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The impact of management science on political decision making

The possible impact on public policy and organizational decision making of operations research/management science (OR/MS) is discussed. Criticisms based on the assumption that OR/MS will have influence on decision making and criticisms based on the assumption that it will have no influence are described. New directions in the analysis of analysis and in thinking about policy making are also considered.

White, M. J.

Markov Decision Processes for Intelligent, Risk-Informed Asset-Management Decision-Making

Advanced nuclear reactors are a promising option for aiding the world in achieving its net-zero carbon emission goals, however, there are significant challenges to attaining and maintaining economic competitiveness with other sources of electricity. To improve the economic competitiveness of advanced reactor designs, a project was initiated to explore the use of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to guide asset-management decision-making during advanced reactor operation. MDPs are a powerful tool for optimizing decision-making in complex environments and their application to advanced reactors can aid in planning maintenance and repair activities to minimize downtime and maximize generation. The described approach expands on previous work regarding the use of MDPs for operational decision-making through the direct incorporation of real-time plant information. The integral MDP analysis includes information from online component diagnostic tools and the plant’s real-time generation risk assessment (GRA) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which evaluate plant risk from both an economic and safety perspective. The result is an asset-management optimization framework that is based on real-time data regarding plant component status and the current best-estimate of plant risk. The paper presents an overview of the theoretical framework to incorporate the different information pathways into an integral MDP analysis, along with example analyses.

Grabaskas, David

Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries: Summary of Laboratory Directed Research & Development Effort

The Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries (TACCRAB) tool is an innovative digital twin (DT) platform and automated risk algorithm designed to transform operational decision-making in structured screening environments, with an initial focus on Southern Border Land Ports of Entry (POEs). The invention provides integration points for advanced artificial intelligence, predictive modeling, and real-time data analysis to produce a comprehensive risk management tool that enables proactive, data-informed security strategies. The core inventive features of TACCRAB center on its unique risk algorithm, which dynamically calculates contextual risk by synthesizing historical data, near real-time streaming data from the checkpoints themselves, and AI-generated predictions. Unlike traditional risk assessment methods, TACCRAB utilizes a DT to provide comprehensive operational insights, allowing stakeholders to visualize, simulate, and optimize checkpoint configurations with unprecedented speed and contextual awareness. TACCRAB's key innovation lies in its ability to combine multiple complex inputs - including technology detection probabilities, resource availability, screening pathway characteristics, and threat actor behavioral patterns - into a unified risk calculation and update these inputs based on changing operational and environmental conditions. By leveraging a DT that continuously updates and learns from linked data, TACCRAB can suggest adaptive mitigation strategies that minimize risk while maintaining operational efficiency. Particularly novel is the platform's approach to decision support, which goes beyond static risk assessment. The DT provides dynamic metrics such as wait times, resource allocation effectiveness, and potential emerging threat scenarios, enabling users to view sophisticated, relevant what-if simulations and optimize checkpoint operations in near real-time. The system's architecture allows for generalized application across different screening environments, such as secure facilities, ports of entry, and soft targets, making it a versatile tool for security and operational management. The invention distinguishes itself through its comprehensive integration of predictive modeling, AI-driven pattern discovery, and user-friendly interface design. By combining these elements, TACCRAB transforms complex risk data into actionable insights, supporting decision-makers at various organizational levels - from booth agents making split-second screening decisions to checkpoint managers optimizing the day's resource allocation to strategic planners managing long-term investments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF

Vexcel Imaging's Suitability for Automatic Verification

Accurate, independently verified geospatial data is essential for automated calibration, validation, and operational decision-making. This study evaluated the positional accuracy of Vexcel Imaging™’s UltraCam® Osprey imagery (7.5 cm GSD) using globally distributed Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) as independent control. Despite manufacturer claims of 15 cm horizontal accuracy, residual errors were consistently one to two orders of magnitude larger, with no subset of imagery meeting precision thresholds. These discrepancies cannot be explained by normal photogrammetric or environmental factors and raise concerns about the reliability of the imagery for high-precision tasks. The results demonstrate that Vexcel imagery, in its current form, is unsuitable for workflows requiring rigorous spatial accuracy or automated verification. At the same time, the reproducible validation framework developed in this study establishes a scalable method for assessing commercial imagery, ensuring that future products can be independently and objectively verified before operational adoption.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION

An Operational Perspective of Total Lightning Information

The close and productive collaborations between the NWS Warning and Forecast Office, the Short Term Prediction and Research Transition Center at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama in Huntsville have provided a unique opportunity for science sharing and technology transfer. One significant technology transfer that has provided immediate benefits to NWS forecast and warning operations is the use of data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array. This network consists of ten VHF receivers deployed across northern Alabama and a base station located at the National Space Science and Technology Center. Preliminary investigations done at WFO Huntsville, along with other similar total lightning networks across the country, have shown distinct correlations between the time rate-of-change of total lightning and trends in intensity/severity of the parent convective cell. Since May 2003 when WFO HUN began receiving these data - in conjunction with other more traditional remotely sensed data (radar, satellite, and surface observations) -- have improved the situational awareness of the WFO staff. The use of total lightning information, either from current ground based systems or future space borne instrumentation, may substantially contribute to the NWS mission, by enhancing severe weather warning and decision-making processes. Operational use of the data has been maximized at WFO Huntsville through a process that includes forecaster training, product implementation, and post event analysis and assessments. Since receiving these data, over 50 surveys have been completed highlighting the use of total lightning information during significant events across the Tennessee Valley. In addition, around 150 specific cases of interest have been archived for collaborative post storm analysis. From these datasets, detailed trending information from radar and total lightning can be compared to corresponding damage reports. This presentation will emphasize the effective use of total lightning information in warning decision making along with best practices for implementation of new technologies into operations.

Nadler, David J.

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES

Grid Operator Analytics and Assessment Tools for Inverter- Based Resources Dominated Grid (GOAAT-IBR) Project Update

This presentation provides an update on the OPTIMA GOAAT project, with emphasis on the cloud-native data platform developed in-house to ingest, manage, and operationalize high-resolution power system data. Since our last NASPI presentation, accessible via OSTI ID #2671437, the project team advanced the design and deployment of a scalable architecture capable of handling both synchronized and non-synchronized streams, including PMU, point-on-wave (POW), COMTRADE, and SCADA data. These materials review the project status, recent progress, and key lessons learned. The core of the presentation examines the architecture and engineering of our cloud-native ingestion and data management platform. We then explain how pipelines were designed to collect, normalize, time-align, store, and serve heterogeneous data at scale. We will discuss design choices such as data models, streaming versus batch ingestion, storage tiers, and interoperability with analytics applications. Practical experiences with cloud-native technologies were shared during the event, including benefits, limitations, and integration challenges in a utility environment, along with methods used to improve performance, reduce latency, and optimize resource usage. The presentation also showcases user interface designs and visualization tools that convert raw measurements and analytics results into intuitive, actionable insights for operators and engineers. During the presentation examples were provided demonstrating how visualization, event views, and summarized analytics enhance situational awareness and support operational decision-making. These use cases illustrate how a well-designed data infrastructure can bridge the gap between high-volume measurements and practical grid operations.

Aminifar, Farrokh

Decision Making Training in the Mission Operations Directorate

At JSC, we train our new flight controllers on a set of team skills that we call Space Flight Resource Management (SFRM). SFRM is akin to Crew Resource Management for the airlines and trains flight controllers to work as an effective team to reduce errors and improve safety. We have developed this training over the years with the assistance of Ames Research Center, Wyle Labs and University of Central Florida. One of the skills we teach is decision making/ problem solving (DM/PS). We teach DM/PS first in several classroom sessions, reinforce it in several part task training environments, and finally practice it in full-mission, full-team simulations. What I am proposing to talk about is this training flow: its content and how we teach it.

O'Keefe, William S.

Coping with Irregular Operations: Implications for a Free Flight Environment

Irregular operations involve disruption of scheduled airline operations. They ate of concern to the carriers because they cost money, require personnel effort, and may harm customer good will. Irregular operations may result from aircraft system malfunctions that take planes out of service or result in cancellations, Might system problems or passenger medical emergencies that require diversions, local airport problems that may close down a runway, or weather systems that restrict flow into airports or regions. At the heart of responding to irregular operations is distributed decision making by members of airline operations centers, pilots, and the air traffic control system. Six U.S. carriers participated in a study in which we observed strategies used by operations center personnel to handle various classes of irregular operations. We focused on situations that are most disruptive to regular operations and are most difficult to cope with. We also sought to identify classes of events that would be most affected by changes in the air traffic management system. How a carrier deals with disruptions to its schedule reflects its philosophy and primary goals, as well as its resources. Size and type of operations (short or long-haul) determine which problems have priority. Each airline has different technological support tools to aid in flight planning and replanning, and some carriers have established contingency procedures for coping with various situations. We also examined differences in extent and type of interaction between ABC personnel and various elements of the air traffic system as they managed various problems: who interacts with AM what situations prompt interaction, how often these occur, and the outcomes and Perceived benefits. Use of the expanded NRP program was also studied, along with its advantages to the individual companies. We also examined the implications of the proposed change to a free flight environment on airline strategies for coping with irregular operations.

