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48 records · Page 3

An experimentally validated evaporative phase change heat transfer model for low mass flux applications using R134a in plate heat exchangers

Plate frame heat exchangers are common in liquid-coupled vapor compression systems due to their compactness and ease of maintenance. In some of these systems, the refrigerant within the evaporator can enter the heat exchanger as a subcooled liquid. As a result, the refrigerant passes through three different phases: single-phase liquid, two-phase fluid, and a superheated vapor. Unfortunately, there have been limited prior studies that have identified the best method to predict performance under these circumstances. Furthermore, previous investigations have not evaluated refrigerant evaporation in large industrial sized plate frame heat exchangers under conditions experienced in the present study experimental test facility, especially at mass fluxes below 7 kg m –2 s –1 . In the present investigation, a model was developed to predict the performance of plate and frame heat exchangers when the fluid enters as a subcooled liquid and exits as a superheated vapor. The model used full-sized plate heat exchanger geometry that was discretized into 20 sections to accurately capture local heat transfer and pressure drop effects. The model was validated using an R134a counter flow heat exchanger used in a turbo-compression cooling system test facility that had subcooled liquid entering the evaporator at low mass fluxes. A variety of empirical correlations were evaluated to determine what combination yielded the best predictive capability over the following range of conditions: 5.8 < G < 6.8 kg m –2 s –1 , 2 < q” < 2.8 kW m –2 , and 10 °C < T sat < 15 °C. When the correlations used a fixed control volume length in the heat flux calculation, the most accurate combination resulted in a mean absolute error of 5.5%. Finally, future studies can use the approach described here to optimize heat exchanger size and performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

TU-AB-202-05: GPU-Based 4D Deformable Image Registration Using Adaptive Tetrahedral Mesh Modeling

Purpose: Deformable image registration (DIR) has been employed today as an automated and effective segmentation method to transfer tumor or organ contours from the planning image to daily images, instead of manual segmentation. However, the computational time and accuracy of current DIR approaches are still insufficient for online adaptive radiation therapy (ART), which requires real-time and high-quality image segmentation, especially in a large datasets of 4D-CT images. The objective of this work is to propose a new DIR algorithm, with fast computational speed and high accuracy, by using adaptive feature-based tetrahedral meshing and GPU-based parallelization. Methods: The first step is to generate the adaptive tetrahedral mesh based on the image features of a reference phase of 4D-CT, so that the deformation can be well captured and accurately diffused from the mesh vertices to voxels of the image volume. Subsequently, the deformation vector fields (DVF) and other phases of 4D-CT can be obtained by matching each phase of the target 4D-CT images with the corresponding deformed reference phase. The proposed 4D DIR method is implemented on GPU, resulting in significantly increasing the computational efficiency due to its parallel computing ability. Results: A 4D NCAT digital phantom was used to test the efficiency and accuracy of our method. Both the image and DVF results show that the fine structures and shapes of lung are well preserved, and the tumor position is well captured, i.e., 3D distance error is 1.14 mm. Compared to the previous voxel-based CPU implementation of DIR, such as demons, the proposed method is about 160x faster for registering a 10-phase 4D-CT with a phase dimension of 256×256×150. Conclusion: The proposed 4D DIR method uses feature-based mesh and GPU-based parallelism, which demonstrates the capability to compute both high-quality image and motion results, with significant improvement on the computational speed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Diurnal and Semi-Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in CMIP6 Models Using Satellite- and Ground-Based Observations

We report the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation simulated from CMIP6 models during 1996-2005 are evaluated globally between 60°S and 60°N, as well as at ten selected locations representing three categories of diurnal cycle of precipitation: (1) afternoon precipitation over land, (2) early morning precipitation over ocean, and (3) nocturnal precipitation over land. Three satellite-based and two ground-based rainfall products are used to evaluate the climate models. Globally, the ensemble mean of CMIP6 models shows a diurnal phase of 3 to 4 hours earlier over land and 1 to 2 hours earlier over ocean, when compared with the latest satellite products. These biases are in line with what were found in previous versions of climate models but reduced compared to the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Analysis at the selected locations complimented with in-situ measurements further reinforces these results. Several CMIP6 models have shown a significant improvement in the diurnal cycle of precipitation compared to their CMIP5 counterparts, notably on delaying afternoon precipitation over land. This can be attributed to the use of more sophisticated convective parameterizations. Most models are still unable to capture the nocturnal peak associated with elevated convection and propagating mesoscale convective systems, with a few exceptions that allow convection to be initiated above the boundary layer to capture nocturnal elevated convection. We also quantify an encouraging consistency between the satellite- and ground-based precipitation measurements despite differing spatiotemporal resolutions and sampling periods, which provides confidence in using them to evaluate the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation in climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quasi-Steady Simulation of Glaze Ice Accretion and Heat Transfer in the Supercooled Large Droplet Regime in Atmospheric Turbulent Air Flow

