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At least 55 records · Page 3

Analytical study of rigidized fibrous materials

Insulation systems composed of micrometer-sized fibers bonded together with small amounts of binder have been developed for aerospace applications. The materials have a very high volid content and low density and can be characterized as a rigidized network of fibers randomly oriented in three-dimensional space. Analytical models suitable for the evaluation of the mechanical behavior of rigidized fibrous materials have been developed. The models treat the material as a space frame structure and includes the effects of joint fixity and fiber curvature. The geometrical and material property variabilities are represented by a number of trusses oriented in five planes. Each truss may have different material and geometric properties. Techniques have been developed to describe the continuous material property and geometry functions as a series of descrete quantities that can be used to describe each of the trusses in the model. Parametric studies were performed to show the influence of material variables on the mechanical behavior of the material. Results of calculations show good agreement with measured properties.

Rosen, B. W.↗

Design and Analysis of Architectures for Structural Health Monitoring Systems

During the two-year project period, we have worked on several aspects of Health Usage and Monitoring Systems for structural health monitoring. In particular, we have made contributions in the following areas. 1. Reference HUMS architecture: We developed a high-level architecture for health monitoring and usage systems (HUMS). The proposed reference architecture is shown. It is compatible with the Generic Open Architecture (GOA) proposed as a standard for avionics systems. 2. HUMS kernel: One of the critical layers of HUMS reference architecture is the HUMS kernel. We developed a detailed design of a kernel to implement the high level architecture.3. Prototype implementation of HUMS kernel: We have implemented a preliminary version of the HUMS kernel on a Unix platform.We have implemented both a centralized system version and a distributed version. 4. SCRAMNet and HUMS: SCRAMNet (Shared Common Random Access Memory Network) is a system that is found to be suitable to implement HUMS. For this reason, we have conducted a simulation study to determine its stability in handling the input data rates in HUMS. 5. Architectural specification.

Mukkamala, Ravi↗

Predicting near-saturated hydraulic conductivity in urban soils

Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) provide point predictions of soil hydraulic properties from more readily measured soil characteristics, yet uncertainties and biases in measurement methods, sampling distributions, and boundary conditions can limit accuracy when estimating near-saturated hydraulic conductivity (K(n)). These limitations may be particularly problematic in understudied urban landscapes that often contain altered hydraulic properties. To better treat deficiencies in PTF performance, we addressed three objectives, which were to: 1) develop PTFs to predict urban K(n), 2) assess bulk density and coarse fragments as explanatory variables; and 3) evaluate the predictive capability of these PTFs by comparing their output to measured hydraulic conductivity values from three other studies of urban soil hydraulics. We used artificial neural networks (ANN) and random forest (RF) approaches to predict urban K(n), with the training dataset including 307 tension infiltrometer tests and other measurements drawn from urban soil assessments in 11 U.S. cities. The PTFs utilized a hierarchy of inputs, starting with percentage sand, silt, clay, and then adding percentage coarse fragments and bulk density. The ANN models performed similar to the RF models, and all models exhibited similar or better predictive performance as models results collected from published articles. The inclusion of bulk density or coarse fragments did not improve accuracy over soil texture alone. Possible reasons for this result include low correlation between K(n) and bulk density and the exclusion of large voids during flow measurements with tension infiltrometers. The models have been made available as an open-source software package to encourage adoption by users working in urban systems.

