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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

Predictability of quasi-geostrophic planetary waves in global and hemispheric domains

Factors which affect the long term predictability, and also the feasibility of defining an ultimate level of weather predictability, are discussed. It is noted that current models yield a one week forecast at the best. Long range predictability, however, is a restriction on the knowledge of evolutive processes of the atmosphere, and does not characterize the prediction of specific atmospheric quantities. The influences of local phenomena such as cyclones and other nonlinear processes can cause planetary waves which affect the predictability of weather everywhere. It is suggested that any successful prediction model will necessarily account for the evolution of ultralong waves. Although significant differences in predictions have been found between hemispheric and global predictions, the location of the errors in extrapolating the hemispheric to the global scale have been identified.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Crossflow-vortex instability and transition on a 45 deg swept wing

A crossflow vortex experiment on a 45 deg swept wing is currently being conducted in the Arizona State University Unsteady Wind Tunnel. The experimental apparatus is designed to produce crossflow-dominated transition by simulating infinite swept wing flow using contoured end liners in a closed throat wind tunnel. Stationary fixed-wavelength crossflow vortices are observed at several chord Reynolds numbers. The vortex wavelength which is fixed for a given Reynolds number varies with Reynolds number approximately as predicted by linear stability theory, but with the predicted wavelengths about 30 percent larger than the observed wavelengths. Travelling waves are observed both in the frequency range predicted by linear stability theory and at higher frequencies. These higher frequency waves may be harmonics of the primary crossflow waves generated by a nonlinear parametric resonance phenomena.

Dagenhart, J. Ray↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extremely massive disc galaxies in the nearby Universe form through gas-rich minor mergers

ABSTRACT In our hierarchical structure-formation paradigm, the observed morphological evolution of massive galaxies – from rotationally supported discs to dispersion-dominated spheroids – is largely explained via galaxy merging. However, since mergers are likely to destroy discs, and the most massive galaxies have the richest merger histories, it is surprising that any discs exist at all at the highest stellar masses. Recent theoretical work by our group has used a cosmological, hydrodynamical simulation to suggest that extremely massive (M* > 1011.4 M⊙) discs form primarily via minor mergers between spheroids and gas-rich satellites, which create new rotational stellar components and leave discs as remnants. Here, we use UV-optical and H i data of massive galaxies, from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Galaxy Evolution Explorer, Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey (DECaLS), and Arecibo Legacy Fast ALFA surveys, to test these theoretical predictions. Observed massive discs account for ∼13 per cent of massive galaxies, in good agreement with theory (∼11 per cent). ∼64 per cent of the observed massive discs exhibit tidal features, which are likely to indicate recent minor mergers, in the deep DECaLS images (compared to ∼60 per cent in their simulated counterparts). The incidence of these features is at least four times higher than in low-mass discs, suggesting that, as predicted, minor mergers play a significant (and outsized) role in the formation of these systems. The empirical star formation rates agree well with theoretical predictions and, for a small galaxy sample with H i detections, the H i masses and fractions are consistent with the range predicted by the simulation. The good agreement between theory and observations indicates that extremely massive discs are indeed remnants of recent minor mergers between spheroids and gas-rich satellites.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1997

Possible Evidence for Relativistic Shocks in Gamma-Ray Bursts

Relativistic shock models of gamma-ray bursts may be tested by comparing their predicted low-energy asymptotic spectral indices s to observations. Synchrotron radiation theory predicts that the instantaneous spectrum has s = 1/3, and the spectrum integrated over the radiative decay of the electrons' energies has s = 1/2 with other cases lying between these limits. We examine the spectra of 11 bursts obtained by the Large Area Detectors on BATSE. One agrees with the predicted instantaneous spectrum, as does the initial portion of a second, and three are close to the predicted integrated spectrum. All of the observed asymptotic spectral slopes lie in the predicted range. This evidence for relativistic shocks is independent of detailed models of bursts and of assumptions about their distances. Radiation observed with the predicted instantaneous spectrum has a comparatively smooth time dependence, consistent with the necessarily long radiation time, while radiation observed with the predicted integrated spectrum has a spiky time dependence, consistent with the necessarily short radiation time.

Cohen, E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Reliability Analysis in the Presence of Aleatory Uncertainty

This paper proposes a method for modeling a system’s response using data. In contrast to approaches that identify a limit state function, we focus on the case in which not all uncertain parameters affecting the response are observable and the measured response is corrupted by noise. To this end, the system response is not characterized by a limit state function but instead by a Random Predictor Model (RPM) having a nonparametric structure. Consequently, the resulting failure probability is not a scalar but a random variable. This variable accounts for the aleatory contributions of the model-form uncertainty and the measurement noise into the response. Furthermore, we propose a framework that enables trading off the predicted range of failure probabilities resulting from such an analysis with a measure of risk. In this context, risk is the percentage of all predicted outcomes the analyst is willing to ignore. The reliability analysis of an aeroelastic structure subject to flutter is used to illustrate the ideas proposed.

