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At least 55 records · Page 3

Advancing Understanding of Geothermal Representation in the Power Sector to Accelerate Deployment

Driven mostly by decarbonization goals, geothermal interest in the US power sector has grown considerably, gradually evolving from being considered a niche technology, to being recognized as a viable source of clean, baseload, grid-balancing power, and renewable electric power generation. Furthermore, recent technical advances that could greatly accelerate deployment in the near future, and US federal incentives for low-carbon generation technologies, including geothermal, can enable opportunities for integrating geothermal into utilities resource planning portfolios. However, in general, utilities do not have in-house expertise to evaluate geothermal technologies and its potential role in helping decarbonize the grid as well as help them achieve their individual decarbonization goals. To date, geothermal is rarely included in Capacity Expansion Models (CEM) which utilities use in their planning activities and resource/technologies prioritization. To this end, EPRI and NREL are working together in a DOE-GTO funded research project to improve geothermal understanding (opportunities, value, risks) among the power industry to help accelerate geothermal deployment. In the present paper we describe the approach and preliminary findings of this work, focused on two topics: 1) Expand the degree of understanding on the value, opportunity, and risk of geothermal technologies among utilities and related companies/groups, specifically around geothermal for power generation. 2) Improve representation of geothermal power technologies in capacity expansion models (CEM).

capacity expansion models↗

Opportunities for Renewable Energy, Storage, Vehicle Electrification, and Demand Response in Rajasthan's Power Sector

To support the government of Rajasthan and inform state policy makers, regulators, planners, and system operators on power system trends, NREL undertook a long-term capacity expansion planning study. We used NREL's flagship capacity expansion planning tool for the power sector called the Regional Energy Deployment System India (ReEDS-India) to understand the generation and transmission needs of Rajasthan through 2050. NREL's modeling framework includes co-optimized decisions about generation, energy storage, transmission, and reserves investments needed to meet future demand while maintaining reliable electricity supply. Scenario analysis was conducted to assess a range of potential future scenarios, providing insight for planning agencies, utilities, and local stakeholders about key trends and sources of uncertainty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

India Power Sector Reliability Analysis [Slides]

The objective of the study is to assess pathways for India to achieve its 2070 power sector goals reliably and cost-effectively by considering various supply- and demand-side factors to support planning by national stakeholders including the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

08 HYDROGEN↗

Measuring labor productivity dynamics in U.S. industrial and electric power sectors: a case study (2014–2023)

This study proposes a subsystem methodology for measuring labor productivity in the U.S. industrial and electric power sectors by leveraging public data available between 2014 and 2023. Building on Pasinetti’s framework and subsequent developments, the approach employs Vertically Integrated Sectors (VIS) to account for both direct and indirect productivity effects. The novelty of this work is twofold. First, it enables the estimation of productivity trends over time, providing a robust foundation for empirical analysis. Second, it applies the methodology to a case study of the electric generation sector, highlighting its practical relevance. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) tool, the study reveals significant discrepancies between conventional productivity measures and those derived from the VIS approach. Furthermore, the proposed method aligns with the principles of Integrated Energy Systems by capturing the interrelations among generation, distribution, storage, and consumption. This alignment underscores its utility and applications for energy-related policy and planning. Overall, the findings contribute to more precise labor productivity assessments, supporting informed decision-making and future research. Additionally, the method highlights the importance of considering the whole supply chain, providing interrelated metrics for labor productivity which includes both, direct and indirect effects on the final labor productivity metric. By incorporating intersectoral dependencies, this method offers a more comprehensive and accurate measure of labor productivity compared to traditional metrics.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Decarbonization of the Electric Power Sector and Implications for Low-Cost Hydrogen Production from Water Electrolysis

Increasing development of wind and solar generation in the power sector can create economic opportunities for the deployment of water electrolyzers that produce hydrogen. Temporal variation in the marginal cost of energy in future decarbonized grids can make it favorable for electrolyzers to dispatchably ramp hydrogen production up and down in response to low- and high-cost times. Using this strategy, low-cost hydrogen production is enabled by electrolyzers that are low-capital cost and tolerant to frequent on/off cycling. Ramping down hydrogen production to a designated turndown ratio can avoid performance degradation caused by on/off cycling by not shutting the electrolyzer completely off. This comes with a slight cost penalty which can be minimized if the turndown ratio is low (i.e., the system ramps down hydrogen production to close to zero). These results suggest that electrolyzers integrated into future power systems are likely to benefit from the ability to ramp operation up and down quickly and operate in a standby mode. This analysis forms a basis for comparative tradeoffs between electrolyzer capital cost, operating strategy, and system durability and demonstrates the importance of considering all three factors in technoeconomic analysis.

