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NASA NTRS2018

Supply Chain Research and Analysis for Space Systems

The implementation of NASA GSFC's portfolio of mission projects relies upon inter-connected, multi-tiered supply chains of organizations operating under direct and indirect contracts and other agreements throughout the U.S. and around the world. These supply chains are subject to an inter-related array of technical/production, business, market and security risks that are amplified by the ongoing globalization of industry and technology and which can disrupt or threaten the production and delivery of products and services when needed and in conformance with requirements. In recognition of such risks and associated challenges, GSFC's SMA directorate launched an innovative Supply Chain Research and Analysis capability three years ago to gain greater insight into the operating environment, performance, capabilities and viability of current and prospective suppliers for GSFC projects and proposals. The capability uses business intelligence techniques and primarily open source information resources as part of a cost-effective, non-intrusive methodology to produce several types of research and analysis reports. The reports are based on a holistic analytical framework encompassing key technical/production, business enterprise management, market and security factors, and feature in-depth information, summary information profiles, SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis, and candidate risk concerns in order to pro-actively support SMA and project management needs. The SRA capability, which is designed to complement and support ongoing SMA/project management activities and practices, has produced over 105 reports since its start-up in early 2015.This presentation addresses the approach, methodology and performance of the Supply Chain Research and Analysiscapability and its value in assuring the success of NASA mission projects. In doing so, the presentation provides lessons-learned, best practices, case examples and address how it fits into the development of an enterprise-level Supply Chain Risk Management capability.

supply chain risk management↗
NASA NTRS2013

Identification of Crew-Systems Interactions and Decision Related Trends

NASA Vehicle System Safety Technology (VSST) project management uses systems analysis to identify key issues and maintain a portfolio of research leading to potential solutions to its three identified technical challenges. Statistical data and published safety priority lists from academic, industry and other government agencies were reviewed and analyzed by NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) systems analysis personnel to identify issues and future research needs related to one of VSST's technical challenges, Crew Decision Making (CDM). The data examined in the study were obtained from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Aviation Accident and Incident Data System, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Accident/Incident Data System and the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). In addition, this report contains the results of a review of safety priority lists, information databases and other documented references pertaining to aviation crew systems issues and future research needs. The specific sources examined were: Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementation (SERFIs), Flight Deck Automation Issues (FDAI) and NTSB Most Wanted List and Open Recommendations. Various automation issues taxonomies and priority lists pertaining to human factors, automation and flight design were combined to create a list of automation issues related to CDM.

Jones, Sharon Monica↗
NASA NTRS2005

XML technology planning database : lessons learned

A hierarchical Extensible Markup Language(XML) database called XCALIBR (XML Analysis LIBRary) has been developed by Millennium Program to assist in technology investment (ROI) analysis and technology Language Capability the New return on portfolio optimization. The database contains mission requirements and technology capabilities, which are related by use of an XML dictionary. The XML dictionary codifies a standardized taxonomy for space missions, systems, subsystems and technologies. In addition to being used for ROI analysis, the database is being examined for use in project planning, tracking and documentation. During the past year, the database has moved from development into alpha testing. This paper describes the lessons learned during construction and testing of the prototype database and the motivation for moving from an XML taxonomy to a standard XML-based ontology.

prototype databases↗
NASA NTRS2015

Risk-Based Causal Modeling of Airborne Loss of Separation

Maintaining safe separation between aircraft remains one of the key aviation challenges as the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges. The goals of the NextGen are to increase capacity and reduce flight delays to meet the aviation demand growth through the 2025 time frame while maintaining safety and efficiency. The envisioned NextGen is expected to enable high air traffic density, diverse fleet operations in the airspace, and a decrease in separation distance. All of these factors contribute to the potential for Loss of Separation (LOS) between aircraft. LOS is a precursor to a potential mid-air collision (MAC). The NASA Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing aircraft separation assurance concepts and technologies to mitigate LOS instances, therefore, preventing MAC. This paper focuses on the analysis of causal and contributing factors of LOS accidents and incidents leading to MAC occurrences. Mid-air collisions among large commercial aircraft are rare in the past decade, therefore, the LOS instances in this study are for general aviation using visual flight rules in the years 2000-2010. The study includes the investigation of causal paths leading to LOS, and the development of the Airborne Loss of Separation Analysis Model (ALOSAM) using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to capture the multi-dependent relations of causal factors. The ALOSAM is currently a qualitative model, although further development could lead to a quantitative model. ALOSAM could then be used to perform impact analysis of concepts and technologies in the AOSP portfolio on the reduction of LOS risk.

