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At least 55 records · Page 3

An agent-based modeling tool supporting bioenergy and bio-product community communication regarding cellulosic bioeconomy development

The emergence of the cellulosic bioeconomy requires not only adequate technological, economic, and policy advances, but also effective communication and coordination among the multiple stakeholders in the bioeconomy community. Aiming to facilitate stakeholder communication and collaboration for cellulosic bioeconomy growth, an agent-based model is developed as a community communication tool in this study. The tool simulates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, as well as the responses and interactions between the stakeholders and biophysical, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. The agent behavior rules are developed and validated based on behavior and economic theories and information attained from a stakeholder focus group study and a land use survey. A pilot study in a Central Illinois watershed shows stakeholder synergies, i.e., positive feedback loops across multiple stakeholders. The modeling tool's role in facilitating community communication is demonstrated via the focus group study. A comparison of policy scenarios suggests that the cellulosic bioeconomy development is fastest under a portfolio of policies combining the views of the multiple stakeholders. Critically, subsidy for small-scale bio-facilities is essential as it rapidly initializes an early market for cellulosic feedstocks and the adoption of Miscanthus. As a result, the communication tool is applied to bringing stakeholders and researchers together to develop shared visions, assess barriers, and explore solution portfolios to initialize and speed up the regional cellulosic bioeconomy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Scale interactions and anisotropy in Rayleigh–Taylor turbulence

We study energy scale transfer in Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) flows by coarse graining in physical space without Fourier transforms, allowing scale analysis along the vertical direction. Two processes are responsible for kinetic energy flux across scales: baropycnal work Λ, due to large-scale pressure gradients acting on small scales of density and velocity; and deformation work Π, due to multiscale velocity. Our coarse-graining analysis shows how these fluxes exhibit self-similar evolution that is quadratic-in-time, similar to the RT mixing layer. We find that Λ is a conduit for potential energy, transferring energy non-locally from the largest scales to smaller scales in the inertial range where Π takes over. In three dimensions, Π continues a persistent cascade to smaller scales, whereas in two dimensions Π rechannels the energy back to larger scales despite the lack of vorticity conservation in two-dimensional (2-D) variable density flows. This gives rise to a positive feedback loop in 2-D RT (absent in three dimensions) in which mixing layer growth and the associated potential energy release are enhanced relative to 3-D RT, explaining the oft-observed larger α values in 2-D simulations. Despite higher bulk kinetic energy levels in two dimensions, small inertial scales are weaker than in three dimensions. Moreover, the net upscale cascade in two dimensions tends to isotropize the large-scale flow, in stark contrast to three dimensions. Furthermore, our findings indicate the absence of net upscale energy transfer in three-dimensional RT as is often claimed; growth of large-scale bubbles and spikes is not due to ‘mergers’ but solely due to baropycnal work Λ.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Freshwater Flux Variability Lengthens the Period of the Low-Frequency AMOC Variability

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits interdecadal to multidecadal variability, yet the extent to which the surface freshwater flux (FWF) variability affects the AMOC variability remains unclear. This study isolates the contribution of FWF variability in modulating AMOC through a partially coupled experiment, in which the FWF effect from the atmosphere and sea ice are disabled. It is demonstrated that the FWF effect can remarkably enhance the persistence of positive salinity anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and sustain the dense water formation that was initiated by the cold temperature anomalies. Therefore, the FWF variability serves as a positive feedback on AMOC and lengthens the period of the AMOC oscillation. Further lead-lag regressions of atmospheric and oceanic variables onto the AMOC time series illuminate that the persistent salinity anomalies are generated through two pathways: i) the phase lag between temperature and salinity anomalies in the Labrador Sea; and ii) a downstream propagation of extra high-salinity anomaly along the East Greenland Current, due to the reduced sea ice melting flux associated with an atmosphere forcing over the southern Greenland tip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Intercomparison of Large‐Eddy Simulations of a Convection Cloud Chamber Using Haze‐Capable Bin and Lagrangian Cloud Microphysics Schemes

