Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “pattern scaling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Long-term leaf C:N ratio change under elevated CO 2 and nitrogen deposition in China: Evidence from observations and process-based modeling

Climate change, elevating atmosphere CO 2 (eCO 2 ) and increased nitrogen deposition (iNDEP) are altering the biogeochemical interactions between plants, microbes and soils, which further modify plant leaf carbon-nitrogen (C:N) stoichiometry and their carbon assimilation capability. Many field experiments have observed large sensitivity of leaf C:N ratio to eCO 2 and iNDEP. However, the large-scale pattern of this sensitivity is still unclear, because eCO 2 and iNDEP drive leaf C:N ratio toward opposite directions, which are further compounded by the complex processes of nitrogen acquisition and plant-and-microbial nitrogen competition. Here, we attempt to map the leaf C:N ratio spatial variation in the past 5 decades in China with a combination of data-driven model and process-based modeling. These two approaches showed consistent results. Over different regions, we found that leaf C:N ratio had significant but uneven changes between 2 time periods (1960-1989 and 1990-2015): a 5% ± 8% increase for temperate grasslands in northern China, a 3% ± 6% increase for boreal grasslands in western China, and by contrast, a 7% ± 6% decrease for temperate forests in southern China, and a 3% ± 5% decrease for boreal forests in northeastern China. Additionally, the structural equation models indicated that the leaf C:N change was sensitive to ΔNDEP, ΔCO 2 and ΔMAT rather than ΔMAP and ecosystem types. In this work, process-based modeling suggested that iNDEP was the main source of soil mineral nitrogen change, dominating leaf C:N ratio change in most areas in China, while eCO 2 led to leaf C:N ratio increase in low iNDEP area. This study also indicates that the long-term leaf C:N ratio acclimation was dominated by climate constraint, especially temperature, but was constrained by soil N availability over decade scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nucleation and Growth of Blue Phase 3D Cubic Structure Under Continuously Changing Curved Boundary Conditions

The blue phase of liquid crystals (BPLCs) with a cubic lattice of disclination lines and 3D nanostructure enables the modulation of photonic bandgap thus casting them in the category of photonic crystals. Its unique nature promises applications in display technologies, electro‐optics, and sensors. To integrate these ordered materials into wearable devices a fundamental understanding of curvature, and spatial confinement is necessary. Although continuous confinement in flat geometries have been studied, confining curvature has shown to induce strong destabilization effects on the cubic structure and formation of topological defects, thereby deteriorating their optical performance. Moreover, limitations in controlling the curvature of droplets further hinder studies of nucleation and growth of BPLCs. Here, to address these challenges, micro‐scale patterned surfaces of concentric cylinders are exploited to systematically control curvatures. The impact of curvature on the confined BPLCs is revealed in terms of phase transition temperature, nucleation and growth, morphology, as well as phase transformation. This research offers valuable insights into the stability, and structural characteristics of BPLCs in adaptive photonic devices, paving the way for future advancements in flexible displays, sensors, and other technologies leveraging liquid crystal (LC) materials.

3D Cubic Structure↗
DOE OSTI2021

The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa

We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Challenges in studying water fluxes within the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum: A tracer-based perspective on pathways to progress

