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Validating MODIS Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Depth Retrieved from Color Ratio Algorithm Using Direct Measurements Made by NASA's Airborne AATS and 4STAR Sensors

We present the validation analysis of above-cloud aerosol optical depth (ACAOD) retrieved from the color ratio method applied to MODIS cloudy-sky reflectance measurements using the limited direct measurements made by NASAs airborne Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS) and Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR) sensors. A thorough search of the airborne database collection revealed a total of five significant events in which an airborne sun photometer, coincident with the MODIS overpass, observed partially absorbing aerosols emitted from agricultural biomass burning, dust, and wildfires over a low-level cloud deck during SAFARI-2000, ACE-ASIA 2001, and SEAC4RS 2013 campaigns, respectively. The co-located satellite-airborne match ups revealed a good agreement (root-mean-square difference less than 0.1), with most match ups falling within the estimated uncertainties associated with the MODIS retrievals (about -10 to +50 ). The co-retrieved cloud optical depth was comparable to that of the MODIS operational cloud product for ACE-ASIA and SEAC4RS, however, higher by 30-50% for the SAFARI-2000 case study. The reason for this discrepancy could be attributed to the distinct aerosol optical properties encountered during respective campaigns. A brief discussion on the sources of uncertainty in the satellite-based ACAOD retrieval and co-location procedure is presented. Field experiments dedicated to making direct measurements of aerosols above cloud are needed for the extensive validation of satellite based retrievals.

airborne sun photometer

Dynamic Routing of Aircraft in the Presence of Adverse Weather Using a POMDP Framework

Each year weather-related airline delays result in hundreds of millions of dollars in additional fuel burn, maintenance, and lost revenue, not to mention passenger inconvenience. The current approaches for aircraft route planning in the presence of adverse weather still mainly rely on deterministic methods. In contrast, this work aims to deal with the problem using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) framework, which allows for reasoning over uncertainty (including uncertainty in weather evolution over time) and results in solutions that are more robust to disruptions. The POMDP-based decision support system is demonstrated on several scenarios involving convective weather cells and is benchmarked against a deterministic planning system with functionality similar to those currently in use or under development.

Decision making

Adaptive Stress Testing: Using Reinforcement Learning to Find Failures in Safety-Critical Systems

Emerging applications in artificial intelligence, such as driverless cars and autonomous aircraft promise to be more efficient, cheaper to operate, and always available. However, ensuring the safety of these systems remains a major challenge to their certification and adoption. These autonomous systems are expected to routinely make safety-critical decisions where failures can have serious consequences including loss of life and property. Testing and validation techniques aim to identify and diagnose potential failures before the system is deployed. However, finding failure scenarios in autonomous systems can be very challenging due to high-dimensional and continuous state spaces, interaction with large environments over many time steps, and the rarity of failures. This talk presents Adaptive Stress Testing (AST), a simulation-based testing framework for finding the most likely path to a failure event of a safety-critical system. The key idea of AST is that stress testing can be formulated as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), which enables reinforcement learning techniques to be used for finding failure events. Reinforcement learning algorithms can efficiently explore the search space and have been shown to scale to very large systems. We present applications of AST to find failures in various safety-critical systems including the aircraft collision avoidance systems, autonomous cars, and small unmanned aerial vehicles.

autonomous vehicles

Oculometric Analysis of Saccadic Compensation for Visual Motion Processing Impairment due to Alcohol and Sleep Disruption

The Visuomotor Control Laboratory at Ames Research Center has developed a 5-minute ocular tracking test that computes 21 largely independent metrics of visuomotor performance, reflecting neural signal processing along a number of distinct pathways through cortex, brainstem, and cerebellum. Human sensorimotor performance is resilient to the challenges and stressors of many operational environments, in part, because overall performance is achieved through multiple parallel systems. Our multidimensional oculometrics allow us to examine impacts on these sub-components separately. To illustrate this, we contrasted the effects of two mild neural stressors, acute sleep-deprivation and low-dose alcohol. We have previously shown that, in both cases, oculometric analysis is a highly sensitive indicator of impairment. Here we quantified not only the observed impact on the performance of one sub-system, smooth pursuit, which uses high-level cortical processing of visual motion to track a moving object, but also the observed (partial) compensation by an evolutionarily older mid-brain and brainstem subsystem, saccades, which generates jumps in eye position to catch up with the target when smooth pursuit is inadequate. Specifically, we examined the dose-response (effect size vs. dose size) of the ground lost (pursuit deficit) and the ground recouped (saccadic compensation) across three separate studies – acute low-dose alcohol administration (16 subjects), acute sleep loss (12 subjects), and acute sleep loss with caffeine intervention (9 subjects). We computed the dose-response slopes using linear regression. The figure below shows that, in the case of acute sleep deprivation, the resulting slopes for ground lost and ground recouped (mean ± SE across subjects) were significantly different (paired t-test, t(11) = 5.17, p < 0.001), indicating poor saccadic compensation. However, when sleep loss was coupled with caffeine ingestion, ground lost was decreased and ground recouped increased such that the slopes were no longer different (t(8) = -0.05, p = 0.965). With alcohol, the two slopes were large albeit not significantly different (t(15) = 0.96, p = 0.351), indicating significant pursuit impairment but effective saccadic compensation. Our findings show that sleep deprivation and alcohol affect oculomotor performance differently. Low-dose alcohol effects appear predominantly cortical, with effective brainstem compensation. Sleep loss and circadian disruption however appears to affect both cortical and brainstem pathways with caffeine providing an effective countermeasure to both effects. Beyond the mere detection of impairment, our oculometric assessment allows us to characterize the nature of the deficit, to provide insight into the neural substrate, and to assess the effectiveness of countermeasures.

