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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A framework to evaluate machine learning crystal stability predictions

The rapid adoption of machine learning in various scientific domains calls for the development of best practices and community agreed-upon benchmarking tasks and metrics. We present Matbench Discovery as an example evaluation framework for machine learning energy models, here applied as pre-filters to first-principles computed data in a high-throughput search for stable inorganic crystals. We address the disconnect between (1) thermodynamic stability and formation energy and (2) retrospective and prospective benchmarking for materials discovery. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python package to aid with future model submissions and a growing online leaderboard with adaptive user-defined weighting of various performance metrics allowing researchers to prioritize the metrics they value most. To answer the question of which machine learning methodology performs best at materials discovery, our initial release includes random forests, graph neural networks, one-shot predictors, iterative Bayesian optimizers and universal interatomic potentials. We highlight a misalignment between commonly used regression metrics and more task-relevant classification metrics for materials discovery. Accurate regressors are susceptible to unexpectedly high false-positive rates if those accurate predictions lie close to the decision boundary at 0 eV per atom above the convex hull. The benchmark results demonstrate that universal interatomic potentials have advanced sufficiently to effectively and cheaply pre-screen thermodynamic stable hypothetical materials in future expansions of high-throughput materials databases.

Riebesell, Janosh↗
DOE OSTI2025

Graph-based design of irregular metamaterials

In the field of metamaterial research, random structures offer a novel and less conventional approach compared to traditional periodic designs. Designing random metamaterials is challenging when it comes to ensuring intercon- nectivity, which is essential for manufacturability. This study introduces an innovative framework for generating random metamaterials using graph al- gorithms, ensuring connectivity and adaptability across various base shapes, including cylinders, triangles, pyramids, and cubes. By employing graph algorithms, our framework enhances the intuitiveness and efficiency of de- sign representation and manipulation, streamlining the design process. The framework generates families of designs that exhibit a wide range of prop- erty magnitudes that can be adjusted intuitively by modifying the input parameters. The rapid design process allows many designs to be generated, offering the user a multitude of solutions around the target property range. The designs can be effectively implemented in various fields and subjected to diverse analytical studies, including static, dynamic, and eigenfrequency assessments. We illustrate computational results for two key properties (stiff- ness and acoustic impedance), showcasing the method’s effectiveness through examples ranging from rod-based to cube-based designs. Here, the framework not only advances metamaterial research but also creates new opportunities for innovation in fields requiring customized material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2003

Scale-free Graphs for General Aviation Flight Schedules

In the late 1990s a number of researchers noticed that networks in biology, sociology, and telecommunications exhibited similar characteristics unlike standard random networks. In particular, they found that the cummulative degree distributions of these graphs followed a power law rather than a binomial distribution and that their clustering coefficients tended to a nonzero constant as the number of nodes, n, became large rather than O(1/n). Moreover, these networks shared an important property with traditional random graphs as n becomes large the average shortest path length scales with log n. This latter property has been coined the small-world property. When taken together these three properties small-world, power law, and constant clustering coefficient describe what are now most commonly referred to as scale-free networks. Since 1997 at least six books and over 400 articles have been written about scale-free networks. In this manuscript an overview of the salient characteristics of scale-free networks. Computational experience will be provided for two mechanisms that grow (dynamic) scale-free graphs. Additional computational experience will be given for constructing (static) scale-free graphs via a tabu search optimization approach. Finally, a discussion of potential applications to general aviation networks is given.

Alexandov, Natalia M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient QAOA Optimization using Directed Restarts and Graph Lookup

Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQA) aim to enhance the capabilities of Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) devices. These algorithms utilize parameterized circuits and classical optimizers to iteratively execute circuits with varying parameters. However, VQA faces computational overheads due to repeated iterations and random restarts. Prior work suggests using basic sub-graphs to transfer parameters for the input graph, reducing optimizer overheads but limiting applicability to structured regular graphs. In real-world applications, random irregular graphs are common, and existing methods are not scalable or practical for such graphs. This paper presents a framework that aims to improve random irregular graphs in VQA. The framework uses graph similarity and important features like total edge counts, average edge counts, and variance. It follows an iterative process to choose basis sub-graphs from a small database and adjust parameters accordingly. Classical optimizers then utilize these parameters to determine when to restart and perform gradient descent. This approach increases the chances of reaching global maximum points.