Geuther, Steven C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Applying Technology Ranking and Systems Engineering in Advanced Life Support

According to the Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program Plan, the Systems Modeling and Analysis Project (SMAP) has two important tasks: 1) prioritizing investments in ALS Research and Technology Development (R&TD), and 2) guiding the evolution of ALS systems. Investments could be prioritized simply by independently ranking different technologies, but we should also consider a technology's impact on system design. Guiding future ALS systems will require SMAP to consider many aspects of systems engineering. R&TD investments can be prioritized using familiar methods for ranking technology. The first step is gathering data on technology performance, safety, readiness level, and cost. Then the technologies are ranked using metrics or by decision analysis using net present economic value. The R&TD portfolio can be optimized to provide the maximum expected payoff in the face of uncertain future events. But more is needed. The optimum ALS system can not be designed simply by selecting the best technology for each predefined subsystem. Incorporating a new technology, such as food plants, can change the specifications of other subsystems, such as air regeneration. Systems must be designed top-down starting from system objectives, not bottom-up from selected technologies. The familiar top-down systems engineering process includes defining mission objectives, mission design, system specification, technology analysis, preliminary design, and detail design. Technology selection is only one part of systems analysis and engineering, and it is strongly related to the subsystem definitions. ALS systems should be designed using top-down systems engineering. R&TD technology selection should consider how the technology affects ALS system design. Technology ranking is useful but it is only a small part of systems engineering.

Jones, Harry↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Ancel, Ersin↗
NASA NTRS2006

Aerobots as a Ubiquitous Part of Society

Small autonomous aerial robots (aerobots) have the potential to make significant positive contributions to modern society. Aerobots of various vehicle-types - CTOL, STOL, VTOL, and even possibly LTA - will be a part of a new paradigm for the distribution of goods and services. Aerobots as a class of vehicles may test the boundaries of aircraft design. New system analysis and design tools will be required in order to account for the new technologies and design parameters/constraints for such vehicles. The analysis tools also provide new approaches to defining/assessing technology goals and objectives and the technology portfolio necessary to accomplish those goals and objectives. Using the aerobot concept as an illustrative test case, key attributes of these analysis tools are discussed.

Young, Larry A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Two-Step Resonance-Enhanced Desorption Laser Mass Spectrometry for In Situ Analysis of Organic-Rich Environments

A wide diversity of planetary surfaces in the solar system represent high priority targets for in situ compositional and contextual analysis as part of future missions. The planned mission portfolio will inform our knowledge of the chemistry at play on Mars, icy moons, comets, and primitive asteroids, which can lead to advances in our understanding of the interplay between inorganic and organic building blocks that led to the evolution of habitable environments on Earth and beyond. In many of these environments, the presence of water or aqueously altered mineralogy is an important indicator of habitable environments that are present or may have been present in the past. As a result, the search for complex organic chemistry that may imply the presence of a feedstock, if not an inventory of biosignatures, is naturally aligned with targeted analyses of water-rich surface materials. Here we describe the two-step laser mass spectrometry (L2MS) analytical technique that has seen broad application in the study of organics in meteoritic samples, now demonstrated to be compatible with an in situ investigation with technique improvements to target high priority planetary environments as part of a future scientific payload. An ultraviolet (UV) pulsed laser is used in previous and current embodiments of laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (LDMS) to produce ionized species traceable to the mineral and organic composition of a planetary surface sample. L2MS, an advanced technique in laser mass spectrometry, is selective to the aromatic organic fraction of a complex sample, which can provide additional sensitivity and confidence in the detection of specific compound structures. Use of a compact two-step laser mass spectrometer prototype has been previously reported to provide specificity to key aromatic species, such as PAHs, nucleobases, and certain amino acids. Recent improvements in this technique have focused on the interaction between the mineral matrix and the organic analyte. The majority of planetary targets of astrobiological interest are characterized by the presence of water or hydrated mineral phases. Water signatures can indicate a history of available liquid water that may have played an important role in the chemical environment of these planetary surfaces and subsurfaces. The studies we report here investigate the influence of water content on the detectability of organics by L2MS in planetary analog samples.