Abstract Recent in situ observations show that haze particles exist in a convection cloud chamber. The microphysics schemes previously used for large‐eddy simulations of the cloud chamber could not fully resolve haze particles and the associated processes, including their activation and deactivation. Specifically, cloud droplet activation was modeled based on Twomey‐type parameterizations, wherein cloud droplets were formed when a critical supersaturation for the available cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) was exceeded and haze particles were not explicitly resolved. Here, we develop and adapt haze‐capable bin and Lagrangian microphysics schemes to properly resolve the activation and deactivation processes. Results are compared with the Twomey‐type CCN‐based bin microphysics scheme in which haze particles are not fully resolved. We find that results from the haze‐capable bin microphysics scheme agree well with those from the Lagrangian microphysics scheme. However, both schemes significantly differ from those from a CCN‐based bin microphysics scheme unless CCN recycling is considered. Haze particles from the recycling of deactivated cloud droplets can strongly enhance cloud droplet number concentration due to a positive feedback in haze‐cloud interactions in the cloud chamber. Haze particle size distributions are more realistic when considering solute and curvature effects that enable representing the complete physics of the activation process. Our study suggests that haze particles and their interactions with cloud droplets may have a strong impact on cloud properties when supersaturation fluctuations are comparable to mean supersaturation, as is the case in the cloud chamber and likely is the case in the atmosphere, especially in polluted conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Effect of Indian Ocean Temperature on the Pacific Trade Winds and ENSO

Abstract A notable shift in the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been observed in the early 21st century, characterized by an increased prevalence of Central Pacific (CP) events and strengthened Pacific trade winds. This shift may be attributed to the warming tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). To investigate this, we conduct perturbation experiments using the Insitut Pierre Simon Laplace climate model and nudge TIO surface temperatures to induce warming or cooling effects. Our findings reveal that TIO warming (or cooling) leads to amplified (weakened) mean trade winds and surface warming (cooling) in the Pacific region. Surprisingly, ENSO variability increases in both TIO cooling and warming scenarios. This result is linked to stronger positive feedbacks and a less stable Bjerknes index for either TIO forcing. Additionally, we find that TIO warming leads to more frequent CP events, meridional widening of wind anomalies, and broadening of the ENSO power spectrum toward lower frequencies.

Geology↗

The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones

In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global climate. However, the effect of a changing climate on Arctic cyclone behavior remains poorly understood. This study uses high resolution (4 km), regional modeling techniques and downscaled global climate reconstructions and projections to examine how recent and future climatic changes alter cyclone behavior. Results suggest that recent climate change has not yet had an appreciable effect on Arctic cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and increasing surface temperatures drive large increases in the near-surface temperature gradient, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and convection during cyclones. The future climate can alter cyclone trajectories and increase and prolong intensity with greatly augmented wind speeds, temperatures, and precipitation. Such changes in cyclone characteristics could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks. The increasing extreme nature of these weather events has implications for local ecosystems, communities, and socio-economic activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduced CO 2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation

Current Earth system models (ESMs) project dramatic slowing (28–42% by 2100) of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC) across a range of climate scenarios, with a complete shutdown of SMOC possible by year 2300. Slowing meridional overturning circulation (MOC) differentially impacts the ocean biological and solubility carbon pumps, leaving the net impact on ocean carbon uptake uncertain. Here using a suite of ESMs, we show that slowing MOC reduces anthropogenic carbon uptake by the solubility pump but increases deep-ocean storage of carbon and nutrients by the biological pump. The net effect reduces ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 . The deep-ocean nutrient sequestration will increasingly depress global-scale, marine net primary production over time. As a result, MOC slowdown represents a positive feedback that could extend or intensify peak-warmth climate conditions on multi-century timescales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Emergent constraints on future methane emissions from global wetlands

Future methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural wetlands are predicted to increase due to global warming, leading to positive feedback on climate change. However, the magnitude of this increase remains highly uncertain. Here we present novel ensemble simulations of seven state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to estimate wetland CH 4 emissions (eCH 4 ) during the twenty-first century. Our estimates suggest that for every 1 °C increase in global land surface temperature, there is a 24 ± 10 Tg CH 4 yr −1 increase in eCH 4 . We also identify an emergent relationship between contemporary temperature dependence and projected eCH 4 . When constrained by 163 site-year eddy-covariance measurements of eCH 4 , we show that wetland emissions can increase by 50–60% by the 2090s relative to the 2010s under a high-warming scenario. The projected decadal increase in eCH 4 from the 2010–2019 baseline to the 2030s would very likely (90% probability) offset an amount equivalent in scale to 8–10% of anthropogenic eCH 4 at the 2020 level, comparable to the reductions committed under the Global Methane Pledge. However, the constraint is dominated by mid- and high-latitude observations, with limited tropical coverage, and uncertainties in projected wetland inundation contribute substantially to uncertainty in eCH 4 . Our findings reduce the uncertainty in projected wetland methane–climate feedback and highlight its potential impacts on methane mitigation efforts to slow global warming.

