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NASA NTRS1991

Exact hierarchical clustering in one dimension

The present adhesion model-based one-dimensional simulations of gravitational clustering have yielded bound-object catalogs applicable in tests of analytical approaches to cosmological structure formation. Attention is given to Press-Schechter (1974) type functions, as well as to their density peak-theory modifications and the two-point correlation function estimated from peak theory. The extent to which individual collapsed-object locations can be predicted by linear theory is significant only for objects of near-characteristic nonlinear mass.

Williams, B. G.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Inferring the spatial and energy distribution of gamma-ray burst sources. 1: Methodology

We describe Bayesian methods for analyzing the distribution of gamma-ray burst peak photon fluxes and directions. These methods fit the differential distribution, and have the following advantages over rival methods: (1) they do not destroy information by binning or averaging the data (as do, say, chi squared, the averaged value of V/V(sub max), and angular moment analyses); (2) they straightforwardly handle uncertainties in the measured quantities; (3) they analyze the strength and direction information jointly; (4) they use information available about nondetections; and (5) they automatically identify and account for biases and selection effects given a precise description of the experiment. In these methods, the most important information needed about the instrument threshold is not its value at the times of burst triggers, as is used in the average value of V/V(sub max) analyses, but rather the value of the threshold at times when no trigger occurred. We show that this information can be summarized as an average detection efficiency that is similar to the product of the exposure and efficiency reported in the First Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) Burst (1B) Catalog, but significantly different from it at low fluxes. We also quantify an important bias that results from estimating the peak flux by scanning the burst to find the peak number of counts in a window of specified duration, as was done for the 1B Catalog. When the duration of the peak of the light curve is longer than the window duration, a simple flux estimate based on the peak counts significantly overestimates the peak flux in a nonlinear fashion that distorts the shape of the log(N)-log(P) distribution. This distortion also corrupts analyses of the V/V(sub max) distribution that use ratios of counts above background to estimate V/V(sub max). The Bayesian calculation specifies how to account for this bias. Implementation of the Bayesian approach requires some changes in the way burst data are reported that we describe in detail. Subsequent papers will report analyses of the 1B Catalog data using the methods described here.

Loredo, Thomas J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Aggregate residential demand flexibility behavior: A novel assessment framework

Residential demand flexibility (DF) could save the U.S. electric grid up to 10 GW of peak demand while supporting increased amounts of renewable generation. However, less than 40% of the estimated DF peak reduction capacity is currently realized, and less than 8% of American households are enrolled. These low participation rates are combined with high rates of "overriding" a DF event and eventual opt-outs among enrolled customers. There is still not a comprehensive understanding of the drivers of DF participation and occupant interaction with DF program signals. We, therefore, present a novel survey processing framework to assess occupant DF-relevant behavior from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS). Using the framework, we summarize both the extensive and intensive behavior of more than 200,000 ATUS respondents (2003-2018 data) and provide insights on the DF-relevant behavior of residential occupants, which is generally overlooked in the literature. Here we use the framework to identify the activity priorities of residential occupants in the United States during different DF-relevant periods (critical peak, peak, and off-peak). These preferred activities capture overlooked routine behaviors that could be barriers to DF participation, if ignored, and might explain the high levels of overrides often exhibited by participants of demand response.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗

NASA NTRS1972

Peak axial-velocity decay with multi-element rectangular and triangular nozzles

The aircraft noise created by the impingement of engine exhaust jet of STOL aircraft with externally blown flaps is discussed. It was determined that the jet-flap interaction noise can be lowered by reducing the impinging velocity of the jet. The reduction must occur at a specific distance from the flap to be effective. The peak axial-velocity decay obtained with rectangular and triangular single element mixer nozzles is presented. Equations are developed for estimating the peak axial velocity decay curves for a wide range of nozzle configurations.

Groesbeck, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Remote sensing of the ionospheric F layer by use of O I 6300-A and O I 1356-A observations

The possibility of using airglow techniques for estimating the electron density and height of the F layer is studied on the basis of a simple relationship between the height of the F2 peak and the column emission rates of the O I 6300 A and O I 1356 A lines. The feasibility of this approach is confirmed by a numerical calculation of F2 peak heights and electron densities from simultaneous measurements of O I 6300 A and O I 1356 A obtained with earth-facing photometers carried by the Ogo 4 satellite. Good agreement is established with the F2 peak heights estimates from top-side and bottom-side ionospheric sounding.