Crespo, L. G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-range vehicle speed prediction using vehicle connectivity for enhanced energy efficiency of vehicles

An integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data mining and real-time V2I communications for CAVs. The present framework provides multi-horizon speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The present multi-horizon speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs) as a case study. The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the present data mining strategy over long prediction horizons. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAV speed predictions, the vehicle level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal-driving and conventional BTM strategy.

Amini, Mohammad Reza↗
NASA NTRS1993

On identified predictive control

Self-tuning control algorithms are potential successors to manually tuned PID controllers traditionally used in process control applications. A very attractive design method for self-tuning controllers, which has been developed over recent years, is the long-range predictive control (LRPC). The success of LRPC is due to its effectiveness with plants of unknown order and dead-time which may be simultaneously nonminimum phase and unstable or have multiple lightly damped poles (as in the case of flexible structures or flexible robot arms). LRPC is a receding horizon strategy and can be, in general terms, summarized as follows. Using assumed long-range (or multi-step) cost function the optimal control law is found in terms of unknown parameters of the predictor model of the process, current input-output sequence, and future reference signal sequence. The common approach is to assume that the input-output process model is known or separately identified and then to find the parameters of the predictor model. Once these are known, the optimal control law determines control signal at the current time t which is applied at the process input and the whole procedure is repeated at the next time instant. Most of the recent research in this field is apparently centered around the LRPC formulation developed by Clarke et al., known as generalized predictive control (GPC). GPC uses ARIMAX/CARIMA model of the process in its input-output formulation. In this paper, the GPC formulation is used but the process predictor model is derived from the state space formulation of the ARIMAX model and is directly identified over the receding horizon, i.e., using current input-output sequence. The underlying technique in the design of identified predictive control (IPC) algorithm is the identification algorithm of observer/Kalman filter Markov parameters developed by Juang et al. at NASA Langley Research Center and successfully applied to identification of flexible structures.

Bialasiewicz, Jan T.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Jet Noise Modeling for Suppressed and Unsuppressed Aircraft in Simulated Flight

This document describes the development of further extensions and improvements to the jet noise model developed by Modern Technologies Corporation (MTC) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The noise component extraction and correlation approach, first used successfully by MTC in developing a noise prediction model for two-dimensional mixer ejector (2DME) nozzles under the High Speed Research (HSR) Program, has been applied to dual-stream nozzles, then extended and improved in earlier tasks under this contract. Under Task 6, the coannular jet noise model was formulated and calibrated with limited scale model data, mainly at high bypass ratio, including a limited-range prediction of the effects of mixing-enhancement nozzle-exit chevrons on jet noise. Under Task 9 this model was extended to a wider range of conditions, particularly those appropriate for a Supersonic Business Jet, with an improvement in simulated flight effects modeling and generalization of the suppressor model. In the present task further comparisons are made over a still wider range of conditions from more test facilities. The model is also further generalized to cover single-stream nozzles of otherwise similar configuration. So the evolution of this prediction/analysis/correlation approach has been in a sense backward, from the complex to the simple; but from this approach a very robust capability is emerging. Also from these studies, some observations emerge relative to theoretical considerations. The purpose of this task is to develop an analytical, semi-empirical jet noise prediction method applicable to takeoff, sideline and approach noise of subsonic and supersonic cruise aircraft over a wide size range. The product of this task is an even more consistent and robust model for the Footprint/Radius (FOOTPR) code than even the Task 9 model. The model is validated for a wider range of cases and statistically quantified for the various reference facilities. The possible role of facility effects will thus be documented. Although the comparisons that can be accomplished within the limited resources of this task are not comprehensive, they provide a broad enough sampling to enable NASA to make an informed decision on how much further effort should be expended on such comparisons. The improved finalized model is incorporated into the FOOTPR code. MTC has also supported the adaptation of this code for incorporation in NASA s Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP).