Tracing and quantifying water fluxes in the hydrological cycle is crucial for understanding the current state of ecohydrological systems and their vulnerability to environmental change. Especially the interface between ecosystems and the atmosphere that is strongly mediated by plants is important to meaningfully describe ecohydrological system functioning. Many of the dynamic interactions generated by water fluxes between soil, plant and the atmosphere are not well understood, which is partly due to a lack of interdisciplinary research. This opinion paper reflects the outcome of a discussion among hydrologists, plant ecophysiologists and soil scientists on open questions and new opportunities for collaborative research on the topic "water fluxes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum" especially focusing on environmental and artificial tracers. We emphasize the need for a multi-scale experimental approach, where a hypothesis is tested at multiple spatial scales and under diverse environmental conditions to better describe the small-scale processes (i.e., causes) that lead to large-scale patterns of ecosystem functioning (i.e., consequences). Novel in-situ, high-frequency measurement techniques offer the opportunity to sample data at a high spatial and temporal resolution needed to understand the underlying processes. Here we advocate for a combination of long-term natural abundance measurements and event-based approaches. Multiple environmental and artificial tracers, such as stable isotopes, and a suite of experimental and analytical approaches should be combined to complement information gained by different methods. Virtual experiments using process-based models should be used to inform sampling campaigns and field experiments, e.g., to improve experimental designs and to simulate experimental outcomes. On the other hand, experimental data are a pre-requisite to improve our currently incomplete models. Interdisciplinary collaboration will help to overcome research gaps that overlap across different earth system science fields and help to generate a more holistic view of water fluxes between soil, plant and atmosphere in diverse ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Environmental harshness mediates the relationship between aboveground and belowground communities in Antarctica

Linkages between aboveground and belowground communities are a key but globally under-researched component of responses to environmental change. Given the logistical complications to studying these relationships, much of our knowledge derives from laboratory experiments and localized field studies which have so far yielded inconsistent results. Because environmental factors may alter relationships between above- and belowground communities, there is a need for broad-scale field studies testing these interactions. The Antarctic Peninsula provides an ideal test setting, given the relatively simple communities both above- and belowground. The Peninsula is also experiencing rapid environmental changes, including alterations in species diversity and distribution both above- and belowground. Thus, an improved understanding of the broad-scale consequences of altered environments and vegetation communities for the soil microbiome is of high priority. To determine the nature and strength of the relationship between in situ plant and soil communities across a broad spatial scale and range of environmental conditions, we sampled soil communities at 9 locations (spanning 60–72°S along the Scotia Arc and Antarctic Peninsula) beneath the major aboveground habitats (moss, grass, lichen, algae and bare soil). We measured a comprehensive suite of soil physicochemical properties, microbial (bacterial and fungal) diversity and composition, and invertebrate abundance and community composition to determine the relationships between plant and soil communities. Furthermore, our results suggest that, with increased environmental severity, plant cover types become more important for influencing the physicochemical soil environment, and therefore the soil microbial communities. Although we found site-specific relationships, broad-scale patterns reveal significant differences among bare soils and vegetated soils, particularly soils beneath grass and moss. This suggests that expansion of vegetation communities under current climate warming projections will be accompanied by shifts in the soil microbiome, with important implications for the ecosystem functioning with which they are associated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling With Multiple Plankton Functional Types

Current representations of marine ecosystems in Earth System Models are greatly simplified, neglecting key interactions between dynamic food webs, biogeochemistry, and climate change. We use the Marine Biogeochemistry Library code base within the Community Earth System Model 2.2.2 to create an expanded ecosystem model with eight phytoplankton groups and four zooplankton size classes (MARBL-8P4Z). Incorporating more specific plankton types and size classes has the potential to capture a wider range of possible behaviors of the ecosystem, its complex interactions with biogeochemistry, and its feedback to climate change. It also permits stronger observational constraints, including in situ group-specific biomass and various observational estimates of plankton community composition. MARBL-8P4Z broadly captures observed global-scale patterns in biomass and community composition for both phytoplankton and zooplankton, with a good performance in simulating broad biogeochemistry fields. The model shows comparable spatial patterns and magnitudes to the observed picophytoplankton biomass (Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, picoeukaryotes), and captures the seasonal cycle of mesozooplankton biomass. Picophytoplankton groups and microzooplankton dominate biomass and production in oligotrophic, subtropical regions, while nano-phytoplankton, diatoms and the larger zooplankton groups prevail at higher latitudes and within upwelling zones. The model simulates reasonable energy transfer efficiency through the food web, with tight linkages between the phytoplankton community composition, zooplankton grazing, and carbon export, with the potential to link to fisheries models. Thus, MARBL-8P4Z has the potential to account for key climate-driven ecological shifts in the plankton that will modify ocean biogeochemistry in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Command of three-dimensional solitary waves via photopatterning

