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At least 55 records · Page 3

Improved multifidelity Monte Carlo estimators based on normalizing flows and dimensionality reduction techniques

Here, we study the problem of multifidelity uncertainty propagation for computationally expensive models. In particular, we consider the general setting where the high-fidelity and low-fidelity models have a dissimilar parameterization both in terms of number of random inputs and their probability distributions, which can be either known in closed form or provided through samples. We derive novel multifidelity Monte Carlo estimators which rely on a shared subspace between the high-fidelity and low-fidelity models where the parameters follow the same probability distribution, i.e., a standard Gaussian. We build the shared space employing normalizing flows to map different probability distributions into a common one, together with linear and nonlinear dimensionality reduction techniques, active subspaces and autoencoders, respectively, which capture the subspaces where the models vary the most. We then compose the existing low-fidelity model with these transformations and construct modified models with an increased correlation with the high-fidelity model, which therefore yield multifidelity estimators with reduced variance. A series of numerical experiments illustrate the properties and advantages of our approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulating sticky particles: A Monte Carlo method to sample a stratification

Many problems in materials science and biology involve particles interacting with strong, short-ranged bonds that can break and form on experimental timescales. Treating such bonds as constraints can significantly speed up sampling their equilibrium distribution, and there are several methods to sample probability distributions subject to fixed constraints. We introduce a Monte Carlo method to handle the case when constraints can break and form. More generally, the method samples a probability distribution on a stratification: a collection of manifolds of different dimensions, where the lower-dimensional manifolds lie on the boundaries of the higher-dimensional manifolds. We show several applications of the method in polymer physics, self-assembly of colloids, and volume calculation in high dimensions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Uncertainty Propagation within Chained Models for Machine Learning Reconstruction of Neutrino-LAr Interactions

Sequential or chained models are increasingly prevalent in machine learning for scientific applications, due to their flexibility and ease of development. Chained models are particularly useful when a task is separable into distinct steps with a hierarchy of meaningful intermediate representations. In reliability-critical tasks, it is important to quantify the confidence of model inferences. However, chained models pose an additional challenge for uncertainty quantification, especially when input uncertainties need to be propagated. In such cases, a fully uncertainty-aware chain of models is required, where each step accepts a probability distribution over the input space, and produces a probability distribution over the output space. In this work, we present a case study for adapting a single model within an existing chain, designed for reconstruction within neutrino-Argon interactions, developed for neutrino oscillation experiments such as MicroBooNE, ICARUS, and the future DUNE experiment. We test the performance of an input uncertainty-enabled model against an uncertainty-blinded model using a method for generating synthetic noise. By comparing these two, we assess the increase in inference quality achieved by exposing models to upstream uncertainty estimates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

State of Stress Uncertainty Quantification and Geomechanical Risk Analysis for Subsurface Engineering

All subsurface stress measurement methods available for deep subsurface applications are indirect and involve a significant amount of uncertainty. Quantifying these uncertainties is critical for applications where the state of stress is a component of a risk analysis with significant safety, environmental, and economic considerations. A publicly available and open source tool called the State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT) has been developed to aid in performing a Bayesian uncertainty quantification and geomechanical risk analysis using many types of commonly available data. A new feature of this tool is using data from the FutureGen 2.0 site. The new feature of the tool was uses information about the absence or presence of borehole breakouts to constrain the state of stress. This new feature allows the user to specify probability distributions for the relevant parameters such as the drilling mud pressure, temperature, and the formation strength properties. The tool computes the posterior joint probability distribution of the horizontal principal stresses. Using random samples from this posterior distribution the tool then computes the probability of activating a critically oriented fault at a range of pore pressures. This latter feature can be used to aid in the assessment of the risk of induced seismicity and leakage in geologic carbon sequestration and enhanced geothermal systems.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗

Determination of proton PDF uncertainties with Markov chain Monte Carlo

We present an analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The MCMC approach naturally implements Bayes’ theorem and, thus, provides a means to directly sample the underlying probability distribution—in this case, the probability distribution of the PDF parameters. This allows for a straightforward propagation of the resulting uncertainties into any PDF-dependent observable, preserving their simple probabilistic interpretation. In our analysis we include a broad set of deep inelastic scattering data from HERA, BCDMS and NMC experiments along with the Drell-Yan, 𝑊 and 𝑍 boson data from LHC and Tevatron experiments, which combined with theoretical calculations at next-to-next-to-leading order in QCD allow for realistic determination of PDFs. The main focus of this analysis is to explore alternative methods for PDF uncertainty estimation that are more firmly grounded in statistical principles. We show that the flexibility of the Bayes framework, allowing one, e.g., to account for non-Gaussianity or inconsistencies of datasets, is crucial to extract realistic uncertainties when such assumptions are not fulfilled. We also demonstrate that MCMC allows one to determine the Δ⁢𝜒 2 value corresponding to a given confidence level in the sample, which can, in turn, be used as a statistically well-founded tolerance criterion used in the Hessian method, thus addressing one of its main long-standing drawbacks.

