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Light Element Abundances and Multiple Populations in M53

We present results from a study of 94 red giant stars in the globular cluster M53. We use low-resolution spectra to measure the strength of CN and CH features at ∼3800 and 4300 Å, respectively. The strengths of these features are used to classify stars into a CN-enhanced and CN-normal population and to measure C and N abundances in all 94 stars. We find the red giant branch stars to be evenly split between the two populations identified, and observe the presence of CN-enhanced stars on the asymptotic giant branch. In addition, we identify five CH star candidates based on the strength of their CN and CH band features, and the presence of a P-branch in their CH band. We compare our identification of multiple populations to those based on the Na–O anticorrelation and pseudo-color indices in Hubble Space Telescope UV photometry, and find general agreement between all three methods. Our large sample size also allows us to study the radial distribution of each population, and we find that the CN-enhanced population is more centrally concentrated. We use our C and N measurements to compare the evolutionary changes in these elements as a function of magnitude between the two populations, and show that both populations experience similar evolutionary changes to the surface abundances of C and N. Finally, we calculate C+N+O abundances for each population and compare them to similar measurements made in M10; we find that in both clusters, CN-enhanced stars have a slightly enhanced C+N+O (Δ(C+N+O) ∼ 0.2 dex).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Acoustic and Genetic Data Can Reduce Uncertainty Regarding Populations of Migratory Tree-Roosting Bats Impacted by Wind Energy

Wind turbine-related mortality may pose a population-level threat for migratory tree-roosting bats, such as the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) in North America. These species are dispersed within their range, making it impractical to estimate census populations size using traditional survey methods. Nonetheless, understanding population size and trends is essential for evaluating and mitigating risk from wind turbine mortality. Using various sampling techniques, including systematic acoustic sampling and genetic analyses, we argue that building a weight of evidence regarding bat population status and trends is possible to (1) assess the sustainability of mortality associated with wind turbines; (2) determine the level of mitigation required; and (3) evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation measures to ensure population viability for these species. Long-term, systematic data collection remains the most viable option for reducing uncertainty regarding population trends for migratory tree-roosting bats. We recommend collecting acoustic data using the statistically robust North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) protocols and that genetic diversity is monitored at repeated time intervals to show species trends. There are no short-term actions to resolve these population-level questions; however, we discuss opportunities for relatively short-term investments that will lead to long-term success in reducing uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Survival of Immature Gopher Tortoises Recruited into a Translocated Population

Population manipulations such as translocation and head-starting are increasingly used as recovery tools for chelonians. However, evaluating success of individual projects can require decades of monitoring to detect population trends in these long-lived species. Furthermore, there are often few benchmarks from stable, unmanipulated populations against which to compare demographic rates, particularly for the immature stages. Here, we used 8 years of mark-recapture data to estimate apparent survival of immature gopher tortoises recruited into an introduced population of gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) first established on St. Catherines Island, Georgia, USA in 1987. During 2006 29 -2013, we conducted targeted trapping of immature gopher tortoises and compared survival of the hatchling, juvenile and subadult stages among treatments: 1) individuals released shortly after hatching from eggs obtained from gravid female founders (‘direct releases’); 2) individuals reared in captivity for 6-9 months following hatching (‘head-starts’); and 3) individuals first encountered as free-ranging, wild-recruited offspring (‘wild recruits’). Among the candidate models we examined, the best fit model included additive effects of tortoise stage and treatment, however, overlapping 95% credible intervals among treatments (CI) suggested that survival did not vary significantly among treatments. Annual apparent survival increased over the immature period, highlighting the importance of calculating separate estimates for the different immature stages. Across all treatments, the additive model estimated annual apparent survival probability to be 0.37 (CI: 0.25 40 – 0.48) for hatchlings, 0.71 (CI: 0.61 – 0.81) for juveniles, and 0.83 (CI: 0.74 – 0.94) for subadults. Our study, in combination with previous monitoring efforts at St. Catherines Island, provides strong evidence that the translocation and subsequent population augmentation efforts have been successful in establishing a robust population of gopher tortoises. Additionally, our results provide estimates of demographic rates for life stages that are poorly understood but critical to understanding population dynamics of this imperiled species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

