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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Hybrid rocket fuel combustion and regression rate study

The objectives of this study are to develop hybrid fuels (1) with higher regression rates and reduced dependence on fuel grain geometry and (2) that maximize potential specific impulse using low-cost materials. A hybrid slab window motor system was developed to screen candidate fuels - their combustion behavior and regression rate. Combustion behavior diagnostics consisted of video and high speed motion pictures coverage. The mean fuel regression rates were determined by before and after measurements of the fuel slabs. The fuel for this initial investigation consisted of hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene binder with coal and aluminum fillers. At low oxidizer flux levels (and corresponding fuel regression rates) the filled-binder fuels burn in a layered fashion, forming an aluminum containing binder/coal surface melt that, in turn, forms into filigrees or flakes that are stripped off by the crossflow. This melt process appears to diminish with increasing oxidizer flux level. Heat transfer by radiation is a significant contributor, producing the desired increase in magnitude and reduction in flow dependency (power law exponent) of the fuel regression rate.

Strand, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

External Tank Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) Prepress Regression Analysis Independent Review Technical Consultation Report

The request to conduct an independent review of regression models, developed for determining the expected Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) External Tank (ET)-04 cycle count for the Space Shuttle ET tanking process, was submitted to the NASA Engineering and Safety Center NESC on September 20, 2005. The NESC team performed an independent review of regression models documented in Prepress Regression Analysis, Tom Clark and Angela Krenn, 10/27/05. This consultation consisted of a peer review by statistical experts of the proposed regression models provided in the Prepress Regression Analysis. This document is the consultation's final report.

Parsons, Vickie s.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Regression Model Optimization for the Analysis of Experimental Data

A candidate math model search algorithm was developed at Ames Research Center that determines a recommended math model for the multivariate regression analysis of experimental data. The search algorithm is applicable to classical regression analysis problems as well as wind tunnel strain gage balance calibration analysis applications. The algorithm compares the predictive capability of different regression models using the standard deviation of the PRESS residuals of the responses as a search metric. This search metric is minimized during the search. Singular value decomposition is used during the search to reject math models that lead to a singular solution of the regression analysis problem. Two threshold dependent constraints are also applied. The first constraint rejects math models with insignificant terms. The second constraint rejects math models with near-linear dependencies between terms. The math term hierarchy rule may also be applied as an optional constraint during or after the candidate math model search. The final term selection of the recommended math model depends on the regressor and response values of the data set, the user s function class combination choice, the user s constraint selections, and the result of the search metric minimization. A frequently used regression analysis example from the literature is used to illustrate the application of the search algorithm to experimental data.

Ulbrich, N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Sting Balance Calibration Data Using Optimized Regression Models

Calibration data of a wind tunnel sting balance was processed using a candidate math model search algorithm that recommends an optimized regression model for the data analysis. During the calibration the normal force and the moment at the balance moment center were selected as independent calibration variables. The sting balance itself had two moment gages. Therefore, after analyzing the connection between calibration loads and gage outputs, it was decided to choose the difference and the sum of the gage outputs as the two responses that best describe the behavior of the balance. The math model search algorithm was applied to these two responses. An optimized regression model was obtained for each response. Classical strain gage balance load transformations and the equations of the deflection of a cantilever beam under load are used to show that the search algorithm s two optimized regression models are supported by a theoretical analysis of the relationship between the applied calibration loads and the measured gage outputs. The analysis of the sting balance calibration data set is a rare example of a situation when terms of a regression model of a balance can directly be derived from first principles of physics. In addition, it is interesting to note that the search algorithm recommended the correct regression model term combinations using only a set of statistical quality metrics that were applied to the experimental data during the algorithm s term selection process.

Ulbrich, N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimization of Regression Models of Experimental Data Using Confirmation Points

A new search metric is discussed that may be used to better assess the predictive capability of different math term combinations during the optimization of a regression model of experimental data. The new search metric can be determined for each tested math term combination if the given experimental data set is split into two subsets. The first subset consists of data points that are only used to determine the coefficients of the regression model. The second subset consists of confirmation points that are exclusively used to test the regression model. The new search metric value is assigned after comparing two values that describe the quality of the fit of each subset. The first value is the standard deviation of the PRESS residuals of the data points. The second value is the standard deviation of the response residuals of the confirmation points. The greater of the two values is used as the new search metric value. This choice guarantees that both standard deviations are always less or equal to the value that is used during the optimization. Experimental data from the calibration of a wind tunnel strain-gage balance is used to illustrate the application of the new search metric. The new search metric ultimately generates an optimized regression model that was already tested at regression model independent confirmation points before it is ever used to predict an unknown response from a set of regressors.