Orasanu, Judith

Aircraft Weather Mitigation for the Next Generation Air Transportation System

Atmospheric effects on aviation are described by Mahapatra (1999) as including (1) atmospheric phenomena involving air motion - wind shear and turbulence; (2) hydrometeorological phenomena - rain, snow and hail; (3) aircraft icing; (4) low visibility; and (5) atmospheric electrical phenomena. Aircraft Weather Mitigation includes aircraft systems (e.g. airframe, propulsion, avionics, controls) that can be enacted (by a pilot, automation or hybrid systems) to suppress and/or prepare for the effects of encountered or unavoidable weather or to facilitate a crew operational decision-making process relative to weather. Aircraft weather mitigation can be thought of as a continuum (Figure 1) with the need to avoid all adverse weather at one extreme and the ability to safely operate in all weather conditions at the other extreme. Realistic aircraft capabilities fall somewhere between these two extremes. The capabilities of small general aviation aircraft would be expected to fall closer to the "Avoid All Adverse Weather" point, and the capabilities of large commercial jet transports would fall closer to the "Operate in All Weather Conditions" point. The ability to safely operate in adverse weather conditions is dependent upon the pilot s capabilities (training, total experience and recent experience), the airspace in which the operation is taking place (terrain, navigational aids, traffic separation), the capabilities of the airport (approach guidance, runway and taxiway lighting, availability of air traffic control), as well as the capabilities of the airplane. The level of mitigation may vary depending upon the type of adverse weather. For example, a small general aviation airplane may be equipped to operate "in the clouds" without outside visual references, but not be equipped to prevent airframe ice that could be accreted in those clouds.

Stough, H. Paul, III

Tri-Agency Reliability Engineering Guidance: Post Mission Disposal and Extension Assessment

The Trilateral partners — the European Space Agency (ESA), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the United States Government (USG) in their execution of safe and successful missions, have a long-standing history of sustaining the shared space environment of operational Earth-Moon orbits with their global space-stewardship, or spacekeeping, of these areas. This has driven missions to limit the generation of new and long-lived debris, control debris releases, minimize accidental explosions and collisions, and ensure Post-Mission Disposal of space systems, so that the environment remains safe for future operations and explorations. Given the continued need for space systems to support global mandatory infrastructure and commercial enterprise, spacefarers are extending beyond the Trilateral partners, more and smaller satellites are being deployed, and current assets are being utilized much longer than expected. This is making space more congested than ever; therefore, the Trilateral partners are evaluating potential future debris mitigation strategies, evolving technology, developing on-orbit servicing capabilities, and advancing their abilities to assess disposal and mission extension plans. They are also sharing their lessons learned and identifying opportunities for future state-of-the-art advancements for current and future space enterprises. Sustaining the space environment cannot be ensured by any one agency or country. Thus, the Trilateral authors have shared their lessons learned, insights, and guidance, herein, on disposal and mission extension assessment strategies with the gratitude of each agency. As such, this document is not prescriptive, but was formulated to enhance value-and-risk-balanced operational decision-making, support policy refinement, and guide spacefaring partners beyond these agencies to assess their activities in space with safety and a global space-stewardship, or spacekeeping, in mind. This includes not only the disposal and mission extension assessment addressed herein, but also preserving space history, ensuring collaboration/interoperability of technology, supporting fellow operators without interfering, and the utilization of in-situ resources for the common benefit of humankind. It is the intention of the Trilateral partners that this document evolves based on community lessons learned and the introduction of new assessment methodologies. So, all readers are encouraged to share their insights with the authors from their own application of this guidance or other strategies to ensure each mission has a successful, safe, and judicious life and conclusion.