Stone, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

CWAM↗
NASA NTRS1994

Computational modelling of Er(3+): Garnet laser materials

The Er(3+) ion has attracted a lot of interest for four reasons: (1) Its (4)I(sub 13/2) yields (4)I(sub 15/2) transition lases in the eyesafe region near 1.5 micron; (2) the (4)I(sub 13/2) transition lases near 2.8 micron, an important wavelength for surgical purposes; (3) it displays surprisingly efficient upconversion with lasing observed at 1.7, 1.2, 0.85, 0.56, 0.55, and 0.47 micron following 1.5 micron pumping; and (4) it has absorption bands at 0.96 and 0.81 micron and thus can be diode pumped. However, properties desirable for upconversion reduce the efficiency of 1.5 and 3 micron laser operation and vice versa. Since all of the processes are influenced by the host via the crystal field induced stark splittings in the Er levels, this project undertook modelling of the host influence on the Er lasinng behavior. While growth and measurement of all ten Er(3+) doped garnets is the surest way of identifying hosts which maximize upconversion (or conversly, 1.5 and 3 micron performance), it is also expensive - costing approximately $10,000/material or approximately $100,000 for the materials computationally investigated here. The calculations were performed using a quantum mechanical point charge model developed by Clyde Morrison at Harry Diamond Laboratories. The programs were used to fit the Er:YAG experimental energy levels so that the crystal field parameters, B(sub nm) could be extracted. From these radial factors, rho (sub n) were determined for Er(3+) in garnets. These, in combination with crystal field components, Anm, available from X-ray data, were used to predict energy levels for Er in the other nine garnet hosts. The levels in Er:YAG were fit with an rms error of 12.2/cm over a 22,000/cm range. Predicted levels for two other garnets for which literature values were available had rms errors of less than 17/cm , showing the calculations to be reliable. Based on resonances between pairs of calculated stark levels, the model predicts GSGG as the best host for 1.5 micron laser operation, GSGG or YSAG as the best host for a 2.8 micron operation, and LuGG as the best host for an upconversion material.

Spangler, Lee H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Effects of atmospheric variations on acoustic system performance

Acoustic propagation over medium to long ranges in the atmosphere is subject to many complex, interacting effects. Of particular interest at this point is modeling low frequency (less than 500 Hz) propagation for the purpose of predicting ranges and bearing accuracies at which acoustic sources can be detected. A simple means of estimating how much of the received signal power propagated directly from the source to the receiver and how much was received by turbulent scattering was developed. The correlations between the propagation mechanism and detection thresholds, beamformer bearing estimation accuracies, and beamformer processing gain of passive acoustic signal detection systems were explored.

Nation, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1979

Assessment and preliminary design of an energy buffer for regenerative braking in electric vehicles

Energy buffer systems, capable of storing the vehicle energy during braking and reusing this stored energy during acceleration, were examined. Some of these buffer systems when incorporated in an electric vehicle would result in an improvement in the performance and range under stop and go driving conditions. Buffer systems considered included flywheels, hydropneumatic, pneumatic, spring, and regenerative braking. Buffer ranking and rating criteria were established. Buffer systems were rated based on predicted range improvements, consumer acceptance, driveability, safety, reliability and durability, and initial and life cycle costs. A hydropneumatic buffer system was selected.

Buchholz, R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Entry, Descent, and Landing Performance of the Mars Phoenix Lander

On May 25, 2008, the Mars Phoenix Lander successfully landed on the northern arctic plains of Mars. An overview of a preliminary reconstruction analysis performed on each entry, descent, and landing phase to assess the performance of Phoenix as it descended is presented and a comparison to pre-entry predictions is provided. The landing occurred 21 km further downrange than the predicted landing location. Analysis of the flight data revealed that the primary cause of Phoenix s downrange landing was a higher trim total angle of attack during the hypersonic phase of the entry, which resulted in Phoenix flying a slightly lifting trajectory. The cause of this higher trim attitude is not known at this time. Parachute deployment was 6.4 s later than prediction. This later deployment time was within the variations expected and is consistent with a lifting trajectory. The parachute deployment and inflation process occurred as expected with no anomalies identified. The subsequent parachute descent and powered terminal landing also behaved as expected. A preliminary reconstruction of the landing day atmospheric density profile was found to be lower than the best apriori prediction, ranging from a few percent less to a maximum of 8%. A comparison of the flight reconstructed trajectory parameters shows that the actual Phoenix entry, descent, and landing was close to pre-entry predictions. This reconstruction investigation is currently ongoing and the results to date are in the process of being refined.

Desai, Prasun N.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 2

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean, the variance, and the range of the model's parameter, thus of the output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, is bounded rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining reference standard strength for neutron-irradiated reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steel F82H by Bayesian method

The deterministic approach widely adopted in the design of structural components relies on systematically defined design limits using empirically determined safety factors. However, this approach is not always appropriate because structures are subjected to a variety of loads in the practical environment, which may result in excessively conservative design limits. In recent years, a more rigorous probabilistic approach that incorporates material strength distributions has become an important solution. In the probabilistic approach, the probability density functions of material strength properties underpin the design criteria. Here, the objective of this study is to identify the density distribution functions that best describe tensile properties of irradiated F82H to define a reference strength for DEMO design. Due to the limited number of existing data, this study specifically employs a Bayesian prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulations to determine a material reference value with statistical reliability and to investigate its effectiveness. For example, the dependence of tensile properties of 300 °C irradiated materials on irradiation damage and the range predicted by 95% Bayesian estimation was evaluated. As a statistical model for the dose dependence of statistical parameters, the normal distribution exhibited a better fit for 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, whereas the distribution of total elongation data gave comparable reference values for both the normal and Weibull distribution models. Both models gave comparable criteria for the distribution of total elongation data. The Weibull model also gave better results for uniform elongation. The function best describing the model was a logarithmic law for both 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, while a power law for both total and uniform elongation, which allowed for more comprehensive data prediction of irradiation data with statistical accuracy for DEMO reactor design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS1995