capital cost↗

Measuring and Valuing Resilience: A Literature Review for the Power Sector

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) partnered with NREL to address some of the key research needs for New York State in advancing power sector resilience. NYSERDA requested a literature review specifically focused on measuring and valuing energy resilience to identify existing work and gaps in research to inform NYSERDA's energy resilience efforts. While the costs of resilience investments are relatively well known, it is also important to adequately convey the benefits of these investments. This often means assigning metrics and estimating the dollar value of potential advantages of resilience enhancements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Decarbonization of the power sector with CCS: Case study in two regions in the U.S. and lessons for Latin America

This paper estimates potential changes in the total systems cost (TSC) of two RTOs of the United States (U.S.), MISO-N and SPP RTO West, under the traditional decarbonization pathway of replacement of fossil-power plants with variable renewable energy (VRE) and the less traditional pathway of retrofitting fossil fuel units with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Although the power mixes of MISO-N and SPP RTO West are particular to those regions, the results can apply to other regions, including Latin American countries that are planning to decarbonize their power sectors. This case study serves to highlight lessons on the difference of technology costs between these two pathways, as well as the cost associated with decarbonization rates close to 100%.

Pena-Cabra, Ivonne A.↗

Decarbonization of the power sector with CCS: Case study in two regions in the U.S. and lessons for Latin America

This work consists of estimates of potential changes in the total systems cost (TSC) of two RTOs of the United States (U.S.), MISO-N and SPP RTO West, under the traditional decarbonization pathway of replacement of fossil-power plants with variable renewable energy (VRE) and the less traditional pathway of retrofitting fossil fuel units with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Although the power mixes of MISO-N and SPP RTO West are particular to these regions, results can apply to other regions, including Latin American countries that are planning to decarbonize their power sectors. This case study serves to highlight lessons on differences in technology costs between these two pathways, as well as the cost associated with decarbonization rates close to 100%.

Pena-Cabra, Ivonne A.↗

Least-Cost Pathways for India's Electric Power Sector

The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

COVID-19 and the Power Sector in Southeast Asia: Impacts and Opportunities

The COVID-19 pandemic is unique among the range of threats encountered over the last century, and its specific impacts do not necessarily resemble those of other disasters. In the near term, the pandemic is causing demand shocks, workforce impacts, supply chain complications, and a global, economic contraction with long-term consequences as yet unknown. In contrast, with natural disasters the principal impacts are more acute. These include infrastructure destruction, displaced populations, and often localized economic impact; however, the long-term response to both of these threats–pandemics and destructive forces of nature–requires similar approaches to building short-term and long-term resilience that prepare power sectors for safe and reliable operation during times of disruption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrating air quality and health considerations into power sector decarbonization strategies

Climate change and public health are two interconnected societal challenges. Curbing fossil-based electricity generation reduces the emissions of both CO 2 and air pollutants, which brings tangible health benefits from improved air quality. The potential health benefits from decarbonizing the grid are enormous, immediate, and widespread. From renewable portfolio standards to carbon market, the health co-benefits from clean electricity policies often outweigh their policy costs. As climate action goes local, framing decarbonization around health benefits also makes it more personally relevant and economically attractive. Yet, to date, the health impacts have largely been viewed as ancillary benefits from decarbonization, rather than as a core consideration when energy strategies are formed, assessed and implemented. When strategic choices are made about retiring old infrastructure and building new ones, bringing public health to the center of the discussion can generate greater health benefits with more equitable distribution. Here we identify concrete ways to incorporate air quality and health considerations into power sector decarbonization strategies. We draw insights mainly from empirical and modeling evidence for the United States. These insights are generally applicable and could guide health-oriented decarbonization efforts in other countries as well.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Demand-side solutions in the US building sector could achieve deep emissions reductions and avoid over $100 billion in power sector costs

Buildings are energy-intensive and a primary source of US end-use sector carbon emissions. Although building emissions today are 25% below their 2005 peak, far deeper reductions are needed to reach the US 2050 net-zero emissions goal. However, plausible decarbonization pathways that consider both buildings and their interactions with the power grid remain poorly understood. Here, we couple detailed modeling of building energy use and the grid to quantify building decarbonization potential and associated grid impacts. We find up to a 91% reduction in building CO 2 emissions from 2005 levels by 2050 using a portfolio of building efficiency, demand flexibility, and electrification measures alongside rapid grid decarbonization. Building efficiency and flexibility could generate up to $107 billion in annual power system cost savings by 2050, offsetting over a third of the incremental cost of full grid decarbonization. Our results underscore multiple benefits of demand-side solutions for deep decarbonization of US buildings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) Power Sector Technology Roadmap 2021