ESA

Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) In-Trail Procedures (ITP)

Aircraft in oceanic and remote non-radar airspace frequently fly for extended periods of time in the same direction, at the same time, along similar flight paths as other aircraft. Since there is no radar surveillance, controllers use procedural separation to ensure that aircraft remain separated. Procedural separation distances are typically larger than radar separation distances and as a result aircraft operating in oceanic airspace are sometimes held at non-optimal flight levels due to conflicting traffic at intervening flight levels. Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) In-Trail Procedures (ITP) were developed to enable flight level change maneuvers that would otherwise not be possible with current procedural separation standards. Aircraft operators choosing to equip with an ADS-B transceiver and an appropriate onboard decision support system would be able to take advantage of these procedures when operating in proximity to aircraft equipped with a suitable ADS-B transmitter (“ADS-B Out”). The ability to perform in-trail maneuvers to achieve more time at optimum altitudes could result in more efficient and predictable flight profiles thereby saving fuel and in some cases allowing operators to make beneficial operational decisions. NASA first began developing ADS-B ITP in 2003 as a result of a desire to develop methodologies, concepts, and procedures to reduce separation requirements for future air transportation systems using airborne ADS-B. The objectives were to provide insight into the details necessary to reduce separation requirements for the future and to develop applications that could provide incentives for operators to voluntarily equip with transformational technologies. From 2003 to 2008, NASA conducted research that supported the development of ITP including batch simulations, human-in-the-loop experiments and avionics and separation standards development. This research showed enough maturity and benefit that in 2008, the FAA Surveillance and Broadcast Services (SBS) program adopted ADS-B ITP as one of their three key, near-term applications to make use of ADS-B-In. The FAA developed an agreement with NASA to transition the technology and established an FAA project for the purpose of performing an operational trial of ADS-B ITP in revenue service in the summer of 2011. The objectives of the project are to a) validate the operational performance and economic benefits of ITP; and b) develop and validate ADS-B ITP Minimum Operational Performance Specifications (MOPS) material. As a part of this project, the FAA established agreements with United Airlines and Honeywell. The agreements include the work necessary for the development, certification and installation of onboard systems for twelve United Airlines 747-400s. ITP system development is nearly complete and certification activities are underway. The FAA project has also been working with Oakland Oceanic Control Center (ZOA) and the FAA’s Oceanic and Offshore Operations Office to develop controller procedures and safety analyses that are required to support the flight trial. The FAA has also been working on the development of an ITP Operational Specification that should be approved this April. The presentation will cover some of the key aspects of the development, challenges, and integration required to successfully transition ADS-B ITP from a concept in 2003 to flight trials in revenue service in 2011.

Kenneth M Jones

Smallsat 2024 - Starling Cubesat Swarm Technology Demonstration Flight Results

The Starling swarm of four 6U CubeSats launched in July 2023 to test four key technologies to enable future swarm missions: 1) Mobile Ad-Hoc Networking (MANET) over a crosslink radio network 2) Autonomous onboard decision-making for operations 3) Optical-based absolute and relative navigation 4) Autonomous maneuver planning and execution The Starling team implemented the Better Approach to Mobile Ad-hoc Networking (B.A.T.M.A.N.) protocol to automatically manage the crosslink network of four satellites. The B.A.T.M.A.N. protocol uses a decentralized approach to managing a multi-hop mesh network of devices, in this case, a satellite swarm. The four satellites were able to successfully establish a network at multiple data rates and demonstrate file transfer and command issuance between spacecraft over the network. Starling incorporated Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy's (DSA) software to demonstrate onboard decision-making. The DSA software takes L1/L2 band GPS measurements and uses them to estimate the relative Total Electron Count (TEC) in the ionosphere. The onboard software then determines if there are any features of interest and provides that information to the other satellites over the crosslink network. The swarm of satellites then reaches a consensus on the optimal TEC observation strategy and adjusts its measurement collection tactics autonomously. The Starling Formation-Flying Optical Experiment (StarFOX), produced by Stanford's Space Rendezvous Laboratory, uses the onboard star trackers to collect images of the other swarm spacecraft and produce angles-only navigation estimates. This system is envisioned to be valuable in applications in which Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are not available, such as in cis-lunar or deep space. StarFOX successfully applied its algorithms to multiple simultaneous spacecraft targets using the star tracker imagery. Finally, Starling used Emergent Space's Cluster Flight Application (CFA) software suite for the Reconfiguration and Orbit Maintenance Experiments Onboard (ROMEO) demonstration of autonomously planning and executing propulsive maneuvers. Large swarms will need to be able to maintain formation requirements with minimal operator involvement, especially as the size of the swarm scales up. Results from the ROMEO experiment are presented. Starling is funded by the Small Spacecraft Technology (SST) program out of NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD).

distributed systems

Purpose, Principles, and Challenges of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center

