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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the US

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

circular economy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the U.S. - 4P Model

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

carbon↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the U.S. - 4P Framework

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

circular economy↗
NASA NTRS2009

Spreadsheets for Analyzing and Optimizing Space Missions

XCALIBR (XML Capability Analysis LIBRary) is a set of Extensible Markup Language (XML) database and spreadsheet- based analysis software tools designed to assist in technology-return-on-investment analysis and optimization of technology portfolios pertaining to outer-space missions. XCALIBR is also being examined for use in planning, tracking, and documentation of projects. An XCALIBR database contains information on mission requirements and technological capabilities, which are related by use of an XML taxonomy. XCALIBR incorporates a standardized interface for exporting data and analysis templates to an Excel spreadsheet. Unique features of XCALIBR include the following: It is inherently hierarchical by virtue of its XML basis. The XML taxonomy codifies a comprehensive data structure and data dictionary that includes performance metrics for spacecraft, sensors, and spacecraft systems other than sensors. The taxonomy contains >700 nodes representing all levels, from system through subsystem to individual parts. All entries are searchable and machine readable. There is an intuitive Web-based user interface. The software automatically matches technologies to mission requirements. The software automatically generates, and makes the required entries in, an Excel return-on-investment analysis software tool. The results of an analysis are presented in both tabular and graphical displays.

Some, Raphael R.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Analysis of System-Wide Investment in the National Airspace System: A Portfolio Analytical Framework and an Example

In this paper, the authors review the FAA s current program investments and lay out a preliminary analytical framework to undertake projects that may address some of the noted deficiencies. By drawing upon the well developed theories from corporate finance, an analytical framework is offered that can be used for choosing FAA s investments taking into account risk, expected returns and inherent dependencies across NAS programs. The framework can be expanded into taking multiple assets and realistic values for parameters in drawing an efficient risk-return frontier for the entire FAA investment programs.

Bhadra, Dipasis↗
NASA NTRS2007

NASA Hypersonic Propulsion: Overview of Progress from 1995 to 2005

Hypersonic propulsion work supported by the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration had a primary focus on Space Transportation during the period from 1995 to 2005. The framework for these advances was established by policy and pursued with substantial funding. Many noteworthy advances were made, highlighted by the pinnacle flights of the X-43. This paper reviews and summarizes the programs and accomplishments of this era. The accomplishments are compared to the goals and objectives to lend an overarching perspective to what was achieved. At least dating back to the early days of the Space Shuttle program, NASA has had the objective of reducing the cost of access to space and concurrently improving safety and reliability. National Space Transportation Policy in 1994 coupled with a base of prior programs such as the National Aerospace Plane and the need to look beyond the Space Shuttle program set the stage for NASA to pursue Space Transportation Advances. Programs defined to pursue the advances represented a broad approach addressing classical rocket propulsion as well as airbreathing propulsion in various combinations and forms. The resulting portfolio of activities included systems analysis and design studies, discipline research and technology, component technology development, propulsion system ground test demonstration and flight demonstration. The types of propulsion systems that were pursued by these programs included classical rocket engines, "aerospike" rocket engines, high performance rocket engines, scram jets, rocket based combined cycles, and turbine based combined cycles. Vehicle architectures included single and two stage vehicles. Either single types of propulsion systems or combinations of the basic propulsion types were applied to both single and two stage vehicle design concepts. Some of the propulsion system design concepts were built and tested at full scale, large scale and small scale. Many flight demonstrators were conceptually defined, fewer designed and some built and one flown to demonstrate several technical advancements including propulsion. The X-43 flights were a culmination of these efforts for airbreathing propulsion. During the course of that period, there was a balance of funding and emphasis toward rocket propulsion but still very substantial airbreathing propulsion effort. The broad objectives of these programs were to both advance and test the state of the art so as to provide a basis for options to be pursued for broad space transportation needs, most importantly focused on crew carrying capability. NASA cooperated with the Department of Defense in planning and implementation of these programs to make efficient use of objectives and capabilities where appropriate. Much of the work was conducted in industry and academia as well as Government laboratories. Many test articles and data-bases now exist as a result of this work. At the conclusion of the period, the body of work made it clear that continued research and technology development was warranted, because although not ready for a NASA system development decision, results continued to support the promise of air-breathing propulsion for access to space.