Wang, Meng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Degree-preserving graph dynamics: a versatile process to construct random networks

Real-world networks evolve over time via the addition or removal of vertices and edges. In current network evolution models, vertex degree varies or grows arbitrarily. A recently introduced degree-preserving network growth (DPG) family of models preserves vertex degree, resulting in structures significantly different from and more diverse than previous models. Despite its degree preserving property, the DPG model is able to replicate the output of several well-known real-world network growth models. Simulations showed that many real-world networks can also be constructed from small seed graphs via the DPG process. Here, we start the development of a rigorous mathematical theory underlying the DPG family of network growth models. We prove that the degree sequence of the output of some of the well-known, real-world network growth models can be reconstructed via the DPG process, using proper parametrization. We also show that the general problem of deciding whether a simple graph can be obtained via the DPG process from a small seed (DPG feasibility) is, however, NP-complete. In conclusion, it is an intriguing open problem to uncover whether there is a structural reason behind the DPG-constructability of real-world networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Graph neural networks for CO 2 solubility predictions in Deep Eutectic Solvents

Deep Eutectic Solvents (DESs) are a promising class of solvents for CO 2 capture. DESs are complex mixtures that can be designed to optimize CO solubility and overall capture process efficiency. However, the vast design landscape of DES mixtures makes experimental investigation prohibitive; as such, there is a need for computational models that can quickly and efficiently navigate the design space and inform data collection efforts. In this work, we propose Graph Neural Network (GNN) models for predicting CO 2 solubility for DESs; the GNN leverages a mixture graph representation that captures the molecular structure of the DES components as well as their intermolecular interactions. Here, we compare the GNN framework against alternative architectures (neural networks, graph convolution networks, and random forests) and data representations (molecular fingerprints, sigma profiles, and graphs). We show that the proposed approach offers superior predictive performance; specifically, we show that solubility can be predicted reliably directly from molecular structure (without the need of using sigma profiles as proposed in previous studies). This result is important, as obtaining sigma profiles requires expensive density functional theory computations. We also explored the ability of GNNs to predict solubility for new DES mixtures and operating conditions. We found that the model extrapolates across temperature reliably. However, we also found deficiencies in the ability of the model to predict solubility for DES mixtures, pressures, and molar ratio not included in the training sets; we show that this is due to an inherent lack of chemical diversity in datasets available in the literature. The proposed computational capabilities can thus help navigate the design space of DES and inform data collection efforts. Our models, data, and benchmarks are shared as Python code implemented in Jupyter notebooks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

A graph embedding‐based approach for automatic cyber‐physical power system risk assessment to prevent and mitigate threats at scale

Abstract Power systems are facing an increasing number of cyber incidents, potentially leading to damaging consequences to both physical and cyber aspects. However, the development of analytical methods for the study of large‐scale power infrastructures as cyber‐physical systems is still in its early stages. Drawing inspiration from machine‐learning techniques, the authors introduce a method inspired by the principles of graph embedding that is tailored for quantitative risk assessment and the exploration of possible mitigation strategies of large‐scale cyber‐physical power systems. The primary advantage of the graph embedding approach lies in its ability to generate numerous random walks on a graph, simulating potential access paths. Meanwhile, it enables capturing high‐dimensional structures in low‐dimensional spaces, facilitating advanced machine‐learning applications, and ensuring scalability and adaptability for comprehensive network analysis. By employing this graph embedding‐based approach, the authors present a structured and methodical framework for risk assessment in cyber‐physical systems. The proposed graph embedding‐based risk analysis framework aims to provide a more insightful perspective on cyber‐physical risk assessment and situation awareness for power systems. To validate and demonstrate its applicability, the method has been tested on two cyber‐physical power system models: the Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) 9‐Bus System and the Illinois 200‐Bus System , thereby showing its advantages in enhancing the accuracy of risk analysis and comprehensiveness of situational awareness.