Risse, Peter Clemens [Universität Münster (Germany↗

Learning the temporal evolution of multivariate densities via normalizing flows

In this work, we propose a method to learn multivariate probability distributions using sample path data from stochastic differential equations. Specifically, we consider temporally evolving probability distributions (e.g., those produced by integrating local or nonlocal Fokker–Planck equations). Here, we analyze this evolution through machine learning assisted construction of a time-dependent mapping that takes a reference distribution (say, a Gaussian) to each and every instance of our evolving distribution. If the reference distribution is the initial condition of a Fokker–Planck equation, what we learn is the time-T map of the corresponding solution. Specifically, the learned map is a multivariate normalizing flow that deforms the support of the reference density to the support of each and every density snapshot in time. We demonstrate that this approach can approximate probability density function evolutions in time from observed sampled data for systems driven by both Brownian and Lévy noise. We present examples with two- and three-dimensional, uni- and multimodal distributions to validate the method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evolution of the age-included nearest pair distribution in disperse multiphase flows

The age of the nearest particle pair is introduced as the difference between the current time and the most recent time when the nearest particle pair was formed. The evolution equation for the age-included nearest pair distribution function is derived. With the assumption of random destruction of the nearest particle pairs, the evolution equation predicts the exponential probability distribution of the ages of the nearest particle pairs. Particle-resolved numerical simulations with moving particles are performed to verify this prediction. The equation is then used to derive the evolution equation for the particle–fluid–particle (PFP) stress, which is known to be related to hyperbolicity of the two-fluid equations. It is found that the relaxation time of the age probability distribution is also the relaxation time for the PFP stress. Guided by the closure terms in the PFP stress evolution equation, we study kinematics of the nearest particle pairs in the particle-resolved simulations for flows caused by sedimentation of the particles with initially isotropic and homogeneous particle distributions. At the steady states, the particle Reynolds numbers are around 20. Anisotropy and inhomogeneity of particle distributions are seen to develop in these flows. The mean distances to the nearest particles and evolution of the distribution of the Voronoi cell volumes are studied. We also found the PFP stress is closely related to the changes in these inter-particle scale quantities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Assessing North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Using Engineered-Synthetic Storms and a Physics-Based Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model

In this study, we design a statistical method to couple observations with a physics-based tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall model (TCR) and engineered-synthetic storms for assessing TC rainfall hazard. We first propose a bias-correction method to minimize the errors induced by TCR via matching the probability distribution of TCR-simulated historical TC rainfall with gauge observations. Then we assign occurrence probabilities to engineered-synthetic storms to reflect local climatology, through a resampling method that matches the probability distribution of a newly proposed storm parameter named rainfall potential (POT) in the synthetic dataset with that in the observation. POT is constructed to include several important storm parameters for TC rainfall such as TC intensity, duration, and distance and environmental humidity near landfall, and it is shown to be correlated with TCR-simulated rainfall. The proposed method has a satisfactory performance in reproducing the rainfall hazard curve in various locations in the continental United States; it is an improvement over the traditional joint probability method (JPM) for TC rainfall hazard assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Discrepancy quantification between experimental and simulated data of CO 2 adsorption isotherm using hierarchical Bayesian estimation

Here, to quantitatively analyze the inconsistencies commonly observed between experimental and simulated adsorption isotherms, parameter estimation of adsorption isotherm models was conducted by hierarchical Bayesian estimation with parameter uncertainties being quantified as probability distributions. The estimation method was implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to analyze multiple data sets obtained from different sources, including a publicly available database. To describe the discrepancies of experimental and simulated adsorption data, the simulation data was set as the reference to which experimental measurements were compared. We applied the proposed approach to analyze CO 2 adsorption isotherms that are measured and simulated on zeolite 13X and MIL-101(Cr). In these case studies, the discrepancy of CO 2 adsorption isotherm was successfully quantified between experimental measurements and predictions given by molecular simulations using Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC), where uncertainties were quantified as probability distributions. Furthermore, experimental data sets that agree well with the GCMC simulation have been identified, providing insights into experimental and measurement methods as well as choosing the right assumptions in the molecular simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Representing Complex Systems as Graphs for Debugging and Predictive Maintenance-Preliminary Thoughts