Multidimensional solitons are prevalent in numerous research fields. In orientationally ordered soft matter system, three-dimensional director solitons exemplify the localized distortion of molecular orientation. However, their precise manipulation remains challenging due to unpredictable and uncontrolled generation. Here, we utilize preimposed programmable photopatterning in nematics to control the kinetics of director solitons. This enables both unidirectional and bidirectional generation at specific locations and times, confinement within micron-scaled patterns of diverse shapes, and directed propagation along predefined trajectories. A focused dynamical model provides insight into the origins of these solitons and aligns closely with experimental observations, underscoring the pivotal role of anchoring conditions in soliton manipulation. Our findings pave the way for diverse fundamental research avenues and promising applications, including microcargo transportation and optical information processing.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metagenomic clustering links specific metabolic functions to globally relevant ecosystems

ABSTRACT Metagenomic sequencing has advanced our understanding of biogeochemical processes by providing an unprecedented view into the microbial composition of different ecosystems. While the amount of metagenomic data has grown rapidly, simple-to-use methods to analyze and compare across studies have lagged behind. Thus, tools expressing the metabolic traits of a community are needed to broaden the utility of existing data. Gene abundance profiles are a relatively low-dimensional embedding of a metagenome’s functional potential and are, thus, tractable for comparison across many samples. Here, we compare the abundance of KEGG Ortholog Groups (KOs) from 6,539 metagenomes from the Joint Genome Institute’s Integrated Microbial Genomes and Metagenomes (JGI IMG/M) database. We find that samples cluster into terrestrial, aquatic, and anaerobic ecosystems with marker KOs reflecting adaptations to these environments. For instance, functional clusters were differentiated by the metabolism of antibiotics, photosynthesis, methanogenesis, and surprisingly GC content. Using this functional gene approach, we reveal the broad-scale patterns shaping microbial communities and demonstrate the utility of ortholog abundance profiles for representing a rapidly expanding body of metagenomic data. IMPORTANCE Metagenomics, or the sequencing of DNA from complex microbiomes, provides a view into the microbial composition of different environments. Metagenome databases were created to compile sequencing data across studies, but it remains challenging to compare and gain insight from these large data sets. Consequently, there is a need to develop accessible approaches to extract knowledge across metagenomes. The abundance of different orthologs (i.e., genes that perform a similar function across species) provides a simplified representation of a metagenome’s metabolic potential that can easily be compared with others. In this study, we cluster the ortholog abundance profiles of thousands of metagenomes from diverse environments and uncover the traits that distinguish them. This work provides a simple to use framework for functional comparison and advances our understanding of how the environment shapes microbial communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Separating the Influences of Low-Latitude Warming and Sea Ice Loss on Northern Hemisphere Climate Change

Abstract Analyzing a multimodel ensemble of coupled climate model simulations forced with Arctic sea ice loss using a two-parameter pattern-scaling technique to remove the cross-coupling between low- and high-latitude responses, the sensitivity to high-latitude sea ice loss is isolated and contrasted to the sensitivity to low-latitude warming. Despite some differences in experimental design, the Northern Hemisphere near-surface atmospheric sensitivity to sea ice loss is found to be robust across models in the cold season; however, a larger intermodel spread is found at the surface in boreal summer, and in the free tropospheric circulation. In contrast, the sensitivity to low-latitude warming is most robust in the free troposphere and in the warm season, with more intermodel spread in the surface ocean and surface heat flux over the Northern Hemisphere. The robust signals associated with sea ice loss include upward turbulent and longwave heat fluxes where sea ice is lost, warming and freshening of the Arctic Ocean, warming of the eastern North Pacific Ocean relative to the western North Pacific with upward turbulent heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, and salinification of the shallow shelf seas of the Arctic Ocean alongside freshening in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the robust signals associated with low-latitude warming include intensified ocean warming and upward latent heat fluxes near the western boundary currents, freshening of the Pacific Ocean, salinification of the North Atlantic, and downward sensible and longwave fluxes over the ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Relative Importance of Antarctic Sea Ice Loss within the Response to Greenhouse Warming