Sun, Shining↗
DOE OSTI2023

A unified understanding of minimum lattice thermal conductivity

Here, we propose a first-principles model of minimum lattice thermal conductivity ($κ^{min}_L$) based on a unified theoretical treatment of thermal transport in crystals and glasses. We apply this model to thousands of inorganic compounds and find a universal behavior of $κ^{min}_L$ in crystals in the high-temperature limit: The isotropically averaged $κ^{min}_L$ is independent of structural complexity and bounded within a range from ~0.1 to ~2.6 W/(m K), in striking contrast to the conventional phonon gas model which predicts no lower bound. We unveil the underlying physics by showing that for a given parent compound, $κ^{min}_L$ is bounded from below by a value that is approximately insensitive to disorder, but the relative importance of different heat transport channels (phonon gas versus diffuson) depends strongly on the degree of disorder. Moreover, we propose that the diffuson-dominated $κ^{min}_L$ in complex and disordered compounds might be effectively approximated by the phonon gas model for an ordered compound by averaging out disorder and applying phonon unfolding. With these insights, we further bridge the knowledge gap between our model and the well-known Cahill–Watson–Pohl (CWP) model, rationalizing the successes and limitations of the CWP model in the absence of heat transfer mediated by diffusons. Finally, we construct graph network and random forest machine learning models to extend our predictions to all compounds within the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database (ICSD), which were validated against thermoelectric materials possessing experimentally measured ultralow κ L . Our work offers a unified understanding of $κ^{min}_L$, which can guide the rational engineering of materials to achieve .

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

GrAMME: Semisupervised Learning Using Multilayered Graph Attention Models

Modern data analysis pipelines are becoming increasingly complex due to the presence of multiview information sources. While graphs are effective in modeling complex relationships, in many scenarios, a single graph is rarely sufficient to succinctly represent all interactions, and hence, multilayered graphs have become popular. Though this leads to richer representations, extending solutions from the single-graph case is not straightforward. Consequently, there is a strong need for novel solutions to solve classical problems, such as node classification, in the multilayered case. In this article, we consider the problem of semisupervised learning with multilayered graphs. Though deep network embeddings, e.g., DeepWalk, are widely adopted for community discovery, we argue that feature learning with random node attributes, using graph neural networks, can be more effective. To this end, we propose to use attention models for effective feature learning and develop two novel architectures, GrAMME-SG and GrAMME-Fusion, that exploit the interlayer dependences for building multilayered graph embeddings. Using empirical studies on several benchmark data sets, we evaluate the proposed approaches and demonstrate significant performance improvements in comparison with the state-of-the-art network embedding strategies. The results also show that using simple random features is an effective choice, even in cases where explicit node attributes are not available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Classical combinatorial optimization scaling for random Ising models on 2D heavy-hex graphs

Motivated by near term quantum computing hardware limitations, combinatorial optimization problems that can be addressed by current quantum algorithms and noisy hardware with little or no overhead are used to probe capabilities of quantum algorithms such as the quantum approximate optimization algorithm. In this study, a specific class of near term quantum computing hardware defined combinatorial optimization problems, Ising models on heavy-hex graphs both with and without geometrically local cubic terms, are examined for their classical computational hardness via empirical computation time scaling quantification. Specifically the time-to-solution (TTS) metric using the classical heuristic simulated annealing is measured for finding optimal variable assignments (ground states), as well as the time required for the optimization software Gurobi to find an optimal variable assignment. Because of the sparsity of these Ising models, the classical algorithms are able to find optimal solutions efficiently even for large instances (i.e. 100 000 spin variables). The Ising models both with and without geometrically local cubic terms exhibit average-case linear-time or weakly quadratic scaling when solved exactly using Gurobi, and the Ising models with no cubic terms show evidence of exponential-time TTS scaling when sampled using simulated annealing. These findings point to the necessity of developing and testing more complex, namely more densely connected, optimization problems in order for quantum computing to ever have a practical advantage over classical computing. Our results are another illustration that different classical algorithms can indeed have exponentially different running times, thus making the identification of the best practical classical technique important in any quantum computing vs. classical computing comparison.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Grassmannian Diffusion Maps--Based Dimension Reduction and Classification for High-Dimensional Data

