SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “peak flows”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Diffusion Models Advance Extreme Flood Forecasting

Extreme floods pose escalating risks in a changing climate, yet forecasting remains challenging due to peak flow underestimation and high uncertainty. We introduce diffusion-based runoff model (DRUM), a probabilistic deep learning (DL) approach that advances extreme flood forecasting across representative basins in the contiguous United States. DRUM outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, enhancing nowcasting skill for the top 1‰ of flows in 72.3% of studied basins. Under operational scenarios, DRUM extends reliable lead times by nearly a full day for 20- and 50-year floods. When evaluated with measured precipitation, an ideal condition, recall improves by 0.3–0.4 and the early warning window extends by 2.3 days for 50-year floods. The enhancement potential varies regionally, with precipitation-driven flood zones in the eastern and northwestern US benefiting most, gaining 3–7 days in lead time. These findings highlight the transformative potential of diffusion models as a cutting-edge generative AI technique for advancing hydrology and broader Earth system sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Retrospective Analysis of Backwater Habitat Availability Using Remote Sensing

Low-velocity channel-margin habitats serve as important nursery habitats for the endangered Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) in the middle Green River between Jensen and Ouray, Utah. These habitats, known as backwaters, are associated with emergent sandbars, and are shaped and reformed annually by peak flows. Our recent knowledge about backwater characteristics and dynamics that is summarized in the synthesis report (Grippo et al. 2015) was based on detailed annual survey data from a relatively small sample of backwaters that were collected from 2003 to 2014 and reach-wide evaluations of backwater surface area based on manual interpretation of aerial and satellite imagery. Methods that bridge the gap between the detailed surveys from a small number of backwaters and the reach-wide assessment of their surface area would enable an assessment of the availability of backwater habitats that meet the minimum depth requirements for suitable habitat for Colorado pikeminnow. In 2015 Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) tested three regression models—linear, multiple, and partial least square (PLS) regression models—for estimating backwater depth using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery collected in July 2006 that covered the Jensen-Ouray reach of the Green River (Hamada and LaGory 2016). The results suggested that a PLS regression model showed high correlation with the reference depth (R 2 = 0.69) and had the most unbiased and consistent estimate of backwater depth. The results also indicated that the PLS model would provide reasonable estimates of the amount of habitat providing a minimum suitable depth of 30 cm for young-of-the-year Colorado pikeminnow, even though absolute depth estimates may be uncertain for backwater areas deeper than approximately 40 cm. The study also provided insights regarding the amount and the selection of calibration and validation (cal-val) data needed for improving the accuracy of depth prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Coupling Remote Sensing and Sonar Measurements to Estimate Availability of Suitable Backwater Nursery Habitat for Colorado Pikeminnow

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multiple Indicators of Extreme Changes in Snow-Dominated Streamflow Regimes, Yakima River Basin Region, USA

Snow plays a major role in the hydrological cycle. Variations in snow duration and timing can have a negative impact on water resources. Excluding predicted changes in snowmelt rates and amounts could result in deleterious infrastructure, military mission, and asset impacts at military bases across the US. A change in snowpack can also lead to water shortages, which in turn can affect the availability of irrigation water. We performed trend analyses of air temperature, snow water equivalent (SWE) at 22 SNOTEL stations, and streamflow extremes for selected rivers in the snow-dependent and heavily irrigated Yakima River Basin (YRB) located in the Pacific Northwest US. There was a clear trend of increasing air temperature in this study area over a 30 year period (water years 1991–2020). All stations indicated an increase in average air temperatures for December (0.97 °C/decade) and January (1.12 °C/decade). There was also an upward trend at most stations in February (0.28 °C/decade). In December–February, the average air temperatures were 0.82 °C/decade. From these trends, we estimate that, by 2060, the average air temperatures for December–February at most (82%) stations will be above freezing. Furthermore, analysis of SWE from selected SNOTEL stations indicated a decreasing trend in historical SWE, and a shift to an earlier peak SWE was also assumed to be occurring due of the shorter snow duration. Decreasing trends in snow duration, rain-on-snow, and snowmelt runoff also resulted from snow modeling simulations of the YRB and the nearby area. We also observed a shift in the timing of snowmelt-driven peak streamflow, as well as a statistically significant increase in winter maximum streamflow and decrease in summer maximum and minimum streamflow trends by 2099. From the streamflow trends and complementary GEV analysis, we show that the YRB basin is a system in transition with earlier peak flows, lower snow-driven maximum streamflow, and higher rainfall-driven summer streamflow. This study highlights the importance of looking at changes in snow across multiple indicators to develop future infrastructure and planning tools to better adapt and mitigate changes in extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling

Recent advances in differentiable modeling, a genre of physics-informed machine learning that trains neural networks (NNs) together with process-based equations, have shown promise in enhancing hydrological models' accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge-discovery potential. Current differentiable models are efficient for NN-based parameter regionalization, but the simple explicit numerical schemes paired with sequential calculations (operator splitting) can incur numerical errors whose impacts on models' representation power and learned parameters are not clear. Implicit schemes, however, cannot rely on automatic differentiation to calculate gradients due to potential issues of gradient vanishing and memory demand. Here we propose a “discretize-then-optimize” adjoint method to enable differentiable implicit numerical schemes for the first time for large-scale hydrological modeling. The adjoint model demonstrates comprehensively improved performance, with Kling–Gupta efficiency coefficients, peak-flow and low-flow metrics, and evapotranspiration that moderately surpass the already-competitive explicit model. Therefore, the previous sequential-calculation approach had a detrimental impact on the model's ability to represent hydrological dynamics. Furthermore, with a structural update that describes capillary rise, the adjoint model can better describe baseflow in arid regions and also produce low flows that outperform even pure machine learning methods such as long short-term memory networks. The adjoint model rectified some parameter distortions but did not alter spatial parameter distributions, demonstrating the robustness of regionalized parameterization. Despite higher computational expenses and modest improvements, the adjoint model's success removes the barrier for complex implicit schemes to enrich differentiable modeling in hydrology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temporal persistence of postfire flood hazards under present and future climate conditions in southern Arizona, USA

Changes to soil hydraulic properties that reduce infiltration capacity following fire can increase flash flood risks. These risks are exacerbated by rainfall intensification associated with a warming climate. However, the potential effects of climate-change-driven rainfall intensification on postfire floods remain largely unexplored. Using rainfall and runoff observations from a 49.4 km 2 watershed in southern Arizona, USA, and a hydrologic model (KINEROS2), we examined the temporal evolution following a historic fire of three crucial hydrologic parameters: soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (K sp ), net capillary drive (G p ), and hydraulic roughness (n c ). We explored how the effect of fire on these parameters may influence peak flow under future climate scenarios derived from CMIP6, specifically the medium emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Results demonstrate an increase in K sp from 11 mm h −1 in the first postfire year to 60 mm h −1 in postfire year 3. G p similarly increased from 19 mm in the first postfire year to 30 mm in the third, while nc was relatively constant. The highest simulated Q p occurred in the first postfire year. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the likelihood of a 100-year flood is projected to be twice as large by the middle of the century relative to its historical magnitude. Simulations further indicate that the maximum expected discharge associated with a postfire flood, as derived from historical data, could be triggered by a 10-year rainstorm under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by the late century. Simulations also demonstrate that rainfall intensification will lead to greater persistence of elevated flood hazards following fire by the late century under both the SSP2-4.5 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1973

Assessment of flood damage in Arizona by means of ERTS-1 imagery

ERTS-1 MSS images clearly show two important effects of a large flood in southeastern Arizona - the extent of inundation and the areas affected by servere sediment deposition and erosion - although the images were made a week and a half after the flood. On October 20 and 21, 1972, the upper Gila River had its third-largest flood on record. Peak flows attained about 42,000 and 82,000 cubic feet a second at Duncan and Safford, Arizona, respectively. The first ERTS-1 images after the flood were made on November 1 and 2. The inundated area is best displayed on the infrared bands, particularly on band 7, where it appears as a belt along the river that is distinctly darker than adjoining parts of the flood plain. This dark belt does not appear on ERTS images that predate the flood. Presumably the low infrared reflectance of this belt is caused by still-moist soil and by flood-stressed vegetation. Inundation limits mapped from ERTS imagery agree well with those obtained by aerial photography during the flood and by ground surveys.

Morrison, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Erosion by catastrophic floods on Mars and Earth

The morphologic features of the large Martian channels are shown to be strikingly similar to those of the Channeled Scabland of eastern Washington, produced by the catastrophic breakout floods of Pleistocene Lake Missoula. If the analogy is correct, floods involving water discharges of millions of cubic meters per second and peak flow velocities of tens of meters per second, but perhaps lasting no more than a few days, may have occurred on Mars.

Baker, V. R.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Utilization of LANDSAT monitoring capabilities for snowcover depletion analysis

LANDSAT images for three snowmelt seasons were utilized to map and analyze snowcover depletion on a small river basin in southeastern Wyoming. Results indicate that snowcover-runoff curves established from repetitive LANDSAT coverage may be used in conjunction with streamflow data to provide low-cost seasonal runoff forecasts having a high degree of accuracy. Additionally, detectable variations within a snowpack might provide temporal estimates of peak flows.