Abstract To avoid the use of a computationally intensive full unsteady simulation while providing an accurate solution, a quasi-steady simulation has been performed to study glaze and mixed ice accretion in the supercooled large droplet (SLD) regime in turbulent flow of atmospheric air. We have attempted to find the minimum time-step necessary to adequately simulate the icing process on an airfoil surface. Based on node displacement, a mesh morphing scheme has been adopted in the computations to account for the moving boundaries that are caused by the continuous ice buildup. We have modeled ice accretion on an airfoil surface for a time period of 232 s using several time steps. At each time-step we solved the steady-state conservation equations for the air and droplet phases and then used the results as initial conditions for the next time position. The magnitude of the time-step ranged from a least accurate two-shot simulation (where the time-step is 116 s) to a most accurate 2320-shot simulation (where the time-step is 0.1 s). In-between these two extreme time steps, we have performed a three-shot simulation (where the time-step is 77.33 s), a four-shot simulation (where the time-step is 58 s), a six-shot simulation (where the time-step is 38.67 s), a 46-shot simulation (where the time-step is 5 s), and a 232-shot simulation (where the time-step is 1 s). We have done so to find out the degree of accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the multishot simulation approach and to find out the appropriate time-step needed for a successful and valid quasi-steady simulation. A valid quasi-steady simulation needs to use a time-step that is small enough to reproduce the full time-dependent solution within a very small error band. We have found that both the 1 s and the 0.1 s time steps produce virtually identical results. This is the primary litmus test that proves the validity of the quasi-steady-state assumption. The results adopted in this paper are thus all based on the more conservative 0.1 s time-step. In the process of performing the simulations, remeshing was required in order to maintain the grid density in zones of high curvature to be able to capture the full physics in those zones. After successfully modeling glaze ice accretion over the airfoil surface using the 0.1 s quasi-steady simulation approach, the effects of supercooled large droplets (SLDs) impacting the surface have been examined and presented in terms of the variation of the local collection efficiency, the water film thickness, and the heat transfer rate. Examination of the variation of the angle that the ice horn makes with the airfoil chord line demonstrated a 20% improvement in angle prediction when the time-step is reduced from 116 s to 0.1 s. The analysis also reveals a 12% or 8.5% increase in the maximum collection efficiency, βmax, depending on whether the value of the liquid water content (LWC) has been doubled from 0.5 g/m3 to 1 g/m3, or the value of the freestream velocity has been doubled from 75 m/s to 150 m/s, respectively. Because of the need to monitor the local collection efficiency and convective heat fluxes at each shot (regardless of the number of shots employed), the approach adopted here was found to be effective in successively and successfully reproducing the curvature of the glaze ice horn.

Engineering↗

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials using MALAMUTE

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy aims to develop and qualify additively manufactured materials for nuclear applications. One key challenge to this is the microstructural variability observed in the additively manufactured products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-throughput experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate qualification. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the additive manufacturing process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture microstructural variability is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning models to develop a digital twin for additive manufacturing that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the additive process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the unique microstructural characteristics of additively manufactured materials. Microstructural features at the subgrain level, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. Idaho National Laboratory’s Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for additively manufactured materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work focuses on capturing the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. In fiscal year 2025, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, in terms of the predictive capabilities of the physics-based and ML models, by adding the capabilities to capture subgrain-level micro-segregation during solidification using phase-field model and to predict the time-dependent dynamics of the AM process through the MOGPAR model. The alloy solidification model in MOOSE incorporates the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316 stainless steel. The model demonstrates the Cr and Ni segregation that occurs during solidification, including that the rate of solidification. The microstructural evolution model is connected to the process conditions via the surrogate model developed in this work. This enables predictions of the final microstructure in conjunctions with the manufacturing process. This work supports AMMT's rapid qualification goals by laying the foundation for an efficient and cost-effective model establishing the PSPP correlation for AM. The generated microstructures and predicted micro-segregation can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work helps to identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property and performance predictions of additively manufactured components. This work will also provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions and simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work can help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for additive manufacturing and accelerate the AMMT's qualification efforts.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimal surface-tension isotropy in the Rothman-Keller color-gradient lattice Boltzmann method for multiphase flow

