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Airport Pricing Strategies

Conventional economic wisdom suggests that congestion pricing would be an appropriate response to cope with the growing congestion levels currently experienced at many airports. Several characteristics of aviation markets, however, may make naive congestion prices equal to the value of marginal travel delays a non-optimal response. This paper has developed a model of airport pricing that captures a number of these features. The model in particular reflects that airlines typically have market power and are engaged in oligopolistic competition at different sub-markets; that part of external travel delays that aircraft impose are internal to an operator and hence should not be accounted for in congestion tolls. We presented an analytical treatment for a simple bi-nodal symmetric network, which through the use of 'hyper-networks' would be readily applicable to dynamic problems (in discrete time) such as peak - off-peak differences, and some numerical exercises for the same symmetric network, which was only designed to illustrate the possible comparative static impacts of tolling, in addition to marginal equilibrium conditions as could be derived for the general model specification. Some main conclusions are that second-best optimal tolls are typically lower than what would be suggested by congestion costs alone and may even be negative, and that the toll as derived by Brueckner (2002) may not lead to an increase in total welfare. While Brueckner (2002) has made clear that congestion tolls on airports may be smaller than expected when congestion costs among aircraft are internal for a firm, our analysis adds to this that a further downward adjustment may be in order due to market power. The presence of market power (which causes prices to exceed marginal costs) may cause the pure congestion toll to be suboptimal, because the resulting decrease in demand is too high (the pure congestion tall does not take into account the decrease in consumer surplus). The various downward adjustments in welfare maximizing tolls may well cause the optimal values of these to be negative. Insofar as subsidization is considered unacceptable for whichever reason, our results warn that the most efficient among the non-negative tolls may actually be a zero toll; the pure congestion toll may actually decrease welfare compared to the base case. The model in this paper contains a few simplifying assumptions that may be relaxed in future work. Load factors and aircraft capacity are fixed in this model for simplicity. In a more advanced version of this model, load factors and aircraft capacity can be endogenized. This makes the derivation of the optimality conditions far more complicated, but it should be feasible in a numerical experiment. One can also add a fourth layer to the model, describing the airport's optimization problem. For example, the airport can maximize profits under a cost recovery constraint. The model then deals with interactions between four types of agents. No distinction is made between peak and off-peak traffic in this paper. Finally, the results of the numerical exercise in this paper need to be checked against an asymmetric equilibrium.

Pels, Eric

Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in a Spatially Explicit Price Model

Famine early warning organizations use data from multiple disciplines to assess food insecurity of communities and regions in less-developed parts of the World. In this paper we integrate several indicators that are available to enhance the information for preparation for and responses to food security emergencies. The assessment uses a price model based on the relationship between the suitability of the growing season and market prices for coarse grain. The model is then used to create spatially continuous maps of millet prices. The model is applied to the dry central and northern areas of West Africa, using satellite-derived vegetation indices for the entire region. By coupling the model with vegetation data estimated for one to four months into the future, maps are created of a leading indicator of potential price movements. It is anticipated that these maps can be used to enable early warning of famine and for planning appropriate responses.

Brown, Molly E.

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing

This work investigates the impact of battery technology advancement, charging infrastructure development, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing on vehicle adoption by 6 powertrain types in the United States through 2050. Using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model, we simulate 15 scenarios, examining individual cost factors and their combinations. We assess outcomes through market share, consumer surplus, and energy consumption. Results show that battery cost reductions are the strongest driver of EV adoption, increasing 2050 battery electric vehicle (BEV) share by 27 percentage points over baseline, raising annual consumer surplus by $511 per household, and reducing cumulative energy consumption by 16,610 trillion Btu. These gains are two to five times larger than those from other individual factors. Reducing home charging installation costs produces moderate impact, while TOU pricing alone yields only small gains, raising 2050 BEV market share by 1–2 percentage points. However, when cost factor improvements are combined, their effects are amplified beyond simple additivity. Pairing modest battery cost reductions with charging installation cost reductions and TOU pricing results in the largest 2050 BEV sales combined impact. The analysis demonstrates that moderate progress targeting multiple cost barriers may be more impactful than focusing on any single barrier.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Revisiting the relationship between demand growth and electricity prices

