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At least 55 records · Page 3

Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence

The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. In this study, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal; reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Volume 35, AMT-1 Cruise Report and Preliminary Results

This report documents the scientific activities on board the Royal Research Ship (RRS) 'James Clark Ross' during the irst Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT-1), 21 September to 24 October 1995. The ship sailed from Grimsby (England) for Montevideo (Uruguay) and then continued on to Stanley (Falkland Islands). The primary objective of the AMT program is to investigate basic biological processes in the open Atlantic Ocean over very broad spatial scales. For AMT-1, the meridional range covered was approximately 50 deg N to 50 deg S or nearly 8,000 nmi. The measurements to be taken during the AMT cruises are fundamental for the calibration, validation, and continuing understanding of remotely sensed observations of biological oceanography. They are also important for understanding plankton community structure over latitudinal scales and the role of the world ocean in global carbon cycles. During AMT-1 a variety of instruments were used to map the physical, chemical, and biological structure of the upper 200 m of the water column. Ocean color measurements were made using state-of-the-art sensors, whose calibration was traceable to the highest international standards. New advances in fluorometry were used to measure photosynthetic activity, which was then used to further interpret primary productivity. A unique set of samples and data were collected for the planktonic assemblages that vary throughout the range of the transect. These data will yield new interpretations on community composition and their role in carbon cycling. While the various provinces of the Atlantic Ocean were being crossed, the partial pressure of CO2 was related to biological productivity. This comparison revealed the areas of drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and how these areas relate to the surrounding biological productivity. These data, plus the measurements of light attenuation and phytoplankton optical properties, will be used as a primary input for basin-scale biological productivity models to help develop ecosystem dynamics models which will be important for improving the forecasting abilities of modelers. The AMT program is also attempting to meet the needs of international agencies in their implementation of Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Ocean Studies (SIMBIOS), a program to develop a methodology and operational capability to combine data products from the various ocean color satellite missions.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

Efficient Flowline Simulations of Ice Shelf-Ocean Interactions: Sensitivity Studies with a Fully Coupled Model

Thermodynamic flowline and plume models for the ice shelf-ocean system simplify the ice and ocean dynamics sufficiently to allow extensive exploration of parameters affecting ice-sheet stability while including key physical processes. Comparison between geophysically and laboratory-based treatments of ice-ocean interface thermodynamics shows reasonable agreement between calculated melt rates, except where steep basal slopes and relatively high ocean temperatures are present. Results are especially sensitive to the poorly known drag coefficient, highlighting the need for additional field experiments to constrain its value. These experiments also suggest that if the ice-ocean interface near the grounding line is steeper than some threshold, further steepening of the slope may drive higher entrainment that limits buoyancy, slowing the plume and reducing melting; if confirmed, this will provide a stabilizing feedback on ice sheets under some circumstances.

polar oceanography↗

An oceanic pathway for Madden–Julian Oscillation influence on Maritime Continent Tropical Cyclones

While the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been shown to affect tropical cyclones (TCs) worldwide through its modulation of large-scale circulation in the atmosphere, little or no role for the ocean has been identified to date in this influence of MJO on TCs. Using observations and numerical model simulations, we demonstrate that MJO events substantially impact TCs over the Maritime Continent (MC) region through an oceanic pathway. While propagating across the MC region, MJO events cause significant sea surface cooling with an area-averaged value of about 0.35 ± 0.12 °C. Hence, TCs over the MC region immediately following the passage of MJO events encounter considerably cooler sea surface temperatures. Consequently, the enthalpy fluxes under the storms are reduced and the intensification rates decrease by more than 50% on average. These results highlight an important role played by the ocean in facilitating MJO-induced sub-seasonal variability in TC activity over the MC region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A database of global storm surge reconstructions

Storm surges are among the deadliest coastal hazards and understanding how they have been affected by climate change and variability in the past is crucial to prepare for the future. However, tide gauge records are often too short to assess trends and perform robust statistical analyses. Here we use a data-driven modeling framework to simulate daily maximum surge values at 882 tide gauge locations across the globe. We use five different atmospheric reanalysis products for the storm surge reconstruction, the longest one going as far back as 1836. The data that we generate can be used, for example, for long-term trend analyses of the storm surge climate and identification of regions where changes in the intensity and/or frequency of storms surges have occurred in the past. It also provides a better basis for robust extreme value analysis, especially for tide gauges where observational records are short. The data are made available for public use through an interactive web-map as well as a public data repository.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative Magma Oceanography