The Rothman-Keller color-gradient (CG) lattice Boltzmann method is a popular method to simulate two-phase flow because of its ability to deal with fluids with large viscosity contrasts and a wide range of interfacial tensions. Here, two fluids are labeled red and blue, and the gradient in the color difference is used to compute the effect of interfacial tension. It is well known that finite-difference errors in the color-gradient calculation lead to anisotropy of interfacial tension and errors such as spurious currents. Here, we investigate the accuracy of the CG calculation for interfaces between fluids with several radii of curvature and find that the standard CG calculations lead to significant inaccuracy. Specifically, we observe significant anisotropy of the color gradient of order 7% for high curvature of an interface such as when a pinchout occurs. We derive a second order accurate color gradient and find that the diagonal nearest neighbors can be weighted differently than in the usual color-gradient calculation such that anisotropy is minimized to a fraction of a percent. The optimal weights that minimize anisotropy for the smallest radius of curvature interface are found to be w = (0.298, 0.284, 0.275) for diagonal nearest neighbors for the cases of the interface smoothing parameter β = (0.5, 0.7, 0.99), somewhat higher than the w = 0.25 value derived by Leclaire et al. [Leclaire, Reggio, and Trepanier, Computers and Fluids 48, 98 (2011)] based on obtaining isotropic errors to second order. We find that use of these optimal w values yields over a factor of 10 decrease in anisotropy and over a factor of 30 decrease in mean anisotropy relative to using the standard w = 1 value. And we find a factor of about 2 decrease in the anisotropic error and up to factor 15 decrease in mean anisotropic error relative to the choice of w = 0.25 for small radius of curvature interfaces. The improved CG calculations will allow the method to be more reliably applied to studies of phenomenology and pore scale processes such as viscous and capillary fingering, and droplet formation where surface-tension isotropy of narrow fingers and small droplets plays a crucial role in correctly capturing phenomenology. We present an example illustrating how different phenomena can be captured using the improved color-gradient method. Namely, we present simulations of a wetting fluid invading a fluid filled pipe where the viscosity ratio of fluids is unity in which droplets form at the transition to fingering using the improved CG calculations that are not captured using the standard CG calculations. We present an explanation of why this is so which relates to anisotropy of the surface tension, which inhibits the pinchouts needed to form droplets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Characterization of organic aerosol across the global remote troposphere: a comparison of ATom measurements and global chemistry models

The spatial distribution and properties of submicron organic aerosol (OA) are among the key sources of uncertainty in our understanding of aerosol effects on climate. Uncertainties are particularly large over remote regions of the free troposphere and Southern Ocean, where very few data have been available and where OA predictions from AeroCom Phase II global models span 2 to 3 orders of magnitude, greatly exceeding the model spread over source regions. The (nearly) pole-to-pole vertical distribution of non-refractory aerosols was measured with an aerosol mass spectrometer onboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft as part of the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission during the Northern Hemisphere summer (August 2016) and winter (February 2017). This study presents the first extensive characterization of OA mass concentrations and their level of oxidation in the remote atmosphere. OA and sulfate are the major contributors by mass to submicron aerosols in the remote troposphere, together with sea salt in the marine boundary layer. Sulfate was dominant in the lower stratosphere. OA concentrations have a strong seasonal and zonal variability, with the highest levels measured in the lower troposphere in the summer and over the regions influenced by biomass burning from Africa (up to 10 µg sm -3 ). Lower concentrations (~0.1–0.3 µg sm -3 ) are observed in the northern middle and high latitudes and very low concentrations (<0.1 µg sm -3 ) in the southern middle and high latitudes. The ATom dataset is used to evaluate predictions of eight current global chemistry models that implement a variety of commonly used representations of OA sources and chemistry, as well as of the AeroCom-II ensemble. The current model ensemble captures the average vertical and spatial distribution of measured OA concentrations, and the spread of the individual models remains within a factor of 5. These results are significantly improved over the AeroCom-II model ensemble, which shows large overestimations over these regions. However, some of the improved agreement with observations occurs for the wrong reasons, as models have the tendency to greatly overestimate the primary OA fraction and underestimate the secondary fraction. Measured OA in the remote free troposphere is highly oxygenated, with organic aerosol to organic carbon (OA/OC) ratios of ~2.2–2.8, and is 30 %–60 % more oxygenated than in current models, which can lead to significant errors in OA concentrations. The model–measurement comparisons presented here support the concept of a more dynamic OA system as proposed by Hodzic et al. (2016), with enhanced removal of primary OA and a stronger production of secondary OA in global models needed to provide better agreement with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Behavior of Natural Seep Vents: Analysis of Field and Laboratory Observations and Modeling (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

