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NASA NTRS1995

Ion Acoustic Wave Frequencies and Onset Times During Type 3 Solar Radio Bursts

Conflicting interpretations exist for the low-frequency ion acoustic (S) waves often observed by ISEE 3 in association with intense Langmuir (L) waves in the source regions of type III solar radio bursts near 1 AU. Two indirect lines of observational evidence, as well as plasma theory, suggest they are produced by the electrostatic (ES) decay L yields L(PRIME) + S. However, contrary to theoretical predictions, an existing analysis of the wave frequencies instead favors the electromagnetic (EM) decays L yields T + S, where T denotes an EM wave near the plasma frequency. This conflict is addressed here by comparing the observed wave frequencies and onset times with theoretical predictions for the ES and EM decays, calculated using the time-variable electron beam and magnetic field orientation data, rather than the nominal values used previously. Field orientation effects and beam speed variations are shown analytically to produce factor-of-three effects, greater than the difference in wave frequencies predicted for the ES and EM decays; effects of similar magnitude occur in the events analyzed here. The S-wave signals are extracted by hand from a sawtooth noise background, greatly improving the association between S waves and intense L waves. Very good agreement exists between the time-varying predictions for the ES decay and the frequencies of most (but not all) wave bursts. The waves occur only after the ES decay becomes kinematically allowed, which is consistent with the ES decay proceeding and producing most of the observed signals. Good agreement exists between the EM decay's predictions and a significant fraction of the S-wave observations while the EM decay is kinematically allowed. The wave data are not consistent, however, with the EM decay being the dominant nonlinear process. Often the observed waves are sufficiently broadband to overlap simultaneously the frequency ranges predicted for the ES and EM decays. Coupling the dominance of the ES decay with this frequency overlap provides support for a previous suggestion that fundamental emission occurs when the EM decay is stimulated by the ES decay product waves. The periods in which the ES and EM decays produce observable S waves are consistent with the observed and (independently) predicted times of fundamental and harmonic radio emission. This supports interpretation of fundamental emission as stimulated EM decay and harmonic emission as the coalescence L + L(prime) yields T of beam-generated L waves and L(prime) waves produced by the ES decay, where T denotes an electromagnetic wave at twice the plasma frequency. Analysis of the electron beam data reveals that the time-varying beam speed is consistent with ballistic beam propagation with minimal energy loss, implying that the beam propagates in a state close to time- and volume-averaged marginal stability. This confirms a central tenet of the stochastic growth theory for type III bursts.

Cairns, Iver H.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Nasa GEOS Model for Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Predictions: The Major Teleconnections, Tropical Cyclone Activity, and ENSO

Ability of the NASA GEOS seasonal prediction model system (the latest version) in predicting the large-scale teleconnections, tropical cyclone (TC) activity, and ENSO are validated. The major large-scale teleconnections include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) that span vast geographical area across the North Pacific/Atlantic and North America. Predictive skill of TC activity is assessed by Genesis potential index (GPI). Anomaly correlations are greater than 0.5 for winter teleconnections at up to 2 month lead and for the first four month (June- July-August-September) GPIs over the North Atlantic and the Western Pacific. Correlation for the long-range prediction of the ENSO (Nino3.4 SST) maturity reaches 0.9 at 6 month lead and 0.8 at 9 month lead.

Lim, Young-Kwon↗

NASA NTRS1992

Earth rotation parameters from an on-site study of laser ranging data

A multi-faceted effort was maintained to achieve the following goals: (1) provide for state-of-the-art, on-site, near-real-time Earth orientation parameter determinations at levels of precision and accuracy commensurate with a 'quick-look' type of an analysis, using the lunar laser ranging (LLR) data type from the McDonald Laser Ranging Station (MLRS) and other LLR facilities around the world; (2) create a state-of-the-art, highly transportable, LLR-based Earth orientation solution package, which could be easily implemented at LLR facilities other than the MLRS; (3) accommodate, within the routine MLRS lunar range prediction and Earth orientation data analysis software packages, the standard set of Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Solar System ephemerides, lunar librations, and Solar System partial derivatives; and (4) examine, wherever possible, opportunities for the performance of state-of-the-art, on-site, joint, simultaneous, quick-look analysis for Earth orientation parameters, using both MLRS lunar and LAGEOS (and, perhaps, Etalon) ranging observations, as well as from multiple LLR station observations. Excellent results were obtained at all levels of effort and it can be said that all of these goals were attained. The reader is referred to the complete series of our semi-annual reports for a full description of our efforts.