Cikanek, Harry A., III↗
NASA NTRS2018

Supplier Research & Analysis Approach

"The implementation of NASA GSFC's portfolio of mission projects relies upon inter-connected, multi-tiered supply chains of organizations operating under direct and indirect contracts and other agreements throughout the U.S. and around the world. These supply chains are subject to an inter-related array of technical/production, business, market and security risks that are amplified by the ongoing globalization of industry and technology and which can disrupt or threaten the production and delivery of products and services when needed and in conformance with requirements. In recognition of such risks and associated challenges, GSFC's SMA directorate launched an innovative Supplier Research and Analysis (SRA) capability three years ago to gain greater insight into the operating environment, performance, capabilities and viability of current and prospective suppliers for GSFC projects and proposals. The capability uses business intelligence techniques and primarily open source information resources as part of a cost-effective, non-intrusive methodology to produce several types of research and analysis reports. The reports are based on a holistic analytical framework encompassing key technical/production, business enterprise management, market and security factors, and feature in-depth information, summary information profiles, SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis, and candidate risk concerns in order to pro-actively support SMA and project management needs. The SRA capability, which is designed to complement and support ongoing SMA/project management activities and practices, has produced over 95 reports since its start-up in early 2015. This presentation addresses the approach, methodology and performance of the Supplier Research and Analysis (SRA) capability and its value in assuring the success of NASA mission projects. In doing so, the presentation provides lessons-learned, best practices, case examples and address how it fits into the development of an enterprise-level Supply Chain Risk Management capability."

supplier research and analysis↗
NASA NTRS2014

Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model for Safety Technology Portfolio Assessment

NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) develops and advances methodologies and technologies to improve air transportation safety. The Safety Analysis and Integration Team (SAIT) conducts a safety technology portfolio assessment (PA) to analyze the program content, to examine the benefits and risks of products with respect to program goals, and to support programmatic decision making. The PA process includes systematic identification of current and future safety risks as well as tracking several quantitative and qualitative metrics to ensure the program goals are addressing prominent safety risks accurately and effectively. One of the metrics within the PA process involves using quantitative aviation safety models to gauge the impact of the safety products. This paper demonstrates the role of aviation safety modeling by providing model outputs and evaluating a sample of portfolio elements using the Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) model. The model enables not only ranking of the quantitative relative risk reduction impact of all portfolio elements, but also highlighting the areas with high potential impact via sensitivity and gap analyses in support of the program office. Although the model outputs are preliminary and products are notional, the process shown in this paper is essential to a comprehensive PA of NASA's safety products in the current program and future programs/projects.

Ancel, Ersin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Portfolio Standard Assessment for Alaska's Railbelt

This memorandum for the Governor of Alaska evaluates the technical feasibility of reaching 80% renewable electricity by 2040 in the Railbelt corridor of Alaska, which represents 75% of Alaska's electric load. This analysis was developed to inform renewable energy portfolio standard (RPS) legislation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Performing a Techno-Economic Analysis for Carbon Conversion Technologies (Final Report)

This document provides DOE-FECM specific guidance for conducting techno-economic analysis (TEA) on carbon conversion technologies using NETL's established TEA methodology. The intent is to provide guidance to develop a consistent methodology for evaluating carbon conversion technologies within the DOE-FECM portfolio. The document provides guidance on the analysis methodology, evaluation metrics including performance, cost, emissions, and market considerations, and ample references to guide the end user in the development of consistent TEA of carbon conversion technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2012

IV&V Project Assessment Process Validation

The Space Launch System (SLS) will launch NASA's Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). This launch vehicle will provide American launch capability for human exploration and travelling beyond Earth orbit. SLS is designed to be flexible for crew or cargo missions. The first test flight is scheduled for December 2017. The SLS SRR/SDR provided insight into the project development life cycle. NASA IV&V ran the standard Risk Based Assessment and Portfolio Based Risk Assessment to identify analysis tasking for the SLS program. This presentation examines the SLS System Requirements Review/System Definition Review (SRR/SDR), IV&V findings for IV&V process validation correlation to/from the selected IV&V tasking and capabilities. It also provides a reusable IEEE 1012 scorecard for programmatic completeness across the software development life cycle.

Driskell, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS2015

Enhancing Interdisciplinary Human System Risk Research Through Modeling and Network Approaches

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) supports research to reduce human health and performance risks inherent in future human space exploration missions. Understanding risk outcomes and contributing factors in an integrated manner allows HRP research to support development of efficient and effective mitigations from cross‐disciplinary perspectives, and to enable resilient human and engineered systems for spaceflight. The purpose of this work is to support scientific collaborations and research portfolio management by utilizing modeling for analysis and visualization of current and potential future interdisciplinary efforts.

Mindock, Jennifer↗
NASA NTRS2016

Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

Mindock, J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Geuther, Steven C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

"ATLAS" Advanced Technology Life-cycle Analysis System

Making good decisions concerning research and development portfolios-and concerning the best systems concepts to pursue - as early as possible in the life cycle of advanced technologies is a key goal of R&D management This goal depends upon the effective integration of information from a wide variety of sources as well as focused, high-level analyses intended to inform such decisions Life-cycle Analysis System (ATLAS) methodology and tool kit. ATLAS encompasses a wide range of methods and tools. A key foundation for ATLAS is the NASA-created Technology Readiness. The toolkit is largely spreadsheet based (as of August 2003). This product is being funded by the Human and Robotics The presentation provides a summary of the Advanced Technology Level (TRL) systems Technology Program Office, Office of Exploration Systems, NASA Headquarters, Washington D.C. and is being integrated by Dan O Neil of the Advanced Projects Office, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL

Lollar, Louis F.↗