Here, in this Commentary, we aim to clarify the relationship between electricity demand and prices in the short- and longer-term. We outline three dimensions that shape this relationship: system capacity utilization, system expansion costs, and cost allocation in the rate design process. We explain why demand growth has historically been largely associated with falling electricity prices and explore arguments that future C&I demand growth may increase prices.

O'Shaughnessy, Eric [Lawrence Berkeley National La

Endogenous Interface Pricing for Consistent Transmission–Distribution Co-Optimization With Discrete Distribution Controls

This paper proposes an endogenous interface pricing model for day-ahead transmission–distribution co-optimization that co-determines the interface locational marginal price (LMP) and the transmission–distribution exchange, ensuring price–dispatch consistency while optimally scheduling discrete distribution controls. The formulation couples a DC optimal power flow (OPF) with a branch-flow AC OPF that schedules distributed energy resources (DERs), tap-changer settings, capacitor banks (CBs), and multi-period energy storage systems (ESSs) under feeder voltage and current limits, and is solved as a mixed-integer second-order cone program (MISOCP). In a T14–D33 system, coordinated device scheduling recovers about 90% of the distribution-to-transmission export achievable in a reference case that ignores distribution network (DN) limits, while satisfying a 1.05 p.u. voltage upper bound. In a T39–D34/D37/D123 system, a sequential decoupled benchmark produces interface LMP distortions up to 12.5% and a 7.28% mismatch in net export energy, whereas the proposed model removes these distortions and the associated settlement mismatches. Second-order cone (SOC) relaxation gaps remain below $10^{-3}$ in all cases.

Noh, Seung-Gil

mDNS to support local price server discovery with OpenADR 3 (mDNS for OpenADR 3) v1.0

This software contains a template VEN with local VTN service discovery over mDNS. It provides common starter code for an OpenADR3.0 VEN that advertises itself over mDNS, conducts local VTN service discovery over mDNS, connects to the VTN over HTTP(S), and regularly polls and acts on energy prices and events hosted on the VTN. The software is written to be easily modified to accommodate different VEN appliances, VEN-VTN networking protocols, user interfaces, and default responses, given the wide range of possible use cases for local price server discovery. OpenADR3.0 is an open communications standard from the OpenADR Alliance that is designed to provide two-way information exchange regarding e.g., dynamic price and event signals to utility applications, so that customers can modify their energy usage to save money and reduce their carbon footprint.

Nordman, Bruce [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Key findings from this year’s report include: -18.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2023, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 80.2 GWAC across 47 states. Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to -$\$1.43$/WAC (or $\$1.08$/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010. Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 6% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. -Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new 2023 projects increased slightly to $\$46$/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $\$31$/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $\$35$/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). -Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $\$45$/MWh in 2023. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($\$27$/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($\$67$/MWh). -Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $\$1.1$ billion in benefits. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $\$15$/MWh more market value than their costs in 2023. -Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $\$13.7$ billion in net benefits in 2023. We estimate U.S. health benefits of $\$24$/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $\$101$/MWh. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Deployment of 52 new PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from more than 100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -Looking ahead, a massive pipeline of at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity dominates the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built. -For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Potential Impacts of Dynamic Electricity Pricing in California: Load Shape and Customer Bill Impacts Under Elastic Customer Response

