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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1979

Ku-band radar threshold analysis

The statistics of the CFAR threshold for the Ku-band radar was determined. Exact analytical results were developed for both the mean and standard deviations in the designated search mode. The mean value is compared to the results of a previously reported simulation. The analytical results are more optimistic than the simulation results, for which no explanation is offered. The normalized standard deviation is shown to be very sensitive to signal-to-noise ratio and very insensitive to the noise correlation present in the range gates of the designated search mode. The substantial variation in the CFAR threshold is dominant at large values of SNR where the normalized standard deviation is greater than 0.3. Whether or not this significantly affects the resulting probability of detection is a matter which deserves additional attention.

Weber, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Heat and electricity from the Sun using parabolic dish collector systems

Point focus distributed receiver solar thermal technology for the production of electric power and of industrial process heat is addressed. The thermal power systems project which emphasizes the development of cost effective systems which will accelerate the commercialization and industrialization of plants up to 10 MWe, using parabolic dish collectors is described. The projected size of the isolated load market in the 1990-2000 time period is 300 to 1000 MW/year. Although this market is small in comparison to the grid connected utility market, it is indicated that by assuming only a 20 percent market penetration, up to 10,000 power modules per year would be required to meet this need. At a production rate of 25,000 units/year and assuming no energy storage, levelized bus bar energy costs of 75 mills/kWeh are projected. These numbers are based on what is believed to be a conservative estimate regarding engine-generator conversion efficiency (40 percent) for the 1990 time period. With a more optimistic estimate of efficiency (i.e., 45 percent), the bus bar cost decreases to about 67 mills/kWeh. At very large production rates (400,000 modules/years), the costs decrease to 58 mills/kWeh. Finally, the present status of the technology development effort is discussed.

Truscello, V. C.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Economic Evaluation of Single-Family-Residence Solar-Energy System

Report concludes that where solar-energy system investment costs are presently high, future promise of savings due to increased conventional energy costs is not optimistic. This is because cost of system tends to increase at a rate not significantly less than the cost of conventional energy.

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NASA NTRS1981

Low drag attitude control for Skylab orbital lifetime extension

In the fall of 1977 it was determined that Skylab had started to tumble and that the original orbit lifetime predictions were much too optimistic. A decision had to be made whether to accept an early uncontrolled reentry with its inherent risks or try to attempt to control Skylab to a lower drag attitude in the hope that there was enough time to develop a Teleoperator Retrieval System, bring it up on the Space Shuttle and then decide whether to boost Skylab to a higher longer life orbit or to reenter it in a controlled fashion. The end-on-velocity (EOVV) control method is documented, which was successfully applied for about half a year to keep Skylab in a low drag attitude with the aid of the control moment gyros and a minimal expenditure of attitude control gas.

Glaese, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

Bowyer, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Cost and performance projections for SPS photovoltaic blankets

An estimate, based on optimistic projections of current technology, is given for the specific power of photovoltaic blankets which might be achieved if the SPS concept was to be implemented. A simultaneous consideration of cost and technical requirements is used to identify key blanket technologies which must be developed for this reference system. The terrestrial photovoltaic experience coupled with new technology is used to develop cost estimates for the blanket, assuming an annual demand of 5 GW and a manufacturing industry dedicated to blanket production. The results indicate that blanket specific power goals may be exceeded, but there is little prospect that the cost goals can be met. This argues for a reconsideration of the photovoltaic option based on more expensive but higher performance blankets.

Scott-Monck, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Mobile radio alternative systems study. Volume 1: Traffic model

The markets for mobile radio services in non-urban areas of the United States are examined for the years 1985-2000. Three market categories are identified. New Services are defined as those for which there are different expressed ideas but which are not now met by any application of available technology. The complete fulfillment of the needs requires nationwide radio access to vehicles without knowledge of vehicle location, wideband data transmission from remote sites, one- and two way exchange of short data and control messages between vehicles and dispatch or control centers, and automatic vehicle location (surveillance). The commercial and public services market of interest to the study is drawn from existing users of mobile radio in non-urban areas who are dissatisfied with the geographical range or coverage of their systems. The mobile radio telephone market comprises potential users who require access to the public switched telephone network in areas that are not likely to be served by the traditional growth patterns of terrestrial mobile telephone services. Conservative, likely, and optimistic estimates of the markets are presented in terms of numbers of vehicles that will be served and the radio traffic they will generate.