The National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) is a research consortium formed to accelerate transformative research in desalination and treatment to lower the cost and energy required to produce clean water from nontraditional water sources and realize a circular water economy. NAWI’s goal is to enable the manufacturing of energy-efficient desalination technologies in the United States at a lower cost with the same (or higher) quality and reduced environmental impact for 90 percent of nontraditional water sources within the next 10 years. The nontraditional source waters of interest include brackish water; seawater; produced and extracted water; power, mining, industrial, municipal, and agricultural waste waters. When these desalination and treatment technologies are fully developed and utilized, they will be able to contribute to the water needs for many existing end-use sectors. NAWI has identified five end-use sectors that are critical to the U.S. economy for further exploration: Power, Resource Extraction, Industry, Municipal, and Agriculture (PRIMA). This Power Sector roadmap aims to advance desalination and treatment of nontraditional source waters for beneficial use in public water supplies by identifying research and development (R&D) opportunities that help overcome existing treatment challenges. Under NAWI’s vision, the transition from a linear to a circular water economy with nontraditional source waters will be achieved by advancing desalination and reuse technologies in six key areas: Autonomous operations, Precision separations, Resilient treatment and transport, Intensified brine management, Modular membrane systems, and Electrified treatment systems, collectively known as the A-PRIME areas. Technological advances in these different areas will enable nontraditional source waters to achieve pipe parity with traditional supplies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage

Decarbonized power systems are critical to mitigate climate change, yet methods to achieve a reliable and resilient near-zero power system are still under exploration. This study develops an hourly power system simulation model considering high-resolution geological constraints for carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage to explore the optimal solution for a reliable and resilient near-zero power system. This is applied to 31 provinces in China by simulating 10,450 scenarios combining different electricity storage durations and interprovincial transmission capacities, with various shares of abated fossil power with carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage. Here, we show that allowing up to 20% abated fossil fuel power generation in the power system could reduce the national total power shortage rate by up to 9.0 percentages in 2050 compared with a zero fossil fuel system. A lowest-cost scenario with 16% abated fossil fuel power generation in the system even causes 2.5% lower investment costs in the network (or $16.8 billion), and also increases system resilience by reducing power shortage during extreme climatic events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Tax Credits for Clean Electricity: The Distributional Impacts of Supply-Push Policies in the Power Sector

We evaluate distributional and efficiency consequences of the bulk power clean electricity tax credits authorized by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. To do so, we link detailed electricity capacity expansion, computable general equilibrium, microsimulation, and air pollution models to estimate economic welfare and health incidence across demographic groups. We evaluate trade-offs between policy efficiency and income progressivity by comparing the tax credits to cap-and-trade policies. The tax credits encourage increased clean electricity investment, resulting in a reallocation of capital from elsewhere in the economy, higher prices for capital and other goods, lower power prices, and lower emissions. The tax credits yield progressive outcomes for economic welfare at the expense of efficiency while all modeled policies demonstrate progressivity in health impacts. The health benefits, absent climate benefits, exceed total policy costs and provide greater benefits for low-income and historically marginalized households given coincidence of household locations and emissions exposure intensity.

distributional impacts↗

Tax Credits for Clean Electricity: The Distributional Impacts of Supply-Push Policies in the Power Sector

We evaluate distributional and efficiency consequences of the bulk power clean electricity tax credits authorized by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. To do so, we link detailed electricity capacity expansion, computable general equilibrium, data-rich microsimulation, and air pollution models to estimate the policy incidence in terms of economic welfare and health impacts across a wide range of demographic groups. We evaluate the tradeoff between policy efficiency and income progressivity by comparing the tax credits to cap-and-trade policies that vary revenue recycling approaches. Under the scenarios analyzed the bulk power tax credits lead to increased clean electricity technology deployment resulting in a reallocation of capital from elsewhere in the economy, higher prices for capital and other goods, lower power prices, and lower emissions. The tax credits yield progressive outcomes for both economic welfare and health impacts. The health benefits exceed total policy costs and provide greater benefits for low-income and historically-marginalized households given the coincidence of household and emission source locations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