Shelus, Peter J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Investigating Extreme Events in the NASA GEOS Multiscale Modeling System

Advances in computing capabilities and scientific development have come together to evolve general circulation models into multi-scale Earth system modeling tools. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model is one such example of this evolution. The GEOS model is driven by the finite-volume cubed-sphere (FV3) non-hydrostatic dynamical core. Surrounding FV3 is a scale-aware physics package and data assimilation capability permitting multi-scale application of GEOS for sub-seasonal to seasonal climate prediction, medium range weather prediction, and global mesoscale modeling at convection allowing resolutions. GEOS also includes a comprehensive chemistry package representing a range of capabilities from basic chemistry and interactve aerosols and gaseous species, to carbon emissions and uptake, and complex ozone photochemistry. In this study, we apply the GEOS model to study the fidelity of these processes with increasing horizontal resolution and scale-aware processes in GEOS on extreme events. The GEOS model is run for 40-days beginning in August 2016 at three uniform global resolutions of 13-km (c768), 6-km (c1536) and 3-km (c3072) with 72 vertical levels up to 0.01mb. The model physics use the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme to dynamically reduce the role of parameterized deep convection as resolved scale processes in the model take over at higher resolutions. We will include high-resolution global emissions and fluxes of aerosols and carbon downscaled from recent satellite observations. We will compare these simulations with reanalyses and observations, focusing on rainfall, clouds and radiative forcing at hourly to monthly timescales. We will closely examine the probability distribution of precipitation intensities and radiative properties of clouds on a daily time scale. In addition, we will focus on extreme events, in particular the diurnal cycle of convection over the US and the frequency and physical nature of organized convection and heavy rain events across the globe.

Putman, William↗

NASA NTRS1988

Electron heating in superhigh Mach number shocks

Fluid and MHD models, as well as direct extrapolation of the earth's bow shock measurements in the high Mach number (HMN) range to the superhigh Mach number (SHMN) range predict that the downstream electron pressure is only a negligible fraction of the Rankine-Hugoniot downstream pressure. Following Alfven, plasma physics experimental-theoretical data combined with magnetospheric observations were used to probe the physics of the SHMN shocks. It is shown that inclusion of proper plasma physics considerations in the interaction of the reflected and transmitted ions and the electrons at the 'foot' of the shock leads to the surprising result that electron heating can dominate in the SHNM range. A stationary model of the shock structure is derived and shown to be the result of extrapolation of the high Mach number shock physics wiht incorporation of collective interactions at the foot.

Papadopoulos, K.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

Roads, John↗

NASA NTRS2011

Axisymmetric Calculations of a Low-Boom Inlet in a Supersonic Wind Tunnel

This paper describes axisymmetric CFD predictions made of a supersonic low-boom inlet with a facility diffuser, cold pipe, and mass flow plug within wind tunnel walls, and compares the CFD calculations with the experimental data. The inlet was designed for use on a small supersonic aircraft that would cruise at Mach 1.6, with a Mach number over the wing of 1.7. The inlet was tested in the 8-ft by 6-ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel at NASA Glenn Research Center in the fall of 2010 to demonstrate the performance and stability of a practical flight design that included a novel bypass duct. The inlet design is discussed here briefly. Prior to the test, CFD calculations were made to predict the performance of the inlet and its associated wind tunnel hardware, and to estimate flow areas needed to throttle the inlet. The calculations were done with the Wind-US CFD code and are described in detail. After the test, comparisons were made between computed and measured shock patterns, total pressure recoveries, and centerline pressures. The results showed that the dual-stream inlet had excellent performance, with capture ratios near one, a peak core total pressure recovery of 96 percent, and a large stable operating range. Predicted core recovery agreed well with the experiment but predicted bypass recovery and maximum capture ratio were high. Calculations of offdesign performance of the inlet along a flight profile agreed well with measurements and previous calculations.

Chima, Rodrick V.↗

NASA NTRS1990

ADRPM-VII applied to the long-range acoustic detection problem

An acoustic detection range prediction model (ADRPM-VII) has been written for IBM PC/AT machines running on the MS-DOS operating system. The software allows the user to predict detection distances of ground combat vehicles and their associated targets when they are involved in quasi-military settings. The program can also calculate individual attenuation losses due to spherical spreading, atmospheric absorption, ground reflection and atmospheric refraction due to temperature and wind gradients while varying parameters effecting the source-receiver problem. The purpose here is to examine the strengths and limitations of ADRPM-VII by modeling the losses due to atmospheric refraction and ground absorption, commonly known as excess attenuation, when applied to the long range detection problem for distances greater than 3 kilometers.