pursuit

EARLINET evaluation of the CATS Level 2 aerosol backscatter coefficient product

We present the evaluation activity of the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) for the quantitative assessment of the Level 2 aerosol backscatter coefficient product derived by the Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) aboard the International Space Station (ISS; Rodier et al., 2015). The study employs correlative CATS and EARLINET backscatter measurements within a 50 km distance between the ground station and the ISS overpass and as close in time as possible, typically with the starting time or stopping time of the EARLINET performed measurement time window within 90 min of the ISS overpass, for the period from February 2015 to September 2016. The results demonstrate the good agreement of the CATS Level 2 backscatter coefficient and EARLINET. Three ISS overpasses close to the EARLINET stations of Leipzig, Germany; Évora, Portugal; and Dushanbe, Tajikistan, are analyzed here to demonstrate the performance of the CATS lidar system under different conditions. The results show that under cloud-free, relative homogeneous aerosol conditions, CATS is in good agreement with EARLINET, independent of daytime and nighttime conditions. CATS low negative biases are observed, partially attributed to the deficiency of lidar systems to detect tenuous aerosol layers of backscatter signal below the minimum detection thresholds; these are biases which may lead to systematic deviations and slight underestimations of the total aerosol optical depth (AOD) in climate studies. In addition, CATS misclassification of aerosol layers as clouds, and vice versa, in cases of coexistent and/or adjacent aerosol and cloud features, occasionally leads to non-representative, unrealistic, and cloud-contaminated aerosol profiles. Regarding solar illumination conditions, low negative biases in CATS backscatter coefficient profiles, of the order of 6.1 %, indicate the good nighttime performance of CATS. During daytime, a reduced signal-to-noise ratio by solar background illumination prevents retrievals of weakly scattering atmospheric layers that would otherwise be detectable during nighttime, leading to higher negative biases, of the order of 22.3 %.

Emmanouil Proestakis

Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional Airports

Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.

VFR

Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional Airports

Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.

VFR

Estimation from incomplete multinomial data

The vector of multinomial cell probabilities was estimated from incomplete data, incomplete in that it contains partially classified observations. Each such partially classified observation was observed to fall in one of two or more selected categories but was not classified further into a single category. The data were assumed to be incomplete at random. The estimation criterion was minimization of risk for quadratic loss. The estimators were the classical maximum likelihood estimate, the Bayesian posterior mode, and the posterior mean. An approximation was developed for the posterior mean. The Dirichlet, the conjugate prior for the multinomial distribution, was assumed for the prior distribution.

Credeur, K. R.

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL VLBI parameter estimation software MASTERFIT-1987

This report is a revision of the document of the same title (1986), dated August 1, which it supersedes. Model changes during 1986 and 1987 included corrections for antenna feed rotation, refraction in modelling antenna axis offsets, and an option to employ improved values of the semiannual and annual nutation amplitudes. Partial derivatives of the observables with respect to an additional parameter (surface temperature) are now available. New versions of two figures representing the geometric delay are incorporated. The expressions for the partial derivatives with respect to the nutation parameters have been corrected to include contributions from the dependence of UTI on nutation. The authors hope to publish revisions of this document in the future, as modeling improvements warrant.

Sovers, O. J.

Physical Models In GPSOMC Software

Report desribes physical models incorporated into GPSOMC, (modeling module of GIPSY software) which processes geodetic measurements in Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) system. Models describe spacecraft orbits and motions of receivers fixed to Earth. Supplies apriori values of computed observables and partial derivatives of computed observables with respect to parameters of models. Describes portion of software modeling locations of receivers and motions of whole Earth and computes observables and partial derivatives. Corrected, expanded, and updated version of JPL Publication 87-21, September 15, 1987.

Sovers, Ojars J.