In this project, we have analyzed data collected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in a high pressure water tunnel (HPWT) and data from two research cruises to natural seeps in the Gulf of Mexico to adapt and validate a numerical model to predict the dynamics of natural seeps in the deep oceans. The HPWT data include video observations of the shrinkage rate of individual methane and natural gas bubbles under simulated deep-water conditions. Field data were collected during two cruises by the Gulf Integrated Spill Research (GISR) Consortium led by Texas A&M University and funded by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI). These data included in situ observations from a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) of gas bubbles at two natural seep sites in the Gulf and acoustic observations of the natural seep bubble flares in the ocean water column. The acoustic data were from multibeam echosounders, one mounted in a forward-looking orientation on the ROV and another mounted down-looking in the haul of the ship. All of these laboratory and field data were focused on the dynamics of natural gas bubbles at temperatures and pressures favorable for clathrate hydrate formation between the gas and water. Our analyses of this data focused on understanding the mechanisms responsible for gas bubble dissolution within the hydrate stability zone (HSZ) of the oceans. Ice-like hydrate shells may form on the bubble-water interface under these conditions, and it was unknown how this might affect the mass transfer of gas into the ocean. We were able to extract bubble shrinkage rates from the HPWT datasets. Using this data we determined that mass transfer coefficients with and without a hydrate shell match empirical values for bubbles in contaminated systems (so-called dirty bubbles contaminated by naturally occurring surfactants). We also showed that free gas, and not gas hydrate, is the dominant dissolving phase when the hydrate sub-cooling is below 11 degree Celsius (temperature difference between hydrate the hydrate formation temperature and ambient temperator) or the pressure is reducing as bubbles rise through the ocean water column. Using this mass transfer model, our numerical model of bubble dissolution matched the over 200 HPWT experiments with an average error of 10% for predicting the bubble size at the end of an experiment. From field data in the literature, we also observed that gas bubbles dissolve faster when they are initially released, following mass transfer coefficients for so-called clean-bubbles (those not yet contaminated by surfactants). Shortly after release within the HSZ, a hydrate shell forms on the bubble-water interface, and the mass transfer reduces to rates matching those of dirty bubbles. We correlated this transition time from clean to dirty bubble behavior with the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate sub-cooling. With this model for hydrate formation time and using the mass transfer coefficients deduced from the HPWT data, we validated our numerical model for predicting the rise heights of natural seep flares in the oceans. Flare heights are commonly observed in haul-mounted acoustic multibeam data. The numerical model predicts bubbles to rise high in the ocean water column owing to the slower mass transfer rates for dirty bubbles that accompany the majority of their rise time. We found that the numerical model predictions matched the observed flare heights within 5% to 10% accuracy when we compared the rise heights of the largest bubbles released from the seafloor with the bubbles acoustically visible in the multibeam data. Bubbles become acoustically transparent as they shrink to sizes of order 1 mm in diameter for the multibeam frequencies used in the field. The forward-looking multibeam on the ROV also provided data on the lateral spreading of bubbles in natural seep flares. Our analysis of this data showed that spreading follows a diffusion process, with the effective diffusivity correlating with the wobbling length scale of these ellipsoidal bubbles. When we apply this diffusivity in a random displacement model of bubble spreading, our numerical simulations match closely the lateral spread observed by the M3 in the ocean water column. Finally, we compared the seep model predictions for the acoustic properties of these natural seep plumes with that observed by the acoustic instruments in the field. The M3 and EM 302 observations were converted to relative values of target strength using a calibration we obtained in the laboratory for the M3 and using an algorithm from the manufacturer for the EM 302. Comparing the numerical seep model to these data, we obtain good agreement over the whole height of rise of these bubble flares. This further validates the numerical model. Overall, our validated seep model captures the key dynamics of gas bubbles released from natural seeps in the oceans and helps to predict the fate of methane in the water column.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Field evaluation of remote wind sensing technologies: Shore-based and buoy mounted LIDAR systems