Shalis, Edward↗

NASA NTRS1961

Analysis of X-15 Landing Approach and Flare Characteristics Determined from the First 30 Flights

The approach and flare maneuvers for the first 30 flights of the X-15 airplane and the various control problems encountered are discussed. The results afford a relatively good cross section of landing conditions that might be experienced with future glide vehicles having low lift-drag ratios. Flight-derived drag data show that preflight predictions based on wind-tunnel tests were, in general, somewhat higher than the values measured in flight. Depending on configuration, the peak lift-drag ratios from flight varied from 3.5 to 4.5 as compared with a predicted range of from 3.0 to 4.2. By employing overhead, spiral-type patterns beginning at altitudes as high as 40,000 feet, the pilots were consistently able to touch down within about +/-1,000 feet of a designated point. A typical flare was initiated at a "comfortable" altitude of about 800 feet and an indicated airspeed of approximately 300 knots., which allowed a margin of excess speed. The flap and gear were extended when the flare was essentially completed, and an average touchdown was accomplished at a speed of about 185 knots indicated airspeed, an angle of attack of about 7 deg, and a rate of descent of about 4 feet per second. In general, the approach and landing characteristics were predicted with good accuracy in extensive preflight simulations. F-104 airplanes which simulated the X-15 landing characteristics were particularly valuable for pilot training.

Matranga, Gene J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impacts of NASA's Earth Observations on Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasts

NASA's suite of Earth-observing satellites provides a unique view of many processes on Earth, with relevance on timescales ranging from hours to weeks and even years. NASA's observations span all parts of the Earth system: atmospheric, ocean, land and cryosphere, and include physical, chemical and biological components. This presentation explores use of NASA observations in extended-range prediction, from many days to months, using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) assimilation and predictive modeling capabilities. The skill of a weather forecast is linked to the fidelity of the initialization process (data assimilation) and the realistic representation of "fast" physical processes in the model. At longer time horizons, the slower "feedback" processes in the Earth System begin to take a more prominent role in the accuracy of the forecast. Simultaneously, forecast-skill attribution transitions away from feature-based metrics that emphasize smaller scales (e.g., representations of fronts and vortices) to metrics that emphasize the statistical distributions of large-scale features (e.g., ENSO diagnostics and teleconnections). This presentation will summarize studies performed using the GEOS-S2S (subseasonal to seasonal) system that explore the impacts of NASA observations on the fidelity of the forecasts. The GEOS-S2S system is configured for the atmosphere-ocean-land-ice model and is initialized using in-situ and space-based observations, including atmospheric aerosols and ozone which are not typically analyzed in such systems. The GEOS-S2S model routinely includes aerosol feedbacks, which systematically impact the realism of the forecasts, providing a first example of how suitable NASA observations impact the performance of the GEOS-S2S system. Studies in which a stratospheric chemistry module is activated in the GEOS-S2S system allow the impacts of ozone radiative feedbacks to be isolated. Space-based observations of sea-surface temperature and altimetry are routinely analyzed for the initialization of the GEOS-S2S system; recent advances allow the use of NASA's sea-surface salinity data, which are shown to impact the long-range skill of the forecasts.

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRS1971

Thermal scale modeling

Complex system study data indicate that factors associated with multilayer insulation pose major problem in scale modeling, that numerical analysis aids correction for known compromises of scaling criteria, and that probable errors in scale modeling experiments fall within range predicted by statistical analysis.

Mac Gregor, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Emission calculations for a scramjet powered hypersonic transport

Calculations of exhaust emissions from a scramjet powered hypersonic transport burning hydrogen fuel were performed over a range of Mach numbers of 5 to 12 to provide input data for wake mixing calculations and forecasts of future levels of pollutants in the stratosphere. The calculations were performed utilizing a one-dimensional chemical kinetics computer program for the combustor and exhaust nozzle of a fixed geometry dual-mode scramjet engine. Inlet conditions to the combustor and engine size was based on a vehicle of 227,000 kg (500,000 lb) gross take of weight with engines sized for Mach 8 cruise. Nitric oxide emissions were very high for stoichiometric engine operation but for Mach 6 cruise at reduced equivalence ratio are in the range predicted for an advanced supersonic transport. Combustor designs which utilize fuel staging and rapid expansion to minimize residence time at high combustion temperatures were found to be effective in preventing nitric oxide formation from reaching equilibrium concentrations.