The question of whether the Earth ever passed through a magma ocean stage is of considerable interest. Geochemical evidence strongly suggests that the Moon had a magma ocean and the evidence is mounting that the same was true for Mars. Analyses of martian (SNC) meteorites have yielded insights into the differentiation history of Mars, and consequently, it is interesting to compare that planet to the Earth. Three primary features of Mars contrast strongly to those of the Earth: (i) the extremely ancient ages of the martian core, mantle, and crust (about 4.55 b.y.); (ii) the highly depleted nature of the martian mantle; and (iii) the extreme ranges of Nd isotopic compositions that arise within the crust and depleted mantle. The easiest way to explain the ages and diverse isotopic compositions of martian basalts is to postulate that Mars had an early magma ocean. Cumulates of this magma ocean were later remelted to form the SNC meteorite suite and some of these melts assimilated crustal materials enriched in incompatible elements. The REE pattern of the crust assimilated by these SNC magmas was LREE enriched. If this pattern is typical of the crust as a whole, the martian crust is probably similar in composition to melts generated by small degrees of partial melting (about 5%) of a primitive source. Higher degrees of partial melting would cause the crustal LREE pattern to be essentially flat. In the context of a magma ocean model, where large degrees of partial melting presumably prevailed, the crust would have to be dominated by late-stage, LREE-enriched residual liquids. Regardless of the exact physical setting, Nd and W isotopic evidence indicates that martian geochemical reservoirs must have formed early and that they have not been efficiently remixed since. The important point is that in both the Moon and Mars we see evidence of a magma ocean phase and that we recognize it as such. Several lines of theoretical inference point to an early Earth that was also hot and, perhaps, mostly molten. The Giant Impact hypothesis for the origin of the Moon offers a tremendous input of thermal energy and the same could be true for core formation. And current solar system models favor the formation of a limited number of large (about 1000 km) planetesimals that, upon accreting to Earth, would cause great heating, being lesser versions of the Giant Impact. Several lines of geochemical evidence do not favor this hot early Earth scenario. (i) Terrestrial man-tle xenoliths are sometimes nearly chondritic in their major element compositions, suggesting that these rocks have never been much molten. Large degrees of partial melting probably promote differentiation rather than homogenization. (ii) Unlike the case of Mars, the continental crust probably did not form as a highly fractionated residual liquid from a magma ocean (about 99% crystallization), but, rather, formed in multiple steps. [The simplest model for the formation of continental crust is complicated: (a) about 10% melting of a primitive mantle, making basalt; (b) hydrothermal alteration of that basalt, converting it to greenstone; and (c) 10% partial melting of that greenstone, producing tonalite.] This model is reinforced by the recent observation from old (about 4.1 b.y.) zircons that the early crust formed from an undepleted mantle having a chondritic Lu/Hf ratio. (iii) If the mantle were once differentiated by a magma ocean, the mantle xenolith suite requires that it subsequently be homogenized. The Os isotopic compositions of fertile spinel lherzolites place constraints on the timing of that homogenization. The Os isotopic composition of spinel lherzolites approaches that of chondrites and correlates with elements such as Lu and Al. As Lu and Al concentrations approach those of the primitive mantle, Os isotopic compositions approach chondritic. The Re and Os in these xenoliths were probably added as a late veneer. Thus, the mantle that received the late veneer must have been nearly chondritic in terms of its major elements (excluding Fe). If the mantle that the veneer was mixed into was not al-ready homogenized, then Os isotopes should not correlate with incompatible elements such as Al. Consequently, either early differentiation of the mantle did not occur or the homogenization of this differentiation must have occurred before the late veneer was added. The timing of the late veneer is itself uncertain but presumably postdated core formation at about 4.45 b.y. and did not postdate the 3.8-3.9 b.y. late bombardment of the Moon. This timing based on siderophile elements is consistent with the Hf isotopic evidence cited above. If the Earth, Moon and Mars had magma oceans, the Earth subsequently rehomogenized whereas the Moon and Mars did not. The simplest solution to this observation is that homogenization of igneous differentiates was never necessary on Earth, either because the hypothetical magma ocean never occurred or because this event did not produce mantle differentiation.