Chandra, S.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Interchangeable Use of GNSS and Seismic Data for Rapid Earthquake Characterization: 2021 Chignik Earthquake, Alaska

Earthquake magnitude estimation using peak ground velocities (PGV) derived from 13 Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data has shown promise for rapid 14 characterization of damaging earthquakes. Here we examine the feasibility of using 15 GNSS-derived velocity waveforms as interchangeable data for ground motion estimation 16 and other products that typically rely on strong-motion seismic records. Our study 17 compares PGVs derived from high-rate GNSS to those computed from high-rate seismic 18 records (strong-motion and velocity), at co- and closely-located stations. The recent 2021 Manuscript Click here to access/download;Manuscript;Manuscript_Final.docx 2 19 Mw 8.2 Chignik earthquake in Alaska that was recorded on co-located GNSS and strong20 motion sensors provides the perfect opportunity to compare the two data streams and 21 their application in rapid response. The Chignik velocity records appear almost identical 22 at co-located GNSS and strong-motion stations when observed at frequencies < 0.25 Hz. 23 GNSS and strong-motion derived velocity data are further employed to generate rapid 24 estimates of PGV-derived moment magnitudes for the earthquake. The moment 25 magnitude estimates from GNSS and joint GNSS/seismic data are within ~ ±0.4 26 magnitude units (Fang et al., 2020) of the final magnitude (Mw 8.2). ShakeMaps 27 generated for the 2021 Chignik earthquake using GNSS and seismic PGVs show notable 28 agreement between them, and show negligible shifts in PGV contours when co-/closely 29 located GNSS and seismic stations are substituted for one another. Therefore, we posit 30 that GNSS is a powerful alternative or addition to seismic data and vice versa.

Earthquake rapid response↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate change-resilient snowpack estimation in the Western United States

Abstract In the 21st century, warmer temperatures and changing atmospheric circulation will likely produce unprecedented changes in Western United States snowfall 1–3 , with impacts on the timing, amount, and spatial patterns of snowpack 4–7 . The ~900 snow pillow stations are indispensable to water resource management by measuring snow-water equivalent (SWE) 8,9 in strategic but fixed locations 10,11 . However, this network may not be impacted by climate change in the same way as the surrounding area 12 and thus fail to accurately represent unmeasured locations; climate change thereby threatens our ability to measure the effects of climate change on snow. In this work, we show that maintaining the current peak SWE estimation skill is nonetheless possible. We find that explicitly including spatial correlations—either from gridded observations or learned by the model—improves skill at predicting distributed snowpack from sparse observations by 184%. Existing artificial intelligence methods can be useful tools to harness the many available sources of snowpack information to estimate snowpack in a nonstationary climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

The peak electromagnetic power radiated by lightning return strokes

Estimates of the peak electromagnetic (EM) power radiated by return strokes have been made by integrating the Poynting vector of measured fields over an imaginary hemispherical surface that is centered on the lightning source, assuming that ground losses are negligible. Values of the peak EM power from first and subsequent strokes have means and standard deviations of 2 + or - 2 x 10 to the 10th and 3 + or - 4 x 10 to the 9th W, respectively. The average EM power that is radiated by subsequent strokes, at the time of the field peak, is about 2 orders of magnitude larger than the optical power that is radiated by these strokes in the wavelength interval from 0.4 to 1.1 micron; hence an upper limit to the radiative efficiency of a subsequent stroke is of the order of 1 percent or less at this time.

Krider, E. P.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Elucidating microstructural evolution and hardness variation across friction self-piercing riveted Al-7055 using synchrotron X-ray scattering and advanced microscopy techniques

Friction self-piercing riveting (FSPR) is a unique hybrid joining technique that combines the advantages of mechanical interlocking, frictional heat, and solid-state joining (if metallurgically compatible) to produce crack free joints in high strength and/or low-ductility alloys at room temperature. Here, in the current study, Al-7055 sheets were joined using FSPR for lightweight automotive applications and significant microhardness variations were observed across the joint cross-section. A detailed microstructural characterization at multiple length scales was carried out using advanced electron microscopy and X-ray scattering techniques to provide a fundamental understanding of the process-structure-property relationships. The relative contributions of microstructural characteristics at various length scales (i.e., grain size, dislocation density, solute concentration, precipitate nature) to strengthening were estimated using existent formulations (i.e., Hall-Petch, Taylor, precipitate bypass/shear equations) and correlated to the observed microhardness values across different regions. Small-angle X-ray scattering and scanning transmission electron microscopy revealed significant changes in the size and volume fraction of precipitate species, i.e., GP-I Zones, η′, and Mg/Zn solute co-clusters, depending on the process region. It was observed that the dissolution of the small η′/GP-I zones (T ∼ 150–200 °C) in the heat-affected zone were the key reason for the hardness drop. Further, it was shown that solid-solution, dislocation, grain size and solute co-cluster strengthening played a key role in the thermo-mechanically affected zone and grain-refined zone (GRZ). Finally, these observations were leveraged along with the Zener-Holloman relationship and grain size in the GRZ to estimate the peak joining temperature of the GRZ (∼ 350 °C) near the steel rivet.