Zhang, Zhen [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Be↗

Intrinsic optical bistability of photon avalanching nanocrystals

Optically bistable materials respond to a single input with two possible optical outputs, contingent on excitation history. Such materials would be ideal for optical switching and memory, but the limited understanding of intrinsic optical bistability (IOB) prevents the development of nanoscale IOB materials suitable for devices. Here we demonstrate IOB in Nd 3+ -doped KPb 2 Cl 5 avalanching nanoparticles, which switch with high contrast between luminescent and non-luminescent states, with hysteresis characteristic of bistability. Here we elucidate a non-thermal mechanism in which IOB originates from suppressed non-radiative relaxation in Nd 3+ ions and from the positive feedback of photon avalanching, resulting in extreme, >200th-order optical nonlinearities. The modulation of laser pulsing tunes the hysteresis widths, and dual-laser excitation enables transistor-like optical switching. This control over nanoscale IOB establishes avalanching nanoparticles for photonic devices in which light is used to manipulate light.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

El Niño events exhibit rich diversity in their spatial patterns, which can lead to distinct global impacts. Therefore, how El Niño pattern diversity will change in a warmer climate is one of the most critical issues for future climate projections. Based on the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, we report an inter-model consensus on future El Niño diversity changes. Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are projected to occur more frequently compared to eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Concurrently, EP El Niño events are projected to increase in amplitude, leading to higher chances of extreme EP El Niño occurrences. We suggest that enhanced upper-ocean stability due to greenhouse warming can lead to a stronger surface-layer response for increasing positive feedbacks, more favorable excitation of CP El Niño. Whereas, enhanced nonlinear atmospheric responses to EP sea surface temperatures can lead to a higher probability of extreme EP El Niño.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nitrogen fixing shrubs advance the pace of tall-shrub expansion in low-Arctic tundra

Abstract Tall deciduous shrubs are critically important to carbon and nutrient cycling in high-latitude ecosystems. As Arctic regions warm, shrubs expand heterogeneously across their ranges, including within unburned terrain experiencing isometric gradients of warming. To constrain the effects of widespread shrub expansion in terrestrial and Earth System Models, improved knowledge of local-to-regional scale patterns, rates, and controls on decadal shrub expansion is required. Using fine-scale remote sensing, we modeled the drivers of patch-scale tall-shrub expansion over 68 years across the central Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Models show the heterogeneous patterns of tall-shrub expansion are not only predictable but have an upper limit defined by permafrost, climate, and edaphic gradients, two-thirds of which have yet to be colonized. These observations suggest that increased nitrogen inputs from nitrogen-fixing alders contributed to a positive feedback that advanced overall tall-shrub expansion. These findings will be useful for constraining and projecting vegetation-climate feedbacks in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impact of stacking and phonon environment on energy transfer in organic chromophores: computational insights

Energy transfer in organic materials is extensively studied due to many applications in optoelectronics. The electronic and vibrational relaxations within molecular assemblies can be influenced by stacking arrangements or additions of a backbone that unites them. Here, we present the computational study of the photoexcitation dynamics of a perylene diimide monomer, and face-to-face stacked dimer and trimer. By using non-Energy transfer in organic materials is extensively studied due to many applications in optoelectronics. The electronic and vibrational relaxations within molecular assemblies can be influenced by stacking arrangements or additions of a backbone that unites them. In this work, we present the computational study of the photoexcitation dynamics of a perylene diimide monomer, and face-to-face stacked dimer and trimer. By using non-adiabatic excited-state molecular dynamics simulations, we show that the non-radiative relaxation is accelerated with the number of stacked molecules. This effect is explained by differences in the energy splitting between states that impacts their corresponding nonadiabatic couplings. Additionally, our analysis of the vibronic dynamics reveals that the passage through the different conical intersections that participate in the relaxation of the stacked systems, activate a positive feedback mechanism. This effect involves a narrow set of vibrational normal modes that accelerate the process by increasing the efficiency of its vibronic dynamics. In contrast, an addition of a biologically inspired backbone slows down the relaxation rate due to its participation in the vibronic dynamics of the molecular stacking arrangements. Our results suggest the stacking arrangements and common backbones as strategies to modulate the efficiency of electronic and vibrational relaxation of diimide-based systems and other molecular aggregates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Control of internal transport barriers in magnetically confined tokamak burning plasmas

