Results for “probability of failure” — Page 3

NASA NTRS2004

Experiences with Probabilistic Analysis Applied to Controlled Systems

This paper presents a semi-analytic method for computing frequency dependent means, variances, and failure probabilities for arbitrarily large-order closed-loop dynamical systems possessing a single uncertain parameter or with multiple highly correlated uncertain parameters. The approach will be shown to not suffer from the same computational challenges associated with computing failure probabilities using conventional FORM/SORM techniques. The approach is demonstrated by computing the probabilistic frequency domain performance of an optimal feed-forward disturbance rejection scheme.

Kenny, Sean P.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Performance analysis of the word synchronization properties of the outer code in a TDRSS decoder

A self-synchronizing coding scheme for NASA's TDRSS satellite system is a concatenation of a (2,1,7) inner convolutional code with a (255,223) Reed-Solomon outer code. Both symbol and word synchronization are achieved without requiring that any additional symbols be transmitted. An important parameter which determines the performance of the word sync procedure is the ratio of the decoding failure probability to the undetected error probability. Ideally, the former should be as small as possible compared to the latter when the error correcting capability of the code is exceeded. A computer simulation of a (255,223) Reed-Solomon code as carried out. Results for decoding failure probability and for undetected error probability are tabulated and compared.

Costello, D. J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Reliability Analysis in the Presence of Aleatory Uncertainty

This paper proposes a method for modeling a system’s response using data. In contrast to approaches that identify a limit state function, we focus on the case in which not all uncertain parameters affecting the response are observable and the measured response is corrupted by noise. To this end, the system response is not characterized by a limit state function but instead by a Random Predictor Model (RPM) having a nonparametric structure. Consequently, the resulting failure probability is not a scalar but a random variable. This variable accounts for the aleatory contributions of the model-form uncertainty and the measurement noise into the response. Furthermore, we propose a framework that enables trading off the predicted range of failure probabilities resulting from such an analysis with a measure of risk. In this context, risk is the percentage of all predicted outcomes the analyst is willing to ignore. The reliability analysis of an aeroelastic structure subject to flutter is used to illustrate the ideas proposed.

Crespo, L. G.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Hatfield, Glen S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Reliability assessment of thrust chamber cooling concepts using probabilistic analysis techniques

The reliability of OFHC (Oxygen Free High Conductivity) copper and NARloy-Z thrust chambers is assessed by applying probabilistic structural analysis techniques to incorporate design parameter variability and uncertainty. Thrust chambers specifically evaluated are the cylindrical test fixtures employed in a plug-nozzle configuration at the NASA Lewis Research Center. Direct sampling Monte Carlo simulations based on a simplified life prediction methodology established probability densities of firing cycles to structural failure. Simulated cyclic lives demonstrated modest agreement to experiment. Similarly, regions of high structural failure probability were determined using a limit state approach employing calculated cumulative distribution functions for effective stress response and an assumed material strength distribution. A probability of failure of 0.012 was calculated at the center of the coolant channel hot-gas-side wall for an OFHC milled channel. Structural response was found to be sensitive to the uncertainties in the thrust chamber thermal environment and the material's thermal expansion coefficient.

Rapp, Douglas C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Reliability assessment of thrust chamber cooling concepts using probabilistic analysis techniques

The reliability of OFHC (Oxygen Free High Conductivity) copper and NARloy-Z thrust chambers is assessed by applying probabilistic structural analysis techniques to incorporate design parameter variability and uncertainty. Thrust chambers specifically evaluated are the cylindrical test fixtures employed in a plug-nozzle configuration at the NASA Lewis Research Center. Direct sampling Monte Carlo simulations based on a simplified life prediction methodology established probability densities of firing cycles to structural failure. Simulated cyclic lives demonstrated modest agreement to experiment. Similarly, regions of high structural failure probability were determined using a limit state approach employing calculated cumulative distribution functions for effective stress response and an assumed material strength distribution. A probability of failure of 0.012 was calculated at the center of the coolant channel hot-gas-side wall for an OFHC milled channel. Structural response was found to be sensitive to the uncertainties in the thrust chamber thermal environment and the material's thermal expansion coefficient.

Rapp, Douglas C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A Numerical Round Robin for the Reliability Prediction of Structural Ceramics

A round robin has been conducted on integrated fast fracture design programs for brittle materials. An informal working group (WELFEP-WEakest Link failure probability prediction by Finite Element Postprocessors) was formed to discuss and evaluate the implementation of the programs examined in the study. Results from the study have provided insight on the differences between the various programs examined. Conclusions from the study have shown that when brittle materials are used in design, analysis must understand how to apply the concepts presented herein to failure probability analysis.