Jinshi Jian↗

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

Goodrich, Michael S.↗

Complex Dynamics of Air Traffic Flow

Air traffic in the United States has continued to grow at a steady pace since 1980, except for a dip immediately after the tragic events of September 11, 2001. There are different growth scenarios associated both with the magnitude and the composition of the future air traffic. The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), prepared every year by the FAA, projects the growth of traffic in the United States. Both Boeing and Airbus publish market outlooks for air travel annually. Although predicting the future growth of traffic is difficult, there are two significant trends: heavily congested major airports continue to see an increase in traffic, and the emergence of regional jets and other smaller aircraft with fewer passengers operating directly between non-major airports. The interaction between air traffic demand and the ability of the system to provide the necessary airport and airspace resources can be modeled as a network. The size of the resulting network varies depending on the choice of its nodes. It would be useful to understand the properties of this network to guide future design and development. Many questions, such as the growth of delay with increasing traffic demand and impact of the en route weather on future air traffic, require a systematic understanding of the properties of the air traffic network. There has been a major advance in the understanding of the behavior of networks with a large number of components. Several theories have been advanced about the evolution of large biological and engineering networks by authors in diversified disciplines like physics, mathematics, biology and computer science. Several networks exhibit a scale-free property in the sense that the probabilistic distribution of their nodes as a function of connections decreases slower than an exponential. These networks are characterized by the fact that a small number of components have a disproportionate influence on the performance of the network. Scale-free networks are tolerant to random failure of components, but are vulnerable to selective attack on components. This paper examines two network representations for the baseline air traffic system. A network defined with the 40 major airports as nodes and with standard flight routes as links has a characteristic scale: all nodes have 60 or more links and no node has more than 460 links. Another network is defined with baseline aircraft routing structure exhibits an exponentially truncated scale-free behavior. Its degree ranges from 2 connections to 2900 connections, and 225 nodes have more than 250 connections. Furthermore, those high-degree nodes are homogeneously distributed in the airspace. A consequence of this scale-free behavior is that the random loss of a single node has little impact, but the loss of multiple high-degree nodes (such as occurs during major storms in busy airspace) can adversely impact the system. Two future scenarios of air traffic growth are used to predict the growth of air traffic in the United States. It is shown that a three-times growth in the overall traffic may result in a ten-times impact on the density of traffic in certain parts of the United States.

Scale-free Networks↗

The birthplaces of active regions and X-ray bright points

A comparison of soft X-ray pictures of the Sun (S-054 experiment of Skylab) with K-line spectroheliograms (Mount Wilson) shows that the X-ray bright points tend to emerge randomly throughout the Ca network pattern. However, all those bright points that developed into active regions emerged at the boundaries of network cells. This suggests that the magnetic flux of active regions comes from greater depths in the convection zone that the shallow flux that gives rise to the random emergence of bright points.

Howard, R.↗

Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

Safe and efficient surface operations↗

On the stability of robotic systems with random communication rates

Control problems of sampled data systems which are subject to random sample rate variations and delays are studied. Due to the rapid growth of the use of computers more and more systems are controlled digitally. Complex systems such as space telerobotic systems require the integration of a number of subsystems at different hierarchical levels. While many subsystems may run on a single processor, some subsystems require their own processor or processors. The subsystems are integrated into functioning systems through communications. Communications between processes sharing a single processor are also subject to random delays due to memory management and interrupt latency. Communications between processors involve random delays due to network access and to data collisions. Furthermore, all control processes involve delays due to casual factors in measuring devices and to signal processing. Traditionally, sampling rates are chosen to meet the worst case communication delay. Such a strategy is wasteful as the processors are then idle a great proportion of the time; sample rates are not as high as possible resulting in poor performance or in the over specification of control processors; there is the possibility of missing data no matter how low the sample rate is picked. Asymptotical stability with probability one for randomly sampled multi-dimensional linear systems is studied. A sufficient condition for the stability is obtained. This condition is so simple that it can be applied to practical systems. A design procedure is also shown.

Kobayashi, H.↗

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

Kanerva's sparse distributed memory: An associative memory algorithm well-suited to the Connection Machine

The advent of the Connection Machine profoundly changes the world of supercomputers. The highly nontraditional architecture makes possible the exploration of algorithms that were impractical for standard Von Neumann architectures. Sparse distributed memory (SDM) is an example of such an algorithm. Sparse distributed memory is a particularly simple and elegant formulation for an associative memory. The foundations for sparse distributed memory are described, and some simple examples of using the memory are presented. The relationship of sparse distributed memory to three important computational systems is shown: random-access memory, neural networks, and the cerebellum of the brain. Finally, the implementation of the algorithm for sparse distributed memory on the Connection Machine is discussed.