Tucker, W. T.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Electrical Power Trade-Offs

Electrical power trade studies were initiated in September 1982 supporting the Space Station Systems Definition activity. Responsibility for performing the electrical power trade studies (Power Data Base) was divided between the NASA Centers. Center representatives and their respective subjects are identified in the accompanying chart. The data base material was used to conduct a general storage trade study. When the results appeared to favor the flywheel option, effort was focused on a comparative flywheel investigation wherein a range of flywheel performance and cost possibilities was compared with optimistic projections of competing options.

Giudici, B.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The photometric method of detecting other planetary systems

Rosenblatt (1971) has conducted an investigation regarding the use of photometric techniques to detect other planetary systems by searching for changes in starlight caused by the transit of a planet. The obtained results suggest that neither the intrinsic variation of the starlight nor the transmission fluctuations in the terrestrial atmosphere would prevent detection of planets as small as Mars with telescope apertures of 40 to 60 cm. The present investigation shows that Rosenblatt's results are too optimistic even for present-day differential photometric techniques. However, it appears that the detection of planets at least one-third the size of Jupiter is feasible, if a photometer with the required precision can be developed, taking into account the availability of a wide-angle telescope with a 1- to 2-m aperture.

Borucki, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Immediate and long-term prospects for helioseismology

Recent extensive measurements of frequencies of free oscillation of the sun have permitted a first direct estimate of the variation of sound speed and angular velocity throughout the sun. The results hint that the answers to some tantalizing questions concerning the sun's interior structure and its history are almost within grasp. Optimists like myself believe that in a few years a worldwide network of ground-based observing stations will give us imortant clues. However, it may be necessary to make observations from space before we can be sure of the answers.

Gough, D. O.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A nonproprietary, nonsecret program for calculating Stirling cryocoolers

A design program for an integrated Stirling cycle cryocooler was written on an IBM-PC computer. The program is easy to use and shows the trends and itemizes the losses. The calculated results were compared with some measured performance values. The program predicts somewhat optimistic performance and needs to be calibrated more with experimental measurements. Adding a multiplier to the friction factor can bring the calculated rsults in line with the limited test results so far available. The program is offered as a good framework on which to build a truly useful design program for all types of cryocoolers.

Martini, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Cretaceous extinctions - Evidence for wildfires and search for meteoritic material

The results of analyses of the contents of deposits in the Cretaceous-Ternary (K-T) transition at three sites worldwide are discussed. The study was undertaken to examine the composition of the object which may have struck the earth, causing widespread biotic extinction. The data indicate that most of the parent body was destroyed on impact, a condition which would also hold true for comets, suggesting that comets were not a source of prebiotic life. A four-orders-of-magnitude excess of carbon in the K-T layer is considered in terms of its source, which is suspected to be deposits from wildfires. The consequent extinctions of species are regarded as possibly making the current nuclear winter scenarios too optimistic.

Wolbach, W. S.↗

NASA NTRS1986

US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 2: Fiber optic technology and long distance networks

The study projects until 2000 the evolution of long distance fiber optic networks in the U.S. Volume 1 is the Executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic components and systems that are directly related to the operation of long-haul networks. Optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenarios of technology development are presented. The activities of national and regional companies implementing fiber long haul networks are also highlighted, along with an analysis of the market and regulatory forces affecting network evolution. Volume 3 presents advanced fiber optic network concept definitions. Inter-LATA traffic is quantified and forms the basis for the construction of 11-, 15-, 17-, and 23-node networks. Using the technology projections from Volume 2, a financial model identifies cost drivers and determines circuit mile costs between any two LATAs. A comparison of fiber optics with alternative transmission concludes the report.

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NASA NTRS1986

US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 3: Advanced networks and economics

This study projects until 2000 the evolution of long distance fiber optic networks in the U.S. Volume 1 is the executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic components and systems that are directly related to the operation of long-haul networks. Optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenarios of technology development are presented. The activities of national and regional companies implementing fiber long haul networks are also highlighted, along with an analysis of the market and regulatory forces affecting network evolution. Volume 3 presents advanced fiber optic network concept definitions. Inter-LATA traffic is quantified and forms the basis for the construction of 11-, 15-, 17-, and 23-node networks. Using the technology projections from Volume 2, a financial model identifies cost drivers and determines circuit mile costs between any two LATAs. A comparison of fiber optics with alternative transmission concludes the report.