Thompson, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The relation of flux transfer events to magnetic reconnection

Preliminary results of a search for heat-transfer signatures in electron data on 31 flux-transfer events (FTEs) are reported. Strong acceleration or deceleration, large parallel pressure anisotropies, and temperatures and densities between those of the magnetosphere and the magnetosheath are commonly observed within the surface of the flux-transfer interval defined by the heat-flow peaks, with some evidence of field-aligned ionospheric electrons. A theoretical model is developed to explain some of the observations and illustrated with diagrams. Dynamical tests on a large well-resolved FTE show that the data are consistent with a one-sided passage of the probe into and out of a rotational shear layer.

Scudder, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Development of a Coupled Hydrological/Sediment Yield Model for a Watershed at Regional Level

Development of a hydrologic model for the study of environmental conservation requires a comprehensive understanding of individual-storm affecting hydrologic and sedimentologic processes. The hydrologic models that we are currently coupling are the Simulator for Hydrology and Energy Exchange at the Land Surface (SHEELS) and the Distributed Runoff Model (DRUM). SHEELS runs continuously to estimate surface energy fluxes and sub-surface soil water fluxes, while DRUM operates during and following precipitation events to predict surface runoff and peak flow through channel routing. The lateral re-distribution of surface water determined by DRUM is passed to SHEELS, which then adjusts soil water contents throughout the profile. The model SHEELS is well documented in Smith et al. (1993) and Laymen and Crosson (1995). The model DRUM is well documented in Vieux et al. (1990) and Vieux and Gauer (1994). The coupled hydrologic model, SHEELS/DRUM, does not simulate sedimentologic processes. The simulation of the sedimentologic process is important for environmental conservation planning and management. Therefore, we attempted to develop a conceptual frame work for coupling a sediment yield model with SHEELS/DRUM to estimate individual-storm sediment yield from a watershed at a regional level. The sediment yield model that will be used for this study is the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with some modifications to enable the model to predict individual-storm sediment yield. The predicted sediment yield does not include wind erosion and erosion caused by irrigation and snow melt. Units used for this study are those given by Foster et al. (1981) for SI units.

Rajbhandaril, Narayan↗

NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of cardiovascular function during the early hours of bed rest and space flight

This paper reviews the cardiovascular responses of six healthy male subjects to 6 hours in a 5 degrees head-down bed rest model of weightlessness, and compares these responses to those obtained when subjects were positioned in head-up tilts of 10 degrees, 20 degrees, and 42 degrees, simulating 1/6, 1/3, and 2/3 G, respectively. Thoracic fluid index, cardiac output, stroke volume, and peak flow were measured using impedance cardiography. Cardiac dimensions and volumes were determined from two-dimensional guided M-mode echocardiograms in the left lateral decubitus position at 0, 2, 4, and 6 hours. Cardiovascular response to a stand test were compared before and after bed rest. The impedance values were related to tilt angle for the first 2 hours of tilt; however, after 3 hours, at all four angles, values began to converge, indicating that cardiovascular homeostatic mechanisms seek a common adapted state, regardless of effective gravity level (tilt angle) up to 2/3 G. Echocardiography revealed that left ventricular end-diastolic and end-systolic volume, stroke volume, ejection fraction, heart rate, and cardiac output had returned to control values by hour 6 for all tilt angles. The lack of a significant immediate change in left ventricular end-diastolic volume, despite decrements in stroke volume (P < .05) and heart rate (not significant), indicates that multiple factors may play a role in the adaptation to simulated hypogravity. The echocardiography data indicated that no angle of tilt, whether head-down or head-up for 4 to 6 hours, mimicked exactly the changes in cardiovascular function recorded after 4 to 6 hours of space flight. Changes in left ventricular end-diastolic volume during space flight and tilt may be similar, but follow a different time course. Nevertheless, head-down tilt at 5 degrees for 6 hours mimics some (stroke volume, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, mean arterial blood pressure, and total resistance), but not all, of the changes occurring in an equivalent time of space flight. The magnitude of the change in the mean heart rate response to standing was greater after six hours of tilt at -5 degrees or 10 degrees. Thus, results from the stand test after 6 hours of bed rest at -5 degrees and 10 degrees, but not at 20 degrees or 42 degrees, are similar to those obtained after space flight.