Jones, J. H.↗

Atmospheric wind energization of ocean weather

Ocean weather comprises vortical and straining mesoscale motions, which play fundamentally different roles in the ocean circulation and climate system. Vorticity determines the movement of major ocean currents and gyres. Strain contributes to frontogenesis and the deformation of water masses, driving much of the mixing and vertical transport in the upper ocean. While recent studies have shown that interactions with the atmosphere damp the ocean’s mesoscale vortices O(100) km in size, the effect of winds on straining motions remains unexplored. Here, we derive a theory for wind work on the ocean’s vorticity and strain. Using satellite and model data, we discover that wind damps strain and vorticity at an equal rate globally, and unveil striking asymmetries based on their polarity. Subtropical winds damp oceanic cyclones and energize anticyclones outside strong current regions, while subpolar winds have the opposite effect. A similar pattern emerges for oceanic strain, where subtropical convergent flow is damped along the west-equatorward east-poleward direction and energized along the east-equatorward west-poleward direction. These findings reveal energy pathways through which the atmosphere shapes ocean weather.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning for Daily Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Motion: An Attribution Assessment of Model Predictive Skill

Physics-based simulations of Arctic sea ice are highly complex, involving transport between different phases, length scales, and time scales. Resultantly, numerical simulations of sea ice dynamics have a high computational cost and model uncertainty. We employ data-driven machine learning (ML) to make predictions of sea ice motion. The ML models are built to predict present-day sea ice velocity given present-day wind velocity and previous-day sea ice concentration and velocity. Models are trained using reanalysis winds and satellite-derived sea ice properties. We compare the predictions of three different models: persistence (PS), linear regression (LR), and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We quantify the spatiotemporal variability of the correlation between observations and the statistical model predictions. Additionally, we analyze model performance in comparison to variability in properties related to ice motion (wind velocity, ice velocity, ice concentration, distance from coast, bathymetric depth) to understand the processes related to decreases in model performance. Results indicate that a CNN makes skillful predictions of daily sea ice velocity with a correlation up to 0.81 between predicted and observed sea ice velocity, while the LR and PS implementations exhibit correlations of 0.78 and 0.69, respectively. The correlation varies spatially and seasonally: lower values occur in shallow coastal regions and during times of minimum sea ice extent. LR parameter analysis indicates that wind velocity plays the largest role in predicting sea ice velocity on 1-day time scales, particularly in the central Arctic. Regions where wind velocity has the largest LR parameter are regions where the CNN has higher predictive skill than the LR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

El Nino and the Global Ocean Observing System

Until a decade ago, an often-quoted expression in oceanography is that very few observations are recorded throughout the ocean. Now, the sentiment is no longer valid in the uppermost 10% of the tropical Pacific Ocean nor at the surface of the global ocean. One of the remarkable legacies of the 1985-1994 Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program is an in situ marine meteorological and upper oceanographic measurement array throughout the equatorial Pacific to monitor the development and maintenance of El Nino episodes. The TOGA Observing System, which initially consisted of moored- and drifting-buoy arrays, a network of commercial ships, and coastal and island stations, now includes a constellation of satellites and data-assimilating models to simulate subsurface oceanographic conditions. The El Nino and La Nina tropical Pacific Ocean observing system represents the initial phase of an integrated global ocean observing system. Remarkable improvements have been made in ocean model simulation of subsurface currents, but some problems persist. For example, the simulation of the South Equatorial Current (SEC) remains an important challenge in the 2S-2N Pacific equatorial wave guide. During El Nino the SEC at the equator is reduced and sometimes the direction is reversed, becoming eastward. Both conditions allow warm water stored in the western Pacific to invade the eastern region, creating an El Nino episode. Assimilation of data is a tenet of faith to correct simulation errors caused by deficiencies in surface fluxes (especially wind stress) and parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes. In the first of two numerical experiments, the Pacific SEC was simulated with and without assimilation of subsurface temperature data. Along the equator, a very weak SEC occurred throughout the eastern Pacific, independent of assimilation of data. However, as displayed in the diagram, in the western Pacific there was no satisfactory agreement between the two simulations. To help determine reliability of the simulated SEC in the western Pacific, current measurements recorded during the 9-19 October 1994 voyage of the French research vessel L'Atalante are also shown in the diagram. With data assimilation, the simulated SEC was in much better agreement with L'Atalante observations. The simulated SEC with data assimilation was far from perfect, in part because of the sparsity of subsurface temperature observations. In the next experiment, TOPEX/POSEIDON sea surface height data in combination with subsurface temperatures will be assimilated to assess further improvement of the simulation of the SEC.