primitive asteroids↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling Project on Planetary Mission Design

Planetary missions continue to grow larger and more complex. Furthermore, the current focus on human exploration of the Moon and Mars, as well as Mars Sample Return(MSR), place increas-ingly stringent requirements on the reliability of the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) system that ensures the safe delivery of payload or crew to their destination. Planetary EDL is an area in which mission designers are critically reliant on modeling and simulation to demonstrate the reliability of the system, as there are no ground facilities that are able to fully test these systems in a flight-relevant environment. NASA’s state-of-the-art modeling and simulation capability must continually evolve to meet the needs of the next generation of planetary EDL. To accomplish this aim, NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project was formed in 2013and is funded bythe Space Technology Mission Directorate(STMD) and Science Mission Directorate (SMD). ESM is the Agency’s only cross-cutting effort for advancing entry systems modeling and simulation capabilities across a range of technical disciplines and Solar System destinations. ESM is a portfolio project covering a variety of mid-TRL research efforts within four core EDL-related areas of investment: (1) Thermal protection material modeling, (2) Shock layer kinetics and radiation, (3) Aerosciences, and (4) Guidance, navigation, and con-trol. The material modeling group creates detailed material response modelsof thermal protection systems (TPS)from the micro to macro scale, and at the fun-damental and engineering levels. Shock layer kinetics and radiation focuses on radiative heating of space-craft, quantum chemistry and benchmark experiments for validation.Aerosciences is a broad research area that impacts many aspects of entry systems, including parachutes, aerodynamics, and turbulent heating augmentation due to TPS roughness.The guidance, navigation,and control effort under ESM is expanding the capabilities of NASA’s main flight mechanics tool, POST2, for use on high-performance computing architectures and to generalize interoperability with external applications for more detailed end-to-end simula-tion.In addition, several focusedresearch topics have been approvedto augment ESM’s core portfolio. These include efforts for deep post-flight analysis of Mars 2020/MEDLI2 flight data; development ofTPS failure models; improvement of hypersonic wakeflow models; and a recently concluded effort to provide material response models for NuSil-coated PICA heat-shield material. This presentation will discuss each of these investment areas and demonstrate via real mission examples how advances to the state-of-the-art enabled by ESM are directly impacting the missions of today and tomorrow, including InSight, Mars 2020, Mars Sample Return, Orion, and Dragonfly.

Entry Systems Modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Framework for NASA Space Relay Satellite Services over the Next Decade: Development and Demonstration of the Commercial Successors to TDRS

• NASA SCaN Program plans to pursue commercial services for communications with Spacecrafts in near-earth Orbit • The Communications Services Project (CSP) formulated at GRC to establish partnerships with commercial SATCOM companies to develop and demonstrate the feasibility of providing SATCOM capabilities that could be offered as a service for future spacecraft users • CSP pursued an Announcement of Proposals (AFP) in 2021 • Awarded 6 industry vendors out of 14 (~ $278 million) • Viasat, SES Government Solutions, SpaceX; Kuiper Government Solutions (KGS), Telesat U.S. Services, Inmarsat Government. (4 RF and 2 Optical) • AFP’s objectives to develop and demonstrate end-to-end operational capabilities that could meet the needs of Government and private sector customers and maximize interoperability between them. • NASA completed assessment and analysis of the 6 industry proposals. • Results identified optimal portfolio that best meet AFP’s Objectives when considering capability coverage, risk spread, levels of confidence, U.S. domestic market stimulation, price and NASA budget.