NASA formed the NASA Engineering and Safety Center in 2003 following the Space Shuttle Columbia accident. It is an Agency level, program-independent engineering resource supporting NASA's missions, programs, and projects. It functions to identify, resolve, and communicate engineering issues, risks, and, particularly, alternative technical opinions, to NASA senior management. The goal is to help ensure fully informed, risk-based programmatic and operational decision-making processes. To date, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) has conducted or is actively working over 600 technical studies and projects, spread across all NASA Mission Directorates, and for various other U.S. Government and non-governmental agencies and organizations. Since inception, NESC human spaceflight related activities, in particular, have transitioned from Shuttle Return-to-Flight and completion of the International Space Station (ISS) to ISS operations and Orion Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), Space Launch System (SLS), and Commercial Crew Program (CCP) vehicle design, integration, test, and certification. This transition has changed the character of NESC studies. For these development programs, the NESC must operate in a broader, system-level design and certification context as compared to the reactive, time-critical, hardware specific nature of flight operations support.

Gilbert, Michael G.

Enhancing Building Energy Efficiency through Advanced Sizing and Dispatch Methods for Energy Storage

Energy storage and electrification of buildings hold great potential for future decarbonization. However, there are several technical and economic barriers that prevent large-scale adoption and integration of energy storage in buildings. These barriers include integration with building control systems, high capital costs, and the necessity to identify and quantify value streams for different stakeholders. To overcome these obstacles, it is crucial to develop advanced sizing and dispatch methods to assist planning and operational decision-making for integrating energy storage in buildings. This work develops simple and flexible optimal sizing and dispatch framework for thermal energy storage (TES) and battery energy storage (BES) systems in large-scale office building. The optimal sizes of TES, BES, as well as other building assets are determined in a joint manner instead of sequentially to avoid sub-optimal solutions. The interaction between the sizing at the planning stage and hourly or sub-hourly dispatch at the operating stage is explicitly modeled. The solution is determined considering both capital costs in optimal sizing and operational benefits in optimal dispatch. Comprehensive assessments are performed using simulation studies to quantify potential energy, economic, and emission benefits by different utility tariffs and climate locations, to improve our understanding of the techno-economic performance of different TES and BES systems, and to identify barriers for adopting energy storage for buildings. Finally, the proposed framework will provide guidance to a broad range of stakeholders to properly design energy storage in buildings and maximizes potential benefits, thereby advancing affordable building energy storage deployment and helping us accelerating the transition towards a cleaner and more equitable energy economy.

Yu, Mingyung

GEONEX: Land Monitoring From a New Generation of Geostationary Satellite Sensors

The latest generation of geostationary satellites carry sensors such as ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager on GOES-16) and the AHI (Advanced Himawari Imager on Himawari) that closely mimic the spatial and spectral characteristics of Earth Observing System flagship MODIS for monitoring land surface conditions. More importantly they provide observations at 5-15 minute intervals. Such high frequency data offer exciting possibilities for producing robust estimates of land surface conditions by overcoming cloud cover, enabling studies of diurnally varying local-to-regional biosphere-atmosphere interactions, and operational decision-making in agriculture, forestry and disaster management. But the data come with challenges that need special attention. For instance, geostationary data feature changing sun angle at constant view for each pixel, which is reciprocal to sun-synchronous observations, and thus require careful adaptation of EOS algorithms. Our goal is to produce a set of land surface products from geostationary sensors by leveraging NASA's investments in EOS algorithms and in the data/compute facility NEX. The land surface variables of interest include atmospherically corrected surface reflectances, snow cover, vegetation indices and leaf area index (LAI)/fraction of photosynthetically absorbed radiation (FPAR), as well as land surface temperature and fires. In order to get ready to produce operational products over the US from GOES-16 starting 2018, we have utilized 18 months of data from Himawari AHI over Australia to test the production pipeline and the performance of various algorithms for our initial tests. The end-to-end processing pipeline consists of a suite of modules to (a) perform calibration and automatic georeference correction of the AHI L1b data, (b) adopt the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm to produce surface spectral reflectances along with compositing schemes and QA, and (c) modify relevant EOS retrieval algorithms (e.g., LAI and FPAR, GPP, etc.) for subsequent science product generation. Initial evaluation of Himawari AHI products against standard MODIS products indicate general agreement, suggesting that data from geostationary sensors can augment low earth orbit (LEO) satellite observations.

geostationary

Spacecraft Materials in the Space Flight Environment: International Space Station - May 2002 to May 2007