The increasing penetration of renewable energy in California has intensified grid management challenges, exemplified by the “duck curve” and the resulting need for steep ramping and curtailment of renewables. To address these issues, dynamic electricity tariffs that vary in near-real time are being considered to incentivize customers to shift demand and support the grid. This study extends previous work on the bill impacts of such tariffs in the absence of load response by quantifying the system-level and customer impacts of load response based on customer price elasticity. Customer-level load response modeling was conducted using meter data from 411,000 customers across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Customer demand elasticity was estimated using literature-based values, with scenarios ranging from low to high elasticity, including an automation-enhanced scenario. Results indicate that universal adoption of, and response to, dynamic tariffs can significantly reduce peak net load (by 15%) and maximum ramping requirements (by 20%) with moderate elasticity, delivering demand response resources comparable to or exceeding current programs at all elasticity levels. Bill analysis shows that, when responding elastically to dynamic prices, most non-PV customers experience modest savings, while PV customers may see higher effective rates due to lower compensation for exports during low-price periods. Emissions analysis reveals a reduction in per-kWh emissions system-wide, with a total absolute load increase of 2% accompanied by a negligible absolute emissions increase. The study concludes that while dynamic tariffs offer substantial grid benefits, customer bill savings under modeled response behaviors may be too modest to drive widespread adoption without additional incentives or enabling technologies. Future research should model flexible loads and advanced control technologies with greater fidelity to better represent the potential opportunities of dynamic tariffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Who Has the Upper HAND in a Hurricane? Flood Risk, Weather Shocks, and Property Prices

Flood risk is increasing in the United States, but how property markets respond to this hazard is unclear. Focusing on Houston, Texas, we analyze changes in flood risk capitalization in property prices after three major Gulf Coast hurricanes. Here, we compare two measures of flood risk–floodplain designations from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and a hydrologically-imputed, continuous measure, Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND). HAND affects property prices after a storm in intuitive ways, while we observe counterintuitive post-storm price premiums within FEMA floodplains. Plausibly exogenous measures like HAND may be useful tools for characterizing flood risk in economic analyses.

Plough, Julian A. [University of North Carolina, C

A parametric determination of transport aircraft price

Cost per unit weight and other airframe and engine cost relations are given. Power equations representing these relations are presented for six airplane groups: general aircraft, turboprop transports, small jet transports, conventional jet transports, wide-body transports, supersonic transports, and for reciprocating, turboshaft, and turbothrust engines. Market prices calculated for a number of aircraft by use of the equations together with the aircraft characteristics are in reasonably good agreement with actual prices. Such price analyses are of value in the assessment of new aircraft devices and designs and potential research and development programs.

Anderson, J. L.

Product pricing in the Solar Array Manufacturing Industry - An executive summary of SAMICS

Capabilities, methodology, and a description of input data to the Solar Array Manufacturing Industry Costing Standards (SAMICS) are presented. SAMICS were developed to provide a standardized procedure and data base for comparing manufacturing processes of Low-cost Solar Array (LSA) subcontractors, guide the setting of research priorities, and assess the progress of LSA toward its hundred-fold cost reduction goal. SAMICS can be used to estimate the manufacturing costs and product prices and determine the impact of inflation, taxes, and interest rates, but it is limited by its ignoring the effects of the market supply and demand and an assumption that all factories operate in a production line mode. The SAMICS methodology defines the industry structure, hypothetical supplier companies, and manufacturing processes and maintains a body of standardized data which is used to compute the final product price. The input data includes the product description, the process characteristics, the equipment cost factors, and production data for the preparation of detailed cost estimates. Activities validating that SAMICS produced realistic price estimates and cost breakdowns are described.

Chamberlain, R. G.

Sensitivity analysis of the add-on price estimate for the silicon web growth process

The web growth process, a silicon-sheet technology option, developed for the flat plate solar array (FSA) project, was examined. Base case data for the technical and cost parameters for the technical and commercial readiness phase of the FSA project are projected. The process add on price, using the base case data for cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials and utilities, and the production parameters such as growth rate and run length, using a computer program developed specifically to do the sensitivity analysis with improved price estimation are analyzed. Silicon price, sheet thickness and cell efficiency are also discussed.

Mokashi, A. R.