In developing a national energy strategy, the United States has a number of objectives, including increasing economic growth, improving environmental quality, and enhancing national energy security. Wind power contributes to these objectives through the deployment of clean, affordable and reliable domestic energy. To achieve U.S. wind generation objectives, the Wind and Water Power Program within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) instituted the U.S. Offshore Wind: Removing Market Barriers Program in FY 2011. Accurate and comprehensive information on offshore wind resource characteristics across a range of spatial and temporal scales is one market barrier that needs to be addressed through advanced research in remote sensing technologies. There is a pressing need for reliable offshore wind-speed measurements to assess the availability of the potential wind energy resource in terms of power production and to identify any frequently occurring spatial variability in the offshore wind resource that may impact the operational reliability and lifetime of wind turbines and their components and to provide a verification program to validate the “bankability” of the output of these alternative technologies for use by finance institutions for the financing of offshore wind farm construction. The application of emerging remote sensing technologies is viewed as a means to cost-effectively meet the data needs of the offshore wind industry. In particular, scanning and buoy mounted LIDAR have been proposed as a means to obtain accurate offshore wind data at multiple locations without the high cost and regulatory hurdles associated with the construction of offshore meteorological towers. However; before these remote sensing technologies can be accepted the validity of the measured data must be evaluated to ensure their accuracy. The proposed research will establish a unique coastal ocean test-bed in the Mid-Atlantic for the evaluation of LIDAR-based wind measurement systems to validate the accuracy of remotely measured wind data in marine applications. Specifically, the test-bed will be utilized to systematically evaluate the capability of emerging scanning LIDAR and buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR by: (1) Evaluating a fixed scanning LIDAR against land-based 50 and 60 meter high meteorological masts fitted with research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers; (2) Evaluating a buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR fixed on land and floating in a sheltered bay against a co-located 60 meter high meteorological mast fitted with a research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers and the fixed scanning LIDAR; and (3) Offshore field evaluation of both LIDAR platforms through a comparison of the fixed scanning LIDAR data and data obtained by the buoy mounted LIDAR located 10 miles offshore. The proposed research will systematically validate Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) based wind measurement systems and assess the temporal and spatial variability of the offshore wind resource in the Mid-Atlantic east of New Jersey. The goal of the proposed project is to address the technical and commercial challenges of the offshore wind energy industry by validating and assessing cost-effective, over ocean wind resource characterization technologies. The objective is to systematically evaluate the capability of both scanning and vertically profiling LIDARs to accurately measure 3D wind fields through comparison with fixed met masts and intercomparison among LIDAR platforms. Once validated, data collected by both buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDARs and shore-based, pulsed horizontally scanning LIDARs can be used to accurately assess offshore wind resources and to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in the offshore wind fields. One of the fundamental research questions to be addressed in phase 1 is the assessment of various measurement and data processing schemes to retrieve accurate wind vectors in the marine environment over large sampling ranges (10 to 12 km) and varying atmospheric aerosol levels. Atmospheric conditions and aerosol content within the coastal ocean region of the Mid-Atlantic seaboard of the US can vary significantly over short time periods in response to frontal passages and extratropical and tropical low pressure system passage offshore of the coast. Since aerosols provide the scattering medium for the determination of LIDAR Doppler shifts in the atmosphere the accuracy and range of LIDAR derived velocity measurements as a function of variation in aerosol content in the marine environment is a key research question to be addressed. In phase 1, it is desired to capture as much variation in atmospheric conditions and aerosol content as possible. To this end, collocated measurements of LIDAR and standard anemometer wind fields will be captured by the project PIs over all four seasons and during specific events (e.g., coastal low pressure system passage) in year 1. Additionally, since the meteorological masts are permanent structures, additional events can be captured over the three year duration of the field research project. All research instruments are owned by Fishermen’s Energy and made available to the PIs though a lease agreement as part of the