This work introduces the Grassmannian diffusion maps (GDMaps), a novel nonlinear dimensionality reduction technique that defines the affinity between points through their representation as low-dimensional subspaces corresponding to points on the Grassmann manifold. Here, the method is designed for applications, such as image recognition and data-based classification of constrained high-dimensional data where each data point itself is a high-dimensional object (i.e., a large matrix) that can be compactly represented in a lower-dimensional subspace. The GDMaps is composed of two stages. The first is a pointwise linear dimensionality reduction wherein each high-dimensional object is mapped onto the Grassmann manifold representing the low-dimensional subspace on which it resides. The second stage is a multipoint nonlinear kernel-based dimension reduction using diffusion maps to identify the subspace structure of the points on the Grassmann manifold. To this end, an appropriate Grassmannian kernel is used to construct the transition matrix of a random walk on a graph connecting points on the Grassmann manifold. Spectral analysis of the transition matrix yields low-dimensional Grassmannian diffusion coordinates embedding the data into a low-dimensional reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Further, a novel data classification/recognition technique is developed based on the construction of an overcomplete dictionary of reduced dimension whose atoms are given by the Grassmannian diffusion coordinates. Three examples are considered. First, a "toy" example shows that the GDMaps can identify an appropriate parametrization of structured points on the unit sphere. The second example demonstrates the ability of the GDMaps to revealing the intrinsic subspace structure of high-dimensional random field data. In the last ex- ample, a face recognition problem is solved considering face images subject to varying illumination conditions, changes in face expressions, and occurrence of occlusions. The technique presented high recognition rates (i.e., 95% in the best case) using a fraction of the data required by conventional methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2000

JavaGenes and Condor: Cycle-Scavenging Genetic Algorithms

A genetic algorithm code, JavaGenes, was written in Java and used to evolve pharmaceutical drug molecules and digital circuits. JavaGenes was run under the Condor cycle-scavenging batch system managing 100-170 desktop SGI workstations. Genetic algorithms mimic biological evolution by evolving solutions to problems using crossover and mutation. While most genetic algorithms evolve strings or trees, JavaGenes evolves graphs representing (currently) molecules and circuits. Java was chosen as the implementation language because the genetic algorithm requires random splitting and recombining of graphs, a complex data structure manipulation with ample opportunities for memory leaks, loose pointers, out-of-bound indices, and other hard to find bugs. Java garbage-collection memory management, lack of pointer arithmetic, and array-bounds index checking prevents these bugs from occurring, substantially reducing development time. While a run-time performance penalty must be paid, the only unacceptable performance we encountered was using standard Java serialization to checkpoint and restart the code. This was fixed by a two-day implementation of custom checkpointing. JavaGenes is minimally integrated with Condor; in other words, JavaGenes must do its own checkpointing and I/O redirection. A prototype Java-aware version of Condor was developed using standard Java serialization for checkpointing. For the prototype to be useful, standard Java serialization must be significantly optimized. JavaGenes is approximately 8700 lines of code and a few thousand JavaGenes jobs have been run. Most jobs ran for a few days. Results include proof that genetic algorithms can evolve directed and undirected graphs, development of a novel crossover operator for graphs, a paper in the journal Nanotechnology, and another paper in preparation.

Globus, Al↗
DOE OSTI2024

FuseIM: Fusing Probabilistic Traversals for Influence Maximization on Exascale Systems

Probabilistic breadth-first traversals (BPTs) are used in many network science and graph machine learning applications. In this paper, we are motivated by the application of BPTs in stochastic diffusion-based graph problems such as influence maximization. These applications heavily rely on BPTs to implement a Monte-Carlo sampling step for their approximations. Given the large sampling complexity, stochasticity of the diffusion process, and the inherent irregularity in real-world graph topologies, efficiently parallelizing these BPTs remains significantly challenging. In this paper, we present a new algorithm to fuse massive number of concurrently executing BPTs with random starts on the input graph. Our algorithm is designed to fuse BPTs by combining separate traversals into a unified frontier on distributed multi-GPU systems. To show the general applicability of the fused BPT technique, we have incorporated it into two state-of-the-art influence maximization parallel implementations (gIM and Ripples). Our experiments on up to 4K nodes of the OLCF Frontier supercomputer (32,768 GPUs and 196K CPU cores) show strong scaling behavior, and that fused BPTs can improve the performance of these implementations up to 34x (for gIM) and ~360x (for Ripples).

