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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A method to predict texture effect on ion beam channeling analysis of polycrystals and the application to study the mosaic spreading effect in highly oriented pyrolytic graphite

We propose a method to convert the channeling Rutherford backscattering spectrum yield map of a single crystal to a polycrystal through a matrix rotation technique. The rotation matrix is determined by the deviation of the crystal axial direction from the original z axis. The final yield map is created after averaging the rotated yields using the texture function as the weight factor. For highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) exhibiting mosaic spread, the method leads to a Gaussian kernel averaging of the map obtained from a single crystal. The yield map of a single crystal is obtained by a simulation of ion trajectories in a potential field described by Moliere screened Coulomb potentials. Yield maps are calculated under various σ values (standard deviations of mosaic spread). The simulated results are compared with experimental results obtained using 1.2 MeV alpha particle. σ is extracted through the best fitting, demonstrating that the method can be used to obtain texture details. The effects of mosaic spread on minimum yield χ min and the half-width at half maximum of angular scans ψ ½ are systematically modeled and compared with previous theoretical equations. The study also shows that previous theoretical equations are valid only at small σ values. The proposed method can be applied to any type of polycrystal and is not limited to HOPG. It provides near-surface mosaic spread and crystallography information with a longitudinal depth resolution of tens of nanometers and is not influenced by grain shapes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

On-Line Prediction of Resistant Force During Soil–Tool Interaction

For off-road vehicles such as excavators and wheel loaders, a large portion of energy is consumed to overcome the soil resistant force in the digging process. For optimal control of the digging tool, a high-fidelity model of the soil–tool interaction force is important to reduce energy consumption. Here, in this paper, an on-line soil resistant force prediction method is proposed. In this method, a hybrid model, which combines a physical model and a data-driven model, is used for the force prediction. In addition, the parameters of the hybrid model can be updated on-line based on real-time data. Comparisons with experimental data demonstrate that the proposed prediction method has an average error of around 12.7%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

An infrasound source analysis of the OSIRIS-REx sample return capsule hypersonic re-entry

The OSIRIS-REx sample return capsule's hypersonic re-entry into the atmosphere is a rare opportunity to test a variety of sonic boom source models since the projectile dimensions are well characterized. While the as-flown flight path is unknown, the predicted flight path enables a rough approximation of the source Mach number and location. Six infrasound microphones deployed in the boom carpet along the predicted flight path recorded impulsive signals from the OSIRIS-REx re-entry. Using a suite of atmosphere profiles and the geometric acoustics approximation, we estimate locations with uncertainty estimates along the flight path from which the signals were emitted. Acoustic overpressure and signal duration predictions from Whitham's far field theory, Carlson's simplified sonic boom prediction method, and a drag-dominated hypersonic model are analyzed with uncertainty estimates from the location estimate. While the Carlson simplified sonic boom prediction method could be accurate, our preference is for the drag-dominated source model. Using this source model with an inviscid Burgers's equation solver for propagation, we obtained an excellent match to the recorded data. In conclusion, these results will help better inform future sample return capsule re-entry observation campaigns as well as contribute to a better understanding of high altitude infrasonic sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Six Machine-Learning Methods for Predicting Hospital-Stay Duration for Patients with Sepsis: A Comparative Study

Sepsis is a life-threatening medical condition that, if not treated promptly, can result in tissue damage, organ failure, and death. According to the Centers for Disease Control, about 270,000 individuals die of sepsis in the US each year. Further, sepsis expenditures accounted for 13% of total US hospital costs in 2013, totaling more than $24 billion. Our project objectives were to determine if Machine Learning algorithms could reliably predict hospital stay duration for patients with sepsis. The data set we used has been de-identified and is freely available through the BupaR package. The data includes 1050 cases, 15214 events, and 16 types of actions related to sepsis patient care. First, we used process mining to determine how long each patient was in the hospital. Using BupaR’s functions, we created several process model graphs. These process models depict the movement of patients at a hospital and provide duration data for each patent case. Second, we identified outlier data and created two dataset versions: one with and one without outliers. We then applied the following analysis methods: Linear Regression, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Neural Networks, XGBoost, and lightGBM. We compared the model validations for the six machine learning models using the same data-splitting method. We found that the XGBoost model had the best prediction accuracy of 73.9 percent for cases with outliers, and 79 percent for cases without outliers. We also found that the lightGBM model had the lowest mean absolute error between prediction and actual duration in days with 3.66 days for the case with outliers, and 2.4 days for the case without outliers. These two models outperformed the other four models. This work will be enhanced in the future by exploring new prediction algorithms and comparing them with the results of this study.