Rogers, David↗

All about Eve: Secret Sharing using Quantum Effects

This document discusses the nature of light (including classical light and photons), encryption, quantum key distribution (QKD), light polarization and beamsplitters and their application to information communication. A quantum of light represents the smallest possible subdivision of radiant energy (light) and is called a photon. The QKD key generation sequence is outlined including the receiver broadcasting the initial signal indicating reception availability, timing pulses from the sender to provide reference for gated detection of photons, the sender generating photons through random polarization while the receiver detects photons with random polarization and communicating via data link to mutually establish random keys. The QKD network vision includes inter-SATCOM, point-to-point Gnd Fiber and SATCOM-fiber nodes. QKD offers an unconditionally secure method of exchanging encryption keys. Ongoing research will focus on how to increase the key generation rate.

no cloning theorem↗

On the capacity of ternary Hebbian networks

Networks of ternary neurons storing random vectors over the set -1,0,1 by the so-called Hebbian rule are considered. It is shown that the maximal number of stored patterns that are equilibrium states of the network with probability tending to one as N tends to infinity is at least on the order of (N exp 2-1/alpha)/K, where N is the number of neurons, K is the number of nonzero elements in a pattern, and t = alpha x K, alpha between 1/2 and 1, is the threshold in the neuron function. While, for small K, this bound is similar to that obtained for fully connected binary networks, the number of interneural connections required in the ternary case is considerably smaller. Similar bounds, incorporating error probabilities, are shown to guarantee, in the same probabilistic sense, the correction of errors in the nonzero elements and in the location of these elements.

Baram, Yoram↗

Model Of Neural Network With Creative Dynamics

Paper presents analysis of mathematical model of one-neuron/one-synapse neural network featuring coupled activation and learning dynamics and parametrical periodic excitation. Demonstrates self-programming, partly random behavior of suitable designed neural network; believed to be related to spontaneity and creativity of biological neural networks.

Zak, Michail↗

Using Random Hiveminds to Predict Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs)

The Problem: The use of conventional neural networks (CoNNs) to predict SEPs has become popular, but neural network models do not follow one-size-fits-all approaches and their chaotic natures can yield completely different results on identical data sets. Committees of neural networks identical in input features have been used to solve this problem by (Aminalragia et al., 2021), but they have the possibility of all agreeing together in lockstep and missing crucial information. The Solution: (O’Keefe et al., 2023) propose a solution consisting of neural network estimators in an ensemble, but with features randomly removed from them in a layout known as a random hivemind (RH). The decision weight, learning rate, and epoch count of each member in this ensemble are boosted in relation to how well its individual features perform in a chi-square test.

SMD↗

Statistics of premixed flame cells

The statistics of random cellular patterns in premixed flames are analyzed. Agreement is found with a variety of topological relations previously found for other networks, namely, Lewis's law and Aboav's law. Despite the diverse underlying physics, flame cells are shown to share a broad class of geometric properties with other random networks-metal grains, soap foams, bioconvection, and Langmuir monolayers.

Noever, David A.↗

Predicting protein functions from redundancies in large-scale protein interaction networks

Interpreting data from large-scale protein interaction experiments has been a challenging task because of the widespread presence of random false positives. Here, we present a network-based statistical algorithm that overcomes this difficulty and allows us to derive functions of unannotated proteins from large-scale interaction data. Our algorithm uses the insight that if two proteins share significantly larger number of common interaction partners than random, they have close functional associations. Analysis of publicly available data from Saccharomyces cerevisiae reveals >2,800 reliable functional associations, 29% of which involve at least one unannotated protein. By further analyzing these associations, we derive tentative functions for 81 unannotated proteins with high certainty. Our method is not overly sensitive to the false positives present in the data. Even after adding 50% randomly generated interactions to the measured data set, we are able to recover almost all (approximately 89%) of the original associations.

Proteins/chemistry/metabolism↗

The velocity pattern of weak solar magnetic fields

The proper motion of magnetic elements on the quiet sun has been measured by means of local correlation tracking. The existence of a pattern in the intranetwork (IN) flow is confirmed. This velocity field is consistent with the direct Doppler measurement of the horizontal component of the supergranular velocity field. The IN elements generally move toward the network boundaries. By tracking test points, it is confirmed that the magnetic elements converge in areas corresponding to the magnetic network. But because the IN elements are of random polarity, they cannot contribute to the growth or maintenance of the magnetic network. By calculating the cross correlation between the magnetogram and Dopplergram, it is confirmed that the supergranule boundaries and the magnetic network are roughly correlated.

Wang, H.↗