2.5 Zr 2.5 , through the observation of crack formation under indentation, again showing excellent agreement with LLD predictions. Additionally, a comparative study of three refractory alloys provides further insights into the electronic-structure origin of ductility in refractory RMPEAs. This proposed metric enables rapid and accurate assessment of ductility behavior in the vast RMPEA composition space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