Chen, Lingtao↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Realistic Full-Scale 3D Modeling of Turning Using Coupled Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics and Finite Element Method for Predicting Cutting Forces

Computational modelling is an effective technique for understanding the complex physics of machining. Large deformations, material separation, and high computational requirements are the key challenges faced while simulating machining. This work introduces a full-scale three-dimensional model of turning operations using a combined approach based on the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and Finite Element (FE) methods. By exploiting the advantages of each method, this approach leads to high-fidelity coupled SPH-FE machining models. Cutting forces and chip morphology are the primary results of interest. The machining models are validated with the results of turning experiments. Two-dimensional machining model underpredicts the cutting force and feed force by approximately 49% and 70%, respectively. Moreover, passive force cannot be predicted using the two-dimensional model. On the other hand, with the three-dimensional models developed in this manuscript, the difference between the total simulated force and experimentally measured force is ∼17%. The chip morphologies correlate with experiments in terms of the direction of the chip movement and the “long” continuous chips observed while turning Al 6061. This work expands the realm of machining simulations from two-dimensional orthogonal machining or sectional three-dimensional model to a full-scale realistic simulation. The encouraging simulation results show the potential to study more complex phenomena, such as machining stability and tool path modulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Lattice Boltzmann Method for Predicting Porous Transport Layer Performance During Electrolysis

Electrolysis, the splitting of water into oxygen and hydrogen using electricity, is a sustainable way to produce green hydrogen for energy storage. In polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) water electrolysis, water is brought into contact with charged catalyst layers and electrochemically separated into oxygen and hydrogen. The hydrogen product formed at the cathode is carried through the catalyst layer for eventual collection, while the oxygen by-product formed at the anode is removed from the surface via a multiphase interaction with circulating water and a solid porous transport layer (PTL). The design of this PTL aids in the detachment and advection of the oxygen by-product and thereby plays a role in the overall efficacy of the catalyst. In this presentation, we present our initial results modeling this multiphase system using a single-component, multiphase lattice Boltzmann method. We use the Shan-Chen model describing inter-particle forces to capture both the cohesion of the water (liquid) and oxygen (gas) phases and their interaction with the PTL (solid) (Shan and Chen, 1993). We use a Carnahan-Starling equation of state to model the effective density governing these inter-particle interactions which allows us to model this relatively high density ratio system (Carnahan and Starling, 1969). With these simulations, we show that the geometry and heterogeneity of the PTL geometry plays a large role in its ability to move oxygen away from the catalyst layer and the resulting bubble structures that are formed within the PTL. The current work demonstrates these effects using synthesized PTL geometries and 2D physics, which will be extended to experimentally-imaged PTL sections and 3D algorithms in the near future.

Boltzmann↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Comparison of Electronic Structure Methods for Predicting the Hydrogenation Energies of Candidate Molecules for Hydrogen Storage

The development of novel energy materials and fuels is required to expand current available energy sources. Aiming to reach this goal, there is growing interest in using molecular hydrogen as an energy carrier due to its abundance and high energy density. Liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHCs) are a promising route to the large-scale storage and transport of hydrogen for use in the energy economy. The search for thermodynamically viable LOHC molecules for real world use has led to a set of constraints on the dehydrogenation enthalpy and the minimum gravimetric hydrogen capacity. These constraints allow one to formulate the search for an ideal LOHC candidate molecule as an optimization problem well suited to the strengths of machine learning and artificial intelligence computational approaches. A critical barrier to a large-scale, high-throughput screening of LOHC candidate molecules is the lack of reliable training data. Computational electronic structure methods including density functional theory, coupled cluster approximations, and diffusion Monte Carlo can be used to provide training data where experimental data are either unreliable or do not exist. In this work, we use these methods to calculate the dehydrogenation energies and enthalpies of candidate LOHC molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wildland Fires in the Subtropical Hill Forests of Southeastern Bangladesh