DOE grant. Energy Fishermen’s Energy will be responsible for the operation and maintenance of the scanning LIDAR and met mast anemometers. On a daily basis, environmental data and systems performance indicators will be transmitted from each measurement station to the Fishermen’s project team consisting of both in-house personnel and equipment manufacturer engineers. Data sets include compiled LIDAR files as well as data sets from ancillary sensors. Diagnostic parameters to be monitored include standard deviations of measured values, battery levels and charging systems output, and the operational status. Once data have been confirmed as complete and reliable, files will be transferred to the Garrad Hassan (a subcontractor to Fishermen’s Energy) for incorporation in to the validation database, which is accessible to other scientific team members. Data collection times and durations will be determined by the PI and Co-PIs in consultation with instrument engineers to ensure the capture of data representative of the expected range of mid-Atlantic atmospheric conditions (e.g., temperature, moisture, coastal low pressure systems, tropical systems, rain, snow, fog). The collection and processing of the data is a function of site specific measurement requirements (Kelley et.al. 2007; Hannon et.al. 2008). To determine the optimal profiles of wind speed and direction from the LIDAR radial velocities as a function of azimuth angle, rigorous estimates of the bias and random error of each radial velocity estimate are required. Lockheed Martin Coherent Technologies, Inc., under contract with Fishermen’s Energy, will provide analyses of raw and processed data using various scan patterns to determine optimal performance settings for the pulsed scanning LIDAR. Once optimized, appropriate processing and analyses techniques will be evaluated by Garrad Hassan for use in validating the accuracy of the LIDAR wind field measurements against the standard anemometer measurements from the meteorological masts. The most attractive capability of the scanning LIDAR is the ability to provide high spatial resolution observations in a three-dimensional volume which provides superior statistical accuracy due to the large number of samples obtained. Each radial scan provides measurements in 100 range gates over a distance of 10 to 12 km at an update rate of 5 to 10 Hz and rotation of 2.5° per second. Each rotation at a fixed azimuth requires 2.4 minutes. Depending on the number of azimuths desired a complete scan can take up to 10 minutes or longer to complete. Once collected the radial velocities are processed to produce vector wind velocity estimates based on a set of data distributed in angle and range around points of interest, typically a standard grid within the radial wind map. To calculate wind vectors over a limited spatial area of interest for the comparison of data with other measurement platforms a localized least-squares approach has been applied by Hannon et.al. (2008) and a Variation Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and al Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and Shao (2006). Additionally, Kelley et.al. (2007) applied a “stare” technique that fixed a scanning LIDAR in both azimuth and elevation angles to measure over collocated sampling volumes of the LIDAR and a 3D sonic anemometer mounted to a fixed mast. Although the stare technique is limited to wind directions aligned with the sampling radial of the LIDAR, it does provide a direct comparison of sampling volumes. Each of the processing techniques described above (and possibly others) will be evaluated to determine the validity of the LIDAR derived wind fields in the marine environment. Numerical methods such as linear regression and comparison of probability density functions of wind fields measured by each instrument platform will be used to assess the processing techniques. Linear regression has the advantage of directly evaluating corresponding pairs of wind data measured by each instrument and can lend insight into deviations and bias between instruments as a function of wind speed. Assessment of the coherency between the probability density function of the wind measured by each instrument provides insight into processes that may not be accurately resolved by each instrument at specific frequencies. Once processed and assessed the most appropriate technique will be utilized to provide valid wind measurements from the pulsed scanning LIDAR. A detailed analysis of the measurement data from the LIDAR and the three meteorological towers and comparison of the coastal wind characteristics from the different systems will be performed by the CO_PI at NREL. This analysis will evaluate how the WT LIDAR performance and measurement of the wind characteristics vary with distance from the LIDAR and by atmospheric conditions; using the tower measurements at different distances (4.8, 9.6, and 19 km) from the LIDAR as a reference. The comparative analysis will include, to the extent possible, evaluation of parameters such as wind speed and direction distributions, wind shear, turbulence intensity and their variations by atmospheric conditions, month or season, and time of day.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Challenges at the Frontiers of Matter and Energy: Transformative Opportunities for Discovery Science