Ulbrich, N.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Study of Rapid-Regression Liquefying Hybrid Rocket Fuels

A report describes experiments directed toward the development of paraffin-based hybrid rocket fuels that burn at regression rates greater than those of conventional hybrid rocket fuels like hydroxyl-terminated butadiene. The basic approach followed in this development is to use materials such that a hydrodynamically unstable liquid layer forms on the melting surface of a burning fuel body. Entrainment of droplets from the liquid/gas interface can substantially increase the rate of fuel mass transfer, leading to surface regression faster than can be achieved using conventional fuels. The higher regression rate eliminates the need for the complex multi-port grain structures of conventional solid rocket fuels, making it possible to obtain acceptable performance from single-port structures. The high-regression-rate fuels contain no toxic or otherwise hazardous components and can be shipped commercially as non-hazardous commodities. Among the experiments performed on these fuels were scale-up tests using gaseous oxygen. The data from these tests were found to agree with data from small-scale, low-pressure and low-mass-flux laboratory tests and to confirm the expectation that these fuels would burn at high regression rates, chamber pressures, and mass fluxes representative of full-scale rocket motors.

Zilliac, Greg↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analysis of Multivariate Experimental Data Using A Simplified Regression Model Search Algorithm

A new regression model search algorithm was developed that may be applied to both general multivariate experimental data sets and wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The algorithm is a simplified version of a more complex algorithm that was originally developed for the NASA Ames Balance Calibration Laboratory. The new algorithm performs regression model term reduction to prevent overfitting of data. It has the advantage that it needs only about one tenth of the original algorithm's CPU time for the completion of a regression model search. In addition, extensive testing showed that the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the simplified algorithm is similar to the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the original algorithm. The simplified algorithm, however, cannot guarantee that search constraints related to a set of statistical quality requirements are always satisfied in the optimized regression model. Therefore, the simplified algorithm is not intended to replace the original algorithm. Instead, it may be used to generate an alternate optimized regression model of experimental data whenever the application of the original search algorithm fails or requires too much CPU time. Data from a machine calibration of NASA's MK40 force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new search algorithm.

Ulbrich, Norbert M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of a Traditional Regression Model Term Selection Process for Balance Calibration Data Sets

Key elements of a traditional regression model term selection process for the analysis of wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data are discussed. The traditional process is sometimes applied when regression models of the gage outputs are needed and an analyst does not have access to a term selection algorithm. In principle, the traditional process identifies supported regression model terms of a gage output by combining an analyst's subject- matter knowledge with a visual examination of selected plots of the calibration loads. Twelve empirical rules are listed that may be used to select regression model terms. Data from the manual calibration of a force balance is used to illustrate the application of the traditional term selection process. The data example shows that the traditional process can become very complex. Its successful application highly depends on an analyst's experience and skills. Therefore, it is suggested to replace the traditional term selection process with an automated term selection algorithm. Then, objective metrics are systematically applied during the term selection that make the identification of the regression model more repeatable and less dependent on an analyst's personal skills.

strain-gage balance↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large-Scale Inference of Multivariate Regression for Heavy-Tailed and Asymmetric Data

Large-scale multivariate regression is a fundamental statistical tool with a wide range of applications. Here, this study considers the problem of simultaneously testing a large number of general linear hypotheses, encompassing covariate-effect analysis, analysis of variance, and model comparisons. The challenge that accompanies a large number of tests is the ubiquitous presence of heavy-tailed and/or highly skewed measurement noise, which is the main reason for the failure of conventional least squares-based methods. For large-scale multivariate regression, we develop a set of robust inference methods to explore data features such as heavy tailedness and skewness, which are not visible to least squares methods. The new testing procedure is based on the data-adaptive Huber regression and a new covariance estimator of regression estimates. Under mild conditions, we show that our methods produce consistent estimates of the false discovery proportion. Extensive numerical experiments and an empirical study on quantitative linguistics demonstrate the advantage of the proposed method over many state-of-the-art methods when the data are generated from heavy-tailed and/or skewed distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

SRBench++: Principled Benchmarking of Symbolic Regression With Domain-Expert Interpretation