LandScan HD: a high-resolution gridded ambient population methodology for the world

Unwarned population distributions accounting for routine human activities are needed to address many global human security challenges, including disasters, conflict, and infrastructure demand. LandScan High Definition (LSHD) supports this need through gridded ambient population estimates that measure average human presence between daytime and nighttime at a high spatial resolution of 3 arcseconds (approximately 90 m). Although LSHD has traditionally been produced on a country-specific basis, advances in global foundational data and computational resources now enable scaling its methodology to the world. Combining aspects of top-down and bottom-up gridded population methods, LSHD allocates subnational population totals from authoritative statistics to built-up areas based on occupancy estimates for multiple facility types (e.g., residential, commercial) and then reaggregates these estimates to a global population grid. We scale this approach by organizing the LSHD data stack into a 1° resolution tileset of vector analytic features, enabling an efficient and repeatable workflow for all countries worldwide. Examining the Philippines as an output of the global LSHD baseline dataset, we contrast unwarned and residential (WorldPop) population distributions by (1) exploring a practical application of flood risk assessment and (2) evaluating their congruence with outcomes of collective human activities (subnational CO 2 emissions). Finally, we discuss plans to address current LSHD limitations through data/modeling and uncertainty quantification improvements and provide outlook for workflow automation and extending the model to social, demographic and economic population characteristics.

Building morphology↗

Bacterial population-level trade-offs between drought tolerance and resource acquisition traits impact decomposition

Microbes drive fundamental ecosystem processes, such as decomposition. Environmental stressors are known to affect microbes, their fitness, and the ecosystem functions that they perform; yet, understanding the causal mechanisms behind this influence has been difficult. We used leaf litter on soil surface as a model in situ system to assess changes in bacterial genomic traits and decomposition rates for 18 months with drought as a stressor. We hypothesized that genome-scale trade-offs due to investment in stress tolerance traits under drought reduce the capacity for bacterial populations to carry out decomposition, and that these population-level trade-offs scale up to impact emergent community traits, thereby reducing decomposition rates. We observed drought tolerance mechanisms that were heightened in bacterial populations under drought, identified as higher gene copy numbers in metagenome-assembled genomes. A subset of populations under drought had reduced carbohydrate-active enzyme genes that suggested—as a trade-off—a decline in decomposition capabilities. These trade-offs were driven by community succession and taxonomic shifts as distinct patterns appeared in populations. We show that trait–trade-offs in bacterial populations under drought could scale up to reduce overall decomposition capabilities and litter decay rates. Using a trait-based approach to assess the population ecology of soil bacteria, we demonstrate genome-level trade-offs in response to drought with consequences for decomposition rates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

MetaPop: a pipeline for macro- and microdiversity analyses and visualization of microbial and viral metagenome-derived populations

Abstract Background Microbes and their viruses are hidden engines driving Earth’s ecosystems from the oceans and soils to humans and bioreactors. Though gene marker approaches can now be complemented by genome-resolved studies of inter-(macrodiversity) and intra-(microdiversity) population variation, analytical tools to do so remain scattered or under-developed. Results Here, we introduce MetaPop, an open-source bioinformatic pipeline that provides a single interface to analyze and visualize microbial and viral community metagenomes at both the macro - and microdiversity levels. Macrodiversity estimates include population abundances and α- and β-diversity. Microdiversity calculations include identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms, novel codon-constrained linkage of SNPs, nucleotide diversity ( π and θ ), and selective pressures (pN/pS and Tajima’s D ) within and fixation indices ( F ST ) between populations. MetaPop will also identify genes with distinct codon usage. Following rigorous validation, we applied MetaPop to the gut viromes of autistic children that underwent fecal microbiota transfers and their neurotypical peers. The macrodiversity results confirmed our prior findings for viral populations (microbial shotgun metagenomes were not available) that diversity did not significantly differ between autistic and neurotypical children. However, by also quantifying microdiversity, MetaPop revealed lower average viral nucleotide diversity ( π ) in autistic children. Analysis of the percentage of genomes detected under positive selection was also lower among autistic children, suggesting that higher viral π in neurotypical children may be beneficial because it allows populations to better “bet hedge” in changing environments. Further, comparisons of microdiversity pre- and post-FMT in autistic children revealed that the delivery FMT method (oral versus rectal) may influence viral activity and engraftment of microdiverse viral populations, with children who received their FMT rectally having higher microdiversity post-FMT. Overall, these results show that analyses at the macro level alone can miss important biological differences. Conclusions These findings suggest that standardized population and genetic variation analyses will be invaluable for maximizing biological inference, and MetaPop provides a convenient tool package to explore the dual impact of macro - and microdiversity across microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Introgression and persistence of cultivar alleles in wild carrot ( Daucus carota ) populations in the United States