The first ever comprehensive study on wildland fires in Bangladesh is carried out to develop a fire prevention and prediction method. The major causes of huge wildland fires (88%) in the subtropical Chittagong Hill forest (43% of total) of southern Bangladesh are reported as shifting cultivation, grazing and unauthorized settlement. We used satellite hotspot (HS) data from 2003 to 2021 (a total of 54,669 HSs) to clarify the spatio-temporal structure of wildland fires. Fire weather conditions were analyzed using various weather data and synoptic-scale weather maps at different air levels. Fires concentrated from March through April or a transitional period from the dry season, caused by the Asian winter monsoon, to the wet season, due to the Asian summer monsoon. Fire occurrence depended on dry conditions and pre-monsoon showers and their timing. The difference in 925 hPa heights of high and low pressure systems may be attributed to the different types of the Asian winter and summer monsoons. The average maximum air temperature and incident shortwave solar energy in April were the highest and strongest, contributing fire-prone weather conditions. Based on the analysis, a fire prevention and prediction method will be developed, and this report may also facilitate the establishment of future CO 2 reduction measures for Bangladesh.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new method for predicting hurricane rapid intensification based on co-occurring environmental parameters

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) that undergo Rapid Intensification (RI) can pose serious socioeconomic threats and can potentially result in major damaging impacts along coastal areas. Considering the complexity of various physical mechanisms that play a role in RI and its relatively low probability of occurrence, predicting RI remains a major operational challenge. In this study, we propose a simple deterministic binary classification model based on the co-occurrence of environmental parameters (MCE) to predict an RI event. More specifically, the model determines the possibility of RI based on a simple count of the number of environmental predictors deemed favorable and unfavorable. We compare our model results to logistic regression (LR) and decision tree (DT) models, well-trained using the same set of environmental predictors. Results reveal that at an RI threshold of 30 kt, the MCE exhibits a critical success index score of 0.233 which is 14% higher than DT and LR model performances. When tested at multiple RI thresholds, the MCE displays relatively higher skill scores across multiple metrics. By simultaneously evaluating the favorability of predictors, the MCE is able to comparatively reduce the number of false alarms predicted when certain predictors are unfavorable toward RI. Interpreting these model results to gain a physical understanding of how co-occurring environmental parameters can affect RI, we highlight future directions for using models based on the MCE approach to understand and predict TC RI as well as other meteorological extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multitask methods for predicting molecular properties from heterogeneous data

Data generation remains a bottleneck in training surrogate models to predict molecular properties. We demonstrate that multitask Gaussian process regression overcomes this limitation by leveraging both expensive and cheap data sources. In particular, we consider training sets constructed from coupled-cluster (CC) and density functional theory (DFT) data. We report that multitask surrogates can predict at CC-level accuracy with a reduction in data generation cost by over an order of magnitude. Of note, our approach allows the training set to include DFT data generated by a heterogeneous mix of exchange–correlation functionals without imposing any artificial hierarchy on functional accuracy. More generally, the multitask framework can accommodate a wider range of training set structures—including the full disparity between the different levels of fidelity—than existing kernel approaches based on Δ-learning although we show that the accuracy of the two approaches can be similar. Consequently, multitask regression can be a tool for reducing data generation costs even further by opportunistically exploiting existing data sources.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Metal-insulator and magnetic phase diagram of Ca 2 RuO 4 from auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo and dynamical mean field theory