Neff, Reece W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coherent manipulation of graph states composed of finite-energy Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill-encoded qubits

Graph states are a central resource in measurement-based quantum information processing. In the photonic qubit architecture based on Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill (GKP) encoding, the generation of high-fidelity graph states composed of realistic, finite-energy approximate GKP-encoded qubits thus constitutes a key task. We consider the finite-energy approximation of GKP-qubit states given by a coherent superposition of shifted finite-squeezed vacuum states, where the displacements are Gaussian distributed. We present an exact description of graph states composed of such approximate GKP qubits as a coherent superposition of a Gaussian ensemble of randomly displaced ideal GKP-qubit graph states. Using standard Gaussian dynamics, we track the transformation of the covariance matrix and the mean-displacement vector elements of the Gaussian distribution of the ensemble under tools such as GKP-Steane error-correction and fusion operations that can be used to grow large high-fidelity GKP-qubit graph states. The covariance matrix elements capture the noise in the graph state due to the finite-energy approximation of GKP qubits, while the mean displacements relate to the possible absolute shift errors on the individual qubits arising conditionally from the homodyne measurements that are a part of these tools. Our work thus pins down an exact coherent error model for graph states generated from truly finite-energy GKP qubits, which can shed light on their error-correction properties.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improvement of Automated POST Case Success Rate Using Support Vector Machines

During early conceptual design of complex systems, concept down selection can have a large impact upon program life-cycle cost. Therefore, any concepts selected during early design will inherently commit program costs and affect the overall probability of program success. For this reason it is important to consider as large a design space as possible in order to better inform the down selection process. For conceptual design of launch vehicles, trajectory analysis and optimization often presents the largest obstacle to evaluating large trade spaces. This is due to the sensitivity of the trajectory discipline to changes in all other aspects of the vehicle design. Small deltas in the performance of other subsystems can result in relatively large fluctuations in the ascent trajectory because the solution space is non-linear and multi-modal [1]. In order to help capture large design spaces for new launch vehicles, the authors have performed previous work seeking to automate the execution of the industry standard tool, Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST). This work initially focused on implementation of analyst heuristics to enable closure of cases in an automated fashion, with the goal of applying the concepts of design of experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to enable near instantaneous throughput of vehicle cases [2]. Additional work was then completed to improve the DOE process by utilizing a graph theory based approach to connect similar design points [3]. The conclusion of the previous work illustrated the utility of the graph theory approach for completing a DOE through POST. However, this approach was still dependent upon the use of random repetitions to generate seed points for the graph. As noted in [3], only 8% of these random repetitions resulted in converged trajectories. This ultimately affects the ability of the random reps method to confidently approach the global optima for a given vehicle case in a reasonable amount of time. With only an 8% pass rate, tens or hundreds of thousands of reps may be needed to be confident that the best repetition is at least close to the global optima. However, typical design study time constraints require that fewer repetitions be attempted, sometimes resulting in seed points that have only a handful of successful completions. If a small number of successful repetitions are used to generate a seed point, the graph method may inherit some inaccuracies as it chains DOE cases from the non-global-optimal seed points. This creates inherent noise in the graph data, which can limit the accuracy of the resulting surrogate models. For this reason, the goal of this work is to improve the seed point generation method and ultimately the accuracy of the resulting POST surrogate model. The work focuses on increasing the case pass rate for seed point generation.

Zwack, Matthew R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Picasso: Memory-Efficient Graph Coloring Using Palettes With Applications in Quantum Computing

A coloring of a graph is an assignment of colors to vertices such that no two neighboring vertices have the same color. The need for memory-efficient coloring algorithms is motivated by their application in computing clique partitions of graphs arising in quantum computations where the objective is to map a large set of Pauli strings into a compact set of unitaries. We present Picasso, a randomized memory-efficient iterative parallel graph coloring algorithm with theoretical sublinear space guarantees under practical assumptions. The parameters of our algorithm provide a trade-off between coloring quality and resource consumption. To assist the user, we also propose a machine learning model to predict the coloring algorithm’s parameters considering these trade-offs. We provide a sequential and a parallel implementation of the proposed algorithm. We perform an experimental evaluation on a 64-core AMD CPU equipped with 512 GB of memory and an Nvidia A100 GPU with 40GB of memory. For a small dataset where existing coloring algorithms can be executed within the 512 GB memory budget, we show up to 68× memory savings. On massive datasets we demonstrate that GPU-accelerated Picasso can process inputs with 49.5× more Pauli strings (vertex set in our graph) and 2,478× more edges than state-of-the-art parallel approaches.