Abstract Premise Cultivated species and their wild relatives often hybridize in the wild, and the hybrids can survive and reproduce in some environments. However, it is unclear whether cultivar alleles are permanently incorporated into the wild genomes or whether they are purged by natural selection. This question is key to accurately assessing the risk of escape and spread of cultivar genes into wild populations. Methods We used genomic data and population genomic methods to study hybridization and introgression between cultivated and wild carrot (Daucus carota) in the United States. We used single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) obtained via genotyping by sequencing for 450 wild individuals from 29 wild georeferenced populations in seven states and 144 cultivars from the United States, Europe, and Asia. Results Cultivated and wild carrot formed two genetically differentiated groups, and evidence of crop–wild admixture was detected in several but not all wild carrot populations in the United States. Two regions were identified where cultivar alleles were present in wild carrots: California and Nantucket Island (Massachusetts). Surprisingly, there was no evidence of introgression in some populations with a long‐known history of sympatry with the crop, suggesting that post‐hybridization barriers might prevent introgression in some areas. Conclusions Our results provide support for the introgression and long‐term persistence of cultivar alleles in wild carrots populations. We thus anticipate that the release of genetically engineered (GE) cultivars would lead to the introduction and spread of GE alleles in wild carrot populations.

Plant Sciences↗

The influence of incubation temperature on offspring traits varies across northern and southern populations of the American alligator ( Alligator mississippiensis )

Maternal provisioning and the developmental environment are fundamental determinants of offspring traits, particularly in oviparous species. However, the extent to which embryonic responses to these factors differ across populations to drive phenotypic variation is not well understood. Here, we examine the contributions of maternal provisioning and incubation temperature to hatchling morphological and metabolic traits across four populations of the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis), encompassing a large portion of the species' latitudinal range. Our results show that whereas the influence of egg mass is generally consistent across populations, responses to incubation temperature show population-level variation in several traits, including mass, head length, head width, and residual yolk mass. Additionally, the influence of incubation temperature on developmental rate is greater at northern populations, while the allocation of maternal resources toward fat body mass is greater at southern populations. Overall, our results suggest that responses to incubation temperature, relative to maternal provisioning, are a larger source of interpopulation phenotypic variation and may contribute to the local adaptation of populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Characteristics of an Introduced Walleye Population with Implications for Suppression

Abstract The management of introduced fishes, including Walleye Sander vitreus, whether for control or enhancement, requires understanding of population dynamics at the invasion front. Walleye recently established in the Pend Oreille basin, Idaho, threaten the existing salmonid-based fish community and associated recreational fishery. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to describe population growth and associated life history characteristics. Walleye were sampled in October of 2011, 2014, and 2017 using a standardized gill netting survey protocol to describe trends in relative abundance and evaluate population dynamics. Relative abundance increased exponentially from 1.4 to 4.3 fish/net over the 6-year monitoring period. This population was characterized by fast somatic growth, robust body condition, and early age at maturity at or near the biological maxima for Walleye. Among the survey years, mean length at age 2 varied for female (359–441 mm) and male (358–426 mm) Walleye and relative weight varied from 91 to 98. The sampled Walleye matured at 1 to 4 years of age, and recruitment became more consistent as abundance increased. These density-dependent metrics suggest that the Walleye population is still at low density relative to carrying capacity. The information that was gained from this study was used to better understand potential risks and guide management decisions related to experimental population suppression that is now underway. Suppression under these conditions must overcome the recruitment capabilities of the population. We conclude that natural mortality is likely regulated by density-dependent processes. Therefore, at current (low) density, fishing mortality may be entirely additive and compensation is unlikely to further complicate management.