Ion Acoustic Wave Frequencies and Onset Times During Type 3 Solar Radio Bursts

Conflicting interpretations exist for the low-frequency ion acoustic (S) waves often observed by ISEE 3 in association with intense Langmuir (L) waves in the source regions of type III solar radio bursts near 1 AU. Two indirect lines of observational evidence, as well as plasma theory, suggest they are produced by the electrostatic (ES) decay L yields L(PRIME) + S. However, contrary to theoretical predictions, an existing analysis of the wave frequencies instead favors the electromagnetic (EM) decays L yields T + S, where T denotes an EM wave near the plasma frequency. This conflict is addressed here by comparing the observed wave frequencies and onset times with theoretical predictions for the ES and EM decays, calculated using the time-variable electron beam and magnetic field orientation data, rather than the nominal values used previously. Field orientation effects and beam speed variations are shown analytically to produce factor-of-three effects, greater than the difference in wave frequencies predicted for the ES and EM decays; effects of similar magnitude occur in the events analyzed here. The S-wave signals are extracted by hand from a sawtooth noise background, greatly improving the association between S waves and intense L waves. Very good agreement exists between the time-varying predictions for the ES decay and the frequencies of most (but not all) wave bursts. The waves occur only after the ES decay becomes kinematically allowed, which is consistent with the ES decay proceeding and producing most of the observed signals. Good agreement exists between the EM decay's predictions and a significant fraction of the S-wave observations while the EM decay is kinematically allowed. The wave data are not consistent, however, with the EM decay being the dominant nonlinear process. Often the observed waves are sufficiently broadband to overlap simultaneously the frequency ranges predicted for the ES and EM decays. Coupling the dominance of the ES decay with this frequency overlap provides support for a previous suggestion that fundamental emission occurs when the EM decay is stimulated by the ES decay product waves. The periods in which the ES and EM decays produce observable S waves are consistent with the observed and (independently) predicted times of fundamental and harmonic radio emission. This supports interpretation of fundamental emission as stimulated EM decay and harmonic emission as the coalescence L + L(prime) yields T of beam-generated L waves and L(prime) waves produced by the ES decay, where T denotes an electromagnetic wave at twice the plasma frequency. Analysis of the electron beam data reveals that the time-varying beam speed is consistent with ballistic beam propagation with minimal energy loss, implying that the beam propagates in a state close to time- and volume-averaged marginal stability. This confirms a central tenet of the stochastic growth theory for type III bursts.

Cairns, Iver H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

CyProduct: A software tool for accurately predicting the byproducts of human cytochrome P450 metabolism

In silico metabolism prediction is a cheminformatic task of autonomously predicting the set of metabolic byproducts produced from a specified molecule and a set of enzymes or reactions. Here we describe a novel machine-learned in silico cytochrome P450 (CYP450) metabolism prediction suite, called CyProduct, that accurately predicts metabolic byproducts for a specified molecule and a human CYP450 isoform. It includes three modules: (1) CypReact, a tool that predicts if the query compound reacts with a given CYP450 enzyme; (2) CypBoM, a tool that accurately predicts the “bond site” of the reaction (i.e., which specific bonds within the query molecule react with the CYP isoform); and (3) MetaboGen, a tool that generates the metabolic byproducts based on CypBoM’s bond-site prediction. CyProduct predicts metabolic biotransformation products for each of the nine most important human CYP450 enzymes. CypBoM uses an important new concept called “Bond of Metabolism” (BoM), which extends the traditional “Site of Metabolism" (SoM) by specifying the information about the set of chemical bonds that is modified or formed in a metabolic reaction (rather than the specific atom). We created a BoM database for 3487 CYP450-mediated Phase I reactions, then used this to train the CypBoM Predictor to predict the reactive bond locations on substrate molecules. CypBoM Predictor’s cross-validated Jaccard score for reactive bond prediction ranged from 0.380 to 0.452 over the nine CYP450 enzymes. Over variants of a test set of 72 known CYP450 substrates and 30 non-reactants, CyProduct outperformed the other packages -- including ADMET Predictor, BioTransformer and GLORY -- by an average of 200% (wrt Jaccard score) in terms of predicting metabolites. The CyProduct suite and the datasets are freely available at https://bitbucket.org/wishartlab/cyproduct/src/master/.

Machine learning, Cytochrome P450, Metabolism pred↗