FIVE TRANSFORMATIVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR DISCOVERY SCIENCE As a result of this effort, it has become clear that the progress made to date on the five Grand Challenges has created a springboard for seizing five new Transformative Opportunities that have the potential to further transform key technologies involving matter and energy. These five new Transformative Opportunities and the evidence supporting them are discussed in this new report, “Challenges at the Frontiers of Matter and Energy: Transformative Opportunities for Discovery Science.” Mastering Hierarchical Architectures and Beyond-Equilibrium Matter Complex materials and chemical processes transmute matter and energy, for example from CO2 and water to chemical fuel in photosynthesis, from visible light to electricity in solar cells and from electricity to light in light emitting diodes (LEDs) Such functionality requires complex assemblies of heterogeneous materials in hierarchical architectures that display time-dependent away-from-equilibrium behaviors. Much of the foundation of our understanding of such transformations however, is based on monolithic single- phase materials operating at or near thermodynamic equilibrium. The emergent functionalities enabling next-generation disruptive energy technologies require mastering the design, synthesis, and control of complex hierarchical materials employing dynamic far-from-equilibrium behavior. A key guide in this pursuit is nature, for biological systems prove the power of hierarchical assembly and far- from-equilibrium behavior. The challenges here are many: a description of the functionality of hierarchical assemblies in terms of their constituent parts, a blueprint of atomic and molecular positions for each constituent part, and a synthesis strategy for (a) placing the atoms and molecules in the proper positions for the component parts and (b) arranging the component parts into the required hierarchical structure. Targeted functionality will open the door to significant advances in the harvesting, transforming (e.g., reducing CO2, splitting water, and fixing nitrogen), storing, and use of energy to create new materials, manufacturing processes, and technologies—the lifeblood of human societies and economic growth. Beyond Ideal Materials and Systems: Understanding the Critical Roles of Heterogeneity, Interfaces, and Disorder Real materials, both natural ones and those we engineer, are usually a complex mixture of compositional and structural heterogeneities, interfaces, and disorder across all spatial and temporal scales. It is the fluctuations and disorderly states of these heterogeneities and interfaces that often determine the system’s properties and functionality. Much of our fundamental scientific knowledge is based on “ideal” systems, meaning materials that are observed in “frozen” states or represented by spatially or temporally averaged states. Too often, this approach has yielded overly simplistic models that hide important nuances and do not capture the complex behaviors of materials under realistic conditions. These behaviors drive vital chemical transformations such as catalysis, which initiates most industrial manufacturing processes, and friction and corrosion, the parasitic effects of which cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars annually. Expanding our scientific knowledge from the relative simplicity of ideal, perfectly ordered, or structurally averaged materials to the true complexity of real-world heterogeneities, interfaces, and disorder should enable us to realize enormous benefits in the materials and chemical sciences, which translates to the energy sciences, including solar and nuclear power, hydraulic fracturing, power conversion, airframes, and batteries. Harnessing Coherence in Light and Matter Quantum coherence in light and matter is a measure of the extent to which a wave field vibrates in unison with itself at neighboring points in space and time. Although this phenomenon is expressed at the atomic and electronic scales, it can dominate the macroscopic properties of materials and chemical reactions such as superconductivity and efficient photosynthesis. In recent years, enormous progress has been made in recognizing, manipulating, and exploiting quantum coherence. This progress has already elucidated the role that symmetry plays in protecting coherence in key materials, taught us how to use light to manipulate atoms and molecules, and provided us with increasingly sophisticated techniques for controlling and probing the charges and spins of quantum coherent systems. With the arrival of new sources of coherent light and electron beams, thanks in large part to investments by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Basic Energy Sciences (BES), there is now an opportunity to engineer coherence in heterostructures that incorporate multiple types of materials and to control complex, multistep chemical transformations. This approach will pave the way for quantum information processing and next-generation photovoltaic cells and sensors. Revolutionary Advances in Models, Mathematics, Algorithms, Data, and Computing Science today is benefiting from a convergence of theoretical, mathematical, computational, and experimental capabilities that put us on the brink of greatly accelerating our ability to predict, synthesize, and control new materials and chemical processes, and to understand the complexities of matter across a range of scales. Imagine being able to chart a path through a vast sea of possible new materials to find a select few with desired properties. Instead of the time-honored forward approach, in which materials with desired properties are found through either trial-and-error experiments or lucky accidents, we have the opportunity to inversely design and create new materials that possess the properties we desire. The traditional approach has allowed us to make only a tiny fraction of all the materials that are theoretically possible. The inverse design approach, through the harmonious convergence of theoretical, mathematical, computational, and experimental capabilities, could usher in a virtual cornucopia of new materials with functionalities far beyond what nature can provide. Similarly, enhanced mathematical and computational capabilities significantly enhance our ability to extract physical and chemical insights from vastly larger data streams gathered during multimodal and multidimensional experiments using advanced characterization facilities. Exploiting Transformative Advances in Imaging Capabilities across Multiple Scales Historically, improvements in imaging capabilities have always resulted in improved understanding of scientific phenomena. A prime challenge today is finding ways to reconstruct raw data, obtained by probing and mapping matter across multiple scales, into analyzable images. BES investments in new and improved imaging facilities, most notably synchrotron x-ray sources, free-electron lasers, electron microscopes, and neutron sources, have greatly advanced our powers of observation, as have substantial improvements in laboratory- scale technologies. Furthermore, BES is now planning or actively discussing exciting new capabilities. Taken together, these advances in imaging capabilities provide an opportunity to expand our ability to observe and study matter from the 3D spatial perspectives of today to true “4D” spatially and temporally resolved maps of dynamics that allow quantitative predictions of time-dependent material properties and chemical processes. The knowledge gained will impact data storage, catalyst design, drug delivery, structural materials, and medical implants, to name just a few key technologies. ENABLING SUCCESS Seizing each of these five Transformative Opportunities, as well as accelerating further progress on Grand Challenge research, will require specific, targeted investments from BES in the areas of synthesis, meaning the ability to make the materials and architectures that are envisioned; instrumentation and tools, a category that includes theory and computation; and human capital, the most important asset for advancing the Grand Challenges and Transformative Opportunities. While “Challenges at the Frontiers of Matter and Energy: Transformative Opportunities for Discovery Science” could be viewed as a sequel to the original Grand Challenges report, it breaks much new ground in its assessment of the scientific landscape today versus the scientific landscape just a few years ago. In the original Grand Challenges report, it was noted that if the five Grand Challenges were met, our ability to direct matter and energy would be measured only by the limits of human imagination. This new report shows that, prodded by those challenges, the scientific community is positioned today to seize new opportunities whose impacts promise to be transformative for science and society, as well as dramatically accelerate progress in the pursuit of the original Grand Challenges.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Fifth International Workshop on Ice Nucleation phase 2 (FIN-02): laboratory intercomparison of ice nucleation measurements