Ryan, Robert G.↗

Population assignment of migratory Westslope Cutthroat Trout (WCT) in the Clark Fork–Pend Oreille River basin

Abstract Objective The Clark Fork–Pend Oreille River basin of northeastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle historically supported a robust metapopulation of the Westslope Cutthroat Trout (WCT) Oncorhynchus lewisi, a western native salmonid of high cultural and economic value. The construction of impassible hydroelectric dams and smaller instream barriers has prevented the return of migratory WCT to spawning tributaries, leading to the fragmentation of this metapopulation over the past 100 years. One such impassible barrier is Albeni Falls Dam (AFD) near Newport, Washington, which was completed without fish passage capabilities in 1955. We sought to examine large-scale genetic patterns in the study area and determine the most likely spawning tributary of origin for migratory WCT captured below AFD. Methods We created a genetic baseline representative of populations within the Clark Fork–Pend Oreille River basin from upstream and downstream of the dam using 191 biallelic single-nucleotide polymorphism genetic markers. Our data set included 124 collections, which allowed for an examination of population structure and hatchery influence across the study area and provided a robust tool for population assignment. Population assignment tests were conducted using the program RUBIAS. Result Population assignment tests were successful for all pure WCT of unknown origin despite potential influence from hatchery lineages across the study area. Of 83 migratory WCT captured below AFD, approximately 80% were assigned to tributaries upstream of AFD with a posterior assignment probability of at least 90%. Only one fish was assigned to a tributary downstream of AFD. Conclusion Our results indicate that AFD disrupts the natural metapopulation dynamics of WCT populations in the basin. Passage for WCT at this barrier would reestablish metapopulation connectivity within the basin by allowing migratory individuals to make genetic contributions to populations upstream of the dam.

Wells, Craig D. (ORCID:0000000258513250)↗

Clonality, local population structure, and gametophyte sex ratios in cryptic species of the Sphagnum magellanicum complex

Sphagnum (peatmoss) comprises a moss (Bryophyta) clade with approximately 300-500 species. The genus has unparalleled ecological importance because Sphagnum-dominated peatlands store almost a third of the terrestrial carbon pool and peatmosses engineer the formation and microtopography of peatlands. Genomic resources for Sphagnum are being actively expanded, but many aspects of their biology are still poorly known. Among these are the degree to which Sphagnum species reproduce asexually, and the relative frequencies of male and female gametophytes in these haploid-dominant plants. Here, we assess clonality and gametophyte sex ratios and test hypotheses about the local-scale distribution of clones and sexes in four North American species of the S. magellanicum complex. These four species are difficult to distinguish morphologically and are very closely related. We also assess microbial communities associated with Sphagnum host plant clones and sexes at two sites. 405 samples of the four species, representing 57 populations, were subjected to RADseq. Analyses of population structure and clonality based on the molecular data utilized both phylogenetic and phenetic approaches. Multi-locus genotypes (genets) were identified using the RADseq data. Sexes of sampled ramets were determined using a molecular approach that utilized coverage of loci on the sex chromosomes after the method was validated using a sample of plants that expressed sex phenotypically. Sex ratios were estimated for each species, and populations within species. Differences in fitness between genets was estimated as the numbers of ramets each genet comprised. Degree of clonality (numbers of genets/numbers of ramets [samples]) within species, among sites, and between gametophyte sexes were estimated. Sex ratios were estimated for each species, and populations within species. Sphagnum-associated microbial communities were assessed at two sites in relation to Sphagnum clonality and sex. All four species appear to engage in a mixture of sexual and asexual (clonal) reproduction. A single ramet represents most genets but 2-8 ramets were detected for some genets. Only one genet is represented by ramets in multiple populations; all other genets are restricted to a single population. Within populations ramets of individual genets are spatially clustered, suggesting limited dispersal even within peatlands. Sex ratios are male-biased in S. diabolicum but female-biased in the other three species, although significantly so only in S. divinum. Neither species nor males/females differ in levels of clonal propagation. At St. Regis Lake (NY) and Franklin Bog (VT), microbial community composition is strongly differentiated between the sites, but differences between species, genets, and sexes were not detected. Within S. divinum, however, female gametophytes harbored 2-3 times the number oi of microbial taxa as males. These four Sphagnum species all exhibit a similar reproductive patterns that result from a mixture of sexual and asexual reproduction. The spatial patterns of clonally replicated ramets of genets suggest that these species fall between the so-called phalanx patterns where genets abut one another but do not extensively mix, because of limited ramet fragmentation, and the guerrilla patterns where extensive genet fragmentation and dispersal results in greater mixing of different genets. Although sex ratios in bryophytes are most often female-biased, both male and female biases occur in this complex of closely related species. The association of far greater microbial diversity for female gametophytes in S. divinum, which has a female-biased sex ratio, suggests additional research to determine if levels of microbial diversity are consistently correlated with differing patterns of sex ratio biases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