Abstract The response to Antarctic sea ice loss within a coupled modeling framework is examined in comparison to the response to Arctic sea ice loss and within the context of general greenhouse warming. Sea ice loss responses are found to be linear (particularly in response to Antarctic or global sea ice loss) with respect to the degree of imposed perturbation and additive when perturbations are applied in hemispheres separately and concurrently. Globally, and in the tropical Pacific in particular, Antarctic sea ice loss plays a relatively larger role than Arctic sea ice loss in both the atmosphere and the ocean, within the parameters of our experiments. The pattern of response to Antarctic sea ice loss is also found to more closely resemble that of greenhouse warming, again particularly in the tropics. An extension to multiparameter pattern scaling is developed to include a scaling factor for Antarctic change in addition to those for tropical warming and Arctic sea ice loss. The decomposition is applied to the modeled response to Antarctic sea ice loss to break it down into component partial responses that scale with Antarctic, tropical, and Arctic changes. This reveals the aspects of the response that are directly related to Antarctic change, such as an equatorward intensification of tropical precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, and those that are modified via the induced changes in the tropics and Arctic, such as Northern Hemisphere temperature change. With this, we hope to gain a deeper understanding of the role of each of these changes for the development of physical mechanisms of the response.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating LEO and GEO Observations: Toward Optimal Summertime Satellite Precipitation Retrieval

Abstract Reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for understanding the Earth’s hydrological cycle. Precipitation estimation over land and coastal regions is necessary for addressing the high degree of spatial heterogeneity of water availability and demand, and for resolving the extremes that modulate and amplify hazards such as flooding and landslides. Advancements in computation power along with unique high spatiotemporal and spectral resolution data streams from passive meteorological sensors aboard geosynchronous Earth-orbiting (GEO) and low Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites offer exciting opportunities to retrieve information about surface precipitation phenomena using data-driven machine learning techniques. In this study, the capabilities of U-Net–like architecture are investigated to map instantaneous, summertime surface precipitation intensity at the spatial resolution of 2 km. The calibrated brightness temperature products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) radiometer are combined with multispectral images (visible, near-infrared, and infrared bands) from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the GOES-R satellites as main inputs to the U-Net–like precipitation algorithm. Total precipitable water and 2-m temperature from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model are also used as auxiliary inputs to the model. The results show that the U-Net–like algorithm can capture fine-scale patterns and intensity of surface precipitation at high spatial resolution over stratiform and convective precipitation regimes. The evaluations reveal the potential of extracting relevant, high spatial features over complex surface types such as mountainous regions and coastlines. The algorithm allows users to interpret the inputs’ importance and can serve as a starting point for further exploration of precipitation systems within the field of hydrometeorology.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Performance of Low Salinity Polymer Flood in Enhancing Heavy Oil Recovery on the Alaska North Slope

Combining low-salinity water (LSW) and polymer flooding was proposed to unlock the tremendous heavy oil resources (20–25 billion barrels) on the Alaska North Slope (ANS). The synergy effect of LSW and polymer flooding was demonstrated through coreflooding experiments carried out on representative rock and fluid systems. The results indicate that the high-salinity polymer solution (HSP, 2,300 ppm, salinity=27,500 ppm) requires nearly two thirds more polymer than the low-salinity polymer (LSP, 1,400 ppm, salinity=2,500 ppm) to achieve the same target viscosity of 45 cp measured from viscometer. Additional oil (5–9%) can be recovered from LSW flooding after extensive high-salinity water (HSW) flooding. LSW flooding performed in secondary mode can achieve higher recovery than in tertiary mode. Strikingly, LSP flooding can further improve the oil recovery by ~8% even after extensive HSP flooding with the same viscosity. LSP flooding performed directly after waterflooding can achieve ~10% more incremental oil recovery. The pH increase of the effluent during LSW/LSP flooding was significantly greater than that during HSW/HSP flooding, indicating the occurrence of ion exchange which might contribute to the improved oil recovery. Also, the water breakthrough was delayed in a low-salinity flood compared with a high-salinity flood. The idea of combining LSW and polymer flooding has been put into practice on a pattern-scale field pilot test in the target Milne Point field. Nearly two-year observation has shown impressive success: water cut reduction (70% to below 15%), increasing oil rate, and no polymer breakthrough so far. This work has demonstrated remarkable economical and technical benefits of combination of LSW and polymer flooding in enhancing heavy oil recovery.