aluminum 7xxx alloy↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating SHmax azimuth with P sources and vertical geophones: Use P-P reflection amplitudes or use SV-P reflection times?

We compared two methods for extracting the azimuth of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) from 3D land-based seismic data generated by a P source and recorded with vertical geophones. In the first method, we used the direct-SV mode that is produced by all land-based P sources. P sources generate SV illumination that radiates in all azimuth directions from a source station and creates SV-P reflections that are recorded by vertical geophones. Unless stratigraphy has steep dip, SV-P raypaths recorded by vertical geophones are the reverse of P-SV raypaths recorded by horizontal geophones. Thus, SV-P data provide the same S-wave sensitivity to stress fields as popular P-SV data do. In the second method, we retrieved P-P reflections and then performed an amplitude-variation-with-azimuth (AVA) analysis of the amplitude-gradient behavior of P-P reflection wavelets. We did this analysis in narrow azimuth corridors to determine the gradient of reflection-wavelet amplitudes as a function of azimuth. This P-P AVA amplitude-gradient method has been of great interest in the reflection seismology community since it was introduced in the late 1990s. Each of these methods, AVA analysis of the gradient of P-P reflection amplitudes and azimuth-dependent arrival times of SV-P reflections, can be used to determine the azimuth of SHmax stress. We compare the results of the two methods with ground truth measurements of SHmax azimuth at a CO 2 sequestration site in the Michigan Basin. SHmax azimuths were determined from P-P and SV-P data at three major boundaries at depths of approximately 3500 ft (1067 m), 5500 ft (1676 m), and 7500 ft (2286 m). Two estimates of SHmax azimuth (one using SV-P data and one using P-P data) were made at each stacking bin inside a 24 mi 2 (62 km 2 ) image space. The result was approximately 98,000 estimates of SHmax azimuth across each of these three boundaries for each of these two prediction strategies. Histogram displays of PP AVA gradient estimates had peaks at correct azimuths of SHmax at all three depths, but the spread of the distributions widened with depth and split into two peaks at the deepest boundary. In contrast, each histogram of SHmax azimuth predicted by azimuth-dependent SV-P traveltimes had a single, definitive peak that was positioned at the correct SHmax azimuth at all three boundary depths.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Comparative Study on Representativeness and Stochastic Efficacy of Miniature Tensile Specimen Testing

Here, in this article, a miniature dog bone tensile coupon design was tested against the existing ASTM standard specimen design. Specimens were prepared from commercially sourced austenitic stainless steel 304 alloy, and a defect-ridden additively manufactured 304L alloy was studied. By utilizing a tensile specimen design that is 1/230th volume of the smallest ASTM E8-04(2016), Standard Test Methods for Tension Testing of Metallic Materials, dog bone specimen, coupled to a digital image correlation (DIC) setup, case studies were performed to compare tensile property measurements and strain field evolution. Whereas yield strength measurements were observed to be similar, post-yield, the ultimate strength measurements and ductility measurements from the miniature specimens were observed to be higher than the ASTM specimen design. Although the strength measurements were comparable, the strain evolution was found to differ in the miniature specimens. Studies to assess effects of varying thickness and defect population were also pursued on the miniature tensile specimen. From the DIC strain field estimations, the peak local strain values at ultimate tensile strength were observed to be increasing with reducing specimen thickness. Testing of defect ridden stainless steel revealed the sensitivity to failure through strain localization and the influence of defect size was captured in the strength measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1975

Utilization of LANDSAT monitoring capabilities for snowcover depletion analysis

LANDSAT images for three snowmelt seasons were utilized to map and analyze snowcover depletion on a small river basin in southeastern Wyoming. Results indicate that snowcover-runoff curves established from repetitive LANDSAT coverage may be used in conjunction with streamflow data to provide low-cost seasonal runoff forecasts having a high degree of accuracy. Additionally, detectable variations within a snowpack might provide temporal estimates of peak flows.