Symbolic regression searches for analytic expressions that accurately describe studied phenomena. The main promise of this approach is that it may return an interpretable model that can be insightful to users, while maintaining high accuracy. The current standard for benchmarking these algorithms is SRBench, which evaluates methods on hundreds of datasets that are a mix of real-world and simulated processes spanning multiple domains. At present, the ability of SRBench to evaluate interpretability is limited to measuring the size of expressions on real-world data, and the exactness of model forms on synthetic data. In practice, model size is only one of many factors used by subject experts to determine how interpretable a model truly is. Furthermore, SRBench does not characterize algorithm performance on specific, challenging sub-tasks of regression such as feature selection and evasion of local minima. In this work, we propose and evaluate an approach to benchmarking SR algorithms that addresses these limitations of SRBench by 1) incorporating expert evaluations of interpretability on a domain-specific task, and 2) evaluating algorithms over distinct properties of data science tasks. We evaluate 12 modern symbolic regression algorithms on these benchmarks and present an in-depth analysis of the results, discuss current challenges of symbolic regression algorithms and highlight possible improvements for the benchmark itself.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analysis of Multivariate Experimental Data Using A Simplified Regression Model Search Algorithm

A new regression model search algorithm was developed in 2011 that may be used to analyze both general multivariate experimental data sets and wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The new algorithm is a simplified version of a more complex search algorithm that was originally developed at the NASA Ames Balance Calibration Laboratory. The new algorithm has the advantage that it needs only about one tenth of the original algorithm's CPU time for the completion of a search. In addition, extensive testing showed that the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the simplified algorithm is similar to the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the original algorithm. The simplified algorithm, however, cannot guarantee that search constraints related to a set of statistical quality requirements are always satisfied in the optimized regression models. Therefore, the simplified search algorithm is not intended to replace the original search algorithm. Instead, it may be used to generate an alternate optimized regression model of experimental data whenever the application of the original search algorithm either fails or requires too much CPU time. Data from a machine calibration of NASA's MK40 force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new regression model search algorithm.

multivariate experimental data↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating county-level lung cancer incidence from environmental radiation exposure, PM 2.5 , and other exposures with regression and machine learning models

Characterizing the interplay between exposures shaping the human exposome is vital for uncovering the etiology of complex diseases. For example, cancer risk is modified by a range of multifactorial external environmental exposures. Environmental, socioeconomic, and lifestyle factors all shape lung cancer risk. However, epidemiological studies of radon aimed at identifying populations at high risk for lung cancer often fail to consider multiple exposures simultaneously. For example, moderating factors, such as PM 2.5 , may affect the transport of radon progeny to lung tissue. This ecological analysis leveraged a population-level dataset from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results data (2013–17) to simultaneously investigate the effect of multiple sources of low-dose radiation (gross γ activity and indoor radon) and PM 2.5 on lung cancer incidence rates in the USA. County-level factors (environmental, sociodemographic, lifestyle) were controlled for, and Poisson regression and random forest models were used to assess the association between radon exposure and lung and bronchus cancer incidence rates. Tree-based machine learning (ML) method perform better than traditional regression: Poisson regression: 6.29/7.13 (mean absolute percentage error, MAPE), 12.70/12.77 (root mean square error, RMSE); Poisson random forest regression: 1.22/1.16 (MAPE), 8.01/8.15 (RMSE). The effect of PM 2.5 increased with the concentration of environmental radon, thereby confirming findings from previous studies that investigated the possible synergistic effect of radon and PM 2.5 on health outcomes. In summary, the results demonstrated (1) a need to consider multiple environmental exposures when assessing radon exposure’s association with lung cancer risk, thereby highlighting (1) the importance of an exposomics framework and (2) that employing ML models may capture the complex interplay between environmental exposures and health, as in the case of indoor radon exposure and lung cancer incidence.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian projection pursuit regression

In projection pursuit regression (PPR), a univariate response variable is approximated by the sum of $M$ “ridge functions,” which are flexible functions of one-dimensional projections of a multivariate input variable. Traditionally, optimization routines are used to choose the projection directions and ridge functions via a sequential algorithm, and $M$ is typically chosen via cross-validation. Here, we introduce a novel Bayesian version of PPR, which has the benefit of accurate uncertainty quantification. To infer appropriate projection directions and ridge functions, we apply novel adaptations of methods used for the single ridge function case ($M$=1), called the Bayesian Single Index Model; and use a Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to infer the number of ridge functions $M$. We evaluate the predictive ability of our model in 20 simulated scenarios and for 23 real datasets, in a bake-off against an array of state-of-the-art regression methods. Finally, we generalize this methodology and demonstrate the ability to accurately model multivariate response variables. Its effective performance indicates that Bayesian Projection Pursuit Regression is a valuable addition to the existing regression toolbox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Classification and regression models of audio and vibration signals for machine state monitoring in precision machining systems