Zhao, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging the signature of heterotrophic respiration on atmospheric CO 2 for model benchmarking

Spatial and temporal variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) reflect large-scale net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems. Soil heterotrophic respiration (HR) is one of the component fluxes that drive this net exchange, but, given observational limitations, it is difficult to quantify this flux or to evaluate global-scale model simulations thereof. Here, we show that atmospheric CO 2 can provide a useful constraint on large-scale patterns of soil heterotrophic respiration. We analyze three soil model configurations (CASA-CNP, MIMICS, and CORPSE) that simulate HR fluxes within a biogeochemical test bed that provides each model with identical net primary productivity (NPP) and climate forcings. We subsequently quantify the effects of variation in simulated terrestrial carbon fluxes (NPP and HR from the three soil test-bed models) on atmospheric CO 2 distributions using a three-dimensional atmospheric tracer transport model. Our results show that atmospheric CO 2 observations can be used to identify deficiencies in model simulations of the seasonal cycle and interannual variability in HR relative to NPP. In particular, the two models that explicitly simulated microbial processes (MIMICS and CORPSE) were more variable than observations at interannual timescales and showed a stronger-than-observed temperature sensitivity. Our results prompt future research directions to use atmospheric CO 2 , in combination with additional constraints on terrestrial productivity or soil carbon stocks, for evaluating HR fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Testing the reliability of interpretable neural networks in geoscience using the Madden–Julian oscillation

Abstract. We test the reliability of two neural network interpretation techniques, backward optimization and layerwise relevance propagation, within geoscientific applications by applying them to a commonly studied geophysical phenomenon, the Madden–Julian oscillation. The Madden–Julian oscillation is a multi-scale pattern within the tropical atmosphere that has been extensively studied over the past decades, which makes it an ideal test case to ensure the interpretability methods can recover the current state of knowledge regarding its spatial structure. The neural networks can, indeed, reproduce the current state of knowledge and can also provide new insights into the seasonality of the Madden–Julian oscillation and its relationships with atmospheric state variables. The neural network identifies the phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation twice as accurately as a linear regression approach, which means that nonlinearities used by the neural network are important to the structure of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Interpretations of the neural network show that it accurately captures the spatial structures of the Madden–Julian oscillation, suggest that the nonlinearities of the Madden–Julian oscillation are manifested through the uniqueness of each event, and offer physically meaningful insights into its relationship with atmospheric state variables. We also use the interpretations to identify the seasonality of the Madden–Julian oscillation and find that the conventionally defined extended seasons should be shifted later by 1 month. More generally, this study suggests that neural networks can be reliably interpreted for geoscientific applications and may thereby serve as a dependable method for testing geoscientific hypotheses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Potential Impacts of Assimilating All-sky Satellite Infrared Radiances on Convection-Permitting Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Convection