George Haddad↗
NASA NTRS2018

Performing a Comprehensive Unmanned Aircraft System Full Integration Analysis for NASA ARMD

For many years, the concept of routinely flying unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) within the national airspace system (NAS) has been a long-term goal with numerous known and unknown technology and policy obstacles. Just within the last few years, the efforts and advancements from government, industry, and academia-sponsored research and development have greatly shortened the distance to the goal. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) has recognized that it is uniquely positioned to play a lead role in addressing the remaining UAS airspace integration (AI) challenges. To fully understand the magnitude and scope of these challenges, NASA ARMD initiated a study in 2015 to identify what would be needed to enable full integration of UAS for civil/commercial operations within the NAS by 2025. The desired outcome was a comprehensive analysis framework that ARMD could use to develop a research portfolio focused on retiring the remaining gaps and challenges standing in the way of full UAS integration. This document is a comprehensive assessment of UAS integration research to date.

UAS in the NAS↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Summary and Analysis of NASA's Strategic Astrophysics Technology PCOS/COR Investments Since Program Inception

The NASA Strategic Astrophysics Technology (SAT) Program was established in 2009 as a new technology maturation program to fill the gap in the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) range from 3 to 6. Since the inception of the program, 47 tasks have been awarded under the auspices of the NASA Physics of the Cosmos (PCOS) Program in the areas of optics and detectors as well as lasers, electronics, and micro-thruster subsystems. In addition, 31 tasks have been awarded under the auspices of the NASA Cosmic Origins (COR) Program to develop optics, coatings, cooling subsystems, and detectors from the Far-IR to the Far-UV. We present the PCOS/COR portfolio distribution in terms of specific technology areas addressed and show an analysis of the rate and cost of TRL advancements. We present highlights of the infusion success stories that have emerged from the SAT maturation program as it relates to enabling future NASA astrophysics strategic missions. Finally, we present an outlook for future technology priorities for investment by the SAT Program.

COR↗
NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS)

Developing credible mass and cost estimates for space exploration and development architectures require multidisciplinary analysis based on physics calculations, and parametric estimates derived from historical systems. Within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), concurrent engineering environment (CEE) activities integrate discipline oriented analysis tools through a computer network and accumulate the results of a multidisciplinary analysis team via a centralized database or spreadsheet Each minute of a design and analysis study within a concurrent engineering environment is expensive due the size of the team and supporting equipment The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) reduces the cost of architecture analysis by capturing the knowledge of discipline experts into system oriented spreadsheet models. A framework with a user interface presents a library of system models to an architecture analyst. The analyst selects models of launchers, in-space transportation systems, and excursion vehicles, as well as space and surface infrastructure such as propellant depots, habitats, and solar power satellites. After assembling the architecture from the selected models, the analyst can create a campaign comprised of missions spanning several years. The ATLAS controller passes analyst specified parameters to the models and data among the models. An integrator workbook calls a history based parametric analysis cost model to determine the costs. Also, the integrator estimates the flight rates, launched masses, and architecture benefits over the years of the campaign. An accumulator workbook presents the analytical results in a series of bar graphs. In no way does ATLAS compete with a CEE; instead, ATLAS complements a CEE by ensuring that the time of the experts is well spent Using ATLAS, an architecture analyst can perform technology sensitivity analysis, study many scenarios, and see the impact of design decisions. When the analyst is satisfied with the system configurations, technology portfolios, and deployment strategies, he or she can present the concepts to a team, which will conduct a detailed, discipline-oriented analysis within a CEE. An analog to this approach is the music industry where a songwriter creates the lyrics and music before entering a recording studio.