Thompson, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Heat-transfer distributions on a 0.013-scale shuttle solid rocket booster at Mach 3.70 and angles of attack from 0 deg to 180 deg

An experimental investigation was conducted in the Langley Unitary Plan wind tunnel to estimate the peak aerodynamic heating on the space shuttle solid rocket booster during the descent phase of its flight. Heat transfer measurements were obtained using 0.013 scale models instrumented with thermocouples at a Mach number of 3.70, Reynolds number per meter of 11.48 million, and angles of attack from 0 to 180 deg. At angles of attack of 0 and 180 deg, heat transfer measurements on the cylindrical section of the model between the conical nose and ring interaction region were in good agreement with flat plate strip theory for laminar and turbulent flow. At angles of attack up to 30 deg, measurements on this section of the model were in good agreement with laminar swept-cylinder theory, whereas at angles of attack from 120 to 180 deg, the measurements were in good agreement with turbulent swept-cylinder theory. The good agreement with turbulent theory indicated that large flow disturbances created by the nozzle and afterbody flare at these large angles of attack influenced the downstream heating primarily by promoting boundary layer transition. Measurements obtained at 90 deg angle of attack were indicative of laminar flow.

Lamb, M.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Thunderstorm vertical velocities and mass flux estimated from satellite data

Infrared geosynchronous satellite data with an interval of five minutes between images are used to estimate thunderstorm top ascent rates on two case study days. A mean vertical velocity of 3.5/ms for 19 clouds is calculated at a height of 8.7 km. This upward motion is representative of an area of approximately 10km on a side. Thunderstorm mass flux of approximately 2x10 to the 11th power/gs is calculated, which compares favorably with previous estimates. There is a significant difference in the mean calculated vertical velocity between elements associated with severe weather reports (w bar=4.6/ms) and those with no such reports (2.5/ms). Calculations were made using a velocity profile for an axially symmetric jet to estimate the peak updraft velocity. For the largest observed w value of 7.8/ms the calculation indicates a peak updraft of approximately 50/ms.

Adler, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Thunderstorm vertical velocities estimated from satellite data

Infrared geosynchronous satellite data with an interval of 5 min between images are used to estimate thunderstorm top ascent rates on two case study days. A mean vertical velocity of 3.4 m/sec for 23 clouds is calculated at a height of 8.7 km. This upward motion is representative of an area of approximately 10 km on a side. Thunderstorm mass flux of approximately 2 times 10 to the 8th power kg/sec is calculated, which compares favorably with previous estimates. There is a significant difference in the mean calculated vertical velocity between elements associated with severe weather reports (omega = 4.9 m/sec) and those with no such reports (2.4 m/sec). Calculations were made using a velocity profile for an axially symmetric jet to estimate the peak updraft velocity. For the largest observed omega value of 7.8 m/sec the calculation indicates a peak updraft of approximately 50 m/sec.

Adler, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Elastic body dynamics

Most of the structural dynamics resources allocated to the Space Shuttle are concentrated on the flight events which result in critical structural loads and/or minimum control stability margins. Since these events are primarily sub-orbital, the data base of interest to those involved in orbital experimentation is somewhat limited. A brief discussion of available data is given. Although estimates of peak acceleration levels and the associated frequency spectrum in the payload bay due to thrusting of the various control system thrusters were made, the actual levels and time histories must be based on updated structural math models and a detailed knowledge of the input forcing functions.

Holder, B. W.↗

NASA NTRS1983

On the shock cell structure and noise of supersonic jets

A linear solution modeling the shock cell structure of an axisymmetric supersonic jet operated at off-design conditions is developed by the method of multiple-scales. The model solution takes into account the gradual spatial change of the mean flow in the downstream direction. Turbulence in the mixing layer of the jet has the tendency of smoothing out the sharp velocity and density gradients induced by the shocks. To simulate this effect, eddy viscosity terms are incorporated in the model. It is known that the interaction between the quasi-periodic shock cells and the downstream propagating large turbulence structures in the mixing layer of the jet is responsible for the generation of broadband shock associated noise. Experimentally, the dominant part of this noise has been found to originate from the part of the jet near the end of the potential core. Calculated shock cell spacing at the end of the jet core according to the present model is used to estimate the peak frequencies of the shock associated noise for a range of observation angles. Very favorable agreement with experimental measurements is found.

Tam, C. K. W.↗