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL VLBI parameter estimation software MODEST, 19 94

This report is a revision of the document Observation Model and Parameter Partials for the JPL VLBI Parameter Estimation Software 'MODEST'---1991, dated August 1, 1991. It supersedes that document and its four previous versions (1983, 1985, 1986, and 1987). A number of aspects of the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) model were improved from 1991 to 1994. Treatment of tidal effects is extended to model the effects of ocean tides on universal time and polar motion (UTPM), including a default model for nearly diurnal and semidiurnal ocean tidal UTPM variations, and partial derivatives for all (solid and ocean) tidal UTPM amplitudes. The time-honored 'K(sub 1) correction' for solid earth tides has been extended to include analogous frequency-dependent response of five tidal components. Partials of ocean loading amplitudes are now supplied. The Zhu-Mathews-Oceans-Anisotropy (ZMOA) 1990-2 and Kinoshita-Souchay models of nutation are now two of the modeling choices to replace the increasingly inadequate 1980 International Astronomical Union (IAU) nutation series. A rudimentary model of antenna thermal expansion is provided. Two more troposphere mapping functions have been added to the repertoire. Finally, corrections among VLBI observations via the model of Treuhaft and lanyi improve modeling of the dynamic troposphere. A number of minor misprints in Rev. 4 have been corrected.

Sovers, O. J.

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL geodetic (GPS) modeling software 'GPSOMC'

The physical models employed in GPSOMC, the modeling module of the GIPSY software system developed at JPL for analysis of geodetic Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) measurements are described. Details of the various contributions to range and phase observables are given, as well as the partial derivatives of the observed quantities with respect to model parameters. A glossary of parameters is provided to enable persons doing data analysis to identify quantities with their counterparts in the computer programs. The present version is the second revision of the original document which it supersedes. The modeling is expanded to provide the option of using Cartesian station coordinates; parameters for the time rates of change of universal time and polar motion are also introduced.

Sovers, O. J.

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL geodetic GPS modeling software GPSOMC

The physical models employed in GPSOMC and the modeling module of the GIPSY software system developed at JPL for analysis of geodetic Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) measurements are described. Details of the various contributions to range and phase observables are given, as well as the partial derivatives of the observed quantities with respect to model parameters. A glossary of parameters is provided to enable persons doing data analysis to identify quantities in the current report with their counterparts in the computer programs. There are no basic model revisions, with the exceptions of an improved ocean loading model and some new options for handling clock parametrization. Such misprints as were discovered were corrected. Further revisions include modeling improvements and assurances that the model description is in accord with the current software.

Sovers, O. J.

Ground and aircraft infrared observations over a partially-vegetated area

Consideration is given to the feasibility of estimated a reliable composite surface temperature over a partially-vegetated and furrowed cotton field with an intensive ground sampling routing using hand-held radiometers. The ground-based data are compared with surface temperatures taken from an aircraft at an altitude of about 150 m. A simple model is presented for computing the composite surface temperature using component temperatures of the soil and vegetation and row crop dimensions and orientations. The results of the modeling are compared with the ground-based and airborne radiometric measurements. It is found that estimates of the composite surface temperature comparable to low-flying aircraft observations over row crops with sparse cover may be obtained using ground-based estimates of average canopy temperature.

Kustas, W. P.

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL VLBI parameter estimation software MODEST/1991

A revision is presented of MASTERFIT-1987, which it supersedes. Changes during 1988 to 1991 included introduction of the octupole component of solid Earth tides, the NUVEL tectonic motion model, partial derivatives for the precession constant and source position rates, the option to correct for source structure, a refined model for antenna offsets, modeling the unique antenna at Richmond, FL, improved nutation series due to Zhu, Groten, and Reigber, and reintroduction of the old (Woolard) nutation series for simulation purposes. Text describing the relativistic transformations and gravitational contributions to the delay model was also revised in order to reflect the computer code more faithfully.

Sovers, O. J.

Reflection of radio waves by sporadic-E layers

A full-wave analysis of the reflection coefficient is developed and applied to electron-density profiles of midlatitude sporadic-E layers observed by rocket-borne probes. It is shown that partial reflection from the large electron-density gradients at the upper and lower boundaries of sporadic-E layers does not account for the partial transparency observed by ionosondes.

Miller, K. L.

In-Situ Partial Pressure Measurements and Visual Observation during Crystal Growth of ZnSe by Seeded Physical Vapor Transport

An in-situ monitoring furnace was constructed with side windows to perform partial pressure measurements by optical absorption and visual observation of the growing crystal. A fused silica -rowth ampoule with a 4.5 cm long square tube between the source and the seed was prepared for the optical absorption measurements. A ZnSe crystal was grown by the seeded physical vapor transport (PVT) technique in the horizontal configuration. The growth temperature was 1120 C and the furnace translation rate was 3nmVday. Partial pressures of Se2, P(sub Se2), at three locations along the length of the growth ampoule were measured at 90 min intervals during the growth process. The measured P (sub Se2) were in the range of 2.0 to 6.5 x 10(exp -3) atm. The P(sub Se2) results indicated that the partial pressure profile was inconsistent with the results of the one-dimensional diffusion mass transport model and that the source composition shifted toward Se-rich during the run, i.e. the grown crystal was more Zn-rich than the source. The visual observation showed that the seed crystal first etched back, with greater thermal etching occurring along the edges of the seed crystal. Once the growth started, the crystal crew in a predominately contactless mode and facets were evident during growth. The crystal did not grow symmetrically which is believed to be due to the unintentional asymmetry of the radial thermal profile in the furnace.

Su, Ching-Hua