The initiation, termination, and control of internal transport barriers associated with E × B flow shear near local minima of magnetic shear are examined for burning plasmas to determine if the positive feedback loops between profiles, instability, transport, and flow shear operate in regimes with fusion self-heating. A five-field transport model for the evolution of profiles of density, ion and electron temperature, ion and electron fluctuations, and radial electric field is utilized to examine the efficacy of controls associated with external inputs of heat and particles, including neutral beam injection, RF, pellets, and gas puffing. The response of the plasma to these inputs is studied in the presence of self-heating. The latter is affected by the external inputs and their modification of profiles and is, therefore, not an external control. Provided sufficient external power is applied, internal transport barriers can be created and controlled, both in ion and electron channels. Barrier control is sensitive to the locations of power deposition and pellet ablation, as well as temporal sequencing of external inputs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Time dependent model for non-inductive ECH X-I current ramp-up for SHPD tokamak facility

Non-inductive (NI) plasma current start-up and ramp-up is an important research topic for spherical tokamak (ST) based reactors and fusion pilot plant (FPP). For a compact FPP, the OH flux availability is highly restricted due to its compact geometry. Efficient fundamental extraordinary mode (X-I) electron cyclotron heating (ECH) current start-up and ramp-up regime was identified for a reactor-like high toroidal magnetic field range which has more than a hundred times higher current drive efficiency compared to more conventional ECH methods for the relevant start-up temperature range. High current drive efficiency is possible due to the strong X-I fundamental ECH interaction only with unidirectional passing electrons constrained by the wave accessibility conditions. Here, we extend the X-I electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) investigation to a time dependent model to simulate the non-inductive current ramp-up to 10 MA for the Sustained High-Power Density (SHPD) facility. As the X-I ECCD driven current I EC rises, due to the back EMF driven negative current, the net plasma current Ip rises more slowly with the current resistive time scale. For tokamak confinement time (both L-mode and H-Mode) which tends to rise with I p , a positive feedback results and even with constant applied ECH power, T e0 , I EC , and I p can continue to rise to very high values. However, in a realistic situation, the T e0 rise should saturate due to a number of factors such as enhanced core radiation and increased power loss at high temperature. To simulate this effect, we adopt a maximum T e0 model which would limit the temperature rise to certain T e0 . With this model, we investigated the current ramp-up for various ECH power levels and the maximum T e0 of 15, 20, and 25 keV. We find that while the power required is reduced with increasing T e0 limit due to increased current drive efficiency, the time to reach 10 MA tends to go up due to the reduced plasma resistivity for the higher T e0 limit. We also find for a given Te0 limit, the time to reach 10 MA tends to be reduced by increasing the applied ECH power by over driving the current ramp-up where I EC is driven at significantly higher level than 10 MA. While the current ramp-up time may not be an issue for the steady-state reactor systems, if it is desirable to minimize the current ramp-up time, it is prudent to have a sufficient ECH power for current over-drive and have some T e0 limiting tools such as impurity seeding for enhanced radiation. In conclusion, a well-controlled NI ECH start-up also has a potential of improving the tokamak start-up reliability and avoid run-away electrons while the NI off-axis current drive could enhance MHD stability and plasma performance improvements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw

We used a model for permafrost hydrology informed by detailed measurements of soil ice content to better understand the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. Our spatially resolved simulations of a well-characterized site in polygonal tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, agree well with multiple types of observations in the current climate. Projections indicate 63 cm of bulk subsidence from 2006 to 2100 in the strong-warming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate. Permafrost thaw as measured by the increase in active layer thickness (ALT)—the thickness of the soil layer that thaws each summer—is accelerated by subsidence, but the effect is relatively small. The ALT increases from the current-day value of approximately 50 cm to approximately 180 cm by 2100 when subsidence is included compared to about 160 cm when it is neglected. In these simulations, previously identified positive feedbacks between subsidence and thaw are self-limiting on decadal time frames because landscape runoff and increasing evapotranspiration result in drier tundra with weaker surface/atmosphere coupling. These results for a tundra site that is representative of large swathes of the Alaska North Slope suggest that subsidence is unlikely to lead to abrupt thaw over large areas. However, subsidence does have significant effects on the hydrology of polygonal tundra. Specifically, subsidence increases landscape runoff, which helps maintain streamflow in the face of increased evapotranspiration but also causes drier tundra conditions that could have deleterious effects on sensitive Arctic wetland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gyrokinetic simulations of core turbulence and thermal transport in the high-β P discharge on EAST