artificial intelligence, quantum computing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Position Papers for the ASCR Workshop on Cybersecurity and Privacy for Scientific Computing Ecosystems

At the request of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR), this program committee has been tasked with organizing a workshop to identify basic research needs in cybersecurity and privacy to better support DOE's science and energy mission. As part of the process, the program committee is soliciting community input in the form of position papers to help identify significant use cases, facility issues, and other barriers to enabling verifiably trustworthy computational science while preserving data confidentiality as appropriate for scientific workflows of interest to DOE. The program committee will review these position papers and based on the fit of their area of expertise and interest, selected contributors will have the opportunity to participate in the workshop currently planned as a virtual event November 3-5th, 2021. The thrust areas that will be explored by this workshop are the following: (1) Algorithms for secure, scalable, privacy-enhancing technologies and frameworks, including: Federated AI/ML, Differential privacy, Randomized algorithms, Adversarial modeling & simulation, Graph algorithms, and Formal methods; (2) Platforms to support the entire scientific-computing ecosystem, including edge computing for large-scale experiments, focusing on heterogeneous systems and distributed systems, including: Heterogeneous computing systems, Distributed computing systems, and Secure data architectures; and (3) Data workflows to allow agile use of data while preserving integrity and privacy, making the important properties verifiable either at runtime or post-computation, including: Integrity and provenance and Data management infrastructure. Topics that are out-of-scope for the workshop include discussing specific proposed solutions or areas that are clearly out of DOE's fundamental and applied-sciences mission scope, e.g., cryptography, enterprise security, and general-operations technology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2016

Recurrence Rate and Magma Effusion Rate for the Latest Volcanism on Arsia Mons, Mars

Magmatism and volcanism have evolved the Martian lithosphere, surface, and climate throughout the history of Mars. Constraining the rates of magma generation and timing of volcanism on the surface clarifies the ways in which magma and volcanic activity have shaped these Martian systems. The ages of lava flows on other planets are often estimated using impact crater counts, assuming that the number and size-distribution of impact craters per unit area reflect the time the lava flow has been on the surface and exposed to potential impacts. Here we show that impact crater age model uncertainty is reduced by adding stratigraphic information observed at locations where neighboring lavas abut each other, and demonstrate the significance of this reduction in age uncertainty for understanding the history of a volcanic field comprising 29 vents in the 110-kilometer-diameter caldera of Arsia Mons, Mars. Each vent within this caldera produced lava flows several to tens of kilometers in length; these vents are likely among the youngest on Mars, since no impact craters in their lava flows are larger than 1 kilometer in diameter. First, we modeled the age of each vent with impact crater counts performed on their corresponding lava flows and found very large age uncertainties for the ages of individual vents, often spanning the estimated age for the entire volcanic field. The age model derived from impact crater counts alone is broad and unimodal, with estimated peak activity in the field around 130Ma (megaannum, 1 million years). Next we applied our volcano event age model (VEAM), which uses a directed graph of stratigraphic relationships and random sampling of the impact crater age determinations to create alternative age models. Monte Carlo simulation was used to create 10,000 possible vent age sets. The recurrence rate of volcanism is calculated for each possible age set, and these rates are combined to calculate the median recurrence rate of all simulations. Applying this approach to the 29 volcanic vents, volcanism likely began around 200-300Ma then first peaked around 150Ma, with an average production rate of 0.4 vents per Myr (million years). The recurrence rate estimated including stratigraphic data is distinctly bimodal, with a second, lower peak in activity around 100Ma. Volcanism then waned until the final vents were produced 10-90Ma. Based on this model, volume flux is also bimodal, reached a peak rate of 1-8 cubic kilometers per million years by 150Ma and remained above half this rate until about 90Ma, after which the volume flux diminished greatly. The onset of effusive volcanism from 200-150Ma might be due to a transition of volcanic style away from explosive volcanism that emplaced tephra on the western flank of Arsia Mons, while the waning of volcanism after the 150Ma peak might represent a larger-scale diminishing of volcanic activity at Arsia Mons related to the emplacement of flank apron lavas.

Richardson, Jacob A.↗