O'Neil, Daniel A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Augmenting Space Technology Program Management with Secure Cloud & Mobile Services

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Game Changing Development (GCD) program manages technology projects across all NASA centers and reports to NASA headquarters regularly on progress. Program stakeholders expect an up-to-date, accurate status and often have questions about the program's portfolio that requires a timely response. Historically, reporting, data collection, and analysis were done with manual processes that were inefficient and prone to error. To address these issues, GCD set out to develop a new business automation solution. In doing this, the program wanted to leverage the latest information technology platforms and decided to utilize traditional systems along with new cloud-based web services and gaming technology for a novel and interactive user environment. The team also set out to develop a mobile solution for anytime information access. This paper discusses a solution to these challenging goals and how the GCD team succeeded in developing and deploying such a system. The architecture and approach taken has proven to be effective and robust and can serve as a model for others looking to develop secure interactive mobile business solutions for government or enterprise business automation.

Hodson, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Strategic Technology Investment Analysis: An Integrated System Approach

Complex technology investment decisions within NASA are increasingly difficult to make such that the end results are satisfying the technical objectives and all the organizational constraints. Due to a restricted science budget environment and numerous required technology developments, the investment decisions need to take into account not only the functional impact on the program goals, but also development uncertainties and cost variations along with maintaining a healthy workforce. This paper describes an approach for optimizing and qualifying technology investment portfolios from the perspective of an integrated system model. The methodology encompasses multi-attribute decision theory elements and sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of the degree of robustness of the recommended portfolio provides the decision-maker with an array of viable selection alternatives, which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy nontechnical constraints. The methodology is presented in the context of assessing capability development portfolios for NASA technology programs.

decision support↗
NASA NTRS2016

Application of Deterministic and Probabilistic System Design Methods and Enhancements of Conceptual Design Tools for ERA Project

This report documents work done by the Aerospace Systems Design Lab (ASDL) at the Georgia Institute of Technology, Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Integrated System Research Program, Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project. This report was prepared under contract NNL12AA12C, "Application of Deterministic and Probabilistic System Design Methods and Enhancement of Conceptual Design Tools for ERA Project". The research within this report addressed the Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project goal stated in the NRA solicitation "to advance vehicle concepts and technologies that can simultaneously reduce fuel burn, noise, and emissions." To identify technology and vehicle solutions that simultaneously meet these three metrics requires the use of system-level analysis with the appropriate level of fidelity to quantify feasibility, benefits and degradations, and associated risk. In order to perform the system level analysis, the Environmental Design Space (EDS) [Kirby 2008, Schutte 2012a] environment developed by ASDL was used to model both conventional and unconventional configurations as well as to assess technologies from the ERA and N+2 timeframe portfolios. A well-established system design approach was used to perform aircraft conceptual design studies, including technology trade studies to identify technology portfolios capable of accomplishing the ERA project goal and to obtain accurate tradeoffs between performance, noise, and emissions. The ERA goal, shown in Figure 1, is to simultaneously achieve the N+2 benefits of a cumulative noise margin of 42 EPNdB relative to stage 4, a 75 percent reduction in LTO NOx emissions relative to CAEP 6 and a 50 percent reduction in fuel burn relative to the 2005 best in class aircraft. There were 5 research task associated with this research: 1) identify technology collectors, 2) model technology collectors in EDS, 3) model and assess ERA technologies, 4) LTO and cruise emission prediction, and 5) probabilistic analysis of technology collectors and portfolios.

Mavris, Dimitri N.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Evaluation of radioisotope electric propulsion for selected interplanetary science missions

This study assessed the benefits and applicability of REP to missions relevant to the In-Space Propulsion Program (ISPP) using first and second generation RPS with specific powers of 4 We/kg and 8 We/kg, respectively. Three missions representing small body targets, medium outer planet class, and main belt asteroids and comets were evaluated. Those missions were a Trojan Asteroid Orbiter, Comet Surface Sample Return (CSSR), and Jupiter Polar Orbiter with Probes (JPOP). For each mission, REP cost and performance was compared with solar electric propulsion system (SEPS) and SOA chemical propulsion system (SCPS) cost and performance. The outcome of the analysis would be a determinant for potential inclusion in the ISPP investment portfolio.

trojan asteroid↗