Halpern, David↗

Oceanic Transport of Surface Meltwater from the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet

The Greenland ice sheet has undergone accelerating mass losses during recent decades. Freshwater runoff from ice melt can influence fjord circulation and dynamic1 and the delivery of bioavailable micronutrients to the ocean. It can also have climate implications, because stratification in the adjacent Labrador Sea may influence deep convection and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Yet, the fate of the meltwater in the ocean remains unclear. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model to show that only 1-15% of the surface meltwater runoff originating from southwest Greenland is transported westwards. In contrast, up to 50-60% of the meltwater runoff originating from southeast Greenland is transported westwards into the northern Labrador Sea, leading to significant salinity and stratification anomalies far from the coast. Doubling meltwater runoff, as predicted in future climate scenarios, results in a more-than-double increase in anomalies offshore that persists further into the winter. Interannual variability in offshore export of meltwater is tightly related to variability in wind forcing. The new insight that meltwaters originating from the west and east coasts have different fates indicates that future changes in mass loss rates and surface runoff will probably impact the ocean differently, depending on their Greenland origins.

Physical oceanography↗

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗

Ocean fronts and eddies force atmospheric rivers and heavy precipitation in western North America

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for over 90% of poleward water vapor transport in the mid-latitudes and can produce extreme precipitation when making landfall. However, weather and climate models still have difficulty simulating and predicting landfalling ARs and associated extreme precipitation, highlighting the need to better understand AR dynamics. Here, using high-resolution climate models and observations, we demonstrate that mesoscale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the Kuroshio Extension can exert a remote influence on landfalling ARs and related heavy precipitation along the west coast of North America. Inclusion of mesoscale SST forcing in the simulations results in approximately a 40% increase in landfalling ARs and up to a 30% increase in heavy precipitation in mountainous regions and this remote impact occurs on two-week time scales. The asymmetrical response of the atmosphere to warm vs. cold mesoscale SSTs over the eddy-rich Kuroshio Extension region is proposed as a forcing mechanism that results in a net increase of moisture flux above the planetary boundary layer, prompting AR genesis via enhancing moisture transport into extratropical cyclones in the presence of mesoscale SST forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia

Low-lying island nations like Indonesia are vulnerable to sea level Height EXtremes (HEXs). When compounded by marine heatwaves, HEXs have larger ecological and societal impact. Here we combine observations with model simulations, to investigate the HEXs and Compound Height-Heat Extremes (CHHEXs) along the Indian Ocean coast of Indonesia in recent decades. We find that anthropogenic sea level rise combined with decadal climate variability causes increased occurrence of HEXs during 2010–2017. Both HEXs and CHHEXs are driven by equatorial westerly and longshore northwesterly wind anomalies. For most HEXs, which occur during December-March, downwelling favorable northwest monsoon winds are enhanced but enhanced vertical mixing limits surface warming. For most CHHEXs, wind anomalies associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and co-occurring La Niña weaken the southeasterlies and cooling from coastal upwelling during May-June and November-December. Our findings emphasize the important interplay between anthropogenic warming and climate variability in affecting regional extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical Mixing Suppresses Submesoscale Baroclinic Instabilities Over Sloping Bathymetry

Abstract The impacts of spurious numerical salinity mixing on the larger‐scale flow and tracer fields are characterized using idealized simulations. The idealized model is motivated by realistic simulations of the Texas‐Louisiana shelf and features oscillatory near‐inertial wind forcing. can exceed the physical mixing from the turbulence closure in frontal zones and within the mixed layer. This suggests that simulated mixing processes in frontal zones are driven largely by . Near‐inertial alongshore wind stress amplitude is varied to identify a base case that maximizes the ratio of to in simulations with no prescribed horizontal mixing. We then test the sensitivity of the base case with three tracer advection schemes (MPDATA, U3HC4, and HSIMT) and conduct ensemble runs with perturbed bathymetry. Instability growth is evaluated using the volume‐integrated eddy kinetic energy and available potential energy . While all schemes have similar total mixing, the HSIMT simulations have over double the volume‐integrated and 20% less relative to other schemes, which suppresses the release of and reduces the by roughly 25%. This results in reduced isohaline variability and steeper isopycnals, evidence that enhanced suppresses instability growth. Differences in and between the MPDATA and U3HC4 simulations are marginal. However, the U3HC4 simulations have 25% more . Experiments with variable horizontal viscosity and diffusivity coefficients show that small amounts of prescribed horizontal mixing improve the representation of the ocean state for all advection schemes by reducing the and increasing the .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Verification and Improvement of ERS-1/2 Altimeter Geophysical Data Records for Global Change Studies