Representing complex systems as graphs enables use of mathematical tools to identify faults or predict failures. Graph nodes correspond to individual modules or subsystems, and edges link coupled system parts. ‘Probes’ measure the node outputs, monitoring the system health for unexpected behavior. Assuming one cannot probe every point, within a system, the fault correlates to a region—not necessarily the specific location. Bayesian networks trained to understand fault patterns can accurately identify the source. The diagnostic tool described aides debugging by pinpointing system failure causes. For predictive maintenance, probe data develop probability distribution functions describing subsystem mean time to failure. Unit lifetime can be estimated through these probability distributions. Two approaches include using Bayesian classifiers to infer the system failure source and developing maintenance schedules by treating systems as collections of random variables. When failure behavior does not follow a closed form function, use of similarity models is proposed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Model-based quantification of margins and uncertainties in metal additive manufacturing for process design and qualification

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) has the potential to enable the production of components with novel designs and material properties unachievable otherwise. However, process repeatability is a challenge, making qualification ill-defined and greatly reducing the utility of what could be an important manufacturing technology. In this work, a combination of modeling, uncertainty quantification (UQ), and experimentation are used in an effort to predict and bound the range of possible outcomes of the LPBF process. Quantities of interest predicted are melt pool dimensions, microstructure features, and mechanical distortions. A combination of high fidelity thermal-fluid models, microstructure growth models, and reduced fidelity, rapid thermal and mechanical models are used. Uncertainty propagation techniques are used to predict probability distributions of quantities of interest from estimates of process uncertainties. Repeated experiments are done to quantify observed probability distributions and compared to predicted distributions to determine if predictions are precise and accurate. Novel modeling methods are microstrucutre characterization techniques are also discussed. It is found that high fidelity models do a generally good job bounding experimentally observed melt pool morphologies for both bead-on-plate and powder bed cases. Microstructure models are able to bound a number of experimentally observed microstructure statistics, but with low precision due to challenges with calibrating the microstructure growth model parameters. A developed modified inherent strain distortion model does not accurately predict observed distortions. A lumped laser distortion model shows promise in being both accurately and precisely bounding observed outcomes from the deflection comb build, but requires further evaluation on more builds and geometries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Data for Spatial Analysis of Cell Patterning to Aid Genetic and Phenotypic Understanding of Grass Stomatal Density: A Case Study in Maize

Biological processes involve complex hierarchies where composite traits result from multiple component traits. However, holistically understanding of how sets of component traits interact to underpin genotype-to-phenotype relationships is generally lacking. Stomatal density (SD) is a tractable model system for exploring how high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) data could be exploited by a new spatial analysis approach to better understand a developmentally and functionally important trait. SD is a composite trait, resulting from various components related to cell identity and size, which are themselves governed by a series of spatio-developmental processes. Data from 192 recombinant inbred lines of maize [Zea mays (L.)] were analyzed by a new stomatal patterning phenotype (SPP) to (1) describe the average spatial probability distribution of the nearest neighboring stomata; (2) derive a core set of component traits related to cell size, cell packing, and positional probabilities; (3) build a structural equation model of component traits underlying SD; and (4) identify stomatal patterning quantitative trait loci (QTL). The core set of SPP-derived traits explained 74% of the variation in SD. Analyzing SPP component traits allowed some loci previously identified as generic SD QTL to be recognized as specific to lateral versus longitudinal elements of stomatal patterning. Therefore, this study highlights how novel insights can be gained by decomposing a composite trait (e.g., SD) into a set of component traits that were present in HTP data but not previously exploited.

AI/ML↗

Improved energies and local energies with weighted variational Monte Carlo

Neural network parametrizations have increasingly been used to represent the ground and excited states in variational Monte Carlo (VMC) with promising results. However, traditional VMC methods only optimize the wave function in regions of peak probability. The wave function is uncontrolled in the tails of the probability distribution, which can limit the accuracy of the trained wave function. To improve the approximation accuracy in the probability tails, this paper interprets VMC as a gradient flow in the space of wave functions, followed by a projection step. From this perspective, arbitrary probability distributions can be used in the projection step, allowing the user to prioritize accuracy in different regions of state space. Motivated by this theoretical perspective, the paper tests a weighted VMC method on the antiferromagnetic Heisenberg model for a periodic spin chain. Compared to traditional VMC, weighted VMC reduces the error in the ground state energy by a factor of 2, and it reduces the errors in the local energies away from the mode by large factors of 10 2 –10 4 .