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NASA NTRS1986

Historical overview, accomplishments, and value of the FSA project: Industry

An historical overview of the progress of photovoltaics (PV) as a function of oil price and DOE PV budgeting levels was presented. The state of the worldwide PV industry, the PV interests and activities of utilities, and the phases of evolution that a technology such a photovoltaics goes through on the way to commercialization were reviewed. Although the length of time it will take photovoltaics to evolve from discovery to commercialization was increased from 50 to 80 years, the outlook is optimistic.

Little, R.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Improved VAS regression soundings of mesoscale temperature structure observed during the 1982 atmospheric variability experiment

An Atmospheric Variability Experiment (AVE) was conducted over the central U.S. in the spring of 1982, collecting radiosonde date to verify mesoscale soundings from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) on the GOES satellite. Previously published VAS/AVE comparisons for the 6 March 1982 case found that the satellite retrievals scarcely detected a low level temperature inversion or a mid-tropospheric cold pool over a special mesoscale radiosonde verification network in north central Texas. The previously published regression and physical retrieval algorithms did not fully utilize VAS' sensitivity to important subsynoptic thermal features. Therefore, the 6 March 1982 case was reprocessed adding two enhancements to the VAS regression retrieval algorithm: (1) the regression matrix was determined using AVE profile data obtained in the region at asynoptic times, and (2) more optimistic signal-to-noise statistical conditioning factors were applied to the VAS temperature sounding channels. The new VAS soundings resolve more of the low level temperature inversion and mid-level cold pool. Most of the improvements stems from the utilization of asynoptic radiosonde observations at NWS sites. This case suggests that VAS regression soundings may require a ground-based asynoptic profiler network to bridge the gap between the synoptic radiosonde network and the high resolution geosynchronous satellite observations during the day.

Chesters, Dennis↗

NASA NTRS1985

Heat transfer in a real engine environment

The hot section facility at the Lewis Research Center was used to demonstrate the capability of instruments to make required measurements of boundary conditions of the flow field and heat transfer processes in the hostile environment of the turbine. The results of thermal scaling tests show that low temperature and pressure rig tests give optimistic estimates of the thermal performance of a cooling design for high pressure and temperature application. The results of measuring heat transfer coefficients on turbine vane airfoils through dynamic data analysis show good comparison with measurements from steady state heat flux gauges. In addition, the data trends are predicted by the STAN5 boundary layer code. However, the magnitude of the experimental data was not predicted by the analysis, particularly in laminar and transitional regions near the leading edge. The infrared photography system was shown capable of providing detailed surface thermal gradients and secondary flow features on a turbine vane and endwell.

Gladden, Herbert J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Mathematical algorithms for approximate reasoning

Most state of the art expert system environments contain a single and often ad hoc strategy for approximate reasoning. Some environments provide facilities to program the approximate reasoning algorithms. However, the next generation of expert systems should have an environment which contain a choice of several mathematical algorithms for approximate reasoning. To meet the need for validatable and verifiable coding, the expert system environment must no longer depend upon ad hoc reasoning techniques but instead must include mathematically rigorous techniques for approximate reasoning. Popular approximate reasoning techniques are reviewed, including: certainty factors, belief measures, Bayesian probabilities, fuzzy logic, and Shafer-Dempster techniques for reasoning. A group of mathematically rigorous algorithms for approximate reasoning are focused on that could form the basis of a next generation expert system environment. These algorithms are based upon the axioms of set theory and probability theory. To separate these algorithms for approximate reasoning various conditions of mutual exclusivity and independence are imposed upon the assertions. Approximate reasoning algorithms presented include: reasoning with statistically independent assertions, reasoning with mutually exclusive assertions, reasoning with assertions that exhibit minimum overlay within the state space, reasoning with assertions that exhibit maximum overlay within the state space (i.e. fuzzy logic), pessimistic reasoning (i.e. worst case analysis), optimistic reasoning (i.e. best case analysis), and reasoning with assertions with absolutely no knowledge of the possible dependency among the assertions. A robust environment for expert system construction should include the two modes of inference: modus ponens and modus tollens. Modus ponens inference is based upon reasoning towards the conclusion in a statement of logical implication, whereas modus tollens inference is based upon reasoning away from the conclusion. These algorithms allow one to reason accurately with uncertain data. The above environment can replicate state-f-the-art expert system environments which provides a continuity between the current expert systems which cannot be validated or verified and future expert systems which should be both validated and verified

Murphy, John H.↗