State-level suicide mortality insights: a comparative study of VHA veterans and the whole US population

Background: Suicide is a leading cause of death in the US Comparative State-level spatial analysis between Veterans Health Administration (VHA veterans) and the whole US population can reveal differences in conditions for targeted interventions and intricate geographical patterns. Methods: The study population contains 2018 and 2019 suicide deaths of VHA veterans and the whole US population. They were used to calculate state-level rates. States were classified by whether their VHA veteran and whole US population rates were above or below respective mean rates. Local Moran’s I was leveraged to examine spatial autocorrelation. Results: State-level suicide mortality rates and disparities among states were generally higher for VHA veterans (2018: 37.3 ± 7.2; 2019: 46.8 ± 8.3) than for the whole US population (2018: 16.6 ± 4.3; 2019: 16.4 ± 4.4). For both populations, there were statistically significant clusters with high suicide rates. Over one-fourth of states demonstrated inverse relationships, with rates above mean for one group but below for other. VHA veterans are at higher risk with over one-third of states had greater than average veteran suicide risk ratio. Conclusions: VHA veterans are at higher risk than the whole population across all states. Mortality disparities among states and clusters of states with high and low rates suggest targeted interventions and cooperative health strategies may help address these differences.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity between 1994 and 2018 in southern Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study

There is limited data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolutionary trends in African populations. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a 24-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994–2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011–2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was evaluated using the Shannon diversity index, and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Demographic history of HIV was inferred using a coalescent-based Bayesian Skygrid model. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including by migration status. 9931 HIV sequences were available from 4999 PLHIV, including 3060 and 1939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (P < .001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (P < .001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by nearly four-fold from 12.2% in 1995 to 44.8% in 2017. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While intra-subtype p24 genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, intra-subtype gp41 diversity, effective population size, and divergence increased through 2017. Intra- and inter-subtype viral diversity increased across all demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

At Risk Population Estimates for Belarus, Poland and Slovakia with Machine Learning

High-resolution gridded population modeling is crucial for various applications, including disaster response planning, infectious disease spread modeling, climate change impact estimation, policy development, and more. Multiple gridded population datasets have been developed, each tailored to meet specific objectives. Among them, LandScan Global dataset is designed to represent ambient and unwarned population distributions. However, this dataset relies on a statistical approach that requires manual adjustments, making it time consuming and labour intensive. Existing machine learning (ML) methods often train and test at different spatial resolutions, potentially leading to inflated results, and they rely on Census population totals for disaggregation. To address these limitations, in this study we developed population estimates using ML models trained and tested at a consistent 30 arc-second resolution (≈1 square kilometer), specifically using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. These models were trained on 2020 datum to predict for 2021 for three countries: Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. Our findings show that both RF (MAE varies from 5.75 to 13.25) and XGBoost (MAE varies from 8.15 to 23.44) model performance is close to LandScan Global estimates. Furthermore, neither of the models performed the best across all grid cells: the RF model was more effective in areas with lower populations, while XGBoost excelled in more densely populated regions. The proposed approach can be used for countries where the Census data is not available.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗

Post-Release Survivorship in a New Population of Blanding's Turtles Established Using Headstarted and Directly Released Turtles