Price estimates for the production of wafers from silicon ingots

The status of the inside-diameter sawing, (ID), multiblade sawing (MBS), and fixed-abrasive slicing technique (FAST) processes are discussed with respect to the estimated price each process adds on to the price of the final photovoltaic module. The expected improvements in each process, based on the knowledge of the current level of technology, are projected for the next two to five years and the expected add-on prices in 1983 and 1986 are estimated.

Mokashi, A. R.

Price Estimation Guidelines

Improved Price Estimation Guidelines, IPEG4, program provides comparatively simple, yet relatively accurate estimate of price of manufactured product. IPEG4 processes user supplied input data to determine estimate of price per unit of production. Input data include equipment cost, space required, labor cost, materials and supplies cost, utility expenses, and production volume on industry wide or process wide basis.

Chamberlain, R. G.

Polycrystalline silicon material availability and market pricing outlook for 1980 through 1988

The results of the second JPL update to an original report to assess the availability and prices of polycrystalline Si for solar cells in the 1983-88 interval are reported. It is noted that the demand for poly-Si for solar cells competes with the demand for the same material for semiconductors, although the solar cell industry can use material rejected from the semiconductor industry. A sufficient supply is projected for the 6 yr period, rising from 3224 metric tons to 10,220 metric tons in 1988, with prices dropping from the 1980 level of $140/kg to $25/kg. The price reduction and improved production are noted to be due in large part to DOE efforts at defining lower-cost production processes.

Costogue, E. N.

Estimating Prices of Products

Company-wide or process-wide production simulated. Price Estimation Guidelines (IPEG) program provides simple, accurate estimates of prices of manufactured products. Simplification of SAMIS allows analyst with limited time and computing resources to perform greater number of sensitivity studies. Although developed for photovoltaic industry, readily adaptable to standard assembly-line type of manufacturing industry. IPEG program estimates annual production price per unit. IPEG/PC program written in TURBO PASCAL.

Aster, R. W.

The Shuttle Cost and Price model

The Shuttle Cost and Price (SCP) model was developed as a tool to assist in evaluating major aspects of Shuttle operations that have direct and indirect economic consequences. It incorporates the major aspects of NASA Pricing Policy and corresponds to the NASA definition of STS operating costs. An overview of the SCP model is presented and the cost model portion of SCP is described in detail. Selected recent applications of the SCP model to NASA Pricing Policy issues are presented.

Leary, Katherine

Route Monopolie and Optimal Nonlinear Pricing

To cope with air traffic growth and congested airports, two solutions are apparent on the supply side: 1) use larger aircraft in the hub and spoke system; or 2) develop new routes through secondary airports. An enlarged route system through secondary airports may increase the proportion of route monopolies in the air transport market.The monopoly optimal non linear pricing policy is well known in the case of one dimension (one instrument, one characteristic) but not in the case of several dimensions. This paper explores the robustness of the one dimensional screening model with respect to increasing the number of instruments and the number of characteristics. The objective of this paper is then to link and fill the gap in both literatures. One of the merits of the screening model has been to show that a great varieD" of economic questions (non linear pricing, product line choice, auction design, income taxation, regulation...) could be handled within the same framework.VCe study a case of non linear pricing (2 instruments (2 routes on which the airline pro_ddes customers with services), 2 characteristics (demand of services on these routes) and two values per characteristic (low and high demand of services on these routes)) and we show that none of the conclusions of the one dimensional analysis remain valid. In particular, upward incentive compatibility constraint may be binding at the optimum. As a consequence, they may be distortion at the top of the distribution. In addition to this, we show that the optimal solution often requires a kind of form of bundling, we explain explicitly distortions and show that it is sometimes optimal for the monopolist to only produce one good (instead of two) or to exclude some buyers from the market. Actually, this means that the monopolist cannot fully apply his monopoly power and is better off selling both goods independently.We then define all the possible solutions in the case of a quadratic cost function for a uniform distribution of agent types and explain the implications for airlines in terms of service differentiation.

Tournut, Jacques