Geostationary infrared satellite observations are spatially dense [< 1/(20 km)2] and temporally frequent (< 1/hour). These suggest the possibility of using these observations to constrain sub-synoptic features over data sparse regions, such as tropical oceans. In this study, the potential impacts of assimilating water vapor channel brightness temperature (WV-BT) observations from the geostationary Meteorological Satellite 7 (Meteosat-7) on tropical convection analysis and prediction were systematically examined through a series of ensemble data assimilation experiments. WV-BT observations were assimilated hourly into convection-permitting ensembles using Penn State’s ensemble square root filter (EnSRF). Comparisons against independently observed Meteosat-7 window channel brightness temperature (Window-BT) show that the assimilation of WV-BT generally improved the intensities and locations of large-scale cloud patterns at spatial scales larger than 100 km. However, comparisons against independent soundings indicate that the EnSRF analysis produced a much stronger dry bias than the no data assimilation experiment. This strong dry bias is associated with the use of the simulated WV-BT from the prior mean during the EnSRF analysis step. A stochastic variant of the ensemble Kalman filter (NoMeanSF) is proposed. The NoMeanSF algorithm was able to assimilate the WV-BT without causing such a strong dry bias and the quality of the analyses’ horizontal cloud pattern is similar to EnSRF’s analyses. Finally, deterministic forecasts initiated from the NoMeanSF analyses possess better horizontal cloud patterns above 500 km than those of the EnSRF. These results suggest that it might be better to assimilate all-sky WV-BT through the NoMeanSF algorithm than EnSRF algorithm.

Chan, Man-Yau↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Anthropogenic Signal Identified in the Seasonal Cycle of Tropospheric Temperature

Previous work identified an anthropogenic fingerprint pattern in T AC (x, t), the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT), but did not explicitly consider whether fingerprint identification in satellite T AC (x, t) data could have been influenced by real-world multidecadal internal variability (MIV). Here we address this question here using large ensembles (LEs) performed with five climate models. LEs provide many different sequences of internal variability noise superimposed on an underlying forced signal. Despite differences in historical external forcings, climate sensitivity, and MIV properties of the five models, their T AC (x, t) fingerprints are similar and statistically identifiable in 239 of the 240 LE realizations of historical climate change. Comparing simulated and observed variability spectra reveals that consistent fingerprint identification is unlikely to be biased by model underestimates of observed MIV. Even in the presence of large (factor of 3–4) intermodel and inter-realization differences in the amplitude of MIV, the anthropogenic fingerprints of seasonal cycle changes are robustly identifiable in models and satellite data. This is primarily due to the fact that the distinctive, global-scale fingerprint patterns are spatially dissimilar to the smaller-scale patterns of internal T AC (x, t) variability associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The robustness of the seasonal cycle detection and attribution results shown here, taken together with the evidence from idealized aquaplanet simulations, suggest that basic physical processes are dictating a common pattern of forced T AC (x, t) changes in observations and in the five LEs. The key processes involved include GHG-induced expansion of the tropics, lapse-rate changes, land surface drying, and sea ice decrease.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Interactions between Local Short- and Long-Term Spatio-Temporal Mechanisms and Their Impact on California Wildfire Dynamics

California has experienced a surge in wildfires, prompting research into contributing factors, including weather and climate conditions. This study investigates the complex, multiscale interactions between large-scale climate patterns, such as the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and their influence on moisture and temperature fluctuations, and wildfire dynamics in California. The combined impacts of PDO and BSISO on intraseasonal fire weather changes; the interplay between fire weather index (FWI), relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and temperature in assessing wildfire risks; and geographical variations in the relationship between the FWI and climatic factors within California are examined. The study employs a multi-pronged approach, analyzing wildfire frequency and burned areas alongside climate patterns and atmospheric conditions. The findings reveal significant variability in wildfire activity across different climate conditions, with heightened risks during specific BSISO phases, La-Niña, and cool PDO. The influence of BSISO varies depending on its interaction with PDO. Temperature, relative humidity, and VPD show strong predictive significance for wildfire risks, with significant relationships between FWI and temperature in elevated regions (correlation, r > 0.7, p ≤ 0.05) and FWI and relative humidity along the Sierra Nevada Mountains (r ≤ -0.7, p ≤ 0.05).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