This Final Technical Report summarizes the research work conducted under NASA's Physical Oceanography Program entitled, Verification And Improvement Of ERS-112 Altimeter Geophysical Data Recorders For Global Change Studies, for the time period from January 1, 2000 through June 30, 2000. This report also provides a summary of the investigation from July 1, 1997 - June 30, 2000. The primary objectives of this investigation include verification and improvement of the ERS-1 and ERS-2 radar altimeter geophysical data records for distribution of the data to the ESA-approved U.S. ERS-1/-2 investigators for global climate change studies. Specifically, the investigation is to verify and improve the ERS geophysical data record products by calibrating the instrument and assessing accuracy for the ERS-1/-2 orbital, geophysical, media, and instrument corrections. The purpose is to ensure that the consistency of constants, standards and algorithms with TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimeter for global climate change studies such as the monitoring and interpretation of long-term sea level change. This investigation has provided the current best precise orbits, with the radial orbit accuracy for ERS-1 (Phases C-G) and ERS-2 estimated at the 3-5 cm rms level, an 30-fold improvement compared to the 1993 accuracy. We have finalized the production and verification of the value-added ERS-1 mission (Phases A, B, C, D, E, F, and G), in collaboration with JPL PODAAC and the University of Texas. Orbit and data verification and improvement of algorithms led to the best data product available to-date. ERS-2 altimeter data have been improved and we have been active on Envisat (2001 launch) GDR algorithm review and improvement. The data improvement of ERS-1 and ERS-2 led to improvement in the global mean sea surface, marine gravity anomaly and bathymetry models, and a study of Antarctica mass balance, which was published in Science in 1998.

Shum, C. K.↗

Inferred Sea Level Prediction in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System

Reliable predictions of sea level anomalies on seasonal timescales with lead times of 1 to 9 months may have relevance to stakeholders – for example, in the advance deployment of resources for coastal flood mitigation. Routine prediction and analysis may also highlight physical processes associated with sea level change and modeling capabilities on seasonal and other timescales. These forecasts may represent interannual changes in the seasonal slope of the ocean surface, teleconnection effects such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and variations in seasonal hydrology including precipitation and coastal runoff. Coupled atmosphere/ocean models are routinely used in the seasonal prediction of temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, sea ice cover, and climate indices such as the Niño3.4 predictions under the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) protocol. Within the limits of their configuration, these complex Earth-system models have a potential for depicting regional changes in oceanic column properties, including the sea surface height. Seasonal prediction models generally have no representation of long-term mass contributions from melting land ice, or changes in vertical land motion; their output may be more specifically characterized as predictions of the ocean dynamic sea level. In practice however, the sea surface height prognostic variable is substantially compromised by the forecast model response to initial conditions. Imbalances between the initial, observed hydrologic cycle and the forecast model state produce abrupt adjustments in the model sea surface height. As a result, most seasonal prediction systems employ a constraint on the globally-averaged sea surface height that is applied at each time step. This essentially renders the prognostic sea surface height variable as unserviceable. Several approaches have previously been used to retrieve sea level information from seasonal forecasts beyond the use of the sea surface height variable. Here, we extend a method of relating other prognostic values, including ocean circulation and climate indices, to observed sea level variations. We use the merged altimetry record of the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies data set and monthly revised local reference gauge observations from the National Oceanography Centre Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) to evaluate derived prognostic variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office subseasonal-to-seasonal system version 2.1 (GMAO S2S v2.1). We focus on results for the midlatitudes with particular emphasis on US gauge locations. As shown in previous studies, prognostic ENSO-related indices in boreal winter are well correlated with gauge observations for the US west coast, but also for other locations in the southeastern US. Other forecast climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have relations to sea level that are limited both seasonally and spatially. As expected, surface atmospheric pressure (e.g., inverse barometer effect) is found to be particularly well correlated with observed sea level. We provide a characterization of forecast skill for seasonal sea level with this method.

Richard I Cullather↗

Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean

In a warming climate, the Global Meridional Overturning Circulation (GMOC) is expected to change significantly with a risk of disrupting the global redistribution of ocean properties that sustains marine ecosystems, carbon cycle, and others. Here we make a novel attempt to utilize a diagnostic ocean & sea-ice model to estimate the GMOC and its interdecadal changes since the mid-1950s that are consistent with historical hydrographic observations. We find that significant changes in the GMOC have already occurred, most notably in the upper and lower overturning cells in the Southern Ocean. The former has expanded poleward and into denser water and strengthened by 3–4 Sv since the mid-1970s, while the latter has contracted and weakened by a similar rate during the same period. These changes are driven by the increasing Southern Hemisphere (SH) Ferrel cell and associated increases in the westerlies and the surface buoyancy loss over its sinking branch, and the increasing Antarctic meltwater discharge, in response to ozone depletion in the SH stratosphere and increasing atmospheric CO 2 . A large-scale readjustment of the GMOC seems to be underway in the South Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Oceans since the mid-2000s in response to the Southern Ocean changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