Powers, Lynn M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probability of failure and risk assessment of propulsion structural components

The probabilistic structural analysis method (PSAM) was developed to analyze the effects of fluctuating loads, variable material properties, and uncertain analytical models especially for high performance structures such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine turbopump blades. Risk is calculated after expensive service experience. However, probabilistic structural analysis provides a rational alternative method to quantify uncertainties in the structural performance and durability. NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a probabilistic structural analysis computer code which integrates finite element methods and reliability algorithms, capable to predicting the probability distributions of structural response variables such as stress, displacement, natural frequencies, and buckling loads. This computer code is detailed.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Uncertainty Quantification for Polynomial Systems via Bernstein Expansions

This paper presents a unifying framework to uncertainty quantification for systems having polynomial response metrics that depend on both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The approach proposed, which is based on the Bernstein expansions of polynomials, enables bounding the range of moments and failure probabilities of response metrics as well as finding supersets of the extreme epistemic realizations where the limits of such ranges occur. These bounds and supersets, whose analytical structure renders them free of approximation error, can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort. Furthermore, this framework enables determining the importance of particular uncertain parameters according to the extent to which they affect the first two moments of response metrics and failure probabilities. This analysis enables determining the parameters that should be considered uncertain as well as those that can be assumed to be constants without incurring significant error. The analytical nature of the approach eliminates the numerical error that characterizes the sampling-based techniques commonly used to propagate aleatory uncertainties as well as the possibility of under predicting the range of the statistic of interest that may result from searching for the best- and worstcase epistemic values via nonlinear optimization or sampling.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) Options for the Future Shuttle

The main engines for the Future Shuttle will focus on improved safety and operability. Performance enhancements may also be required for vehicle safety purposes to achieve more desirable abort scenarios. This paper discusses the potential improvements that will be considered for implementation into the Future Shuttle. Integrated engine and vehicle health management systems will achieve additional system-level reliability improvements over those currently in development. Advanced instrumentation for detecting leaks, analyzing component wear and degradation, and providing sophisticated operational data will be used for reliable engine control and scheduling maintenance operations. A new nozzle and main combustion chamber (MCC) will reduce failure probability by 50% and allow for higher thrust capability without requiring the entire engine to be redesigned. Turbopump improvements may range from minor component improvements to using 3rd-generation pumps built on the advanced concepts demonstrated by the Integrated Powerhead Development (IPD) program and the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) prototype engines.The main engines for the Future Shuttle will focus on improved safety and operability. Performance enhancements may also be required for vehicle safety purposes to achieve more desirable abort scenarios. This paper discusses the potential improvements that will be considered for implementation into the Future Shuttle. Integrated engine and vehicle health management systems will achieve additional system-level reliability improvements over those currently in development. Advanced instrumentation for detecting leaks, analyzing component wear and degradation, and providing sophisticated operational data will be used for reliable engine control and scheduling maintenance operations. A new nozzle and main combustion chamber (MCC) will reduce failure probability by 50% and allow for higher thrust capability without requiring the entire engine to be redesigned. Turbopump improvements may range from minor component improvements to using 3rd-generation pumps built on the advanced concepts demonstrated by the Integrated Powerhead Development (IPD) program and the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) prototype engines.

Jue, Fred↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probability of Failure and Risk Assessment of Propulsion Structural Components

Due to increasing need to account for the uncertainties in material properties, loading conditions, or geometries, a methodology was developed to determine structural reliability and the assess the risk associated with it. The methodology consists of a probabilistic structural analysis by a probabilistic finite element computer code Nonlinear Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) and a generic probabilistic material properties model. The methodology is versatile and is equally applicable to high and cryogenic temperature structures. Results obtained demonstrate that the whole issue of structural reliability and risk can be formally evaluated using the methodology developed which is inclusive of uncertainties in material properties, structural parameters and loading conditions. The methodology is described in some detail with illustrative examples.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probability of failure and risk assessment of propulsion structural components

Because of the increasing need to account for the uncertainties in material properties, loading conditions, geometry, etc., a methodology was developed to determine structural reliability and to assess the associated risk. The methodology consists of a probabilistic structural analysis by a probabilistic finite element computer code, numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress (NESSUS), and a generic probabilistic material property model. The methodology is versatile and is equally applicable to structures operating at high and cryogenic temperature environments. Results obtained demonstrate that the issues of structural reliability and risk can be formally evaluated by using the methodology developed which is inclusive of the uncertainties in material properties, structural parameters, and loading conditions. The methodology is described in some detail with illustrative examples.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

New Approach to Total Dose Specification for Spacecraft Electronics

Variability of the space radiation environment is investigated with regard to total dose specification for spacecraft electronics. It is shown to have a significant impact. A new approach is developed for total dose requirements that replaces the radiation design margin concept with failure probability during a mission.

Device Failure Probability↗