Abstract. The second phase of the Fifth International Ice Nucleation Workshop (FIN-02)involved the gathering of a large number of researchers at the KarlsruheInstitute of Technology's Aerosol Interactions and Dynamics of the Atmosphere(AIDA) facility to promote characterization and understanding of icenucleation measurements made by a variety of methods used worldwide.Compared to the previous workshop in 2007, participation was doubled,reflecting a vibrant research area. Experimental methods involved sampling ofaerosol particles by direct processing ice nucleation measuring systems fromthe same volume of air in separate experiments using different ice nucleatingparticle (INP) types, and collections of aerosol particle samples ontofilters or into liquid for sharing amongst measurement techniques thatpost-process these samples. In this manner, any errors introduced bydifferences in generation methods when samples are shared across laboratorieswere mitigated. Furthermore, as much as possible, aerosol particle sizedistribution was controlled so that the size limitations of different methodswere minimized. The results presented here use data from the workshop toassess the comparability of immersion freezing measurement methods activatingINPs in bulk suspensions, methods that activate INPs in condensation and/orimmersion freezing modes as single particles on a substrate, continuous flowdiffusion chambers (CFDCs) directly sampling and processing particles wellabove water saturation to maximize immersion and subsequent freezing ofaerosol particles, and expansion cloud chamber simulations in which liquidcloud droplets were first activated on aerosol particles prior to freezing.The AIDA expansion chamber measurements are expected to be the closestrepresentation to INP activation in atmospheric cloud parcels in thesecomparisons, due to exposing particles freely to adiabatic cooling. The different particle types used as INPs included the minerals illite NX andpotassium feldspar (K-feldspar), two natural soil dusts representative of arable sandy loam(Argentina) and highly erodible sandy dryland (Tunisia) soils, respectively,and a bacterial INP (Snomax ® ). Consideredtogether, the agreement among post-processed immersion freezing measurementsof the numbers and fractions of particles active at different temperaturesfollowing bulk collection of particles into liquid was excellent, withpossible temperature uncertainties inferred to be a key factor in determiningINP uncertainties. Collection onto filters for rinsing versus directly intoliquid in impingers made little difference. For methods that activatedcollected single particles on a substrate at a controlled humidity at orabove water saturation, agreement with immersion freezing methods was good inmost cases, but was biased low in a few others for reasons that have not beenresolved, but could relate to water vapor competition effects. AmongstCFDC-style instruments, various factors requiring (variable) highersupersaturations to achieve equivalent immersion freezing activation dominatethe uncertainty between these measurements, and for comparison with bulkimmersion freezing methods. When operated above water saturation to includeassessment of immersion freezing, CFDC measurements often measured at orabove the upper bound of immersion freezing device measurements, but oftenunderestimated INP concentration in comparison to an immersion freezingmethod that first activates all particles into liquid droplets prior tocooling (the PIMCA-PINC device, or Portable Immersion Mode Cooling chAmber–Portable Ice Nucleation Chamber), and typically slightly underestimated INPnumber concentrations in comparison to cloud parcel expansions in the AIDAchamber; this can be largely mitigated when it is possible to raise therelative humidity to sufficiently high values in the CFDCs, although this isnot always possible operationally. Correspondence of measurements of INPs among direct sampling andpost-processing systems varied depending on the INP type. Agreement was bestfor Snomax ® particles in the temperature regimecolder than −10 ∘ C, where their ice nucleation activity is nearlymaximized and changes very little with temperature. At temperatures warmer than −10 ∘ C, Snomax ® INP measurements (allvia freezing of suspensions) demonstrated discrepancies consistent withprevious reports of the instability of its protein aggregates that appear tomake it less suitable as a calibration INP at these temperatures. ForArgentinian soil dust particles, there was excellent agreement across allmeasurement methods; measures ranged within 1 order of magnitude for INPnumber concentrations, active fractions and calculated active site densitiesover a 25 to 30 ∘ C range and 5 to 8 orders of correspondingmagnitude change in number concentrations. This was also the case for alltemperatures warmer than −25 ∘ C in Tunisian dust experiments. Incontrast, discrepancies in measurements of INP concentrations or active sitedensities that exceeded 2 orders of magnitude across a broad range of temperaturemeasurements found at temperatures warmer than −25 ∘ C in a previous study werereplicated for illite NX. Discrepancies also exceeded 2 orders of magnitude attemperatures of −20 to −25 ∘ C for potassium feldspar (K-feldspar), but these coincidedwith the range of temperatures at which INP concentrations increase rapidly atapproximately an order of magnitude per 2 ∘ C cooling forK-feldspar. These few discrepancies did not outweigh the overall positive outcomes of theworkshop activity, nor the future utility of this data set or future similarefforts for resolving remaining measurement issues. Measurements of the samematerials were repeatable over the time of the workshop and demonstratedstrong consistency with prior studies, as reflected by agreement of databroadly with parameterizations of different specific or general (e.g., soildust) aerosol types. The divergent measurements of the INP activity of illiteNX by direct versus post-processing methods were not repeated for otherparticle types, and the Snomax ® datademonstrated that, at least for a biological INP type, there is no expectedmeasurement bias between bulk collection and direct immediately processedfreezing methods to as warm as −10 ∘ C. Since particle size rangeswere limited for this workshop, it can be expected that for atmosphericpopulations of INPs, measurement discrepancies will appear due to thedifferent capabilities of methods for sampling the full aerosol sizedistribution, or due to limitations on achieving sufficient watersupersaturations to fully capture immersion freezing in direct processinginstruments. Overall, this workshop presents an improved picture of presentcapabilities for measuring INPs than in past workshops, and providesdirection toward addressing remaining measurement issues.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