Blanding’s Turtles are facing a variety of anthropogenic threats that decrease population viability. We initiated a project to establish a new population of Blanding’s Turtles on a National Wildlife Refuge in Massachusetts using hatchlings obtained from a nearby robust donor population. We released 440 head-started individuals and 401 directly-released hatchlings between 2007–2013 and conducted multiple years of post-release monitoring via aquatic trapping to estimate survival. Between 2014–2021 we released an additional 824 head-started and 433 directly-released individuals and conducted one year of aquatic trapping in 2021 to estimate population size. First year post-release survival of head-started turtles was six times that of directly-released hatchlings (0.72 vs. 0.12, respectively), but annual survival of both groups was 0.78–0.90 in subsequent years. Only 19% of turtles released at <60 mm carapace length (CL) were subsequently recaptured compared to 60% of those released at ≥60 mm CL, supporting 60 mm CL as a target minimum release size. The mean population estimates using two different study designs were 164 and 202, with 91 individuals encountered. Now that turtles released early in the project are approaching reproductive maturity, we recommend resampling and expanding trapping efforts to include more wetlands to assess long-term survival, abundance, and distribution of Blanding’s Turtles in this newly established population. Furthermore, our results, combined with other evaluations of head-starting across the species’ range, add credence to the use of head-starting as a population recovery tool for Blanding’s Turtles.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

LandCast Mosaic: Reconstructing Global Population Distributions, 1975-2025

LandCast Mosaic (LCM) provides a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset spanning 1975–2025, representing annual, scenario-consistent estimates of daytime, nighttime, and ambient population distributions. LCM builds on the 2025 LandScan Mosaic (LSM) population data by backcasting to earlier years using historical changes in built-surface area derived from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) and authoritative population counts from international datasets. The workflow scales 2025 building-informed gridded population estimates according to observed changes in built surface, applies linear interpolation for intermediate years, and normalizes estimates to match administrative- and country-level totals. The resulting dataset offers consistent, globally gridded population estimates over fifty years, suitable for temporal analyses of population dynamics, disaster risk modeling, and urban planning applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Oblique instability of quasi-parallel whistler waves in the presence of cold and warm electron populations

Whistler waves propagating nearly parallel to the ambient magnetic field experience a nonlinear instability due to transverse currents when the background plasma has a population of sufficiently low energy electrons. Intriguingly, this nonlinear process may generate oblique electrostatic waves, including whistlers near the resonance cone with properties resembling oblique chorus waves in the Earth’s magnetosphere. Focusing on the generation of oblique whistlers, earlier analysis of the instability is extended here to the case where low-energy background plasma consists of both a “cold” population with energy of a few eV and a “warm” electron component with energy of the order of 100 eV. This is motivated by spacecraft observations in the Earth’s magnetosphere where oblique chorus waves were shown to interact resonantly with the warm electrons. The main new results are: 1) the instability producing oblique electrostatic waves is sensitive to the shape of the electron distribution at low energies. In the whistler range of frequencies, two distinct peaks in the growth rate are typically present for the model considered: a peak associated with the warm electron population at relatively low wavenumbers and a peak associated with the cold electron population at relatively high wavenumbers; 2) overall, the instability producing oblique whistler waves near the resonance cone persists (with a reduced growth rate) even in the cases where the temperature of the cold population is relatively high, including cases where cold population is absent and only the warm population is included; 3) particle-in-cell simulations show that the instability leads to heating of the background plasma and formation of characteristic plateau and beam features in the parallel electron distribution function in the range of energies resonant with the instability. The plateau/beam features have been previously detected in spacecraft observations of oblique chorus waves. However, they have been attributed to external sources and have been proposed to be the mechanism generating oblique chorus. In the present scenario, the causality link is reversed and the instability generating oblique whistler waves is shown to be a possible mechanism for formation of the plateau and beam features.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Producing High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles at Scale

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the US via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. Our initial task involves creating ensembles for 17 US metropolitan areas, each consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system comprised of a research cloud, virtual containerization, GPU-enhanced functionality, and a dual API/CLI to interact with UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. We observe a reduction in theoretical execution time while maintaining high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by metropolitan area and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. We discuss expansion of our approach to produce synthetic population ensembles for the entire US, particularly plans to establish automated workflows for job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Gaboardi, James [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247766826)↗