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Blinking statistics and molecular counting in direct stochastic reconstruction microscopy (dSTORM)

Abstract Motivation Many recent advancements in single-molecule localization microscopy exploit the stochastic photoswitching of fluorophores to reveal complex cellular structures beyond the classical diffraction limit. However, this same stochasticity makes counting the number of molecules to high precision extremely challenging, preventing key insight into the cellular structures and processes under observation. Results Modelling the photoswitching behaviour of a fluorophore as an unobserved continuous time Markov process transitioning between a single fluorescent and multiple dark states, and fully mitigating for missed blinks and false positives, we present a method for computing the exact probability distribution for the number of observed localizations from a single photoswitching fluorophore. This is then extended to provide the probability distribution for the number of localizations in a direct stochastic optical reconstruction microscopy experiment involving an arbitrary number of molecules. We demonstrate that when training data are available to estimate photoswitching rates, the unknown number of molecules can be accurately recovered from the posterior mode of the number of molecules given the number of localizations. Finally, we demonstrate the method on experimental data by quantifying the number of adapter protein linker for activation of T cells on the cell surface of the T-cell immunological synapse. Availability and implementation Software and data available at https://github.com/lp1611/mol_count_dstorm. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Patel, Lekha↗

Supercooled Liquid Water Detection Capabilities from Ka-Band Doppler Profiling Radars: Moment-Based Algorithm Formulation and Assessment

The occurrence of supercooled liquid water in mixed-phase cloud (MPC) affects their cloud microphysical and radiative properties. The prevalence of MPCs in the mid- and high latitudes translates these effects to significant contributions to Earth’s radiative balance and hydrological cycle. The current study develops and assesses a radar-only, moment-based phase partition technique for the demarcation of supercooled liquid water volumes in arctic, MPC conditions. The study utilizes observations from the Ka band profiling radar, the collocated high spectral resolution lidar, and ambient temperature profiles from radio sounding deployments following a statistical analysis of 5.5 years of data (January 2014–May 2019) from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement observatory at the North Slope of Alaska. The ice/liquid phase partition occurs via a per-pixel, neighborhood-dependent algorithm based on the premise that the partitioning can be deduced by examining the mean values of locally sampled probability distributions of radar-based observables and then compare those against the means of climatologically derived, per-phase probability distributions. Analyzed radar observables include linear depolarization ratio (LDR), spectral width, and vertical gradients of reflectivity factor and radial velocity corrected for vertical air motion. Results highlight that the optimal supercooled liquid water detection skill levels are realized for the radar variable combination of spectral width and reflectivity vertical gradient, suggesting that radar-based polarimetry, in the absence of full LDR spectra, is not as critical as Doppler capabilities. The cloud phase masking technique is proven particularly reliable when applied to cloud tops with an Equitable Threat Score (ETS) of 65%; the detection of embedded supercooled layers remains much more uncertain (ETS = 27%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distinct universality classes of diffusive transport from full counting statistics

The hydrodynamic transport of local conserved densities furnishes an effective coarse-grained description of the dynamics of a many-body quantum system. However, the full quantum dynamics contains much more structure beyond the simplified hydrodynamic description. Here we show that systems with the same hydrodynamics can nevertheless belong to distinct dynamical universality classes, as revealed by new classes of experimental observables accessible in synthetic quantum systems, which can, for instance, measure simultaneous site-resolved snapshots of all of the particles in a system. Specifically, we study the full counting statistics of spin transport, whose first moment is related to linear-response transport, but the higher moments go beyond. We present an analytic theory of the full counting statistics of spin transport in various integrable and nonintegrable anisotropic one-dimensional spin models, including the XXZ spin chain. We find that spin transport, while diffusive on average, is governed by a distinct non-Gaussian dynamical universality class in the models considered. We consider a setup in which the left and right half of the chain are initially created at different magnetization densities, and consider the probability distribution of the magnetization transferred between the two half-chains. We derive a closed-form expression for the probability distribution of the magnetization transfer, in terms of random walks on the half-line. We show that this distribution strongly violates the large-deviation form expected for diffusive chaotic systems, and explain the physical origin of this violation. Here, we discuss the crossovers that occur as the initial state is brought closer to global equilibrium. Our predictions can directly be tested in experiments using quantum gas microscopes or superconducting qubit arrays.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