The properties of core turbulence and thermal transport are investigated for EAST high-β P (β P ~ 3.1) plasmas with dominant electron heating (Te/Ti > 1) via gyrokinetic simulation with the NLT code. Linear simulations identify that the electrostatic η e -driven trapped electron mode (η e -TEM) dominates in the core region (ρ< 0.7) and the ion temperature gradient (ITG) mode dominates in the out region (ρ≥ 0.7), consistent with the linear threshold analysis of micro-instabilities. Sensitivity analysis shows that the normalized electron density gradient (R/L ne ) and ITG (R/L Ti ) are two effective parameters to stabilize TEM instability. Nonlinear simulations are also carried out and compared with the experimental results, which show that the electron thermal internal transport barrier (ITB) in EAST high-β P plasma is determined by the TEM-induced turbulence. A higher zonal flow shearing rate is observed in the ITB region (0.2 < ρ < 0.34), which can regulate energy transport induced by TEM turbulence and facilitate the formation of e-ITB. A plausible positive feedback mechanism to mitigate turbulence transport and improve energy confinement via enhanced ion heating is proposed for future experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Nonlinear burn control in ITER using adaptive allocation of actuators with uncertain dynamics

Abstract ITER will be the first tokamak to sustain a fusion-producing, or burning, plasma. If the plasma temperature were to inadvertently rise in this burning regime, the positive correlation between temperature and the fusion reaction rate would establish a destabilizing positive feedback loop. Careful regulation of the plasma’s temperature and density, or burn control, is required to prevent these potentially reactor-damaging thermal excursions, neutralize disturbances and improve performance. In this work, a Lyapunov-based burn controller is designed using a full zero-dimensional nonlinear model. An adaptive estimator manages destabilizing uncertainties in the plasma confinement properties and the particle recycling conditions (caused by plasma–wall interactions). The controller regulates the plasma density with requests for deuterium and tritium particle injections. In ITER-like plasmas, the fusion-born alpha particles will primarily heat the plasma electrons, resulting in different electron and ion temperatures in the core. By considering separate response models for the electron and ion energies, the proposed controller can independently regulate the electron and ion temperatures by requesting that different amounts of auxiliary power be delivered to the electrons and ions. These two commands for a specific control effort (electron and ion heating) are sent to an actuator allocation module that optimally maps them to the heating actuators available to ITER: an electron cyclotron heating system (20 MW), an ion cyclotron heating system (20 MW), and two neutral beam injectors (16.5 MW each). Two different actuator allocators are presented in this work. The first actuator allocator finds the optimal mapping by solving a convex quadratic program that includes actuator saturation and rate limits. It is nonadaptive and assumes that the mapping between the commanded control efforts and the allocated actuators (i.e. the effector model) contains no uncertainties. The second actuator allocation module has an adaptive estimator to handle uncertainties in the effector model. This uncertainty includes actuator efficiencies, the fractions of neutral beam heating that are deposited into the plasma electrons and ions, and the tritium concentration of the fueling pellets. Furthermore, the adaptive allocator considers actuator dynamics (actuation lag) that contain uncertainty. This adaptive allocation algorithm is more computationally efficient than the aforementioned nonadaptive allocator because it is computed using dynamic update laws so that finding the solution to a static optimization problem is not required at every time step. A simulation study assesses the performance of the proposed adaptive burn controller augmented with each of the actuator allocation modules.

Physics↗

Effect of coherent edge-localized mode on transition to high-performance hybrid scenarios in KSTAR

This paper deals with one of the origins and trigger mechanisms responsible for the observed performance enhancements in the hybrid scenario experiments conducted in Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR). The major contribution to the performance improvement comes from a broader and higher pedestal formation. The increase of fast ion pressure due to a plasma density decrease also contributes substantially to the global beta. Although the reduced core plasma volume resulting from the pedestal expansion has a negative effect on the core thermal energy, a considerable confinement improvement observed in the inner core region limits the degradation. The one significant characteristic of high-performance discharges is the presence of Coherent Edge-localized Mode (CEM) activity. CEM is triggered during the pedestal recovery phase between typical ELM crashes and has been found to be related to the increase of particle and heat transport. It appears to underlie two commonly observed phenomena in high-performance hybrid scenario discharges in KSTAR; pedestal broadening and continuous density decrease. Despite the associated transport increase, CEM activities can induce performance enhancement. With the pedestal broadening, ELM crashes become delayed and weakened, which, in turn, allows for a higher pedestal. Moreover, the density decrease directly increases fast ion pressure by extending the beam-slowing-down time. The linear gyrokinetic analysis reveals that the increase of fast ions could initiate positive feedback loops, leading to the stabilization of Ion Temperature Gradient mode in the inner core region.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