Here we present a data-driven method for monitoring machine status in manufacturing processes. Audio and vibration data from precision machining are used for inference in two operating scenarios: (a) variable machine health states (anomaly detection); and (b) settings of machine operation (state estimation). Audio and vibration signals are first processed through Fast Fourier Transform and Principal Component Analysis to extract transformed and informative features. These features are then used in the training of classification and regression models for machine state monitoring. Specifically, three classifiers (K-nearest neighbors, convolutional neural networks and support vector machines) and two regressors (support vector regression and neural network regression) were explored, in terms of their accuracy in machine state prediction. It is shown that the audio and vibration signals are sufficiently rich in information about the machine that 100% state classification accuracy could be accomplished. Data fusion was also explored, showing overall superior accuracy of data-driven regression models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A regression algorithm for accelerated lattice QCD that exploits sparse inference on the D-Wave quantum annealer

We propose a regression algorithm that utilizes a learned dictionary optimized for sparse inference on a D-Wave quantum annealer. In this regression algorithm, we concatenate the independent and dependent variables as a combined vector, and encode the high-order correlations between them into a dictionary optimized for sparse reconstruction. On a test dataset, the dependent variable is initialized to its average value and then a sparse reconstruction of the combined vector is obtained in which the dependent variable is typically shifted closer to its true value, as in a standard inpainting or denoising task. Here, a quantum annealer, which can presumably exploit a fully entangled initial state to better explore the complex energy landscape, is used to solve the highly non-convex sparse coding optimization problem. The regression algorithm is demonstrated for a lattice quantum chromodynamics simulation data using a D-Wave 2000Q quantum annealer and good prediction performance is achieved. The regression test is performed using six different values for the number of fully connected logical qubits, between 20 and 64. The scaling results indicate that a larger number of qubits gives better prediction accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Provably Accurate Randomized Sampling Algorithm for Logistic Regression

In statistics and machine learning, logistic regression is a widely-used supervised learning technique primarily employed for binary classification tasks. When the number of observations greatly exceeds the number of predictor variables, we present a simple, randomized sampling-based algorithm for logistic regression problem that guarantees high-quality approximations to both the estimated probabilities and the overall discrepancy of the model. Our analysis builds upon two simple structural conditions that boil down to randomized matrix multiplication, a fundamental and well-understood primitive of randomized numerical linear algebra. We analyze the properties of estimated probabilities of logistic regression when leverage scores are used to sample observations, and prove that accurate approximations can be achieved with a sample whose size is much smaller than the total number of observations. To further validate our theoretical findings, we conduct comprehensive empirical evaluations. Overall, our work sheds light on the potential of using randomized sampling approaches to efficiently approximate the estimated probabilities in logistic regression, offering a practical and computationally efficient solution for large-scale datasets.

Chowdhury, Agniva↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regression Convolutional Neural Network for Energy Estimation in NOvA

Regression Convolutional Neural Network for Energy Estimation in NOvA" Abstract: "NOvA (NuMI Off-Axis $\nu_e$ Appearance) is a long baseline neutrino experiment designed to measure neutrino oscillations over a distance of 810 km. NOvA employs a near and far detector to observe $\nu_\mu$ disappearance and $\nu_e$ appearance of neutrinos produced by the NuMI beam at Fermilab. Energy reconstruction is critical for precise measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters and cross sections, which are functions of neutrino energy. Energy estimation remains difficult due to the complexity of detector response and final state particle kinematics. We present a regression-based convolutional neural network (CNN) method that reconstructs neutrino and lepton energies based on raw pixel inputs for NOvA. The trained model is able to reconstruct event energy for different interaction modes and complex final states containing leptons and hadrons. Studies of regression CNN networks show improved energy resolution and reduced sensitivity to calibration scale uncertainties relative to traditional kinematics-based energy reconstruction techniques. The results demonstrate the potential of the regression CNN method for neutrino physics analyses by improving on standard kinematics-based reconstruction.

Zhao, Larry [UC, Irvine (main)]↗
NASA NTRS1972

An improved multiple linear regression and data analysis computer program package

NEWRAP, an improved version of a previous multiple linear regression program called RAPIER, CREDUC, and CRSPLT, allows for a complete regression analysis including cross plots of the independent and dependent variables, correlation coefficients, regression coefficients, analysis of variance tables, t-statistics and their probability levels, rejection of independent variables, plots of residuals against the independent and dependent variables, and a canonical reduction of quadratic response functions useful in optimum seeking experimentation. A major improvement over RAPIER is that all regression calculations are done in double precision arithmetic.

Sidik, S. M.↗