Space Flight↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Intracranial Effects of Artificial Gravity: A 3T MRI Study

INTRODUCTION Spaceflight associated neuro-ocular syndrome (SANS) is characterized by the development of optic disc edema, posterior globe flattening, choroidal/retinal folds and hyperopic refractive errors1. SANS is hypothesized to be a result of headward fluid shifts that invariably occurs in the microgravity environment. As a countermeasure, artificial gravity (AG) through centrifugation has been proposed to reduce this headward fluid shift, however there is no current proof of benefit. The goal of this study was to determine if the application of AG can prevent or reduce known changes in brain volumetry, internal carotid artery (ICA) stroke volume and cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) flow velocity that occurs during simulated chronic headward fluid shift using head down tilt bed rest (HDTBR) methodology2 as an indicator of countermeasure efficacy. METHODS Healthy volunteers were recruited for an IRB approved HDTBR study performed at the German Aerospace Center in Cologne, Germany. Strict six-degree HDTBR was used as a spaceflight analog to induce a continuous headward fluid shift. HDTBR was carried out for 60 days for all subjects. Short-arm centrifugation was utilized to generate AG equating to ~0.3g of acceleration at the level of the eye. The subjects were divided equally into three groups: NoAG (control; n=8), daily intermittent AG (6 x 5 min iAG; n=8), and daily continuous 30 min (cAG; n=8). All studies were performed on a single dedicated 3T MRI Scanner. Pulse-gated MRI phase-contrast flow imaging was used to quantify ICA stroke volume and peak-to-peak CSF flow velocity in the mid cerebral aqueduct. 3D-SPGR was acquired for volumetric segmentation of the brain and CSF spaces. MRI acquisitions were obtained at baseline (BDC), 14 days into HDTBR (HDTBR14), 52 days into HDTBR (HDTBR52) and 3-5 days after HDTBR (recovery, R+3/5).The data were analyzed by the mixed model, which included intervention and time (BDC, HDTBR 14, HDTBR 52, R+3/5) as the fixed effects and included subject as the random effect.RESULTS24 healthy subject volunteers (16 men, 8 women, mean age = 33 years ± 9 [standard deviation] and mean BMI = 24.3 kg/m2 ± 2.0) successfully completed all phases of the study. Strict six-degree HDTBR was characterized by progressive and statistically significant (p<.01) increases in mean combined brain and CSF volumes and mean aqueductal CSF peak-to-peak flow velocity, as well as statistically significant (p<.01) progressive decrease in mean ICA stroke volume from baseline to 52 days post intervention (Figs. 1-3). Compared to baseline, only combined brain and CSF volumes did not return to baseline values in the recovery period (p=NS). Neither iAG nor cAG exerted any significant effects on the measured MRI brain parameters as compared to HDTBR alone (p=NS). CONCLUSION Our results indicate that HDTBR at 6-degrees was effective in producing alterations in ICA stroke volume, aqueductal CSF flow velocity, and combined brain and CSF volumetric change that is associated with chronic headward fluid shift. Short duration, 30-min daily exposure to either iAG or cAG appears to be insufficient in preventing or reducing the effects of chronic HDTBR and thus may not be a suitable countermeasure as currently deployed. AG protocol modifications, including increased duration and magnitude of exposure, should be considered for future research.

L A Kramer↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Surveillance for Jugular Venous Thrombosis in Long-Duration Space Flight: Findings From Twenty-Eight U.S. Astronauts

BACKGROUND: Given the high incidence of internal jugular vein (IJV) flow anomalies aboard the International Space Station and a case of thrombosis, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) instituted an occupational surveillance program to evaluate astronauts for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Current findings of the program are presented. METHODS: NASA astronauts undergo pre- and in-flight VTE surveillance examinations using a standardized vascular ultrasound protocol, which includes evaluation for bilateral IJV compressibility, filling, flow, and spontaneous echo contrast (SEC). RESULTS: Twenty-eight NASA astronauts had terrestrial baseline examinations and at least one in-flight imaging session. The reduction of in-flight peak IJV flow speeds was significant and more pronounced on the left. Comparing the first in-flight measurement to the terrestrial baseline, peak flow speeds were reduced from 90.1±41.9 cm/s (average ±SD) to 62.1±31.6 cm/s on the right and from 76.9±41.8 cm/s to 26.8±18.2 cm/s on the left. Seven astronauts showed stagnant or retrograde flow in the left IJV. Fourteen developed appreciable SEC in the left IJV (7 greater than mild); none developed significant right-sided SEC. All IJVs were fully compressible and free from thrombi. DISCUSSION: Bilateral IJV flow speed reduction is observed in microgravity, possibly due to the multitude of available flow redistribution paths for cranial drainage. In a subset of astronauts, significant flow anomalies develop that may facilitate thrombus formation through changes in blood viscosity and speed, especially if combined with other thrombogenic factors. These findings warrant attention to the interplay between individual vascular configurations and the dynamic properties of blood as a non-Newtonian fluid in the reduced-shear flow environment of microgravity.