The performance of ISS spacecraft materials and systems on prolonged exposure to the low-Earth orbit (LEO) space flight is reported in this paper. In-flight data, flight crew observations, and the results of ground-based test and analysis directly supporting programmatic and operational decision-making are presented. The space flight environments definitions (both natural and induced) used for ISS design, material selection, and verification testing are shown, in most cases, to be more severe than the actual flight environment accounting for the outstanding performance of ISS as a long mission duration spacecraft. No significant ISS material or system failures have been attributed to spacecraft-environments interactions. Nonetheless, ISS materials and systems performance data is contributing to our understanding of spacecraft material interactions in the spaceflight environment so as to reduce cost and risk for future spaceflight projects and programs. Orbital inclination (51.6o) and altitude (nominally near 360 km) determine the set of natural environment factors affecting the functional life of materials and systems on ISS. ISS operates in an electrically conducting environment (the F2 region of Earth s ionosphere) with well-defined fluxes of atomic oxygen, other charged and neutral ionospheric plasma species, solar UV, VUV, and x-ray radiation as well as galactic cosmic rays, trapped radiation, and solar cosmic rays (1-4). The LEO micrometeoroid and orbital debris environment is an especially important determinant of spacecraft design and operations (5, 6). The magnitude of several environmental factors varies dramatically with latitude and longitude as ISS orbits the Earth (1-4). The high latitude orbital environment also exposes ISS to higher fluences of trapped energetic electrons, auroral electrons, solar cosmic rays, and galactic cosmic rays (1-4) than would be the case in lower inclination orbits, largely as a result of the overall shape and magnitude of the geomagnetic field (1-4). As a result, ISS exposure to many environmental factors can vary dramatically along a particular orbital ground track, and from one ground track to the next, during any 24-hour period.

Golden, John

Environmental Effects on ISS Materials Aging (1998 to 2008)

The performance of ISS spacecraft materials and systems on prolonged exposure to the low- Earth orbit (LEO) space flight are reported in this paper. In-flight data, flight crew observations, and the results of ground-based test and analysis directly supporting programmatic and operational decision-making are described. The space flight environments definitions (both natural and induced) used for ISS design, material selection, and verification testing are shown, in most cases, to be more severe than the actual flight environment accounting, in part, for the outstanding performance of ISS as a long mission duration spacecraft. No significant ISS material or system failures have been attributed to spacecraft-environments interactions. Nonetheless, ISS materials and systems performance data is contributing to our understanding of spacecraft material interactions with the spaceflight environment so as to reduce cost and risk for future spaceflight projects and programs. Orbital inclination (51.6 deg) and altitude (nominally near 360 km) determine the set of natural environment factors affecting the functional life of materials and systems on ISS. ISS operates in an electrically conducting environment (the F2 region of Earth s ionosphere) with well-defined fluxes of atomic oxygen, other charged and neutral ionospheric plasma species, solar UV, VUV, and x-ray radiation as well as galactic cosmic rays, trapped radiation, and solar cosmic rays. The LEO micrometeoroid and orbital debris environment is an especially important determinant of spacecraft design and operations. The magnitude of several environmental factors varies dramatically with latitude and longitude as ISS orbits the Earth. The high latitude orbital environment also exposes ISS to higher fluences of trapped energetic electrons, auroral electrons, solar cosmic rays, and galactic cosmic rays than would be the case in lower inclination orbits, largely as a result of the overall shape and magnitude of the geomagnetic field. As a result, ISS exposure to many environmental factors can vary dramatically along a particular orbital ground track, and from one ground track to the next, during any 24-hour period. The induced environment results from ISS interactions with the natural environment as well as environmental factors produced by ISS itself and visiting vehicles fleet. Examples include ram-wake effects, hypergolic thruster plume impingement, materials out-gassing, venting and dumping of fluids, and specific photovoltaic (PV) power system interactions with the ionospheric plasma (7-11). Vehicle size (L) and velocity (V), combined with the magnitude and direction of the geomagnetic field (B) produce operationally significant magnetic induction voltages (VxB.L) in ISS conducting structure during flight through high latitudes (> +45deg) during each orbit. Finally, an induced ionizing radiation environment is produced by cosmic ray interaction with the relatively thick ISS structure and shielding materials. The intent of this review article is, therefore, to provide a summary of selected aspects and elements of the ISS vehicle with regard to LEO space environment effects, associated with the much larger and more complicated vehicle that ISS has become since 1998, but also with an eye towards performance life extension to the year 2016 and beyond.

Alred, John