Layered perovskite ruthenium oxides exhibit a striking series of metal-insulator and magnetic-nonmagnetic phase transitions easily tuned by temperature, pressure, epitaxy, and nonlinear drive. In this work, we combine results from two complementary state-of-the-art many-body methods, auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo and dynamical mean field theory, to determine the low-temperature phase diagram of Ca 2 RuO 4 . Both methods predict a low-temperature, pressure-driven metal-insulator transition accompanied by a ferromagnetic-antiferromagnetic transition. Further, the properties of the ferromagnetic state vary nonmonotonically with pressure and are dominated by the ruthenium $d_{xy}$ orbital, while the properties of the antiferromagnetic state are dominated by the $d_{xz}$ and $d_{yz}$ orbitals. Differences in the details of the predictions of the two methods are analyzed. This work is theoretically important as it presents the first application of the auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo method to an orbitally degenerate system with both Mott and Hunds physics and provides an important comparison of the dynamical mean field and auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo methods.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Applying machine learning methods to prediction problems of lattice observables

We discuss the prediction of critical behavior of lattice observables in SU(2) and SU(3) gauge theories. We show that feed-forward neural network, trained on the lattice configurations of gauge fields as input data, finds correlations with the target observable, which is also true in the critical region where the neural network has not been trained. We have verified that the neural network constructs a gauge-invariant function and this property does not change over the entire range of the parameter space.

Gerasimeniuk, Nikolai↗
DOE OSTI2023

A reactive tracer method for predicting EGS reservoir geometry and thermal lifetime: development and field validation

The project summarized here (DOE Award No. DE-EE0006764) was intended to develop a methodology for predicting advective heat transfer in fracture-dominated crystalline rock. Our goal was to determine if a combination of inert and reactive tracers could adequately constrain the effective heat transfer surface area between an injection-production well pair. Our approach consisted of: 1. developing a novel computational framework; 2. Performing heat and tracer experiments at meso-scale; and 3. Comparing predictions of advective heat transfer to the “true” thermal breakthrough measured at the Altona site. Below is a summary of project activities/findings, a summary of project tasks, and a conclusion

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Open-Source Framework for Characterizing Urban Energy Models: Integrating Top-Down and Bottom-Up Methods to Predict Residential Buildings Characteristics: Preprint

Bottom-up urban energy models are crucial for understanding current energy use patterns and informing design strategies. However, accurately characterizing these models to represent different communities remains a challenge due to the extensive data needed for simulating existing energy use behavior. This data includes information related to human activities and building characteristics, all of which correlate with socioeconomic factors. To overcome this challenge, we developed an automated framework that utilizes both top-down and bottom-up data, to predict unknown building and occupant characteristics that are needed for more accurate and equitable modeling and analytics. Our framework, integrated into the URBANopt district energy modeling platform, uses statistical data models from ResStock. URBANopt models co-located buildings and neighborhoods. At this scale there are data gaps in building characteristic data, such as materials, insulation, occupancy, income, and energy usage of the buildings. To address this data gap, we use ResStock data, representative at the census tract scale, and develop machine-learning and deeplearning techniques to disaggregate it to individual buildings. By mapping unique occupant, building and economic properties to URBANopt energy models, we gain detailed insights into the variability of building energy use across different neighborhoods. This insight helps deploy technologies for co-located buildings and supports targeted upgrades for communities with unique economic and demographic characteristics, ensuring energy equity. Accurate characterization of energy models allows us to develop equitable strategies tailored to diverse neighborhoods, whether underserved or affluent. Our automated framework streamlines energy modeling and provides a reliable tool for building energy characterization.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systems and methods for predictive lane change

A system includes a controller comprising at least one processor coupled to a memory storing instructions that, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the at least one processor to perform operations comprising: receiving information indicative of operation of the vehicle and of a driving condition for the vehicle; determining that a speed of the vehicle is less than a target speed for the vehicle based on the received information; determining, in response to the determination that the speed is less than the target speed, that the lane change and takeover event is at least one of feasible or efficient based on the received information; and providing, in response to the determination regarding the lane change and takeover event, a notification.

Borhan, Hoseinali↗