Ashot Sargsyan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Parsing Weather Variability and Wildfire Effects on the Post-Fire Changes in Daily Stream Flows: A Quantile-Based Statistical Approach and Its Application

Determining wildland fire impacts on streamflow can be problematic as the hydrology in burned watersheds is influenced by post-fire weather conditions. Here, this study presents a quantile-based analytical framework for assessing fire impacts on low and peak daily flow magnitudes, while accounting for post-fire weather influences. This framework entails (a) the bootstrap method to compute the relative change in the post-fire annual flow and weather statistics, (b) double mass analysis to detect if post-fire baseflow and quick-flow yield ratios are significantly altered, and (c) a quantile regression method to parse fire effects on flow at a specific quantile. We illustrate the applicability of this analytical framework using 44 western US streams with at least 5% of their watershed area burned. Results indicate that large, high-severity burns in upland watersheds can raise the streamflow magnitude at the 0. 05 th and 0. 95 th quantiles for at least the five post-fire years. Quantile regression results show that the median fire-related increase in flow for the five post-fire years can be up to 5,000% (Standard Error; S.E. < 2%) at the 0. 05 th E quantile and 161% (S.E. < 10%) at the 0. 95 th quantile. The fire-related increase in flow was often pronounced at the 0. 05 th quantile for streams in the Pacific Northwest and California regions. The difference in fire effects on flow (at both quantiles) across streams was related to post-fire weather, pyrology, physiography, and land cover. The proposed analytical framework can be useful for detecting and quantifying fire effects on the low and peak stream flows in burned watersheds without overlapping disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Subsurface Supergranular Vertical Flows as Measured Using Large Distance Separations in Time-Distance Helioseismology

As large-distance rays (say, 10-24 deg) approach the solar surface approximately vertically, travel times measured from surface pairs for these large separations are mostly sensitive to vertical flows, at least for shallow flows within a few Mm of the solar surface. All previous analyses of supergranulation have used smaller separations and have been hampered by the difficulty of separating the horizontal and vertical flow components. We find that the large separation travel times associated with upergranulation cannot be studied using the standard phase-speed filters of time-distance helioseismology. These filters, whose use is based upon a refractive model of the perturbations,reduce the resultant travel time signal by at least an order of magnitude at some distances. More effective filters are derived. Modeling suggests that the center-annulus travel time difference in the separation range 10-24 deg is insensitive to the horizontally diverging flow from the centers of the supergranules and should lead to a constant signal from the vertical flow. Our measurement of this quantity for the average supergranule, 5.1 s, is constant over the distance range. This magnitude of signal cannot be caused by the level of upflow at cell centers seen at the photosphere of 10 m/s extended in depth. It requires the vertical flow to increase with depth. A simple Gaussian model of the increase with depth implies a peak upward flow of 240 m/s at a depth of 2.3 Mm and a peak horizontal flow of 700 m/s at a depth of 1.6 Mm.

Duvall, T. L., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Subsurface Supergranular Vertical Flows as Measured Using Large Distance Separations in Time-Distance Helioseismology

As large-distance rays (say, 10 - 24deg) approach the solar surface approximately vertically, travel times measured from surface pairs for these large separations are mostly sensitive to vertical flows, at least for shallow flows within a few Mm of the solar surface. All previous analyses of supergranulation have used smaller separations and have been hampered by the difficulty of separating the horizontal and vertical flow components. We find that the large-separation travel times associated with supergranulation cannot be studied using the standard phase-speed filters of time-distance helioseismology. These filters, whose use is based upon a refractive model of the perturbations, reduce the resultant travel time signal by at least an order of magnitude at some distances. More effective filters are derived. Modeling suggests that the center-annulus travel-time difference [outward-going time minus inward-going time] in the separation range delta= 10 - 24deg is insensitive to the horizontally diverging flow from the centers of the supergranules and should lead to a constant signal from the vertical flow. Our measurement of this quantity, 5.1+/-0.1 seconds, is constant over the distance range. This magnitude of the signal cannot be caused by the level of upflow at cell centers seen at the photosphere of 10 ms(exp−1) extended in depth. It requires the vertical flow to increase with depth. A simple Gaussian model of the increase with depth implies a peak upward flow of 240 ms(exp−1) at a depth of 2.3 Mm and a peak horizontal flow of 700 ms(exp−1) at a depth of 1.6 Mm.

convection↗

DOE OSTI2023

The directional unit hydrograph model: Connecting streamflow response to storm dynamics

Not Available

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