Lezberg, E. A.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Atmospheric response to variations in sea surface temperature

An extended range prediction experiment was performed with the GISS atmospheric model on a global data to test the sensitivity of the model to sea surface temperature (SST) variation over a two-week forecast period. The use of an initial observed SST field in place of the climatological monthly mean sea temperatures for surface flux calculations in the model was found to have a significant effect on the predicted precipitation over the ocean, with enhanced convection computed over areas where moderately large warm SST anomalies are found. However, there was no detectable positive effect of the SST anomaly field on forecast quality. The influence of the SST anomalies on the daily predicted fields of pressure and geopotential is relatively insignificant up to about one week compared with the growth of prediction error, and is no greater over a two-week period than that resulting from random errors in the initial meteorological state. The 14-day average fields of sea level pressure and 500-mb height predicted by the model, appear to be similarly insensitive to anomalies of sea surface temperature.

Spar, J.↗

NASA NTRS1977

The anti-tail of Comet Bradfield /1975p/

The predicted antitail of Comet Bradfield 1975p was observed photographically on January 3, 1976. The predicted range for the antitail's orientation is fully consistent with the observation, which indicates that the detectable production of millimeter- and submillimeter-sized dust grains commenced at heliocentric distances between 1.1 and 1.3 AU before perihelion (early November 1975). The photograph also shows the ordinary tail and an extremely faint glow connecting the two tails and spanning an approximately 165-deg sector of the sky to the west of the comet. This glow is due to a continuous emission of dust from the comet during the month of December.

Sekanina, Z.↗

NASA NTRS1978

An orbital service module systems concept

An Orbital Service Module (OSM) system represents a concept for an evolutionary program that will provide utilities services such as electrical power, heat rejection, attitude control, and communications to support payload operations in both Shuttle-tended and untended (free-flyer) modes. The initial program step is a Space Transportation System (STS) power extension package (a solar array system carried by the Orbiter and deployed by the remote manipulator system). The power extension package (PEP) develops the major components of the more sophisticated OSM vehicles. Major objectives of such an approach are (1) the continuous matching of a capability to meet real needs while avoiding the pitfalls usually associated with the uncertainties inherent in long-range prediction of future requirements, and (2) the economies attendant with program continuity and hardware commonality. The initial Orbiter-carried PEP and several later OSM system growth options are discussed.

Craig, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Forecasts of geomagnetic activity by Ottawa Magnetic Observatory: Their reliabilty and application

A 27 day forecast of geomagnetic activity based on the forecasts from two locations is presented. To evaluate the reliability of the forecasts, the predicted activity was compared with the actual geomagnetic activity at five geomagnetic observatories located in different magnetic zones: Ottawa (57.0N, 351.5E); Meanook (61.8N, 301.0E); Fort Churchill (68.8N, 322.5E); Cambridge Bay (76.7N, 294.0E); and Resolute Bay (83.1N, 287.7E). Results indicate that the percentage of correct predictions varies with the geomagnetic latitude of the observatory used for comparison. The percentage is on the average highest for lower latitude stations and lowest for the northern stations. The number of incorrect predictions ranges from 4.7% for Ottawa to 8.4% for Churchill.

Hruska, J.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Ultraviolet observations of close binary stars

Far ultraviolet observation of three interacting binary stars (HR 2142, HR 7084, and lambda Tauri) made with the Copernicus satellite during 1978-79 are presented. All stars exhibit evidence of a gas stream and extensive mass outflow from the system. Physical parameters, derived for the gas stream in HR 2142, are essentially within the range predicted from theoretical calculations.

Polidan, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Open-loop nanosecond-synchronization for wideband satellite communications

A synchronization technique for use with an onboard processing satellite communication system is discussed. The satellite oscillator is used both as the system time reference and as the frequency source for all downlink carriers and data clocks. Downlink timing is established at each system earth terminal through a combination of carrier and data-clock tracking and a downlink timing epoch signal consisting of one bit per TDMA data burst. Uplink timing is established by an open-loop range prediction process using precision ephemerides calculated and distributed by the central control station. Overall timing accuracy of the uplink signal at the satellite receiver of + or - 7 nanoseconds permits unambiguous identification of each data bit position in a 128 Mbps TDMA burst. This is accomplished by means of simple, inexpensive terminal hardware using available crystal oscillators for time/frequency references and digital synthesis techniques that may be implemented in digital LSI chips.

Holmes, W. M., Jr.↗